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 "heading": "Nuno Gonçalves: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "Verified record: 24 settled picks by Nuno Gonçalves recorded before kick-off across 20 matches, 11 Oct 2026 – 7 Nov 2026.",
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  "body": "Forecast Record recorded 24 settled live picks by Nuno Gonçalves before kick-off across 20 matches between 11 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −27.3% on the total staked. Of the 228 predictions we hold for Nuno Gonçalves, 91 are linked to matches: 91 were recorded by us before kick-off. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "key_number": "−27.3%",
  "data": "2026-11-07",
  "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot",
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 "data_date": "2026-11-07T17:59:45.219Z",
 "built_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
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 "modules": {
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  "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.",
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 "entity": {
  "id": "e-73a0b71b7a75e26cc0d5bcbc",
  "public_name": "Nuno Gonçalves",
  "tracker_number": 3063,
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  "observation_period": {
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   "window_to": "2026-11-07",
   "amount": "-27.3046",
   "unit": "percent",
   "data_status": "calculated",
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   "n_bets": 24,
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   "ci_low": "-66.2986",
   "ci_high": "13.7586",
   "ci_method": "cluster_bootstrap",
   "price_source": "market_price",
   "coverage_percent": "95.83",
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  "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 24 settled picks across 20 matches",
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   {
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    "bankroll_hundredths": 1046919,
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    "at": "2026-10-28T22:08:46.622Z",
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   {
    "at": "2026-11-01T19:16:07.273Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 1010469,
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    "bankroll_hundredths": 1000469,
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  ],
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  "rule": "When the balance falls below 100 points and no bets are open, 10000 points are added; the remaining balance is kept. While bets are open we wait for settlement.",
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   {
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  ],
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   },
   {
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  ],
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-9bcd23d4498a581bccd3bde3",
   "quote_text": "Em 4 dessas 7 partidas da Juventus verificou-se o mercado de \"ambas marcam\".",
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   "fragment_to": 9819,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "flags": [
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    ],
    "flag_words": "The source states no publication date.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "no_match_linked",
   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
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   "settlements": [],
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-019953c6208c5406c5a71b59",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-019953c6208c5406c5a71b59",
   "quote_text": "A Juventus marcou em 6 das 7 deslocações já realizadas.",
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   "source_info": {
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    "flag_words": "The source states no publication date.",
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  {
   "observation_id": "n-c6356a7a28fd80907a31942a",
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   "quote_text": "A Juventus chega de 2 vitórias consecutivas, e em jogos exigentes, como diante do Nápoles e AZ",
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   "stake_hundredths": null,
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   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-6e86f984729cb24c7cfe76c8",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-6e86f984729cb24c7cfe76c8",
   "quote_text": "A Fiorentina, em 7 jogos em casa, apenas falhou o golo, curiosamente, diante do Frosinone.",
   "fragment_from": 9489,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "no_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source states no publication date.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "no_match_linked",
   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
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   },
   "settlements": [],
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-ea0577b1645b552dd074a9ff",
   "url": "/authors/nuno-goncalves/picks/13/#pick-n-ea0577b1645b552dd074a9ff",
   "quote_text": "O nosso modelo de previsões dá 22.35% de hipóteses ⭐ para uma aposta na vitória de Como 1907 vs Inter de Milão com uma odd de 3.7 na Bwin.",
   "fragment_from": 3086,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://www.sportytrader.pt/prognosticos/inter-milao-como-calcio-385823/",
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   "statement_class": "priced",
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   "cause_code": "ambiguous",
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   "withdrawn": false,
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    "flag_words": "The source states no publication date.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "no_match_linked",
   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
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    "result": null,
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    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
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   },
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-fb10c61f373a453c00ad4d06",
   "url": "/authors/nuno-goncalves/picks/13/#pick-n-fb10c61f373a453c00ad4d06",
   "quote_text": "A probabilidade segundo a Sportytrader ⭐ para o prognóstico empate entre Inter de Milão vs Como 1907 é de 26.12% com uma odd de 4.1 na Luckia.",
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://www.sportytrader.pt/prognosticos/inter-milao-como-calcio-385823/",
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   },
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    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
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     "no_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source states no publication date.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "no_match_linked",
   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-bf620d80e0cb5e6d7ed563cb",
   "url": "/authors/nuno-goncalves/picks/13/#pick-n-bf620d80e0cb5e6d7ed563cb",
   "quote_text": "O nosso prognóstico aponta para um duelo com vitória ou empate do Inter, num jogo com mais de 2.5 golos.",
   "fragment_from": 1816,
   "fragment_to": 1920,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.sportytrader.pt/prognosticos/inter-milao-como-calcio-385823/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Nuno Gonçalves",
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   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-11-06T17:03:54.600Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "unpriced",
   "status": "ambiguous",
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   "cause_code": "ambiguous",
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   "odds_set": {
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   },
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   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
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    "detected_at": "2026-11-06T17:03:54.600Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "no_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source states no publication date.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "no_match_linked",
   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
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    "result": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
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   "funnel_stage": "prediction",
   "authorship": null,
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-7571ddc6cf1d7b06739c318a",
   "url": "/authors/nuno-goncalves/picks/13/#pick-n-7571ddc6cf1d7b06739c318a",
   "quote_text": "O nosso prognóstico aponta para um duelo com vitória ou empate do Inter, num jogo com mais de 2.5 golos.",
   "fragment_from": 1816,
   "fragment_to": 1920,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.sportytrader.pt/prognosticos/inter-milao-como-calcio-385823/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Nuno Gonçalves",
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    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-11-06T17:03:54.600Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "unpriced",
   "status": "ambiguous",
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   "cause_code": "ambiguous",
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   },
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   "dates": {
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    "detected_at": "2026-11-06T17:03:54.600Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
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    ],
    "flag_words": "The source states no publication date.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "no_match_linked",
   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
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   "funnel_stage": "prediction",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-cd2f6d6e6e206d36cf62e955",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-cd2f6d6e6e206d36cf62e955",
   "quote_text": "Betclic oferece-lhe um bónus fantástico neste momento! Pode apostar neste cartaz da Liga Portugal",
   "fragment_from": 10889,
   "fragment_to": 10986,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.sportytrader.pt/prognosticos/estoril-maritimo-385758/",
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   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-11-06T15:39:58.861Z",
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   },
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    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
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    ],
    "flag_words": "The source states no publication date.",
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   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "no_match_linked",
   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-6eb93558554d9f30680f6bc8",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-6eb93558554d9f30680f6bc8",
   "quote_text": "Antecipamos um confronto marcado pela entrega emocional, com ambos os conjuntos a tentarem superar as suas próprias limitações, o que poderá resultar num jogo algo partido",
   "fragment_from": 10187,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.sportytrader.pt/prognosticos/estoril-maritimo-385758/",
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   },
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   },
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   "dates": {
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    "detected_at": "2026-11-06T15:39:58.861Z",
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    ],
    "flag_words": "The source states no publication date.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "no_match_linked",
   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
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    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-6b04082f5529e87a8fb3912b",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-6b04082f5529e87a8fb3912b",
   "quote_text": "50€ oferecidos para apostar em Estoril - Marítimo!",
   "fragment_from": 9879,
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   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://www.sportytrader.pt/prognosticos/estoril-maritimo-385758/",
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    ],
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   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "no_match_linked",
   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
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    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
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   },
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-a115b03edef594792b9cb6cf",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-a115b03edef594792b9cb6cf",
   "quote_text": "Antecipamos um confronto marcado pela entrega emocional, com ambos os conjuntos a tentarem superar as suas próprias limitações",
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   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://www.sportytrader.pt/prognosticos/estoril-maritimo-385758/",
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   },
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   "detected_at": "2026-11-06T15:39:58.861Z",
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   },
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    "flags": [
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    ],
    "flag_words": "The source states no publication date.",
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   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "no_match_linked",
   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
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   },
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-e403428e806d991460e0e54d",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-e403428e806d991460e0e54d",
   "quote_text": "Os últimos confrontos entre Estoril e Marítimo em estatísticas",
   "fragment_from": 6782,
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   "source_info": {
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   "observation_id": "n-c76f30143cf6def5ea68ecc3",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-c76f30143cf6def5ea68ecc3",
   "quote_text": "Após a goleada sofrida em Guimarães (5-0) e o desaire caseiro frente ao Santa Clara (0-2)",
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  {
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-5a46fcf9e94c3a39f078b71b",
   "quote_text": "Os \"canarinhos\" atravessam uma fase conturbada após o despedimento de Vasco Matos",
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   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-c93c5a0b6f0769999eeb7979",
   "url": "/authors/nuno-goncalves/picks/12/#pick-n-c93c5a0b6f0769999eeb7979",
   "quote_text": "As duas equipas marcam\n\n1.62",
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   "author_claim": {
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
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   "quote_text": "teima em não formar um coletivo à altura das suas individualidades.",
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-0e5c0c39a1cb5b6f919362db",
   "quote_text": "250€ oferecidos para apostar em Chaves - Penafiel!",
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   "quote_text": "O mercado de \"ambas marcam\" tem sido a imagem de marca nas deslocações do Penafiel",
   "fragment_from": 9068,
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   "quote_text": "O Desportivo de Chaves faturou em todos os jogos oficiais disputados no Estádio Municipal de Chaves.",
   "fragment_from": 8876,
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   "quote_text": "Os pontos chave do prognóstico Chaves - Penafiel",
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   "quote_text": "O nosso modelo de previsões dá 45.02% de hipóteses ⭐ para uma aposta na vitória de Penafiel vs Chaves com uma odd de 2.8 na Betano.",
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  {
   "observation_id": "n-06987bfb475c6518576504f7",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-06987bfb475c6518576504f7",
   "quote_text": "O algoritmo Sportytrader ⭐ calcula uma probabilidade de 27.67% para o prognóstico vitória do Chaves contra o Penafiel com uma odd de 2.47 na Betano.",
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-b2c80369d251222eed3ce5ab",
   "quote_text": "Mesmo o triunfo suado frente ao Vizela, na 8.ª jornada, não trouxe a estabilidade necessária",
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    "closing": null,
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   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": null,
    "detected_at": "2026-11-05T14:09:36.812Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
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     "no_date"
    ],
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    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "no_match_linked",
   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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   "correction": null
  }
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 "excluded_from_feed": {
  "ads": 2,
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  "ruleset_version": "3"
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    "n_bets": 4,
    "n_events": null,
    "amount": null,
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "ci_level": null,
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    "rationale": "4 different matches in a row with every counted pick correct, first to last within 28 days; matches kicking off at the same time count as one group. The run ended on Estoril v Moreirense. Data: live record. Term: a dated fact.",
    "provenance": "live",
    "rules_version": "catalog-1",
    "methodology_version": "catalog-1",
    "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
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    "anchor_id": "standing-s-01-all-event",
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    "embed": "<a href=\"https://forecastrecord.com/authors/nuno-goncalves/#title-correct-run\" rel=\"nofollow\"><img src=\"https://forecastrecord.com/b/e-73a0b71b7a75e26cc0d5bcbc/s-01-all-event-m-light.svg\" alt=\"Nuno Gonçalves · 4 matches in a row, every pick correct · 24 Oct–25 Oct 2026 · Tracked by Forecast Record\" width=\"868\" height=\"28\" loading=\"lazy\"></a>",
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    "window_words": "On show until 22 Feb 2027",
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     {
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      "evidence_price": null,
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      "nid": "n-b0affb6002979e1025ba8eb2",
      "data": "2026-10-24",
      "match": "SC Farense v Penafiel",
      "said_text": "Both teams to score: yes at 1.71",
      "outcome_label": "right",
      "evidence_price": null,
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      "url": "/authors/nuno-goncalves/picks/6/#pick-n-b0affb6002979e1025ba8eb2"
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     {
      "nid": "n-0cebeef0a5485957d2d77ebc",
      "data": "2026-10-25",
      "match": "Felgueiras 1932 v Lusitania Lourosa",
      "said_text": "Both teams to score: yes at 1.78",
      "outcome_label": "right",
      "evidence_price": null,
      "comparison": null,
      "url": "/authors/nuno-goncalves/picks/7/#pick-n-0cebeef0a5485957d2d77ebc"
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     "contract_version": 1,
     "kind": "streak",
     "priced": 0,
     "unpriced": 4,
     "probability": null,
     "one_in": null,
     "words": "No recorded prices for these picks, so the chance cannot be measured."
    },
    "embed_anchor": "title-correct-run"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "C-02",
    "display_name": "Only one right of 18 tipsters and sources · Away win · 21 Oct 2026",
    "received_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
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    "n_bets": 1,
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    "amount": null,
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    "fact": "Only one right of 18 tipsters and sources · Away win · Lille v Galatasaray · 21 Oct 2026",
    "rationale": "Away win called correctly; 17 other tipsters and sources on this match, 0 right (15 named home win, 2 named draw). Data: live record. Term: a dated fact.",
    "provenance": "live",
    "rules_version": "catalog-1",
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    "window_words": "On show until 19 Jan 2027",
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    "title_tier": "dated_record",
    "status": "active",
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    "published_at": "2026-10-22",
    "visible_until": "2027-01-19",
    "badge_label": "Only right of 18 · 21 Oct",
    "scope_words": null,
    "title_id": "zk-fe0f17f5833239beb950",
    "evidence_items": [
     {
      "nid": "n-28d10cdcbb408dc72bbb7a86",
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      "evidence_price": 2.75,
      "comparison": "17 other tipsters and sources on this match, 0 right (15 named home win, 2 named draw)",
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     "card_url": "/b/e-73a0b71b7a75e26cc0d5bcbc/c-02-all-event-card.svg"
    },
    "profile_anchor": "title-fe0f17f58332",
    "chance": {
     "contract_version": 1,
     "kind": "single",
     "priced": 1,
     "unpriced": 0,
     "hits": 1,
     "probability": 0.322581,
     "one_in": 3,
     "log10": -0.49,
     "words": "1 in 3",
     "rule": "market probability (1/price) of this one pick",
     "note": "market prices include the bookmaker margin, so the chance is slightly overstated — a cautious figure"
    },
    "embed_anchor": "title-lone-correct-call"
   }
  ],
  "publication_mode": "top20",
  "empty_reason": null,
  "rules_version": "catalog-1",
  "insufficient": [],
  "badges_on_page": 0,
  "header_titles": [
   {
    "title_id": "zk-96cfecbfb699d21a843f",
    "code_name": "S-01",
    "title_tier": "dated_record",
    "badge_label": "4 right in a row · 25 Oct",
    "body": "4 matches in a row, every pick correct · 24 Oct–25 Oct 2026",
    "tier": null,
    "provenance": "live",
    "anchor_id": "title-96cfecbfb699",
    "event_at": "2026-10-25",
    "url": "/titles/s-01-correct-run/#zk-96cfecbfb699d21a843f"
   },
   {
    "title_id": "zk-fe0f17f5833239beb950",
    "code_name": "C-02",
    "title_tier": "dated_record",
    "badge_label": "Only right of 18 · 21 Oct",
    "body": "Only one right of 18 tipsters and sources · Away win · Lille v Galatasaray · 21 Oct 2026",
    "tier": null,
    "provenance": "live",
    "anchor_id": "title-fe0f17f58332",
    "event_at": "2026-10-21",
    "url": "/titles/c-02-lone-correct-call/#zk-fe0f17f5833239beb950"
   }
  ],
  "record_origin": [],
  "recent_record": [
   {
    "code_name": "S-01",
    "body": "4 matches in a row, every pick correct · 24 Oct–25 Oct 2026",
    "event_at": "2026-10-25",
    "url": null,
    "provenance": "live",
    "anchor_id": "title-96cfecbfb699"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "C-02",
    "body": "Only one right of 18 tipsters and sources · Away win · Lille v Galatasaray · 21 Oct 2026",
    "event_at": "2026-10-21",
    "url": null,
    "provenance": "live",
    "anchor_id": "title-fe0f17f58332"
   }
  ],
  "record_details": [],
  "history": [
   {
    "code_name": "S-01",
    "body": "4 matches in a row, every pick correct · 13 Oct–15 Oct 2026 · removed 26 Oct 2026",
    "event_at": "2026-10-26",
    "status": "corrected",
    "cause": "recomputed after a correction to the record",
    "provenance": "live"
   }
  ]
 },
 "retro": null,
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "threshold_percent": "5",
  "rows": [
   {
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "basis_words": "our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off)",
    "basis_short": "Our market price when we first recorded the pick",
    "compared": 24,
    "above": 0,
    "above_share_percent": "0.0",
    "below": 5,
    "within": 19,
    "median_difference_percent": "-3.2",
    "not_comparable": 0,
    "disputed": 0,
    "status": "calculated"
   }
  ],
  "examples": [
   {
    "url": "/authors/nuno-goncalves/picks/7/#pick-n-9d404da313579fe569711474",
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "stated": "3.20",
    "market": "3.50",
    "difference_percent": "-8.6"
   },
   {
    "url": "/authors/nuno-goncalves/picks/10/#pick-n-a6fc471a272598330ebbd2e2",
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "stated": "1.66",
    "market": "1.78",
    "difference_percent": "-6.7"
   }
  ],
  "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way."
 },
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "sportytrader.pt",
   "url": "https://www.sportytrader.pt/prognosticos/fiorentina-juventus-386070/"
  },
  "observed_from": "2026-10-11",
  "observed_to": "2026-11-06",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "market_price",
  "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price",
  "restored": false,
  "headline_kind": "live_snapshot",
  "headline_part": "live",
  "settled_picks": 24,
  "matches": 20,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": -65531,
  "staked_hundredths": 240000,
  "return_percent": "-27.30",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2026-10-11",
  "period_to": "2026-11-07",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "2.2",
  "short_history": true,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record recorded 24 settled live picks by Nuno Gonçalves before kick-off across 20 matches between 11 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −27.3% on the total staked. Of the 228 predictions we hold for Nuno Gonçalves, 91 are linked to matches: 91 were recorded by us before kick-off. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled live picks",
    "value": "24",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "20",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "−655.31 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "value": "−27.3%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": "95% interval −66.3% to +13.8%"
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [
   {
    "date": "2026-10-11",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 7576,
    "n": 1
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-13",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -2424,
    "n": 2
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-16",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 4719,
    "n": 3
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-18",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 9719,
    "n": 4
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-21",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 36919,
    "n": 6
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-22",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 12519,
    "n": 10
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-25",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 2519,
    "n": 11
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-27",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -7481,
    "n": 12
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-28",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10881,
    "n": 14
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-29",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -5731,
    "n": 15
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-01",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -9531,
    "n": 17
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-02",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -19531,
    "n": 18
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-03",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -39531,
    "n": 20
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-05",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -69531,
    "n": 23
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-07",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -65531,
    "n": 24
   }
  ],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": {
    "part": "live",
    "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.",
    "settled_picks": 24,
    "matches": 20,
    "match_dates": 15,
    "period_from": "2026-10-11",
    "period_to": "2026-11-07",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": -65531,
    "low": {
     "date": "2026-11-05",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -69531,
     "after_picks": 23
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2026-10-21",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 36919,
     "after_picks": 6
    },
    "line_drawn": true,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2026-10-11",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 7576,
      "n": 1,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-13",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -2424,
      "n": 2,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-16",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 4719,
      "n": 3,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-18",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 9719,
      "n": 4,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-21",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 36919,
      "n": 6,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-22",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 12519,
      "n": 10,
      "picks": 4
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-25",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 2519,
      "n": 11,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-27",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -7481,
      "n": 12,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-28",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10881,
      "n": 14,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-29",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -5731,
      "n": 15,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-01",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -9531,
      "n": 17,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-02",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -19531,
      "n": 18,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-03",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -39531,
      "n": 20,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-05",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -69531,
      "n": 23,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-07",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -65531,
      "n": 24,
      "picks": 1
     }
    ]
   },
   "archived": null
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record recorded 24 settled live picks by Nuno Gonçalves before kick-off across 20 matches between 11 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −27.3% on the total staked. Of the 228 predictions we hold for Nuno Gonçalves, 91 are linked to matches: 91 were recorded by us before kick-off. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/nuno-goncalves/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "2.2"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 228,
   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 137,
   "proven_predictions": 91,
   "proven_checked": 84,
   "proven_measured": 25,
   "proven_dates": 22,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 91,
     "checked": 84,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 24,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 20,
      "net_points_hundredths": -65531,
      "staked_hundredths": 240000,
      "return_percent": "-27.30",
      "interval_low": "-66.30",
      "interval_high": "13.76",
      "interval_note": null,
      "period_from": "2026-10-11",
      "period_to": "2026-11-07",
      "method_version": "2.2",
      "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0",
      "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.0",
      "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 4
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "author_price",
       "picks": 23,
       "return_main_percent": "-30.23",
       "return_other_percent": "-32.52",
       "settled_excluding_void": 23,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -69531,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -74800,
       "period_from": "2026-10-11",
       "period_to": "2026-11-05"
      },
      {
       "price": "Closing price",
       "series_code": "closing_live",
       "picks": 17,
       "return_main_percent": "-6.55",
       "return_other_percent": "-9.00",
       "settled_excluding_void": 17,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -11131,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -15294,
       "period_from": "2026-10-11",
       "period_to": "2026-11-07"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 1,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": 0.0,
      "outcome_checked": 1,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": 0.0,
      "baseline_matches": 1,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 1,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": 0.0,
      "favourite_hits": 1,
      "favourite_rate": 100.0,
      "price_basis": "our pre-match snapshot",
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": [
       "Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to this score forecast.",
       "0 of 1 score forecast named the exact score.",
       "The result implied by the named score was right in 0 of 1 match; the market favourite was right in 1 of the same match.",
       "The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest price in our own odds snapshot taken before kick-off.",
       "The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win)."
      ]
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 84,
      "priced": 24
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 24,
      "won": 10,
      "won_percent": "41.7",
      "implied_percent": "54.9",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 6,
        "picks": 10,
        "implied_percent": "59.8"
       },
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 8,
        "implied_percent": "41.7"
       },
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 3,
        "picks": 5,
        "implied_percent": "64.3"
       },
       {
        "market": "Team goals",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "64.0"
       }
      ]
     },
     "reviewed_after": {
      "predictions": 33,
      "right": 21,
      "wrong": 11,
      "other": 1
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    }
   ]
  },
  "live_alongside": null,
  "headline_record_ids": [
   "n-147b7b6d68cc6f9d39f9fee5",
   "n-155a1dc418ba6c344793e81e",
   "n-2520d0943fead15336e3ec85",
   "n-28d10cdcbb408dc72bbb7a86",
   "n-2f130c71f1f28eeb0c28c95b",
   "n-3dd0a74ce9e98eaf7ef74be0",
   "n-3e9eb25fef6775ef32ecd542",
   "n-4833c5e476c0f7e6e3f1cc3b",
   "n-4e7004dabd8854e00eb56b1f",
   "n-6d42f91570242830edf54849",
   "n-71878fada68f948a57a194fd",
   "n-75ccacd82934daeeb80ffd54",
   "n-88be9a27116d3856706d8148",
   "n-9d404da313579fe569711474",
   "n-a21b1253ca862b6979608301",
   "n-a6fc471a272598330ebbd2e2",
   "n-ad080acb6310117f269aad18",
   "n-af0012ec654ac1a132e08ae2",
   "n-c1116f6f8d120de649459aca",
   "n-c2db46d2bf31fdf89d930012",
   "n-d3d679757ecb10ee89bcfa25",
   "n-da3580a501aa2762cbd83535",
   "n-e6616852c54ad9b1bb91e9e0",
   "n-fc9259dfd8f51610382432b7"
  ],
  "interval_low": "-66.30",
  "interval_high": "13.76",
  "caption": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price · 100 points per pick · 11 October – 7 November 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under method v2.2",
  "record_from": "2026-10-11",
  "record_to": "2026-11-07"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
  {
   "record_id": "n-88be9a27116d3856706d8148",
   "url": "/authors/nuno-goncalves/picks/12/#pick-n-88be9a27116d3856706d8148",
   "match": "Borussia Dortmund v SV 07 Elversberg",
   "match_url": "/football/matches/borussia-dortmund-vs-sv-07-elversberg-2026-11-07/",
   "kickoff": "2026-11-07T14:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Bundesliga",
   "lead_hours": 47.8,
   "market_code": "total",
   "author_said": "Over/Under 4.5 goals: under 4.5",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Won",
   "claim_outcome": "Won",
   "final_score": "2-1",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": 4000,
   "series_code": "market_price",
   "series_short": "odds snapshot",
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": "1.4000",
   "published_at": null,
   "recorded_at": "2026-11-05T14:39:36.149Z",
   "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
   "record_part": "live",
   "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off",
   "in_headline": true,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": {
    "outcome": "under",
    "price": "1.4000",
    "result": "Won",
    "points_hundredths": 4000,
    "picked_favourite": true
   },
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-88be9a27116d3856706d8148",
    "quote_text": "resultando numa vitória ou empate, da equipa da casa, com menos de 4,5 golos.",
    "fragment_from": 2004,
    "fragment_to": 2081,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "website",
     "url": "https://www.sportytrader.pt/prognosticos/borussia-dortmund-spvgg-elversberg-07-385673/",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Nuno Gonçalves",
     "authorship": "channel_owner",
     "media_from_ms": null,
     "bundle_id": "f0247efa5d1f0029ea8c9870ec168e3700865b1f3ba46d642f0dbd74401464a3",
     "material_removed": false
    },
    "published_at": null,
    "detected_at": "2026-11-05T14:39:36.149Z",
    "executed_at": "2026-11-05T14:41:35.520Z",
    "statement_class": "unpriced",
    "status": "recognised",
    "cause": null,
    "cause_code": null,
    "event": {
     "event_id": "s-f4889eb820c4",
     "display_name": "Borussia Dortmund — SV 07 Elversberg",
     "competition_name": "Bundesliga",
     "starts_at": "2026-11-07T14:30:00.000Z",
     "url": "/football/matches/borussia-dortmund-vs-sv-07-elversberg-2026-11-07/",
     "scoreline": "2-1",
     "condition": "finished"
    },
    "market_label": "Over/Under 4.5 goals",
    "outcome_label": "under 4.5",
    "odds_set": {
     "by_author": null,
     "our_snapshot": "1.4000",
     "our_snapshot_at": "2026-11-05T14:39:10.368Z",
     "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot",
     "closing": null,
     "closing_source": null
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
    "result": "win",
    "simulation_change_hundredths": 4000,
    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
    "executed_by": "ours",
    "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot",
    "withdrawn": false,
    "provenance": "recorded_pre_match",
    "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "dates": {
     "fragment_at": null,
     "fragment_basis": "no",
     "source_page_at": null,
     "detected_at": "2026-11-05T14:39:36.149Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [
      "no_date"
     ],
     "flag_words": "The source states no publication date.",
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff",
    "origin_detail": null,
    "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "added_on": null,
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "Over/Under 4.5 goals",
     "choice": "under 4.5",
     "author_odds": null,
     "market_key": "total",
     "choice_key": "under",
     "period": "match",
     "line": "4.5",
     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "Over/Under 4.5 goals: under 4.5"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
     "result": "win",
     "scoreline": "2-1",
     "data_status": "measured",
     "cause": null,
     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "in_words": "Won: the final score was Borussia Dortmund 2-1 SV 07 Elversberg."
    },
    "settlements": [
     {
      "operation_id": "1e9337b887d8c24744da8cb6e8a4b56a4e8df613c27691ea16a07cc0452031dd",
      "series_key": "market_price",
      "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "Over/Under 4.5 goals",
      "choice": "under 4.5",
      "decimal_odds": "1.4000",
      "odds_role": "market_price",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
      "status_text": "Executed",
      "result": "win",
      "result_words": "Won",
      "change_hundredths": 4000,
      "executed_at": "2026-11-05T14:41:35.520Z",
      "methodology_version": "2.2",
      "on_claim_market": true,
      "replaced": false
     }
    ],
    "corrections": [],
    "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
    "authorship": {
     "material_author": "Nuno Gonçalves",
     "publisher": "SportyTrader PT",
     "forecaster": "Nuno Gonçalves",
     "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
     "basis": null,
     "status": "not_named",
     "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
     "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
     "evidence_fragment": null,
     "material_url": "https://www.sportytrader.pt/prognosticos/borussia-dortmund-spvgg-elversberg-07-385673/",
     "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
     "verdict_by": null,
     "verdict_line": null
    },
    "correction": null,
    "choice_words": "under 4.5 (Over/Under 4.5 goals)"
   }
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-5cd65435b1e8b574b509b2e3",
   "url": "/authors/nuno-goncalves/picks/12/#pick-n-5cd65435b1e8b574b509b2e3",
   "match": "Chaves v Penafiel",
   "match_url": "/football/matches/chaves-vs-penafiel-2026-11-07/",
   "kickoff": "2026-11-07T14:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Portugal Segunda Liga",
   "lead_hours": 47.8,
   "market_code": "both_teams_score",
   "author_said": "Both teams to score: yes at 1.78",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Won",
   "claim_outcome": "Won",
   "final_score": "2-3",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": 7800,
   "series_code": "author_price",
   "series_short": "author's odds",
   "author_price": "1.78",
   "settled_price": "1.78",
   "published_at": null,
   "recorded_at": "2026-11-05T14:09:36.812Z",
   "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
   "record_part": "live",
   "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-5cd65435b1e8b574b509b2e3",
    "quote_text": "As duas equipas marcam\n\n1.78",
    "fragment_from": 10270,
    "fragment_to": 10298,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "website",
     "url": "https://www.sportytrader.pt/prognosticos/chaves-penafiel-385391/",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Nuno Gonçalves",
     "authorship": "channel_owner",
     "media_from_ms": null,
     "bundle_id": "2b481577d33a7d01f88d0e70afa2083adfc9e640f59b09cf6359fb9a853cc6b4",
     "material_removed": false
    },
    "published_at": null,
    "detected_at": "2026-11-05T14:09:36.812Z",
    "executed_at": "2026-11-07T09:18:25.528Z",
    "statement_class": "priced",
    "status": "recognised",
    "cause": null,
    "cause_code": null,
    "event": {
     "event_id": "s-41b9adde28f3",
     "display_name": "Chaves — Penafiel",
     "competition_name": "Portugal Segunda Liga",
     "starts_at": "2026-11-07T14:00:00.000Z",
     "url": "/football/matches/chaves-vs-penafiel-2026-11-07/",
     "scoreline": "2-3",
     "condition": "finished"
    },
    "market_label": "Both teams to score",
    "outcome_label": "yes",
    "odds_set": {
     "by_author": "1.78",
     "our_snapshot": null,
     "our_snapshot_at": null,
     "our_snapshot_source": null,
     "closing": null,
     "closing_source": null
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
    "result": "win",
    "simulation_change_hundredths": 7800,
    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
    "executed_by": "ours",
    "series_label": "At the author's stated price",
    "withdrawn": false,
    "provenance": "recorded_pre_match",
    "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "dates": {
     "fragment_at": null,
     "fragment_basis": "no",
     "source_page_at": null,
     "detected_at": "2026-11-05T14:09:36.812Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [
      "no_date"
     ],
     "flag_words": "The source states no publication date.",
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff",
    "origin_detail": null,
    "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "added_on": null,
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "Both teams to score",
     "choice": "yes",
     "author_odds": "1.78",
     "market_key": "both_teams_score",
     "choice_key": "yes",
     "period": "match",
     "line": null,
     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "Both teams to score: yes at 1.78"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
     "result": "win",
     "scoreline": "2-3",
     "data_status": "measured",
     "cause": null,
     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "in_words": "Won: the final score was Chaves 2-3 Penafiel."
    },
    "settlements": [
     {
      "operation_id": "15ccbaaf11fd8eab663163644d6c8e46e2a5c890fcfb65f8e1ffc406877ffc54",
      "series_key": "author_price",
      "series_label": "At the author's stated price",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "Both teams to score",
      "choice": "yes",
      "decimal_odds": "1.78",
      "odds_role": "author_price",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
      "status_text": "Executed",
      "result": "win",
      "result_words": "Won",
      "change_hundredths": 7800,
      "executed_at": "2026-11-07T09:18:25.528Z",
      "methodology_version": "2.2",
      "on_claim_market": true,
      "replaced": false
     },
     {
      "operation_id": "2413971a08ad077f6dd3b4e2202a4412a10dc80495d9db484a65e8a06962cf3f",
      "series_key": "market_price",
      "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "Both teams to score",
      "choice": "yes",
      "decimal_odds": null,
      "odds_role": null,
      "stake_hundredths": null,
      "status": "skipped",
      "status_text": "Not executed: ",
      "result": null,
      "result_words": null,
      "change_hundredths": null,
      "executed_at": null,
      "methodology_version": "2.2",
      "on_claim_market": true,
      "replaced": false
     }
    ],
    "corrections": [],
    "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
    "authorship": {
     "material_author": "Nuno Gonçalves",
     "publisher": "SportyTrader PT",
     "forecaster": "Nuno Gonçalves",
     "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
     "basis": null,
     "status": "not_named",
     "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
     "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
     "evidence_fragment": null,
     "material_url": "https://www.sportytrader.pt/prognosticos/chaves-penafiel-385391/",
     "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
     "verdict_by": null,
     "verdict_line": null
    },
    "correction": null,
    "choice_words": "yes (Both teams to score)"
   }
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   "quote": "Peter Christiansen para marcar a qualquer altura\n\nOdd\n1.91",
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   "quote": "O nosso modelo de previsões dá 25.64% de hipóteses ⭐ para uma aposta na vitória de Sabah Futbol Klubu vs Viking IF com uma odd de 6.1 na Betano.",
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   "quote": "A probabilidade segundo a Sportytrader ⭐ para o prognóstico empate entre Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr FC é de 23.49% com uma odd de 6.1 na Betano.",
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   "quote": "O prognóstico :\n\nMais de 2.5 golos\n\n1.66",
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   "outcome": "Excluded",
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   "quote": "O nosso modelo de previsões dá 40.32% de hipóteses ⭐ para uma aposta na vitória de Athletic Bilbao vs Levante com uma odd de 2.15 na Betano.",
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   "outcome": "Excluded",
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   "reason_code": "not_supported",
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   "quote": "A probabilidade segundo a Sportytrader ⭐ para o prognóstico empate entre Levante vs Athletic Bilbao é de 24.39% com uma odd de 3.45 na Luckia.",
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   "quote": "Prognósticos alternativos para o Como 1907 - Manchester United\n\nComo 1907 vence\n\nOdd\n2.30",
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   "quote": "A probabilidade segundo a Sportytrader ⭐ para o prognóstico empate entre Como 1907 vs Manchester United é de 40.9% com uma odd de 3.65 na Luckia.",
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   "quote": "O prognóstico Como-Manchester United: Como empate anula.\n\nO prognóstico :\n\nComo empate anula\n\n1.55",
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   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
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   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Al-Ittihad empate anula\n\n1.50",
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   "recorded_at": "2026-10-19T06:09:52.255Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
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   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "O prognóstico Al-Ettifaq-Al-Ittihad: Al-Ittihad empate anula.",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
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  "favourite_return_percent": -16.83,
  "author_hit_rate": 50.0,
  "favourite_hit_rate": 50.0,
  "picked_favourite_share": 81.2,
  "by_market": [
   {
    "market_code": "both_teams_score",
    "picks": 8,
    "staked_hundredths": 80000,
    "author_net_hundredths": 17669,
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    "author_hits": 6,
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    "picked_favourite": 8,
    "author_return_percent": 22.09,
    "favourite_return_percent": 22.09
   },
   {
    "market_code": "1x2",
    "picks": 6,
    "staked_hundredths": 60000,
    "author_net_hundredths": -29000,
    "favourite_net_hundredths": -38600,
    "author_hits": 1,
    "favourite_hits": 1,
    "picked_favourite": 3,
    "author_return_percent": -48.33,
    "favourite_return_percent": -64.33
   },
   {
    "market_code": "total",
    "picks": 2,
    "staked_hundredths": 20000,
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    "author_hits": 1,
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    "picked_favourite": 2,
    "author_return_percent": -30.0,
    "favourite_return_percent": -30.0
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  "return_over_time": [
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-11T14:15:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 7576,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 7576
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   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": -2424,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 18976
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   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-16T19:00:00.000Z",
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    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 26119
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   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-18T15:15:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 9719,
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   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-21T16:45:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 30719,
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   {
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    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 20719,
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   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-25T15:30:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 10719,
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   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-28T19:45:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 17319,
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   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-29T19:45:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 22469,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 12869
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   {
    "kickoff": "2026-11-01T16:15:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 28669,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 19069
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   {
    "kickoff": "2026-11-02T17:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 18669,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 9069
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   {
    "kickoff": "2026-11-03T20:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 8669,
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   {
    "kickoff": "2026-11-05T17:45:00.000Z",
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   {
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   {
    "kickoff": "2026-11-05T17:45:00.000Z",
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   {
    "kickoff": "2026-11-07T14:30:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": -17331,
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  ],
  "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out."
 },
 "pagination": {
  "per_page": 20,
  "total": 228,
  "pages": 13,
  "page_urls": [
   "/authors/nuno-goncalves/",
   "/authors/nuno-goncalves/picks/2/",
   "/authors/nuno-goncalves/picks/3/",
   "/authors/nuno-goncalves/picks/4/",
   "/authors/nuno-goncalves/picks/5/",
   "/authors/nuno-goncalves/picks/6/",
   "/authors/nuno-goncalves/picks/7/",
   "/authors/nuno-goncalves/picks/8/",
   "/authors/nuno-goncalves/picks/9/",
   "/authors/nuno-goncalves/picks/10/",
   "/authors/nuno-goncalves/picks/11/",
   "/authors/nuno-goncalves/picks/12/",
   "/authors/nuno-goncalves/picks/13/"
  ],
  "groups": {
   "settled": 32,
   "pending": 4,
   "excluded": 192
  },
  "continuation": "by_time",
  "page": 1,
  "first": 1,
  "last": 20,
  "author_url": "/authors/nuno-goncalves/",
  "current": true
 },
 "title_tag": "Nuno Gonçalves Predictions: This Week's Picks & Verified Record",
 "calculator": null,
 "person": {
  "person_id": "o-73a0b71b7a75e26cc0d5bcbc",
  "type_code": "individual",
  "name_shown": "Nuno Gonçalves",
  "main_entity": "e-73a0b71b7a75e26cc0d5bcbc",
  "identity": {
   "status": "not_verified",
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   "when": null,
   "source_list": []
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  "platform_list": [
   {
    "entity_ref": "e-73a0b71b7a75e26cc0d5bcbc",
    "medium": "SportyTrader PT",
    "channel": "section pages",
    "domain": "sportytrader.pt",
    "source_info": "sportytrader-pt",
    "byline": "Nuno Gonçalves",
    "url": "/sources/sportytrader-pt/",
    "summary": {
     "statements": 926,
     "predictions": 228,
     "settled_picks": 24,
     "headline_kind": "live_snapshot",
     "return_percent": -27.3,
     "headline_part": "live",
     "period_from": "2026-10-11",
     "period_to": "2026-11-06"
    }
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  "previously": [],
  "trust_tier": "probation"
 },
 "data_revision": {
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  "updated": "2026-11-07",
  "current_release": "2026-11-07.2",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "method_version": "2.2",
  "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
  "series_code": "market_price",
  "sample": {
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   "matches": 20,
   "void": 0,
   "period_from": "2026-10-11",
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  "changes_url": "#changes",
  "corrections_url": "/corrections/"
 },
 "number_changes": [
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   "url": "/authors/nuno-goncalves/",
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    "composition_hash": "3857de3d0ec6bfc17527624b01adb27de756900b0ed9775047f49e3e254d9f72",
    "text": "−27.06% on 22 settled picks across 18 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-11-07.2",
    "return_percent": "-27.30",
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    "composition_hash": "dc878428de745670c9c3f749d894e7197b093656fef70b9a8a8ea30b743ef063",
    "text": "−27.30% on 24 settled picks across 20 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture); also 1 new result.",
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   "url": "/authors/nuno-goncalves/",
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    "composition_hash": "34a4c50ffbb979f9eb4ad627d038dba495e63804148ffed145ea8c91d0baa224",
    "text": "−15.54% on 19 settled picks across 15 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
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    "return_percent": "-27.06",
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    "composition_hash": "3857de3d0ec6bfc17527624b01adb27de756900b0ed9775047f49e3e254d9f72",
    "text": "−27.06% on 22 settled picks across 18 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 3 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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    "composition_hash": "559b7e15ea180488da80eaadfcb6b3c61e0310980d8b5ad368f966121c0b941a",
    "text": "−5.61% on 17 settled picks across 14 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
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    "return_percent": "-15.54",
    "settled_picks": 19,
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    "composition_hash": "34a4c50ffbb979f9eb4ad627d038dba495e63804148ffed145ea8c91d0baa224",
    "text": "−15.54% on 19 settled picks across 15 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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   "url": "/authors/nuno-goncalves/",
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    "composition_hash": "9278049c40c6f1de4c4ffdb622c9279d3277c3b98ef57fac8090aeef2900e158",
    "text": "+3.05% on 14 settled picks across 11 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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   "after": {
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    "return_percent": "0.29",
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    "text": "+0.29% on 16 settled picks across 13 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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   "reason": "Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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   "at": "2026-10-30T08:26:41.528Z",
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   "url": "/authors/nuno-goncalves/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
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    "composition_hash": "fcfe1d73fa322f396085f6b15c598314d82ee9f7439bdc7f837d7cabd9b190a4",
    "text": "−0.68% on 13 settled picks across 10 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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   "after": {
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    "text": "+3.05% on 14 settled picks across 11 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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   "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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   "url": "/authors/nuno-goncalves/",
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    "series_code": "market_price",
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    "composition_hash": "67c9ca5d4acf06ac86b925a534640c2542940cfdba91e0f14c53f2e64c8a5867",
    "text": "−6.23% on 12 settled picks across 9 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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   "after": {
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    "return_percent": "-0.68",
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    "composition_hash": "fcfe1d73fa322f396085f6b15c598314d82ee9f7439bdc7f837d7cabd9b190a4",
    "text": "−0.68% on 13 settled picks across 10 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous data version.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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  {
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   "at": "2026-10-28T01:24:12.367Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-28.1",
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   "url": "/authors/nuno-goncalves/",
   "category": "new_results",
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   "before": {
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    "composition_hash": "66c35e367e681c40ada0962098e42b1d68ef5c128cf90a550879fea5ee390c61",
    "text": "+2.29% on 11 settled picks across 8 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
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    "return_percent": "-6.23",
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    "series_code": "market_price",
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    "composition_hash": "67c9ca5d4acf06ac86b925a534640c2542940cfdba91e0f14c53f2e64c8a5867",
    "text": "−6.23% on 12 settled picks across 9 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous data version.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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  },
  {
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   "at": "2026-10-27T07:47:02.386Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-27.1",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-26.1",
   "url": "/authors/nuno-goncalves/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
   "category_words": "Coverage extended",
   "before": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-23.1",
    "return_percent": "25.02",
    "settled_picks": 9,
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    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "0da29111a55cb827ca603d818736df50856186b320cdbaf5b120ddf8bdf9a4f2",
    "text": "+225.19 points on 9 settled picks across 6 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
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    "return_percent": "2.29",
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    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "66c35e367e681c40ada0962098e42b1d68ef5c128cf90a550879fea5ee390c61",
    "text": "+2.29% on 11 settled picks across 8 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture); also 1 new result.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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  {
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    "text": "+325.19 points on 8 settled picks across 6 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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    "text": "+225.19 points on 9 settled picks across 6 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
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   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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    "text": "+469.19 points on 5 settled picks across 4 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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    "return_percent": "40.65",
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    "text": "+325.19 points on 8 settled picks across 6 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
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   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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  {
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    "return_percent": "93.84",
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    "text": "+469.19 points on 5 settled picks across 4 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
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   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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  {
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    "return_percent": "101.80",
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    "composition_hash": "4583aaa923d48eac53750654323d4a45f6a6e590ab130afb505ba1b37b31c721",
    "text": "+407.19 points on 4 settled picks across 4 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous data version.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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  {
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   "data_version": "2026-10-18.8",
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   "url": "/authors/nuno-goncalves/",
   "category": "new_results",
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    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
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    "composition_hash": "277937fd18ad067f26caaaba1284affbc1b58efbebfd280f757afefe6c991af3",
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   },
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    "return_percent": "65.73",
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    "composition_hash": "ae5323c67d28d3cd145d5e6d9acecea67aa107614fe7433e5eb71acf82d7dd3a",
    "text": "+197.19 points on 3 settled picks across 3 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
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   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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  {
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   "url": "/authors/nuno-goncalves/",
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    "composition_hash": "b029409302d7bc5561ea0fbd9f0cdaf323f07baf4ec49a65270595f0d8c7f46e",
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   },
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    "composition_hash": "277937fd18ad067f26caaaba1284affbc1b58efbebfd280f757afefe6c991af3",
    "text": "+147.19 points on 2 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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  {
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   "at": "2026-10-11T20:14:51.236Z",
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   "url": "/authors/nuno-goncalves/",
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    "composition_hash": "b029409302d7bc5561ea0fbd9f0cdaf323f07baf4ec49a65270595f0d8c7f46e",
    "text": "+75.76 points on 1 settled pick across 1 match · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
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   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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 ],
 "current_predictions": {
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  "on_date": "2026-11-07T19:52",
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    "match": "Valencia v Real Madrid",
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    "kickoff": "2026-11-07T20:00:00.000Z",
    "competition": "LaLiga",
    "author_said": "Match result and over/under 2.5 goals: Real Madrid to win and over 2.5 goals at 1.65",
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    "match": "Valencia v Real Madrid",
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    "kickoff": "2026-11-07T20:00:00.000Z",
    "competition": "LaLiga",
    "author_said": "Over/Under 2.5 goals: over 2.5",
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    "recorded_at": "2026-11-05T20:09:54.147Z",
    "platform": null
   },
   {
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    "match": "SC Farense v Benfica B",
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    "kickoff": "2026-11-08T14:00:00.000Z",
    "competition": "Portugal Segunda Liga",
    "author_said": "Both teams to score: yes at 1.58",
    "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "recorded_at": "2026-11-06T14:11:37.987Z",
    "platform": null
   },
   {
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    "url": "/authors/nuno-goncalves/picks/13/#pick-n-7c49e8bece91a6b45cb0c8c7",
    "match": "Fiorentina v Juventus",
    "match_url": "/football/matches/fiorentina-vs-juventus-2026-11-08/",
    "kickoff": "2026-11-08T19:45:00.000Z",
    "competition": "Serie A",
    "author_said": "Both teams to score: yes at 1.65",
    "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
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 },
 "counts_by_slice": {
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    "leagues": [
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      "period_from": "2026-10-13",
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       {
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        "period_from": "2026-10-21",
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        "period_from": "2026-11-03",
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     },
     {
      "code_name": "UEFA Europa League",
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        "period_from": "2026-10-22",
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       },
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        "period_from": "2026-10-22",
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       },
       {
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        "period_from": "2026-11-05",
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     {
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      "net_points_hundredths": 1750,
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      "period_from": "2026-10-28",
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      "league_markets": [
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        "period_from": "2026-10-28",
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      ]
     },
     {
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      "small_sample": true,
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      "league_markets": [
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        "small_sample": true,
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      ]
     },
     {
      "code_name": "Ligue 1",
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      "settled_picks": 2,
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      "void": 0,
      "net_points_hundredths": 11200,
      "return_percent": "56.0",
      "period_from": "2026-10-18",
      "period_to": "2026-11-01",
      "small_sample": true,
      "average_odds": "1.53",
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