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They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.", "page_category": "author" }, "restrictions": { "name_withdrawn": false, "tracker_number": null, "withdrawn_quotes": [], "removed_at": null, "cause": null, "suspended_records": [], "withdrawal_log_number": 0 }, "page_links": { "methodology": "/methodology/", "right_of_reply": "/right-of-reply/", "source_coverage": "/coverage/", "corrections_log": "/corrections/", "api": "/api/", "claim": "/claim/" }, "entity": { "id": "e-83fcbe864bff5035a97ab42d", "public_name": "Sam Varley", "tracker_number": 2103, "status": "active", "inactive_since": null, "verified_creator": false, "observation_period": { "since": "2026-10-02", "until": "2026-11-07" }, "platform_list": [ { "medium": "website", "handle": null, "url": null, "link_confirmed": false, "show": true } ], "comment": null }, "headline_number": { "metric": { "metric_id": "p-e-83fcbe864bff5035a97ab42d-roi-market-price-90d-z99", "code_name": "roi_market_price", "display_name": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot", "window_kind": "90d", "window_from": "2026-08-09", "window_to": "2026-11-07", "amount": "-24.5018", "unit": "percent", "data_status": "calculated", "cause": null, "n_bets": 11, "n_events": 6, "n_void": 0, "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "ci_method": "not_estimated", "price_source": "market_price", "coverage_percent": "0.00", "breakdown": [], "methodology_version": "2.2", "data_date": "2026-11-07T18:02:00.867Z", "enough_for_ranking": false, "series_uid": null, "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot" }, "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 11 settled picks across 6 matches", "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, "metrics": [], "history": [], "simulation": { "series_uid": "sr-4674b27ad583533c1f13cd03", "bankroll_hundredths": 990000, "reserve_hundredths": 0, "issued_total_hundredths": 1000000, "top_up_count": 0, "profit_hundredths": -10000, "rewards_off": null, "initial_hundredths": 1000000, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "data_points": [ { "at": "2026-10-24T14:46:19.536Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 990000, "profit_hundredths": -10000, "outcome_id": "ish-d39f3b8ba6adc8bcfd9ff585" } ], "top_ups": [], "rule": "When the balance falls below 100 points and no bets are open, 10000 points are added; the remaining balance is kept. 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"https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/sheffield-wednesday/preview/sheff-weds-vs-afc-wimbledon-prediction-team-news-lineups_606995.html", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-b0d8743d98baaf1dc61058a6", "url": "/authors/sam-varley/picks/2/#pick-n-b0d8743d98baaf1dc61058a6", "quote_text": "We say: Plymouth Argyle 1-1 Huddersfield Town", "fragment_from": 5167, "fragment_to": 5212, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "rss", "url": "https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/plymouth-argyle/preview/plymouth-vs-huddersfield-prediction-team-news-lineups_606993.html", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Sam Varley", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "4cba2b9ea35188bac3661eaa7b036d331807dd85806722f1435c0cc8e258781b", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-15T19:40:21.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-15T20:09:52.198Z", "executed_at": null, 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"result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-bf3d4fe9c01e42af71c87daa", "url": "/authors/sam-varley/picks/2/#pick-n-bf3d4fe9c01e42af71c87daa", "quote_text": "We say: Portsmouth 1-2 Sheffield United", "fragment_from": 4945, "fragment_to": 4984, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "rss", "url": "https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/portsmouth/preview/portsmouth-vs-sheff-utd-prediction-team-news-lineups_606753.html", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Sam Varley", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "70c1d33663ac5f0e4401202ea339fc5af95f8feae6487e3da2f444465a2bfad7", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-12T19:43:56.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-13T01:09:48.690Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "score_forecast", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": "s-7cede4ef3316", "display_name": "Portsmouth — Sheffield United", "competition_name": "EFL Championship", "starts_at": "2026-10-14T18:45:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/portsmouth-vs-sheffield-united-2026-10-14/", "scoreline": "3-2", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "Correct score", "outcome_label": "Portsmouth 1-2 Sheffield United", "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": "loss", "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-12T19:43:56.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-10-12T19:43:56.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-13T01:09:48.690Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Correct score", "choice": "Portsmouth 1-2 Sheffield United", "author_odds": null, "market_key": "correct_score_market", "choice_key": "1-2", "period": "match", "line": null, "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Correct score: Portsmouth 1-2 Sheffield United" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "loss", "scoreline": "3-2", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Did not match: the final score was Portsmouth 3-2 Sheffield United." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "9a0ed06bac6720329ea6aa20294c633e099c12db7a2e41dcea92b15e47318933", "series_key": "derived_series", "series_label": "Forecast Record reconstruction from the predicted score", "derived": true, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": false, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "choice": "Sheffield United", "decimal_odds": "2.9100", "odds_role": "market_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "loss", "result_words": "Lost", "change_hundredths": -10000, "executed_at": "2026-10-13T01:11:42.578Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": false, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": { "material_author": "Sam Varley", "publisher": "Sports Mole", "forecaster": "Sam Varley", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/portsmouth/preview/portsmouth-vs-sheff-utd-prediction-team-news-lineups_606753.html", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-00f3ffdf93fbaaf0ebe97c4c", "url": "/authors/sam-varley/picks/2/#pick-n-00f3ffdf93fbaaf0ebe97c4c", "quote_text": "We say: Stockport County 2-0 Barnsley", "fragment_from": 4907, "fragment_to": 4944, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "rss", "url": "https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/stockport-county/preview/stockport-vs-barnsley-prediction-team-news-lineups_606517.html", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Sam Varley", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "09213b7e3cba7ddba0c4bb02647c969ca4491ef22801157d166d0eb5ecf9bc21", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-09T00:03:27.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-09T01:07:54.177Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "score_forecast", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": "s-383a51971bb8", "display_name": "Stockport County — Barnsley", "competition_name": "EFL League One", "starts_at": "2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/stockport-county-vs-barnsley-2026-10-10/", "scoreline": "3-1", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "Correct score", "outcome_label": "Stockport County 2-0 Barnsley", "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": "loss", "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-09T00:03:27.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-10-09T00:03:27.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-09T01:07:54.177Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Correct score", "choice": "Stockport County 2-0 Barnsley", "author_odds": null, "market_key": "correct_score_market", "choice_key": "2-0", "period": "match", "line": null, "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Correct score: Stockport County 2-0 Barnsley" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "loss", "scoreline": "3-1", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Did not match: the final score was Stockport County 3-1 Barnsley." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "85625e4927d6c005c24e9f35573dc21330e5b0e7614abd1ed9b74a5ad6a5c76d", "series_key": "derived_series", "series_label": "Forecast Record reconstruction from the predicted score", "derived": true, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": false, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "choice": "Stockport County", "decimal_odds": "1.4200", "odds_role": "market_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "win", "result_words": "Won", "change_hundredths": 4200, "executed_at": "2026-10-22T11:02:14.762Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": false, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": { "material_author": "Sam Varley", "publisher": "Sports Mole", "forecaster": "Sam Varley", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/stockport-county/preview/stockport-vs-barnsley-prediction-team-news-lineups_606517.html", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-48c8d8d7ee64ec7e9f255ab0", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-48c8d8d7ee64ec7e9f255ab0", "quote_text": "Jack Armer has scored three league goals from a wing-back role this season", "fragment_from": 3945, "fragment_to": 4019, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "rss", "url": "https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/preview/doncaster-vs-burton-albion-prediction-team-news-lineups_606410.html", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Sam Varley", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "e4177ea67df82d8245f7e8555814424f733caab4f2bc60faf80460b3ea504d4d", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-08T22:02:58.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-08T23:05:44.419Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": 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"data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-fd836d0dab80e6e12aa5b0ef", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-fd836d0dab80e6e12aa5b0ef", "quote_text": "While Gary Bowyer's men have conceded 15 goals in those games", "fragment_from": 2246, "fragment_to": 2307, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "rss", "url": "https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/preview/doncaster-vs-burton-albion-prediction-team-news-lineups_606410.html", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Sam Varley", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "e4177ea67df82d8245f7e8555814424f733caab4f2bc60faf80460b3ea504d4d", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-08T22:02:58.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-08T23:05:44.419Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-08T22:02:58.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-10-08T22:02:58.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-08T23:05:44.419Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-7ed5d431fb1a623e28931416", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-7ed5d431fb1a623e28931416", "quote_text": "Grant McCann's side scored just six goals and conceded nine in those games", "fragment_from": 1091, "fragment_to": 1165, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "rss", "url": "https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/preview/doncaster-vs-burton-albion-prediction-team-news-lineups_606410.html", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Sam Varley", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "e4177ea67df82d8245f7e8555814424f733caab4f2bc60faf80460b3ea504d4d", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-08T22:02:58.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-08T23:05:44.419Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-08T22:02:58.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-10-08T22:02:58.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-08T23:05:44.419Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-d72dce66d8837b6a32131f1b", "url": "/authors/sam-varley/picks/2/#pick-n-d72dce66d8837b6a32131f1b", "quote_text": "We say: Doncaster Rovers 1-1 Burton Albion", "fragment_from": 4533, "fragment_to": 4575, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "rss", "url": "https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/preview/doncaster-vs-burton-albion-prediction-team-news-lineups_606410.html", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Sam 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"bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-08T22:02:58.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-10-08T22:02:58.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-08T23:05:44.419Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Correct score", "choice": "Doncaster Rovers 1-1 Burton Albion", "author_odds": null, "market_key": "correct_score_market", "choice_key": "1-1", "period": "match", "line": null, "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Correct score: Doncaster Rovers 1-1 Burton Albion" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "loss", "scoreline": "1-0", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Did not match: the final score was Doncaster Rovers 1-0 Burton Albion." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "9256ff170d07214ee2c8af86d84bf2adeff3fa119b1a943a0458cfb044a5d675", "series_key": "derived_series", "series_label": "Forecast Record reconstruction from the predicted score", "derived": true, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": false, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "choice": "draw", "decimal_odds": "3.8500", "odds_role": "market_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "loss", "result_words": "Lost", "change_hundredths": -10000, "executed_at": "2026-10-22T12:28:25.063Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": false, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": { "material_author": "Sam Varley", "publisher": "Sports Mole", "forecaster": "Sam Varley", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/preview/doncaster-vs-burton-albion-prediction-team-news-lineups_606410.html", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-cc1e8b4fd5bd0961a360b5e9", "url": "/authors/sam-varley/picks/2/#pick-n-cc1e8b4fd5bd0961a360b5e9", "quote_text": "We say: Huddersfield Town 1-1 Sheffield Wednesday", "fragment_from": 5002, "fragment_to": 5051, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "rss", "url": "https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/huddersfield-town/preview/huddersfield-vs-sheff-weds-prediction-team-news-lineups_606509.html", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Sam Varley", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "9be5acd0383b427c1937e61f79985d85e549e5f9f0f718b1b7d7bf46d0d02360", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-08T21:54:02.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-08T22:03:51.985Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "score_forecast", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": "s-81039255608a", "display_name": "Huddersfield Town — Sheffield Wednesday", "competition_name": "EFL League One", "starts_at": "2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/huddersfield-town-vs-sheffield-wednesday-2026-10-10/", "scoreline": "2-2", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "Correct score", "outcome_label": "Huddersfield Town 1-1 Sheffield Wednesday", "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": "loss", "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": 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"2.2", "in_words": "Did not match: the final score was Huddersfield Town 2-2 Sheffield Wednesday." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "2b62c8b749c30fa16011a16ab0570662b617299d9521b7307a626b928e70b49a", "series_key": "derived_series", "series_label": "Forecast Record reconstruction from the predicted score", "derived": true, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": false, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "choice": "draw", "decimal_odds": "3.9000", "odds_role": "market_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "win", "result_words": "Won", "change_hundredths": 29000, "executed_at": "2026-10-22T12:24:05.491Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": false, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": { "material_author": "Sam Varley", "publisher": "Sports Mole", "forecaster": "Sam Varley", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/huddersfield-town/preview/huddersfield-vs-sheff-weds-prediction-team-news-lineups_606509.html", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-9b95bda6a09e7a4aef5bfae3", "url": "/authors/sam-varley/picks/2/#pick-n-9b95bda6a09e7a4aef5bfae3", "quote_text": "We say: Sheffield United 1-0 Lincoln City", "fragment_from": 4428, "fragment_to": 4469, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "rss", "url": "https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/sheffield-united/preview/sheff-utd-vs-lincoln-prediction-team-news-lineups_606407.html", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Sam Varley", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": 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"withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-08T21:55:36.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-10-08T21:55:36.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-08T22:03:50.748Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Correct score", "choice": "Sheffield United 1-0 Lincoln City", "author_odds": null, "market_key": "correct_score_market", "choice_key": "1-0", "period": "match", "line": null, "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Correct score: Sheffield United 1-0 Lincoln City" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "loss", "scoreline": "3-0", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Did not match: the final 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"The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/sheffield-united/preview/sheff-utd-vs-lincoln-prediction-team-news-lineups_606407.html", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-9c43eaa89d0de3d02001137a", "url": "/authors/sam-varley/picks/2/#pick-n-9c43eaa89d0de3d02001137a", "quote_text": "we back the Millers to come out on top against their former boss at the weekend", "fragment_from": 4528, "fragment_to": 4607, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "rss", "url": "https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/exeter-city/preview/exeter-vs-rotherham-prediction-team-news-lineups_606102.html", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Sam Varley", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "78a36469c9bd4b1a8de94d668d783563a76a67346494f97588278afdc0347685", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-02T00:24:25.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-02T01:03:53.652Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "unpriced", "status": "not_supported", "cause": "", "cause_code": "not_supported", "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-02T00:24:25.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-10-02T00:24:25.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-02T01:03:53.652Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-dbebf95efc58192f16aafbf7", "url": "/authors/sam-varley/picks/2/#pick-n-dbebf95efc58192f16aafbf7", "quote_text": "We say: Exeter City 0-1 Rotherham United", "fragment_from": 4292, "fragment_to": 4332, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "rss", "url": "https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/exeter-city/preview/exeter-vs-rotherham-prediction-team-news-lineups_606102.html", "display_name": 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"https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/salford-city/preview/salford-city-vs-fleetwood-prediction-team-news-lineups_606101.html", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Sam Varley", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "415282aa13dcfe8ac026ac3dbe645f0229fdc2e42ebaec473868aa2bf3fb1dbe", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-01T23:52:17.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:07:23.814Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "unpriced", "status": "not_supported", "cause": "", "cause_code": "not_supported", "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-01T23:52:17.000Z", 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Goals over/under 1/5 (5 matches); Match result (1X2) 3/5 (5 matches); Both teams to score 0/3 (3 matches); Corners and cards 1/1 (1 match); Other markets 0/1 (1 match)", "url": null, "provenance": "live", "display_name": "Most recorded bet type", "rule_href": "/titles/m-11-most-recorded-bet-type/" }, { "code_name": "CS-01", "body": "Exact scores · 0/18", "details_words": null, "url": null, "provenance": "live", "display_name": "Exact scores", "rule_href": "/titles/cs-01-exact-scores/" } ], "history": [] }, "retro": null, "late": null, "price_vs_market": null, "record_summary": { "contract_version": "1", "entity_type": "person", "entity_words": "Individual author", "source": { "name": "footballwhispers.com", "url": "https://footballwhispers.com/blog/brest-vs-lyon-prediction-08-11-2026/" }, "observed_from": "2026-10-02", "observed_to": "2026-11-07", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "state": "settled", "series_code": "market_price", "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price", "restored": false, "headline_kind": "live_snapshot", "headline_part": "live", "settled_picks": 11, "matches": 6, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -26952, "staked_hundredths": 110000, "return_percent": "-24.50", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "period_from": "2026-10-21", "period_to": "2026-11-05", "status": "calculated", "method_version": "2.2", "short_history": true, "reason": null, "reasons": [], "sentence": "Forecast Record recorded 11 settled live picks by Sam Varley before kick-off across 6 matches between 21 October and 5 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −24.5% on the total staked. Of the 57 predictions we hold for Sam Varley, 38 are linked to matches: 38 were recorded by us before kick-off. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "numbers": [ { "label": "Settled live picks", "value": "11", "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick", "note": null }, { "label": "Matches", "value": "6", "anchor": "/methodology/#match", "note": null }, { "label": "Net result", "value": "−269.52 points", "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement", "note": "100 points per pick" }, { "label": "Return at our recorded market price", "value": "−24.5%", "anchor": "/methodology/#roi", "note": null } ], "limitations": [ "This page combines Sam Varley across 2 platforms. The record above counts each prediction once, even when the same pick (match, market and selection) appeared on more than one platform; each platform keeps its own total under “Where Sam Varley publishes”." ], "other_series": [], "return_over_time": [ { "date": "2026-10-21", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -8113, "n": 2 }, { "date": "2026-10-22", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -38113, "n": 5 }, { "date": "2026-10-24", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -48113, "n": 6 }, { "date": "2026-10-27", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -6952, "n": 9 }, { "date": "2026-11-05", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -26952, "n": 11 } ], "return_over_time_parts": { "live": { "part": "live", "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "x_axis": "match_date", "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.", "settled_picks": 11, "matches": 6, "match_dates": 5, "period_from": "2026-10-21", "period_to": "2026-11-05", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "final_points_hundredths": -26952, "low": { "date": "2026-10-24", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -48113, "after_picks": 6 }, "high": { "date": "2026-10-27", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -6952, "after_picks": 9 }, "line_drawn": true, "steps": [ { "date": "2026-10-21", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -8113, "n": 2, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2026-10-22", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -38113, "n": 5, "picks": 3 }, { "date": "2026-10-24", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -48113, "n": 6, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-27", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -6952, "n": 9, "picks": 3 }, { "date": "2026-11-05", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -26952, "n": 11, "picks": 2 } ] }, "archived": null }, "author_response": null, "cite": { "text": "Forecast Record recorded 11 settled live picks by Sam Varley before kick-off across 6 matches between 21 October and 5 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −24.5% on the total staked. Of the 57 predictions we hold for Sam Varley, 38 are linked to matches: 38 were recorded by us before kick-off. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/sam-varley/", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "2.2" }, "origin": { "contract_version": "1", "predictions": 57, "under_review": 0, "no_match_linked": 19, "proven_predictions": 38, "proven_checked": 37, "proven_measured": 31, "proven_dates": 11, "parts": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.", "predictions": 38, "checked": 37, "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "series_code": "market_price", "main": { "settled_picks": 11, "void": 0, "matches": 6, "net_points_hundredths": -26952, "staked_hundredths": 110000, "return_percent": "-24.50", "interval_low": null, "interval_high": null, "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval", "period_from": "2026-10-21", "period_to": "2026-11-05", "method_version": "2.2", "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0", "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.0", "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 1 }, "same_picks": [ { "price": "Author-quoted price", "series_code": "author_price", "picks": 9, "return_main_percent": "-20.93", "return_other_percent": "-20.89", "settled_excluding_void": 9, "net_main_points_hundredths": -18839, "net_other_points_hundredths": -18800, "period_from": "2026-10-21", "period_to": "2026-11-05" }, { "price": "Closing price", "series_code": "closing_live", "picks": 7, "return_main_percent": "-30.79", "return_other_percent": "-32.12", "settled_excluding_void": 7, "net_main_points_hundredths": -21552, "net_other_points_hundredths": -22481, "period_from": "2026-10-21", "period_to": "2026-11-05" } ], "score": { "score_forecasts": 20, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": 0.0, "outcome_checked": 20, "outcome_hits": 12, "outcome_rate": 60.0, "baseline_matches": 9, "baseline_distinct_matches": 9, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 4, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": 44.4, "favourite_hits": 6, "favourite_rate": 66.7, "price_basis": "our pre-match snapshot", "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [ "Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.", "0 of 20 score forecasts named the exact score (0.0%).", "The result implied by the named score was right in 4 of 9 matches; the market favourite was right in 6 of the same 9 matches.", "A pre-match market favourite is known for 9 of 20 forecasts; the comparison uses only those.", "The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest price in our own odds snapshot taken before kick-off.", "The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win)." ] }, "eligible": { "checked": 37, "priced": 11 }, "accuracy": { "picks": 11, "won": 4, "won_percent": "36.4", "implied_percent": "53.2", "left_out": 0, "by_market": [ { "market": "Both teams to score", "won": 0, "picks": 3, "implied_percent": "56.0" }, { "market": "Match result", "won": 2, "picks": 3, "implied_percent": "67.8" }, { "market": "Over/under goals", "won": 1, "picks": 3, "implied_percent": "57.9" }, { "market": "Corners over/under", "won": 1, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "28.9" }, { "market": "Correct score", "won": 0, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "11.8" } ] }, "reviewed_after": { "predictions": 5, "right": 0, "wrong": 5, "other": 0 } }, { "code": "archived", "title": "Archived before kick-off", "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.", "predictions": 0, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null }, { "code": "found_after", "title": "Found after the match", "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.", "predictions": 0, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null } ] }, "live_alongside": null, "headline_record_ids": [ "n-125aaf3b50c9b2f407a7d8dc", "n-215a926a0def95855a289a18", "n-22b3cc50f5a30d7b5a2be113", "n-292de571bffdb966ddd46217", "n-3316953968296a401a74cdf2", "n-4663778e5ecbcbbdeb0c3876", "n-58d713a3d9b530a3b439b9d3", "n-5da06114412228f73ab6b391", "n-7a9f7c4ac5164eeaf79c30c8", "n-85a5046a346f32cd61e98f4f", "n-bc7981a148d06c17a5c24463" ], "interval_low": null, "interval_high": null, "caption": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price · 100 points per pick · 21 October – 5 November 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under method v2.2", "record_from": "2026-10-02", "record_to": "2026-11-07" }, "recorded_picks": [ { "record_id": "n-7a9f7c4ac5164eeaf79c30c8", "url": "/authors/sam-varley/picks/4/#pick-n-7a9f7c4ac5164eeaf79c30c8", "match": "Lillestrom v Plzen", "match_url": "/football/matches/lillestrom-vs-plzen-2026-11-05/", "kickoff": "2026-11-05T17:45:00.000Z", "competition": "UEFA Europa League", "lead_hours": 42.8, "market_code": "both_teams_score", "author_said": "Both teams to score: yes at 1.5", "quote": null, "group": "settled", "outcome": "Lost", "claim_outcome": "Lost", "final_score": "0-1", "reason": null, "reason_code": null, "points_hundredths": -10000, "series_code": "market_price", "series_short": "odds snapshot", "author_price": "1.5", "settled_price": "1.4902", "published_at": "2026-11-03T22:48:26.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-11-03T22:54:17.188Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": true, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": "Football Whispers", "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-7a9f7c4ac5164eeaf79c30c8", "quote_text": "> Both Teams to Score at 1/2 (1.50)", "fragment_from": 5106, "fragment_to": 5141, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "rss", "url": "https://footballwhispers.com/blog/lillestrom-vs-viktoria-plzen-prediction-05-11-2026/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Sam Varley", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "f95e623e5126d4e582db25fa4ea233b3c836b4a461e3835f5c1cdb538dbc0584", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-11-03T22:48:26.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-03T22:54:17.188Z", "executed_at": "2026-11-07T09:32:16.681Z", "statement_class": "priced", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": "s-2ffe5c8e8e97", "display_name": "Lillestrom — Plzen", "competition_name": "UEFA Europa League", "starts_at": "2026-11-05T17:45:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/lillestrom-vs-plzen-2026-11-05/", "scoreline": "0-1", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "Both teams to score", "outcome_label": "yes", "odds_set": { "by_author": "1.5", "our_snapshot": "1.4902", "our_snapshot_at": "2026-11-03T22:50:12.883Z", "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot", "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "loss", "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": "ours", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-11-03T22:48:26.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-11-03T22:48:26.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-03T22:54:17.188Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Both teams to score", "choice": "yes", "author_odds": "1.5", "market_key": "both_teams_score", "choice_key": "yes", "period": "match", "line": null, "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Both teams to score: yes at 1.5" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "loss", "scoreline": "0-1", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Lillestrom 0-1 Plzen." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "eb69fa4883e9955cc60cb8f3bc0dda22f36b498ce27a71e751bc517ae18fa237", "series_key": "author_price", "series_label": "At the author's stated price", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Both teams to score", "choice": "yes", "decimal_odds": "1.5", "odds_role": "author_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "loss", "result_words": "Lost", "change_hundredths": -10000, "executed_at": "2026-11-07T09:32:14.867Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false }, { "operation_id": "6c7c59cc208bc7ce6ffff361092dc55a6c7c5a4d750c70dcb9b0eeb0dca8d0cd", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Both teams to score", "choice": "yes", "decimal_odds": "1.4902", "odds_role": "market_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "loss", "result_words": "Lost", "change_hundredths": -10000, "executed_at": "2026-11-07T09:32:16.681Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "settled_pick", "authorship": { "material_author": "Sam Varley", "publisher": "Football Whispers", "forecaster": "Sam Varley", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://footballwhispers.com/blog/lillestrom-vs-viktoria-plzen-prediction-05-11-2026/", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null, "choice_words": "yes (Both teams to score)" } }, { "record_id": "n-85a5046a346f32cd61e98f4f", "url": 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"price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-3a65aa5068f0e533202e9c50", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "He should again get the chance to shine on Tuesday and is priced at 5/4 (2.25) to score anytime and make it four in four against a leaky Czechia defence.", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "national-team match (Nations League, qualifiers, continental cups)", "reason_code": "outside_coverage", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-04T21:31:13.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-04T21:36:14.413Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": "Football Whispers", "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-060efb8344eaa8b0a015ab54", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "England Half-Time result is priced at 4/9 (1.44).", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "national-team match (Nations League, qualifiers, continental cups)", "reason_code": "outside_coverage", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-04T21:31:13.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-04T21:36:14.413Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": "Football Whispers", "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-d8f90ac8ff8b9b83d7c52177", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Mikel Merino to score anytime at 12.5 (3.40)", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "national-team match (Nations League, qualifiers, continental cups)", "reason_code": "outside_coverage", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-04T20:08:51.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-04T20:18:00.988Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": "Football Whispers", "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-9c43eaa89d0de3d02001137a", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "we back the Millers to come out on top against their former boss at the weekend", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-02T00:24:25.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-02T01:03:53.652Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-dbebf95efc58192f16aafbf7", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "We say: Exeter City 0-1 Rotherham United", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-02T00:24:25.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-02T01:03:53.652Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-98de3dece30b4591ec5d156c", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "We fancy the Ammies to make it five league wins in six at the weekend.", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-01T23:52:17.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-02T00:07:23.814Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-b405312d2b8aa80194850be0", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "We say: Salford City 3-1 Fleetwood Town", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-01T23:52:17.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-02T00:07:23.814Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null } ], "lead_time": { "contract_version": 1, "threshold_hours": 2.0, "picks": 38, "before_kickoff": 38, "after_kickoff": 0, "at_least_2h": 38, "share_2h_plus": 100.0, "median_hours": 43.2, "min_hours": 30.8, "max_hours": 51.0, "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off." }, "baseline": { "contract_version": 1, "series_code": "market_price", "rule": "recorded-line-1.0", "state": "settled", "picks": 19, "settled_picks_all": 29, "excluded": { "market_without_favourite": 2, "no_recorded_line": 8, "favourite_not_settled": 0 }, "staked_hundredths": 190000, "author_net_hundredths": -46108, "favourite_net_hundredths": -38512, "difference_hundredths": -7596, "author_return_percent": -24.27, "favourite_return_percent": -20.27, "author_hit_rate": 42.1, "favourite_hit_rate": 47.4, "picked_favourite_share": 68.4, "by_market": [ { "market_code": "1x2", "picks": 14, "staked_hundredths": 140000, "author_net_hundredths": -15912, "favourite_net_hundredths": -4112, "author_hits": 7, "favourite_hits": 8, "picked_favourite": 10, "author_return_percent": -11.37, "favourite_return_percent": -2.94 }, { "market_code": "total", "picks": 3, "staked_hundredths": 30000, "author_net_hundredths": -10196, "favourite_net_hundredths": -30000, "author_hits": 1, "favourite_hits": 0, "picked_favourite": 2, "author_return_percent": -33.99, "favourite_return_percent": -100.0 }, { "market_code": "both_teams_score", "picks": 2, "staked_hundredths": 20000, "author_net_hundredths": -20000, "favourite_net_hundredths": -4400, "author_hits": 0, "favourite_hits": 1, "picked_favourite": 1, "author_return_percent": -100.0, "favourite_return_percent": -22.0 } ], "return_over_time": [ { "kickoff": "2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 11000, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 10700 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-14T18:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 1000, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 23500 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -9000, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 13500 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -7113, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 15387 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -17113, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 5387 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -15226, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 7274 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -25226, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -2726 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -35226, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 2874 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -45226, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -7126 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -55226, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -17126 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -51926, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -13826 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -29426, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -23826 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -39426, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -33826 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-27T19:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -29622, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -43826 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-27T19:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -22865, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -37069 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-27T19:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -16108, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -30312 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-05T17:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -26108, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -40312 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-05T17:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -36108, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -28512 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-07T15:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -46108, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -38512 } ], "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out." }, "pagination": { "per_page": 20, "total": 57, "pages": 4, "page_urls": [ "/authors/sam-varley/", "/authors/sam-varley/picks/2/", "/authors/sam-varley/picks/3/", "/authors/sam-varley/picks/4/" ], "groups": { "settled": 11, "pending": 0, "excluded": 46 }, "continuation": "by_time", "page": 1, "first": 1, "last": 20, "author_url": "/authors/sam-varley/", "current": false }, "title_tag": "Sam Varley Predictions: Verified Record, Results and Sources", "calculator": null, "person": { "person_id": "o-83fcbe864bff5035a97ab42d", "type_code": "individual", "name_shown": "Sam Varley", "main_entity": "e-83fcbe864bff5035a97ab42d", "identity": { "status": "not_verified", "is_verified": false, "when": null, "source_list": [] }, "platform_list": [ { "entity_ref": "e-83fcbe864bff5035a97ab42d", "medium": "Sports Mole", "channel": "RSS feed", "domain": "sportsmole.co.uk", "source_info": "sports-mole", "byline": "Sam Varley", "url": "/sources/sports-mole/", "summary": { "statements": 56, "predictions": 26, "settled_picks": 1, "headline_kind": "live_snapshot", "return_percent": -100.0, "headline_part": "live", "period_from": "2026-10-02", "period_to": "2026-11-06" } }, { "entity_ref": "e-621744418c255069c7d7ab4f", "medium": "Football Whispers", "channel": "RSS feed", "domain": "footballwhispers.com", "source_info": "football-whispers", "byline": "Sam Varley", "url": "/sources/football-whispers/", "summary": { "statements": 47, "predictions": 31, "settled_picks": 10, "headline_kind": "live_snapshot", "return_percent": -16.95, "headline_part": "live", "period_from": "2026-10-04", "period_to": "2026-11-07" } } ], "previously": [], "trust_tier": "tracked" }, "data_revision": { "data_version": "2026-11-07.2", "updated": "2026-11-07", "current_release": "2026-11-07.2", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "2.2", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "series_code": "market_price", "sample": { "settled_picks": 11, "matches": 6, "void": 0, "period_from": "2026-10-21", "period_to": "2026-11-05", "composition_hash": "47378ba09b89232fef98539ef451ca737a36e224279dcecd3497966bfee73363" }, "changes_url": "#changes", "corrections_url": "/corrections/" }, "number_changes": [ { "id": "zc-2ddbc77c868a123a9db0", "at": "2026-11-07T20:05:20.937Z", "data_version": "2026-11-07.2", "previous_data_version": "2026-11-07.1", "url": "/authors/sam-varley/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-11-06.1", "return_percent": "-16.95", "settled_picks": 10, "matches": 6, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "563f512f257a85198110956ec61c0d36bf6a3669ca9424151c03aa18722fbb6d", "text": "−16.95% on 10 settled picks across 6 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-11-07.2", "return_percent": "-24.50", "settled_picks": 11, "matches": 6, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "47378ba09b89232fef98539ef451ca737a36e224279dcecd3497966bfee73363", "text": "−24.50% on 11 settled picks across 6 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-f5533e3011a74aec5dde", "at": "2026-11-06T14:46:17.511Z", "data_version": "2026-11-06.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-11-05.3", "url": "/authors/sam-varley/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-28.1", "return_percent": "-7.72", "settled_picks": 9, "matches": 5, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "786fa00489fa76f81412c52b3d1ddc873787f1515deab44cd153f4ffa2a01dc0", "text": "−69.52 points on 9 settled picks across 5 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-11-06.1", "return_percent": "-16.95", "settled_picks": 10, "matches": 6, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "563f512f257a85198110956ec61c0d36bf6a3669ca9424151c03aa18722fbb6d", "text": "−16.95% on 10 settled picks across 6 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-3edeeaf45dfefbbaecf7", "at": "2026-10-28T01:24:12.367Z", "data_version": "2026-10-28.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-27.3", "url": "/authors/sam-varley/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-24.4", "return_percent": "-80.19", "settled_picks": 6, "matches": 4, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "a9fc4733a4f8f7babc732dbf289548ca029ef501ee730001f327aa27bb3a8947", "text": "−481.13 points on 6 settled picks across 4 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-28.1", "return_percent": "-7.72", "settled_picks": 9, "matches": 5, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "786fa00489fa76f81412c52b3d1ddc873787f1515deab44cd153f4ffa2a01dc0", "text": "−69.52 points on 9 settled picks across 5 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "3 new settled picks from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 3, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-18d71fa356b1a548369d", "at": "2026-10-24T16:52:01.947Z", "data_version": "2026-10-24.4", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-24.3", "url": "/authors/sam-varley/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-22.6", "return_percent": "-76.23", "settled_picks": 5, "matches": 3, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "86f2a4af3e359735232c39b16480e1ddcf0857f73e3cd16a619e395c817d1fc3", "text": "−381.13 points on 5 settled picks across 3 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-24.4", "return_percent": "-80.19", "settled_picks": 6, "matches": 4, "void": 0, "series_code": 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