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They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.", "page_category": "author" }, "restrictions": { "name_withdrawn": false, "tracker_number": null, "withdrawn_quotes": [], "removed_at": null, "cause": null, "suspended_records": [], "withdrawal_log_number": 0 }, "page_links": { "methodology": "/methodology/", "right_of_reply": "/right-of-reply/", "source_coverage": "/coverage/", "corrections_log": "/corrections/", "api": "/api/", "claim": "/claim/" }, "entity": { "id": "e-f53d438234e09d356703ea51", "public_name": "Tom Gott", "tracker_number": 1580, "status": "active", "inactive_since": null, "verified_creator": false, "observation_period": { "since": "2026-09-28", "until": "2026-09-30" }, "platform_list": [ { "medium": "website", "handle": null, "url": null, "link_confirmed": false, "show": true } ], "comment": null }, "headline_number": { "metric": { "metric_id": "p-e-f53d438234e09d356703ea51-roi-market-price-90d-z99", "code_name": "roi_market_price", "display_name": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot", "window_kind": "90d", "window_from": "2026-08-09", "window_to": "2026-11-07", "amount": null, "unit": "percent", "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "no pick in this window has been settled", "n_bets": 0, "n_events": 0, "n_void": null, "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "ci_method": "not_estimated", "price_source": "market_price", "coverage_percent": null, "breakdown": [], "methodology_version": "2.2", "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "enough_for_ranking": false, "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot" }, "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 0 settled picks across 0 matches", "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, "metrics": [], "history": [], "simulation": { "series_key": null, "series_label": "No level stake placed", "bankroll_hundredths": 1000000, "reserve_hundredths": 0, "issued_total_hundredths": 1000000, "initial_hundredths": 1000000, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "top_up_count": 0, "profit_hundredths": 0, "rewards_off": null, "data_points": [], "top_ups": [], "rule": "Every tracked author starts with 10,000 points and stakes 100 per qualifying pick. 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"our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "found_post_match", "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2025-12-09T03:00:00.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2025-12-09T03:00:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-30T16:00:28.508Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "found_after_match", "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-9c67618f67422330693cccbe", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-9c67618f67422330693cccbe", "quote_text": "It is abundantly clear that you can never know what you are going to get from either of these sides", "fragment_from": 4128, "fragment_to": 4227, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.si.com/soccer/atalanta-vs-chelsea-preview-predictions-lineups-champions-league-12-9-25", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Tom Gott", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "836aee1e0690c53e3281b95cdb32a818e0091dc74aa0179978ac153e79eb46e9", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2025-12-09T03:00:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-30T16:00:28.508Z", "executed_at": 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[], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "found_after_match", "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-f8bfc3482ceda3cbdc6dfd78", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-f8bfc3482ceda3cbdc6dfd78", "quote_text": "The positive news for Chelsea is the expected return of midfielder Moisés Caicedo.", "fragment_from": 3407, "fragment_to": 3489, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": 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The statements are listed below; as of 7 November 2026.", "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/tom-gott/", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": null }, "origin": { "contract_version": "1", "predictions": 15, "under_review": 0, "no_match_linked": 0, "proven_predictions": 14, "proven_checked": 14, "proven_measured": 14, "proven_dates": 5, "parts": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.", "predictions": 0, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "series_code": "market_price", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null }, { "code": "archived", "title": "Archived before kick-off", "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.", "predictions": 14, "checked": 14, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 14, "exact_hits": 1, "exact_rate": 7.1, "outcome_checked": 14, "outcome_hits": 4, "outcome_rate": 28.6, "baseline_matches": 14, "baseline_distinct_matches": 14, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 4, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": 28.6, "favourite_hits": 5, "favourite_rate": 35.7, "price_basis": "last pre-match archive price", "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [ "Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.", "1 of 14 score forecasts named the exact score (7.1%).", "The result implied by the named score was right in 4 of 14 matches; the market favourite was right in 5 of the same 14 matches.", "The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off).", "The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win)." ] }, "eligible": { "checked": 14, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null }, { "code": "found_after", "title": "Found after the match", "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.", "predictions": 1, "checked": 1, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 1, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": 0.0, "outcome_checked": 1, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": 0.0, "baseline_matches": 1, "baseline_distinct_matches": 1, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": 0.0, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": 0.0, "price_basis": "last pre-match archive price", "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [ "Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to this score forecast.", "0 of 1 score forecast named the exact score.", "The result implied by the named score was right in 0 of 1 match; the market favourite was right in 0 of the same match.", "The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off).", "The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win).", "These forecasts were found after the match; when they were made depends on the date the source gives." ] }, "eligible": { "checked": 1, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null } ] }, "live_alongside": null, "headline_record_ids": [], "caption": "Recorded statements and predictions · as of 7 November 2026", "record_from": "2025-12-09", "record_to": "2026-04-13" }, "recorded_picks": [ { "record_id": "n-8a7b25fb1fac3bbd43de4e10", "url": null, "match": "Manchester United v Leeds United", "match_url": null, "kickoff": "2026-04-13T19:00:00.000Z", "competition": 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