{ "schema_name": "page", "schema_version": "2.0", "page_type": "author", "url": "/authors/shane-o-brien/", "canonical": "/authors/shane-o-brien/", "language": "en", "hreflang": [], "translations": [], "heading": "Shane O'Brien: Football Prediction Record", "description": "2 settled picks by Shane O'Brien archived before kick-off across 2 matches, 19 Jan 2025: won 2 of 2, reconstructed at archived prices.", "first_paragraph": { "body": "Forecast Record restored 2 settled archived picks by Shane O'Brien from copies archived before kick-off, across 2 matches on 19 January 2025. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 2 of 2 settled archived picks. Of the 15 predictions we hold for Shane O'Brien, 7 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 8 first found after the match. 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They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.", "page_category": "author" }, "restrictions": { "name_withdrawn": false, "tracker_number": null, "withdrawn_quotes": [], "removed_at": null, "cause": null, "suspended_records": [], "withdrawal_log_number": 0 }, "page_links": { "methodology": "/methodology/", "right_of_reply": "/right-of-reply/", "source_coverage": "/coverage/", "corrections_log": "/corrections/", "api": "/api/", "claim": "/claim/" }, "entity": { "id": "e-0e5842b5732fde35b8ac30e3", "public_name": "Shane O'Brien", "tracker_number": 1911, "status": "active", "inactive_since": null, "verified_creator": false, "observation_period": { "since": "2026-09-30", "until": "2026-09-30" }, "platform_list": [ { "medium": "website", "handle": null, "url": null, "link_confirmed": false, "show": true } ], "comment": null }, "headline_number": { "metric": { "metric_id": "p-e-0e5842b5732fde35b8ac30e3-roi-market-price-90d-z99", "code_name": "roi_market_price", "display_name": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot", "window_kind": "90d", "window_from": "2026-08-09", "window_to": "2026-11-07", "amount": null, "unit": "percent", "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "no pick in this window has been settled", "n_bets": 0, "n_events": 0, "n_void": null, "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "ci_method": "not_estimated", "price_source": "market_price", "coverage_percent": null, "breakdown": [], "methodology_version": "2.2", "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "enough_for_ranking": false, "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot" }, "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 0 settled picks across 0 matches", "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, "metrics": [], "history": [], "simulation": { "series_key": null, "series_label": "No level stake placed", "bankroll_hundredths": 1000000, "reserve_hundredths": 0, "issued_total_hundredths": 1000000, "initial_hundredths": 1000000, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "top_up_count": 0, "profit_hundredths": 0, "rewards_off": null, "data_points": [], "top_ups": [], "rule": "Every tracked author starts with 10,000 points and stakes 100 per qualifying pick. This author has 0 settled bets, so the bankroll stands at its starting value." }, "simulations": [], "completeness": { "detected": 33, "recognised": 15, "accepted": 4, "executed": 4, "calculated": 3, "gaps": [ { "cause": "not_supported", "figure": 8 }, { "cause": "read after the match, from archived pages", "figure": 3 } ] }, "record_counts": { "dictionary_version": "1", "statements": 33, "of_them_restored": 33, "not_predictions": { "opinions": 0, "not_about_a_match": 18, "unclassified": 0 }, "predictions": 15, "predictions_restored": 15, "matches": 0, "admitted": 4, "qualifying_picks": 4, "qualifying_picks_restored": 4, "settled_picks": 3, "settled_picks_restored": 3, "series_list": [ { "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm", "derived": false, "is_restored": true, "qualifying_picks": 4, "settled_picks": 3, "void": 0, "pending_picks": 1, "matches": 3, "operations_settled": 3, "stakes_hundredths": [ 10000 ], "methodologies": [ "retro-1.1" ], "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)" } ], "gaps": [ { "code_name": "not_supported", "cause": "not_supported", "figure": 8 }, { "code_name": "after_match", "cause": "read after the match, from archived pages", "figure": 3 } ], "duplicates": 0, "junk": { "service": 3, "ads": 1 }, "dictionary_url": "/methodology/#words" }, "evidence_items": [ { "observation_id": "n-6610bed6359d5a7bbaf25e22", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-6610bed6359d5a7bbaf25e22", "quote_text": "A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 21/1 with Paddy Power.", "fragment_from": 742, "fragment_to": 816, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250723230511id_/https://news.paddypower.com/football/2025/01/14/football-tips-tuesday-21-1-premier-league-bet-builder-january-14/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Shane O'Brien", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "bdeb0d4864e6dccb29da54cb983e853cb807e98ba7cf2840edd6c81c312eedfd", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2025-01-14T16:31:41.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:51:08.578Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "ambiguous", "cause": "", "cause_code": "ambiguous", "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "found_post_match", "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2025-01-14T16:31:41.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2025-01-14T16:31:41.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:51:08.578Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "found_after_match", "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-29ebfa6d0b505b8240aebadc", "url": "/authors/shane-o-brien/#pick-n-29ebfa6d0b505b8240aebadc", "quote_text": "Cole Palmer to score anytime", "fragment_from": 712, "fragment_to": 740, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250723230511id_/https://news.paddypower.com/football/2025/01/14/football-tips-tuesday-21-1-premier-league-bet-builder-january-14/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Shane O'Brien", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "bdeb0d4864e6dccb29da54cb983e853cb807e98ba7cf2840edd6c81c312eedfd", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2025-01-14T16:31:41.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:51:08.578Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "unpriced", "status": "too_late", "cause": "", "cause_code": "too_late", "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "found_post_match", "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2025-01-14T16:31:41.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2025-01-14T16:31:41.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:51:08.578Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "found_after_match", "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-09908dd009aa0bec0e6229d6", "url": "/authors/shane-o-brien/#pick-n-09908dd009aa0bec0e6229d6", "quote_text": "Fulham goalkeeper to make 4+ saves", "fragment_from": 645, "fragment_to": 679, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250723230511id_/https://news.paddypower.com/football/2025/01/14/football-tips-tuesday-21-1-premier-league-bet-builder-january-14/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Shane O'Brien", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "bdeb0d4864e6dccb29da54cb983e853cb807e98ba7cf2840edd6c81c312eedfd", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2025-01-14T16:31:41.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:51:08.578Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "unpriced", "status": "not_supported", "cause": "", "cause_code": "not_supported", "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "found_post_match", "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2025-01-14T16:31:41.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2025-01-14T16:31:41.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:51:08.578Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "found_after_match", "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-5e622d8b581a0fa12e4af001", "url": "/authors/shane-o-brien/#pick-n-5e622d8b581a0fa12e4af001", "quote_text": "Over 2.5 goals", "fragment_from": 626, "fragment_to": 640, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250723230511id_/https://news.paddypower.com/football/2025/01/14/football-tips-tuesday-21-1-premier-league-bet-builder-january-14/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Shane O'Brien", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "bdeb0d4864e6dccb29da54cb983e853cb807e98ba7cf2840edd6c81c312eedfd", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2025-01-14T16:31:41.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:51:08.578Z", "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:43.585Z", "statement_class": "unpriced", "status": "too_late", "cause": "counted in the restored-history series", "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": null, "display_name": "West Ham United v Fulham", "competition_name": "Premier League", "starts_at": "2025-01-14T19:30:00.000Z", "url": null, "scoreline": "3-2" }, "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals", "outcome_label": "over 2.5", "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": "1.9100", "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)" }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "win", "simulation_change_hundredths": 9100, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": "ours", "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "found_post_match", "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2025-01-14T16:31:41.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2025-01-14T16:31:41.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:51:08.578Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "found_after_match", "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals", "choice": "over 2.5", "author_odds": null, "market_key": "total", "choice_key": "over", "period": "match", "line": "2.5", "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Over/Under 2.5 goals: over 2.5" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "win", "scoreline": "3-2", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "retro-1.1", "in_words": "Won: the final score was West Ham United 3-2 Fulham." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "ae7184c88ce611a4bb10af2882596c7587ff961c880cc8f607d74ae72553c001", "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm", "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals", "choice": "over 2.5", "decimal_odds": "1.9100", "odds_role": "closing_odds", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "win", "result_words": "Won", "change_hundredths": 9100, "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:43.585Z", "methodology_version": "retro-1.1", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "settled_pick", "authorship": { "material_author": "Shane O'Brien", "publisher": "news.paddypower.com", "forecaster": "Shane O’Brien", "forecaster_named_in_text": true, "basis": null, "status": "matches_source", "status_words": "Named in the source as the tipster", "status_note": null, "evidence_fragment": "Our tipster, Shane O’Brien, is all over the games, and he has put together a tidy Bet Builder for you lucky lot. Let’s get to it! Premier League Bet Builder tips 7:30pm Brentford v Man", "material_url": "https://news.paddypower.com/football/2025/01/14/football-tips-tuesday-21-1-premier-league-bet-builder-january-14/", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-abc3877afda732e9f6e40620", "url": "/authors/shane-o-brien/#pick-n-abc3877afda732e9f6e40620", "quote_text": "Under 3.5 cards", "fragment_from": 582, "fragment_to": 597, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250723230511id_/https://news.paddypower.com/football/2025/01/14/football-tips-tuesday-21-1-premier-league-bet-builder-january-14/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Shane O'Brien", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "bdeb0d4864e6dccb29da54cb983e853cb807e98ba7cf2840edd6c81c312eedfd", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2025-01-14T16:31:41.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:51:08.578Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "unpriced", "status": "too_late", "cause": "counted in the restored-history series", "cause_code": "not_supported", "event": { "event_id": null, "display_name": "Brentford v Manchester City", "competition_name": "Premier League", "starts_at": "2025-01-14T19:30:00.000Z", "url": null, "scoreline": null }, "market_label": "Over/Under 3.5 cards", "outcome_label": "under 3.5", "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": "1.9800", "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)" }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "unknown", "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "found_post_match", "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2025-01-14T16:31:41.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2025-01-14T16:31:41.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:51:08.578Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "found_after_match", "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Over/Under 3.5 cards", "choice": "under 3.5", "author_odds": null, "market_key": "cards_over_under", "choice_key": "under", "period": "match", "line": "3.5", "subject": "bookings", "in_words": "Over/Under 3.5 cards: under 3.5" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "unknown", "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "awaiting a final score for this restored pick", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Pending: awaiting a final score for this restored pick." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "f410486e87a3875d6690da97d1849f03bfdd1b5959fd7b470bf7524fbed2ac04", "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm", "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Over/Under 3.5 cards", "choice": "under 3.5", "decimal_odds": "1.9800", "odds_role": "closing_odds", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "skipped", "status_text": "Not executed: not settled", "result": "unknown", "result_words": "Pending", "change_hundredths": null, "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:43.572Z", "methodology_version": "retro-1.1", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": { "material_author": "Shane O'Brien", "publisher": "news.paddypower.com", "forecaster": "Shane O’Brien", "forecaster_named_in_text": true, "basis": null, "status": "matches_source", "status_words": "Named in the source as the tipster", "status_note": null, "evidence_fragment": "Our tipster, Shane O’Brien, is all over the games, and he has put together a tidy Bet Builder for you lucky lot. Let’s get to it! 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The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and the outcome is worked out on it. This pick was never executed, so no number changes." } ], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": null, "correction": { "at": "2026-10-14T02:00:57.143Z", "field": "line sign", "reason": "Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and the outcome is worked out on it. This pick was never executed, so no number changes.", "version": 2, "url": "/corrections/#c-f1b2048399e9", "text": "Corrected on 14 October 2026: Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and" } }, { "observation_id": "n-eba25da5631d165a0dafbced", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-eba25da5631d165a0dafbced", "quote_text": "THE PADDY POWER GUIDE TO SAFER GAMBLING – EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW", "fragment_from": 5019, "fragment_to": 5088, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250316190507id_/https://news.paddypower.com/football/2025/03/16/leicester-man-united-tips-sunday-30-1-premier-league-bet-builder-16-march/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Shane O'Brien", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "333062ef08c2eeb20e26ddcb23fe5de5ba334574d59fc64aca662a1386cc6f8f", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2025-03-16T16:37:34.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-30T00:32:30.670Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "found_post_match", "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2025-03-16T16:37:34.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2025-03-16T16:37:34.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-30T00:32:30.670Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "found_after_match", "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-165aeb9dcb9ef09971582434", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-165aeb9dcb9ef09971582434", "quote_text": "The latest football odds are on PaddyPower.com now", "fragment_from": 4967, "fragment_to": 5017, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250316190507id_/https://news.paddypower.com/football/2025/03/16/leicester-man-united-tips-sunday-30-1-premier-league-bet-builder-16-march/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Shane O'Brien", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "333062ef08c2eeb20e26ddcb23fe5de5ba334574d59fc64aca662a1386cc6f8f", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2025-03-16T16:37:34.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-30T00:32:30.670Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "found_post_match", "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2025-03-16T16:37:34.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2025-03-16T16:37:34.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-30T00:32:30.670Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "found_after_match", "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-9ae247243560ec835266522a", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-9ae247243560ec835266522a", "quote_text": "Paddy’s Super Sub totaliser: Almost 100,000 EPL bets win from our ace offer so far in 2024/25", "fragment_from": 4872, "fragment_to": 4965, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250316190507id_/https://news.paddypower.com/football/2025/03/16/leicester-man-united-tips-sunday-30-1-premier-league-bet-builder-16-march/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Shane O'Brien", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "333062ef08c2eeb20e26ddcb23fe5de5ba334574d59fc64aca662a1386cc6f8f", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2025-03-16T16:37:34.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-30T00:32:30.670Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "found_post_match", "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2025-03-16T16:37:34.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2025-03-16T16:37:34.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-30T00:32:30.670Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "found_after_match", "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null } ], "excluded_from_feed": { "ads": 1, "service": 3, "ruleset_version": "3" }, "standing": null, "retro": { "restored_total": 3, "of_them_archived_pre_match": 2, "found_post_match": 1, "of_them_source_reported": 0, "live_count": 0, "date_count": 2, "span_from": "2025-01-14", "span_to": "2025-01-19", "line_text": "restored history: 3, of which pre-match archive 2", "body": "We re-read what this author published before Premier League matches between 14 January 2025 and 19 January 2025 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 3. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 2. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 1. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.", "precision": { "n": 3, "share": "1.0" }, "series_list": [ { "code_name": "retro_author_price", "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price", "n": 0, "roi": null, "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "data_status": "unknown", "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "cause": "no restored pick with this price" }, { "code_name": "retro_market_closing", "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price", "n": 0, "roi": null, "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "data_status": "unknown", "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "cause": "no restored pick with this price" }, { "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm", "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "n": 3, "roi": "51.3333", "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "data_status": "calculated", "methodology_version": "retro-1.1", "cause": null } ], "clv": { "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above" }, "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "leagues": [ "Premier League" ], "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 0 settled restored picks and forecasts, and the two agree; 3 come from one provider only. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged." }, "late": null, "price_vs_market": null, "record_summary": { "contract_version": "1", "entity_type": "person", "entity_words": "Individual author", "source": { "name": "news.paddypower.com", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250723230511id_/https://news.paddypower.com/football/2025/01/14/football-tips-tuesday-21-1-premier-league-bet-builder-january-14/" }, "observed_from": "2026-09-30", "observed_to": "2026-09-30", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "state": "settled", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "series": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "restored": true, "headline_kind": "historical_simulation", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 2, "matches": 2, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": 6300, "staked_hundredths": 20000, "return_percent": "31.50", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "period_from": "2025-01-19", "period_to": "2025-01-19", "status": "calculated", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "short_history": true, "reason": null, "reasons": [], "sentence": "Forecast Record restored 2 settled archived picks by Shane O'Brien from copies archived before kick-off, across 2 matches on 19 January 2025. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 2 of 2 settled archived picks. Of the 15 predictions we hold for Shane O'Brien, 7 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 8 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "numbers": [ { "label": "Settled archived picks", "value": "2", "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick", "note": null }, { "label": "Matches", "value": "2", "anchor": "/methodology/#match", "note": null }, { "label": "Net result", "value": "+63 points", "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement", "note": "100 points per pick" }, { "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "value": "+31.5%", "anchor": "/methodology/#roi", "note": null } ], "limitations": [ "Most of this history was found after the matches. Of the 3 selections in this historical price series, 2 have a pre-match archive copy and 1 was first found after the match.", "Reconstructed at archived prices: these picks were restored from copies of the author’s pages that an independent web archive saved before kick-off, at the last pre-match archive prices, bookmaker margin included." ], "other_series": [], "return_over_time": [], "return_over_time_parts": { "live": null, "archived": { "part": "archived", "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "x_axis": "match_date", "dated_note": "Dated by match day. These picks were restored from copies an independent web archive saved before kick-off; the line shows how they settled at archived prices.", "settled_picks": 2, "matches": 2, "match_dates": 1, "period_from": "2025-01-19", "period_to": "2025-01-19", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "final_points_hundredths": 6300, "low": { "date": "2025-01-19", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 6300, "after_picks": 2 }, "high": { "date": "2025-01-19", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 6300, "after_picks": 2 }, "line_drawn": false, "steps": [ { "date": "2025-01-19", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 6300, "n": 2, "picks": 2 } ] } }, "author_response": null, "cite": { "text": "Forecast Record restored 2 settled archived picks by Shane O'Brien from copies archived before kick-off, across 2 matches on 19 January 2025. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 2 of 2 settled archived picks. Of the 15 predictions we hold for Shane O'Brien, 7 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 8 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/shane-o-brien/", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "retro-1.1" }, "origin": { "contract_version": "1", "predictions": 15, "under_review": 0, "no_match_linked": 0, "proven_predictions": 7, "proven_checked": 2, "proven_measured": 2, "proven_dates": 1, "parts": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.", "predictions": 0, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "series_code": "market_price", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null }, { "code": "archived", "title": "Archived before kick-off", "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.", "predictions": 7, "checked": 2, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": { "settled_picks": 2, "void": 0, "matches": 2, "net_points_hundredths": 6300, "staked_hundredths": 20000, "return_percent": "31.50", "interval_low": null, "interval_high": null, "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval", "period_from": "2025-01-19", "period_to": "2025-01-19", "method_version": "retro-1.1" }, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 2, "priced": 2 }, "accuracy": { "picks": 2, "won": 2, "won_percent": "100.0", "implied_percent": "80.1", "left_out": 0, "by_market": [ { "market": "Both teams to score", "won": 1, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "62.1" }, { "market": "Corners over/under", "won": 1, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "98.0" } ] } }, { "code": "found_after", "title": "Found after the match", "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.", "predictions": 8, "checked": 1, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": { "settled_picks": 1, "void": 0, "matches": 1, "net_points_hundredths": 9100, "staked_hundredths": 10000, "return_percent": "91.00", "interval_low": null, "interval_high": null, "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval", "period_from": "2025-01-14", "period_to": "2025-01-14", "method_version": "retro-1.1" }, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 1, "priced": 1 }, "accuracy": { "picks": 1, "won": 1, "won_percent": "100.0", "implied_percent": "52.4", "left_out": 0, "by_market": [ { "market": "Over/under goals", "won": 1, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "52.4" } ] } } ] }, "live_alongside": null, "headline_record_ids": [ "n-8f6eac8ed25b8f3476433e22", "n-94bb9ade6d3860235499df12" ], "interval_low": null, "interval_high": null, "caption": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) · 100 points per pick · 19 January 2025 · Calculated · picks settled under reconstruction method 1.1", "record_from": "2025-01-14", "record_to": "2025-01-19" }, "recorded_picks": [ { "record_id": "n-8f6eac8ed25b8f3476433e22", "url": null, "match": "Nottingham Forest v Southampton", "match_url": null, "kickoff": "2025-01-19T14:00:00.000Z", "competition": "Premier League", "lead_hours": -14857.7, "market_code": "corners_total", "author_said": "Over/Under 6.5 corners: over 6.5", "quote": null, "group": "settled", "outcome": "Won", "claim_outcome": "Won", "final_score": "3-2", "reason": null, "reason_code": null, "points_hundredths": 200, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored", "author_price": null, "settled_price": "1.0200", "published_at": "2025-01-19T11:01:32.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:44:35.520Z", "origin": "Archived before kick-off", "record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": true, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-94bb9ade6d3860235499df12", "url": null, "match": "Manchester United v Brighton & Hove Albion", "match_url": null, "kickoff": "2025-01-19T14:00:00.000Z", "competition": "Premier League", "lead_hours": -14857.7, "market_code": "both_teams_score", "author_said": "Both teams to score: yes", "quote": null, "group": "settled", "outcome": "Won", "claim_outcome": "Won", "final_score": "1-3", "reason": null, "reason_code": null, "points_hundredths": 6100, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored", "author_price": null, "settled_price": "1.6100", "published_at": "2025-01-19T11:01:32.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:44:35.520Z", "origin": "Archived before kick-off", "record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": true, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-5e622d8b581a0fa12e4af001", "url": null, "match": "West Ham United v Fulham", "match_url": null, "kickoff": "2025-01-14T19:30:00.000Z", "competition": "Premier League", "lead_hours": -14972.4, "market_code": "total", "author_said": "Over/Under 2.5 goals: over 2.5", "quote": null, "group": "settled", "outcome": "Won", "claim_outcome": "Won", "final_score": "3-2", "reason": null, "reason_code": null, "points_hundredths": 9100, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored", "author_price": null, "settled_price": "1.9100", "published_at": "2025-01-14T16:31:41.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:51:08.578Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-abc3877afda732e9f6e40620", "url": null, "match": "Brentford v Manchester City", "match_url": null, "kickoff": "2025-01-14T19:30:00.000Z", "competition": "Premier League", "lead_hours": -14972.4, "market_code": "cards_over_under", "author_said": "Over/Under 3.5 cards: under 3.5", "quote": null, "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "counted in the restored-history series", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-01-14T16:31:41.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:51:08.578Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-40ad2800a15bf1a8ffcb12a8", "url": "/authors/shane-o-brien/#pick-n-40ad2800a15bf1a8ffcb12a8", "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Bruno Fernandes to have 2+ shots on target", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-03-16T16:37:34.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T00:32:30.670Z", "origin": "Found after the match; 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The line now matches the source and" }, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-40ad2800a15bf1a8ffcb12a8", "quote_text": "Bruno Fernandes to have 2+ shots on target", "fragment_from": 894, "fragment_to": 936, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250316190507id_/https://news.paddypower.com/football/2025/03/16/leicester-man-united-tips-sunday-30-1-premier-league-bet-builder-16-march/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Shane O'Brien", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "333062ef08c2eeb20e26ddcb23fe5de5ba334574d59fc64aca662a1386cc6f8f", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2025-03-16T16:37:34.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-30T00:32:30.670Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "unpriced", "status": "not_supported", "cause": "", "cause_code": "not_supported", "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "found_post_match", "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2025-03-16T16:37:34.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2025-03-16T16:37:34.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-30T00:32:30.670Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "found_after_match", "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [ { "at": "2026-10-14T02:00:57.143Z", "field_name": "line sign", "was": "leg 3: Over/Under −9.5 corners · under −9.5", "now": "leg 3: Over/Under 9.5 corners · under 9.5", "cause": "Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and the outcome is worked out on it. This pick was never executed, so no number changes." } ], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": null, "correction": { "at": "2026-10-14T02:00:57.143Z", "field": "line sign", "reason": "Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and the outcome is worked out on it. This pick was never executed, so no number changes.", "version": 2, "url": "/corrections/#c-f1b2048399e9", "text": "Corrected on 14 October 2026: Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. 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"record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-1616e79a2e2728aa6dfface0", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Manchester United to receive the most cards", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-01-19T11:01:32.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:44:35.520Z", "origin": "Archived before kick-off", "record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, 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"n-09908dd009aa0bec0e6229d6", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Fulham goalkeeper to make 4+ saves", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-01-14T16:31:41.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:51:08.578Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-7770f06d26896595649430b6", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Bryan Mbeumo to have 1+ shots on target", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-01-14T16:31:41.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:51:08.578Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null } ], "lead_time": { "contract_version": 1, "threshold_hours": 2.0, "picks": 4, "before_kickoff": 0, "after_kickoff": 4, "at_least_2h": 0, "share_2h_plus": 0.0, "median_hours": null, "min_hours": null, "max_hours": null, "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off." }, "baseline": { "contract_version": 1, "series_code": "market_price", "rule": "recorded-line-1.0", "state": "none", "picks": 0, "settled_picks_all": 0, "excluded": { "market_without_favourite": 0, "no_recorded_line": 0, "favourite_not_settled": 0 }, "staked_hundredths": 0, "author_net_hundredths": 0, "favourite_net_hundredths": 0, "difference_hundredths": 0, "author_return_percent": null, "favourite_return_percent": null, "author_hit_rate": null, "favourite_hit_rate": null, "picked_favourite_share": null, "by_market": [], "return_over_time": [], "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out." }, "pagination": { "per_page": 20, "total": 15, "pages": 1, "page_urls": [ "/authors/shane-o-brien/" ], "groups": { "settled": 3, "pending": 0, "excluded": 12 }, "continuation": "by_time", "page": 1, "first": 1, "last": 15, "author_url": "/authors/shane-o-brien/", "current": false }, "title_tag": "Shane O'Brien Predictions: Verified Record, Results and Sources", "calculator": null, "person": { "person_id": "o-0e5842b5732fde35b8ac30e3", "type_code": "individual", "name_shown": "Shane O'Brien", "main_entity": "e-0e5842b5732fde35b8ac30e3", "identity": { "status": "not_verified", "is_verified": false, "when": null, "source_list": [] }, "platform_list": [ { "entity_ref": "e-0e5842b5732fde35b8ac30e3", "medium": "Paddy Power News", "channel": "section pages", "domain": "news.paddypower.com", "source_info": "paddy-power", "byline": "Shane O'Brien", "url": "/sources/paddy-power/", "summary": { "statements": 33, "predictions": 15, "settled_picks": 2, "headline_kind": "historical_simulation", "return_percent": 31.5, "headline_part": "archived", "period_from": "2026-09-30", "period_to": "2026-09-30" } } ], "previously": [], "trust_tier": "probation" }, "data_revision": { "data_version": "2026-10-09.2", "updated": "2026-10-09", "current_release": "2026-11-07.2", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "price_rule": "reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "sample": { "settled_picks": 2, "matches": 2, "void": 0, "period_from": "2025-01-19", "period_to": "2025-01-19", "composition_hash": "8c8ce2196bf14e708fe3bc40ac4339fe4c06bab1083057dacff3a9071771d9b7" }, "changes_url": "#changes", "corrections_url": "/corrections/" }, "number_changes": [ { "id": "zc-d7e91e69cab36d07f852", "at": "2026-10-09T12:49:36.723Z", "data_version": "2026-10-09.2", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-09.1", "url": "/authors/shane-o-brien/", "category": "method_changed", "category_words": "Method changed", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-09.1", "return_percent": "51.33", "settled_picks": 3, "matches": 3, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "price_rule": "second data provider's closing price, restored", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "8478f1fba644ee6ce509d840d90da13d1f4c49465b9203f729bfb40bb9ff89da", "text": "+154.00 points on 3 settled picks across 3 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · method retro-1.1" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-09.2", "return_percent": "31.50", "settled_picks": 2, "matches": 2, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "8c8ce2196bf14e708fe3bc40ac4339fe4c06bab1083057dacff3a9071771d9b7", "text": "+63.00 points on 2 settled picks across 2 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "The headline rule changed on 9 October 2026: the headline is the live record at our recorded market price; without one, a historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only. Picks first found after the match no longer enter the headline number. Was: second data provider's closing price, restored (3 settled picks). Now: historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (2 settled picks).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 0, "removed": 1, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": "i-1adaf9f326d05c01b9a1" }, { "id": "zc-f9c03389ba3564ee3f59", "at": "2026-10-09T11:08:54.367Z", "data_version": "2026-10-09.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-09-30.1", "url": "/authors/shane-o-brien/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": null, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-09.1", "return_percent": "51.33", "settled_picks": 3, "matches": 3, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "price_rule": "second data provider's closing price, restored", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "8478f1fba644ee6ce509d840d90da13d1f4c49465b9203f729bfb40bb9ff89da", "text": "+154.00 points on 3 settled picks across 3 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "First headline number for this record: 3 settled picks in the series “second data provider's closing price, restored”.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 3, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null } ], "counts_by_slice": { "portions": [ { "code": "archived", "title": "Archived before kick-off", "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "settled_picks": 2, "total_check": true, "market_list": [ { "code_name": "both_teams_score", "in_words": "Both teams to score", "url": null, "settled_picks": 1, "won": 1, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": 6100, "return_percent": "61.0", "period_from": "2025-01-19", "period_to": "2025-01-19", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "1.61", "odds_from_author": 0, "odds_from_snapshot": 1 }, { "code_name": "corners_total", "in_words": "Corners over/under", "url": null, "settled_picks": 1, "won": 1, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": 200, 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{ "min_settled": 100, "min_days": 90 } }, "show": true }, "colleagues": [ { "source_code": "paddy-power", "source_name": "Paddy Power News", "source_url": "/sources/paddy-power/", "label": "Also at Paddy Power News", "authors_total": 12, "authors": [ { "name": "Joe Cole", "url": "/authors/joe-cole/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 15, "return_percent": "39.8", "small_sample": false, "average_odds": "3.27", "odds_from_author": 0, "odds_from_snapshot": 15 }, { "name": "Feargal Brennan", "url": "/authors/feargal-brennan/", "headline_part": "live", "settled_picks": 6, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "1.75", "odds_from_author": 0, "odds_from_snapshot": 6 }, { "name": "Matthew O'Regan", "url": "/authors/matthew-o-regan/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 5, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "3.46", "odds_from_author": 0, "odds_from_snapshot": 5 }, { "name": "Andrew Beasley", "url": 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"return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "James O'Rourke", "url": "/authors/james-o-rourke/", "headline_part": null, "settled_picks": 0, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Oli Nixon", "url": "/authors/oli-nixon/", "headline_part": null, "settled_picks": 0, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Paddy Murphy", "url": "/authors/paddy-murphy/", "headline_part": null, "settled_picks": 0, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Peter Crouch", "url": "/authors/peter-crouch/", "headline_part": null, "settled_picks": 0, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null } ] } ], "author_type": "Pundit", "data_changes": { "added_later": "2 records added on 30 Sep 2026 from archived copies; 8 records added on 30 Sep 2026 found after the match. The current numbers include them; numbers published earlier, including the record before each match, do not change.", "records_corrected": 1, "last_correction_at": "2026-10-14T02:00:57.143Z", "corrections_url": "/corrections/", "text": "1 record shown here has been corrected; the last correction was on 14 October 2026, with its reason in the corrections log." }, "entity_id": "person:o-0e5842b5732fde35b8ac30e3", "source_revision": 207, "related": [ { "url": "/cards/e-0e5842b5732fde35b8ac30e3-bank/", "name": "Bankroll card — Shane O'Brien", "detail": null, "source_group": "cards" }, { "url": "/cards/e-0e5842b5732fde35b8ac30e3-said-vs-happened/", "name": "Said → happened — Shane O'Brien", "detail": null, "source_group": "cards" } ], "number_sets": [ { "set": "profile.settled", "entity": "e-0e5842b5732fde35b8ac30e3", "value": 3, "where": "coverage", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.predictions", "entity": "e-0e5842b5732fde35b8ac30e3", "value": 15, "where": "coverage", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.part.live", "entity": "e-0e5842b5732fde35b8ac30e3", "value": 0, "where": null, "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.part.archived", "entity": "e-0e5842b5732fde35b8ac30e3", "value": 2, "where": "origin-archived", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.part.found_after", "entity": "e-0e5842b5732fde35b8ac30e3", "value": 1, "where": "origin", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.checked.live", "entity": "e-0e5842b5732fde35b8ac30e3", "value": 0, "where": null, "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.checked.archived", "entity": "e-0e5842b5732fde35b8ac30e3", "value": 2, "where": "origin-archived", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.checked", "entity": "e-0e5842b5732fde35b8ac30e3", "value": 2, "where": "trust-level", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "label": true } ] }