{ "schema_name": "page", "schema_version": "2.0", "page_type": "author", "url": "/authors/michal-ciernik/", "canonical": "/authors/michal-ciernik/", "language": "en", "hreflang": [], "translations": [], "heading": "Michal Čiernik: Football Prediction Record", "description": "Michal Čiernik: 23 statements recorded by Forecast Record. Every statement with its source and the rule applied to it.", "first_paragraph": { "body": "Forecast Record has recorded 23 statements by Michal Čiernik, including 8 predictions. Of the 8 predictions we hold for Michal Čiernik, 4 are linked to matches: 3 were recorded by us before kick-off and 1 first found after the match. The statements are listed below; as of 7 November 2026.", "key_number": "23", "data": "2026-11-07", "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot", "brand": "Forecast Record" }, "indexable": false, "noindex_reason": "too_few_settled", "indexing_threshold": { "settled_count": 0, "date_count": 3, "required_settled": 10, "required_dates": 2 }, "data_date": "2026-11-07T17:50:01.108Z", "built_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "lastmod": "2026-11-08T02:12:33.000Z", "content_hash": null, "meaning_hash": "aeddf6acd86882586fdf1728d353febffe356112c3ca0af382be3cb809a17704", "dependency_group": "author:e-1d69e8bb78a9b562bec7c7b7", "release_id": "20261107-195223", "markup": [ { "type_code": "WebPage", "allowed": true, "cause": null }, { "type_code": "Organization", "allowed": true, "cause": null }, { "type_code": "Person", "allowed": true, "cause": null } ], "exports": [ { "type_code": "json", "url": "/authors/michal-ciernik/index.json", "bytes": null }, { "type_code": "csv", "url": "/authors/michal-ciernik/picks.csv", "bytes": null } ], "modules": { "affiliate": true, "api": true, "compare_yourself": false }, "affiliate_block": { "container": true, "request_url": "/partnery/moi", "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.", "page_category": "author" }, "restrictions": { "name_withdrawn": false, "tracker_number": null, "withdrawn_quotes": [], "removed_at": null, "cause": null, "suspended_records": [], "withdrawal_log_number": 0 }, "page_links": { "methodology": "/methodology/", "right_of_reply": "/right-of-reply/", "source_coverage": "/coverage/", "corrections_log": "/corrections/", "api": "/api/", "claim": "/claim/" }, "entity": { "id": "e-1d69e8bb78a9b562bec7c7b7", "public_name": "Michal Čiernik", "tracker_number": 4938, "status": "active", "inactive_since": null, "verified_creator": false, "observation_period": { "since": "2026-10-17", "until": "2026-10-30" }, "platform_list": [ { "medium": "website", "handle": null, "url": null, "link_confirmed": false, "show": true } ], "comment": null }, "headline_number": { "metric": { "metric_id": "p-e-1d69e8bb78a9b562bec7c7b7-roi-market-price-90d-z99", "code_name": "roi_market_price", "display_name": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot", "window_kind": "90d", "window_from": "2026-08-09", "window_to": "2026-11-07", "amount": null, "unit": "percent", "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "no pick in this window has been settled", "n_bets": 0, "n_events": 0, "n_void": null, "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "ci_method": "not_estimated", "price_source": "market_price", "coverage_percent": null, "breakdown": [], "methodology_version": "2.2", "data_date": "2026-11-07T17:50:01.108Z", "enough_for_ranking": false, "series_uid": null, "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot" }, "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 0 settled picks across 0 matches", "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, "metrics": [], "history": [], "simulation": { "series_key": null, "series_label": "No level stake placed", "bankroll_hundredths": 1000000, "reserve_hundredths": 0, "issued_total_hundredths": 1000000, "initial_hundredths": 1000000, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "top_up_count": 0, "profit_hundredths": 0, "rewards_off": null, "data_points": [], "top_ups": [], "rule": "Every tracked author starts with 10,000 points and stakes 100 per qualifying pick. This author has 0 settled bets, so the bankroll stands at its starting value." }, "simulations": [], "completeness": { "detected": 23, "recognised": 8, "accepted": 3, "executed": 0, "calculated": 0, "gaps": [ { "cause": "not_supported", "figure": 4 }, { "cause": "other reading", "figure": 2 }, { "cause": "no_quote", "figure": 1 }, { "cause": "read after the match, from archived pages", "figure": 1 } ] }, "record_counts": { "dictionary_version": "1", "statements": 23, "of_them_restored": 4, "not_predictions": { "opinions": 5, "not_about_a_match": 10, "unclassified": 0 }, "predictions": 8, "predictions_restored": 1, "matches": 3, "admitted": 3, "qualifying_picks": 0, "qualifying_picks_restored": 0, "settled_picks": 0, "settled_picks_restored": 0, "series_list": [], "gaps": [ { "code_name": "not_supported", "cause": "not_supported", "figure": 4 }, { "code_name": "ambiguous", "cause": "other reading", "figure": 2 }, { "code_name": "no_quote", "cause": "no_quote", "figure": 1 }, { "code_name": "after_match", "cause": "read after the match, from archived pages", "figure": 1 } ], "duplicates": 0, "junk": {}, "dictionary_url": "/methodology/#words" }, "evidence_items": [ { "observation_id": "n-6e9c1c46603c163bcf399d40", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-6e9c1c46603c163bcf399d40", "quote_text": "Livestream z dnešného zápasu nájdete zadarmo v Tipsporte.", "fragment_from": 935, "fragment_to": 992, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.betarena.sk/rubriky/futbal/slovensko/pohronie-slovan-bratislava-b-monacobet-liga-online-2026-10-30_11913.html", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Michal Čiernik", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "7b78397994febcbe5903d18b5cf43fa8cb714bd12a14691cafe6001b4b82d030", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-30T15:16:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-30T15:22:53.527Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-30T15:16:00.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-10-30T15:16:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-30T15:22:53.527Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-e5220baa6cad29d709b58d73", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-e5220baa6cad29d709b58d73", "quote_text": "Rezerva úradujúceho majstra má za sebou dve bratislavské derby proti Petržalke a Interu.", "fragment_from": 1920, "fragment_to": 2008, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.betarena.sk/rubriky/futbal/slovensko/pohronie-slovan-bratislava-b-monacobet-liga-online-2026-10-30_11913.html", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Michal Čiernik", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "7b78397994febcbe5903d18b5cf43fa8cb714bd12a14691cafe6001b4b82d030", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-30T15:16:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-30T15:22:53.527Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-30T15:16:00.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-10-30T15:16:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-30T15:22:53.527Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-ce9026d9d9cd6744037ee360", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-ce9026d9d9cd6744037ee360", "quote_text": "Úvodný zápas bez svojho kolegu proti Šamorínu nezvládol a prehral 1:2.", "fragment_from": 1489, "fragment_to": 1559, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.betarena.sk/rubriky/futbal/slovensko/pohronie-slovan-bratislava-b-monacobet-liga-online-2026-10-30_11913.html", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Michal Čiernik", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "7b78397994febcbe5903d18b5cf43fa8cb714bd12a14691cafe6001b4b82d030", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-30T15:16:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-30T15:22:53.527Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-30T15:16:00.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-10-30T15:16:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-30T15:22:53.527Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-d7b6e8714174a4f157cfa2a3", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-d7b6e8714174a4f157cfa2a3", "quote_text": "Po odchode Pavla Gregora, ktorý uprednostnil volanie Komárna, zostalo Pohronie pod krídlami", "fragment_from": 1370, "fragment_to": 1461, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.betarena.sk/rubriky/futbal/slovensko/pohronie-slovan-bratislava-b-monacobet-liga-online-2026-10-30_11913.html", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Michal Čiernik", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "7b78397994febcbe5903d18b5cf43fa8cb714bd12a14691cafe6001b4b82d030", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-30T15:16:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-30T15:22:53.527Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-30T15:16:00.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-10-30T15:16:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-30T15:22:53.527Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-d6805fa120543b35a6cac8ff", "url": "/authors/michal-ciernik/#pick-n-d6805fa120543b35a6cac8ff", "quote_text": "✅ TIP redakcie: Pohronie vyhrá (kurz 1,67 v Tipsporte)", "fragment_from": 2642, "fragment_to": 2696, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.betarena.sk/rubriky/futbal/slovensko/pohronie-slovan-bratislava-b-monacobet-liga-online-2026-10-30_11913.html", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Michal Čiernik", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "7b78397994febcbe5903d18b5cf43fa8cb714bd12a14691cafe6001b4b82d030", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-30T15:16:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-30T15:22:53.527Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "priced", "status": "ambiguous", "cause": "", "cause_code": "not_checked", "event": { "event_id": "s-ac75967a6c37", "display_name": "FK Pohronie — Slovan Bratislava B", "competition_name": "Slovakia 2. Liga", "starts_at": "2026-10-30T16:00:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/fk-pohronie-vs-slovan-bratislava-b-2026-10-30/", "scoreline": "1-1", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "outcome_label": "FK Pohronie", "odds_set": { "by_author": "1.67", "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": "loss", "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-30T15:16:00.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-10-30T15:16:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-30T15:22:53.527Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "1X2, match result", "choice": "FK Pohronie", "author_odds": "1.67", "market_key": "1x2", "choice_key": "1", "period": "match", "line": null, "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "1X2, match result: FK Pohronie at 1.67" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "loss", "scoreline": "1-1", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Lost: the final score was FK Pohronie 1-1 Slovan Bratislava B." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "7c1e1af9157197ca91eeec47ae351d33273b4927b0af876159715034439a5012", "series_key": "author_price", "series_label": "At the author's stated price", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "choice": "FK Pohronie", "decimal_odds": null, "odds_role": null, "stake_hundredths": null, "status": "skipped", "status_text": "Not executed: ", "result": null, "result_words": null, "change_hundredths": null, "executed_at": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false }, { "operation_id": "895497014d678909d20812d76eef5bb87e42ddf2cb00f2c6be76a4b9b0295a1f", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "choice": "FK Pohronie", "decimal_odds": null, "odds_role": null, "stake_hundredths": null, "status": "skipped", "status_text": "Not executed: ", "result": null, "result_words": null, "change_hundredths": null, "executed_at": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": { "material_author": "Michal Čiernik", "publisher": "BetArena.sk", "forecaster": "Michal Čiernik", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://www.betarena.sk/rubriky/futbal/slovensko/pohronie-slovan-bratislava-b-monacobet-liga-online-2026-10-30_11913.html", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-4cd7f92d4322cf7992b95a0e", "url": "/authors/michal-ciernik/#pick-n-4cd7f92d4322cf7992b95a0e", "quote_text": "✅ TIP redakcie: Lučenec neprehrá (kurz 1,55 v Tipsporte)", "fragment_from": 2717, "fragment_to": 2773, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.betarena.sk/rubriky/futbal/liga-majstrov/lucenec-minerva-liga-majstrov-futsal-online-2026-10-29_11905.html", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Michal Čiernik", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "732e852d5071c84b7de628aac79f2c2212d120805e435fb7e215dcd7365cf01e", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-29T17:03:19.262Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "priced", "status": "not_supported", "cause": "", "cause_code": "not_supported", "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:00.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-10-29T17:00:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-29T17:03:19.262Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": 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"none", "series_code": null, "series": null, "restored": false, "headline_kind": null, "headline_part": null, "settled_picks": 0, "matches": 0, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": null, "staked_hundredths": null, "return_percent": null, "stake_per_pick_hundredths": null, "period_from": null, "period_to": null, "status": "unknown", "method_version": null, "short_history": true, "reason": "4 predictions are in other markets; 2 predictions are unstaked; 1 prediction was read after the match, from archived pages and 1 prediction for other reasons", "reasons": [ { "code": "not_supported", "predictions": 4, "words": "other market" }, { "code": "not_checked", "predictions": 2, "words": "unstaked" }, { "code": "after_match", "predictions": 1, "words": "read after the match" }, { "code": "disputed_reading", "predictions": 1, "words": "unstaked" } ], "sentence": "Forecast Record has recorded 23 statements by Michal Čiernik, including 8 predictions. 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"result_words": null, "change_hundredths": null, "executed_at": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false }, { "operation_id": "895497014d678909d20812d76eef5bb87e42ddf2cb00f2c6be76a4b9b0295a1f", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "choice": "FK Pohronie", "decimal_odds": null, "odds_role": null, "stake_hundredths": null, "status": "skipped", "status_text": "Not executed: ", "result": null, "result_words": null, "change_hundredths": null, "executed_at": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": { "material_author": "Michal Čiernik", "publisher": "BetArena.sk", "forecaster": "Michal Čiernik", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://www.betarena.sk/rubriky/futbal/slovensko/pohronie-slovan-bratislava-b-monacobet-liga-online-2026-10-30_11913.html", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null, "choice_words": "FK Pohronie to win" } }, { "record_id": "n-d967900edb4c0125b9e30362", "url": "/authors/michal-ciernik/#pick-n-d967900edb4c0125b9e30362", "match": "Fleetwood Town v Arsenal", "match_url": "/football/matches/fleetwood-town-vs-arsenal-2026-10-27/", "kickoff": "2026-10-27T20:00:00.000Z", "competition": "EFL Cup (Carabao)", "lead_hours": 0.9, "market_code": "total", "author_said": "Over/Under 3.5 goals: over 3.5 at 1.37", "quote": null, "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": "Lost", "final_score": "1-1", "reason": "graded against the result: wrong", "reason_code": "not_checked", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-27T19:00:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-27T19:03:13.374Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-d967900edb4c0125b9e30362", "quote_text": "✅ TIP redakcie: Arsenal dá viac ako tri góly (kurz 1,37 v Tipsporte)", "fragment_from": 3355, "fragment_to": 3423, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.betarena.sk/rubriky/futbal/anglicko/fleetwood-town-arsenal-carabao-cup-online-2026-10-27_11894.html", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Michal Čiernik", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "076be6508ac6240e2cee0c0f95651e0fb79ecd839562c1a9ac08bfd44504f8fe", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-27T19:00:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-27T19:03:13.374Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "priced", "status": "ambiguous", "cause": "", "cause_code": "not_checked", "event": { "event_id": "s-745e2a940a5e", "display_name": "Fleetwood Town — Arsenal", "competition_name": "EFL Cup (Carabao)", "starts_at": "2026-10-27T20:00:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/fleetwood-town-vs-arsenal-2026-10-27/", "scoreline": "1-1", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "Over/Under 3.5 goals", "outcome_label": "over 3.5", "odds_set": { "by_author": "1.37", "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": "loss", "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-27T19:00:00.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-10-27T19:00:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-27T19:03:13.374Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Over/Under 3.5 goals", "choice": "over 3.5", "author_odds": "1.37", "market_key": "total", "choice_key": "over", "period": "match", "line": "3.5", "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Over/Under 3.5 goals: over 3.5 at 1.37" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "loss", "scoreline": "1-1", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Fleetwood Town 1-1 Arsenal." }, "settlements": [ { 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null, "result_words": null, "change_hundredths": null, "executed_at": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": { "material_author": "Michal Čiernik", "publisher": "BetArena.sk", "forecaster": "Michal Čiernik", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://www.betarena.sk/rubriky/futbal/anglicko/fleetwood-town-arsenal-carabao-cup-online-2026-10-27_11894.html", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null, "choice_words": "over 3.5 (Over/Under 3.5 goals)" } }, { "record_id": "n-78b3b34eeed9bc0def20d075", "url": "/authors/michal-ciernik/#pick-n-78b3b34eeed9bc0def20d075", "match": "Paris Saint-Germain v FC Barcelona", "match_url": "/football/matches/paris-saint-germain-vs-fc-barcelona-2026-10-20/", "kickoff": "2026-10-20T19:00:00.000Z", "competition": "UEFA Champions League", "lead_hours": 1.0, "market_code": "total", "author_said": "Over/Under 3.5 goals: over 3.5 at 1.5", "quote": null, "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": "Won", "final_score": "4-2", "reason": "", "reason_code": "disputed_reading", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-20T18:00:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-20T18:02:55.843Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-78b3b34eeed9bc0def20d075", "quote_text": "✅ TIP redakcie: Počet gólov viac ako 3,5 (kurz 1,50 vo Fortune)", "fragment_from": 3043, "fragment_to": 3106, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.betarena.sk/rubriky/futbal/liga-majstrov/paris-saint-germain-fc-fc-barcelona-liga-majstrov-online-2026-10-20_11845.html", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Michal Čiernik", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "bbf4a3e6cfdfc98759174adf2ed49131d9c002f5d2b2c45a32f03eb27ae94a40", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-20T18:00:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-20T18:02:55.843Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "priced", "status": "recognised", "cause": "", "cause_code": "disputed_reading", "event": { "event_id": "s-629fcb555792", "display_name": "Paris Saint-Germain — FC Barcelona", "competition_name": "UEFA Champions League", "starts_at": "2026-10-20T19:00:00.000Z", "url": 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