{
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 "heading": "Nick Hennion: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "3 settled picks by Nick Hennion recorded before kick-off across 3 matches, 6 Nov 2026 – 7 Nov 2026: won 1 of 3 at our recorded market prices.",
 "first_paragraph": {
  "body": "Forecast Record recorded 3 settled live picks by Nick Hennion before kick-off across 3 matches between 6 and 7 November 2026. Won 1 of 3 settled live picks at our recorded market prices. Of the 87 predictions we hold for Nick Hennion, 21 are linked to matches: 9 were recorded by us before kick-off and 12 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
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  "data": "2026-11-07",
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 "data_date": "2026-11-07T17:52:43.734Z",
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 "entity": {
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   "odds_set": {
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    "our_snapshot_at": null,
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    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
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   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": "2026-10-26T17:18:43.000Z",
    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2026-10-26T17:18:43.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-29T15:48:33.248Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "no_match_linked",
   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-10460cee9edc3bf301c3bbe2",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-10460cee9edc3bf301c3bbe2",
   "quote_text": "Ricky Pearsall is finished for the season while Mike Evans missed a trip to Atlanta.",
   "fragment_from": 1698,
   "fragment_to": 1782,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nfl/brian-thomas-jr-trade-destinations-bm16/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Nick Hennion",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
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    "bundle_id": "3c939060d09f3054cfc80ce7baae0026e83c14a3bb57e34470937383053c31ae",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": "2026-10-28T21:08:21.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-10-28T21:37:58.444Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
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   "odds_set": {
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    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": "2026-10-28T21:08:21.000Z",
    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2026-10-28T21:08:21.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-28T21:37:58.444Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "no_match_linked",
   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-45ae3bc1cb27e6eb230d34d1",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-45ae3bc1cb27e6eb230d34d1",
   "quote_text": "Davante Adams sustained an injury that will sideline him for nine more weeks maximum.",
   "fragment_from": 992,
   "fragment_to": 1077,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nfl/brian-thomas-jr-trade-destinations-bm16/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Nick Hennion",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "3c939060d09f3054cfc80ce7baae0026e83c14a3bb57e34470937383053c31ae",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": "2026-10-28T21:08:21.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-10-28T21:37:58.444Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
   "cause": null,
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   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": null,
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": "2026-10-28T21:08:21.000Z",
    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2026-10-28T21:08:21.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-28T21:37:58.444Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "no_match_linked",
   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-e72dc08f0285c8c0c06eb197",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-e72dc08f0285c8c0c06eb197",
   "quote_text": "As the NFL trade deadline approaches, one of the key questions is whether the Jaguars trade receiver",
   "fragment_from": 223,
   "fragment_to": 323,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nfl/brian-thomas-jr-trade-destinations-bm16/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Nick Hennion",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "3c939060d09f3054cfc80ce7baae0026e83c14a3bb57e34470937383053c31ae",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": "2026-10-28T21:08:21.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-10-28T21:37:58.444Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
   "cause": null,
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   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": null,
    "our_snapshot": null,
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    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
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   "executed_by": null,
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": "2026-10-28T21:08:21.000Z",
    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2026-10-28T21:08:21.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-28T21:37:58.444Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "no_match_linked",
   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-4224bdec49ab4ca31c949564",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-4224bdec49ab4ca31c949564",
   "quote_text": "Isiah Pacheco remains on injured reserve as the deadline approaches.",
   "fragment_from": 1522,
   "fragment_to": 1590,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nfl/tony-pollard-trade-destinations-bm16/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Nick Hennion",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "a5bceb57c3932fb9cf11e38fb032929e2ee1472ca8eda429eb9937cb90d295b9",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": "2026-10-28T19:55:31.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-10-28T20:18:03.831Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
   "cause": null,
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": null,
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": "2026-10-28T19:55:31.000Z",
    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2026-10-28T19:55:31.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-28T20:18:03.831Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "no_match_linked",
   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  }
 ],
 "excluded_from_feed": {
  "ads": 41,
  "service": 0,
  "ruleset_version": "3"
 },
 "standing": null,
 "retro": {
  "restored_total": 2,
  "of_them_archived_pre_match": 0,
  "found_post_match": 2,
  "of_them_source_reported": 0,
  "live_count": 3,
  "date_count": 2,
  "span_from": "2024-09-17",
  "span_to": "2024-09-18",
  "line_text": "restored history: 2, of which pre-match archive 0",
  "body": "We re-read what this author published before Champions League matches between 17 September 2024 and 18 September 2024 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 2. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 0. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 2. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.",
  "precision": {
   "n": 2,
   "share": "0.5"
  },
  "series_list": [
   {
    "code_name": "retro_author_price",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
    "n": 2,
    "roi": "10.0000",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price",
    "n": 0,
    "roi": null,
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": "no restored pick with this price"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "n": 2,
    "roi": "16.5000",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   }
  ],
  "clv": {
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above"
  },
  "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
  "leagues": [
   "Champions League"
  ],
  "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 0 settled restored picks and forecasts, and the two agree; 2 come from one provider only. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged."
 },
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "threshold_percent": "5",
  "rows": [
   {
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "basis_words": "our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off)",
    "basis_short": "Our market price when we first recorded the pick",
    "compared": 3,
    "above": 0,
    "above_share_percent": "0.0",
    "below": 1,
    "within": 2,
    "median_difference_percent": "-4.8",
    "not_comparable": 0,
    "disputed": 0,
    "status": "calculated"
   }
  ],
  "examples": [
   {
    "url": "/authors/nick-hennion/picks/5/#pick-n-34592e714153b3f9df68b9bf",
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "stated": "2.50",
    "market": "2.67",
    "difference_percent": "-6.5"
   }
  ],
  "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way."
 },
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "sports.betmgm.com",
   "url": "https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nfl/anytime-td-scorer-predictions-picks-week-9-bm16/"
  },
  "observed_from": "2026-10-09",
  "observed_to": "2026-11-07",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "market_price",
  "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price",
  "restored": false,
  "headline_kind": "live_snapshot",
  "headline_part": "live",
  "settled_picks": 3,
  "matches": 3,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": -3250,
  "staked_hundredths": 30000,
  "return_percent": "-10.83",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2026-11-06",
  "period_to": "2026-11-07",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "2.2",
  "short_history": true,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record recorded 3 settled live picks by Nick Hennion before kick-off across 3 matches between 6 and 7 November 2026. Won 1 of 3 settled live picks at our recorded market prices. Of the 87 predictions we hold for Nick Hennion, 21 are linked to matches: 9 were recorded by us before kick-off and 12 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled live picks",
    "value": "3",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "3",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "−32.50 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "value": "−10.8%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": null
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [
   "Most of this history was found after the matches. Of the 2 selections in this historical price series, 0 have a pre-match archive copy and 2 were first found after the match."
  ],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": {
    "part": "live",
    "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.",
    "settled_picks": 3,
    "matches": 3,
    "match_dates": 2,
    "period_from": "2026-11-06",
    "period_to": "2026-11-07",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": -3250,
    "low": {
     "date": "2026-11-06",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000,
     "after_picks": 1
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2026-11-07",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -3250,
     "after_picks": 3
    },
    "line_drawn": false,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2026-11-06",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000,
      "n": 1,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-07",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -3250,
      "n": 3,
      "picks": 2
     }
    ]
   },
   "archived": null
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record recorded 3 settled live picks by Nick Hennion before kick-off across 3 matches between 6 and 7 November 2026. Won 1 of 3 settled live picks at our recorded market prices. Of the 87 predictions we hold for Nick Hennion, 21 are linked to matches: 9 were recorded by us before kick-off and 12 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/nick-hennion/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "2.2"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 87,
   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 66,
   "proven_predictions": 9,
   "proven_checked": 8,
   "proven_measured": 3,
   "proven_dates": 4,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 9,
     "checked": 8,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 3,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 3,
      "net_points_hundredths": -3250,
      "staked_hundredths": 30000,
      "return_percent": "-10.83",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2026-11-06",
      "period_to": "2026-11-07",
      "method_version": "2.2",
      "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0",
      "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.0",
      "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 0
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "author_price",
       "picks": 3,
       "return_main_percent": "-10.83",
       "return_other_percent": "-16.67",
       "settled_excluding_void": 3,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -3250,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -5000,
       "period_from": "2026-11-06",
       "period_to": "2026-11-07"
      },
      {
       "price": "Closing price",
       "series_code": "closing_live",
       "picks": 1,
       "return_main_percent": "-100.00",
       "return_other_percent": "-100.00",
       "settled_excluding_void": 1,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -10000,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -10000,
       "period_from": "2026-11-06",
       "period_to": "2026-11-06"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 8,
      "priced": 3
     },
     "accuracy": {
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   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
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   "group": "excluded",
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   "quote": "Los Angeles Rams Moneyline",
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   "published_at": "2026-01-25T15:41:15.000Z",
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   "quote": "my Seahawks vs Rams prediction is the Rams Spread (+2.5, -105)",
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   "published_at": "2026-01-25T15:36:01.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T12:46:04.075Z",
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   "quote": "My Broncos vs Patriots prediction is the Total Over 40.5 Points (-115).",
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   "published_at": "2026-01-25T15:35:23.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T12:46:05.428Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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   "quote": "my Broncos vs Patriots prediction is the Broncos Moneyline (+200)",
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   "quote": "I predict both teams score three or more touchdowns.",
   "group": "excluded",
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   "quote": "Saquon Barkley Over 24.5 Rushing Attempts (-120)",
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}
