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 "heading": "Oldbets: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "3 settled picks by Oldbets recorded before kick-off across 3 matches, 18 Oct 2026 – 7 Nov 2026: won 0 of 2 at our recorded market prices.",
 "first_paragraph": {
  "body": "Forecast Record recorded 3 settled live picks by Oldbets before kick-off across 3 matches between 18 October and 7 November 2026. Won 0 of 2 non-void picks at our recorded market prices. Of the 7 predictions we hold for Oldbets, 4 are linked to matches: 4 were recorded by us before kick-off. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "key_number": "3",
  "data": "2026-11-07",
  "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot",
  "brand": "Forecast Record"
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 },
 "data_date": "2026-11-07T18:15:48.448Z",
 "built_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
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 "dependency_group": "author:e-e20de48d0f95b251775a1635",
 "release_id": "20261107-195223",
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 "exports": [
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 ],
 "modules": {
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 },
 "affiliate_block": {
  "container": true,
  "request_url": "/partnery/moi",
  "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.",
  "page_category": "author"
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 "restrictions": {
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 "entity": {
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  "status": "active",
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  "observation_period": {
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 "headline_number": {
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   "ci_high": null,
   "ci_method": "not_estimated",
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   "coverage_percent": "50.00",
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   "methodology_version": "2.2",
   "data_date": "2026-11-07T18:15:48.448Z",
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  "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 3 settled picks across 3 matches",
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   "stake_hundredths": null,
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   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": "2026-10-16T14:29:45.000Z",
    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2026-10-16T14:29:45.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-16T20:09:38.512Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "no_match_linked",
   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  }
 ],
 "standing": null,
 "retro": null,
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "threshold_percent": "5",
  "rows": [
   {
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "basis_words": "our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off)",
    "basis_short": "Our market price when we first recorded the pick",
    "compared": 2,
    "above": 1,
    "above_share_percent": "50.0",
    "below": 0,
    "within": 1,
    "median_difference_percent": "4.0",
    "not_comparable": 0,
    "disputed": 0,
    "status": "calculated"
   }
  ],
  "examples": [
   {
    "url": "/authors/oldbets/#pick-n-fa01d363b747625023f9a3fd",
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "stated": "1.66",
    "market": "1.57",
    "difference_percent": "5.7"
   }
  ],
  "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way."
 },
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "gainblers.com",
   "url": "https://gainblers.com/es/pronosticos/futbol/alemania/1bundesliga/pronostico-paderborn-frankfurt-07-11-2026/"
  },
  "observed_from": "2026-10-16",
  "observed_to": "2026-11-06",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "market_price",
  "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price",
  "restored": false,
  "headline_kind": "live_snapshot",
  "headline_part": "live",
  "settled_picks": 3,
  "matches": 3,
  "void": 1,
  "net_points_hundredths": -20000,
  "staked_hundredths": 20000,
  "return_percent": "-100.00",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2026-10-18",
  "period_to": "2026-11-07",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "2.2",
  "short_history": true,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record recorded 3 settled live picks by Oldbets before kick-off across 3 matches between 18 October and 7 November 2026. Won 0 of 2 non-void picks at our recorded market prices. Of the 7 predictions we hold for Oldbets, 4 are linked to matches: 4 were recorded by us before kick-off. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled live picks",
    "value": "3",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": "1 void"
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "3",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "−200 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "value": "−100.0%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": null
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [
   "This page combines Oldbets across 3 platforms. The record above counts each prediction once, even when the same pick (match, market and selection) appeared on more than one platform; each platform keeps its own total under “Where Oldbets publishes”."
  ],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": {
    "part": "live",
    "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.",
    "settled_picks": 3,
    "matches": 3,
    "match_dates": 3,
    "period_from": "2026-10-18",
    "period_to": "2026-11-07",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": -20000,
    "low": {
     "date": "2026-10-22",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -20000,
     "after_picks": 2
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2026-10-18",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000,
     "after_picks": 1
    },
    "line_drawn": false,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2026-10-18",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000,
      "n": 1,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-22",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -20000,
      "n": 2,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-07",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -20000,
      "n": 3,
      "picks": 1
     }
    ]
   },
   "archived": null
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record recorded 3 settled live picks by Oldbets before kick-off across 3 matches between 18 October and 7 November 2026. Won 0 of 2 non-void picks at our recorded market prices. Of the 7 predictions we hold for Oldbets, 4 are linked to matches: 4 were recorded by us before kick-off. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/oldbets/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "2.2"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 7,
   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 3,
   "proven_predictions": 4,
   "proven_checked": 4,
   "proven_measured": 3,
   "proven_dates": 3,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 4,
     "checked": 4,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 3,
      "void": 1,
      "matches": 3,
      "net_points_hundredths": -20000,
      "staked_hundredths": 20000,
      "return_percent": "-100.00",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2026-10-18",
      "period_to": "2026-11-07",
      "method_version": "2.2",
      "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0",
      "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.0",
      "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 0
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "author_price",
       "picks": 2,
       "return_main_percent": "-100.00",
       "return_other_percent": "-100.00",
       "settled_excluding_void": 1,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -10000,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -10000,
       "period_from": "2026-10-22",
       "period_to": "2026-11-07"
      },
      {
       "price": "Closing price",
       "series_code": "closing_live",
       "picks": 3,
       "return_main_percent": "-100.00",
       "return_other_percent": "-100.00",
       "settled_excluding_void": 2,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -20000,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -20000,
       "period_from": "2026-10-18",
       "period_to": "2026-11-07"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 4,
      "priced": 3
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 2,
      "won": 0,
      "won_percent": "0.0",
      "implied_percent": "61.6",
      "left_out": 1,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 2,
        "implied_percent": "61.6"
       }
      ]
     },
     "reviewed_after": {
      "predictions": 1,
      "right": 1,
      "wrong": 0,
      "other": 0
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    }
   ]
  },
  "live_alongside": null,
  "headline_record_ids": [
   "n-af619b0a3c2c9e524b87bb30",
   "n-f23340f0fee42bf5a2b84a77",
   "n-fa01d363b747625023f9a3fd"
  ],
  "interval_low": null,
  "interval_high": null,
  "caption": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price · 100 points per pick · 18 October – 7 November 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under method v2.2",
  "record_from": "2026-10-16",
  "record_to": "2026-11-07"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
  {
   "record_id": "n-fa01d363b747625023f9a3fd",
   "url": "/authors/oldbets/#pick-n-fa01d363b747625023f9a3fd",
   "match": "SC Paderborn 07 v Eintracht Frankfurt",
   "match_url": "/football/matches/sc-paderborn-07-vs-eintracht-frankfurt-2026-11-07/",
   "kickoff": "2026-11-07T14:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Bundesliga",
   "lead_hours": 43.2,
   "market_code": "draw_no_bet",
   "author_said": "Draw no bet: Eintracht Frankfurt at 1.66",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Void",
   "claim_outcome": "Void",
   "final_score": "2-2",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": 0,
   "series_code": "market_price",
   "series_short": "odds snapshot",
   "author_price": "1.66",
   "settled_price": "1.5700",
   "published_at": "2026-11-05T18:56:40.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-11-05T19:20:47.008Z",
   "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
   "record_part": "live",
   "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off",
   "in_headline": true,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "platform": null,
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-fa01d363b747625023f9a3fd",
    "quote_text": "DNB Frankfurt 1,66",
    "fragment_from": 36,
    "fragment_to": 54,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "website",
     "url": "https://gainblers.com/es/pronosticos/futbol/alemania/1bundesliga/pronostico-paderborn-frankfurt-07-11-2026/",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Oldbets",
     "authorship": "channel_owner",
     "media_from_ms": null,
     "bundle_id": "7fa0e32f6a57fd55dbfef12aec41af2618d245c53b378df982f8cb428e24c1b7",
     "material_removed": false
    },
    "published_at": "2026-11-05T18:56:40.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-11-05T19:20:47.008Z",
    "executed_at": "2026-11-05T19:25:26.094Z",
    "statement_class": "priced",
    "status": "recognised",
    "cause": null,
    "cause_code": null,
    "event": {
     "event_id": "s-9d5a1b79a27f",
     "display_name": "SC Paderborn 07 — Eintracht Frankfurt",
     "competition_name": "Bundesliga",
     "starts_at": "2026-11-07T14:30:00.000Z",
     "url": "/football/matches/sc-paderborn-07-vs-eintracht-frankfurt-2026-11-07/",
     "scoreline": "2-2",
     "condition": "finished"
    },
    "market_label": "Draw no bet",
    "outcome_label": "Eintracht Frankfurt",
    "odds_set": {
     "by_author": "1.66",
     "our_snapshot": "1.5700",
     "our_snapshot_at": "2026-11-05T19:20:08.908Z",
     "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot",
     "closing": null,
     "closing_source": null
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
    "result": "void",
    "simulation_change_hundredths": 0,
    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
    "executed_by": "ours",
    "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot",
    "withdrawn": false,
    "provenance": "recorded_pre_match",
    "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "dates": {
     "fragment_at": "2026-11-05T18:56:40.000Z",
     "fragment_basis": "page",
     "source_page_at": "2026-11-05T18:56:40.000Z",
     "detected_at": "2026-11-05T19:20:47.008Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [],
     "flag_words": null,
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff",
    "origin_detail": null,
    "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "added_on": null,
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "Draw no bet",
     "choice": "Eintracht Frankfurt",
     "author_odds": "1.66",
     "market_key": "draw_no_bet",
     "choice_key": "2",
     "period": "match",
     "line": null,
     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "Draw no bet: Eintracht Frankfurt at 1.66"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
     "result": "void",
     "scoreline": "2-2",
     "data_status": "measured",
     "cause": null,
     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "in_words": "Void: the final score was SC Paderborn 07 2-2 Eintracht Frankfurt."
    },
    "settlements": [
     {
      "operation_id": "c623a7665c96abe6c36485117872412f02a8f13621f8db2ff6871fe112378f81",
      "series_key": "author_price",
      "series_label": "At the author's stated price",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "Draw no bet",
      "choice": "Eintracht Frankfurt",
      "decimal_odds": "1.66",
      "odds_role": "author_price",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
      "status_text": "Executed",
      "result": "void",
      "result_words": "Void",
      "change_hundredths": 0,
      "executed_at": "2026-11-05T19:25:14.780Z",
      "methodology_version": "2.2",
      "on_claim_market": true,
      "replaced": false
     },
     {
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      "series_key": "market_price",
      "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "Draw no bet",
      "choice": "Eintracht Frankfurt",
      "decimal_odds": "1.5700",
      "odds_role": "market_price",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
      "status_text": "Executed",
      "result": "void",
      "result_words": "Void",
      "change_hundredths": 0,
      "executed_at": "2026-11-05T19:25:26.094Z",
      "methodology_version": "2.2",
      "on_claim_market": true,
      "replaced": false
     }
    ],
    "corrections": [],
    "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
    "authorship": {
     "material_author": "Oldbets",
     "publisher": "Gainblers",
     "forecaster": "Oldbets",
     "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
     "basis": null,
     "status": "not_named",
     "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
     "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
     "evidence_fragment": null,
     "material_url": "https://gainblers.com/es/pronosticos/futbol/alemania/1bundesliga/pronostico-paderborn-frankfurt-07-11-2026/",
     "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
     "verdict_by": null,
     "verdict_line": null
    },
    "correction": null,
    "choice_words": "Eintracht Frankfurt (Draw no bet)"
   }
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-f23340f0fee42bf5a2b84a77",
   "url": "/authors/oldbets/#pick-n-f23340f0fee42bf5a2b84a77",
   "match": "TSG Hoffenheim v Olympique Lyonnais",
   "match_url": "/football/matches/tsg-hoffenheim-vs-olympique-lyonnais-2026-10-22/",
   "kickoff": "2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "UEFA Europa League",
   "lead_hours": 54.7,
   "market_code": "both_teams_score",
   "author_said": "Both teams to score: yes at 1.5",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "3-0",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "market_price",
   "series_short": "odds snapshot",
   "author_price": "1.5",
   "settled_price": "1.4665",
   "published_at": null,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-20T12:19:38.946Z",
   "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
   "record_part": "live",
   "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off",
   "in_headline": true,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "platform": null,
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-f23340f0fee42bf5a2b84a77",
    "quote_text": "Pronóstico Hoffenheim vs Lyon | BTTS Sí a 1.50",
    "fragment_from": 0,
    "fragment_to": 46,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "website",
     "url": "https://gainblers.com/es/pronosticos/futbol/europa/europa-league/pronostico-hoffenheim-lyon-22-10-2026/",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Oldbets",
     "authorship": "channel_owner",
     "media_from_ms": null,
     "bundle_id": "694fcab210345479c5fe0f3255518809e09af7856389088ff2e17526e9673aa2",
     "material_removed": false
    },
    "published_at": null,
    "detected_at": "2026-10-20T12:19:38.946Z",
    "executed_at": "2026-10-22T00:47:05.624Z",
    "statement_class": "priced",
    "status": "recognised",
    "cause": null,
    "cause_code": null,
    "event": {
     "event_id": "s-fb9f2443b067",
     "display_name": "TSG Hoffenheim — Olympique Lyonnais",
     "competition_name": "UEFA Europa League",
     "starts_at": "2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z",
     "url": "/football/matches/tsg-hoffenheim-vs-olympique-lyonnais-2026-10-22/",
     "scoreline": "3-0",
     "condition": "finished"
    },
    "market_label": "Both teams to score",
    "outcome_label": "yes",
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