{
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 "language": "en",
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 "translations": [],
 "heading": "Samet Yalica: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "172 settled picks by Samet Yalica archived before kick-off across 172 matches, 15 Feb 2025 – 10 Jan 2026: −10.2% reconstructed at archived prices.",
 "first_paragraph": {
  "body": "Forecast Record restored 172 settled archived picks by Samet Yalica from copies archived before kick-off, across 172 matches between 15 February 2025 and 10 January 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned −10.2% on the total staked. Of the 764 predictions we hold for Samet Yalica, 174 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 590 from the source’s own history. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "key_number": "−10.2%",
  "data": "2026-11-07",
  "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot",
  "brand": "Forecast Record"
 },
 "indexable": true,
 "noindex_reason": null,
 "indexing_threshold": {
  "settled_count": 172,
  "date_count": 41,
  "required_settled": 10,
  "required_dates": 2,
  "live_count": 0,
  "restored_count": 760,
  "of_them_archived": 173
 },
 "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
 "built_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
 "lastmod": "2026-11-08T02:12:33.000Z",
 "content_hash": null,
 "meaning_hash": "588868743c73472ed8f9437e10663c2e673a54357f096ce56612bc70f2ac3523",
 "dependency_group": "author:e-8e1109198b94a94ec05d98e0",
 "release_id": "20261107-195223",
 "markup": [
  {
   "type_code": "WebPage",
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   "cause": null
  },
  {
   "type_code": "Organization",
   "allowed": true,
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  },
  {
   "type_code": "Person",
   "allowed": true,
   "cause": null
  }
 ],
 "exports": [
  {
   "type_code": "json",
   "url": "/authors/samet-yalica/index.json",
   "bytes": null
  },
  {
   "type_code": "csv",
   "url": "/authors/samet-yalica/picks.csv",
   "bytes": null
  }
 ],
 "modules": {
  "affiliate": true,
  "api": true,
  "compare_yourself": false
 },
 "affiliate_block": {
  "container": true,
  "request_url": "/partnery/moi",
  "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.",
  "page_category": "author"
 },
 "restrictions": {
  "name_withdrawn": false,
  "tracker_number": null,
  "withdrawn_quotes": [],
  "removed_at": null,
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  "suspended_records": [],
  "withdrawal_log_number": 0
 },
 "page_links": {
  "methodology": "/methodology/",
  "right_of_reply": "/right-of-reply/",
  "source_coverage": "/coverage/",
  "corrections_log": "/corrections/",
  "api": "/api/",
  "claim": "/claim/"
 },
 "entity": {
  "id": "e-8e1109198b94a94ec05d98e0",
  "public_name": "Samet Yalica",
  "tracker_number": 3954,
  "status": "active",
  "inactive_since": null,
  "verified_creator": false,
  "observation_period": {
   "since": "2026-10-11",
   "until": "2026-10-12"
  },
  "platform_list": [
   {
    "medium": "website",
    "handle": null,
    "url": null,
    "link_confirmed": false,
    "show": true
   }
  ],
  "comment": null
 },
 "headline_number": {
  "metric": {
   "metric_id": "p-e-8e1109198b94a94ec05d98e0-roi-market-price-90d-z99",
   "code_name": "roi_market_price",
   "display_name": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot",
   "window_kind": "90d",
   "window_from": "2026-08-09",
   "window_to": "2026-11-07",
   "amount": null,
   "unit": "percent",
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "no pick in this window has been settled",
   "n_bets": 0,
   "n_events": 0,
   "n_void": null,
   "ci_low": null,
   "ci_high": null,
   "ci_method": "not_estimated",
   "price_source": "market_price",
   "coverage_percent": null,
   "breakdown": [],
   "methodology_version": "2.2",
   "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
   "enough_for_ranking": false,
   "series_key": "market_price",
   "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot"
  },
  "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 0 settled picks across 0 matches",
  "average_odds": null,
  "odds_from_author": null,
  "odds_from_snapshot": null
 },
 "metrics": [],
 "history": [],
 "simulation": {
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  "series_label": "No level stake placed",
  "bankroll_hundredths": 1000000,
  "reserve_hundredths": 0,
  "issued_total_hundredths": 1000000,
  "initial_hundredths": 1000000,
  "stake_hundredths": 10000,
  "top_up_count": 0,
  "profit_hundredths": 0,
  "rewards_off": null,
  "data_points": [],
  "top_ups": [],
  "rule": "Every tracked author starts with 10,000 points and stakes 100 per qualifying pick. This author has 0 settled bets, so the bankroll stands at its starting value."
 },
 "simulations": [],
 "completeness": {
  "detected": 764,
  "recognised": 764,
  "accepted": 764,
  "executed": 764,
  "calculated": 760,
  "gaps": []
 },
 "record_counts": {
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  "statements": 764,
  "of_them_restored": 764,
  "not_predictions": {
   "opinions": 0,
   "not_about_a_match": 0,
   "unclassified": 0
  },
  "predictions": 764,
  "predictions_restored": 764,
  "matches": 0,
  "admitted": 764,
  "qualifying_picks": 764,
  "qualifying_picks_restored": 764,
  "settled_picks": 760,
  "settled_picks_restored": 760,
  "series_list": [
   {
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    "settled_picks": 760,
    "void": 0,
    "pending_picks": 4,
    "matches": 760,
    "operations_settled": 760,
    "stakes_hundredths": [
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    ],
    "methodologies": [
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    ],
    "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price"
   },
   {
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    "qualifying_picks": 762,
    "settled_picks": 758,
    "void": 0,
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    "matches": 758,
    "operations_settled": 758,
    "stakes_hundredths": [
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    "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   }
  ],
  "gaps": [],
  "duplicates": 0,
  "junk": {},
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 },
 "evidence_items": [
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   "observation_id": "n-d44a9f873b35b6af552efe19",
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   "quote_text": "MS 1, Oran 1.58",
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.futboltr.com/freiburg-hamburg-iddaa-tahmini-10-01-2026/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Samet Yalica",
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   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-12T22:43:29.573Z",
   "executed_at": "2026-10-13T20:01:01.128Z",
   "statement_class": "priced",
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   "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
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    "display_name": "SC Freiburg v Hamburger SV",
    "competition_name": "Bundesliga",
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    "url": null,
    "scoreline": "2-1"
   },
   "market_label": "1X2, match result",
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    "closing": "1.7900",
    "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   },
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   "result": "win",
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   "archive_snapshot_at": "2026-01-10T04:27:16.000Z",
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   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": "Added to our record on 12 Oct 2026",
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   "author_claim": {
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    "choice": "SC Freiburg",
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    "period": "match",
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    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "1X2, match result: SC Freiburg at 1.58"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "scoreline": "2-1",
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    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "in_words": "Won: the final score was SC Freiburg 2-1 Hamburger SV."
   },
   "settlements": [
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     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "SC Freiburg",
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     "status": "confirmed",
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     "change_hundredths": 5800,
     "executed_at": "2026-10-13T20:01:01.127Z",
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    {
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     "site_simulation": true,
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     "choice": "SC Freiburg",
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     "status": "confirmed",
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     "change_hundredths": 7900,
     "executed_at": "2026-10-13T20:01:01.128Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
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   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
   "authorship": {
    "material_author": "Samet Yalica",
    "publisher": "FutbolTR",
    "forecaster": "Samet Yalica",
    "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
    "basis": null,
    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
    "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://www.futboltr.com/freiburg-hamburg-iddaa-tahmini-10-01-2026/",
    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
    "verdict_by": null,
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   },
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-5f2af425df00ef5503e56af7",
   "url": "/authors/samet-yalica/picks/40/#pick-n-5f2af425df00ef5503e56af7",
   "quote_text": "KGVAR, Oran 1.45",
   "fragment_from": 2718,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.futboltr.com/heidenheim-koln-bahis-tahmini-10-01-2026/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Samet Yalica",
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    "bundle_id": "f3c5e703dca9eef048b85a0fe030f8e7dd1c9c7475c3e5dc9895a0b5ccf6cbe6",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-12T22:43:24.261Z",
   "executed_at": "2026-10-13T20:01:01.097Z",
   "statement_class": "priced",
   "status": "too_late",
   "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": {
    "event_id": null,
    "display_name": "1. FC Heidenheim v 1. FC Köln",
    "competition_name": "Bundesliga",
    "starts_at": "2026-01-10T14:30:00.000Z",
    "url": null,
    "scoreline": "2-2"
   },
   "market_label": "Both teams to score",
   "outcome_label": "yes",
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": "1.45",
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    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": "1.6000",
    "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "win",
   "simulation_change_hundredths": 6000,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": "ours",
   "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "archive_snapshot_at": "2026-01-10T07:35:54.000Z",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
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    "detected_at": "2026-10-12T22:43:24.261Z",
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    "flags": [
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    ],
    "flag_words": "The source states no publication date.",
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   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": "Added to our record on 12 Oct 2026",
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "Both teams to score",
    "choice": "yes",
    "author_odds": "1.45",
    "market_key": "both_teams_score",
    "choice_key": "yes",
    "period": "match",
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    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "Both teams to score: yes at 1.45"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": "win",
    "scoreline": "2-2",
    "data_status": "measured",
    "cause": null,
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "in_words": "Won: the final score was 1. FC Heidenheim 2-2 1. FC Köln."
   },
   "settlements": [
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     "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Both teams to score",
     "choice": "yes",
     "decimal_odds": "1.45",
     "odds_role": "author_price",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "win",
     "result_words": "Won",
     "change_hundredths": 4500,
     "executed_at": "2026-10-13T20:01:01.097Z",
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     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Both teams to score",
     "choice": "yes",
     "decimal_odds": "1.6000",
     "odds_role": "closing_odds",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "win",
     "result_words": "Won",
     "change_hundredths": 6000,
     "executed_at": "2026-10-13T20:01:01.097Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
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   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
   "authorship": {
    "material_author": "Samet Yalica",
    "publisher": "FutbolTR",
    "forecaster": "Samet Yalica",
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    "basis": null,
    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
    "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://www.futboltr.com/heidenheim-koln-bahis-tahmini-10-01-2026/",
    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
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   },
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-c5d4f89d5f4a9bd967578572",
   "url": "/authors/samet-yalica/picks/40/#pick-n-c5d4f89d5f4a9bd967578572",
   "quote_text": "MS 1, Oran 1.89",
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.futboltr.com/union-berlin-mainz-05-bahis-tahmini-10-01-2026/",
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    "speaker": "Samet Yalica",
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   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-12T22:43:20.064Z",
   "executed_at": "2026-10-13T20:01:01.062Z",
   "statement_class": "priced",
   "status": "too_late",
   "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": {
    "event_id": null,
    "display_name": "1. FC Union Berlin v 1. FSV Mainz 05",
    "competition_name": "Bundesliga",
    "starts_at": "2026-01-10T14:30:00.000Z",
    "url": null,
    "scoreline": "2-2"
   },
   "market_label": "1X2, match result",
   "outcome_label": "1. FC Union Berlin",
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": "1.89",
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    "closing": "2.1050",
    "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "loss",
   "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": "ours",
   "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "archive_snapshot_at": "2026-01-10T04:27:33.000Z",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
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    "detected_at": "2026-10-12T22:43:20.064Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": "2026-01-10T04:27:33.000Z",
    "flags": [
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    ],
    "flag_words": "The source states no publication date.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": "Added to our record on 12 Oct 2026",
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "1X2, match result",
    "choice": "1. FC Union Berlin",
    "author_odds": "1.89",
    "market_key": "1x2",
    "choice_key": "1",
    "period": "match",
    "line": null,
    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "1X2, match result: 1. FC Union Berlin at 1.89"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": "loss",
    "scoreline": "2-2",
    "data_status": "measured",
    "cause": null,
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "in_words": "Lost: the final score was 1. FC Union Berlin 2-2 1. FSV Mainz 05."
   },
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   "quote_text": "MS 1, Oran 2.67",
   "fragment_from": 2852,
   "fragment_to": 2867,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.futboltr.com/hellas-verona-genoa-bahis-tahmini-13-04-2025/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Samet Yalica",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "8fc7a9f5049270479c47bebbda0271d3e722732022c49b4cfa4b98855cd2b117",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-12T22:10:01.516Z",
   "executed_at": "2026-10-13T19:51:54.508Z",
   "statement_class": "priced",
   "status": "too_late",
   "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": {
    "event_id": null,
    "display_name": "Hellas Verona v Genoa",
    "competition_name": "Serie A",
    "starts_at": "2025-04-13T13:00:00.000Z",
    "url": null,
    "scoreline": "0-0"
   },
   "market_label": "1X2, match result",
   "outcome_label": "Hellas Verona",
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": "2.67",
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": "2.9500",
    "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "loss",
   "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": "ours",
   "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "archive_snapshot_at": "2025-04-13T09:40:45.000Z",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": null,
    "detected_at": "2026-10-12T22:10:01.516Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": "2025-04-13T09:40:45.000Z",
    "flags": [
     "no_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source states no publication date.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": "Added to our record on 12 Oct 2026",
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "1X2, match result",
    "choice": "Hellas Verona",
    "author_odds": "2.67",
    "market_key": "1x2",
    "choice_key": "1",
    "period": "match",
    "line": null,
    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "1X2, match result: Hellas Verona at 2.67"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": "loss",
    "scoreline": "0-0",
    "data_status": "measured",
    "cause": null,
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Hellas Verona 0-0 Genoa."
   },
   "settlements": [
    {
     "operation_id": "b54e0e750e7312a8b415fa9554792575b26cef7dec6c5cb91d190e1a2cb13706",
     "series_key": "retro_author_price",
     "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "Hellas Verona",
     "decimal_odds": "2.67",
     "odds_role": "author_price",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "loss",
     "result_words": "Lost",
     "change_hundredths": -10000,
     "executed_at": "2026-10-13T19:51:54.508Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    },
    {
     "operation_id": "2c5e10354f40beeea148fb24d4c7b49dbc05da743c4243b06fbc803d94dde1c4",
     "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "Hellas Verona",
     "decimal_odds": "2.9500",
     "odds_role": "closing_odds",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "loss",
     "result_words": "Lost",
     "change_hundredths": -10000,
     "executed_at": "2026-10-13T19:51:54.508Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    }
   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
   "authorship": {
    "material_author": "Samet Yalica",
    "publisher": "FutbolTR",
    "forecaster": "Samet Yalica",
    "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
    "basis": null,
    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
    "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://www.futboltr.com/hellas-verona-genoa-bahis-tahmini-13-04-2025/",
    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
    "verdict_by": null,
    "verdict_line": null
   },
   "correction": null
  }
 ],
 "standing": null,
 "retro": {
  "restored_total": 760,
  "of_them_archived_pre_match": 173,
  "found_post_match": 0,
  "of_them_source_reported": 587,
  "live_count": 0,
  "date_count": 153,
  "span_from": "2025-02-03",
  "span_to": "2026-01-12",
  "line_text": "restored history: 760, of which pre-match archive 173",
  "body": "We re-read what this author published before Premier League, Champions League, Europa League, Conference League, Bundesliga, LaLiga, Ligue 1, Ligue 1 Play-offs, Ligue 2, Serie A, Serie B, Eredivisie and Süper Lig matches between 3 February 2025 and 12 January 2026 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 760. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 173. Taken from the source’s own published history, published before kick-off by the source’s own date: 587. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 0. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.",
  "precision": {
   "n": 760,
   "share": "0.4934"
  },
  "series_list": [
   {
    "code_name": "retro_author_price",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
    "n": 757,
    "roi": "-17.7952",
    "ci_low": "-23.7543",
    "ci_high": "-11.8626",
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price",
    "n": 0,
    "roi": null,
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": "no restored pick with this price"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "n": 758,
    "roi": "-8.1385",
    "ci_low": "-14.7421",
    "ci_high": "-1.1708",
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   }
  ],
  "clv": {
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above"
  },
  "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
  "leagues": [
   "Premier League",
   "Champions League",
   "Europa League",
   "Conference League",
   "Bundesliga",
   "LaLiga",
   "Ligue 1",
   "Ligue 1 Play-offs",
   "Ligue 2",
   "Serie A",
   "Serie B",
   "Eredivisie",
   "Süper Lig"
  ],
  "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 0 settled restored picks and forecasts, and the two agree; 760 come from one provider only. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged."
 },
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": null,
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "futboltr.com",
   "url": "https://www.futboltr.com/freiburg-hamburg-iddaa-tahmini-10-01-2026/"
  },
  "observed_from": "2026-10-11",
  "observed_to": "2026-10-12",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
  "series": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
  "restored": true,
  "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
  "headline_part": "archived",
  "settled_picks": 172,
  "matches": 172,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": -175950,
  "staked_hundredths": 1720000,
  "return_percent": "-10.23",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2025-02-15",
  "period_to": "2026-01-10",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "retro-1.1",
  "short_history": false,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record restored 172 settled archived picks by Samet Yalica from copies archived before kick-off, across 172 matches between 15 February 2025 and 10 January 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned −10.2% on the total staked. Of the 764 predictions we hold for Samet Yalica, 174 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 590 from the source’s own history. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled archived picks",
    "value": "172",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "172",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "−1,759.50 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "value": "−10.2%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": "95% interval −24.1% to +3.7%"
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [
   "Most of this history comes from the source’s own published record: 590 predictions dated by the source. 586 of them are settled in a historical price series; titles and rankings use the live record.",
   "Reconstructed at archived prices: these picks were restored from copies of the author’s pages that an independent web archive saved before kick-off, at the last pre-match archive prices, bookmaker margin included."
  ],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [
   {
    "date": "2025-02-15",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 28850,
    "n": 4
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-02-16",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 26250,
    "n": 16
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-02-17",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 16250,
    "n": 17
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-02-21",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 16250,
    "n": 19
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-02-22",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 14050,
    "n": 21
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-02-24",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 4050,
    "n": 22
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-02-28",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 13050,
    "n": 23
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-03-01",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 25650,
    "n": 28
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-03-02",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 22950,
    "n": 32
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-03-08",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 12950,
    "n": 33
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-03-10",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 2950,
    "n": 34
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-03-14",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -27050,
    "n": 37
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-03-15",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -54750,
    "n": 48
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-03-16",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -45850,
    "n": 57
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-03-29",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -32200,
    "n": 67
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-03-30",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -8650,
    "n": 72
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-03-31",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -28650,
    "n": 74
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-04-04",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -30850,
    "n": 76
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-04-05",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -34650,
    "n": 78
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-04-06",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -88050,
    "n": 87
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-04-07",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -98050,
    "n": 88
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-04-10",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -118050,
    "n": 90
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-04-12",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -128050,
    "n": 91
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-04-13",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -157250,
    "n": 99
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-04-17",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -177250,
    "n": 101
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-04-18",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -169250,
    "n": 102
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-04-19",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -137800,
    "n": 109
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-04-20",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -128750,
    "n": 119
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-04-27",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -118450,
    "n": 120
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-05-17",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -149850,
    "n": 131
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-05-18",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -189050,
    "n": 137
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-08-16",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -199050,
    "n": 138
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-08-23",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -207800,
    "n": 142
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-08-24",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -251800,
    "n": 150
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-08-25",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -239900,
    "n": 151
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-08-28",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -215650,
    "n": 153
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-08-29",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -213450,
    "n": 156
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-08-30",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -209600,
    "n": 164
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-08-31",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -198750,
    "n": 166
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-10-28",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -192650,
    "n": 167
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-01-10",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -175950,
    "n": 172
   }
  ],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": null,
   "archived": {
    "part": "archived",
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. These picks were restored from copies an independent web archive saved before kick-off; the line shows how they settled at archived prices.",
    "settled_picks": 172,
    "matches": 172,
    "match_dates": 41,
    "period_from": "2025-02-15",
    "period_to": "2026-01-10",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": -175950,
    "low": {
     "date": "2025-08-24",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -251800,
     "after_picks": 150
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2025-02-15",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 28850,
     "after_picks": 4
    },
    "line_drawn": true,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2025-02-15",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 28850,
      "n": 4,
      "picks": 4
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-02-16",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 26250,
      "n": 16,
      "picks": 12
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-02-17",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 16250,
      "n": 17,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-02-21",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 16250,
      "n": 19,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-02-22",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 14050,
      "n": 21,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-02-24",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 4050,
      "n": 22,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-02-28",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 13050,
      "n": 23,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-03-01",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 25650,
      "n": 28,
      "picks": 5
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-03-02",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 22950,
      "n": 32,
      "picks": 4
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-03-08",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 12950,
      "n": 33,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-03-10",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 2950,
      "n": 34,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-03-14",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -27050,
      "n": 37,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-03-15",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -54750,
      "n": 48,
      "picks": 11
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-03-16",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -45850,
      "n": 57,
      "picks": 9
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-03-29",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -32200,
      "n": 67,
      "picks": 10
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-03-30",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -8650,
      "n": 72,
      "picks": 5
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-03-31",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -28650,
      "n": 74,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-04-04",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -30850,
      "n": 76,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-04-05",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -34650,
      "n": 78,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-04-06",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -88050,
      "n": 87,
      "picks": 9
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-04-07",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -98050,
      "n": 88,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-04-10",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -118050,
      "n": 90,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-04-12",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -128050,
      "n": 91,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-04-13",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -157250,
      "n": 99,
      "picks": 8
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-04-17",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -177250,
      "n": 101,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-04-18",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -169250,
      "n": 102,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-04-19",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -137800,
      "n": 109,
      "picks": 7
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-04-20",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -128750,
      "n": 119,
      "picks": 10
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-04-27",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -118450,
      "n": 120,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-05-17",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -149850,
      "n": 131,
      "picks": 11
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-05-18",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -189050,
      "n": 137,
      "picks": 6
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-08-16",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -199050,
      "n": 138,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-08-23",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -207800,
      "n": 142,
      "picks": 4
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-08-24",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -251800,
      "n": 150,
      "picks": 8
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-08-25",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -239900,
      "n": 151,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-08-28",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -215650,
      "n": 153,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-08-29",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -213450,
      "n": 156,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-08-30",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -209600,
      "n": 164,
      "picks": 8
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-08-31",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -198750,
      "n": 166,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-10-28",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -192650,
      "n": 167,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-01-10",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -175950,
      "n": 172,
      "picks": 5
     }
    ]
   }
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record restored 172 settled archived picks by Samet Yalica from copies archived before kick-off, across 172 matches between 15 February 2025 and 10 January 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned −10.2% on the total staked. Of the 764 predictions we hold for Samet Yalica, 174 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 590 from the source’s own history. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/samet-yalica/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "retro-1.1"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 764,
   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 0,
   "proven_predictions": 174,
   "proven_checked": 173,
   "proven_measured": 172,
   "proven_dates": 41,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 174,
     "checked": 173,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 172,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 172,
      "net_points_hundredths": -175950,
      "staked_hundredths": 1720000,
      "return_percent": "-10.23",
      "interval_low": "-24.11",
      "interval_high": "3.73",
      "interval_note": null,
      "period_from": "2025-02-15",
      "period_to": "2026-01-10",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 172,
       "return_main_percent": "-10.23",
       "return_other_percent": "-20.25",
       "settled_excluding_void": 172,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -175950,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -348300,
       "period_from": "2025-02-15",
       "period_to": "2026-01-10"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
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      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
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      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
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     },
     "accuracy": {
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      "won_percent": "49.4",
      "implied_percent": "54.7",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
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        "picks": 100,
        "implied_percent": "53.5"
       },
       {
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        "picks": 59,
        "implied_percent": "57.4"
       },
       {
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        "implied_percent": "51.3"
       },
       {
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        "won": 2,
        "picks": 3,
        "implied_percent": "53.2"
       }
      ]
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
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      "outcome_checked": 0,
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      "baseline_matches": 0,
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     },
     "eligible": {
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     },
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    },
    {
     "code": "source_reported",
     "title": "Source-reported history",
     "explanation": "The time and the pick are known only from the source’s own history; it is the basis of the record check and never part of the evidenced total.",
     "predictions": 590,
     "checked": 587,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
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      "return_percent": "-7.52",
      "interval_low": "-15.18",
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      "period_from": "2025-02-03",
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     },
     "same_picks": [
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       "settled_excluding_void": 583,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -410950,
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     ],
     "score": {
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       },
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        "implied_percent": "53.9"
       },
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  "interval_low": "-24.11",
  "interval_high": "3.73",
  "caption": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) · 100 points per pick · 15 February 2025 – 10 January 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under reconstruction method 1.1",
  "record_from": "2025-02-03",
  "record_to": "2026-01-12"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
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   "match_url": null,
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   "author_said": "Both teams to score: yes at 1.95",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
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   "final_score": "3-0",
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   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
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   "published_at": "2026-01-10T13:46:00.000Z",
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   "record_part_words": "Source-reported history",
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   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2026-01-11T19:45:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Serie A",
   "lead_hours": -6576.4,
   "market_code": "both_teams_score",
   "author_said": "Both teams to score: yes at 1.78",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
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   "claim_outcome": "Won",
   "final_score": "2-2",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": 10900,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
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   "origin": "Source-reported history",
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   "record_part_words": "Source-reported history",
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   "price_disputed": null,
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   "origin": "Source-reported history",
   "record_part": "source_reported",
   "record_part_words": "Source-reported history",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-b8fb2ee7039e10cbcc752121",
   "url": null,
   "match": "Paris Saint-Germain v Monaco",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-02-07T20:05:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Ligue 1",
   "lead_hours": -14688.3,
   "market_code": "total",
   "author_said": "Over/Under 3.5 goals: over 3.5 at 1.7",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Won",
   "claim_outcome": "Won",
   "final_score": "4-1",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": 7300,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": "1.7",
   "settled_price": "1.7300",
   "published_at": "2025-02-05T13:06:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T20:25:50.968Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
   "record_part": "source_reported",
   "record_part_words": "Source-reported history",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-e43e7705f88b1ab53762f425",
   "url": null,
   "match": "Como v Juventus",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-02-07T19:45:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Serie A",
   "lead_hours": -14688.7,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: Juventus at 1.82",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Won",
   "claim_outcome": "Won",
   "final_score": "1-2",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": 11500,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": "1.82",
   "settled_price": "2.1500",
   "published_at": "2025-02-05T13:02:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T20:25:51.020Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
   "record_part": "source_reported",
   "record_part_words": "Source-reported history",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-445236671e0591f7909694e2",
   "url": null,
   "match": "FC Bayern München v SV Werder Bremen",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-02-07T19:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Bundesliga",
   "lead_hours": -14688.9,
   "market_code": "total",
   "author_said": "Over/Under 3.5 goals: over 3.5 at 1.41",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "3-0",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": "1.41",
   "settled_price": "1.5500",
   "published_at": "2025-02-05T13:00:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T20:25:51.048Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
   "record_part": "source_reported",
   "record_part_words": "Source-reported history",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-1811818c005c5f040dd700c9",
   "url": null,
   "match": "Nantes v Stade Brestois",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-02-07T18:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Ligue 1",
   "lead_hours": -14690.4,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: Stade Brestois at 2.68",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Won",
   "claim_outcome": "Won",
   "final_score": "0-2",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": 20000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": "2.68",
   "settled_price": "3.0000",
   "published_at": "2025-02-05T13:04:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T20:25:51.006Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
   "record_part": "source_reported",
   "record_part_words": "Source-reported history",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-6c5c8c8afb44e40cceceff98",
   "url": null,
   "match": "Cagliari v Lazio",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-02-03T19:45:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Serie A",
   "lead_hours": -14784.7,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: Lazio at 1.77",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Won",
   "claim_outcome": "Won",
   "final_score": "1-2",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": 10000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": "1.77",
   "settled_price": "2.0000",
   "published_at": "2025-02-01T23:36:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T20:25:58.039Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
   "record_part": "source_reported",
   "record_part_words": "Source-reported history",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-57b7ebf6686000b4ceebdeac",
   "url": null,
   "match": "AC Milan v AS Roma",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-11-02T19:45:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Serie A",
   "lead_hours": -8256.5,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: draw at 2.77",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "reason_code": "disputed_reading",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-10-31T23:11:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T20:15:17.464Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
   "record_part": "source_reported",
   "record_part_words": "Source-reported history",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
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   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-843c2e194b38827ca3770323",
   "url": null,
   "match": "Lincoln City v Manchester United U21",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-09-30T18:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "EFL Trophy",
   "lead_hours": -9050.3,
   "market_code": "both_teams_score",
   "author_said": "Both teams to score: yes at 1.51",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "reason_code": "disputed_reading",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-09-29T21:32:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T20:16:56.954Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
   "record_part": "source_reported",
   "record_part_words": "Source-reported history",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-2b88835778db6d9d83bb13ef",
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   "match": "Como v Genoa",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-04-27T10:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Serie A",
   "lead_hours": -12801.9,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: draw at 2.97",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "reason_code": "disputed_reading",
   "points_hundredths": null,
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   "published_at": "2025-04-26T00:38:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T20:22:59.903Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
   "record_part": "source_reported",
   "record_part_words": "Source-reported history",
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   "attribution": null,
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   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-bbebb6b92123ec4ef3f10a47",
   "url": null,
   "match": "RB Leipzig v 1. FSV Mainz 05",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-03-01T14:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Bundesliga",
   "lead_hours": -14167.1,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: draw at 3.27",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "reason_code": "disputed_reading",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
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   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": null,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T21:38:00.934Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
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   "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
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 ],
 "lead_time": {
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  "threshold_hours": 2.0,
  "picks": 764,
  "before_kickoff": 0,
  "after_kickoff": 764,
  "at_least_2h": 0,
  "share_2h_plus": 0.0,
  "median_hours": null,
  "min_hours": null,
  "max_hours": null,
  "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off."
 },
 "baseline": {
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  "rule": "recorded-line-1.0",
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  "picks": 0,
  "settled_picks_all": 0,
  "excluded": {
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   "favourite_not_settled": 0
  },
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  "author_net_hundredths": 0,
  "favourite_net_hundredths": 0,
  "difference_hundredths": 0,
  "author_return_percent": null,
  "favourite_return_percent": null,
  "author_hit_rate": null,
  "favourite_hit_rate": null,
  "picked_favourite_share": null,
  "by_market": [],
  "return_over_time": [],
  "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out."
 },
 "pagination": {
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  "total": 764,
  "pages": 40,
  "page_urls": [
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   "/authors/samet-yalica/picks/9/",
   "/authors/samet-yalica/picks/10/",
   "/authors/samet-yalica/picks/11/",
   "/authors/samet-yalica/picks/12/",
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   "/authors/samet-yalica/picks/15/",
   "/authors/samet-yalica/picks/16/",
   "/authors/samet-yalica/picks/17/",
   "/authors/samet-yalica/picks/18/",
   "/authors/samet-yalica/picks/19/",
   "/authors/samet-yalica/picks/20/",
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   "/authors/samet-yalica/picks/22/",
   "/authors/samet-yalica/picks/23/",
   "/authors/samet-yalica/picks/24/",
   "/authors/samet-yalica/picks/25/",
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   "/authors/samet-yalica/picks/28/",
   "/authors/samet-yalica/picks/29/",
   "/authors/samet-yalica/picks/30/",
   "/authors/samet-yalica/picks/31/",
   "/authors/samet-yalica/picks/32/",
   "/authors/samet-yalica/picks/33/",
   "/authors/samet-yalica/picks/34/",
   "/authors/samet-yalica/picks/35/",
   "/authors/samet-yalica/picks/36/",
   "/authors/samet-yalica/picks/37/",
   "/authors/samet-yalica/picks/38/",
   "/authors/samet-yalica/picks/39/",
   "/authors/samet-yalica/picks/40/"
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  "groups": {
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  },
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  "page": 1,
  "first": 1,
  "last": 20,
  "author_url": "/authors/samet-yalica/",
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 },
 "title_tag": "Samet Yalica Predictions: Verified Record, Results and Sources",
 "calculator": null,
 "person": {
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  "type_code": "individual",
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    "medium": "FutbolTR",
    "channel": "section pages",
    "domain": "futboltr.com",
    "source_info": null,
    "byline": "Samet Yalica",
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    "summary": {
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     "predictions": 764,
     "settled_picks": 172,
     "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
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 },
 "data_revision": {
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  "price_rule": "reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
  "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
  "sample": {
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   "matches": 172,
   "void": 0,
   "period_from": "2025-02-15",
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 },
 "number_changes": [
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   "url": "/authors/samet-yalica/",
   "category": "data_corrected",
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    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
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    "composition_hash": "ed17413d3bae5d13830ce0bee23e9f9128e24883720ee1482fe43b2a608003d1",
    "text": "−10.75% on 173 settled picks across 173 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
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    "matches": 172,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
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    "composition_hash": "d7992ebf3ba426d2fcb1dd0ea996cde82e8da354c2d986dffdf54d05dd95f82e",
    "text": "−10.23% on 172 settled picks across 172 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Data corrected: 1 pick left the headline sample.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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   "correction_id": "i-0973fb823e676b1391ed"
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  {
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   "url": "/authors/samet-yalica/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
   "category_words": "Coverage extended",
   "before": null,
   "after": {
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    "return_percent": "-10.75",
    "settled_picks": 173,
    "matches": 173,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "ed17413d3bae5d13830ce0bee23e9f9128e24883720ee1482fe43b2a608003d1",
    "text": "−10.75% on 173 settled picks across 173 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "First headline number for this record: 173 settled picks in the series “historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only”.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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    "removed": 0,
    "changed": 0
   },
   "correction_id": null
  }
 ],
 "counts_by_slice": {
  "portions": [
   {
    "code": "archived",
    "title": "Archived before kick-off",
    "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "settled_picks": 172,
    "total_check": true,
    "market_list": [
     {
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      "in_words": "Match result",
      "url": null,
      "settled_picks": 100,
      "won": 52,
      "void": 0,
      "net_points_hundredths": -39900,
      "return_percent": "-4.0",
      "period_from": "2025-02-15",
      "period_to": "2026-01-10",
      "small_sample": false,
      "average_odds": "1.72",
      "odds_from_author": 100,
      "odds_from_snapshot": 0
     },
     {
      "code_name": "both_teams_score",
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      "settled_picks": 59,
      "won": 27,
      "void": 0,
      "net_points_hundredths": -128400,
      "return_percent": "-21.8",
      "period_from": "2025-02-15",
      "period_to": "2026-01-10",
      "small_sample": false,
      "average_odds": "1.59",
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      "odds_from_snapshot": 0
     },
     {
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      "settled_picks": 10,
      "won": 4,
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