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 "heading": "Miguel Alvim: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "Verified record: 31 settled picks by Miguel Alvim recorded before kick-off across 18 matches, 10 Oct 2026 – 4 Nov 2026: +40.0% at our recorded market prices.",
 "first_paragraph": {
  "body": "Forecast Record recorded 31 settled live picks by Miguel Alvim before kick-off across 18 matches between 10 October and 4 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned +40.0% on the total staked. Of the 95 predictions we hold for Miguel Alvim, 80 are linked to matches: 76 were recorded by us before kick-off and 4 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "key_number": "+40.0%",
  "data": "2026-11-07",
  "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot",
  "brand": "Forecast Record"
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 },
 "data_date": "2026-11-07T18:11:05.522Z",
 "built_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
 "lastmod": "2026-11-08T02:12:33.000Z",
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 "dependency_group": "author:e-c53938bd8d26ad3720802a07",
 "release_id": "20261107-195223",
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 "modules": {
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 "affiliate_block": {
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  "request_url": "/partnery/moi",
  "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.",
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 "restrictions": {
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 "entity": {
  "id": "e-c53938bd8d26ad3720802a07",
  "public_name": "Miguel Alvim",
  "tracker_number": 1631,
  "status": "active",
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  "observation_period": {
   "since": "2026-09-29",
   "until": "2026-11-04"
  },
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    "medium": "website",
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 "headline_number": {
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   "window_kind": "90d",
   "window_from": "2026-08-09",
   "window_to": "2026-11-07",
   "amount": "40.0265",
   "unit": "percent",
   "data_status": "calculated",
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   "n_bets": 31,
   "n_events": 18,
   "n_void": 0,
   "ci_low": "-0.6690",
   "ci_high": "82.5038",
   "ci_method": "cluster_bootstrap",
   "price_source": "market_price",
   "coverage_percent": "87.10",
   "breakdown": [],
   "methodology_version": "2.2",
   "data_date": "2026-11-07T18:11:05.522Z",
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  "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 31 settled picks across 18 matches",
  "average_odds": "2.14",
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  "odds_from_snapshot": 4
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   {
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    "bankroll_hundredths": 1041630,
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   {
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    "bankroll_hundredths": 1043630,
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   {
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   {
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   {
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  ],
  "top_ups": [],
  "rule": "When the balance falls below 100 points and no bets are open, 10000 points are added; the remaining balance is kept. While bets are open we wait for settlement.",
  "series_key": "market_price",
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 "simulations": [],
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  "detected": 198,
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   {
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   {
    "cause": "other reading",
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   },
   {
    "cause": "read after the match, from archived pages",
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   },
   {
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   },
   {
    "cause": "National-team matches",
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   {
    "cause": "outside the method",
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   "opinions": 9,
   "not_about_a_match": 94,
   "unclassified": 0
  },
  "predictions": 95,
  "predictions_restored": 3,
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  "qualifying_picks_restored": 0,
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  "settled_picks_restored": 0,
  "series_list": [
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    "void": 0,
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    "stakes_hundredths": [
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    ],
    "methodologies": [
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    ],
    "display_name": "At an independent odds snapshot"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "author_price",
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    "stakes_hundredths": [
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    ],
    "methodologies": [
     "2.1",
     "2.2"
    ],
    "display_name": "At the author's stated price"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "derived_series",
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    "stakes_hundredths": [
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    ],
    "methodologies": [
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    ],
    "display_name": "Forecast Record reconstruction from the predicted score"
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  ],
  "gaps": [
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   },
   {
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   },
   {
    "code_name": "ambiguous",
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   },
   {
    "code_name": "after_match",
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   },
   {
    "code_name": "disputed_reading",
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   },
   {
    "code_name": "outside_coverage",
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   },
   {
    "code_name": "not_admitted",
    "cause": "outside the method",
    "figure": 1
   }
  ],
  "duplicates": 0,
  "junk": {
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  "dictionary_url": "/methodology/#words"
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-bd93a3d0046a1c79626f3ea2",
   "quote_text": "winger Bukayo Saka, whose absence takes away one of their main attacking options",
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   "published_at": "2026-11-04T17:47:00.000Z",
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   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
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   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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  },
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   "stake_hundredths": null,
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "dates": {
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    "fragment_basis": "element",
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   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "no_match_linked",
   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
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   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
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   "settlements": [],
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   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-5156c692cc8ad05539e9ac9b",
   "url": "/authors/miguel-alvim/picks/6/#pick-n-5156c692cc8ad05539e9ac9b",
   "quote_text": "Anytime Goalscorer Pick: Eberechi Eze (+225) at BetMGM",
   "fragment_from": 4610,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "speaker": "Miguel Alvim",
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   "detected_at": "2026-11-04T17:51:15.858Z",
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    "amount_words": null,
    "interval_words": null,
    "title_tier": "dated_record",
    "status": "active",
    "status_reason": null,
    "event_at": "2026-10-25",
    "evidence_through": "2026-10-25",
    "earned_at": "2026-10-21",
    "published_at": "2026-10-26",
    "visible_until": "2027-02-22",
    "badge_label": "6/7 · week of 19 Oct",
    "scope_words": null,
    "title_id": "zk-1d5292ed85a71802d687",
    "evidence_items": [
     {
      "nid": "n-c5cbe5f5e1930f22687e9554",
      "data": "2026-10-19",
      "match": "Getafe v Rayo Vallecano",
      "said_text": "1X2, match result: draw at 3.1",
      "outcome_label": "right",
      "evidence_price": 2.9,
      "comparison": "17 other tipsters and sources on this match, 9 right (9 named draw, 4 named away win, 4 named home win)",
      "url": "/authors/miguel-alvim/picks/3/#pick-n-c5cbe5f5e1930f22687e9554"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-0ca8bbb6c43b00497f0d510f",
      "data": "2026-10-20",
      "match": "Liverpool v Villarreal",
      "said_text": "1X2, match result: Liverpool at 1.56",
      "outcome_label": "right",
      "evidence_price": 1.49,
      "comparison": "36 other tipsters and sources on this match, 36 right (36 named home win)",
      "url": "/authors/miguel-alvim/picks/3/#pick-n-0ca8bbb6c43b00497f0d510f"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-eda8c2bbebdcfadf77257e03",
      "data": "2026-10-21",
      "match": "Como v Manchester United",
      "said_text": "1X2, match result: Como at 2.27",
      "outcome_label": "right",
      "evidence_price": 2.35,
      "comparison": "29 other tipsters and sources on this match, 17 right (17 named home win, 8 named draw, 4 named away win)",
      "url": "/authors/miguel-alvim/picks/4/#pick-n-eda8c2bbebdcfadf77257e03"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-a609bf736f56d9faae0e8140",
      "data": "2026-10-21",
      "match": "Club Brugge KV v RC Lens",
      "said_text": "1X2, match result: Club Brugge KV at 2.22",
      "outcome_label": "right",
      "evidence_price": 1.73,
      "comparison": "21 other tipsters and sources on this match, 18 right (18 named home win, 2 named draw, 1 named away win)",
      "url": "/authors/miguel-alvim/picks/4/#pick-n-a609bf736f56d9faae0e8140"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-62ad2ab77870a692cb43711e",
      "data": "2026-10-21",
      "match": "Real Madrid v RB Leipzig",
      "said_text": "1X2, match result: Real Madrid at 1.54",
      "outcome_label": "right",
      "evidence_price": 1.23,
      "comparison": "33 other tipsters and sources on this match, 33 right (33 named home win)",
      "url": "/authors/miguel-alvim/picks/3/#pick-n-62ad2ab77870a692cb43711e"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-cdc88ea1fefde93d14514ed1",
      "data": "2026-10-21",
      "match": "Inter v Shakhtar Donetsk",
      "said_text": "1X2, match result: Inter at 1.28",
      "outcome_label": "right",
      "evidence_price": 1.25,
      "comparison": "18 other tipsters and sources on this match, 16 right (16 named home win, 1 named draw, 1 named away win)",
      "url": "/authors/miguel-alvim/picks/4/#pick-n-cdc88ea1fefde93d14514ed1"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-6e7a0f0e538023f2992640ed",
      "data": "2026-10-21",
      "match": "FC Bayern München v Arsenal",
      "said_text": "1X2, match result: FC Bayern München at 2.17",
      "outcome_label": "wrong",
      "evidence_price": 2.32,
      "comparison": "27 other tipsters and sources on this match, 7 right (16 named home win, 7 named draw, 4 named away win)",
      "url": "/authors/miguel-alvim/picks/4/#pick-n-6e7a0f0e538023f2992640ed"
     }
    ],
    "evidence_total": 7,
    "badge": {
     "variants": [
      {
       "size": "l",
       "theme": "light",
       "width": 992,
       "height": 40,
       "url": "/b/e-c53938bd8d26ad3720802a07/p-01-w-1d5292ed85-event-l-light.svg"
      },
      {
       "size": "l",
       "theme": "dark",
       "width": 992,
       "height": 40,
       "url": "/b/e-c53938bd8d26ad3720802a07/p-01-w-1d5292ed85-event-l-dark.svg"
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      {
       "size": "m",
       "theme": "light",
       "width": 730,
       "height": 28,
       "url": "/b/e-c53938bd8d26ad3720802a07/p-01-w-1d5292ed85-event-m-light.svg"
      },
      {
       "size": "m",
       "theme": "dark",
       "width": 730,
       "height": 28,
       "url": "/b/e-c53938bd8d26ad3720802a07/p-01-w-1d5292ed85-event-m-dark.svg"
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      {
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       "theme": "light",
       "width": 569,
       "height": 20,
       "url": "/b/e-c53938bd8d26ad3720802a07/p-01-w-1d5292ed85-event-s-light.svg"
      },
      {
       "size": "s",
       "theme": "dark",
       "width": 569,
       "height": 20,
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     ],
     "card_url": "/b/e-c53938bd8d26ad3720802a07/p-01-w-1d5292ed85-event-card.svg"
    },
    "profile_anchor": "title-1d5292ed85a7",
    "chance": {
     "contract_version": 1,
     "kind": "at_least",
     "priced": 6,
     "unpriced": 1,
     "hits": 5,
     "probability": 0.263402,
     "one_in": 4,
     "log10": -0.58,
     "words": "1 in 4",
     "rule": "probability of at least this many correct picks if each pick came in with its market probability (1/price); exact Poisson-binomial",
     "note": "market prices include the bookmaker margin, so the chance is slightly overstated — a cautious figure"
    },
    "embed_anchor": "title-week-record"
   }
  ],
  "publication_mode": "top20",
  "empty_reason": null,
  "rules_version": "catalog-1",
  "insufficient": [],
  "badges_on_page": 0,
  "header_titles": [
   {
    "title_id": "zk-1d5292ed85a71802d687",
    "code_name": "P-01",
    "title_tier": "dated_record",
    "badge_label": "6/7 · week of 19 Oct",
    "body": "6/7 result calls right · week of 19 Oct 2026",
    "tier": null,
    "provenance": "live",
    "anchor_id": "title-1d5292ed85a7",
    "event_at": "2026-10-25",
    "url": "/titles/p-01-week-record/#zk-1d5292ed85a71802d687"
   }
  ],
  "record_origin": [
   {
    "portion": "live",
    "n": 70,
    "body": "70 recorded before kick-off · since 3 Oct 2026"
   },
   {
    "portion": "found_after",
    "n": 1,
    "body": "1 found after the match"
   }
  ],
  "recent_record": [
   {
    "code_name": "P-01",
    "body": "6/7 result calls right · week of 19 Oct 2026",
    "event_at": "2026-10-25",
    "url": null,
    "provenance": "live",
    "anchor_id": "title-1d5292ed85a7"
   }
  ],
  "record_details": [
   {
    "code_name": "M-11",
    "body": "Most recorded: Goals over/under · 24 matches",
    "details_words": "Goals over/under 16/25 (24 matches); Handicaps 5/15 (15 matches); Goalscorer picks 6/15 (12 matches); Match result (1X2) 9/11 (11 matches); Team goals and win to nil 2/3 (3 matches); Correct score 0/1 (1 match)",
    "url": null,
    "provenance": "live",
    "display_name": "Most recorded bet type",
    "rule_href": "/titles/m-11-most-recorded-bet-type/"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "CS-01",
    "body": "Exact scores · 0/1",
    "details_words": null,
    "url": null,
    "provenance": "live",
    "display_name": "Exact scores",
    "rule_href": "/titles/cs-01-exact-scores/"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "X-01",
    "body": "Longest price: correct at 2.90 · 19 Oct 2026",
    "details_words": "Getafe v Rayo Vallecano · Draw at 2.90 (our pre-match price)",
    "url": "/authors/miguel-alvim/picks/3/#pick-n-c5cbe5f5e1930f22687e9554",
    "provenance": "live",
    "display_name": "Correct at a long price",
    "rule_href": "/titles/x-01-correct-at-a-long-price/"
   }
  ],
  "history": []
 },
 "retro": null,
 "late": {
  "selected": 1,
  "by_proof": {
   "rss": 1
  },
  "double": 0,
  "span_from": "2026-09-20",
  "span_to": "2026-09-20",
  "body": "1 pick was published before kick-off and found by us only after the match had started. The time of publication is evidenced (the publisher's feed date: 1). Each is priced at the market price in our own price history at that moment; the author’s own stated price, where given, is a separate line. These picks are never mixed with the record kept before kick-off and do not enter rankings or the points bankroll. Our price history starts on 26 September 2026; for earlier picks the price at publication is unknown, and the closing price is shown on its own line, outside this series.",
  "series_list": [
   {
    "code_name": "publication_market_price",
    "display_name": "Market price at the evidenced time of publication",
    "n": 0,
    "roi": null,
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "price_unknown": 1,
    "waiting": 0,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "methodology_version": "late-1.0"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "publication_author_price",
    "display_name": "Author's own stated price",
    "n": 1,
    "roi": "-100.0000",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "price_unknown": 0,
    "waiting": 0,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "late-1.0"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "closing_for_reference",
    "display_name": "Closing price (not part of this series)",
    "n": 1,
    "roi": "-100.0000",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "price_unknown": 0,
    "waiting": 0,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "late-1.0"
   }
  ],
  "methodology_version": "late-1.0"
 },
 "price_vs_market": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "threshold_percent": "5",
  "rows": [
   {
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "basis_words": "our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off)",
    "basis_short": "Our market price when we first recorded the pick",
    "compared": 28,
    "above": 14,
    "above_share_percent": "50.0",
    "below": 2,
    "within": 12,
    "median_difference_percent": "4.7",
    "not_comparable": 0,
    "disputed": 0,
    "status": "calculated"
   }
  ],
  "examples": [
   {
    "url": "/authors/miguel-alvim/picks/3/#pick-n-62ad2ab77870a692cb43711e",
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "stated": "1.54",
    "market": "1.22",
    "difference_percent": "26.0"
   },
   {
    "url": "/authors/miguel-alvim/picks/4/#pick-n-a609bf736f56d9faae0e8140",
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "stated": "2.22",
    "market": "1.88",
    "difference_percent": "18.0"
   }
  ],
  "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way."
 },
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "sportsbettingdime.com",
   "url": "https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/soccer/slavia-praha-vs-arsenal-picks-goalscorer-predictions-nov-4/"
  },
  "observed_from": "2026-09-29",
  "observed_to": "2026-11-04",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "market_price",
  "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price",
  "restored": false,
  "headline_kind": "live_snapshot",
  "headline_part": "live",
  "settled_picks": 31,
  "matches": 18,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": 124082,
  "staked_hundredths": 310000,
  "return_percent": "40.03",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2026-10-10",
  "period_to": "2026-11-04",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "2.2",
  "short_history": false,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record recorded 31 settled live picks by Miguel Alvim before kick-off across 18 matches between 10 October and 4 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned +40.0% on the total staked. Of the 95 predictions we hold for Miguel Alvim, 80 are linked to matches: 76 were recorded by us before kick-off and 4 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled live picks",
    "value": "31",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "18",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "+1,240.82 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "value": "+40.0%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": "95% interval −0.7% to +82.5%"
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [
   {
    "date": "2026-10-10",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -21833,
    "n": 4
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-19",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -17071,
    "n": 5
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-20",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -1013,
    "n": 7
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-21",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 39495,
    "n": 16
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-24",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 36392,
    "n": 18
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-31",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 55492,
    "n": 21
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-03",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 66082,
    "n": 28
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-04",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 124082,
    "n": 31
   }
  ],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": {
    "part": "live",
    "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.",
    "settled_picks": 31,
    "matches": 18,
    "match_dates": 8,
    "period_from": "2026-10-10",
    "period_to": "2026-11-04",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": 124082,
    "low": {
     "date": "2026-10-10",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -21833,
     "after_picks": 4
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2026-11-04",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 124082,
     "after_picks": 31
    },
    "line_drawn": true,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2026-10-10",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -21833,
      "n": 4,
      "picks": 4
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-19",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -17071,
      "n": 5,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-20",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -1013,
      "n": 7,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-21",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 39495,
      "n": 16,
      "picks": 9
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-24",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 36392,
      "n": 18,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-31",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 55492,
      "n": 21,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-03",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 66082,
      "n": 28,
      "picks": 7
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-04",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 124082,
      "n": 31,
      "picks": 3
     }
    ]
   },
   "archived": null
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record recorded 31 settled live picks by Miguel Alvim before kick-off across 18 matches between 10 October and 4 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned +40.0% on the total staked. Of the 95 predictions we hold for Miguel Alvim, 80 are linked to matches: 76 were recorded by us before kick-off and 4 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/miguel-alvim/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "2.2"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 95,
   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 15,
   "proven_predictions": 76,
   "proven_checked": 70,
   "proven_measured": 32,
   "proven_dates": 14,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 76,
     "checked": 70,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 31,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 18,
      "net_points_hundredths": 124082,
      "staked_hundredths": 310000,
      "return_percent": "40.03",
      "interval_low": "-0.67",
      "interval_high": "82.50",
      "interval_note": null,
      "period_from": "2026-10-10",
      "period_to": "2026-11-04",
      "method_version": "2.2",
      "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0",
      "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.4",
      "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 20
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "author_price",
       "picks": 27,
       "return_main_percent": "54.04",
       "return_other_percent": "59.44",
       "settled_excluding_void": 27,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 145915,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 160500,
       "period_from": "2026-10-19",
       "period_to": "2026-11-04"
      },
      {
       "price": "Closing price",
       "series_code": "closing_live",
       "picks": 31,
       "return_main_percent": "40.03",
       "return_other_percent": "45.42",
       "settled_excluding_void": 31,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 124082,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 140817,
       "period_from": "2026-10-10",
       "period_to": "2026-11-04"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 1,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": 0.0,
      "outcome_checked": 1,
      "outcome_hits": 1,
      "outcome_rate": 100.0,
      "baseline_matches": 1,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 1,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 1,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": 100.0,
      "favourite_hits": 1,
      "favourite_rate": 100.0,
      "price_basis": "our pre-match snapshot",
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": [
       "Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to this score forecast.",
       "0 of 1 score forecast named the exact score.",
       "The result implied by the named score was right in 1 of 1 match; the market favourite was right in 1 of the same match.",
       "The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest price in our own odds snapshot taken before kick-off.",
       "The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win)."
      ]
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 70,
      "priced": 31
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 31,
      "won": 21,
      "won_percent": "67.7",
      "implied_percent": "53.2",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 7,
        "picks": 12,
        "implied_percent": "56.7"
       },
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 7,
        "picks": 8,
        "implied_percent": "58.3"
       },
       {
        "market": "Player to score",
        "won": 5,
        "picks": 7,
        "implied_percent": "38.4"
       },
       {
        "market": "Asian handicap",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 3,
        "implied_percent": "54.8"
       },
       {
        "market": "Team goals",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "69.6"
       }
      ]
     },
     "reviewed_after": {
      "predictions": 35,
      "right": 16,
      "wrong": 19,
      "other": 0
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
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   "group": "excluded",
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   "reason_code": "after_match",
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   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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 "pagination": {
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 },
 "title_tag": "Miguel Alvim Predictions: Verified Record, Results and Sources",
 "calculator": {
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 },
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 "number_changes": [
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    "composition_hash": "313af7921db8938b83b6df4b3b70b38d8d17eb3e7a2fad0cc8ba9ed9c9ccea8a",
    "text": "+26.02% on 16 settled picks across 11 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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    "return_percent": "18.61",
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    "composition_hash": "d14a7394d8942f27f526819689b63f3f45e92995aada68b7295b181d06527d23",
    "text": "+18.61% on 17 settled picks across 12 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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   "url": "/authors/miguel-alvim/",
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    "composition_hash": "9cecf43ea70c6166684d634864a6f7b6583a67b31b94c22f99e2fd3ba8025b68",
    "text": "+23.16% on 15 settled picks across 10 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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   "after": {
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    "return_percent": "26.02",
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    "composition_hash": "313af7921db8938b83b6df4b3b70b38d8d17eb3e7a2fad0cc8ba9ed9c9ccea8a",
    "text": "+26.02% on 16 settled picks across 11 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous data version.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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    "removed": 0,
    "changed": 0
   },
   "correction_id": null
  },
  {
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   "at": "2026-10-23T01:17:07.717Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-23.1",
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   "url": "/authors/miguel-alvim/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
   "category_words": "Coverage extended",
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    "matches": 3,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
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    "composition_hash": "c4a4e682b935ca524215d6f633ea42151fd464005498db5a7a8c2a8b8eb9268a",
    "text": "−57.75 points on 6 settled picks across 3 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
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    "return_percent": "23.16",
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    "matches": 10,
    "void": 0,
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    "text": "+23.16% on 15 settled picks across 10 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 9 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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   },
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  {
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   "at": "2026-10-22T03:02:07.338Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-22.1",
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   "category": "coverage_extended",
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    "composition_hash": "ea2827c093804c93d20d7cd49ec335aea5b8df769e849218b648f5ee21ab1936",
    "text": "−218.33 points on 4 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
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    "composition_hash": "c4a4e682b935ca524215d6f633ea42151fd464005498db5a7a8c2a8b8eb9268a",
    "text": "−57.75 points on 6 settled picks across 3 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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   },
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  {
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   "at": "2026-10-10T23:53:02.873Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-10.4",
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    "composition_hash": "ea2827c093804c93d20d7cd49ec335aea5b8df769e849218b648f5ee21ab1936",
    "text": "−218.33 points on 4 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
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  "refreshed_at": "2026-11-04",
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 "trust": {
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  "days": 33,
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 "colleagues": null,
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 "data_changes": {
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  "records_corrected": 1,
  "last_correction_at": "2026-10-14T02:01:02.070Z",
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 ]
}