{ "schema_name": "page", "schema_version": "2.0", "page_type": "author", "url": "/authors/roberto-casillas/", "canonical": "/authors/roberto-casillas/", "language": "en", "hreflang": [], "translations": [], "heading": "Roberto Casillas: Football Prediction Record", "description": "1 settled pick by Roberto Casillas archived before kick-off across 1 match, 9 Sep 2026: won 1 of 1, reconstructed at archived prices.", "first_paragraph": { "body": "Forecast Record restored 1 settled archived pick by Roberto Casillas from copies archived before kick-off, across 1 match on 9 September 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 1 of 1 settled archived pick. Of the 9 predictions we hold for Roberto Casillas, 9 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive. 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They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.", "page_category": "author" }, "restrictions": { "name_withdrawn": false, "tracker_number": null, "withdrawn_quotes": [], "removed_at": null, "cause": null, "suspended_records": [], "withdrawal_log_number": 0 }, "page_links": { "methodology": "/methodology/", "right_of_reply": "/right-of-reply/", "source_coverage": "/coverage/", "corrections_log": "/corrections/", "api": "/api/", "claim": "/claim/" }, "entity": { "id": "e-bae3a0ad3029c192759006d1", "public_name": "Roberto Casillas", "tracker_number": 1544, "status": "active", "inactive_since": null, "verified_creator": false, "observation_period": { "since": "2026-09-28", "until": "2026-10-01" }, "platform_list": [ { "medium": "website", "handle": null, "url": null, "link_confirmed": false, "show": true } ], "comment": null }, "headline_number": { "metric": { "metric_id": "p-e-bae3a0ad3029c192759006d1-roi-market-price-90d-z99", "code_name": "roi_market_price", "display_name": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot", "window_kind": "90d", "window_from": "2026-08-09", "window_to": "2026-11-07", "amount": null, "unit": "percent", "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "no pick in this window has been settled", "n_bets": 0, "n_events": 0, "n_void": null, "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "ci_method": "not_estimated", "price_source": "market_price", "coverage_percent": null, "breakdown": [], "methodology_version": "2.2", "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "enough_for_ranking": false, "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot" }, "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 0 settled picks across 0 matches", "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, "metrics": [], "history": [], "simulation": { "series_key": null, "series_label": "No level stake placed", "bankroll_hundredths": 1000000, "reserve_hundredths": 0, "issued_total_hundredths": 1000000, "initial_hundredths": 1000000, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "top_up_count": 0, "profit_hundredths": 0, "rewards_off": null, "data_points": [], "top_ups": [], "rule": "Every tracked author starts with 10,000 points and stakes 100 per qualifying pick. This author has 0 settled bets, so the bankroll stands at its starting value." }, "simulations": [], "completeness": { "detected": 932, "recognised": 9, "accepted": 1, "executed": 1, "calculated": 1, "gaps": [ { "cause": "read after the match, from archived pages", "figure": 8 } ] }, "record_counts": { "dictionary_version": "1", "statements": 932, "of_them_restored": 932, "not_predictions": { "opinions": 59, "not_about_a_match": 864, "unclassified": 0 }, "predictions": 9, "predictions_restored": 9, "matches": 0, "admitted": 1, "qualifying_picks": 1, "qualifying_picks_restored": 1, "settled_picks": 1, "settled_picks_restored": 1, "series_list": [ { "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm", "derived": false, "is_restored": true, "qualifying_picks": 1, "settled_picks": 1, "void": 0, "pending_picks": 0, "matches": 1, "operations_settled": 1, "stakes_hundredths": [ 10000 ], "methodologies": [ "retro-1.1" ], "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before 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kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": null, "fragment_basis": "no", "source_page_at": "2024-12-26T06:00:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-01T01:03:50.988Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [ "long_before_detection", "not_fragment_date" ], "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.", "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-4587d67c435529b330ba9d4b", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-4587d67c435529b330ba9d4b", "quote_text": "AM: Kevin De Bruyne—The Belgian was an unused sub against Villa but his ability to pick out a pass might be the key to unlocking a solid Everton defense.", "fragment_from": 2082, "fragment_to": 2235, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241226060744id_/https://www.si.com/soccer/manchester-city-predicted-lineup-vs-everton-premier-league-12-26-24", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Roberto Casillas", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "979682794627749383bf8f788b4f662726eef806edaadbfe74eb9e55bf618001", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-10-01T01:03:50.988Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "restored_archive", "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": null, "fragment_basis": "no", "source_page_at": "2024-12-26T06:00:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-01T01:03:50.988Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [ "long_before_detection", "not_fragment_date" ], "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.", "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null } ], "standing": null, "retro": { "restored_total": 1, "of_them_archived_pre_match": 1, "found_post_match": 0, "of_them_source_reported": 0, "live_count": 0, "date_count": 1, "span_from": "2025-04-08", "span_to": "2026-09-09", "line_text": "restored history: 1, of which pre-match archive 1", "body": "We re-read what this author published before Premier League, League Cup and Champions League matches between 8 April 2025 and 9 September 2026 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 1. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 1. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 0. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.", "precision": { "n": 1, "share": "1.0" }, "series_list": [ { "code_name": "retro_author_price", "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price", "n": 0, "roi": null, "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "data_status": "unknown", "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "cause": "no restored pick with this price" }, { "code_name": "retro_market_closing", "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price", "n": 0, "roi": null, "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "data_status": "unknown", "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "cause": "no restored pick with this price" }, { "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm", "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "n": 1, "roi": "85.5000", "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "data_status": "calculated", "methodology_version": "retro-1.1", "cause": null }, { "code_name": "retro_derived_sm", "display_name": "Restored score forecast: result implied by the score, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "n": 7, "roi": "13.1429", "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "data_status": "calculated", "methodology_version": "retro-1.1", "cause": null } ], "clv": { "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above" }, "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "leagues": [ "Premier League", "League Cup", "Champions League" ], "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 1 settled restored pick, and the two agree; 7 come from one provider only. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged.", "score_accuracy": { "n": 7, "share": "0.1429" } }, "late": null, "price_vs_market": null, "record_summary": { "contract_version": "1", "entity_type": "person", "entity_words": "Individual author", "source": { "name": "si.com", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250408011520id_/https://www.si.com/soccer/bayern-munich-vs-inter-milan-preview-predictions-lineups-4-8-25" }, "observed_from": "2026-09-28", "observed_to": "2026-10-01", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "state": "settled", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "series": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "restored": true, "headline_kind": "historical_simulation", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 1, "matches": 1, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": 8550, "staked_hundredths": 10000, "return_percent": "85.50", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "period_from": "2026-09-09", "period_to": "2026-09-09", "status": "calculated", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "short_history": true, "reason": null, "reasons": [], "sentence": "Forecast Record restored 1 settled archived pick by Roberto Casillas from copies archived before kick-off, across 1 match on 9 September 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 1 of 1 settled archived pick. Of the 9 predictions we hold for Roberto Casillas, 9 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "numbers": [ { "label": "Settled archived picks", "value": "1", "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick", "note": null }, { "label": "Matches", "value": "1", "anchor": "/methodology/#match", "note": null }, { "label": "Net result", "value": "+85.50 points", "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement", "note": "100 points per pick" }, { "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "value": "+85.5%", "anchor": "/methodology/#roi", "note": null } ], "limitations": [ "Reconstructed at archived prices: these picks were restored from copies of the author’s pages that an independent web archive saved before kick-off, at the last pre-match archive prices, bookmaker margin included." ], "other_series": [], "return_over_time": [], "return_over_time_parts": { "live": null, "archived": { "part": "archived", "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "x_axis": "match_date", "dated_note": "Dated by match day. These picks were restored from copies an independent web archive saved before kick-off; the line shows how they settled at archived prices.", "settled_picks": 1, "matches": 1, "match_dates": 1, "period_from": "2026-09-09", "period_to": "2026-09-09", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "final_points_hundredths": 8550, "low": { "date": "2026-09-09", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 8550, "after_picks": 1 }, "high": { "date": "2026-09-09", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 8550, "after_picks": 1 }, "line_drawn": false, "steps": [ { "date": "2026-09-09", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 8550, "n": 1, "picks": 1 } ] } }, "author_response": null, "cite": { "text": "Forecast Record restored 1 settled archived pick by Roberto Casillas from copies archived before kick-off, across 1 match on 9 September 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 1 of 1 settled archived pick. Of the 9 predictions we hold for Roberto Casillas, 9 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/roberto-casillas/", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "retro-1.1" }, "origin": { "contract_version": "1", "predictions": 9, "under_review": 0, "no_match_linked": 0, "proven_predictions": 9, "proven_checked": 8, "proven_measured": 8, "proven_dates": 7, "parts": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.", "predictions": 0, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "series_code": "market_price", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null }, { "code": "archived", "title": "Archived before kick-off", "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.", "predictions": 9, "checked": 8, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": { "settled_picks": 1, "void": 0, "matches": 1, "net_points_hundredths": 8550, "staked_hundredths": 10000, "return_percent": "85.50", "interval_low": null, "interval_high": null, "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval", "period_from": "2026-09-09", "period_to": "2026-09-09", "method_version": "retro-1.1" }, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 7, "exact_hits": 1, "exact_rate": 14.3, "outcome_checked": 7, "outcome_hits": 5, "outcome_rate": 71.4, "baseline_matches": 7, "baseline_distinct_matches": 7, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 5, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": 71.4, "favourite_hits": 5, "favourite_rate": 71.4, "price_basis": "last pre-match archive price", "pending": 1, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [ "Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.", "1 of 7 score forecasts named the exact score.", "The result implied by the named score was right in 5 of 7 matches; the market favourite was right in 5 of the same 7 matches.", "The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off).", "The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win)." ] }, "eligible": { "checked": 8, "priced": 1 }, "accuracy": { "picks": 1, "won": 1, "won_percent": "100.0", "implied_percent": "53.9", "left_out": 0, "by_market": [ { "market": "Match result", "won": 1, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "53.9" } ] } }, { "code": "found_after", "title": "Found after the match", "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.", "predictions": 0, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null } ] }, "live_alongside": null, "headline_record_ids": [ "n-83a5fe991559dad2a44af5b1" ], "interval_low": null, "interval_high": null, "caption": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) · 100 points per pick · 9 September 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under reconstruction method 1.1", "record_from": "2026-09-09", "record_to": "2026-09-09" }, "recorded_picks": [ { "record_id": "n-83a5fe991559dad2a44af5b1", "url": null, "match": "Chelsea v Leeds United", "match_url": null, "kickoff": "2026-09-09T19:15:00.000Z", "competition": "EFL Cup (Carabao)", "lead_hours": -499.9, "market_code": "1x2", "author_said": "1X2, match result: Chelsea", "quote": null, "group": "settled", "outcome": "Won", "claim_outcome": "Won", "final_score": "6-3", "reason": null, "reason_code": null, "points_hundredths": 8550, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored", "author_price": null, "settled_price": "1.8550", "published_at": "2026-09-09T02:00:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:06:17.568Z", "origin": "Archived before kick-off", "record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": true, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-9c29c9fd613ea85740ef8fba", "url": null, "match": "Chelsea v Leeds United", "match_url": null, "kickoff": "2026-09-09T19:15:00.000Z", "competition": "EFL Cup (Carabao)", "lead_hours": -499.9, "market_code": "correct_score_market", "author_said": "Correct score: Chelsea 2-1 Leeds United", "quote": null, "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": "Lost", "final_score": "6-3", "reason": "counted in the restored-history series", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-09-09T02:00:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:06:17.568Z", "origin": "Archived before kick-off", "record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-d561d0f0eee40e4c07867a19", "url": null, "match": "Atlético Madrid v FC Barcelona", "match_url": null, "kickoff": "2026-04-14T19:00:00.000Z", "competition": "UEFA Champions League", "lead_hours": -4052.4, "market_code": "correct_score_market", "author_said": "Correct score: Atlético Madrid 1-2 FC Barcelona", "quote": null, "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": "Won", "final_score": "1-2", "reason": "counted in the restored-history series", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-04-14T00:00:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:23:09.130Z", "origin": "Archived before kick-off", "record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-6b28832d4dcfe4140e9a6900", "url": null, "match": "FC Barcelona v Atlético Madrid", "match_url": null, "kickoff": "2026-04-08T19:00:00.000Z", "competition": "UEFA Champions League", "lead_hours": -4196.4, "market_code": "correct_score_market", "author_said": "Correct score: FC Barcelona 3-1 Atlético Madrid", "quote": null, "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": "Lost", "final_score": "0-2", "reason": "counted in the restored-history series", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-04-08T01:00:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:25:28.412Z", "origin": "Archived before kick-off", "record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-9fd4a554b51ad6d2fc36ca4c", "url": null, "match": "FC Barcelona v Newcastle United", "match_url": null, "kickoff": "2026-03-18T17:45:00.000Z", "competition": "UEFA Champions League", "lead_hours": -4701.8, "market_code": "correct_score_market", "author_said": "Correct score: FC Barcelona 3-1 Newcastle United", "quote": null, "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": "Lost", "final_score": "7-2", "reason": "counted in the restored-history series", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-03-18T01:30:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:33:49.320Z", "origin": "Archived before kick-off", "record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-9a8ef188c8a6506cb1c838c3", "url": null, "match": "Liverpool v Tottenham Hotspur", "match_url": null, "kickoff": "2025-04-27T15:30:00.000Z", "competition": "Premier League", "lead_hours": -12458.6, "market_code": "correct_score_market", "author_said": "Correct score: Liverpool 2-0 Tottenham Hotspur", "quote": null, "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": "Lost", "final_score": "5-1", "reason": "counted in the restored-history series", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-04-26T17:00:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T18:07:24.939Z", "origin": "Archived before kick-off", "record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-6c11c472f479d272561950d3", "url": null, "match": "Borussia Dortmund v FC Barcelona", "match_url": null, "kickoff": "2025-04-15T19:00:00.000Z", "competition": "UEFA Champions League", "lead_hours": -12797.9, "market_code": "correct_score_market", "author_said": "Correct score: Borussia Dortmund 2-1 FC Barcelona", "quote": null, "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "counted in the restored-history series", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-04-08T22:16:29.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-01T00:55:21.812Z", "origin": "Archived before kick-off", "record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-753d1c1d710022a831b57cc1", "url": null, "match": "Paris Saint-Germain v Aston Villa", "match_url": null, "kickoff": "2025-04-09T19:00:00.000Z", "competition": "UEFA Champions League", "lead_hours": -12941.9, "market_code": "correct_score_market", "author_said": "Correct score: Paris Saint-Germain 2-1 Aston Villa", "quote": null, "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": "Lost", "final_score": "3-1", "reason": "counted in the restored-history series", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-04-08T23:25:41.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-01T00:55:17.412Z", "origin": "Archived before kick-off", "record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-2cf95258e5d772430623dd10", "url": null, "match": "FC Bayern München v Inter", "match_url": null, "kickoff": "2025-04-08T19:00:00.000Z", "competition": "UEFA Champions League", "lead_hours": -12965.9, "market_code": "correct_score_market", "author_said": "Correct score: FC Bayern München 1-1 Inter", "quote": null, "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": "Lost", "final_score": "1-2", "reason": "counted in the restored-history series", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-04-08T01:00:34.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-01T00:55:38.895Z", "origin": "Archived before kick-off", "record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null } ], "lead_time": { "contract_version": 1, "threshold_hours": 2.0, "picks": 9, "before_kickoff": 0, "after_kickoff": 9, "at_least_2h": 0, "share_2h_plus": 0.0, "median_hours": null, "min_hours": null, "max_hours": null, "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off." }, "baseline": { "contract_version": 1, "series_code": "market_price", "rule": "recorded-line-1.0", "state": "none", "picks": 0, "settled_picks_all": 0, "excluded": { "market_without_favourite": 0, "no_recorded_line": 0, "favourite_not_settled": 0 }, "staked_hundredths": 0, "author_net_hundredths": 0, "favourite_net_hundredths": 0, "difference_hundredths": 0, "author_return_percent": null, "favourite_return_percent": null, "author_hit_rate": null, "favourite_hit_rate": null, "picked_favourite_share": null, "by_market": [], "return_over_time": [], "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. 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