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 "heading": "Pablo Ruiz de Asua: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "1 settled pick by Pablo Ruiz de Asua recorded before kick-off across 1 match, 22 Oct 2026: won 1 of 1 at our recorded market prices.",
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  "body": "Forecast Record recorded 1 settled live pick by Pablo Ruiz de Asua before kick-off across 1 match on 22 October 2026. Won 1 of 1 settled live pick at our recorded market prices. Of the 4 predictions we hold for Pablo Ruiz de Asua, 2 are linked to matches: 2 were recorded by us before kick-off. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
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   },
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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   "correction": null
  },
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   "observation_id": "n-db74a05e5bf4893ea84a5aae",
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   "quote_text": "Mikel Oyarzábal 2 o más tiros a puerta",
   "fragment_from": 3429,
   "fragment_to": 3467,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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   "published_at": "2026-10-21T20:07:38.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-10-22T12:20:58.557Z",
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   },
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    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
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   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "prediction",
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   "correction": null
  },
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   "observation_id": "n-19ebec40219c62fa1d5bb71d",
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   "quote_text": "Retabet\n\n1.97\n\nMikel Oyarzábal 2 o más tiros a puerta",
   "fragment_from": 3414,
   "fragment_to": 3467,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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   "published_at": "2026-10-21T20:07:38.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-10-22T12:20:58.557Z",
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   "statement_class": "priced",
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   "cause_code": "not_supported",
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   "odds_set": {
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   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
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   "withdrawn": false,
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    "fragment_basis": "element",
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    "detected_at": "2026-10-22T12:20:58.557Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "no_match_linked",
   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "prediction",
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   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-365f13bae3b3b09ac987b60f",
   "url": "/authors/pablo-ruiz-de-asua/#pick-n-365f13bae3b3b09ac987b60f",
   "quote_text": "Más de 2,5 goles",
   "fragment_from": 2795,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://www.apuestas-deportivas.es/pronostico/lillestroem-real-sociedad-pronostico-uefa-europa-league-22-10-2026/",
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    "speaker": "Pablo Ruiz de Asua",
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   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "unpriced",
   "status": "ambiguous",
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   "cause_code": "not_checked",
   "event": {
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    "display_name": "Lillestrom — Real Sociedad",
    "competition_name": "UEFA Europa League",
    "starts_at": "2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z",
    "url": "/football/matches/lillestrom-vs-real-sociedad-2026-10-22/",
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   },
   "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
   "outcome_label": "over 2.5",
   "odds_set": {
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   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "recorded_pre_match",
   "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
   "dates": {
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    "fragment_basis": "element",
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    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
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    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
    "choice": "over 2.5",
    "author_odds": null,
    "market_key": "total",
    "choice_key": "over",
    "period": "match",
    "line": "2.5",
    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "Over/Under 2.5 goals: over 2.5"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": "win",
    "scoreline": "0-6",
    "data_status": "measured",
    "cause": null,
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "Won: the final score was Lillestrom 0-6 Real Sociedad."
   },
   "settlements": [
    {
     "operation_id": "5529a8120ba51a84632a48c1472bf7a4116c2e70ff95c78883bd672ce723edac",
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     "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
     "choice": "over 2.5",
     "decimal_odds": null,
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     "stake_hundredths": null,
     "status": "skipped",
     "status_text": "Not executed: ",
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     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    }
   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "prediction",
   "authorship": {
    "material_author": "Pablo Ruiz de Asua",
    "publisher": "apuestas-deportivas.es",
    "forecaster": "Pablo Ruiz de Asua",
    "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
    "basis": null,
    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
    "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://www.apuestas-deportivas.es/pronostico/lillestroem-real-sociedad-pronostico-uefa-europa-league-22-10-2026/",
    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
    "verdict_by": null,
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   },
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-eff95c216eda0a06d4a4d036",
   "url": "/authors/pablo-ruiz-de-asua/#pick-n-eff95c216eda0a06d4a4d036",
   "quote_text": "Retabet\n\n1.51\n\nGana Real Sociedad",
   "fragment_from": 7775,
   "fragment_to": 7808,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "rss",
    "url": "https://www.apuestas-deportivas.es/pronostico/lillestroem-real-sociedad-pronostico-uefa-europa-league-22-10-2026/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Pablo Ruiz de Asua",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
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   },
   "published_at": "2026-10-21T20:07:38.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-10-22T12:20:58.557Z",
   "executed_at": "2026-10-26T02:23:56.973Z",
   "statement_class": "priced",
   "status": "recognised",
   "cause": null,
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": {
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    "display_name": "Lillestrom — Real Sociedad",
    "competition_name": "UEFA Europa League",
    "starts_at": "2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z",
    "url": "/football/matches/lillestrom-vs-real-sociedad-2026-10-22/",
    "scoreline": "0-6",
    "condition": "finished"
   },
   "market_label": "1X2, match result",
   "outcome_label": "Real Sociedad",
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": "1.51",
    "our_snapshot": "1.4444",
    "our_snapshot_at": "2026-10-22T12:19:27.953Z",
    "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot",
    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "win",
   "simulation_change_hundredths": 4444,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": "ours",
   "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot",
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "recorded_pre_match",
   "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
   "dates": {
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    "fragment_basis": "element",
    "source_page_at": "2026-10-21T20:07:38.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-22T12:20:58.557Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "1X2, match result",
    "choice": "Real Sociedad",
    "author_odds": "1.51",
    "market_key": "1x2",
    "choice_key": "2",
    "period": "match",
    "line": null,
    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "1X2, match result: Real Sociedad at 1.51"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": "win",
    "scoreline": "0-6",
    "data_status": "measured",
    "cause": null,
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "Won: the final score was Lillestrom 0-6 Real Sociedad."
   },
   "settlements": [
    {
     "operation_id": "08a300d642fa8537f88b110e63203bd2cf0af5b0205e2a17e592baff95f4fdac",
     "series_key": "author_price",
     "series_label": "At the author's stated price",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "Real Sociedad",
     "decimal_odds": "1.51",
     "odds_role": "author_price",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "win",
     "result_words": "Won",
     "change_hundredths": 5100,
     "executed_at": "2026-10-26T02:23:56.381Z",
     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    },
    {
     "operation_id": "eb300e77584f61bb09a83044a9b527f966870e2ed45b9bab1dced2f0ca84700f",
     "series_key": "market_price",
     "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "Real Sociedad",
     "decimal_odds": "1.4444",
     "odds_role": "market_price",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "win",
     "result_words": "Won",
     "change_hundredths": 4444,
     "executed_at": "2026-10-26T02:23:56.973Z",
     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    }
   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
   "authorship": {
    "material_author": "Pablo Ruiz de Asua",
    "publisher": "apuestas-deportivas.es",
    "forecaster": "Pablo Ruiz de Asua",
    "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
    "basis": null,
    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
    "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://www.apuestas-deportivas.es/pronostico/lillestroem-real-sociedad-pronostico-uefa-europa-league-22-10-2026/",
    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
    "verdict_by": null,
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   },
   "correction": null
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 ],
 "standing": null,
 "retro": null,
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "threshold_percent": "5",
  "rows": [
   {
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "basis_words": "our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off)",
    "basis_short": "Our market price when we first recorded the pick",
    "compared": 1,
    "above": 0,
    "above_share_percent": "0.0",
    "below": 0,
    "within": 1,
    "median_difference_percent": "4.5",
    "not_comparable": 0,
    "disputed": 0,
    "status": "calculated"
   }
  ],
  "examples": [],
  "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way."
 },
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "apuestas-deportivas.es",
   "url": "https://www.apuestas-deportivas.es/pronostico/lillestroem-real-sociedad-pronostico-uefa-europa-league-22-10-2026/"
  },
  "observed_from": "2026-10-22",
  "observed_to": "2026-10-22",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "market_price",
  "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price",
  "restored": false,
  "headline_kind": "live_snapshot",
  "headline_part": "live",
  "settled_picks": 1,
  "matches": 1,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": 4444,
  "staked_hundredths": 10000,
  "return_percent": "44.44",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2026-10-22",
  "period_to": "2026-10-22",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "2.2",
  "short_history": true,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record recorded 1 settled live pick by Pablo Ruiz de Asua before kick-off across 1 match on 22 October 2026. Won 1 of 1 settled live pick at our recorded market prices. Of the 4 predictions we hold for Pablo Ruiz de Asua, 2 are linked to matches: 2 were recorded by us before kick-off. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled live picks",
    "value": "1",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "1",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "+44.44 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "value": "+44.4%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": null
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": {
    "part": "live",
    "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.",
    "settled_picks": 1,
    "matches": 1,
    "match_dates": 1,
    "period_from": "2026-10-22",
    "period_to": "2026-10-22",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": 4444,
    "low": {
     "date": "2026-10-22",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 4444,
     "after_picks": 1
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2026-10-22",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 4444,
     "after_picks": 1
    },
    "line_drawn": false,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2026-10-22",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 4444,
      "n": 1,
      "picks": 1
     }
    ]
   },
   "archived": null
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record recorded 1 settled live pick by Pablo Ruiz de Asua before kick-off across 1 match on 22 October 2026. Won 1 of 1 settled live pick at our recorded market prices. Of the 4 predictions we hold for Pablo Ruiz de Asua, 2 are linked to matches: 2 were recorded by us before kick-off. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/pablo-ruiz-de-asua/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "2.2"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 4,
   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 2,
   "proven_predictions": 2,
   "proven_checked": 2,
   "proven_measured": 1,
   "proven_dates": 1,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 2,
     "checked": 2,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 1,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 1,
      "net_points_hundredths": 4444,
      "staked_hundredths": 10000,
      "return_percent": "44.44",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2026-10-22",
      "period_to": "2026-10-22",
      "method_version": "2.2",
      "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0",
      "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.0",
      "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 1
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "author_price",
       "picks": 1,
       "return_main_percent": "44.44",
       "return_other_percent": "51.00",
       "settled_excluding_void": 1,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 4444,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 5100,
       "period_from": "2026-10-22",
       "period_to": "2026-10-22"
      },
      {
       "price": "Closing price",
       "series_code": "closing_live",
       "picks": 1,
       "return_main_percent": "44.44",
       "return_other_percent": "35.97",
       "settled_excluding_void": 1,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 4444,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 3597,
       "period_from": "2026-10-22",
       "period_to": "2026-10-22"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 2,
      "priced": 1
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 1,
      "won": 1,
      "won_percent": "100.0",
      "implied_percent": "69.2",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "69.2"
       }
      ]
     },
     "reviewed_after": {
      "predictions": 1,
      "right": 1,
      "wrong": 0,
      "other": 0
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    }
   ]
  },
  "live_alongside": null,
  "headline_record_ids": [
   "n-eff95c216eda0a06d4a4d036"
  ],
  "interval_low": null,
  "interval_high": null,
  "caption": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price · 100 points per pick · 22 October 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under method v2.2",
  "record_from": "2026-10-22",
  "record_to": "2026-10-22"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
  {
   "record_id": "n-eff95c216eda0a06d4a4d036",
   "url": "/authors/pablo-ruiz-de-asua/#pick-n-eff95c216eda0a06d4a4d036",
   "match": "Lillestrom v Real Sociedad",
   "match_url": "/football/matches/lillestrom-vs-real-sociedad-2026-10-22/",
   "kickoff": "2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "UEFA Europa League",
   "lead_hours": 6.7,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: Real Sociedad at 1.51",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Won",
   "claim_outcome": "Won",
   "final_score": "0-6",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": 4444,
   "series_code": "market_price",
   "series_short": "odds snapshot",
   "author_price": "1.51",
   "settled_price": "1.4444",
   "published_at": "2026-10-21T20:07:38.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-22T12:20:58.557Z",
   "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
   "record_part": "live",
   "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off",
   "in_headline": true,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": {
    "outcome": "2",
    "price": "1.4444",
    "result": "Won",
    "points_hundredths": 4444,
    "picked_favourite": true
   },
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-eff95c216eda0a06d4a4d036",
    "quote_text": "Retabet\n\n1.51\n\nGana Real Sociedad",
    "fragment_from": 7775,
    "fragment_to": 7808,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "rss",
     "url": "https://www.apuestas-deportivas.es/pronostico/lillestroem-real-sociedad-pronostico-uefa-europa-league-22-10-2026/",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Pablo Ruiz de Asua",
     "authorship": "channel_owner",
     "media_from_ms": null,
     "bundle_id": "8fd8b0a648bd4110501bb3e20bdcd440058453e0d63080de0667832d24a1558c",
     "material_removed": false
    },
    "published_at": "2026-10-21T20:07:38.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-22T12:20:58.557Z",
    "executed_at": "2026-10-26T02:23:56.973Z",
    "statement_class": "priced",
    "status": "recognised",
    "cause": null,
    "cause_code": null,
    "event": {
     "event_id": "s-e61ce87077b5",
     "display_name": "Lillestrom — Real Sociedad",
     "competition_name": "UEFA Europa League",
     "starts_at": "2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z",
     "url": "/football/matches/lillestrom-vs-real-sociedad-2026-10-22/",
     "scoreline": "0-6",
     "condition": "finished"
    },
    "market_label": "1X2, match result",
    "outcome_label": "Real Sociedad",
    "odds_set": {
     "by_author": "1.51",
     "our_snapshot": "1.4444",
     "our_snapshot_at": "2026-10-22T12:19:27.953Z",
     "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot",
     "closing": null,
     "closing_source": null
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
    "result": "win",
    "simulation_change_hundredths": 4444,
    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
    "executed_by": "ours",
    "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot",
    "withdrawn": false,
    "provenance": "recorded_pre_match",
    "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "dates": {
     "fragment_at": "2026-10-21T20:07:38.000Z",
     "fragment_basis": "element",
     "source_page_at": "2026-10-21T20:07:38.000Z",
     "detected_at": "2026-10-22T12:20:58.557Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [],
     "flag_words": null,
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff",
    "origin_detail": null,
    "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "added_on": null,
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "Real Sociedad",
     "author_odds": "1.51",
     "market_key": "1x2",
     "choice_key": "2",
     "period": "match",
     "line": null,
     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "1X2, match result: Real Sociedad at 1.51"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
     "result": "win",
     "scoreline": "0-6",
     "data_status": "measured",
     "cause": null,
     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "in_words": "Won: the final score was Lillestrom 0-6 Real Sociedad."
    },
    "settlements": [
     {
      "operation_id": "08a300d642fa8537f88b110e63203bd2cf0af5b0205e2a17e592baff95f4fdac",
      "series_key": "author_price",
      "series_label": "At the author's stated price",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "1X2, match result",
      "choice": "Real Sociedad",
      "decimal_odds": "1.51",
      "odds_role": "author_price",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
      "status_text": "Executed",
      "result": "win",
      "result_words": "Won",
      "change_hundredths": 5100,
      "executed_at": "2026-10-26T02:23:56.381Z",
      "methodology_version": "2.2",
      "on_claim_market": true,
      "replaced": false
     },
     {
      "operation_id": "eb300e77584f61bb09a83044a9b527f966870e2ed45b9bab1dced2f0ca84700f",
      "series_key": "market_price",
      "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "1X2, match result",
      "choice": "Real Sociedad",
      "decimal_odds": "1.4444",
      "odds_role": "market_price",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
      "status_text": "Executed",
      "result": "win",
      "result_words": "Won",
      "change_hundredths": 4444,
      "executed_at": "2026-10-26T02:23:56.973Z",
      "methodology_version": "2.2",
      "on_claim_market": true,
      "replaced": false
     }
    ],
    "corrections": [],
    "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
    "authorship": {
     "material_author": "Pablo Ruiz de Asua",
     "publisher": "apuestas-deportivas.es",
     "forecaster": "Pablo Ruiz de Asua",
     "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
     "basis": null,
     "status": "not_named",
     "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
     "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
     "evidence_fragment": null,
     "material_url": "https://www.apuestas-deportivas.es/pronostico/lillestroem-real-sociedad-pronostico-uefa-europa-league-22-10-2026/",
     "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
     "verdict_by": null,
     "verdict_line": null
    },
    "correction": null,
    "choice_words": "Real Sociedad to win"
   }
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-365f13bae3b3b09ac987b60f",
   "url": "/authors/pablo-ruiz-de-asua/#pick-n-365f13bae3b3b09ac987b60f",
   "match": "Lillestrom v Real Sociedad",
   "match_url": "/football/matches/lillestrom-vs-real-sociedad-2026-10-22/",
   "kickoff": "2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "UEFA Europa League",
   "lead_hours": 6.7,
   "market_code": "total",
   "author_said": "Over/Under 2.5 goals: over 2.5",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": "Won",
   "final_score": "0-6",
   "reason": "graded against the result: right",
   "reason_code": "not_checked",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2026-10-21T20:07:38.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-22T12:20:58.557Z",
   "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
   "record_part": "live",
   "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-365f13bae3b3b09ac987b60f",
    "quote_text": "Más de 2,5 goles",
    "fragment_from": 2795,
    "fragment_to": 2811,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "rss",
     "url": "https://www.apuestas-deportivas.es/pronostico/lillestroem-real-sociedad-pronostico-uefa-europa-league-22-10-2026/",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Pablo Ruiz de Asua",
     "authorship": "channel_owner",
     "media_from_ms": null,
     "bundle_id": "8fd8b0a648bd4110501bb3e20bdcd440058453e0d63080de0667832d24a1558c",
     "material_removed": false
    },
    "published_at": "2026-10-21T20:07:38.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-22T12:20:58.557Z",
    "executed_at": null,
    "statement_class": "unpriced",
    "status": "ambiguous",
    "cause": "",
    "cause_code": "not_checked",
    "event": {
     "event_id": "s-e61ce87077b5",
     "display_name": "Lillestrom — Real Sociedad",
     "competition_name": "UEFA Europa League",
     "starts_at": "2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z",
     "url": "/football/matches/lillestrom-vs-real-sociedad-2026-10-22/",
     "scoreline": "0-6",
     "condition": "finished"
    },
    "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
    "outcome_label": "over 2.5",
    "odds_set": {
     "by_author": null,
     "our_snapshot": null,
     "our_snapshot_at": null,
     "our_snapshot_source": null,
     "closing": null,
     "closing_source": null
    },
    "stake_hundredths": null,
    "result": "win",
    "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
    "executed_by": null,
    "series_label": null,
    "withdrawn": false,
    "provenance": "recorded_pre_match",
    "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "dates": {
     "fragment_at": "2026-10-21T20:07:38.000Z",
     "fragment_basis": "element",
     "source_page_at": "2026-10-21T20:07:38.000Z",
     "detected_at": "2026-10-22T12:20:58.557Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [],
     "flag_words": null,
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff",
    "origin_detail": null,
    "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "added_on": null,
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
     "choice": "over 2.5",
     "author_odds": null,
     "market_key": "total",
     "choice_key": "over",
     "period": "match",
     "line": "2.5",
     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "Over/Under 2.5 goals: over 2.5"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
     "result": "win",
     "scoreline": "0-6",
     "data_status": "measured",
     "cause": null,
     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "in_words": "Won: the final score was Lillestrom 0-6 Real Sociedad."
    },
    "settlements": [
     {
      "operation_id": "5529a8120ba51a84632a48c1472bf7a4116c2e70ff95c78883bd672ce723edac",
      "series_key": "market_price",
      "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
      "choice": "over 2.5",
      "decimal_odds": null,
      "odds_role": null,
      "stake_hundredths": null,
      "status": "skipped",
      "status_text": "Not executed: ",
      "result": null,
      "result_words": null,
      "change_hundredths": null,
      "executed_at": null,
      "methodology_version": "2.2",
      "on_claim_market": true,
      "replaced": false
     }
    ],
    "corrections": [],
    "funnel_stage": "prediction",
    "authorship": {
     "material_author": "Pablo Ruiz de Asua",
     "publisher": "apuestas-deportivas.es",
     "forecaster": "Pablo Ruiz de Asua",
     "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
     "basis": null,
     "status": "not_named",
     "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
     "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
     "evidence_fragment": null,
     "material_url": "https://www.apuestas-deportivas.es/pronostico/lillestroem-real-sociedad-pronostico-uefa-europa-league-22-10-2026/",
     "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
     "verdict_by": null,
     "verdict_line": null
    },
    "correction": null,
    "choice_words": "over 2.5 (Over/Under 2.5 goals)"
   }
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-db74a05e5bf4893ea84a5aae",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Mikel Oyarzábal 2 o más tiros a puerta",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2026-10-21T20:07:38.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-22T12:20:58.557Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "record_part": "unlinked",
   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-19ebec40219c62fa1d5bb71d",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Retabet\n\n1.97\n\nMikel Oyarzábal 2 o más tiros a puerta",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2026-10-21T20:07:38.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-22T12:20:58.557Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "record_part": "unlinked",
   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  }
 ],
 "lead_time": {
  "contract_version": 1,
  "threshold_hours": 2.0,
  "picks": 2,
  "before_kickoff": 2,
  "after_kickoff": 0,
  "at_least_2h": 2,
  "share_2h_plus": 100.0,
  "median_hours": 6.7,
  "min_hours": 6.7,
  "max_hours": 6.7,
  "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off."
 },
 "baseline": {
  "contract_version": 1,
  "series_code": "market_price",
  "rule": "recorded-line-1.0",
  "state": "settled",
  "picks": 1,
  "settled_picks_all": 1,
  "excluded": {
   "market_without_favourite": 0,
   "no_recorded_line": 0,
   "favourite_not_settled": 0
  },
  "staked_hundredths": 10000,
  "author_net_hundredths": 4444,
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