{
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 "heading": "Phil Agius: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "3 settled picks by Phil Agius archived before kick-off across 2 matches, 1 Oct 2024 – 5 Oct 2024: won 0 of 3, reconstructed at archived prices.",
 "first_paragraph": {
  "body": "Forecast Record restored 3 settled archived picks by Phil Agius from copies archived before kick-off, across 2 matches between 1 and 5 October 2024. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 0 of 3 settled archived picks. Of the 8 predictions we hold for Phil Agius, 3 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 5 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "key_number": "3",
  "data": "2026-11-07",
  "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot",
  "brand": "Forecast Record"
 },
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  "required_settled": 10,
  "required_dates": 2,
  "live_count": 0,
  "restored_count": 6,
  "of_them_archived": 3
 },
 "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
 "built_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
 "lastmod": "2026-11-08T02:12:33.000Z",
 "content_hash": null,
 "meaning_hash": "a7656c8a8f10ff3568db46563812493210094465ae91bbce5a0c5d5fe005c412",
 "dependency_group": "author:e-5d8008608280fd1ed2964428",
 "release_id": "20261107-195223",
 "markup": [
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 ],
 "exports": [
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   "url": "/authors/phil-agius/index.json",
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  },
  {
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 ],
 "modules": {
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  "api": true,
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 },
 "affiliate_block": {
  "container": true,
  "request_url": "/partnery/moi",
  "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.",
  "page_category": "author"
 },
 "restrictions": {
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 },
 "page_links": {
  "methodology": "/methodology/",
  "right_of_reply": "/right-of-reply/",
  "source_coverage": "/coverage/",
  "corrections_log": "/corrections/",
  "api": "/api/",
  "claim": "/claim/"
 },
 "entity": {
  "id": "e-5d8008608280fd1ed2964428",
  "public_name": "Phil Agius",
  "tracker_number": 2696,
  "status": "active",
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  "verified_creator": false,
  "observation_period": {
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   "until": "2026-10-18"
  },
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  ],
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 },
 "headline_number": {
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   "display_name": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot",
   "window_kind": "90d",
   "window_from": "2026-08-09",
   "window_to": "2026-11-07",
   "amount": null,
   "unit": "percent",
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "no pick in this window has been settled",
   "n_bets": 0,
   "n_events": 0,
   "n_void": null,
   "ci_low": null,
   "ci_high": null,
   "ci_method": "not_estimated",
   "price_source": "market_price",
   "coverage_percent": null,
   "breakdown": [],
   "methodology_version": "2.2",
   "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
   "enough_for_ranking": false,
   "series_key": "market_price",
   "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot"
  },
  "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 0 settled picks across 0 matches",
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  "odds_from_author": null,
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 },
 "metrics": [],
 "history": [],
 "simulation": {
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  "top_ups": [],
  "rule": "Every tracked author starts with 10,000 points and stakes 100 per qualifying pick. This author has 0 settled bets, so the bankroll stands at its starting value."
 },
 "simulations": [],
 "completeness": {
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 },
 "record_counts": {
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 "evidence_items": [
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   "observation_id": "n-5c9094603ae5ecaa65c4e14e",
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   "quote_text": "The latest Luton vs Oxford odds are available on LiveScore Bet",
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    "speaker": "Phil Agius",
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   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
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    "flags": [
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    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
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    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
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    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
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   "observation_id": "n-00229b397cc76eaf733d4e66",
   "url": "/authors/phil-agius/#pick-n-00229b397cc76eaf733d4e66",
   "quote_text": "Back Luton to win 2-1 correct score at 13/2 with LiveScore Bet",
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    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241001025504id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/luton-oxford-predictions-championship-2024093012470118037/",
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    "speaker": "Phil Agius",
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   "published_at": "2024-09-30T12:47:01.000Z",
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    "display_name": "Luton Town v Oxford United",
    "competition_name": "EFL Championship",
    "starts_at": "2024-10-01T18:45:00.000Z",
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    "scoreline": "2-2"
   },
   "market_label": "Correct score",
   "outcome_label": "Luton Town 2-1 Oxford United",
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": "7.5",
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    "closing": "7.7000",
    "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "loss",
   "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000,
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   "archive_snapshot_at": "2024-10-01T02:55:04.000Z",
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   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "added_on": "Added to our record on 18 Oct 2026",
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "Correct score",
    "choice": "Luton Town 2-1 Oxford United",
    "author_odds": "7.5",
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    "period": "match",
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    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "Correct score: Luton Town 2-1 Oxford United at 7.5"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "scoreline": "2-2",
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    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "in_words": "Did not match: the final score was Luton Town 2-2 Oxford United."
   },
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     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Correct score",
     "choice": "Luton Town 2-1 Oxford United",
     "decimal_odds": "7.5",
     "odds_role": "author_price",
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     "status": "confirmed",
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     "result": "loss",
     "result_words": "Lost",
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     "site_simulation": true,
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     "market_label": "Correct score",
     "choice": "Luton Town 2-1 Oxford United",
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     "status": "confirmed",
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   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
   "authorship": {
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    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
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   "quote_text": "Both teams have scored in all six of Leicester's Premier League games.",
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   "source_info": {
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    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
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  {
   "observation_id": "n-6846d86c44ab6e41324598e6",
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   "quote_text": "Leicester are likely to still be missing Patson Daka and Jakub Stolarczyk",
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   "source_info": {
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   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
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    "flags": [
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    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-848eca10cc8c1552d0d187c9",
   "url": "/authors/phil-agius/#pick-n-848eca10cc8c1552d0d187c9",
   "quote_text": "Recommended bet: Bournemouth to win",
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   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241004000454id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/leicester-vs-bournemouth-predictions-cherries-can-extend-foxes-winless-start-2024100214161798141/",
    "display_name": null,
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     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-1b28192eac93059f76bbccb0",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-1b28192eac93059f76bbccb0",
   "quote_text": "Daiki Hashioka and Shandon Baptiste are still sidelined, but Jacob Brown returned from a long-term injury as a substitute on Saturday and Victor Moses could be in line to start after scoring against the Pilgrims.",
   "fragment_from": 1643,
   "fragment_to": 1855,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241001045351id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/amp/luton-oxford-predictions-championship-2024093012470118037/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Phil Agius",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "0c65822630bf088730b691fef643a63d672e2ccf3aa4c616b51efa78769480bf",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:02:47.653Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
   "cause": null,
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": null,
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-09-30T12:47:01.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:02:47.653Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-a9fee3394ca79cd83d7e9970",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-a9fee3394ca79cd83d7e9970",
   "quote_text": "Luton will be checking on the fitness of several players after Teden Mengi and Tahith Chong both went off due to injuries in the loss at Plymouth and then Mads Andersen, who had replaced Mengi, was forced off himself.",
   "fragment_from": 1412,
   "fragment_to": 1629,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241001045351id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/amp/luton-oxford-predictions-championship-2024093012470118037/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Phil Agius",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "0c65822630bf088730b691fef643a63d672e2ccf3aa4c616b51efa78769480bf",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:02:47.653Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
   "cause": null,
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": null,
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-09-30T12:47:01.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:02:47.653Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-6104c4433cae338139987082",
   "url": "/authors/phil-agius/#pick-n-6104c4433cae338139987082",
   "quote_text": "Back Luton to win 2-1 correct score at 13/2 with LiveScore Bet",
   "fragment_from": 3566,
   "fragment_to": 3628,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241001045351id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/amp/luton-oxford-predictions-championship-2024093012470118037/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Phil Agius",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "0c65822630bf088730b691fef643a63d672e2ccf3aa4c616b51efa78769480bf",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": "2024-09-30T12:47:01.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:02:47.653Z",
   "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:04.875Z",
   "statement_class": "priced",
   "status": "too_late",
   "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": {
    "event_id": null,
    "display_name": "Luton Town v Oxford United",
    "competition_name": "EFL Championship",
    "starts_at": "2024-10-01T18:45:00.000Z",
    "url": null,
    "scoreline": "2-2"
   },
   "market_label": "Correct score",
   "outcome_label": "Luton Town 2-1 Oxford United",
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": "7.5",
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": "7.7000",
    "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "loss",
   "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": "ours",
   "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "archive_snapshot_at": "2024-10-01T04:53:51.000Z",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": "2024-09-30T12:47:01.000Z",
    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2024-09-30T12:47:01.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:02:47.653Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": "2024-10-01T04:53:51.000Z",
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": "Added to our record on 9 Oct 2026",
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "Correct score",
    "choice": "Luton Town 2-1 Oxford United",
    "author_odds": "7.5",
    "market_key": "correct_score_market",
    "choice_key": "2-1",
    "period": "match",
    "line": null,
    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "Correct score: Luton Town 2-1 Oxford United at 7.5"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": "loss",
    "scoreline": "2-2",
    "data_status": "measured",
    "cause": null,
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "in_words": "Did not match: the final score was Luton Town 2-2 Oxford United."
   },
   "settlements": [
    {
     "operation_id": "91c03f3667771d138bf0e027831742c5e8335206385b933f7b34b6d29947a06e",
     "series_key": "retro_author_price",
     "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Correct score",
     "choice": "Luton Town 2-1 Oxford United",
     "decimal_odds": "7.5",
     "odds_role": "author_price",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "loss",
     "result_words": "Lost",
     "change_hundredths": -10000,
     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:04.869Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    },
    {
     "operation_id": "e04897aae3c9d75b7b858633f81f98af19cf2381f03057386bbef85b5e53e533",
     "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Correct score",
     "choice": "Luton Town 2-1 Oxford United",
     "decimal_odds": "7.7000",
     "odds_role": "closing_odds",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "loss",
     "result_words": "Lost",
     "change_hundredths": -10000,
     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:04.875Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    }
   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
   "authorship": {
    "material_author": "Phil Agius",
    "publisher": "livescore.com",
    "forecaster": "Phil Agius",
    "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
    "basis": null,
    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
    "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://www.livescore.com/en/news/amp/luton-oxford-predictions-championship-2024093012470118037/",
    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
    "verdict_by": null,
    "verdict_line": null
   },
   "correction": null
  }
 ],
 "excluded_from_feed": {
  "ads": 1,
  "service": 0,
  "ruleset_version": "3"
 },
 "standing": null,
 "retro": {
  "restored_total": 6,
  "of_them_archived_pre_match": 3,
  "found_post_match": 3,
  "of_them_source_reported": 0,
  "live_count": 0,
  "date_count": 5,
  "span_from": "2024-10-01",
  "span_to": "2025-04-18",
  "line_text": "restored history: 6, of which pre-match archive 3",
  "body": "We re-read what this author published before Premier League, Championship and Champions League matches between 1 October 2024 and 18 April 2025 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 6. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 3. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 3. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.",
  "precision": {
   "n": 6,
   "share": "0.1667"
  },
  "series_list": [
   {
    "code_name": "retro_author_price",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
    "n": 5,
    "roi": "-54.0000",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price",
    "n": 0,
    "roi": null,
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": "no restored pick with this price"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "n": 6,
    "roi": "-52.5000",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   }
  ],
  "clv": {
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above"
  },
  "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
  "leagues": [
   "Premier League",
   "Championship",
   "Champions League"
  ],
  "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 0 settled restored picks and forecasts, and the two agree; 6 come from one provider only. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged."
 },
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": null,
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "livescore.com",
   "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241001025504id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/luton-oxford-predictions-championship-2024093012470118037/"
  },
  "observed_from": "2026-10-09",
  "observed_to": "2026-10-18",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
  "series": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
  "restored": true,
  "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
  "headline_part": "archived",
  "settled_picks": 3,
  "matches": 2,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": -30000,
  "staked_hundredths": 30000,
  "return_percent": "-100.00",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2024-10-01",
  "period_to": "2024-10-05",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "retro-1.1",
  "short_history": true,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record restored 3 settled archived picks by Phil Agius from copies archived before kick-off, across 2 matches between 1 and 5 October 2024. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 0 of 3 settled archived picks. Of the 8 predictions we hold for Phil Agius, 3 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 5 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled archived picks",
    "value": "3",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "2",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "−300 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "value": "−100.0%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": null
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [
   "Most of this history was found after the matches. Of the 6 selections in this historical price series, 3 have a pre-match archive copy and 3 were first found after the match.",
   "Reconstructed at archived prices: these picks were restored from copies of the author’s pages that an independent web archive saved before kick-off, at the last pre-match archive prices, bookmaker margin included."
  ],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": null,
   "archived": {
    "part": "archived",
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. These picks were restored from copies an independent web archive saved before kick-off; the line shows how they settled at archived prices.",
    "settled_picks": 3,
    "matches": 2,
    "match_dates": 2,
    "period_from": "2024-10-01",
    "period_to": "2024-10-05",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": -30000,
    "low": {
     "date": "2024-10-05",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -30000,
     "after_picks": 3
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2024-10-01",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -20000,
     "after_picks": 2
    },
    "line_drawn": false,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2024-10-01",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -20000,
      "n": 2,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-10-05",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -30000,
      "n": 3,
      "picks": 1
     }
    ]
   }
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record restored 3 settled archived picks by Phil Agius from copies archived before kick-off, across 2 matches between 1 and 5 October 2024. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 0 of 3 settled archived picks. Of the 8 predictions we hold for Phil Agius, 3 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 5 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/phil-agius/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "retro-1.1"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 8,
   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 0,
   "proven_predictions": 3,
   "proven_checked": 3,
   "proven_measured": 3,
   "proven_dates": 2,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 3,
     "checked": 3,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 3,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 2,
      "net_points_hundredths": -30000,
      "staked_hundredths": 30000,
      "return_percent": "-100.00",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2024-10-01",
      "period_to": "2024-10-05",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 2,
       "return_main_percent": "-100.00",
       "return_other_percent": "-100.00",
       "settled_excluding_void": 2,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -20000,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -20000,
       "period_from": "2024-10-01",
       "period_to": "2024-10-01"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 3,
      "priced": 3
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 3,
      "won": 0,
      "won_percent": "0.0",
      "implied_percent": "25.2",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Correct score",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 2,
        "implied_percent": "13.0"
       },
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "49.5"
       }
      ]
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 5,
     "checked": 3,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 3,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 3,
      "net_points_hundredths": -1500,
      "staked_hundredths": 30000,
      "return_percent": "-5.00",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2024-11-26",
      "period_to": "2025-04-18",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 3,
       "return_main_percent": "-5.00",
       "return_other_percent": "-23.33",
       "settled_excluding_void": 3,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -1500,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -7000,
       "period_from": "2024-11-26",
       "period_to": "2025-04-18"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 3,
      "priced": 3
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 3,
      "won": 1,
      "won_percent": "33.3",
      "implied_percent": "32.4",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "30.9"
       },
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "31.3"
       },
       {
        "market": "Win to nil",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "35.1"
       }
      ]
     }
    }
   ]
  },
  "live_alongside": null,
  "headline_record_ids": [
   "n-00229b397cc76eaf733d4e66",
   "n-6104c4433cae338139987082",
   "n-848eca10cc8c1552d0d187c9"
  ],
  "interval_low": null,
  "interval_high": null,
  "caption": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) · 100 points per pick · 1–5 October 2024 · Calculated · picks settled under reconstruction method 1.1",
  "record_from": "2024-10-01",
  "record_to": "2025-04-18"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
  {
   "record_id": "n-527a4763f1a6cfd5e6b596be",
   "url": "/authors/phil-agius/#pick-n-527a4763f1a6cfd5e6b596be",
   "match": "Bristol City v Sunderland",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-04-18T14:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "EFL Championship",
   "lead_hours": -12935.8,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: draw at 3.3",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "2-1",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": "3.3",
   "settled_price": "3.2400",
   "published_at": "2025-04-16T13:17:27.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T13:48:12.676Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-527a4763f1a6cfd5e6b596be",
    "quote_text": "Back the Draw at 23/10 with LiveScore Bet.",
    "fragment_from": 4237,
    "fragment_to": 4279,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
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     "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250429215047id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/bristol-city-vs-sunderland-predictions-close-contest-expected-at-ashton-gate-2025041613172777558/",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Phil Agius",
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     "bundle_id": "49c0c250f7bb1870ee48908b0a872deb4d0899f61b2c64a50e8221a0c0a21b9b",
     "material_removed": false
    },
    "published_at": "2025-04-16T13:17:27.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:48:12.676Z",
    "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:07.090Z",
    "statement_class": "priced",
    "status": "too_late",
    "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
    "cause_code": null,
    "event": {
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     "display_name": "Bristol City v Sunderland",
     "competition_name": "EFL Championship",
     "starts_at": "2025-04-18T14:00:00.000Z",
     "url": null,
     "scoreline": "2-1"
    },
    "market_label": "1X2, match result",
    "outcome_label": "draw",
    "odds_set": {
     "by_author": "3.3",
     "our_snapshot": null,
     "our_snapshot_at": null,
     "our_snapshot_source": null,
     "closing": "3.2400",
     "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
    "result": "loss",
    "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000,
    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
    "executed_by": "ours",
    "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "withdrawn": false,
    "provenance": "found_post_match",
    "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "dates": {
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     "fragment_basis": "page",
     "source_page_at": "2025-04-16T13:17:27.000Z",
     "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:48:12.676Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [],
     "flag_words": null,
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "source_stated_date",
    "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
    "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "added_on": null,
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "draw",
     "author_odds": "3.3",
     "market_key": "1x2",
     "choice_key": "X",
     "period": "match",
     "line": null,
     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "1X2, match result: draw at 3.3"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
     "result": "loss",
     "scoreline": "2-1",
     "data_status": "measured",
     "cause": null,
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
     "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Bristol City 2-1 Sunderland."
    },
    "settlements": [
     {
      "operation_id": "999d9009118282f8b9a5110cda773eb682c685d9db57df112670ecee68701f5a",
      "series_key": "retro_author_price",
      "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "1X2, match result",
      "choice": "draw",
      "decimal_odds": "3.3",
      "odds_role": "author_price",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
      "status_text": "Executed",
      "result": "loss",
      "result_words": "Lost",
      "change_hundredths": -10000,
      "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:07.085Z",
      "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
      "on_claim_market": true,
      "replaced": false
     },
     {
      "operation_id": "8c4d41f2779b91e4541b1aa7ccea6b886632fc28b8accef16abdd9782a70930c",
      "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm",
      "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "1X2, match result",
      "choice": "draw",
      "decimal_odds": "3.2400",
      "odds_role": "closing_odds",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
      "status_text": "Executed",
      "result": "loss",
      "result_words": "Lost",
      "change_hundredths": -10000,
      "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:07.090Z",
      "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
      "on_claim_market": true,
      "replaced": false
     }
    ],
    "corrections": [],
    "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
    "authorship": {
     "material_author": "Phil Agius",
     "publisher": "livescore.com",
     "forecaster": "Phil Agius",
     "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
     "basis": null,
     "status": "not_named",
     "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
     "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
     "evidence_fragment": null,
     "material_url": "https://www.livescore.com/en/news/bristol-city-vs-sunderland-predictions-close-contest-expected-at-ashton-gate-2025041613172777558/",
     "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
     "verdict_by": null,
     "verdict_line": null
    },
    "correction": null,
    "choice_words": "a draw"
   }
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-01785f8d6b40e331ae16fd2b",
   "url": "/authors/phil-agius/#pick-n-01785f8d6b40e331ae16fd2b",
   "match": "Burnley v Sheffield Wednesday",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-02-21T20:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "EFL Championship",
   "lead_hours": -14273.9,
   "market_code": "win_to_nil",
   "author_said": "To win to nil: Burnley to win to nil at 2.3",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Won",
   "claim_outcome": "Won",
   "final_score": "4-0",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": 18500,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": "2.3",
   "settled_price": "2.8500",
   "published_at": "2025-02-18T14:27:02.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T13:51:06.220Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-01785f8d6b40e331ae16fd2b",
    "quote_text": "Back Burnley to win to nil at 13/10 with LiveScore Bet",
    "fragment_from": 3988,
    "fragment_to": 4042,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "website",
     "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250419172955id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/burnley-sheffield-wednesday-predictions-championship-2025021814270262237/",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Phil Agius",
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     "bundle_id": "9b17c8f543d50cd1ae3f106cc37ed28d374a3e47cc2e074c0f9b24fb267a88e5",
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    },
    "published_at": "2025-02-18T14:27:02.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:51:06.220Z",
    "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:07.124Z",
    "statement_class": "priced",
    "status": "too_late",
    "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
    "cause_code": null,
    "event": {
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     "display_name": "Burnley v Sheffield Wednesday",
     "competition_name": "EFL Championship",
     "starts_at": "2025-02-21T20:00:00.000Z",
     "url": null,
     "scoreline": "4-0"
    },
    "market_label": "To win to nil",
    "outcome_label": "Burnley to win to nil",
    "odds_set": {
     "by_author": "2.3",
     "our_snapshot": null,
     "our_snapshot_at": null,
     "our_snapshot_source": null,
     "closing": "2.8500",
     "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
    "result": "win",
    "simulation_change_hundredths": 18500,
    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
    "executed_by": "ours",
    "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "withdrawn": false,
    "provenance": "found_post_match",
    "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "dates": {
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     "fragment_basis": "page",
     "source_page_at": "2025-02-18T14:27:02.000Z",
     "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:51:06.220Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [],
     "flag_words": null,
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "source_stated_date",
    "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
    "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "added_on": null,
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "To win to nil",
     "choice": "Burnley to win to nil",
     "author_odds": "2.3",
     "market_key": "win_to_nil",
     "choice_key": "1",
     "period": "match",
     "line": null,
     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "To win to nil: Burnley to win to nil at 2.3"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
     "result": "win",
     "scoreline": "4-0",
     "data_status": "measured",
     "cause": null,
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
     "in_words": "Won: the final score was Burnley 4-0 Sheffield Wednesday."
    },
    "settlements": [
     {
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      "series_key": "retro_author_price",
      "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "To win to nil",
      "choice": "Burnley to win to nil",
      "decimal_odds": "2.3",
      "odds_role": "author_price",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
      "status_text": "Executed",
      "result": "win",
      "result_words": "Won",
      "change_hundredths": 13000,
      "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:07.119Z",
      "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
      "on_claim_market": true,
      "replaced": false
     },
     {
      "operation_id": "db9ca5715ee817ced850d43494b4ecf176c7c5295279061f118870e30941fbff",
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      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "To win to nil",
      "choice": "Burnley to win to nil",
      "decimal_odds": "2.8500",
      "odds_role": "closing_odds",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
      "status_text": "Executed",
      "result": "win",
      "result_words": "Won",
      "change_hundredths": 18500,
      "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:07.124Z",
      "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
      "on_claim_market": true,
      "replaced": false
     }
    ],
    "corrections": [],
    "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
    "authorship": {
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     "publisher": "livescore.com",
     "forecaster": "Phil Agius",
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     "basis": null,
     "status": "not_named",
     "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
     "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
     "evidence_fragment": null,
     "material_url": "https://www.livescore.com/en/news/burnley-sheffield-wednesday-predictions-championship-2025021814270262237/",
     "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
     "verdict_by": null,
     "verdict_line": null
    },
    "correction": null,
    "choice_words": "Burnley to win to nil"
   }
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-c615b05601b355fe666cd34a",
   "url": "/authors/phil-agius/#pick-n-c615b05601b355fe666cd34a",
   "match": "FC Barcelona v Stade Brestois",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2024-11-26T20:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "UEFA Champions League",
   "lead_hours": -16361.3,
   "market_code": "total",
   "author_said": "Over/Under 4.5 goals: over 4.5 at 2.95",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "3-0",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": "2.95",
   "settled_price": "3.1950",
   "published_at": "2024-11-24T13:12:44.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T13:20:26.879Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
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   "attribution": null,
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   "price_disputed": null,
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   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-c615b05601b355fe666cd34a",
    "quote_text": "Back over 4.5 goals at 39/20 with LiveScore Bet.",
    "fragment_from": 3594,
    "fragment_to": 3642,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "website",
     "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241202233655id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/barcelona-vs-brest-predictions-barca-can-get-back-on-goal-trail-2024112413124473459/",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Phil Agius",
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    },
    "published_at": "2024-11-24T13:12:44.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:20:26.879Z",
    "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:06.634Z",
    "statement_class": "priced",
    "status": "too_late",
    "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
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    "event": {
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     "display_name": "FC Barcelona v Stade Brestois",
     "competition_name": "UEFA Champions League",
     "starts_at": "2024-11-26T20:00:00.000Z",
     "url": null,
     "scoreline": "3-0"
    },
    "market_label": "Over/Under 4.5 goals",
    "outcome_label": "over 4.5",
    "odds_set": {
     "by_author": "2.95",
     "our_snapshot": null,
     "our_snapshot_at": null,
     "our_snapshot_source": null,
     "closing": "3.1950",
     "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
    "result": "loss",
    "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000,
    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
    "executed_by": "ours",
    "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "withdrawn": false,
    "provenance": "found_post_match",
    "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "dates": {
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     "fragment_basis": "page",
     "source_page_at": "2024-11-24T13:12:44.000Z",
     "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:20:26.879Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [],
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     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "source_stated_date",
    "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
    "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
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    "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
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    "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "dates": {
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     "fragment_basis": "page",
     "source_page_at": "2025-03-04T15:13:14.000Z",
     "detected_at": "2026-10-09T14:09:48.045Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [],
     "flag_words": null,
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "source_stated_date",
    "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
    "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "added_on": null,
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    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "Asian handicap -1",
     "choice": "Fenerbahçe -1.0",
     "author_odds": "2.65",
     "market_key": "handicap_asian",
     "choice_key": "1",
     "period": "match",
     "line": "-1.0",
     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "Asian handicap -1: Fenerbahçe -1.0 at 2.65"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
     "result": "unknown",
     "scoreline": null,
     "data_status": "unknown",
     "cause": "awaiting a final score for this restored pick",
     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "in_words": "Pending: awaiting a final score for this restored pick."
    },
    "settlements": [
     {
      "operation_id": "51dca41f8e6ebb0969a78f7750cc392cd8f61b2117e66d8d605e4c3e97dc1b95",
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      "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "Asian handicap -1",
      "choice": "Fenerbahçe -1.0",
      "decimal_odds": "2.65",
      "odds_role": "author_price",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "skipped",
      "status_text": "Not executed: ",
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      "result_words": "Pending",
      "change_hundredths": null,
      "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:28:02.797Z",
      "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
      "on_claim_market": true,
      "replaced": false
     },
     {
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      "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm",
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      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "Asian handicap -1",
      "choice": "Fenerbahçe -1.0",
      "decimal_odds": "2.1000",
      "odds_role": "closing_odds",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "skipped",
      "status_text": "Not executed: ",
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      "change_hundredths": null,
      "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:28:18.148Z",
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    ],
    "corrections": [],
    "funnel_stage": "prediction",
    "authorship": {
     "material_author": "Phil Agius",
     "publisher": "livescore.com",
     "forecaster": "Phil Agius",
     "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
     "basis": null,
     "status": "not_named",
     "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
     "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
     "evidence_fragment": null,
     "material_url": "https://www.livescore.com/en/news/fenerbahce-vs-rangers-predictions-tough-trip-for-troubled-gers-2025030415131486616/",
     "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
     "verdict_by": null,
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    },
    "correction": null,
    "choice_words": "Fenerbahçe -1.0"
   }
  },
  {
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   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-03-06T17:45:00.000Z",
   "competition": "UEFA Europa League",
   "lead_hours": -13964.4,
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   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
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   "reason": "counted in the restored-history series",
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   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:09:16.286Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
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    "quote_text": "Back Fenerbahce -1 handicap at 33/20 with LiveScore Bet",
    "fragment_from": 3920,
    "fragment_to": 3975,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "website",
     "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250420234949id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/fenerbahce-rangers-predictions-europa-league-2025030415131486616/",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Phil Agius",
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    },
    "market_label": "European handicap -1",
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     "our_snapshot_at": null,
     "our_snapshot_source": null,
     "closing": "2.7000",
     "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
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    "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
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    "provenance": "found_post_match",
    "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
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    },
    "origin": "source_stated_date",
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    "author_claim": {
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     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "European handicap -1: Fenerbahçe -1.0 at 2.65"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
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     "data_status": "unknown",
     "cause": "awaiting a final score for this restored pick",
     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "in_words": "Pending: awaiting a final score for this restored pick."
    },
    "settlements": [
     {
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      "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "European handicap -1",
      "choice": "Fenerbahçe -1.0",
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      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "European handicap -1",
      "choice": "Fenerbahçe -1.0",
      "decimal_odds": "2.7000",
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      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "skipped",
      "status_text": "Not executed: ",
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      "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:28:15.293Z",
      "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
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    ],
    "corrections": [],
    "funnel_stage": "prediction",
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     "status": "not_named",
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     "evidence_fragment": null,
     "material_url": "https://www.livescore.com/en/news/fenerbahce-rangers-predictions-europa-league-2025030415131486616/",
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    },
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    "choice_words": "Fenerbahçe -1.0"
   }
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  "picks": 8,
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  "after_kickoff": 8,
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  "share_2h_plus": 0.0,
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  "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off."
 },
 "baseline": {
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  "rule": "recorded-line-1.0",
  "state": "none",
  "picks": 0,
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   "no_recorded_line": 0,
   "favourite_not_settled": 0
  },
  "staked_hundredths": 0,
  "author_net_hundredths": 0,
  "favourite_net_hundredths": 0,
  "difference_hundredths": 0,
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  "favourite_return_percent": null,
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  "favourite_hit_rate": null,
  "picked_favourite_share": null,
  "by_market": [],
  "return_over_time": [],
  "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out."
 },
 "pagination": {
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   "pending": 0,
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  },
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 "title_tag": "Phil Agius Predictions: Verified Record, Results and Sources",
 "calculator": null,
 "person": {
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   {
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    "medium": "LiveScore",
    "channel": "section pages",
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    "source_info": "livescore",
    "byline": "Phil Agius",
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    "summary": {
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     "predictions": 8,
     "settled_picks": 3,
     "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
     "return_percent": -100.0,
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  "previously": [],
  "trust_tier": "probation"
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 "data_revision": {
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  "updated": "2026-10-19",
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  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "method_version": "retro-1.1",
  "price_rule": "reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
  "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
  "sample": {
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   "void": 0,
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 "number_changes": [
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    "text": "−100.00 points on 1 settled pick across 1 match · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
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   "after": {
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    "text": "−300.00 points on 3 settled picks across 2 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
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   "after": {
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    "text": "−100.00 points on 1 settled pick across 1 match · historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "First headline number for this record: 1 settled pick in the series “historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only”.",
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    "total_check": true,
    "market_list": [
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      "net_points_hundredths": -20000,
      "return_percent": "-100.0",
      "period_from": "2024-10-01",
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      "small_sample": true,
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     },
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      "net_points_hundredths": -10000,
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      "small_sample": true,
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    ],
    "leagues": [
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      "url": "/football/competitions/efl-championship/",
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      "league_markets": [
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        "return_percent": null,
        "period_from": "2024-10-01",
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     },
     {
      "code_name": "Premier League",
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      "url": "/football/competitions/premier-league/",
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      "void": 0,
      "net_points_hundredths": -10000,
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      "league_markets": [
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        "return_percent": null,
        "period_from": "2024-10-05",
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        "small_sample": true,
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     }
    ],
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   }
  ],
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 },
 "author_card": {
  "body": "Record tracked by Forecast Record since 9 October 2026 · 8 predictions · last change 18 October 2026",
  "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/phil-agius/",
  "s": "2026-10-09",
  "prediction_count": 8,
  "refreshed_at": "2026-10-18",
  "html": "<a href=\"https://forecastrecord.com/authors/phil-agius/\">Record tracked by Forecast Record since 9 October 2026 · 8 predictions · last change 18 October 2026</a>"
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