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in a row · 5 Nov", "body": "5 matches in a row, every pick correct · 31 Oct–5 Nov 2026", "tier": null, "provenance": "live", "anchor_id": "title-5ae06b54f670", "event_at": "2026-11-05", "url": "/titles/s-01-correct-run/#zk-5ae06b54f670be667099" }, { "title_id": "zk-668a08dc784a217ff977", "code_name": "S-01", "title_tier": "dated_record", "badge_label": "4 right in a row · 25 Oct", "body": "4 matches in a row, every pick correct · 22 Oct–25 Oct 2026", "tier": null, "provenance": "live", "anchor_id": "title-668a08dc784a", "event_at": "2026-10-25", "url": "/titles/s-01-correct-run/#zk-668a08dc784a217ff977" } ], "record_origin": [], "recent_record": [ { "code_name": "S-01", "body": "5 matches in a row, every pick correct · 31 Oct–5 Nov 2026", "event_at": "2026-11-05", "url": null, "provenance": "live", "anchor_id": "title-5ae06b54f670" }, { "code_name": "S-01", "body": "4 matches in a row, every pick correct · 22 Oct–25 Oct 2026", "event_at": "2026-10-25", "url": null, "provenance": "live", "anchor_id": "title-668a08dc784a" } ], "record_details": [], "history": [] }, "retro": null, "late": null, "price_vs_market": { "contract_version": "1", "threshold_percent": "5", "rows": [ { "basis": "snapshot", "basis_words": "our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off)", "basis_short": "Our market price when we first recorded the pick", "compared": 16, "above": 0, "above_share_percent": "0.0", "below": 7, "within": 9, "median_difference_percent": "-4.0", "not_comparable": 0, "disputed": 0, "status": "calculated" } ], "examples": [ { "url": "/authors/tiago-almeida/picks/7/#pick-n-4cafb4de2ceec51eaa402d2b", "basis": "snapshot", "stated": "1.45", "market": "2.50", "difference_percent": "-42.0" }, { "url": "/authors/tiago-almeida/picks/2/#pick-n-0033daf2829155dc45932d49", "basis": "snapshot", "stated": "1.83", "market": "2.00", "difference_percent": "-8.5" } ], "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way." }, "record_summary": { "contract_version": "1", "entity_type": "person", "entity_words": "Individual author", "source": { "name": "sportytrader.pt", "url": "https://www.sportytrader.pt/prognosticos/fc-colonia-bayer-leverkusen-386203/" }, "observed_from": "2026-10-11", "observed_to": "2026-11-07", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "state": "settled", "series_code": "market_price", "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price", "restored": false, "headline_kind": "live_snapshot", "headline_part": "live", "settled_picks": 15, "matches": 12, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": 76987, "staked_hundredths": 150000, "return_percent": "51.32", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "period_from": "2026-10-11", "period_to": "2026-11-05", "status": "calculated", "method_version": "2.2", "short_history": true, "reason": null, "reasons": [], "sentence": "Forecast Record recorded 15 settled live picks by Tiago Almeida before kick-off across 12 matches between 11 October and 5 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned +51.3% on the total staked. Of the 152 predictions we hold for Tiago Almeida, 27 are linked to matches: 27 were recorded by us before kick-off. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "numbers": [ { "label": "Settled live picks", "value": "15", "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick", "note": null }, { "label": "Matches", "value": "12", "anchor": "/methodology/#match", "note": null }, { "label": "Net result", "value": "+769.87 points", "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement", "note": "100 points per pick" }, { "label": "Return at our recorded market price", "value": "+51.3%", "anchor": "/methodology/#roi", "note": "95% interval +8.9% to +95.7%" } ], "limitations": [], "other_series": [], "return_over_time": [ { "date": "2026-10-11", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 6250, "n": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-15", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -3750, "n": 2 }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 2744, "n": 5 }, { "date": "2026-10-22", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 7744, "n": 6 }, { "date": "2026-10-24", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 31744, "n": 7 }, { "date": "2026-10-25", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 38444, "n": 8 }, { "date": "2026-10-27", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 28444, "n": 9 }, { "date": "2026-10-29", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 34542, "n": 10 }, { "date": "2026-10-31", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 66787, "n": 13 }, { "date": "2026-11-05", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 76987, "n": 15 } ], "return_over_time_parts": { "live": { "part": "live", "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "x_axis": "match_date", "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.", "settled_picks": 15, "matches": 12, "match_dates": 10, "period_from": "2026-10-11", "period_to": "2026-11-05", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "final_points_hundredths": 76987, "low": { "date": "2026-10-15", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -3750, "after_picks": 2 }, "high": { "date": "2026-11-05", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 76987, "after_picks": 15 }, "line_drawn": true, "steps": [ { "date": "2026-10-11", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 6250, "n": 1, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-15", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -3750, "n": 2, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 2744, "n": 5, "picks": 3 }, { "date": "2026-10-22", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 7744, "n": 6, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-24", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 31744, "n": 7, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-25", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 38444, "n": 8, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-27", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 28444, "n": 9, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-29", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 34542, "n": 10, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-31", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 66787, "n": 13, "picks": 3 }, { "date": "2026-11-05", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 76987, "n": 15, "picks": 2 } ] }, "archived": null }, "author_response": null, "cite": { "text": "Forecast Record recorded 15 settled live picks by Tiago Almeida before kick-off across 12 matches between 11 October and 5 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned +51.3% on the total staked. Of the 152 predictions we hold for Tiago Almeida, 27 are linked to matches: 27 were recorded by us before kick-off. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/tiago-almeida/", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "2.2" }, "origin": { "contract_version": "1", "predictions": 152, "under_review": 0, "no_match_linked": 125, "proven_predictions": 27, "proven_checked": 26, "proven_measured": 15, "proven_dates": 14, "parts": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.", "predictions": 27, "checked": 26, "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "series_code": "market_price", "main": { "settled_picks": 15, "void": 0, "matches": 12, "net_points_hundredths": 76987, "staked_hundredths": 150000, "return_percent": "51.32", "interval_low": "8.87", "interval_high": "95.65", "interval_note": null, "period_from": "2026-10-11", "period_to": "2026-11-05", "method_version": "2.2", "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0", "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.0", "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 2 }, "same_picks": [ { "price": "Author-quoted price", "series_code": "author_price", "picks": 15, "return_main_percent": "51.32", "return_other_percent": "41.33", "settled_excluding_void": 15, "net_main_points_hundredths": 76987, "net_other_points_hundredths": 62000, "period_from": "2026-10-11", "period_to": "2026-11-05" }, { "price": "Closing price", "series_code": "closing_live", "picks": 10, "return_main_percent": "58.54", "return_other_percent": "48.37", "settled_excluding_void": 10, "net_main_points_hundredths": 58543, "net_other_points_hundredths": 48371, "period_from": "2026-10-11", "period_to": "2026-10-31" } ], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 26, "priced": 15 }, "accuracy": { "picks": 15, "won": 12, "won_percent": "80.0", "implied_percent": "56.8", "left_out": 0, "by_market": [ { "market": "Match result", "won": 8, "picks": 8, "implied_percent": "58.1" }, { "market": "Both teams to score", "won": 1, "picks": 2, "implied_percent": "65.7" }, { "market": "Over/under goals", "won": 1, "picks": 2, "implied_percent": "45.0" }, { "market": "Result and both teams to score", "won": 1, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "46.0" }, { "market": "Result and total goals", "won": 0, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "59.2" }, { "market": "Team goals", "won": 1, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "60.6" } ] }, "reviewed_after": { "predictions": 4, "right": 4, "wrong": 0, "other": 0 } }, { "code": "archived", "title": "Archived before kick-off", "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.", "predictions": 0, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null }, { "code": "found_after", "title": "Found after the match", "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.", "predictions": 0, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null } ] }, "live_alongside": null, "headline_record_ids": [ "n-0033daf2829155dc45932d49", "n-04b2a749de5c93396b4c42d1", "n-147e879245d16d68c7bc2b28", "n-1931cbe8c71abbce84568bd2", "n-26dc7787d4edeff74af8264e", "n-4584a93096a19a6dea652dd4", "n-4753f09e176df24ea7ee0ba1", "n-4cafb4de2ceec51eaa402d2b", "n-5e3867dba92ef0a3d596d895", "n-64acda51c4bb9f06cbaddbee", "n-7717a9fc04864831b15acf9c", "n-b9d227ef90776452dd04f811", "n-be67c0f9a2aa8cd7a959ae38", "n-cd896b7c096f751ebf2e5b30", "n-dab61e3ec0e1a0fd38f35287" ], "interval_low": "8.87", "interval_high": "95.65", "caption": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price · 100 points per pick · 11 October – 5 November 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under method v2.2", "record_from": "2026-10-11", "record_to": "2026-11-07" }, "recorded_picks": [ { "record_id": "n-7717a9fc04864831b15acf9c", "url": "/authors/tiago-almeida/picks/8/#pick-n-7717a9fc04864831b15acf9c", "match": "Panathinaikos v CSKA Sofia", "match_url": "/football/matches/panathinaikos-vs-cska-sofia-2026-11-05/", "kickoff": "2026-11-05T20:00:00.000Z", "competition": "UEFA Conference League", "lead_hours": 40.2, "market_code": "1x2", "author_said": "1X2, match result: Panathinaikos at 1.46", "quote": null, "group": "settled", "outcome": "Won", "claim_outcome": "Won", "final_score": "2-1", "reason": null, "reason_code": null, "points_hundredths": 4600, "series_code": "market_price", "series_short": "odds snapshot", "author_price": "1.46", "settled_price": "1.4600", "published_at": null, "recorded_at": "2026-11-04T03:49:50.756Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": true, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": { "outcome": "1", "price": "1.4600", "result": "Won", "points_hundredths": 4600, "picked_favourite": true }, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-7717a9fc04864831b15acf9c", "quote_text": "Panathinaikos AC vence\n\n1.46", "fragment_from": 10920, "fragment_to": 10948, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.sportytrader.pt/prognosticos/panathinaikos-ac-cska-sofia-385198/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Tiago Almeida", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "bce883b649b69b243af22c00614e9178e5fa50e5b127ac7dbcdd2997c1b9c7c4", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-11-04T03:49:50.756Z", "executed_at": "2026-11-04T03:58:41.063Z", "statement_class": "priced", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": "s-8ce491096970", "display_name": "Panathinaikos — CSKA Sofia", "competition_name": "UEFA Conference League", "starts_at": "2026-11-05T20:00:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/panathinaikos-vs-cska-sofia-2026-11-05/", "scoreline": "2-1", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "outcome_label": "Panathinaikos", "odds_set": { "by_author": "1.46", "our_snapshot": "1.4600", "our_snapshot_at": "2026-11-04T03:47:19.695Z", "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot", "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "win", "simulation_change_hundredths": 4600, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": "ours", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": null, "fragment_basis": "no", "source_page_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-11-04T03:49:50.756Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [ "no_date" ], "flag_words": "The source states no publication date.", "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "1X2, match result", "choice": "Panathinaikos", "author_odds": "1.46", "market_key": "1x2", "choice_key": "1", "period": "match", "line": null, "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "1X2, match result: Panathinaikos at 1.46" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "win", "scoreline": "2-1", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Won: the final score was Panathinaikos 2-1 CSKA Sofia." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "9cc9549427840427d86ddf391c4962a7ca8d4a4331c83669f0327fa0e6127533", "series_key": "author_price", "series_label": "At the author's stated price", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "choice": 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no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-fbe2393111f4fe17ef4af396", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "O prognóstico :\n\nX2 e menos de 4,5\n\n1.62", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": null, "recorded_at": "2026-11-05T03:20:15.261Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-9f7124e04f41780ec6dd177e", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Twente vence 2.ª parte\n\n1.53", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": null, "recorded_at": "2026-11-04T03:20:08.760Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-cc060f86b51cbf209ad9fe2e", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "O nosso prognóstico Copenhaga - Iberia: Copenhaga vence & não marcam ambas\n\nO prognóstico :\n\nFC Copenhaga vence & não marcam ambas\n\n1.78", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "ambiguous", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": null, "recorded_at": "2026-11-04T03:20:06.245Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-48a0e083c06fdf6f659dc671", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "O nosso prognóstico Trabzonspor - Freiburg: Mais de 2,5\n\nO prognóstico :\n\nMais de 2.5 golos\n\n1.40", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": null, "recorded_at": "2026-11-03T18:19:56.550Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; 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no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-43a863a329afb81f65cd8cbd", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "1X e mais de 1,5 golos\n\n1.50", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": null, "recorded_at": "2026-10-30T19:29:58.156Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-14983618ee55665b09140cc3", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "O prognóstico :\n\n1X e mais de 1,5 golos\n\n1.50", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": null, "recorded_at": "2026-10-30T19:29:58.156Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-e16b4ea0ad414f196b1b6efb", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Prognósticos alternativos para o Casa Pia AC - Sporting\n\nSporting vence\n\nOdd\n1.25", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": null, "recorded_at": "2026-10-28T20:30:25.534Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-ebcf7b5fda76d9bbd05ae216", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "O nosso prognóstico Casa Pia AC - Sporting CP: Mais de 2,5\n\nO prognóstico :\n\nMais de 2.5 golos\n\n1.48", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": null, "recorded_at": "2026-10-28T20:30:25.534Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-59397bb70cbb24edf193512a", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Mais de 2.5 golos\n\n1.38", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "ambiguous", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": null, "recorded_at": "2026-10-27T19:59:42.520Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-2b334b9739e9d4f90ff4d0f4", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "prevemos um Benfica competitivo, claramente a colocar em sentido esta equipa inglesa, que está muito longe do seu melhor nível. Acreditamos num bom jogo das águias, o suficiente para não perder…", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": null, "recorded_at": "2026-10-26T23:09:45.747Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-7b27d0af2729c2b10b53a05d", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Benfica (+2,5) handicap\n\n1.47", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": null, "recorded_at": "2026-10-26T23:09:45.747Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-48eca74790d391cd21083577", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Bayer vence intervalo/final\n\n1.44", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": null, "recorded_at": "2026-10-26T19:59:38.828Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-c10bf389ab392dc4044d5a8d", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "X2 e mais de 1,5 golos\n\n1.45", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": null, "recorded_at": "2026-10-26T02:09:16.548Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; 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no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-6750fe2fcd024b1f23f9b0f4", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Brentford ou empate & mais de 1,5\n\n1.65", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": null, "recorded_at": "2026-10-16T00:29:29.794Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-bf7ce3b2d89b79a532a74deb", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Man City vence & mais de 2,5\n\n1.55", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": null, "recorded_at": "2026-10-15T18:29:31.424Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-3339d1e9b714d485e56f74ff", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Man City vence & mais de 2,5\n\n1.55", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": null, "recorded_at": "2026-10-15T18:29:31.424Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-fc27ae05e966709f47ef8565", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Assim, de uma forma ou de outra, esperamos golos em Liverpool.", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "ambiguous", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": null, "recorded_at": "2026-10-15T11:39:30.854Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-1dbde19d591e9de904fbde80", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "acreditamos que o mercado dos golos e o \"over 2,5\" também se adapta a essa inconsistência defensiva demonstrada pelos londrinos neste arranque de temporada 2026/27.", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "ambiguous", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": null, "recorded_at": "2026-10-15T11:39:30.854Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-2aacb947e4f5f45e55135f27", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "O nosso prognóstico Le Mans-Toulouse: Empate\n\nO prognóstico :\n\nEmpate\n\n3.20", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": null, "recorded_at": "2026-10-15T02:49:31.781Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; 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no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-d83536b111f34dab8cfed943", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Udinese ou empate & Abaixo de 3,5\n\n1.77", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": null, "recorded_at": "2026-10-11T03:01:07.472Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-f0c03d1a13b4e4aac6ecbed0", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "O prognóstico :\n\nAtalanta vence ou empata & abaixo de 3,5\n\n1.73", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": null, "recorded_at": "2026-10-11T03:01:06.499Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-84bf094aad64854ce6f402c4", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "X2 e menos de 3,5 golos\n\n1.41", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": null, "recorded_at": "2026-10-11T02:42:01.851Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-272daf6b6666692e85f6ab72", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "X2 e mais de 1,5\n\n1.4", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": null, "recorded_at": "2026-10-11T02:01:11.337Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-14cbe61a5b6be9f196a1da13", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Roma não perde & mais de 1,5\n\n1.74", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": null, "recorded_at": "2026-10-11T02:01:10.933Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null } ], "lead_time": { "contract_version": 1, "threshold_hours": 2.0, "picks": 27, "before_kickoff": 27, "after_kickoff": 0, "at_least_2h": 27, "share_2h_plus": 100.0, "median_hours": 41.3, "min_hours": 10.8, "max_hours": 47.8, "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off." }, "baseline": { "contract_version": 1, "series_code": "market_price", "rule": "recorded-line-1.0", "state": "settled", "picks": 8, "settled_picks_all": 15, "excluded": { "market_without_favourite": 3, "no_recorded_line": 4, "favourite_not_settled": 0 }, "staked_hundredths": 80000, "author_net_hundredths": 52150, "favourite_net_hundredths": 36150, "difference_hundredths": 16000, "author_return_percent": 65.19, "favourite_return_percent": 45.19, "author_hit_rate": 87.5, "favourite_hit_rate": 87.5, "picked_favourite_share": 75.0, "by_market": [ { "market_code": "1x2", "picks": 7, "staked_hundredths": 70000, "author_net_hundredths": 62150, "favourite_net_hundredths": 28150, "author_hits": 7, "favourite_hits": 6, "picked_favourite": 6, "author_return_percent": 88.79, "favourite_return_percent": 40.21 }, { "market_code": "total", "picks": 1, "staked_hundredths": 10000, "author_net_hundredths": -10000, "favourite_net_hundredths": 8000, "author_hits": 0, "favourite_hits": 1, "picked_favourite": 0, "author_return_percent": -100.0, "favourite_return_percent": 80.0 } ], "return_over_time": [ { "kickoff": "2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 6250, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 6250 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -3750, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 14250 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 6250, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 24250 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 11250, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 29250 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 35250, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 19250 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-25T19:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 41950, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 25950 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-05T20:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 46550, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 30550 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-05T20:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 52150, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 36150 } ], "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out." }, "pagination": { "per_page": 20, "total": 152, "pages": 9, "page_urls": [ "/authors/tiago-almeida/", "/authors/tiago-almeida/picks/2/", "/authors/tiago-almeida/picks/3/", "/authors/tiago-almeida/picks/4/", "/authors/tiago-almeida/picks/5/", "/authors/tiago-almeida/picks/6/", "/authors/tiago-almeida/picks/7/", "/authors/tiago-almeida/picks/8/", "/authors/tiago-almeida/picks/9/" ], "groups": { "settled": 16, "pending": 1, "excluded": 135 }, "continuation": "by_time", "page": 1, "first": 1, "last": 20, "author_url": "/authors/tiago-almeida/", "current": false }, "title_tag": "Tiago Almeida Predictions: Verified Record, Results and Sources", "calculator": null, "person": { "person_id": "o-3d6339f21ab1f8a25073d82b", "type_code": "individual", "name_shown": "Tiago Almeida", "main_entity": "e-3d6339f21ab1f8a25073d82b", "identity": { "status": "not_verified", "is_verified": false, "when": null, "source_list": [] }, "platform_list": [ { "entity_ref": "e-3d6339f21ab1f8a25073d82b", "medium": "SportyTrader PT", "channel": "section pages", "domain": "sportytrader.pt", "source_info": "sportytrader-pt", "byline": "Tiago Almeida", "url": "/sources/sportytrader-pt/", "summary": { "statements": 700, "predictions": 152, "settled_picks": 15, "headline_kind": "live_snapshot", "return_percent": 51.32, "headline_part": "live", "period_from": "2026-10-11", "period_to": "2026-11-07" } } ], "previously": [], "trust_tier": "probation" }, "data_revision": { "data_version": "2026-11-07.2", "updated": "2026-11-07", "current_release": "2026-11-07.2", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "2.2", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "series_code": "market_price", "sample": { "settled_picks": 15, "matches": 12, "void": 0, "period_from": "2026-10-11", "period_to": "2026-11-05", "composition_hash": "48623c46e1e1a703ea1f5f3a7cb98f48a9d8c703f46703edef6e279902f71f5f" }, "changes_url": "#changes", "corrections_url": "/corrections/" }, "number_changes": [ { "id": "zc-3e34299e6e77aef52d2b", "at": "2026-11-07T20:05:20.937Z", "data_version": "2026-11-07.2", "previous_data_version": "2026-11-07.1", "url": "/authors/tiago-almeida/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-11-06.1", "return_percent": "62.22", "settled_picks": 13, "matches": 11, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "6e350a0630c8271dae86749faed8183cffc84048b1ab1da7f49d5bc0aea1a765", "text": "+62.22% on 13 settled picks across 11 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-11-07.2", "return_percent": "51.32", "settled_picks": 15, "matches": 12, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "48623c46e1e1a703ea1f5f3a7cb98f48a9d8c703f46703edef6e279902f71f5f", "text": "+51.32% on 15 settled picks across 12 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 2, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-88fb710789f88d62936e", "at": "2026-11-06T14:46:17.511Z", "data_version": "2026-11-06.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-11-05.3", "url": "/authors/tiago-almeida/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-11-01.1", "return_percent": "64.26", "settled_picks": 11, "matches": 9, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "579ea8e4a10a4aa7e677317abf8bfed792ff6810e82f0cb4abb576b8d25e3879", "text": "+64.26% on 11 settled picks across 9 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-11-06.1", "return_percent": "62.22", "settled_picks": 13, "matches": 11, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "6e350a0630c8271dae86749faed8183cffc84048b1ab1da7f49d5bc0aea1a765", "text": "+62.22% on 13 settled picks across 11 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "2 new settled picks from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 2, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-adbb8b3b7dc9cff2c313", "at": "2026-11-01T06:32:40.816Z", "data_version": "2026-11-01.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-31.2", "url": "/authors/tiago-almeida/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-31.2", "return_percent": "58.94", "settled_picks": 10, "matches": 8, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "a907df05186c7299d57bad142f56247f4425714c2b3e2f6dce5f4a2062106865", "text": "+58.94% on 10 settled picks across 8 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-11-01.1", "return_percent": "64.26", "settled_picks": 11, "matches": 9, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "579ea8e4a10a4aa7e677317abf8bfed792ff6810e82f0cb4abb576b8d25e3879", "text": "+64.26% on 11 settled picks across 9 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-9d88767ac70f23aa18d0", "at": "2026-10-31T21:01:38.334Z", "data_version": "2026-10-31.2", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-31.1", "url": "/authors/tiago-almeida/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-28.1", "return_percent": "48.05", "settled_picks": 8, "matches": 7, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "78a97af26e9395166b1e37edf168ca9a8b333771712323593b60c973adf1b1c4", "text": "+384.44 points on 8 settled picks across 7 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-31.2", "return_percent": "58.94", "settled_picks": 10, "matches": 8, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "a907df05186c7299d57bad142f56247f4425714c2b3e2f6dce5f4a2062106865", "text": "+58.94% on 10 settled picks across 8 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "2 new settled picks from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 2, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-ec55edf9d7ad0a694027", "at": "2026-10-28T01:24:12.367Z", "data_version": "2026-10-28.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-27.3", "url": "/authors/tiago-almeida/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-27.1", "return_percent": "69.21", "settled_picks": 7, "matches": 6, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "2dbd7e5dccc44b43a5e91a071d66a83ab323c67e2e8ead10f4424b889e22382d", "text": "+484.44 points on 7 settled picks across 6 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-28.1", "return_percent": "48.05", "settled_picks": 8, "matches": 7, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "78a97af26e9395166b1e37edf168ca9a8b333771712323593b60c973adf1b1c4", "text": "+384.44 points on 8 settled picks across 7 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-e1549af63409583cc23b", "at": "2026-10-27T07:47:02.386Z", "data_version": "2026-10-27.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-26.1", "url": "/authors/tiago-almeida/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-24.5", "return_percent": "69.57", "settled_picks": 6, "matches": 5, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "27476f824e727509592b64c2b88807796f47df836222620a2b2b6c3c745d49ce", "text": "+417.44 points on 6 settled picks across 5 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-27.1", "return_percent": "69.21", "settled_picks": 7, "matches": 6, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "2dbd7e5dccc44b43a5e91a071d66a83ab323c67e2e8ead10f4424b889e22382d", "text": "+484.44 points on 7 settled picks across 6 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-13c9da595e5b34af586a", "at": "2026-10-25T01:37:51.007Z", "data_version": "2026-10-24.5", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-24.4", "url": "/authors/tiago-almeida/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-22.6", "return_percent": "35.49", "settled_picks": 5, "matches": 4, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "065688588fc850b7c5bb71e950a6da1d0a245efa2ca91f0e8b7ddc97578445c7", "text": "+177.44 points on 5 settled picks across 4 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-24.5", "return_percent": "69.57", "settled_picks": 6, "matches": 5, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "27476f824e727509592b64c2b88807796f47df836222620a2b2b6c3c745d49ce", "text": "+417.44 points on 6 settled picks across 5 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-1d599ec8c79881aacbfe", "at": "2026-10-22T22:37:17.307Z", "data_version": "2026-10-22.6", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-22.5", "url": "/authors/tiago-almeida/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-21.3", "return_percent": "31.86", "settled_picks": 4, "matches": 3, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "d3db3fc145b8d2d5b0c08bc3828043912c6290b0ab77078ef31333895da44c99", "text": "+127.44 points on 4 settled picks across 3 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-22.6", "return_percent": "35.49", "settled_picks": 5, "matches": 4, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "065688588fc850b7c5bb71e950a6da1d0a245efa2ca91f0e8b7ddc97578445c7", "text": "+177.44 points on 5 settled picks across 4 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-77d81cce09cdf54040f6", "at": "2026-10-21T22:08:07.744Z", "data_version": "2026-10-21.3", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-21.2", "url": "/authors/tiago-almeida/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-19.6", "return_percent": "-18.75", "settled_picks": 2, "matches": 2, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "1d0efa639f00824849d05fa0f5a098698833139a0340a6bd7afa2caf9c49e141", "text": "−37.50 points on 2 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-21.3", "return_percent": "31.86", "settled_picks": 4, "matches": 3, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "d3db3fc145b8d2d5b0c08bc3828043912c6290b0ab77078ef31333895da44c99", "text": "+127.44 points on 4 settled picks across 3 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "2 new settled picks from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 2, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-406fd9696e13fca92727", "at": "2026-10-19T19:39:27.559Z", "data_version": "2026-10-19.6", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-19.5", "url": "/authors/tiago-almeida/", "category": "data_corrected", "category_words": "Data corrected", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-17.4", "return_percent": "-26.93", "settled_picks": 4, "matches": 3, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "7813d56b3a3d91d256e46ec811bcbd7a41ce3c6538ea1c2f629f75e7702df3ce", "text": "−107.74 points on 4 settled picks across 3 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-19.6", "return_percent": "-18.75", "settled_picks": 2, "matches": 2, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "1d0efa639f00824849d05fa0f5a098698833139a0340a6bd7afa2caf9c49e141", "text": "−37.50 points on 2 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Data corrected: 2 picks left the headline sample.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 0, "removed": 2, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": "i-c4c999a740d86fa30141" }, { "id": "zc-75042c0bd362e06c3b35", "at": "2026-10-17T20:13:03.224Z", "data_version": "2026-10-17.4", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-17.3", "url": "/authors/tiago-almeida/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-15.7", "return_percent": "-18.75", "settled_picks": 2, "matches": 2, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "1d0efa639f00824849d05fa0f5a098698833139a0340a6bd7afa2caf9c49e141", "text": "−37.50 points on 2 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-17.4", "return_percent": "-26.93", "settled_picks": 4, "matches": 3, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "7813d56b3a3d91d256e46ec811bcbd7a41ce3c6538ea1c2f629f75e7702df3ce", "text": "−107.74 points on 4 settled picks across 3 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "2 new settled picks from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 2, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-a28285e3f3199ead1898", "at": "2026-10-15T19:51:34.525Z", "data_version": "2026-10-15.7", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-15.6", "url": "/authors/tiago-almeida/", "category": "data_corrected", "category_words": "Data corrected", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-11.6", "return_percent": "62.50", "settled_picks": 1, "matches": 1, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "31cdc9cfb226c6f8e02b02c032366cd943289c5fbaacb4fcb257cbb79862d496", "text": "+62.50 points on 1 settled pick across 1 match · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-15.7", "return_percent": "-18.75", "settled_picks": 2, "matches": 2, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "1d0efa639f00824849d05fa0f5a098698833139a0340a6bd7afa2caf9c49e141", "text": "−37.50 points on 2 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Data corrected: line sign (1 pick); 1 pick added.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": "i-033abd5a0639de648921" }, { "id": "zc-b2972e6920ec35c3efcd", "at": "2026-10-11T19:38:24.634Z", "data_version": "2026-10-11.6", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-11.5", "url": "/authors/tiago-almeida/", "category": "method_changed", "category_words": "Method changed", "before": null, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-11.6", "return_percent": "62.50", "settled_picks": 1, "matches": 1, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "31cdc9cfb226c6f8e02b02c032366cd943289c5fbaacb4fcb257cbb79862d496", "text": "+62.50 points on 1 settled pick across 1 match · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Method 2.2 (11 October 2026): the live market price of a pick is now the price at the moment we first recorded it (median of bookmakers in our price feed, quote no older than 5 minutes; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, before kick-off), not the price when our checks admitted it. Picks recorded before kick-off but checked after it are now settled the same way; picks with no price at that moment have no return. First headline number for this record: 1 settled pick.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": "i-f61b781c76ed332871dc" } ], "counts_by_slice": { "portions": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "settled_picks": 15, "total_check": true, "market_list": [ { "code_name": "1x2", "in_words": "Match result", "url": null, "settled_picks": 8, "won": 8, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": 67645, "return_percent": "84.6", "period_from": "2026-10-11", "period_to": "2026-11-05", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "1.81", "odds_from_author": 8, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 }, { "code_name": "both_teams_score", "in_words": "Both teams to score", "url": null, "settled_picks": 2, "won": 1, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -3902, "return_percent": "-19.5", "period_from": "2026-10-21", "period_to": "2026-10-29", "small_sample": true, 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