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 "heading": "Stefano Scorrano: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "Verified record: 28 settled picks by Stefano Scorrano recorded before kick-off across 28 matches, 11 Oct 2026 – 7 Nov 2026.",
 "first_paragraph": {
  "body": "Forecast Record recorded 28 settled live picks by Stefano Scorrano before kick-off across 28 matches between 11 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −4.3% on the total staked. Of the 84 predictions we hold for Stefano Scorrano, 55 are linked to matches: 51 were recorded by us before kick-off and 4 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "key_number": "−4.3%",
  "data": "2026-11-07",
  "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot",
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 "data_date": "2026-11-07T18:44:30.209Z",
 "built_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
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 "modules": {
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  "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.",
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 "entity": {
  "id": "e-a047fa40c3d9cfcb8434c960",
  "public_name": "Stefano Scorrano",
  "tracker_number": 2890,
  "status": "active",
  "inactive_since": null,
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  "observation_period": {
   "since": "2026-10-11",
   "until": "2026-11-06"
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    "medium": "website",
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 "headline_number": {
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   "code_name": "roi_market_price",
   "display_name": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot",
   "window_kind": "90d",
   "window_from": "2026-08-09",
   "window_to": "2026-11-07",
   "amount": "-4.2611",
   "unit": "percent",
   "data_status": "calculated",
   "cause": null,
   "n_bets": 28,
   "n_events": 28,
   "n_void": 0,
   "ci_low": "-35.2268",
   "ci_high": "26.2886",
   "ci_method": "cluster_bootstrap",
   "price_source": "market_price",
   "coverage_percent": "100.00",
   "breakdown": [],
   "methodology_version": "2.2",
   "data_date": "2026-11-07T18:44:30.209Z",
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   "series_uid": null,
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  "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 28 settled picks across 28 matches",
  "average_odds": "1.79",
  "odds_from_author": 28,
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  "bankroll_hundredths": 988069,
  "reserve_hundredths": 20000,
  "issued_total_hundredths": 1000000,
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  "rewards_off": null,
  "initial_hundredths": 1000000,
  "stake_hundredths": 10000,
  "data_points": [
   {
    "at": "2026-10-11T15:11:30.711Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 990000,
    "profit_hundredths": -10000,
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   {
    "at": "2026-10-12T19:06:40.375Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 995495,
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    "at": "2026-10-14T21:09:44.043Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 1003995,
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    "outcome_id": "ish-5703ba4509592ece2b0b2857"
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   {
    "at": "2026-10-18T07:11:08.957Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 993995,
    "profit_hundredths": -6005,
    "outcome_id": "ish-83e187286e12238c59ba4c1f"
   },
   {
    "at": "2026-10-21T00:41:06.578Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 999314,
    "profit_hundredths": -686,
    "outcome_id": "ish-926d40f0d2d6d8b3d447f4ee"
   },
   {
    "at": "2026-10-22T19:01:14.918Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 1006814,
    "profit_hundredths": 6814,
    "outcome_id": "ish-d156ed2ac8c1d9555325d946"
   },
   {
    "at": "2026-10-26T12:50:40.944Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 1014564,
    "profit_hundredths": 14564,
    "outcome_id": "ish-221c4e80f2477644c72e003b"
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   {
    "at": "2026-11-03T22:07:40.813Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 1004564,
    "profit_hundredths": 4564,
    "outcome_id": "ish-e76a5128048150aed0ae7de0"
   },
   {
    "at": "2026-11-06T22:16:46.917Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 1010757,
    "profit_hundredths": 10757,
    "outcome_id": "ish-91a4670199c9b306c17d752a"
   },
   {
    "at": "2026-11-06T22:16:47.257Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 1000757,
    "profit_hundredths": 757,
    "outcome_id": "ish-c3432bf8aba8d5e5304e3cc2"
   },
   {
    "at": "2026-11-07T01:44:02.513Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 990757,
    "profit_hundredths": -9243,
    "outcome_id": "ish-c744ab69ed1ee3947c539e42"
   },
   {
    "at": "2026-11-07T02:11:51.697Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 980757,
    "profit_hundredths": -19243,
    "outcome_id": "ish-c9253041f1f39e6e1aa208d8"
   },
   {
    "at": "2026-11-07T09:36:59.075Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 987424,
    "profit_hundredths": -12576,
    "outcome_id": "ish-1d7ae4d3702ebf982ea563c2"
   },
   {
    "at": "2026-11-07T09:53:06.230Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 992687,
    "profit_hundredths": -7313,
    "outcome_id": "ish-7c3022ad194c83ccba218628"
   },
   {
    "at": "2026-11-07T09:53:06.240Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 996987,
    "profit_hundredths": -3013,
    "outcome_id": "ish-ef821e63928155c932edd65d"
   },
   {
    "at": "2026-11-07T09:53:06.293Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 986987,
    "profit_hundredths": -13013,
    "outcome_id": "ish-75f9e9bc4430ed0849d77262"
   },
   {
    "at": "2026-11-07T09:53:06.769Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 992513,
    "profit_hundredths": -7487,
    "outcome_id": "ish-ec8eff58a1b29a26c1d681e6"
   },
   {
    "at": "2026-11-07T10:28:39.827Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 982513,
    "profit_hundredths": -17487,
    "outcome_id": "ish-877f932dfa79b66314bef30a"
   },
   {
    "at": "2026-11-07T10:28:43.393Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 972513,
    "profit_hundredths": -27487,
    "outcome_id": "ish-8e3c7130d6984f5385404b73"
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   {
    "at": "2026-11-07T10:28:43.495Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 978648,
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    "at": "2026-11-07T11:04:55.507Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 989998,
    "profit_hundredths": -10002,
    "outcome_id": "ish-7686326defb694561aae5688"
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   {
    "at": "2026-11-07T11:52:25.094Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 996367,
    "profit_hundredths": -3633,
    "outcome_id": "ish-949bd7536d1cd431c70262a1"
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   {
    "at": "2026-11-07T11:52:25.121Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 986367,
    "profit_hundredths": -13633,
    "outcome_id": "ish-80d12517aa8b8c3a8ecc58aa"
   },
   {
    "at": "2026-11-07T11:52:38.555Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 993267,
    "profit_hundredths": -6733,
    "outcome_id": "ish-119f881b3243e2c93af78596"
   },
   {
    "at": "2026-11-07T11:52:44.430Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 983267,
    "profit_hundredths": -16733,
    "outcome_id": "ish-a4df9a8baf36da343dac6809"
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   {
    "at": "2026-11-07T12:19:07.510Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 973267,
    "profit_hundredths": -26733,
    "outcome_id": "ish-b565cb3602cb063880236c1b"
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   {
    "at": "2026-11-07T12:19:07.520Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 980260,
    "profit_hundredths": -19740,
    "outcome_id": "ish-4a161dec8f92a1a653f6833d"
   },
   {
    "at": "2026-11-07T17:37:51.727Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 988069,
    "profit_hundredths": -11931,
    "outcome_id": "ish-0a31cb37b38b5f80f689b606"
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  ],
  "top_ups": [],
  "rule": "When the balance falls below 100 points and no bets are open, 10000 points are added; the remaining balance is kept. While bets are open we wait for settlement.",
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 "simulations": [],
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  "detected": 364,
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   {
    "cause": "not_checked",
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   {
    "cause": "not_supported",
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   },
   {
    "cause": "other reading",
    "figure": 12
   },
   {
    "cause": "disputed_reading",
    "figure": 2
   },
   {
    "cause": "read after the match, from archived pages",
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  ]
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   "opinions": 13,
   "not_about_a_match": 267,
   "unclassified": 0
  },
  "predictions": 84,
  "predictions_restored": 1,
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  "qualifying_picks_restored": 0,
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  "settled_picks_restored": 0,
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    "methodologies": [
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    "display_name": "At an independent odds snapshot"
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   {
    "code_name": "author_price",
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    "stakes_hundredths": [
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    ],
    "methodologies": [
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    "display_name": "At the author's stated price"
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  ],
  "gaps": [
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   },
   {
    "code_name": "not_supported",
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   },
   {
    "code_name": "ambiguous",
    "cause": "other reading",
    "figure": 12
   },
   {
    "code_name": "disputed_reading",
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    "figure": 2
   },
   {
    "code_name": "after_match",
    "cause": "read after the match, from archived pages",
    "figure": 1
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  ],
  "duplicates": 0,
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   "observation_id": "n-6ba4d5716b12ad1a0e8d1e18",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-6ba4d5716b12ad1a0e8d1e18",
   "quote_text": "Il Fulham è reduce da un buon pareggio esterno per 1-1 sul campo dell’Aston Villa.",
   "fragment_from": 1072,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://www.betitaliaweb.it/pronostici/calcio/premier-league/127543-fulham-newcastle/",
    "display_name": null,
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   "published_at": "2026-11-06T12:02:15.000Z",
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   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
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   "settlements": [],
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   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-9debbf90b700e1aa2fb80523",
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   "quote_text": "I Magpies stanno mostrando una certa fragilità difensiva, con 15 gol subiti in 9 partite.",
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    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
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  {
   "observation_id": "n-cfb0d484a557e08ea740e5cb",
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   "quote_text": "Il Newcastle arriva da una sconfitta interna per 0-1 contro l’Everton.",
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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   "odds_set": {
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    "source_page_at": "2026-11-06T12:02:15.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-11-06T12:09:48.797Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
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    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "no_match_linked",
   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
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   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
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     }
    ],
    "evidence_total": 4,
    "badge": {
     "variants": [
      {
       "size": "l",
       "theme": "light",
       "width": 1201,
       "height": 40,
       "url": "/b/e-a047fa40c3d9cfcb8434c960/s-01-all-event-l-light.svg"
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      {
       "size": "l",
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       "url": "/b/e-a047fa40c3d9cfcb8434c960/s-01-all-event-l-dark.svg"
      },
      {
       "size": "m",
       "theme": "light",
       "width": 884,
       "height": 28,
       "url": "/b/e-a047fa40c3d9cfcb8434c960/s-01-all-event-m-light.svg"
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      {
       "size": "m",
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    },
    "profile_anchor": "title-1605aa25efc9",
    "chance": {
     "contract_version": 1,
     "kind": "streak",
     "priced": 2,
     "unpriced": 2,
     "hits": 2,
     "probability": 0.373019,
     "one_in": 3,
     "log10": -0.43,
     "words": "1 in 3",
     "rule": "product of the market probabilities (1/price) of every pick in the run",
     "note": "market prices include the bookmaker margin, so the chance is slightly overstated — a cautious figure"
    },
    "embed_anchor": "title-correct-run"
   }
  ],
  "publication_mode": "top20",
  "empty_reason": null,
  "rules_version": "catalog-1",
  "insufficient": [],
  "badges_on_page": 0,
  "header_titles": [
   {
    "title_id": "zk-1605aa25efc909fed024",
    "code_name": "S-01",
    "title_tier": "dated_record",
    "badge_label": "4 right in a row · 22 Oct",
    "body": "4 matches in a row, every pick correct · 20 Oct–22 Oct 2026",
    "tier": null,
    "provenance": "live",
    "anchor_id": "title-1605aa25efc9",
    "event_at": "2026-10-22",
    "url": "/titles/s-01-correct-run/#zk-1605aa25efc909fed024"
   }
  ],
  "record_origin": [],
  "recent_record": [
   {
    "code_name": "S-01",
    "body": "4 matches in a row, every pick correct · 20 Oct–22 Oct 2026",
    "event_at": "2026-10-22",
    "url": null,
    "provenance": "live",
    "anchor_id": "title-1605aa25efc9"
   }
  ],
  "record_details": [],
  "history": [
   {
    "code_name": "S-01",
    "body": "5 matches in a row, every pick correct · 25 Oct–31 Oct 2026 · removed 2 Nov 2026",
    "event_at": "2026-11-02",
    "status": "corrected",
    "cause": "recomputed after a correction to the record",
    "provenance": "live"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "S-01",
    "body": "4 matches in a row, every pick correct · 25 Oct–28 Oct 2026 · removed 1 Nov 2026",
    "event_at": "2026-11-01",
    "status": "corrected",
    "cause": "recomputed after a correction to the record",
    "provenance": "live"
   }
  ]
 },
 "retro": null,
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "threshold_percent": "5",
  "rows": [
   {
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "basis_words": "our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off)",
    "basis_short": "Our market price when we first recorded the pick",
    "compared": 30,
    "above": 1,
    "above_share_percent": "3.3",
    "below": 0,
    "within": 29,
    "median_difference_percent": "1.1",
    "not_comparable": 0,
    "disputed": 0,
    "status": "calculated"
   }
  ],
  "examples": [
   {
    "url": "/authors/stefano-scorrano/picks/3/#pick-n-0c3e9909e4fba7db4742a4ba",
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "stated": "2.73",
    "market": "1.70",
    "difference_percent": "60.7"
   }
  ],
  "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way."
 },
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "betitaliaweb.it",
   "url": "https://www.betitaliaweb.it/pronostici/calcio/premier-league/127543-fulham-newcastle/"
  },
  "observed_from": "2026-10-11",
  "observed_to": "2026-11-06",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "market_price",
  "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price",
  "restored": false,
  "headline_kind": "live_snapshot",
  "headline_part": "live",
  "settled_picks": 28,
  "matches": 28,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": -11931,
  "staked_hundredths": 280000,
  "return_percent": "-4.26",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2026-10-11",
  "period_to": "2026-11-07",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "2.2",
  "short_history": true,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record recorded 28 settled live picks by Stefano Scorrano before kick-off across 28 matches between 11 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −4.3% on the total staked. Of the 84 predictions we hold for Stefano Scorrano, 55 are linked to matches: 51 were recorded by us before kick-off and 4 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled live picks",
    "value": "28",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "28",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "−119.31 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "value": "−4.3%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": "95% interval −35.2% to +26.3%"
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [
   {
    "date": "2026-10-11",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -3807,
    "n": 2
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-12",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 1688,
    "n": 3
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-13",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -8312,
    "n": 4
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-14",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -9812,
    "n": 6
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-18",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -29812,
    "n": 8
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-20",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -24493,
    "n": 9
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-22",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -16993,
    "n": 10
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-23",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -26993,
    "n": 11
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-24",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -46993,
    "n": 13
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-25",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -32250,
    "n": 15
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-27",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -28981,
    "n": 18
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-31",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -11496,
    "n": 20
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-01",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -21496,
    "n": 21
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-02",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -15970,
    "n": 22
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-03",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -21670,
    "n": 24
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-04",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -26407,
    "n": 26
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-05",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -19740,
    "n": 27
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-07",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -11931,
    "n": 28
   }
  ],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": {
    "part": "live",
    "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.",
    "settled_picks": 28,
    "matches": 28,
    "match_dates": 18,
    "period_from": "2026-10-11",
    "period_to": "2026-11-07",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": -11931,
    "low": {
     "date": "2026-10-24",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -46993,
     "after_picks": 13
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2026-10-12",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 1688,
     "after_picks": 3
    },
    "line_drawn": true,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2026-10-11",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -3807,
      "n": 2,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-12",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 1688,
      "n": 3,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-13",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -8312,
      "n": 4,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-14",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -9812,
      "n": 6,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-18",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -29812,
      "n": 8,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-20",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -24493,
      "n": 9,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-22",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -16993,
      "n": 10,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-23",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -26993,
      "n": 11,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-24",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -46993,
      "n": 13,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-25",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -32250,
      "n": 15,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-27",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -28981,
      "n": 18,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-31",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -11496,
      "n": 20,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-01",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -21496,
      "n": 21,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-02",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -15970,
      "n": 22,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-03",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -21670,
      "n": 24,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-04",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -26407,
      "n": 26,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-05",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -19740,
      "n": 27,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-07",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -11931,
      "n": 28,
      "picks": 1
     }
    ]
   },
   "archived": null
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record recorded 28 settled live picks by Stefano Scorrano before kick-off across 28 matches between 11 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −4.3% on the total staked. Of the 84 predictions we hold for Stefano Scorrano, 55 are linked to matches: 51 were recorded by us before kick-off and 4 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/stefano-scorrano/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "2.2"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 84,
   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 29,
   "proven_predictions": 51,
   "proven_checked": 47,
   "proven_measured": 28,
   "proven_dates": 24,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 51,
     "checked": 47,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 28,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 28,
      "net_points_hundredths": -11931,
      "staked_hundredths": 280000,
      "return_percent": "-4.26",
      "interval_low": "-35.23",
      "interval_high": "26.29",
      "interval_note": null,
      "period_from": "2026-10-11",
      "period_to": "2026-11-07",
      "method_version": "2.2",
      "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0",
      "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.1",
      "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 21
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "author_price",
       "picks": 28,
       "return_main_percent": "-4.26",
       "return_other_percent": "0.36",
       "settled_excluding_void": 28,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -11931,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 1000,
       "period_from": "2026-10-11",
       "period_to": "2026-11-07"
      },
      {
       "price": "Closing price",
       "series_code": "closing_live",
       "picks": 24,
       "return_main_percent": "-10.72",
       "return_other_percent": "-10.03",
       "settled_excluding_void": 24,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -25740,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -24061,
       "period_from": "2026-10-11",
       "period_to": "2026-11-05"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 47,
      "priced": 28
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 28,
      "won": 16,
      "won_percent": "57.1",
      "implied_percent": "58.2",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 6,
        "picks": 13,
        "implied_percent": "57.3"
       },
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 6,
        "picks": 9,
        "implied_percent": "61.1"
       },
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 2,
        "picks": 3,
        "implied_percent": "57.0"
       },
       {
        "market": "Double chance",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 2,
        "implied_percent": "53.4"
       },
       {
        "market": "Team goals",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "56.3"
       }
      ]
     },
     "reviewed_after": {
      "predictions": 16,
      "right": 8,
      "wrong": 7,
      "other": 1
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 4,
     "checked": 3,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 3,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    }
   ]
  },
  "live_alongside": null,
  "headline_record_ids": [
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   "n-2d3edaddf322a808ede45388",
   "n-2f5832d8680a786b2d5dbcc3",
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   "n-bfb1f739d22eeb95d95db086",
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  ],
  "interval_low": "-35.23",
  "interval_high": "26.29",
  "caption": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price · 100 points per pick · 11 October – 7 November 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under method v2.2",
  "record_from": "2026-10-11",
  "record_to": "2026-11-07"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
  {
   "record_id": "n-64f6017b66a1f4101ee38934",
   "url": "/authors/stefano-scorrano/picks/6/#pick-n-64f6017b66a1f4101ee38934",
   "match": "Fulham v Newcastle United",
   "match_url": "/football/matches/fulham-vs-newcastle-united-2026-11-07/",
   "kickoff": "2026-11-07T15:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": 26.8,
   "market_code": "double_chance",
   "author_said": "Double chance: draw or Newcastle United at 1.72",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Won",
   "claim_outcome": "Won",
   "final_score": "1-1",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": 7809,
   "series_code": "market_price",
   "series_short": "odds snapshot",
   "author_price": "1.72",
   "settled_price": "1.7809",
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   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2026-10-16T11:37:25.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-16T11:39:44.903Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "record_part": "unlinked",
   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-657b64cd9ebac2ad9fbabe67",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "PRONOSTICO: VENEZIA OVER 2.5 CARTELLINI @2.20",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "ambiguous",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2026-10-16T11:33:52.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-16T11:39:43.691Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "record_part": "unlinked",
   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-b726b006ddf35de4cbeea4e9",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "PRONOSTICO: GOL SI + OVER 2.5 @1.60",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "ambiguous",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2026-10-16T11:29:57.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-16T11:39:44.221Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "record_part": "unlinked",
   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-35072bb2ff61278a015ef88b",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "PRONOSTICO: GOL SI + OVER 2.5 @1.60",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "ambiguous",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2026-10-16T11:29:57.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-16T11:39:44.221Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "record_part": "unlinked",
   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-56fea3f10ff21bded132352e",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "PRONOSTICO: MARSIGLIA 0, +0.5 (AH) @1.83",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2026-10-15T11:45:59.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-15T11:49:32.968Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "record_part": "unlinked",
   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-76bd6fc0131f4404d16223fc",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "PRONOSTIVO: VITTORIA LEVERKUSEN @1.75",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2026-10-15T11:42:47.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-15T11:49:32.476Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "record_part": "unlinked",
   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-341a5767d85f5a6d02c94932",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "PRONOSTICO: VITtORIA ATALANTA @1.38",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "ambiguous",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2026-10-13T10:56:33.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-13T10:59:33.366Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "record_part": "unlinked",
   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-733edbf9ff92b3f5b82e4849",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "PRONOSTICO: UNDER 2.5 @1.75",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "ambiguous",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2026-10-13T10:52:15.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-13T10:59:34.061Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "record_part": "unlinked",
   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-8275c4a5d4ab6193d6183db1",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "PRONOSTICO: VITTORIA MILAN @1.80",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2026-10-13T10:48:35.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-13T10:49:27.859Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "record_part": "unlinked",
   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-7727191cdbba8735dd60dd15",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "PRONOSTICO: 1 + OVER 2.5 @1.75",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2026-10-12T11:57:02.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T11:59:25.024Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "record_part": "unlinked",
   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-f27991f18b611fff09279518",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "PRONOSTICO: GOL NO @2.00",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2026-10-08T14:16:27.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-11T01:49:44.854Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  }
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 "lead_time": {
  "contract_version": 1,
  "threshold_hours": 2.0,
  "picks": 54,
  "before_kickoff": 51,
  "after_kickoff": 3,
  "at_least_2h": 51,
  "share_2h_plus": 94.4,
  "median_hours": 47.3,
  "min_hours": 4.5,
  "max_hours": 127.3,
  "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off."
 },
 "baseline": {
  "contract_version": 1,
  "series_code": "market_price",
  "rule": "recorded-line-1.0",
  "state": "settled",
  "picks": 6,
  "settled_picks_all": 28,
  "excluded": {
   "market_without_favourite": 3,
   "no_recorded_line": 19,
   "favourite_not_settled": 0
  },
  "staked_hundredths": 60000,
  "author_net_hundredths": 6814,
  "favourite_net_hundredths": 7014,
  "difference_hundredths": -200,
  "author_return_percent": 11.36,
  "favourite_return_percent": 11.69,
  "author_hit_rate": 66.7,
  "favourite_hit_rate": 66.7,
  "picked_favourite_share": 100.0,
  "by_market": [
   {
    "market_code": "1x2",
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    "staked_hundredths": 30000,
    "author_net_hundredths": 3995,
    "favourite_net_hundredths": 4195,
    "author_hits": 2,
    "favourite_hits": 2,
    "picked_favourite": 3,
    "author_return_percent": 13.32,
    "favourite_return_percent": 13.98
   },
   {
    "market_code": "both_teams_score",
    "picks": 2,
    "staked_hundredths": 20000,
    "author_net_hundredths": 12819,
    "favourite_net_hundredths": 12819,
    "author_hits": 2,
    "favourite_hits": 2,
    "picked_favourite": 2,
    "author_return_percent": 64.09,
    "favourite_return_percent": 64.09
   },
   {
    "market_code": "total",
    "picks": 1,
    "staked_hundredths": 10000,
    "author_net_hundredths": -10000,
    "favourite_net_hundredths": -10000,
    "author_hits": 0,
    "favourite_hits": 0,
    "picked_favourite": 1,
    "author_return_percent": -100.0,
    "favourite_return_percent": -100.0
   }
  ],
  "return_over_time": [
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": -10000,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -10000
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-12T16:30:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": -4505,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -4505
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-14T16:45:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": -14505,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -14505
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": -6005,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -5805
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-20T19:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": -686,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -486
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 6814,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 7014
   }
  ],
  "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out."
 },
 "pagination": {
  "per_page": 20,
  "total": 84,
  "pages": 6,
  "page_urls": [
   "/authors/stefano-scorrano/",
   "/authors/stefano-scorrano/picks/2/",
   "/authors/stefano-scorrano/picks/3/",
   "/authors/stefano-scorrano/picks/4/",
   "/authors/stefano-scorrano/picks/5/",
   "/authors/stefano-scorrano/picks/6/"
  ],
  "groups": {
   "settled": 29,
   "pending": 2,
   "excluded": 53
  },
  "continuation": "by_time",
  "page": 1,
  "first": 1,
  "last": 20,
  "author_url": "/authors/stefano-scorrano/",
  "current": true
 },
 "title_tag": "Stefano Scorrano Predictions: This Week's Picks & Verified Record",
 "calculator": null,
 "person": {
  "person_id": "o-a047fa40c3d9cfcb8434c960",
  "type_code": "individual",
  "name_shown": "Stefano Scorrano",
  "main_entity": "e-a047fa40c3d9cfcb8434c960",
  "identity": {
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   "source_list": []
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  "platform_list": [
   {
    "entity_ref": "e-a047fa40c3d9cfcb8434c960",
    "medium": "BetItaliaWeb",
    "channel": "RSS feed",
    "domain": "betitaliaweb.it",
    "source_info": null,
    "byline": "Stefano Scorrano",
    "url": null,
    "summary": {
     "statements": 364,
     "predictions": 84,
     "settled_picks": 28,
     "headline_kind": "live_snapshot",
     "return_percent": -4.26,
     "headline_part": "live",
     "period_from": "2026-10-11",
     "period_to": "2026-11-06"
    }
   }
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  "trust_tier": "probation"
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 "data_revision": {
  "data_version": "2026-11-07.2",
  "updated": "2026-11-07",
  "current_release": "2026-11-07.2",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "method_version": "2.2",
  "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
  "series_code": "market_price",
  "sample": {
   "settled_picks": 28,
   "matches": 28,
   "void": 0,
   "period_from": "2026-10-11",
   "period_to": "2026-11-07",
   "composition_hash": "ea176d663bcf157d25424998dd5de49971ae5e0e98ed2e61ecdd5063ef5b3259"
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  "changes_url": "#changes",
  "corrections_url": "/corrections/"
 },
 "number_changes": [
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   "url": "/authors/stefano-scorrano/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
   "category_words": "Coverage extended",
   "before": {
    "data_version": "2026-11-07.1",
    "return_percent": "-16.04",
    "settled_picks": 12,
    "matches": 12,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "b41221e65f845bbfe863765d3bc0417f6b41c3d3bc9da914811c203a0bda6212",
    "text": "−16.04% on 12 settled picks across 12 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-11-07.2",
    "return_percent": "-4.26",
    "settled_picks": 28,
    "matches": 28,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
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    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "ea176d663bcf157d25424998dd5de49971ae5e0e98ed2e61ecdd5063ef5b3259",
    "text": "−4.26% on 28 settled picks across 28 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 15 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture); also 1 new result.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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  {
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   "url": "/authors/stefano-scorrano/",
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   "category_words": "Coverage extended",
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    "composition_hash": "0c38b211f5b73f7dcec54649a26ec3b17c5c83a527fc3aa5841b83c4ee23df80",
    "text": "+0.76% on 10 settled picks across 10 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-11-07.1",
    "return_percent": "-16.04",
    "settled_picks": 12,
    "matches": 12,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "b41221e65f845bbfe863765d3bc0417f6b41c3d3bc9da914811c203a0bda6212",
    "text": "−16.04% on 12 settled picks across 12 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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   "url": "/authors/stefano-scorrano/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
   "category_words": "Coverage extended",
   "before": {
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    "matches": 8,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
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    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "53452213bd7d2ad339d7a9ca780cd157e5debdc41869fcdb93446f2dc54eb463",
    "text": "+45.64 points on 8 settled picks across 8 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-11-06.2",
    "return_percent": "0.76",
    "settled_picks": 10,
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    "composition_hash": "0c38b211f5b73f7dcec54649a26ec3b17c5c83a527fc3aa5841b83c4ee23df80",
    "text": "+0.76% on 10 settled picks across 10 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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    "removed": 0,
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   },
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  },
  {
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   "at": "2026-11-04T03:35:56.412Z",
   "data_version": "2026-11-04.1",
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   "url": "/authors/stefano-scorrano/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
   "category_words": "Coverage extended",
   "before": {
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    "return_percent": "20.81",
    "settled_picks": 7,
    "matches": 7,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
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    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "7e937fc95d518cea164f3dcb554d19b79c4629e9b2ff7fdf322baac4599f739f",
    "text": "+145.64 points on 7 settled picks across 7 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-11-04.1",
    "return_percent": "5.71",
    "settled_picks": 8,
    "matches": 8,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "53452213bd7d2ad339d7a9ca780cd157e5debdc41869fcdb93446f2dc54eb463",
    "text": "+45.64 points on 8 settled picks across 8 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
    "added": 1,
    "removed": 0,
    "changed": 0
   },
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  },
  {
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   "at": "2026-10-27T07:47:02.386Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-27.1",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-26.1",
   "url": "/authors/stefano-scorrano/",
   "category": "new_results",
   "category_words": "New results",
   "before": {
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    "return_percent": "11.36",
    "settled_picks": 6,
    "matches": 6,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "03d60f2d7abdaca8709cb2ba73cc6dc0ba7d33d7a2248cb7d7b64c8c673db27a",
    "text": "+68.14 points on 6 settled picks across 6 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-27.1",
    "return_percent": "20.81",
    "settled_picks": 7,
    "matches": 7,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
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    "composition_hash": "7e937fc95d518cea164f3dcb554d19b79c4629e9b2ff7fdf322baac4599f739f",
    "text": "+145.64 points on 7 settled picks across 7 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous data version.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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    "removed": 0,
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   },
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  },
  {
   "id": "zc-edfacead99e3fb5b5672",
   "at": "2026-10-22T22:37:17.307Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-22.6",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-22.5",
   "url": "/authors/stefano-scorrano/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
   "category_words": "Coverage extended",
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    "settled_picks": 5,
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    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "835fe97bafdb841f930f8919ac9b3fff8093ae2823c417c1815da28153a6359a",
    "text": "−6.86 points on 5 settled picks across 5 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-22.6",
    "return_percent": "11.36",
    "settled_picks": 6,
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    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "03d60f2d7abdaca8709cb2ba73cc6dc0ba7d33d7a2248cb7d7b64c8c673db27a",
    "text": "+68.14 points on 6 settled picks across 6 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
    "added": 1,
    "removed": 0,
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   },
   "correction_id": null
  },
  {
   "id": "zc-ee883e8c380e23745f85",
   "at": "2026-10-21T02:27:55.722Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-21.1",
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   "url": "/authors/stefano-scorrano/",
   "category": "new_results",
   "category_words": "New results",
   "before": {
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    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "3dca7d9630e61126d4703fc54632a19c3455385800ac4aea37737d4ce4ea7232",
    "text": "−60.05 points on 4 settled picks across 4 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-21.1",
    "return_percent": "-1.37",
    "settled_picks": 5,
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    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "835fe97bafdb841f930f8919ac9b3fff8093ae2823c417c1815da28153a6359a",
    "text": "−6.86 points on 5 settled picks across 5 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous data version.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
    "added": 1,
    "removed": 0,
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   },
   "correction_id": null
  },
  {
   "id": "zc-1363e5df38a3838323b7",
   "at": "2026-10-18T08:07:07.527Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-18.5",
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   "url": "/authors/stefano-scorrano/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
   "category_words": "Coverage extended",
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    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "63197136e39fd7bd13ee63e4953d66bfa050ce99bb3a7aac976fbcbfd1495560",
    "text": "+39.95 points on 3 settled picks across 3 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-18.5",
    "return_percent": "-15.01",
    "settled_picks": 4,
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    "void": 0,
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    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "3dca7d9630e61126d4703fc54632a19c3455385800ac4aea37737d4ce4ea7232",
    "text": "−60.05 points on 4 settled picks across 4 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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    "removed": 0,
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   },
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  {
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   "at": "2026-10-14T22:11:18.139Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-14.3",
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   "url": "/authors/stefano-scorrano/",
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    "series_code": "market_price",
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    "composition_hash": "1489f4aedac08e349deca5c8744495f9145ecd0cd9ca9f901a5fe5e504f52f28",
    "text": "−45.05 points on 2 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-14.3",
    "return_percent": "13.32",
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    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "63197136e39fd7bd13ee63e4953d66bfa050ce99bb3a7aac976fbcbfd1495560",
    "text": "+39.95 points on 3 settled picks across 3 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous data version.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
    "added": 1,
    "removed": 0,
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   },
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  },
  {
   "id": "zc-af9296d42a3cf0f86550",
   "at": "2026-10-12T21:23:00.584Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-12.5",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-12.4",
   "url": "/authors/stefano-scorrano/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
   "category_words": "Coverage extended",
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    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "12667549467247ca0ef66233bea4f8f16e173f3f36ab2a447981b1402c2901ac",
    "text": "−100.00 points on 1 settled pick across 1 match · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-12.5",
    "return_percent": "-22.52",
    "settled_picks": 2,
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    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "1489f4aedac08e349deca5c8744495f9145ecd0cd9ca9f901a5fe5e504f52f28",
    "text": "−45.05 points on 2 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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    "removed": 0,
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   },
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  {
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   "at": "2026-10-11T19:38:24.634Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-11.6",
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   "url": "/authors/stefano-scorrano/",
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    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "12667549467247ca0ef66233bea4f8f16e173f3f36ab2a447981b1402c2901ac",
    "text": "−100.00 points on 1 settled pick across 1 match · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Method 2.2 (11 October 2026): the live market price of a pick is now the price at the moment we first recorded it (median of bookmakers in our price feed, quote no older than 5 minutes; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, before kick-off), not the price when our checks admitted it. Picks recorded before kick-off but checked after it are now settled the same way; picks with no price at that moment have no return. First headline number for this record: 1 settled pick.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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 ],
 "current_predictions": {
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    "kickoff": "2026-11-08T14:00:00.000Z",
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 "counts_by_slice": {
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      "period_from": "2026-10-25",
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       },
       {
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        "period_from": "2026-10-23",
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        "period_from": "2026-10-12",
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     },
     {
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      "url": "/football/competitions/uefa-champions-league/",
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      "void": 0,
      "net_points_hundredths": -16618,
      "return_percent": "-20.8",
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      "small_sample": true,
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      "league_markets": [
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        "in_words": "Over/under goals",
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        "period_from": "2026-10-13",
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       },
       {
        "code_name": "both_teams_score",
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        "won": 2,
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        "return_percent": null,
        "period_from": "2026-10-20",
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        "small_sample": true,
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       },
       {
        "code_name": "1x2",
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        "won": 1,
        "void": 0,
        "net_points_hundredths": -1500,
        "return_percent": null,
        "period_from": "2026-10-14",
        "period_to": "2026-10-14",
        "small_sample": true,
        "average_odds": "1.92",
        "odds_from_author": 2,
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       },
       {
        "code_name": "double_chance",
        "in_words": "Double chance",
        "settled_picks": 1,
        "won": 0,
        "void": 0,
        "net_points_hundredths": -10000,
        "return_percent": null,
        "period_from": "2026-11-03",
        "period_to": "2026-11-03",
        "small_sample": true,
        "average_odds": "2.05",
        "odds_from_author": 1,
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       }
      ]
     },
     {
      "code_name": "Premier League",
      "in_words": "Premier League",
      "url": "/football/competitions/premier-league/",
      "settled_picks": 3,
      "won": 2,
      "void": 0,
      "net_points_hundredths": 4802,
      "return_percent": "16.0",
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