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They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.", "page_category": "author" }, "restrictions": { "name_withdrawn": false, "tracker_number": null, "withdrawn_quotes": [], "removed_at": null, "cause": null, "suspended_records": [], "withdrawal_log_number": 0 }, "page_links": { "methodology": "/methodology/", "right_of_reply": "/right-of-reply/", "source_coverage": "/coverage/", "corrections_log": "/corrections/", "api": "/api/", "claim": "/claim/" }, "entity": { "id": "e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d", "public_name": "Nathan Egerton", "tracker_number": 1553, "status": "active", "inactive_since": null, "verified_creator": false, "observation_period": { "since": "2026-09-28", "until": "2026-11-07" }, "platform_list": [ { "medium": "website", "handle": null, "url": null, "link_confirmed": false, "show": true } ], "comment": null }, "headline_number": { "metric": { "metric_id": "p-e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d-roi-market-price-90d-z99", "code_name": "roi_market_price", "display_name": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot", "window_kind": "90d", "window_from": "2026-08-09", "window_to": "2026-11-07", "amount": "33.7891", "unit": "percent", "data_status": "calculated", "cause": null, "n_bets": 11, "n_events": 9, "n_void": 0, "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "ci_method": "not_estimated", "price_source": "market_price", "coverage_percent": "90.91", "breakdown": [], "methodology_version": "2.2", "data_date": "2026-11-07T17:50:40.989Z", "enough_for_ranking": false, "series_uid": null, "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot" }, "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 11 settled picks across 9 matches", "average_odds": "2.81", "odds_from_author": 10, "odds_from_snapshot": 1 }, "metrics": [], "history": [], "simulation": { "series_uid": "sr-cf620e5d9984da5f5c34e7f3", "bankroll_hundredths": 1037168, "reserve_hundredths": 0, "issued_total_hundredths": 1000000, "top_up_count": 0, "profit_hundredths": 37168, "rewards_off": null, "initial_hundredths": 1000000, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "data_points": [ { "at": "2026-10-11T15:11:30.021Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 1023500, "profit_hundredths": 23500, "outcome_id": "ish-d3144cd43c6c58bd49186bdc" }, { "at": "2026-10-21T00:41:06.517Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 1039700, "profit_hundredths": 39700, "outcome_id": "ish-d78f41e7527a32df26e21f70" }, { "at": "2026-10-26T12:50:40.382Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 1076200, "profit_hundredths": 76200, "outcome_id": "ish-9e8b8ebd7c273fc46cd49c1e" }, { "at": "2026-10-26T12:50:46.381Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 1083168, "profit_hundredths": 83168, "outcome_id": "ish-075730e9a7b9188f5337affb" }, { "at": "2026-10-31T20:11:17.737Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 1097168, "profit_hundredths": 97168, "outcome_id": "ish-26834e419239b55fec994ba7" }, { "at": "2026-11-03T22:07:41.411Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 1087168, "profit_hundredths": 87168, "outcome_id": "ish-7006f3fd57ec7dc96e7a1fb9" }, { "at": "2026-11-04T20:48:15.496Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 1077168, "profit_hundredths": 77168, "outcome_id": "ish-c4e87f46e0c4af9a58f602c2" }, { "at": "2026-11-04T20:48:15.516Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 1067168, "profit_hundredths": 67168, "outcome_id": "ish-39fd92cd3b9479f254e11fbd" }, { "at": "2026-11-04T20:48:15.530Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 1057168, "profit_hundredths": 57168, "outcome_id": "ish-83bdd16991e8dae71baad16e" }, { "at": "2026-11-06T22:16:42.500Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 1047168, "profit_hundredths": 47168, "outcome_id": "ish-6eac4d0fd2724c89a859dfbb" }, { "at": "2026-11-07T06:44:30.479Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 1037168, "profit_hundredths": 37168, "outcome_id": "ish-2a64baa65d7a2752d7ac5943" } ], "top_ups": [], "rule": "When the balance falls below 100 points and no bets are open, 10000 points are added; the remaining balance is kept. 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no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-ca3a900adb38709f552ed015", "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/10/#pick-n-ca3a900adb38709f552ed015", "quote_text": "A 2-0 win for the visitors is available at 10/1.", "fragment_from": 4734, "fragment_to": 4782, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.football365.com/match-preview/sunderland-v-chelsea-prediction-preview-2", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Nathan Egerton", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "7e1e089f422b8e8b3a81337cce44bcd74ae58536aad23f7943cc3a539ffc1ca9", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-11-07T18:18:47.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-07T18:35:32.773Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "priced", "status": "ambiguous", "cause": "", "cause_code": "ambiguous", "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-11-07T18:18:47.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-11-07T18:18:47.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-07T18:35:32.773Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; 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no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-1916477081e29a55ea95bcdf", "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/10/#pick-n-1916477081e29a55ea95bcdf", "quote_text": "so we’re backing a Chelsea win to nil at 11/4.", "fragment_from": 4237, "fragment_to": 4283, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.football365.com/match-preview/sunderland-v-chelsea-prediction-preview-2", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Nathan Egerton", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "7e1e089f422b8e8b3a81337cce44bcd74ae58536aad23f7943cc3a539ffc1ca9", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-11-07T18:18:47.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-07T18:35:32.773Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "priced", "status": "ambiguous", "cause": "", "cause_code": "ambiguous", "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-11-07T18:18:47.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-11-07T18:18:47.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-07T18:35:32.773Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-19dd10560a84418c1b8a5602", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-19dd10560a84418c1b8a5602", "quote_text": "Liverpool are 3/5 to go into the international break with a win, while Crystal Palace are 24/5 to do likewise. The Draw is 7/2.", "fragment_from": 3050, "fragment_to": 3177, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.football365.com/match-preview/crystal-palace-v-liverpool-prediction-preview", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Nathan Egerton", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "d5a687ce0f444bf575319c1abc47149c99e0661b70c8819a533a9fa66ea7bfb0", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-11-07T13:44:59.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-07T14:54:56.255Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-11-07T13:44:59.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-11-07T13:44:59.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-07T14:54:56.255Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-673f75f94a191579c202c8ba", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-673f75f94a191579c202c8ba", "quote_text": "Right-backs Conor Bradley (knee) and Jeremie Frimpong (hamstring) remain sidelined, along with Giovanni Leoni (ACL) and Hugo Ekitike (Achilles).", "fragment_from": 2871, "fragment_to": 3015, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.football365.com/match-preview/crystal-palace-v-liverpool-prediction-preview", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Nathan Egerton", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "d5a687ce0f444bf575319c1abc47149c99e0661b70c8819a533a9fa66ea7bfb0", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-11-07T13:44:59.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-07T14:54:56.255Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-11-07T13:44:59.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-11-07T13:44:59.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-07T14:54:56.255Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-821e09e958d2dccdd5f364e9", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-821e09e958d2dccdd5f364e9", "quote_text": "Ryan Gravenberch has missed the last two games with a heel injury and will have a late fitness test before the trip to Selhurst Park.", "fragment_from": 2138, "fragment_to": 2271, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.football365.com/match-preview/crystal-palace-v-liverpool-prediction-preview", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Nathan Egerton", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "d5a687ce0f444bf575319c1abc47149c99e0661b70c8819a533a9fa66ea7bfb0", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-11-07T13:44:59.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-07T14:54:56.255Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-11-07T13:44:59.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-11-07T13:44:59.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-07T14:54:56.255Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a 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"outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-11-07T13:44:59.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-11-07T13:44:59.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-07T14:54:56.255Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-514f1afec525ea5c40ac0d4a", "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/10/#pick-n-514f1afec525ea5c40ac0d4a", "quote_text": "He is 6/5 to score anytime at Selhurst Park", "fragment_from": 4614, "fragment_to": 4657, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.football365.com/match-preview/crystal-palace-v-liverpool-prediction-preview", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Nathan Egerton", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "d5a687ce0f444bf575319c1abc47149c99e0661b70c8819a533a9fa66ea7bfb0", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-11-07T13:44:59.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-07T14:54:56.255Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "priced", "status": "ambiguous", "cause": "", "cause_code": "ambiguous", "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-11-07T13:44:59.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-11-07T13:44:59.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-07T14:54:56.255Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-626b33bb4b12571b3f66d370", "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/10/#pick-n-626b33bb4b12571b3f66d370", "quote_text": "correct score, a 2-0 win for the visitors is available at 17/2.", "fragment_from": 4228, "fragment_to": 4291, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.football365.com/match-preview/crystal-palace-v-liverpool-prediction-preview", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Nathan Egerton", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "d5a687ce0f444bf575319c1abc47149c99e0661b70c8819a533a9fa66ea7bfb0", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-11-07T13:44:59.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-07T14:54:56.255Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "priced", "status": "ambiguous", "cause": "", "cause_code": "ambiguous", "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-11-07T13:44:59.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-11-07T13:44:59.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-07T14:54:56.255Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-b32afda01cd115c400874045", "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/10/#pick-n-b32afda01cd115c400874045", "quote_text": "leaning towards Liverpool -1.5 on the handicaps at 29/20", "fragment_from": 4096, "fragment_to": 4152, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.football365.com/match-preview/crystal-palace-v-liverpool-prediction-preview", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Nathan Egerton", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "d5a687ce0f444bf575319c1abc47149c99e0661b70c8819a533a9fa66ea7bfb0", "material_removed": false }, 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that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-b9d7bd5ce8eece3ad8373aa0", "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/8/#pick-n-b9d7bd5ce8eece3ad8373aa0", "quote_text": "The striker is 19/10 to score anytime, and he is 13/2 to be the last goalscorer in the game.", "fragment_from": 4079, "fragment_to": 4171, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.football365.com/match-preview/newcastle-v-everton-prediction-preview", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Nathan Egerton", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "1ebb02a09da3ef83061621a74df644ff50754c6b19ff6dcc82072a653a60266b", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-11-01T15:51:01.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-01T16:55:58.032Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "unpriced", "status": "not_supported", "cause": "", "cause_code": "not_supported", "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-11-01T15:51:01.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-11-01T15:51:01.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-01T16:55:58.032Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": null, "correction": null } ], "standing": { "titles": [ { "code_name": "P-07", "display_name": "Oct 2026: 7 of 11 result calls right · prices implied 4.5", "received_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "window_kind": "event", "cause": null, "type_code": null, "bucket_code": "all", "bucket": "Month above prices", "measure": null, "place": null, "out_of": null, "n_bets": 11, "n_events": null, "amount": null, "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "ci_level": null, "fact": "Oct 2026: 7 of 11 result calls right · prices implied 4.5", "rationale": "7 of 11 result calls right in Oct 2026, one call per match; the pre-match prices of the named outcomes implied 4.5 (margin included, so the comparison does not favour the tipster). Data: live record. Term: a dated fact.", "provenance": "live", "rules_version": "catalog-1", "methodology_version": "catalog-1", "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "valid_until": null, "anchor_id": "standing-p-07-all-event", "alt": "Nathan Egerton · Oct 2026: 7 of 11 result calls right · prices implied 4.5 · Tracked by Forecast Record", "csv_url": null, "embed": "\"Nathan", "neighbours": [], "window_words": "On show until 29 Apr 2027", "measure_words": null, "amount_words": null, "interval_words": null, "title_tier": "dated_record", "status": "active", "status_reason": null, "event_at": "2026-10-31", "evidence_through": "2026-10-31", "earned_at": "2026-10-31", "published_at": "2026-11-01", "visible_until": "2027-04-29", "badge_label": "Oct · 7 right, prices 4.5", "scope_words": null, "title_id": "zk-f2de338a0dc9bef29eba", "evidence_items": [ { "nid": "n-037ab26e431ec8a5078a7d11", "data": "2026-10-11", "match": "Hull City v Everton", "said_text": "1X2, match result: draw", "outcome_label": "right", "evidence_price": 3.3, "comparison": "20 other tipsters and sources on this match, 10 right (10 named draw, 9 named away win, 1 named home win)", "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/5/#pick-n-037ab26e431ec8a5078a7d11" }, { "nid": "n-e5d10cb6d2cb41f57ada1fcc", "data": "2026-10-20", "match": "Liverpool v Villarreal", "said_text": "Correct score: Liverpool 2-1 Villarreal at 19", "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right", "evidence_price": 1.49, "comparison": "36 other tipsters and sources on this match, 36 right (36 named home win)", "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/6/#pick-n-e5d10cb6d2cb41f57ada1fcc" }, { "nid": "n-592ff4d965da3f0b4595074c", "data": "2026-10-21", "match": "Como v Manchester United", "said_text": "Correct score: Como 1-1 Manchester United at 7", "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong", "evidence_price": 3.72, "comparison": "29 other tipsters and sources on this match, 18 right (18 named home win, 7 named draw, 4 named away win)", "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/6/#pick-n-592ff4d965da3f0b4595074c" }, { "nid": "n-47f1c78c6d1b8f52199139d5", "data": "2026-10-25", "match": "Crystal Palace v Newcastle United", "said_text": "Correct score: Crystal Palace 1-1 Newcastle United at 8.5", "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong", "evidence_price": 3.5, "comparison": "13 other tipsters and sources on this match, 7 right (7 named away win, 4 named draw, 2 named home win)", "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/6/#pick-n-47f1c78c6d1b8f52199139d5" }, { "nid": "n-5660add3c5bb3e6273a93494", "data": "2026-10-25", "match": "Hull City v Brentford", "said_text": "Correct score: Hull City 1-1 Brentford at 8", "outcome_label": "score right · result right", "evidence_price": 4.0, "comparison": "17 other tipsters and sources on this match, 2 right (15 named away win, 2 named draw)", "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/6/#pick-n-5660add3c5bb3e6273a93494" }, { "nid": "n-e21fa3cb26b30eb1cd6f4dc2", "data": "2026-10-25", "match": "Liverpool v Brighton & Hove Albion", "said_text": "Correct score: Liverpool 2-1 Brighton & Hove Albion at 10", "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right", "evidence_price": 1.95, "comparison": "24 other tipsters and sources on this match, 13 right (13 named home win, 8 named draw, 3 named away win)", "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/7/#pick-n-e21fa3cb26b30eb1cd6f4dc2" }, { "nid": "n-ea68ed63c4077b0b5add5a02", "data": "2026-10-25", "match": "Manchester United v AFC Bournemouth", "said_text": "Correct score: Manchester United 2-2 AFC Bournemouth at 13", "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong", "evidence_price": 3.41, "comparison": "21 other tipsters and sources on this match, 5 right (10 named home win, 6 named draw, 5 named away win)", "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/7/#pick-n-ea68ed63c4077b0b5add5a02" }, { "nid": "n-e68775762df7d5219a28d3e0", "data": "2026-10-25", "match": "Sunderland v Leeds United", "said_text": "Correct score: Sunderland 1-1 Leeds United at 7", "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right", "evidence_price": 3.1, "comparison": "21 other tipsters and sources on this match, 5 right (14 named away win, 5 named draw, 2 named home win)", "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/7/#pick-n-e68775762df7d5219a28d3e0" }, { "nid": "n-55310f10214f5688c1fef369", "data": "2026-10-31", "match": "Chelsea v Manchester United", "said_text": "Correct score: Chelsea 1-0 Manchester United at 11", "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right", "evidence_price": 2.2, "comparison": "50 other tipsters and sources on this match, 43 right (43 named home win, 6 named draw, 1 named away win)", "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/7/#pick-n-55310f10214f5688c1fef369" }, { "nid": "n-8ae0ab8d0cfb24cb0aff2a56", "data": "2026-10-31", "match": "Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace", "said_text": "Correct score: Tottenham Hotspur 2-0 Crystal Palace at 9.5", "outcome_label": "score right · result right", "evidence_price": 1.65, "comparison": "37 other tipsters and sources on this match, 34 right (34 named home win, 3 named away win)", "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/8/#pick-n-8ae0ab8d0cfb24cb0aff2a56" }, { "nid": "n-0602c0858bbc10ec243cb06d", "data": "2026-10-31", "match": "Aston Villa v Fulham", "said_text": "Correct score: Aston Villa 2-0 Fulham at 12", "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong", "evidence_price": 1.98, "comparison": "39 other tipsters and sources on this match, 0 right (39 named home win)", "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/8/#pick-n-0602c0858bbc10ec243cb06d" } ], "evidence_total": 11, "badge": { "variants": [ { "size": "l", "theme": "light", "width": 1157, "height": 40, "url": "/b/e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d/p-07-all-event-l-light.svg" }, { "size": "l", "theme": "dark", "width": 1157, "height": 40, "url": "/b/e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d/p-07-all-event-l-dark.svg" }, { "size": "m", "theme": "light", "width": 851, "height": 28, "url": "/b/e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d/p-07-all-event-m-light.svg" }, { "size": "m", 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score 2–0 · Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace · 31 Oct 2026", "received_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "window_kind": "event", "cause": null, "type_code": null, "bucket_code": "all", "bucket": "Exact score called", "measure": null, "place": null, "out_of": null, "n_bets": 1, "n_events": null, "amount": null, "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "ci_level": null, "fact": "Exact score 2–0 · Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace · 31 Oct 2026", "rationale": "Correct score 2–0 called before the match; 17 other tipsters and sources named an exact score on this match, 9 right. Data: live record. Term: a dated fact.", "provenance": "live", "rules_version": "catalog-1", "methodology_version": "catalog-1", "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "valid_until": null, "anchor_id": "standing-cs-10-all-event", "alt": "Nathan Egerton · Exact score 2–0 · Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace · 31 Oct 2026 · Tracked by Forecast Record", "csv_url": null, "embed": "\"Nathan", "neighbours": [], "window_words": "On show until 29 Jan 2027", "measure_words": null, "amount_words": null, "interval_words": null, "title_tier": "dated_record", "status": "active", "status_reason": null, "event_at": "2026-10-31", "evidence_through": "2026-10-31", "earned_at": "2026-10-31", "published_at": "2026-11-01", "visible_until": "2027-01-29", "badge_label": "Exact score 2–0 · 31 Oct", "scope_words": null, "title_id": "zk-db0c10dd889118726f57", "evidence_items": [ { "nid": "n-8ae0ab8d0cfb24cb0aff2a56", "data": "2026-10-31", "match": "Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace", "said_text": "Correct score: Tottenham Hotspur 2-0 Crystal Palace at 9.5", "outcome_label": "score right · result right", "evidence_price": null, "comparison": "17 other tipsters and sources named an exact score on this match, 9 right", "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/8/#pick-n-8ae0ab8d0cfb24cb0aff2a56" } ], "evidence_total": 1, "badge": { "variants": [ { "size": "l", "theme": "light", "width": 1256, "height": 40, "url": "/b/e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d/cs-10-all-event-l-light.svg" }, { "size": "l", "theme": "dark", "width": 1256, "height": 40, "url": "/b/e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d/cs-10-all-event-l-dark.svg" }, { "size": "m", "theme": "light", "width": 924, "height": 28, "url": "/b/e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d/cs-10-all-event-m-light.svg" }, { "size": "m", "theme": "dark", "width": 924, "height": 28, "url": "/b/e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d/cs-10-all-event-m-dark.svg" }, { "size": "s", "theme": "light", "width": 722, "height": 20, "url": "/b/e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d/cs-10-all-event-s-light.svg" }, { "size": "s", "theme": "dark", "width": 722, "height": 20, "url": "/b/e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d/cs-10-all-event-s-dark.svg" } ], "card_url": "/b/e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d/cs-10-all-event-card.svg" }, "profile_anchor": "title-db0c10dd8891", "chance": { "contract_version": 1, "kind": "single", "priced": 0, "unpriced": 1, "probability": null, "one_in": null, "words": "No recorded prices for these picks, so the chance cannot be measured." }, "embed_anchor": "title-exact-score-called" }, { "code_name": "E-07", "display_name": "Draw at 4.00 · Hull City v Brentford · 25 Oct 2026", "received_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "window_kind": "event", "cause": null, "type_code": null, "bucket_code": "all", "bucket": "Long-price call", "measure": null, "place": null, "out_of": null, "n_bets": 1, "n_events": null, "amount": null, "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "ci_level": null, "fact": "Draw at 4.00 · Hull City v Brentford · 25 Oct 2026", "rationale": "Draw called correctly at 4.00 (our pre-match price). 17 other tipsters and sources on this match, 2 right (15 named away win, 2 named draw). Data: live record. Term: a dated fact.", "provenance": "live", "rules_version": "catalog-1", "methodology_version": "catalog-1", "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "valid_until": null, "anchor_id": "standing-e-07-all-event", "alt": "Nathan Egerton · Draw at 4.00 · Hull City v Brentford · 25 Oct 2026 · Tracked by Forecast Record", "csv_url": null, "embed": "\"Nathan", "neighbours": [], "window_words": "On show until 23 Jan 2027", "measure_words": null, "amount_words": null, "interval_words": null, "title_tier": "dated_record", "status": "active", "status_reason": null, "event_at": "2026-10-25", "evidence_through": "2026-10-25", "earned_at": "2026-10-25", "published_at": "2026-10-26", "visible_until": "2027-01-23", "badge_label": "Correct at 4.00 · 25 Oct", "scope_words": null, "title_id": "zk-d0be0c1285c250a8242e", "evidence_items": [ { "nid": "n-5660add3c5bb3e6273a93494", "data": "2026-10-25", "match": "Hull City v Brentford", "said_text": "Correct score: Hull City 1-1 Brentford at 8", "outcome_label": "score right · result right", "evidence_price": 4.0, "comparison": "17 other tipsters and sources on this match, 2 right (15 named away win, 2 named draw)", "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/6/#pick-n-5660add3c5bb3e6273a93494" } ], "evidence_total": 1, "badge": { "variants": [ { "size": "l", "theme": "light", "width": 1080, "height": 40, "url": "/b/e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d/e-07-all-event-l-light.svg" }, { "size": "l", "theme": "dark", "width": 1080, "height": 40, "url": "/b/e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d/e-07-all-event-l-dark.svg" }, { "size": "m", "theme": "light", "width": 795, "height": 28, "url": "/b/e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d/e-07-all-event-m-light.svg" }, { "size": "m", "theme": "dark", "width": 795, "height": 28, "url": "/b/e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d/e-07-all-event-m-dark.svg" }, { "size": "s", "theme": "light", "width": 620, "height": 20, "url": "/b/e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d/e-07-all-event-s-light.svg" }, { "size": "s", "theme": "dark", "width": 620, "height": 20, "url": "/b/e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d/e-07-all-event-s-dark.svg" } ], "card_url": "/b/e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d/e-07-all-event-card.svg" }, "profile_anchor": "title-d0be0c1285c2", "chance": { "contract_version": 1, "kind": "single", "priced": 1, "unpriced": 0, "hits": 1, "probability": 0.25, "one_in": 4, "log10": -0.6, "words": "1 in 4", "rule": "market probability (1/price) of this one pick", "note": "market prices include the bookmaker margin, so the chance is slightly overstated — a cautious figure" }, "embed_anchor": "title-long-price-call" }, { "code_name": "E-07", "display_name": "Draw at 3.10 · Sunderland v Leeds United · 25 Oct 2026", "received_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "window_kind": "event", "cause": null, "type_code": null, "bucket_code": "z-a8792d85f3", "bucket": "Long-price call", "measure": null, "place": null, "out_of": null, "n_bets": 1, "n_events": null, "amount": null, "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "ci_level": null, "fact": "Draw at 3.10 · Sunderland v Leeds United · 25 Oct 2026", "rationale": "Draw called correctly at 3.10 (our pre-match price). 21 other tipsters and sources on this match, 5 right (14 named away win, 5 named draw, 2 named home win). Data: live record. Term: a dated fact.", "provenance": "live", "rules_version": "catalog-1", "methodology_version": "catalog-1", "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "valid_until": null, "anchor_id": "standing-e-07-z-a8792d85f3-event", "alt": "Nathan Egerton · Draw at 3.10 · Sunderland v Leeds United · 25 Oct 2026 · Tracked by Forecast Record", "csv_url": null, "embed": "\"Nathan", "neighbours": [], "window_words": "On show until 23 Jan 2027", "measure_words": null, "amount_words": null, "interval_words": null, "title_tier": "dated_record", "status": "active", "status_reason": null, "event_at": "2026-10-25", "evidence_through": "2026-10-25", "earned_at": "2026-10-25", "published_at": "2026-10-26", "visible_until": "2027-01-23", "badge_label": "Correct at 3.10 · 25 Oct", "scope_words": null, "title_id": "zk-a8792d85f3614098cd2b", "evidence_items": [ { "nid": "n-e68775762df7d5219a28d3e0", "data": "2026-10-25", "match": "Sunderland v Leeds United", "said_text": "Correct score: Sunderland 1-1 Leeds United at 7", "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right", "evidence_price": 3.1, "comparison": "21 other tipsters and sources on this match, 5 right (14 named away win, 5 named draw, 2 named home win)", "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/7/#pick-n-e68775762df7d5219a28d3e0" } ], "evidence_total": 1, "badge": { "variants": [ { "size": "l", "theme": "light", "width": 1124, "height": 40, "url": "/b/e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d/e-07-z-a8792d85f3-event-l-light.svg" }, { "size": "l", "theme": "dark", "width": 1124, "height": 40, "url": "/b/e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d/e-07-z-a8792d85f3-event-l-dark.svg" }, { "size": "m", "theme": "light", "width": 827, "height": 28, "url": "/b/e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d/e-07-z-a8792d85f3-event-m-light.svg" }, { "size": "m", "theme": "dark", "width": 827, "height": 28, "url": "/b/e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d/e-07-z-a8792d85f3-event-m-dark.svg" }, { "size": "s", "theme": "light", "width": 645, "height": 20, "url": "/b/e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d/e-07-z-a8792d85f3-event-s-light.svg" }, { "size": "s", "theme": "dark", "width": 645, "height": 20, "url": "/b/e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d/e-07-z-a8792d85f3-event-s-dark.svg" } ], "card_url": "/b/e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d/e-07-z-a8792d85f3-event-card.svg" }, "profile_anchor": "title-a8792d85f361", "chance": { "contract_version": 1, "kind": "single", "priced": 1, "unpriced": 0, "hits": 1, "probability": 0.322581, "one_in": 3, "log10": -0.49, "words": "1 in 3", "rule": "market probability (1/price) of this one pick", "note": "market prices include the bookmaker margin, so the chance is slightly overstated — a cautious figure" }, "embed_anchor": "title-long-price-call-long-price-call" } ], "publication_mode": "top20", "empty_reason": null, "rules_version": "catalog-1", "insufficient": [], "badges_on_page": 0, "header_titles": [ { "title_id": "zk-f2de338a0dc9bef29eba", "code_name": "P-07", "title_tier": "dated_record", "badge_label": "Oct · 7 right, prices 4.5", "body": "Oct 2026: 7 of 11 result calls right · prices implied 4.5", "tier": null, "provenance": "live", "anchor_id": "title-f2de338a0dc9", "event_at": "2026-10-31", "url": "/titles/p-07-month-above-prices/#zk-f2de338a0dc9bef29eba" }, { "title_id": "zk-db0c10dd889118726f57", "code_name": "CS-10", "title_tier": "dated_record", "badge_label": "Exact score 2–0 · 31 Oct", "body": "Exact score 2–0 · Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace · 31 Oct 2026", "tier": null, "provenance": "live", "anchor_id": "title-db0c10dd8891", "event_at": "2026-10-31", "url": "/titles/cs-10-exact-score-called/" }, { "title_id": "zk-d0be0c1285c250a8242e", "code_name": "E-07", "title_tier": "dated_record", "badge_label": "Correct at 4.00 · 25 Oct", "body": "Draw at 4.00 · Hull City v Brentford · 25 Oct 2026", "tier": null, "provenance": "live", "anchor_id": "title-d0be0c1285c2", "event_at": "2026-10-25", "url": "/titles/e-07-long-price-call/" } ], "record_origin": [], "recent_record": [ { "code_name": "P-07", "body": "Oct 2026: 7 of 11 result calls right · prices implied 4.5", "event_at": "2026-10-31", "url": null, "provenance": "live", "anchor_id": "title-f2de338a0dc9" }, { "code_name": "CS-10", "body": "Exact score 2–0 · Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace · 31 Oct 2026", "event_at": "2026-10-31", "url": null, "provenance": "live", "anchor_id": "title-db0c10dd8891" }, { "code_name": "E-07", "body": "Draw at 4.00 · Hull City v Brentford · 25 Oct 2026", "event_at": "2026-10-25", "url": null, "provenance": "live", "anchor_id": "title-d0be0c1285c2" }, { "code_name": "E-07", "body": "Draw at 3.10 · Sunderland v Leeds United · 25 Oct 2026", "event_at": "2026-10-25", "url": null, "provenance": "live", "anchor_id": "title-a8792d85f361" } ], "record_details": [], "history": [] }, "retro": null, "late": { "selected": 10, "by_proof": { "web_archive": 10 }, "double": 0, "span_from": "2026-09-09", "span_to": "2026-09-20", "body": "10 picks were published before kick-off and found by us only after the match had started. The time of publication is evidenced (an independent web archive copy taken before kick-off: 10). Each is priced at the market price in our own price history at that moment; the author’s own stated price, where given, is a separate line. These picks are never mixed with the record kept before kick-off and do not enter rankings or the points bankroll. Our price history starts on 26 September 2026; for earlier picks the price at publication is unknown, and the closing price is shown on its own line, outside this series.", "series_list": [ { "code_name": "publication_market_price", "display_name": "Market price at the evidenced time of publication", "n": 0, "roi": null, "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "price_unknown": 10, "waiting": 0, "data_status": "unknown", "methodology_version": "late-1.0" }, { "code_name": "publication_author_price", "display_name": "Author's own stated price", "n": 7, "roi": "-77.1429", "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "price_unknown": 0, "waiting": 2, "data_status": "calculated", "methodology_version": "late-1.0" }, { "code_name": "closing_for_reference", "display_name": "Closing price (not part of this series)", "n": 3, "roi": "87.6667", "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "price_unknown": 7, "waiting": 0, "data_status": "calculated", "methodology_version": "late-1.0" } ], "methodology_version": "late-1.0" }, "price_vs_market": { "contract_version": "1", "threshold_percent": "5", "rows": [ { "basis": "snapshot", "basis_words": "our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off)", "basis_short": "Our market price when we first recorded the pick", "compared": 10, "above": 3, "above_share_percent": "30.0", "below": 0, "within": 7, "median_difference_percent": "3.5", "not_comparable": 0, "disputed": 0, "status": "calculated" } ], "examples": [ { "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/6/#pick-n-a5ae4a2afea2e9152e508945", "basis": "snapshot", "stated": "5.00", "market": "4.65", "difference_percent": "7.5" }, { "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/9/#pick-n-b365e054fb77016fb3ae6c99", "basis": "snapshot", "stated": "2.70", "market": "2.55", "difference_percent": "5.9" } ], "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way." }, "record_summary": { "contract_version": "1", "entity_type": "person", "entity_words": "Individual author", "source": { "name": "football365.com", "url": "https://www.football365.com/match-preview/sunderland-v-chelsea-prediction-preview-2" }, "observed_from": "2026-09-28", "observed_to": "2026-11-07", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "state": "settled", "series_code": "market_price", "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price", "restored": false, "headline_kind": "live_snapshot", "headline_part": "live", "settled_picks": 11, "matches": 9, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": 37168, "staked_hundredths": 110000, "return_percent": "33.79", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "period_from": "2026-10-11", "period_to": "2026-11-06", "status": "calculated", "method_version": "2.2", "short_history": true, "reason": null, "reasons": [], "sentence": "Forecast Record recorded 11 settled live picks by Nathan Egerton before kick-off across 9 matches between 11 October and 6 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned +33.8% on the total staked. Of the 180 predictions we hold for Nathan Egerton, 80 are linked to matches: 53 were recorded by us before kick-off and 27 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "numbers": [ { "label": "Settled live picks", "value": "11", "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick", "note": null }, { "label": "Matches", "value": "9", "anchor": "/methodology/#match", "note": null }, { "label": "Net result", "value": "+371.68 points", "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement", "note": "100 points per pick" }, { "label": "Return at our recorded market price", "value": "+33.8%", "anchor": "/methodology/#roi", "note": null } ], "limitations": [], "other_series": [], "return_over_time": [ { "date": "2026-10-11", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 23500, "n": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-20", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 39700, "n": 2 }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 29700, "n": 3 }, { "date": "2026-10-25", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 73168, "n": 5 }, { "date": "2026-10-31", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 87168, "n": 6 }, { "date": "2026-11-03", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 77168, "n": 7 }, { "date": "2026-11-04", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 47168, "n": 10 }, { "date": "2026-11-06", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 37168, "n": 11 } ], "return_over_time_parts": { "live": { "part": "live", "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "x_axis": "match_date", "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.", "settled_picks": 11, "matches": 9, "match_dates": 8, "period_from": "2026-10-11", "period_to": "2026-11-06", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "final_points_hundredths": 37168, "low": { "date": "2026-10-11", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 23500, "after_picks": 1 }, "high": { "date": "2026-10-31", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 87168, "after_picks": 6 }, "line_drawn": true, "steps": [ { "date": "2026-10-11", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 23500, "n": 1, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-20", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 39700, "n": 2, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 29700, "n": 3, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-25", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 73168, "n": 5, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2026-10-31", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 87168, "n": 6, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-11-03", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 77168, "n": 7, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-11-04", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 47168, "n": 10, "picks": 3 }, { "date": "2026-11-06", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 37168, "n": 11, "picks": 1 } ] }, "archived": null }, "author_response": null, "cite": { "text": "Forecast Record recorded 11 settled live picks by Nathan Egerton before kick-off across 9 matches between 11 October and 6 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned +33.8% on the total staked. Of the 180 predictions we hold for Nathan Egerton, 80 are linked to matches: 53 were recorded by us before kick-off and 27 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/nathan-egerton/", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "2.2" }, "origin": { "contract_version": "1", "predictions": 180, "under_review": 0, "no_match_linked": 100, "proven_predictions": 53, "proven_checked": 53, "proven_measured": 22, "proven_dates": 11, "parts": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.", "predictions": 53, "checked": 53, "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "series_code": "market_price", "main": { "settled_picks": 11, "void": 0, "matches": 9, "net_points_hundredths": 37168, "staked_hundredths": 110000, "return_percent": "33.79", "interval_low": null, "interval_high": null, "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval", "period_from": "2026-10-11", "period_to": "2026-11-06", "method_version": "2.2", "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0", "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.0", "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 2 }, "same_picks": [ { "price": "Author-quoted price", "series_code": "author_price", "picks": 10, "return_main_percent": "13.67", "return_other_percent": "19.30", "settled_excluding_void": 10, "net_main_points_hundredths": 13668, "net_other_points_hundredths": 19300, "period_from": "2026-10-20", "period_to": "2026-11-06" }, { "price": "Closing price", "series_code": "closing_live", "picks": 6, "return_main_percent": "24.11", "return_other_percent": "29.83", "settled_excluding_void": 6, "net_main_points_hundredths": 14468, "net_other_points_hundredths": 17897, "period_from": "2026-10-11", "period_to": "2026-11-06" } ], "score": { "score_forecasts": 11, "exact_hits": 1, "exact_rate": 9.1, "outcome_checked": 11, "outcome_hits": 5, "outcome_rate": 45.5, "baseline_matches": 9, "baseline_distinct_matches": 9, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 5, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": 55.6, "favourite_hits": 3, "favourite_rate": 33.3, "price_basis": "our pre-match snapshot", "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 8, "lines": [ "Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.", "1 of 11 score forecasts named the exact score (9.1%).", "The result implied by the named score was right in 5 of 9 matches; the market favourite was right in 3 of the same 9 matches.", "A pre-match market favourite is known for 9 of 11 forecasts; the comparison uses only those.", "The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest price in our own odds snapshot taken before kick-off.", "The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win)." ] }, "eligible": { "checked": 53, "priced": 11 }, "accuracy": { "picks": 11, "won": 5, "won_percent": "45.5", "implied_percent": "39.8", "left_out": 0, "by_market": [ { "market": "Result and both teams to score", "won": 2, "picks": 5, "implied_percent": "34.7" }, { "market": "Asian handicap", "won": 1, "picks": 2, "implied_percent": "42.3" }, { "market": "Over/under goals", "won": 1, "picks": 2, "implied_percent": "52.8" }, { "market": "Match result", "won": 1, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "29.9" }, { "market": "Team goals", "won": 0, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "44.2" } ] }, "reviewed_after": { "predictions": 36, "right": 10, "wrong": 25, "other": 1 } }, { "code": "archived", "title": "Archived before kick-off", "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.", "predictions": 0, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null }, { "code": "found_after", "title": "Found after the match", "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.", "predictions": 27, "checked": 25, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 25, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null } ] }, "live_alongside": null, "headline_record_ids": [ "n-037ab26e431ec8a5078a7d11", "n-0fa8fc288c51ba7a48885249", "n-6bbeae9b30ee3c769e41a983", "n-7195681d05b59aa652c4591d", "n-733680e1637631588b217e9d", "n-849b4eb169178cf035abfe45", 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no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-2bf093a0c645134fa86056f7", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "That leads us towards Draw-Arsenal in the Half-Time Full-Time market at 7/2.", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-09-10T14:31:21.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T21:10:26.655Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-ea1b4b42f78b5ba3f0e75139", "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/4/#pick-n-ea1b4b42f78b5ba3f0e75139", "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Under 2.5 goals is also available at 4/5.", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-09-10T14:31:21.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T21:10:26.655Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": { "at": "2026-10-14T02:00:56.457Z", "field": "line sign", "reason": "Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and the outcome is worked out on it. This pick was never executed, so no number changes.", "version": 2, "url": "/corrections/#c-f1b2048399e9", "text": "Corrected on 14 October 2026: Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and" }, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-ea1b4b42f78b5ba3f0e75139", "quote_text": "Under 2.5 goals is also available at 4/5.", "fragment_from": 4023, "fragment_to": 4064, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.football365.com/match-preview/sunderland-v-arsenal-prediction-preview", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Nathan Egerton", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "e49569ceb01c4f7a73376a093b36fc9860de134899e42b20e02cbab7f21c2934", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-09-10T14:31:21.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-28T21:10:26.655Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "priced", "status": "not_supported", "cause": "", "cause_code": "not_supported", "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-09-10T14:31:21.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-09-10T14:31:21.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-28T21:10:26.655Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [ { "at": "2026-10-14T02:00:56.457Z", "field_name": "line sign", "was": "Over/Under −2.5 goals · under −2.5", "now": "Over/Under 2.5 goals · under 2.5", "cause": "Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and the outcome is worked out on it. This pick was never executed, so no number changes." } ], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": null, "correction": { "at": "2026-10-14T02:00:56.457Z", "field": "line sign", "reason": "Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and the outcome is worked out on it. This pick was never executed, so no number changes.", "version": 2, "url": "/corrections/#c-f1b2048399e9", "text": "Corrected on 14 October 2026: Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and" }, "choice_words": "a pick" } }, { "record_id": "n-1cdc196928e8dff06aa203bb", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "we’re backing an Arsenal win to nil at 13/10.", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-09-10T14:31:21.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T21:10:26.655Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-946d2ad5195869e5fc0e15c9", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "He is 7/10 to score anytime.", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-09-08T13:51:23.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T21:17:12.529Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-efbfe19e7cdbc875bca8fd58", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "He is also 1/1 to register an assist.", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-09-08T13:51:23.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T21:17:12.529Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-75943eaff114833ea2a40872", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "head to the Half Time/Full Time market and back Man Utd/Man Utd. The hosts are 1/2 to be in front after both 45 and 90 minutes.", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-09-08T13:51:23.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T21:17:12.529Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-f5ee7a36f75977c2717d0b1b", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "The 35-year-old is still capable of producing moments of magic and is 23/10 to score or assist against the Gunners.", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-09-08T10:51:46.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T21:17:12.816Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-9a2e91d99d46412c8d2a2447", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "The Germany international has also started this season in strong form and is 2/1 to score against Napoli.", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-09-08T10:51:46.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T21:17:12.816Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null } ], "lead_time": { "contract_version": 1, "threshold_hours": 2.0, "picks": 80, "before_kickoff": 53, "after_kickoff": 27, "at_least_2h": 53, "share_2h_plus": 66.2, "median_hours": 27.5, "min_hours": 7.1, "max_hours": 52.6, "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off." }, "baseline": { "contract_version": 1, "series_code": "market_price", "rule": "recorded-line-1.0", "state": "settled", "picks": 3, "settled_picks_all": 11, "excluded": { "market_without_favourite": 6, "no_recorded_line": 2, "favourite_not_settled": 0 }, "staked_hundredths": 30000, "author_net_hundredths": 20468, "favourite_net_hundredths": 3937, "difference_hundredths": 16531, "author_return_percent": 68.23, "favourite_return_percent": 13.12, "author_hit_rate": 66.7, "favourite_hit_rate": 66.7, "picked_favourite_share": 33.3, "by_market": [ { "market_code": "total", "picks": 2, "staked_hundredths": 20000, "author_net_hundredths": -3032, "favourite_net_hundredths": 13937, "author_hits": 1, "favourite_hits": 2, "picked_favourite": 1, "author_return_percent": -15.16, "favourite_return_percent": 69.69 }, { "market_code": "1x2", "picks": 1, "staked_hundredths": 10000, "author_net_hundredths": 23500, "favourite_net_hundredths": -10000, "author_hits": 1, "favourite_hits": 0, "picked_favourite": 0, "author_return_percent": 235.0, "favourite_return_percent": -100.0 } ], "return_over_time": [ { "kickoff": "2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 23500, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -10000 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-25T16:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 30468, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -3056 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-06T20:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 20468, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 3937 } ], "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out." }, "pagination": { "per_page": 20, "total": 180, "pages": 10, "page_urls": [ "/authors/nathan-egerton/", "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/2/", "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/3/", "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/4/", "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/5/", "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/6/", "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/7/", "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/8/", "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/9/", "/authors/nathan-egerton/picks/10/" ], "groups": { "settled": 11, "pending": 0, "excluded": 169 }, "continuation": "by_time", "page": 1, "first": 1, "last": 20, "author_url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/", "current": false }, "title_tag": "Nathan Egerton Predictions: Verified Record, Results and Sources", "calculator": null, "person": { "person_id": "o-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d", "type_code": "individual", "name_shown": "Nathan Egerton", "main_entity": "e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d", "identity": { "status": "not_verified", "is_verified": false, "when": null, "source_list": [] }, "platform_list": [ { "entity_ref": "e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d", "medium": "football365.com", "channel": "author pages", "domain": "football365.com", "source_info": null, "byline": "Nathan Egerton", "url": null, "summary": { "statements": 423, "predictions": 180, "settled_picks": 11, "headline_kind": "live_snapshot", "return_percent": 33.79, "headline_part": "live", "period_from": "2026-09-28", "period_to": "2026-11-07" } } ], "previously": [], "trust_tier": "probation" }, "data_revision": { "data_version": "2026-11-07.2", "updated": "2026-11-07", "current_release": "2026-11-07.2", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "2.2", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "series_code": "market_price", "sample": { "settled_picks": 11, "matches": 9, "void": 0, "period_from": "2026-10-11", "period_to": "2026-11-06", "composition_hash": "2d52d0ec65f14b0c8ff8508c07709c6cf3a249d7a044e50fffec77102236db9e" }, "changes_url": "#changes", "corrections_url": "/corrections/" }, "number_changes": [ { "id": "zc-73c95f01458c9043d0d1", "at": "2026-11-07T20:05:20.937Z", "data_version": "2026-11-07.2", "previous_data_version": "2026-11-07.1", "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-11-06.2", "return_percent": "47.17", "settled_picks": 10, "matches": 8, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "618bda2d6e6bbd1ba150b9a14c75d84c1d760ff15c23ad3c2a136e8a5681c6b5", "text": "+47.17% on 10 settled picks across 8 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-11-07.2", "return_percent": "33.79", "settled_picks": 11, "matches": 9, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "2d52d0ec65f14b0c8ff8508c07709c6cf3a249d7a044e50fffec77102236db9e", "text": "+33.79% on 11 settled picks across 9 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-1de1bfb8c2aa3b7529c8", "at": "2026-11-07T00:03:19.781Z", "data_version": "2026-11-06.2", "previous_data_version": "2026-11-06.1", "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-11-05.1", "return_percent": "63.52", "settled_picks": 9, "matches": 7, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "3ec709d2e35a0f14af3be889ef6b69dae223ede67a802232218fbaa47f445f9e", "text": "+571.68 points on 9 settled picks across 7 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-11-06.2", "return_percent": "47.17", "settled_picks": 10, "matches": 8, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "618bda2d6e6bbd1ba150b9a14c75d84c1d760ff15c23ad3c2a136e8a5681c6b5", "text": "+47.17% on 10 settled picks across 8 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-6968164e8516e7b53bd0", "at": "2026-11-05T05:43:48.128Z", "data_version": "2026-11-05.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-11-04.3", "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-11-04.1", "return_percent": "145.28", "settled_picks": 6, "matches": 6, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "694e0a3585a2fefa75724f0d79fbab0e1e06e717257918d3572070efb05dccf0", "text": "+871.68 points on 6 settled picks across 6 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-11-05.1", "return_percent": "63.52", "settled_picks": 9, "matches": 7, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "3ec709d2e35a0f14af3be889ef6b69dae223ede67a802232218fbaa47f445f9e", "text": "+571.68 points on 9 settled picks across 7 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "3 new settled picks from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 3, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-56c2a633c8e0726352ef", "at": "2026-11-04T03:35:56.412Z", "data_version": "2026-11-04.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-11-03.3", "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-31.2", "return_percent": "194.34", "settled_picks": 5, "matches": 5, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "7f786a87b99998b2596b3203b0d67310542b105adbca5856023b1e7dd376602b", "text": "+971.68 points on 5 settled picks across 5 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-11-04.1", "return_percent": "145.28", "settled_picks": 6, "matches": 6, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "694e0a3585a2fefa75724f0d79fbab0e1e06e717257918d3572070efb05dccf0", "text": "+871.68 points on 6 settled picks across 6 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-bfa7fc16c7c6121ff723", "at": "2026-10-31T21:01:38.334Z", "data_version": "2026-10-31.2", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-31.1", "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-27.1", "return_percent": "207.92", "settled_picks": 4, "matches": 4, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "32b908ffc37eafd1343e950d9c455efc7d075103196f57354f81eb2e9cb151a1", "text": "+831.68 points on 4 settled picks across 4 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-31.2", "return_percent": "194.34", "settled_picks": 5, "matches": 5, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "7f786a87b99998b2596b3203b0d67310542b105adbca5856023b1e7dd376602b", "text": "+971.68 points on 5 settled picks across 5 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-8b52fe79a1a2a5badc9d", "at": "2026-10-27T07:47:02.386Z", "data_version": "2026-10-27.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-26.1", "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-21.1", "return_percent": "198.50", "settled_picks": 2, "matches": 2, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "c8b4b613cb2f5c23c872da3e07208d18b5b06973c32321f0d849ee139e3b6598", "text": "+397.00 points on 2 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-27.1", "return_percent": "207.92", "settled_picks": 4, "matches": 4, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "32b908ffc37eafd1343e950d9c455efc7d075103196f57354f81eb2e9cb151a1", "text": "+831.68 points on 4 settled picks across 4 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "2 new settled picks from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 2, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-859cd866e1bd6829ed4d", "at": "2026-10-21T02:27:55.722Z", "data_version": "2026-10-21.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-20.8", "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-11.6", "return_percent": "235.00", "settled_picks": 1, "matches": 1, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "12aa86546e37860c23e3cbf1ebe5ef3ae6253b198b07eab0c14c3978fbfc997a", "text": "+235.00 points on 1 settled pick across 1 match · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-21.1", "return_percent": "198.50", "settled_picks": 2, "matches": 2, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "c8b4b613cb2f5c23c872da3e07208d18b5b06973c32321f0d849ee139e3b6598", "text": "+397.00 points on 2 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-dd912e338515bcf1a061", "at": "2026-10-11T19:38:24.634Z", "data_version": "2026-10-11.6", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-11.5", "url": "/authors/nathan-egerton/", "category": "method_changed", "category_words": "Method changed", "before": null, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-11.6", "return_percent": "235.00", "settled_picks": 1, "matches": 1, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "12aa86546e37860c23e3cbf1ebe5ef3ae6253b198b07eab0c14c3978fbfc997a", "text": "+235.00 points on 1 settled pick across 1 match · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Method 2.2 (11 October 2026): the live market price of a pick is now the price at the moment we first recorded it (median of bookmakers in our price feed, quote no older than 5 minutes; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, before kick-off), not the price when our checks admitted it. Picks recorded before kick-off but checked after it are now settled the same way; picks with no price at that moment have no return. First headline number for this record: 1 settled pick.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": "i-052208b5a2e42b6cfbe5" } ], "counts_by_slice": { "portions": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "settled_picks": 11, "total_check": true, "market_list": [ { "code_name": "both_teams_score_and_result", "in_words": "Result and both teams to score", "url": null, "settled_picks": 5, "won": 2, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": 22700, "return_percent": "45.4", "period_from": "2026-10-20", "period_to": "2026-11-04", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "3.30", "odds_from_author": 5, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 }, { "code_name": "handicap_asian", "in_words": "Asian handicap", "url": null, "settled_picks": 2, "won": 1, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": 4000, "return_percent": "20.0", "period_from": "2026-10-31", "period_to": "2026-11-04", 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"data_changes": { "added_later": "27 records added on 28 Sep 2026 found after the match. The current numbers include them; numbers published earlier, including the record before each match, do not change.", "records_corrected": 4, "last_correction_at": "2026-10-14T02:00:56.457Z", "corrections_url": "/corrections/", "text": "4 records shown here have been corrected; the last correction was on 14 October 2026, with its reason in the corrections log." }, "entity_id": "person:o-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d", "source_revision": 141, "related": [ { "url": "/cards/e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d-bank/", "name": "Bankroll card — Nathan Egerton", "detail": null, "source_group": "cards" }, { "url": "/cards/e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d-month-following/", "name": "A month following Nathan Egerton", "detail": null, "source_group": "cards" }, { "url": "/cards/e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d-said-vs-happened/", "name": "Said → happened — Nathan Egerton", "detail": null, "source_group": "cards" }, { "url": "/cards/e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d-turning-point/", "name": "Turning point — Nathan Egerton", "detail": null, "source_group": "cards" }, { "url": "/for-authors/nathan-egerton/", "name": "Your record on Forecast Record: Nathan Egerton", "detail": null, "source_group": "for_authors" } ], "number_sets": [ { "set": "profile.settled", "entity": "e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d", "value": 11, "where": "coverage", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.predictions", "entity": "e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d", "value": 180, "where": "coverage", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.predictions", "entity": "e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d", "value": 180, "where": "picks", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.part.live", "entity": "e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d", "value": 11, "where": "origin", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.part.archived", "entity": "e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d", "value": 0, "where": null, "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.part.found_after", "entity": "e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d", "value": 0, "where": null, "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.checked.archived", "entity": "e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d", "value": 0, "where": null, "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.checked.live", "entity": "e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d", "value": 53, "where": "origin", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.window", "entity": "e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d", "value": 11, "where": "calculation", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "label": true }, { "set": "profile.checked", "entity": "e-22aba9ac39912cdd0c97214d", "value": 53, "where": "trust-level", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "label": true } ] }