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no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-f169d2d4aad0095dd017d6c4", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-f169d2d4aad0095dd017d6c4", "quote_text": "Думаю будет результативная игра, в которой ПСЖ будет ближе к победе.", "fragment_from": 491, "fragment_to": 559, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "telegram", "url": "https://t.me/Utinyye_istorii/1032", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Seltin Sweet 18", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "a9766b31f6277022a5ae2e74e77cf8823b80b5f562179e2098ebaea583839145", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-26T10:56:56.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-26T10:57:55.997Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "opinion", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-26T10:56:56.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-10-26T10:56:56.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-26T10:57:55.997Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null } ], "excluded_from_feed": { "ads": 0, "service": 3, "ruleset_version": "3" }, "standing": null, "retro": null, "late": null, "price_vs_market": { "contract_version": "1", "threshold_percent": "5", "rows": [ { "basis": "snapshot", "basis_words": "our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off)", "basis_short": "Our market price when we first recorded the pick", "compared": 1, "above": 0, "above_share_percent": "0.0", "below": 1, "within": 0, "median_difference_percent": "-15.6", "not_comparable": 0, "disputed": 0, "status": "calculated" } ], "examples": [ { "url": "/authors/seltin-sweet-18/picks/3/#pick-n-84e881378aff9dd6ffdcb71c", "basis": "snapshot", "stated": "1.56", "market": "1.85", "difference_percent": "-15.6" } ], "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way." }, "record_summary": { "contract_version": "1", "entity_type": "person", "entity_words": "Individual author", "source": { "name": "t.me", "url": "https://t.me/Utinyye_istorii/1107" }, "observed_from": "2026-10-25", "observed_to": "2026-11-07", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "state": "settled", "series_code": "market_price", "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price", "restored": false, "headline_kind": "live_snapshot", "headline_part": "live", "settled_picks": 1, "matches": 1, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": 8475, "staked_hundredths": 10000, "return_percent": "84.75", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "period_from": "2026-11-02", "period_to": "2026-11-02", "status": "calculated", "method_version": "2.2", "short_history": true, "reason": null, "reasons": [], "sentence": "Forecast Record recorded 1 settled live pick by Seltin Sweet 18 before kick-off across 1 match on 2 November 2026. Won 1 of 1 settled live pick at our recorded market prices. Of the 37 predictions we hold for Seltin Sweet 18, 2 are linked to matches: 1 was recorded by us before kick-off and 1 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "numbers": [ { "label": "Settled live picks", "value": "1", "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick", "note": null }, { "label": "Matches", "value": "1", "anchor": "/methodology/#match", "note": null }, { "label": "Net result", "value": "+84.75 points", "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement", "note": "100 points per pick" }, { "label": "Return at our recorded market price", "value": "+84.8%", "anchor": "/methodology/#roi", "note": null } ], "limitations": [], "other_series": [], "return_over_time": [], "return_over_time_parts": { "live": { "part": "live", "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "x_axis": "match_date", "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.", "settled_picks": 1, "matches": 1, "match_dates": 1, "period_from": "2026-11-02", "period_to": "2026-11-02", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "final_points_hundredths": 8475, "low": { "date": "2026-11-02", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 8475, "after_picks": 1 }, "high": { "date": "2026-11-02", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 8475, "after_picks": 1 }, "line_drawn": false, "steps": [ { "date": "2026-11-02", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 8475, "n": 1, "picks": 1 } ] }, "archived": null }, "author_response": null, "cite": { "text": "Forecast Record recorded 1 settled live pick by Seltin Sweet 18 before kick-off across 1 match on 2 November 2026. Won 1 of 1 settled live pick at our recorded market prices. Of the 37 predictions we hold for Seltin Sweet 18, 2 are linked to matches: 1 was recorded by us before kick-off and 1 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/seltin-sweet-18/", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "2.2" }, "origin": { "contract_version": "1", "predictions": 37, "under_review": 0, "no_match_linked": 35, "proven_predictions": 1, "proven_checked": 1, "proven_measured": 1, "proven_dates": 1, "parts": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.", "predictions": 1, "checked": 1, "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "series_code": "market_price", "main": { "settled_picks": 1, "void": 0, "matches": 1, "net_points_hundredths": 8475, "staked_hundredths": 10000, "return_percent": "84.75", "interval_low": null, "interval_high": null, "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval", "period_from": "2026-11-02", "period_to": "2026-11-02", "method_version": "2.2", "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0", "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.0", "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 1 }, "same_picks": [ { "price": "Author-quoted price", "series_code": "author_price", "picks": 1, "return_main_percent": "84.75", "return_other_percent": "55.90", "settled_excluding_void": 1, "net_main_points_hundredths": 8475, "net_other_points_hundredths": 5590, "period_from": "2026-11-02", "period_to": "2026-11-02" }, { "price": "Closing price", "series_code": "closing_live", "picks": 1, "return_main_percent": "84.75", "return_other_percent": "57.80", "settled_excluding_void": 1, "net_main_points_hundredths": 8475, "net_other_points_hundredths": 5780, "period_from": "2026-11-02", "period_to": "2026-11-02" } ], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 1, "priced": 1 }, "accuracy": { "picks": 1, "won": 1, "won_percent": "100.0", "implied_percent": "54.1", "left_out": 0, "by_market": [ { "market": "Over/under goals", "won": 1, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "54.1" } ] } }, { "code": "archived", "title": "Archived before kick-off", "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.", "predictions": 0, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null }, { "code": "found_after", "title": "Found after the match", "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.", "predictions": 1, "checked": 1, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 1, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null } ] }, "live_alongside": null, "headline_record_ids": [ "n-84e881378aff9dd6ffdcb71c" ], "interval_low": null, "interval_high": null, "caption": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price · 100 points per pick · 2 November 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under method v2.2", "record_from": "2026-10-25", "record_to": "2026-11-07" }, "recorded_picks": [ { "record_id": "n-84e881378aff9dd6ffdcb71c", "url": "/authors/seltin-sweet-18/picks/3/#pick-n-84e881378aff9dd6ffdcb71c", "match": "Atalanta v Parma", "match_url": "/football/matches/atalanta-vs-parma-2026-11-02/", "kickoff": "2026-11-02T19:45:00.000Z", "competition": "Serie A", "lead_hours": 5.8, "market_code": "total", "author_said": "Over/Under 2.5 goals: over 2.5 at 1.56", "quote": null, "group": "settled", "outcome": "Won", "claim_outcome": "Won", "final_score": "0-3", "reason": null, "reason_code": null, "points_hundredths": 8475, "series_code": "market_price", "series_short": "odds snapshot", "author_price": "1.559", "settled_price": "1.8475", "published_at": "2026-11-02T13:44:30.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-11-02T13:57:13.929Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": true, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-84e881378aff9dd6ffdcb71c", "quote_text": "🟡Исход: Тотал больше 2,5✅\n\n📉Вeрoятнocть прoxoда 78%\n\nкоэффициент: 1,559", "fragment_from": 18, "fragment_to": 89, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "telegram", "url": "https://t.me/Utinyye_istorii/1075", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Seltin Sweet 18", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "88b11032f44c0fbddb1ccc6674429cf07f73979bbfd32b1525d7090e803c15d5", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-11-02T13:44:30.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-02T13:57:13.929Z", "executed_at": "2026-11-07T09:40:07.022Z", "statement_class": "priced", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": "s-52705251c6b2", "display_name": "Atalanta — Parma", "competition_name": "Serie A", "starts_at": "2026-11-02T19:45:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/atalanta-vs-parma-2026-11-02/", "scoreline": "0-3", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals", "outcome_label": "over 2.5", "odds_set": { "by_author": "1.559", "our_snapshot": "1.8475", "our_snapshot_at": "2026-11-02T13:55:23.547Z", "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot", "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "win", "simulation_change_hundredths": 8475, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": "ours", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-11-02T13:44:30.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-11-02T13:44:30.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-02T13:57:13.929Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals", "choice": "over 2.5", "author_odds": "1.559", "market_key": "total", "choice_key": "over", "period": "match", "line": "2.5", "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Over/Under 2.5 goals: over 2.5 at 1.56" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "win", "scoreline": "0-3", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Won: the final score was Atalanta 0-3 Parma." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "33c2bca863d611fa8c847c0958353465b9ee9ccbfb61a7eaa63738991d05719d", "series_key": "author_price", "series_label": "At the author's stated price", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals", "choice": "over 2.5", "decimal_odds": "1.559", "odds_role": "author_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "win", "result_words": "Won", "change_hundredths": 5590, "executed_at": "2026-11-07T09:40:06.940Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false }, { "operation_id": "110911548e71a37b1182a81c0e0b941fd52a0531d7abf498ddc0f58ec6c9b1d2", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals", "choice": "over 2.5", "decimal_odds": "1.8475", "odds_role": "market_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "win", "result_words": "Won", "change_hundredths": 8475, "executed_at": "2026-11-07T09:40:07.022Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "settled_pick", "authorship": { "material_author": null, "publisher": "t.me", "forecaster": null, 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