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1-2 Celta Vigo." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "7ea305103abc1499af85431a580b1ee74798c0951dd0766dc9cf0a3aa1be7395", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "choice": "Celta Vigo", "decimal_odds": null, "odds_role": null, "stake_hundredths": null, "status": "skipped", "status_text": "Not executed: ", "result": null, "result_words": null, "change_hundredths": null, "executed_at": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": { "material_author": "Mikel Alonso", "publisher": "apuestas-deportivas.es", "forecaster": "Mikel Alonso", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the 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"stated": "1.65", "market": "1.54", "difference_percent": "7.1" } ], "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way." }, "record_summary": { "contract_version": "1", "entity_type": "person", "entity_words": "Individual author", "source": { "name": "apuestas-deportivas.es", "url": "https://www.apuestas-deportivas.es/pronostico/celtic-vs-celta-pronostico-europa-league-22-10-2026/" }, "observed_from": "2026-10-22", "observed_to": "2026-10-22", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "state": "settled", "series_code": "market_price", "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price", "restored": false, "headline_kind": "live_snapshot", "headline_part": "live", "settled_picks": 1, "matches": 1, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": 5405, "staked_hundredths": 10000, "return_percent": "54.05", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "period_from": "2026-10-22", "period_to": "2026-10-22", "status": "calculated", "method_version": "2.2", "short_history": true, "reason": null, "reasons": [], "sentence": "Forecast Record recorded 1 settled live pick by Mikel Alonso before kick-off across 1 match on 22 October 2026. Won 1 of 1 settled live pick at our recorded market prices. Of the 6 predictions we hold for Mikel Alonso, 3 are linked to matches: 3 were recorded by us before kick-off. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "numbers": [ { "label": "Settled live picks", "value": "1", "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick", "note": null }, { "label": "Matches", "value": "1", "anchor": "/methodology/#match", "note": null }, { "label": "Net result", "value": "+54.05 points", "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement", "note": "100 points per pick" }, { "label": "Return at our recorded market price", "value": "+54.0%", "anchor": "/methodology/#roi", "note": null } ], "limitations": [], "other_series": [], "return_over_time": [], "return_over_time_parts": { "live": { "part": "live", "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "x_axis": "match_date", "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.", "settled_picks": 1, "matches": 1, "match_dates": 1, "period_from": "2026-10-22", "period_to": "2026-10-22", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "final_points_hundredths": 5405, "low": { "date": "2026-10-22", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 5405, "after_picks": 1 }, "high": { "date": "2026-10-22", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 5405, "after_picks": 1 }, "line_drawn": false, "steps": [ { "date": "2026-10-22", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 5405, "n": 1, "picks": 1 } ] }, "archived": null }, "author_response": null, "cite": { "text": "Forecast Record recorded 1 settled live pick by Mikel Alonso before kick-off across 1 match on 22 October 2026. Won 1 of 1 settled live pick at our recorded market prices. Of the 6 predictions we hold for Mikel Alonso, 3 are linked to matches: 3 were recorded by us before kick-off. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/mikel-alonso/", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "2.2" }, "origin": { "contract_version": "1", "predictions": 6, "under_review": 0, "no_match_linked": 3, "proven_predictions": 3, "proven_checked": 3, "proven_measured": 1, "proven_dates": 1, "parts": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.", "predictions": 3, "checked": 3, "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "series_code": "market_price", "main": { "settled_picks": 1, "void": 0, "matches": 1, "net_points_hundredths": 5405, "staked_hundredths": 10000, "return_percent": "54.05", "interval_low": null, "interval_high": null, "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval", "period_from": "2026-10-22", "period_to": "2026-10-22", "method_version": "2.2", "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0", "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.0", "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 1 }, "same_picks": [ { "price": "Author-quoted price", "series_code": "author_price", "picks": 1, "return_main_percent": "54.05", "return_other_percent": "65.00", "settled_excluding_void": 1, "net_main_points_hundredths": 5405, "net_other_points_hundredths": 6500, "period_from": "2026-10-22", "period_to": "2026-10-22" }, { "price": "Closing price", "series_code": "closing_live", "picks": 1, "return_main_percent": "54.05", "return_other_percent": "52.63", "settled_excluding_void": 1, "net_main_points_hundredths": 5405, "net_other_points_hundredths": 5263, "period_from": "2026-10-22", "period_to": "2026-10-22" } ], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 3, "priced": 1 }, "accuracy": { "picks": 1, "won": 1, "won_percent": "100.0", "implied_percent": "64.9", "left_out": 0, "by_market": [ { "market": "Both teams to score", "won": 1, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "64.9" } ] }, "reviewed_after": { "predictions": 2, "right": 1, "wrong": 1, "other": 0 } }, { "code": "archived", "title": "Archived before kick-off", "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.", "predictions": 0, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null }, { "code": "found_after", "title": "Found after the match", "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.", "predictions": 0, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null } ] }, "live_alongside": null, "headline_record_ids": [ "n-76e0011c07e486465cdf2734" ], "interval_low": null, "interval_high": null, "caption": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price · 100 points per pick · 22 October 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under method v2.2", "record_from": "2026-10-22", "record_to": "2026-10-22" }, "recorded_picks": [ { "record_id": "n-76e0011c07e486465cdf2734", "url": "/authors/mikel-alonso/#pick-n-76e0011c07e486465cdf2734", "match": "Celtic v Celta Vigo", "match_url": "/football/matches/celtic-vs-celta-vigo-2026-10-22/", "kickoff": "2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z", "competition": "UEFA Europa League", "lead_hours": 6.7, "market_code": "both_teams_score", "author_said": "Both teams to score: yes at 1.65", "quote": null, "group": "settled", "outcome": "Won", "claim_outcome": "Won", "final_score": "1-2", "reason": null, "reason_code": null, "points_hundredths": 5405, "series_code": "market_price", "series_short": "odds snapshot", "author_price": "1.65", "settled_price": "1.5405", "published_at": "2026-10-21T20:07:47.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-22T12:20:57.909Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": true, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": { "outcome": "yes", "price": "1.5405", "result": "Won", "points_hundredths": 5405, "picked_favourite": true }, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-76e0011c07e486465cdf2734", "quote_text": "⭐ Apuesta recomendada\n\nAmbos equipos marcan\n\nMejor cuota\n\n1.65", "fragment_from": 1224, "fragment_to": 1286, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "rss", "url": "https://www.apuestas-deportivas.es/pronostico/celtic-vs-celta-pronostico-europa-league-22-10-2026/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Mikel Alonso", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "b594d9e949a0a95585723bafd4723764d527dbc1a3a25b2796465fedf7fbc924", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-21T20:07:47.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-22T12:20:57.909Z", "executed_at": "2026-10-24T00:51:45.044Z", "statement_class": "priced", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": "s-2709a4135d6d", "display_name": "Celtic — Celta Vigo", "competition_name": "UEFA Europa League", "starts_at": "2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/celtic-vs-celta-vigo-2026-10-22/", "scoreline": "1-2", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "Both teams to score", "outcome_label": "yes", "odds_set": { "by_author": "1.65", "our_snapshot": "1.5405", "our_snapshot_at": "2026-10-22T12:19:27.953Z", "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot", "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "win", "simulation_change_hundredths": 5405, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": "ours", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-21T20:07:47.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-10-21T20:07:47.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-22T12:20:57.909Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Both teams to score", "choice": "yes", "author_odds": "1.65", "market_key": "both_teams_score", "choice_key": "yes", "period": "match", "line": null, "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Both teams to score: yes at 1.65" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "win", "scoreline": "1-2", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Won: the final score was Celtic 1-2 Celta Vigo." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "899ee815d1c8569f9210decc8de6832f6a951b07ceb805c94eb1a5f065ea2bd2", "series_key": "author_price", "series_label": "At the author's stated price", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Both teams to score", "choice": "yes", "decimal_odds": "1.65", "odds_role": "author_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "win", "result_words": "Won", "change_hundredths": 6500, "executed_at": "2026-10-24T00:51:42.586Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false }, { "operation_id": "1f3cfefa548be7aedd592b20336458cd69bb3c1c4a008480155b3a44ad390e5c", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Both teams to score", "choice": "yes", "decimal_odds": "1.5405", "odds_role": "market_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "win", "result_words": "Won", "change_hundredths": 5405, "executed_at": "2026-10-24T00:51:45.044Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "settled_pick", "authorship": { "material_author": "Mikel Alonso", "publisher": "apuestas-deportivas.es", "forecaster": "Mikel Alonso", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://www.apuestas-deportivas.es/pronostico/celtic-vs-celta-pronostico-europa-league-22-10-2026/", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null, "choice_words": "yes (Both teams to score)" } }, { "record_id": "n-608eb289e140091035f683a5", "url": "/authors/mikel-alonso/#pick-n-608eb289e140091035f683a5", "match": "Celtic v Celta Vigo", "match_url": "/football/matches/celtic-vs-celta-vigo-2026-10-22/", "kickoff": "2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z", "competition": "UEFA Europa League", "lead_hours": 6.7, "market_code": "player_to_score", "author_said": "Player to score: Ferran Jutglà Blanch to score", "quote": null, "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": "Lost", "final_score": "1-2", "reason": "graded against the result: wrong", "reason_code": "not_checked", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-21T20:07:47.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-22T12:20:57.909Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-608eb289e140091035f683a5", "quote_text": "En el Celta estará Ferrán Jutglà como jugador referencia en ataque, quien, además, creo que marcará gol en este partido, después de hacerlo en la última jornada frente al Alavés.", "fragment_from": 7578, "fragment_to": 7756, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "rss", "url": "https://www.apuestas-deportivas.es/pronostico/celtic-vs-celta-pronostico-europa-league-22-10-2026/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Mikel Alonso", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "b594d9e949a0a95585723bafd4723764d527dbc1a3a25b2796465fedf7fbc924", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-21T20:07:47.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-22T12:20:57.909Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "unpriced", "status": "ambiguous", "cause": "", "cause_code": "not_checked", "event": { "event_id": "s-2709a4135d6d", "display_name": "Celtic — Celta Vigo", "competition_name": "UEFA Europa League", "starts_at": "2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/celtic-vs-celta-vigo-2026-10-22/", "scoreline": "1-2", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "Player to score", "outcome_label": "Ferran Jutglà Blanch to score", "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": "loss", "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-21T20:07:47.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-10-21T20:07:47.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-22T12:20:57.909Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Player to score", "choice": "Ferran Jutglà Blanch to score", "author_odds": null, "market_key": "player_to_score", "choice_key": "yes", "period": "match", "line": null, "subject": "player_goals", "in_words": "Player to score: Ferran Jutglà Blanch to score" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "loss", "scoreline": "1-2", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Lost — Ferran Jutglà Blanch scored 0 goals; the final score was Celtic 1-2 Celta Vigo." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "0a7388b24b0a9d74e48a89b31bd1ba476dd25ba20d7aa7b9ab8595dcd7648fac", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Player to score", "choice": "Ferran Jutglà Blanch to score", "decimal_odds": null, "odds_role": null, "stake_hundredths": null, "status": "skipped", "status_text": "Not executed: ", "result": null, "result_words": null, "change_hundredths": null, "executed_at": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": { "material_author": "Mikel Alonso", "publisher": "apuestas-deportivas.es", "forecaster": "Mikel Alonso", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://www.apuestas-deportivas.es/pronostico/celtic-vs-celta-pronostico-europa-league-22-10-2026/", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null, "choice_words": "Ferran Jutglà Blanch to score" } }, { "record_id": 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