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They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.", "page_category": "author" }, "restrictions": { "name_withdrawn": false, "tracker_number": null, "withdrawn_quotes": [], "removed_at": null, "cause": null, "suspended_records": [], "withdrawal_log_number": 0 }, "page_links": { "methodology": "/methodology/", "right_of_reply": "/right-of-reply/", "source_coverage": "/coverage/", "corrections_log": "/corrections/", "api": "/api/", "claim": "/claim/" }, "entity": { "id": "e-abc50577c0fcb677e5ba6c0d", "public_name": "MJN1999", "tracker_number": 3160, "status": "active", "inactive_since": null, "verified_creator": false, "observation_period": { "since": "2026-10-11", "until": "2026-11-02" }, "platform_list": [ { "medium": "website", "handle": null, "url": null, "link_confirmed": false, "show": true } ], "comment": null }, "headline_number": { "metric": { "metric_id": "p-e-abc50577c0fcb677e5ba6c0d-roi-market-price-90d-z99", "code_name": "roi_market_price", "display_name": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot", "window_kind": "90d", "window_from": "2026-08-09", "window_to": "2026-11-07", "amount": "-100.0000", "unit": "percent", "data_status": "calculated", "cause": null, "n_bets": 1, "n_events": 1, "n_void": 0, "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "ci_method": "not_estimated", "price_source": "market_price", "coverage_percent": "100.00", "breakdown": [], "methodology_version": "2.2", "data_date": "2026-11-07T18:07:13.897Z", "enough_for_ranking": false, "series_uid": null, "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot" }, "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 1 settled pick across 1 match", "average_odds": "1.98", "odds_from_author": 1, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 }, "metrics": [], "history": [], "simulation": { "series_uid": "sr-9f3f429de91b2217e75f8e38", "bankroll_hundredths": 990000, "reserve_hundredths": 0, "issued_total_hundredths": 1000000, "top_up_count": 0, "profit_hundredths": -10000, "rewards_off": null, "initial_hundredths": 1000000, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "data_points": [ { "at": "2026-10-26T12:50:48.398Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 990000, "profit_hundredths": -10000, "outcome_id": "ish-75f153b60fbde5bafbb033af" } ], "top_ups": [], "rule": "When the balance falls below 100 points and no bets are open, 10000 points are added; the remaining balance is kept. 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"odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-09-23T14:24:14.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-09-23T14:24:14.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-11T02:53:14.929Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-b51d28709f7e99887402b080", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-b51d28709f7e99887402b080", "quote_text": "Tre ugers pause før næste kamp er til Brøndbys fordel efter fire nederlag i træk.", "fragment_from": 118, "fragment_to": 199, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.spilxperten.com/tips/broendby-vs-lyngby-11-okt-1600/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "MJN1999", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "741d0b244a5a6acd40e768b2be76d6d0abd78dc851e7e19093ecbe0d57932fd6", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-09-23T14:24:14.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-11T02:53:14.929Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "opinion", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, 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settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-a317ea3644757c21e5aa378b", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-a317ea3644757c21e5aa378b", "quote_text": "NY BOOKMAKER I DANMARK\n\n100% op til 1.000 kr\n\nBesøg Swiper", "fragment_from": 1730, "fragment_to": 1788, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.spilxperten.com/tips/broendby-vs-lyngby-11-okt-1600/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "MJN1999", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "741d0b244a5a6acd40e768b2be76d6d0abd78dc851e7e19093ecbe0d57932fd6", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-09-23T14:24:14.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-11T02:53:14.929Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-09-23T14:24:14.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-09-23T14:24:14.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-11T02:53:14.929Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-cff9546e3f2759d250c4b062", "url": "/authors/mjn1999/#pick-n-cff9546e3f2759d250c4b062", "quote_text": "Derfor hjemmesejr til 1,83.", "fragment_from": 2886, "fragment_to": 2913, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.spilxperten.com/tips/broendby-vs-lyngby-11-okt-1600/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "MJN1999", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "741d0b244a5a6acd40e768b2be76d6d0abd78dc851e7e19093ecbe0d57932fd6", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-09-23T14:24:14.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-11T02:53:14.929Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "priced", "status": "ambiguous", "cause": "", "cause_code": "not_checked", "event": { "event_id": "s-2d16712bdb3b", "display_name": "Brondby — Lyngby", "competition_name": "Danish Superliga", "starts_at": "2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z", "url": null, "scoreline": "5-2", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "outcome_label": "Brondby", "odds_set": { "by_author": "1.83", "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": "win", "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-09-23T14:24:14.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-09-23T14:24:14.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-11T02:53:14.929Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "1X2, match result", "choice": "Brondby", "author_odds": "1.83", "market_key": "1x2", "choice_key": "1", "period": "match", "line": null, "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "1X2, match result: Brondby at 1.83" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "win", "scoreline": "5-2", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Won: the final score was Brondby 5-2 Lyngby." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "8788b485f428bfc3072a6ea037e789cfbf7f80beec493ee81d915d7b61a4510b", "series_key": "author_price", "series_label": "At the author's stated price", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "choice": "Brondby", "decimal_odds": null, "odds_role": null, "stake_hundredths": null, "status": "skipped", "status_text": "Not executed: ", "result": null, "result_words": null, "change_hundredths": null, "executed_at": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false }, { "operation_id": "0f71fa3f6a1f6efd15badf1df8d692d31f9b8f36bf7bec691a5604bda980dbf2", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "choice": "Brondby", "decimal_odds": null, "odds_role": null, "stake_hundredths": null, "status": "skipped", "status_text": "Not executed: ", "result": null, "result_words": null, "change_hundredths": null, "executed_at": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": { "material_author": "MJN1999", "publisher": "SpilXperten", "forecaster": "MJN1999", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://www.spilxperten.com/tips/broendby-vs-lyngby-11-okt-1600/", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null } ], "standing": null, "retro": null, "late": null, "price_vs_market": { "contract_version": "1", "threshold_percent": "5", "rows": [ { "basis": "snapshot", "basis_words": "our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off)", "basis_short": "Our market price when we first recorded the pick", "compared": 1, "above": 0, "above_share_percent": "0.0", "below": 0, "within": 1, "median_difference_percent": "3.7", "not_comparable": 0, "disputed": 0, "status": "calculated" } ], "examples": [], "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way." }, "record_summary": { "contract_version": "1", "entity_type": "person", "entity_words": "Individual author", "source": { "name": "spilxperten.com", "url": "https://www.spilxperten.com/tips/silkeborg-lyngby-6-nov-1900/" }, "observed_from": "2026-10-11", "observed_to": "2026-11-02", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "state": "settled", "series_code": "market_price", "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price", "restored": false, "headline_kind": "live_snapshot", "headline_part": "live", "settled_picks": 1, "matches": 1, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -10000, "staked_hundredths": 10000, "return_percent": "-100.00", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "period_from": "2026-10-25", "period_to": "2026-10-25", "status": "calculated", "method_version": "2.2", "short_history": true, "reason": null, "reasons": [], "sentence": "Forecast Record recorded 1 settled live pick by MJN1999 before kick-off across 1 match on 25 October 2026. Won 0 of 1 settled live pick at our recorded market prices. Of the 6 predictions we hold for MJN1999, 4 are linked to matches: 4 were recorded by us before kick-off. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "numbers": [ { "label": "Settled live picks", "value": "1", "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick", "note": null }, { "label": "Matches", "value": "1", "anchor": "/methodology/#match", "note": null }, { "label": "Net result", "value": "−100 points", "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement", "note": "100 points per pick" }, { "label": "Return at our recorded market price", "value": "−100.0%", "anchor": "/methodology/#roi", "note": null } ], "limitations": [], "other_series": [], "return_over_time": [], "return_over_time_parts": { "live": { "part": "live", "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "x_axis": "match_date", "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.", "settled_picks": 1, "matches": 1, "match_dates": 1, "period_from": "2026-10-25", "period_to": "2026-10-25", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "final_points_hundredths": -10000, "low": { "date": "2026-10-25", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000, "after_picks": 1 }, "high": { "date": "2026-10-25", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000, "after_picks": 1 }, "line_drawn": false, "steps": [ { "date": "2026-10-25", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000, "n": 1, "picks": 1 } ] }, "archived": null }, "author_response": null, "cite": { "text": "Forecast Record recorded 1 settled live pick by MJN1999 before kick-off across 1 match on 25 October 2026. Won 0 of 1 settled live pick at our recorded market prices. Of the 6 predictions we hold for MJN1999, 4 are linked to matches: 4 were recorded by us before kick-off. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/mjn1999/", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "2.2" }, "origin": { "contract_version": "1", "predictions": 6, "under_review": 0, "no_match_linked": 2, "proven_predictions": 4, "proven_checked": 4, "proven_measured": 1, "proven_dates": 4, "parts": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.", "predictions": 4, "checked": 4, "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "series_code": "market_price", "main": { "settled_picks": 1, "void": 0, "matches": 1, "net_points_hundredths": -10000, "staked_hundredths": 10000, "return_percent": "-100.00", "interval_low": null, "interval_high": null, "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval", "period_from": "2026-10-25", "period_to": "2026-10-25", "method_version": "2.2", "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0", "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.0", "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 1 }, "same_picks": [ { "price": "Author-quoted price", "series_code": "author_price", "picks": 1, "return_main_percent": "-100.00", "return_other_percent": "-100.00", "settled_excluding_void": 1, "net_main_points_hundredths": -10000, "net_other_points_hundredths": -10000, "period_from": "2026-10-25", "period_to": "2026-10-25" } ], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 4, "priced": 1 }, "accuracy": { "picks": 1, "won": 0, "won_percent": "0.0", "implied_percent": "52.4", "left_out": 0, "by_market": [ { "market": "Over/under goals", "won": 0, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "52.4" } ] }, "reviewed_after": { "predictions": 3, "right": 1, "wrong": 1, "other": 1 } }, { "code": "archived", "title": "Archived before kick-off", "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.", "predictions": 0, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null }, { "code": "found_after", "title": "Found after the match", "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.", "predictions": 0, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null } ] }, "live_alongside": null, "headline_record_ids": [ "n-7dd57525ce6968c84092f563" ], "interval_low": null, "interval_high": null, "caption": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price · 100 points per pick · 25 October 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under method v2.2", "record_from": "2026-10-11", "record_to": "2026-11-02" }, "recorded_picks": [ { "record_id": "n-7dd57525ce6968c84092f563", "url": "/authors/mjn1999/#pick-n-7dd57525ce6968c84092f563", "match": "AC Horsens v Sonderjyske", "match_url": "/football/matches/ac-horsens-vs-sonderjyske-2026-10-25/", "kickoff": "2026-10-25T15:00:00.000Z", "competition": "Danish Superliga", "lead_hours": 95.2, "market_code": "total", "author_said": "Over/Under 2.75 goals: under 2.75 at 1.98", "quote": null, "group": "settled", "outcome": "Lost", "claim_outcome": "Lost", "final_score": "5-1", "reason": null, "reason_code": null, "points_hundredths": -10000, "series_code": "market_price", "series_short": "odds snapshot", "author_price": "1.98", "settled_price": "1.9100", "published_at": "2026-10-21T15:14:20.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-21T15:49:40.160Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": true, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null, 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