{
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 "language": "en",
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 "heading": "Simon: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "Verified record: 46 settled picks by Simon recorded before kick-off across 33 matches, 11 Oct 2026 – 7 Nov 2026: −36.8% at our recorded market prices.",
 "first_paragraph": {
  "body": "Forecast Record recorded 46 settled live picks by Simon before kick-off across 33 matches between 11 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −36.8% on the total staked. Of the 415 predictions we hold for Simon, 203 are linked to matches: 181 were recorded by us before kick-off and 22 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "key_number": "−36.8%",
  "data": "2026-11-07",
  "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot",
  "brand": "Forecast Record"
 },
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 "indexing_threshold": {
  "settled_count": 59,
  "date_count": 23,
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  "required_dates": 2
 },
 "data_date": "2026-11-07T17:57:28.965Z",
 "built_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
 "lastmod": "2026-11-08T02:12:33.000Z",
 "content_hash": null,
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 "dependency_group": "author:e-509c7aadd81b0ac931c3cdfd",
 "release_id": "20261107-195223",
 "markup": [
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 "exports": [
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   "url": "/authors/simon/index.json",
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   "type_code": "csv",
   "url": "/authors/simon/picks.csv",
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 ],
 "modules": {
  "affiliate": true,
  "api": true,
  "compare_yourself": false
 },
 "affiliate_block": {
  "container": true,
  "request_url": "/partnery/moi",
  "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.",
  "page_category": "author"
 },
 "restrictions": {
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 "page_links": {
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  "right_of_reply": "/right-of-reply/",
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  "corrections_log": "/corrections/",
  "api": "/api/",
  "claim": "/claim/"
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 "entity": {
  "id": "e-509c7aadd81b0ac931c3cdfd",
  "public_name": "Simon",
  "tracker_number": 2995,
  "status": "active",
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  "observation_period": {
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   "until": "2026-11-07"
  },
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    "handle": null,
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 },
 "headline_number": {
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   "code_name": "roi_market_price",
   "display_name": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot",
   "window_kind": "90d",
   "window_from": "2026-08-09",
   "window_to": "2026-11-07",
   "amount": "-36.8185",
   "unit": "percent",
   "data_status": "calculated",
   "cause": null,
   "n_bets": 46,
   "n_events": 33,
   "n_void": 0,
   "ci_low": "-60.8187",
   "ci_high": "-11.3024",
   "ci_method": "cluster_bootstrap",
   "price_source": "market_price",
   "coverage_percent": "50.00",
   "breakdown": [],
   "methodology_version": "2.2",
   "data_date": "2026-11-07T17:57:28.965Z",
   "enough_for_ranking": true,
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   "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot"
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  "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 46 settled picks across 33 matches",
  "average_odds": "2.19",
  "odds_from_author": 18,
  "odds_from_snapshot": 28
 },
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 },
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    "display_name": "Forecast Record reconstruction from the predicted score"
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   {
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    "stakes_hundredths": [
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    "methodologies": [
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    "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price"
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  ],
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   },
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   },
   {
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   },
   {
    "code_name": "no_price_at_capture",
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    "figure": 11
   },
   {
    "code_name": "not_admitted",
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    "figure": 2
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  ],
  "duplicates": 21,
  "junk": {
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  },
  "dictionary_url": "/methodology/#words"
 },
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-c6a27883951217b5ab959f34",
   "quote_text": "Bayer Leverkusen sucht weiter nach der Form und vor allem nach Konstanz.",
   "fragment_from": 5426,
   "fragment_to": 5498,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://wettformat.com/de/wett-tipp/1-fc-koeln-bayer-04-leverkusen-2026-11-08-tipp-prognose-275214",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Simon",
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  "matches": 33,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": -169365,
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  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
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    "date": "2026-11-06",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -154064,
    "n": 43
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-07",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -169365,
    "n": 46
   }
  ],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": {
    "part": "live",
    "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.",
    "settled_picks": 46,
    "matches": 33,
    "match_dates": 16,
    "period_from": "2026-10-11",
    "period_to": "2026-11-07",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": -169365,
    "low": {
     "date": "2026-11-07",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -169365,
     "after_picks": 46
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2026-10-20",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 1228,
     "after_picks": 8
    },
    "line_drawn": true,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2026-10-11",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000,
      "n": 1,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-16",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -20000,
      "n": 2,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-19",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -14286,
      "n": 3,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-20",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 1228,
      "n": 8,
      "picks": 5
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-24",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -41913,
      "n": 17,
      "picks": 9
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-25",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -60913,
      "n": 21,
      "picks": 4
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-26",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -70913,
      "n": 22,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-29",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -64815,
      "n": 23,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-31",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -74815,
      "n": 24,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-01",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -88665,
      "n": 27,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-02",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -83365,
      "n": 30,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-03",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -88964,
      "n": 35,
      "picks": 5
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-04",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -98964,
      "n": 36,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-05",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -124064,
      "n": 40,
      "picks": 4
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-06",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -154064,
      "n": 43,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-07",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -169365,
      "n": 46,
      "picks": 3
     }
    ]
   },
   "archived": null
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record recorded 46 settled live picks by Simon before kick-off across 33 matches between 11 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −36.8% on the total staked. Of the 415 predictions we hold for Simon, 203 are linked to matches: 181 were recorded by us before kick-off and 22 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/simon/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "2.2"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 415,
   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 212,
   "proven_predictions": 181,
   "proven_checked": 167,
   "proven_measured": 59,
   "proven_dates": 23,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 181,
     "checked": 167,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 46,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 33,
      "net_points_hundredths": -169365,
      "staked_hundredths": 460000,
      "return_percent": "-36.82",
      "interval_low": "-60.82",
      "interval_high": "-11.30",
      "interval_note": null,
      "period_from": "2026-10-11",
      "period_to": "2026-11-07",
      "method_version": "2.2",
      "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0",
      "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.1",
      "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 6
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "author_price",
       "picks": 23,
       "return_main_percent": "-30.27",
       "return_other_percent": "-30.78",
       "settled_excluding_void": 23,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -69622,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -70800,
       "period_from": "2026-10-11",
       "period_to": "2026-11-07"
      },
      {
       "price": "Closing price",
       "series_code": "closing_live",
       "picks": 40,
       "return_main_percent": "-27.34",
       "return_other_percent": "-31.11",
       "settled_excluding_void": 40,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -109365,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -124422,
       "period_from": "2026-10-11",
       "period_to": "2026-11-07"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 13,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": 0.0,
      "outcome_checked": 13,
      "outcome_hits": 6,
      "outcome_rate": 46.2,
      "baseline_matches": 6,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 6,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 4,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": 66.7,
      "favourite_hits": 5,
      "favourite_rate": 83.3,
      "price_basis": "our pre-match snapshot",
      "pending": 1,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": [
       "Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.",
       "0 of 13 score forecasts named the exact score (0.0%).",
       "The result implied by the named score was right in 4 of 6 matches; the market favourite was right in 5 of the same 6 matches.",
       "A pre-match market favourite is known for 6 of 13 forecasts; the comparison uses only those.",
       "The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest price in our own odds snapshot taken before kick-off.",
       "The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win)."
      ]
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 167,
      "priced": 46
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 46,
      "won": 17,
      "won_percent": "37.0",
      "implied_percent": "55.3",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 4,
        "picks": 17,
        "implied_percent": "52.7"
       },
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 5,
        "picks": 17,
        "implied_percent": "55.1"
       },
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 6,
        "picks": 7,
        "implied_percent": "68.2"
       },
       {
        "market": "Double chance",
        "won": 2,
        "picks": 3,
        "implied_percent": "70.8"
       },
       {
        "market": "Correct score",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 2,
        "implied_percent": "10.6"
       }
      ]
     },
     "reviewed_after": {
      "predictions": 68,
      "right": 22,
      "wrong": 45,
      "other": 1
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 22,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    }
   ]
  },
  "live_alongside": null,
  "headline_record_ids": [
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   "n-0b677d84119127132955e6a7",
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   "n-2a870564d28e36cc6b3628fe",
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   "n-8095283e62152bed0ec56899",
   "n-8461f1bf4d098b64032fc688",
   "n-8a49fab6de7ecf0efb2e8a6a",
   "n-8ea8836032c2903455eea899",
   "n-9ff0c62cde39841638c92273",
   "n-a003c7571ecb42f3e2b42762",
   "n-a3fb4d9937251affecec3512",
   "n-a5e5ab5e8d1a21260f5f3a13",
   "n-ad580451d5d7fd75c7bcb8da",
   "n-c09fb0e45febccacde061b3e",
   "n-c1b0ac208cc230e84681a172",
   "n-c35bf60a9efd604966165c4d",
   "n-c3795ee2156db4047f13ad53",
   "n-ccfdc36830b0579119b1ce33",
   "n-d333b7409a09dc57b8acb235",
   "n-d5d6832bcad994908d2b625e",
   "n-d67a6d2b62832eb17fe5c4ce",
   "n-df747476645a91cc2c601032",
   "n-e7cf65128a21bbd8e3244145",
   "n-f7ff6e8fb3f8d8976337640d",
   "n-faae71ef3995d5ab547cf804"
  ],
  "interval_low": "-60.82",
  "interval_high": "-11.30",
  "caption": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price · 100 points per pick · 11 October – 7 November 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under method v2.2",
  "record_from": "2026-10-11",
  "record_to": "2026-11-07"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
  {
   "record_id": "n-8461f1bf4d098b64032fc688",
   "url": "/authors/simon/picks/20/#pick-n-8461f1bf4d098b64032fc688",
   "match": "SC Paderborn 07 v Eintracht Frankfurt",
   "match_url": "/football/matches/sc-paderborn-07-vs-eintracht-frankfurt-2026-11-07/",
   "kickoff": "2026-11-07T14:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Bundesliga",
   "lead_hours": 79.7,
   "market_code": "total",
   "author_said": "Over/Under 2.5 goals: under 2.5 at 2.65",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "2-2",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "market_price",
   "series_short": "odds snapshot",
   "author_price": "2.65",
   "settled_price": "2.7200",
   "published_at": "2026-11-04T06:22:04.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-11-04T06:50:23.048Z",
   "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
   "record_part": "live",
   "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off",
   "in_headline": true,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": {
    "outcome": "over",
    "price": "1.4400",
    "result": "Won",
    "points_hundredths": 4400,
    "picked_favourite": false
   },
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-8461f1bf4d098b64032fc688",
    "quote_text": "Unter 2.5 Tore\n\n2.65",
    "fragment_from": 11356,
    "fragment_to": 11376,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "website",
     "url": "https://wettformat.com/de/wett-tipp/1-fc-nuernberg-sv-darmstadt-98-2026-11-07-tipp-prognose-275102",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Simon",
     "authorship": "channel_owner",
     "media_from_ms": null,
     "bundle_id": "e77e6338bcc1e297dcd67cd2c8ca7b3c8a5b36e16b29ec778377f9140a8b17e4",
     "material_removed": false
    },
    "published_at": "2026-11-04T06:22:04.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-11-04T06:50:23.048Z",
    "executed_at": "2026-11-05T14:07:59.111Z",
    "statement_class": "priced",
    "status": "recognised",
    "cause": null,
    "cause_code": null,
    "event": {
     "event_id": "s-9d5a1b79a27f",
     "display_name": "SC Paderborn 07 — Eintracht Frankfurt",
     "competition_name": "Bundesliga",
     "starts_at": "2026-11-07T14:30:00.000Z",
     "url": "/football/matches/sc-paderborn-07-vs-eintracht-frankfurt-2026-11-07/",
     "scoreline": "2-2",
     "condition": "finished"
    },
    "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
    "outcome_label": "under 2.5",
    "odds_set": {
     "by_author": "2.65",
     "our_snapshot": "2.7200",
     "our_snapshot_at": "2026-11-04T06:49:52.681Z",
     "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot",
     "closing": null,
     "closing_source": null
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
    "result": "loss",
    "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000,
    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
    "executed_by": "ours",
    "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot",
    "withdrawn": false,
    "provenance": "recorded_pre_match",
    "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "dates": {
     "fragment_at": "2026-11-04T06:22:04.000Z",
     "fragment_basis": "page",
     "source_page_at": "2026-11-04T06:22:04.000Z",
     "detected_at": "2026-11-04T06:50:23.048Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [],
     "flag_words": null,
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff",
    "origin_detail": null,
    "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "added_on": null,
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
     "choice": "under 2.5",
     "author_odds": "2.65",
     "market_key": "total",
     "choice_key": "under",
     "period": "match",
     "line": "2.5",
     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "Over/Under 2.5 goals: under 2.5 at 2.65"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
     "result": "loss",
     "scoreline": "2-2",
     "data_status": "measured",
     "cause": null,
     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "in_words": "Lost: the final score was SC Paderborn 07 2-2 Eintracht Frankfurt."
    },
    "settlements": [
     {
      "operation_id": "ad34254ee6b994431693b622a1c0411ceda5f15b40490088c40401b0ab2fbb8c",
      "series_key": "author_price",
      "series_label": "At the author's stated price",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
      "choice": "under 2.5",
      "decimal_odds": "2.65",
      "odds_role": "author_price",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
      "status_text": "Executed",
      "result": "loss",
      "result_words": "Lost",
      "change_hundredths": -10000,
      "executed_at": "2026-11-05T14:07:57.704Z",
      "methodology_version": "2.2",
      "on_claim_market": true,
      "replaced": false
     },
     {
      "operation_id": "c12178fa55a298e8d72ed2104a504be6890c9a2d837dc49ba8b69aa22341be64",
      "series_key": "market_price",
      "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
      "choice": "under 2.5",
      "decimal_odds": "2.7200",
      "odds_role": "market_price",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
      "status_text": "Executed",
      "result": "loss",
      "result_words": "Lost",
      "change_hundredths": -10000,
      "executed_at": "2026-11-05T14:07:59.111Z",
      "methodology_version": "2.2",
      "on_claim_market": true,
      "replaced": false
     }
    ],
    "corrections": [],
    "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
    "authorship": {
     "material_author": "Simon",
     "publisher": "Wettformat",
     "forecaster": "Simon",
     "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
     "basis": null,
     "status": "not_named",
     "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
     "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
     "evidence_fragment": null,
     "material_url": "https://wettformat.com/de/wett-tipp/1-fc-nuernberg-sv-darmstadt-98-2026-11-07-tipp-prognose-275102",
     "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
     "verdict_by": null,
     "verdict_line": null
    },
    "correction": null,
    "choice_words": "under 2.5 (Over/Under 2.5 goals)"
   }
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-56c69a96e5afcd20016e5683",
   "url": "/authors/simon/picks/21/#pick-n-56c69a96e5afcd20016e5683",
   "match": "Leeds United v Tottenham Hotspur",
   "match_url": "/football/matches/leeds-united-vs-tottenham-hotspur-2026-11-07/",
   "kickoff": "2026-11-07T12:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": 65.8,
   "market_code": "total",
   "author_said": "Over/Under 2.5 goals: over 2.5",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "1-0",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "market_price",
   "series_short": "odds snapshot",
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": "1.9091",
   "published_at": "2026-11-04T17:32:11.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-11-04T18:39:42.102Z",
   "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
   "record_part": "live",
   "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off",
   "in_headline": true,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": {
    "outcome": "under",
    "price": "1.8734",
    "result": "Won",
    "points_hundredths": 8734,
    "picked_favourite": false
   },
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-56c69a96e5afcd20016e5683",
    "quote_text": "weshalb wir in weiterer Folge den Tipp Über 2,5 Tore empfehlen.",
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   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
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   "quote": "Doppelte Chance Tipp X/2\n\n1.93",
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  ],
  "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out."
 },
 "pagination": {
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  "total": 415,
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  "page_urls": [
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   "/authors/simon/picks/13/",
   "/authors/simon/picks/14/",
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  ],
  "groups": {
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   "pending": 5,
   "excluded": 357
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  "continuation": "by_time",
  "page": 1,
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  "last": 20,
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  "current": true
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 "title_tag": "Simon Predictions: This Week's Picks & Verified Record",
 "calculator": {
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  "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price"
 },
 "person": {
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  "name_shown": "Simon",
  "main_entity": "e-509c7aadd81b0ac931c3cdfd",
  "identity": {
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 },
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    "text": "−36.09% on 40 settled picks across 30 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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    "text": "−30.91% on 37 settled picks across 29 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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    "text": "−27.05% on 33 settled picks across 27 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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    "text": "−29.88% on 28 settled picks across 22 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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    "text": "−30.26% on 26 settled picks across 20 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
    "added": 1,
    "removed": 0,
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   },
   "correction_id": null
  },
  {
   "id": "zc-14ec783cbf30d7273475",
   "at": "2026-11-01T19:56:40.745Z",
   "data_version": "2026-11-01.3",
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   "url": "/authors/simon/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
   "category_words": "Coverage extended",
   "before": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-31.2",
    "return_percent": "-28.18",
    "settled_picks": 23,
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    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "0a77df3b5b7dc83dd0c47a45356518bc2ae4a58fca014e48f200ac6cfe8526ed",
    "text": "−28.18% on 23 settled picks across 17 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-11-01.3",
    "return_percent": "-33.93",
    "settled_picks": 25,
    "matches": 19,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
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    "composition_hash": "dfcb1eee1d0ea5c2eb50f6baf86b53b3ab0a56e0c61a82a8d3f40014735b2920",
    "text": "−33.93% on 25 settled picks across 19 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
    "added": 2,
    "removed": 0,
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   },
   "correction_id": null
  },
  {
   "id": "zc-e1a8d5f6af8eb9cb1b46",
   "at": "2026-10-31T21:01:38.334Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-31.2",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-31.1",
   "url": "/authors/simon/",
   "category": "new_results",
   "category_words": "New results",
   "before": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-30.1",
    "return_percent": "-24.92",
    "settled_picks": 22,
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    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
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    "composition_hash": "1e12941b5c6e618d01ee4ebf2d7c0c96bd058dec62226250d775e4d131feeb9c",
    "text": "−24.92% on 22 settled picks across 16 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-31.2",
    "return_percent": "-28.18",
    "settled_picks": 23,
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    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
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    "composition_hash": "0a77df3b5b7dc83dd0c47a45356518bc2ae4a58fca014e48f200ac6cfe8526ed",
    "text": "−28.18% on 23 settled picks across 17 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous data version.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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    "removed": 0,
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   },
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  },
  {
   "id": "zc-c7ef15a150288a23df62",
   "at": "2026-10-30T08:26:41.528Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-30.1",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-29.1",
   "url": "/authors/simon/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
   "category_words": "Coverage extended",
   "before": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-27.1",
    "return_percent": "-29.01",
    "settled_picks": 21,
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    "series_code": "market_price",
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    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "792fb617ed46e6959f7969863c44f170a18f7a7856db1c52156edece541183a6",
    "text": "−29.01% on 21 settled picks across 15 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-30.1",
    "return_percent": "-24.92",
    "settled_picks": 22,
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    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
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    "composition_hash": "1e12941b5c6e618d01ee4ebf2d7c0c96bd058dec62226250d775e4d131feeb9c",
    "text": "−24.92% on 22 settled picks across 16 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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    "removed": 0,
    "changed": 0
   },
   "correction_id": null
  },
  {
   "id": "zc-1a0105b25d36904362ee",
   "at": "2026-10-27T07:47:02.386Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-27.1",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-26.1",
   "url": "/authors/simon/",
   "category": "new_results",
   "category_words": "New results",
   "before": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-24.5",
    "return_percent": "-24.65",
    "settled_picks": 17,
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    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
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    "composition_hash": "d557c4833d71f4d97dd09cdbbe8e4f355ababf7ec01188aee7a8eac132f10e6e",
    "text": "−24.65% on 17 settled picks across 13 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-27.1",
    "return_percent": "-29.01",
    "settled_picks": 21,
    "matches": 15,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "792fb617ed46e6959f7969863c44f170a18f7a7856db1c52156edece541183a6",
    "text": "−29.01% on 21 settled picks across 15 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "4 new settled picks from matches played after the previous data version.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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    "removed": 0,
    "changed": 0
   },
   "correction_id": null
  },
  {
   "id": "zc-9bc8aa489b1152ab81b3",
   "at": "2026-10-25T01:37:51.007Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-24.5",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-24.4",
   "url": "/authors/simon/",
   "category": "new_results",
   "category_words": "New results",
   "before": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-24.4",
    "return_percent": "-19.30",
    "settled_picks": 14,
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    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "9629cb490a53355afa57307e21aedf76b280fb877f488a0b723ecffdac5fba0c",
    "text": "−19.30% on 14 settled picks across 11 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-24.5",
    "return_percent": "-24.65",
    "settled_picks": 17,
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    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
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    "composition_hash": "d557c4833d71f4d97dd09cdbbe8e4f355ababf7ec01188aee7a8eac132f10e6e",
    "text": "−24.65% on 17 settled picks across 13 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "3 new settled picks from matches played after the previous data version.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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    "removed": 0,
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   },
   "correction_id": null
  },
  {
   "id": "zc-6052261b2d7ab5755202",
   "at": "2026-10-24T16:52:01.947Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-24.4",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-24.3",
   "url": "/authors/simon/",
   "category": "new_results",
   "category_words": "New results",
   "before": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-22.4",
    "return_percent": "1.53",
    "settled_picks": 8,
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    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "ab59e8ec1e39b9efdeb28ed450394be480f3e3972f70c6bc4a42cbda0da467fd",
    "text": "+12.28 points on 8 settled picks across 8 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-24.4",
    "return_percent": "-19.30",
    "settled_picks": 14,
    "matches": 11,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "9629cb490a53355afa57307e21aedf76b280fb877f488a0b723ecffdac5fba0c",
    "text": "−19.30% on 14 settled picks across 11 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "6 new settled picks from matches played after the previous data version.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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    "removed": 0,
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   },
   "correction_id": null
  },
  {
   "id": "zc-75733bb3477a8ef648bd",
   "at": "2026-10-22T13:04:00.441Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-22.4",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-22.3",
   "url": "/authors/simon/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
   "category_words": "Coverage extended",
   "before": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-20.8",
    "return_percent": "-18.25",
    "settled_picks": 7,
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    "series_code": "market_price",
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    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "e060181360097e025dedc832104a8b27c82c821b223deebc6c6cfa45e64aaf56",
    "text": "−127.72 points on 7 settled picks across 7 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-22.4",
    "return_percent": "1.53",
    "settled_picks": 8,
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    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
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    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "ab59e8ec1e39b9efdeb28ed450394be480f3e3972f70c6bc4a42cbda0da467fd",
    "text": "+12.28 points on 8 settled picks across 8 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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    "removed": 0,
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   },
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  },
  {
   "id": "zc-d6c6978697acbb58a0f1",
   "at": "2026-10-20T21:29:02.148Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-20.8",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-20.7",
   "url": "/authors/simon/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
   "category_words": "Coverage extended",
   "before": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-20.7",
    "return_percent": "-28.21",
    "settled_picks": 4,
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    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
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    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "81502d696d45375609586b21b18e88352cec86064c442b7cb783dbda146de68d",
    "text": "−112.83 points on 4 settled picks across 4 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-20.8",
    "return_percent": "-18.25",
    "settled_picks": 7,
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    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
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    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "e060181360097e025dedc832104a8b27c82c821b223deebc6c6cfa45e64aaf56",
    "text": "−127.72 points on 7 settled picks across 7 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 3 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
    "added": 3,
    "removed": 0,
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   },
   "correction_id": null
  },
  {
   "id": "zc-cdab2b0b33a56ee60369",
   "at": "2026-10-20T19:39:34.694Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-20.7",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-20.6",
   "url": "/authors/simon/",
   "category": "new_results",
   "category_words": "New results",
   "before": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-19.7",
    "return_percent": "-47.62",
    "settled_picks": 3,
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    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "7d2efcda33c2232e7718881760b2252bc6e2851d228c742827f41478b5921ed5",
    "text": "−142.86 points on 3 settled picks across 3 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-20.7",
    "return_percent": "-28.21",
    "settled_picks": 4,
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    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "81502d696d45375609586b21b18e88352cec86064c442b7cb783dbda146de68d",
    "text": "−112.83 points on 4 settled picks across 4 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous data version.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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   },
   "correction_id": null
  },
  {
   "id": "zc-64c0af72e6c95298b7c8",
   "at": "2026-10-19T23:18:20.062Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-19.7",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-19.6",
   "url": "/authors/simon/",
   "category": "new_results",
   "category_words": "New results",
   "before": {
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    "return_percent": "-100.00",
    "settled_picks": 2,
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    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "53d0650836312a7e7bd36e5b6a78f7f08cf62aae85e6f7a8fc05548b4718ad5d",
    "text": "−200.00 points on 2 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-19.7",
    "return_percent": "-47.62",
    "settled_picks": 3,
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    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "7d2efcda33c2232e7718881760b2252bc6e2851d228c742827f41478b5921ed5",
    "text": "−142.86 points on 3 settled picks across 3 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous data version.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
    "added": 1,
    "removed": 0,
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   },
   "correction_id": null
  },
  {
   "id": "zc-2490c65a36539c8d8889",
   "at": "2026-10-19T19:39:27.559Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-19.6",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-19.5",
   "url": "/authors/simon/",
   "category": "data_corrected",
   "category_words": "Data corrected",
   "before": {
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    "return_percent": "-55.50",
    "settled_picks": 3,
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    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
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    "composition_hash": "f6d6bf20b5c8c8a11a51c249b2efa789def7d4b367f5164f259ed44bf45b5f91",
    "text": "−166.51 points on 3 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-19.6",
    "return_percent": "-100.00",
    "settled_picks": 2,
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    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "53d0650836312a7e7bd36e5b6a78f7f08cf62aae85e6f7a8fc05548b4718ad5d",
    "text": "−200.00 points on 2 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Data corrected: 1 pick left the headline sample.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
    "added": 0,
    "removed": 1,
    "changed": 0
   },
   "correction_id": "i-7fbb6205add72452d82b"
  },
  {
   "id": "zc-2c6597d46330635d3a50",
   "at": "2026-10-17T20:13:03.224Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-17.4",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-17.3",
   "url": "/authors/simon/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
   "category_words": "Coverage extended",
   "before": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-16.5",
    "return_percent": "-33.26",
    "settled_picks": 2,
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    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
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    "composition_hash": "7b75e6249de8f52561a8ee1a70f3b27ca1b6f8f9af01879ee48b3618c85e2b41",
    "text": "−66.51 points on 2 settled picks across 1 match · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-17.4",
    "return_percent": "-55.50",
    "settled_picks": 3,
    "matches": 2,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "f6d6bf20b5c8c8a11a51c249b2efa789def7d4b367f5164f259ed44bf45b5f91",
    "text": "−166.51 points on 3 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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    "removed": 0,
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   },
   "correction_id": null
  },
  {
   "id": "zc-76eb349a9e88b25ad48b",
   "at": "2026-10-16T17:26:36.835Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-16.5",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-16.4",
   "url": "/authors/simon/",
   "category": "data_corrected",
   "category_words": "Data corrected",
   "before": {
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    "return_percent": "-26.38",
    "settled_picks": 4,
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    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "86ab3abae45630f1c241f766bc9d0106003479ec1018acb38d9f042b396d03a0",
    "text": "−105.53 points on 4 settled picks across 3 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-16.5",
    "return_percent": "-33.26",
    "settled_picks": 2,
    "matches": 1,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "7b75e6249de8f52561a8ee1a70f3b27ca1b6f8f9af01879ee48b3618c85e2b41",
    "text": "−66.51 points on 2 settled picks across 1 match · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Data corrected: 2 picks left the headline sample.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
    "added": 0,
    "removed": 2,
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   },
   "correction_id": "i-eb08c9d50a00bb16f5e7"
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 ],
 "current_predictions": {
  "total_count": 3,
  "on_date": "2026-11-07T19:52",
  "row_list": [
   {
    "record_id": "n-dd091e9c8f16dc5ff8313f53",
    "url": "/authors/simon/picks/21/#pick-n-dd091e9c8f16dc5ff8313f53",
    "match": "VfL Bochum v Karlsruher SC",
    "match_url": "/football/matches/vfl-bochum-vs-karlsruher-sc-2026-11-08/",
    "kickoff": "2026-11-08T12:30:00.000Z",
    "competition": "2. Bundesliga",
    "author_said": "Both teams to score: yes at 1.53",
    "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "recorded_at": "2026-11-06T09:19:51.758Z",
    "platform": null
   },
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  "refreshed_at": "2026-11-07",
  "html": "<a href=\"https://forecastrecord.com/authors/simon/\">Record tracked by Forecast Record since 11 October 2026 · 415 predictions · last change 7 November 2026</a>"
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 "data_changes": {
  "added_later": "14 records added on 11 Oct 2026 found after the match; 8 records added on 12 Oct 2026 found after the match. The current numbers include them; numbers published earlier, including the record before each match, do not change.",
  "records_corrected": 1,
  "last_correction_at": "2026-10-19T19:39:27.559Z",
  "corrections_url": "/corrections/",
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   "url": "/cards/e-509c7aadd81b0ac931c3cdfd-turning-point/",
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}