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 "heading": "Michael Siemann — football predictions, page 4 of 10",
 "description": "Predictions 41–60 of 167 by Michael Siemann, with outcomes in words and links to the evidence.",
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  "body": "Page 4 of 10 of the predictions by Michael Siemann recorded by Forecast Record: predictions 41–60 of 167 in the order we recorded them, earliest first; as of 7 November 2026. Each row links to its evidence, and the summary of the record is on the profile page.",
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  "public_name": "Michael Siemann",
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 "recorded_picks": [
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   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
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   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Allerdings ist der Tipp auf\nUnter 3,5 Tore\nausgewogener. Die Quote fällt mit 1,77 bei Interwetten,",
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   "reason_code": "not_supported",
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   "published_at": "2026-09-18T17:00:53.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:16:18.650Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "record_part": "unlinked",
   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
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   "attribution": null,
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   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Sieg Elversberg 2\n\nWenn der SVE einmal ins Rollen kommt, ist zumindest die Offensive nur schwer zu stoppen.\n\nQuote 3,55 bei Betano*",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
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   "reason_code": "not_supported",
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   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2026-09-21T10:00:11.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:16:19.249Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "record_part": "unlinked",
   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
   "in_headline": false,
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   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Beide Teams treffen B2S\n\nBislang standen sich die Mannschaften sechsmal gegenüber; fünfmal trafen beide Clubs.\n\nQuote 1,43 bei Interwetten*",
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   "outcome": "Excluded",
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   "reason_code": "not_supported",
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   "published_at": "2026-09-21T10:00:11.000Z",
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   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
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   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
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   "quote": "Ein Tor beider Mannschaften und der Sieg des FCB sind Wett-Tipps auf Bayern vs. Real Madrid, die wir jeweils einzeln oder in einer Mini-Kombination empfehlen würden.",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
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   "reason_code": "after_match",
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   "published_at": "2026-10-07T12:00:58.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:21:38.014Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
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   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Ein Tor beider Mannschaften und der Sieg des FCB sind Wett-Tipps auf Bayern vs. Real Madrid, die wir jeweils einzeln oder in einer Mini-Kombination empfehlen würden.",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
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   "published_at": "2026-10-07T12:00:58.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:21:38.014Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
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  },
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   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Torfestival-Heimtipp bei\nMerkur Bets: Leverkusen siegt, über 3,5 Tore & beide Teams treffen –\n4,75",
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   "reason_code": "not_supported",
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   "published_at": "2026-10-07T20:59:48.000Z",
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   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
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  },
  {
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   "match_url": null,
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   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Frühstarter-Wette bei\nbet365: Patrick Schick erzielt das 1. Tor –\n6,00",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
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   "final_score": null,
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   "reason_code": "after_match",
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   "published_at": "2026-10-07T20:59:48.000Z",
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   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
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  },
  {
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   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Sieg Leverkusen 1\n\n1.55",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
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   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
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   "published_at": "2026-10-07T20:59:48.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:24:05.424Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
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  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-6377c2d7f7f4404abbdc0d66",
   "url": "/authors/michael-siemann/picks/4/#pick-n-6377c2d7f7f4404abbdc0d66",
   "match": "Borussia Dortmund v Villarreal",
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   "kickoff": "2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "UEFA Champions League",
   "lead_hours": -739.4,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: Borussia Dortmund at 1.82",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Won",
   "claim_outcome": "Won",
   "final_score": "3-2",
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   "points_hundredths": 7300,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": "1.82",
   "settled_price": "1.7300",
   "published_at": "2026-09-04T10:12:23.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:24:56.903Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-6377c2d7f7f4404abbdc0d66",
    "quote_text": "Tipp:\n\nSieg Dortmund 1\n\nBeste Quote\n\n1.82",
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    "source_info": {
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     "url": "https://www.n-tv.de/sportwetten/wett-tipps/dortmund-villarreal-25-11-2025/",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Michael Siemann",
     "authorship": "channel_owner",
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    "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:18.510Z",
    "statement_class": "priced",
    "status": "too_late",
    "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
    "cause_code": null,
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     "event_id": null,
     "display_name": "Borussia Dortmund v Villarreal",
     "competition_name": "UEFA Champions League",
     "starts_at": "2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z",
     "url": null,
     "scoreline": "3-2"
    },
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    "outcome_label": "Borussia Dortmund",
    "odds_set": {
     "by_author": "1.82",
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     "closing": "1.7300",
     "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
    "result": "win",
    "simulation_change_hundredths": 7300,
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    "executed_by": "ours",
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    "provenance": "found_post_match",
    "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "source_stated_date",
    "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
    "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "added_on": null,
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "Borussia Dortmund",
     "author_odds": "1.82",
     "market_key": "1x2",
     "choice_key": "1",
     "period": "match",
     "line": null,
     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "1X2, match result: Borussia Dortmund at 1.82"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
     "result": "win",
     "scoreline": "3-2",
     "data_status": "measured",
     "cause": null,
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
     "in_words": "Won: the final score was Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Villarreal."
    },
    "settlements": [
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      "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "1X2, match result",
      "choice": "Borussia Dortmund",
      "decimal_odds": "1.82",
      "odds_role": "author_price",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
      "status_text": "Executed",
      "result": "win",
      "result_words": "Won",
      "change_hundredths": 8200,
      "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:18.074Z",
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      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "1X2, match result",
      "choice": "Borussia Dortmund",
      "decimal_odds": "1.7300",
      "odds_role": "closing_odds",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
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      "result": "win",
      "result_words": "Won",
      "change_hundredths": 7300,
      "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:18.510Z",
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      "on_claim_market": true,
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    ],
    "corrections": [],
    "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
    "authorship": {
     "material_author": "Michael Siemann",
     "publisher": "n-tv.de",
     "forecaster": "Michael Siemann",
     "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
     "basis": null,
     "status": "not_named",
     "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
     "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
     "evidence_fragment": null,
     "material_url": "https://www.n-tv.de/sportwetten/wett-tipps/dortmund-villarreal-25-11-2025/",
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    },
    "correction": null,
    "choice_words": "Borussia Dortmund to win"
   }
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-25648f4d6c1f8c1eb29fd622",
   "url": "/authors/michael-siemann/picks/4/#pick-n-25648f4d6c1f8c1eb29fd622",
   "match": "FC St. Pauli v Karlsruher SC",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "2. Bundesliga",
   "lead_hours": 42.2,
   "market_code": "both_teams_score",
   "author_said": "Both teams to score: yes at 1.43",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "2-0",
   "reason": "graded against the result: wrong",
   "reason_code": "not_checked",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2026-10-09T16:27:45.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T17:17:07.739Z",
   "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
   "record_part": "live",
   "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
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   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-25648f4d6c1f8c1eb29fd622",
    "quote_text": "Beide Teams treffen B2S\n\nBeide Vereine stehen bei sieben direkten Duellen (H2H) mit Toren und Gegentoren.\n\nQuote 1,43 bei Interwetten*",
    "fragment_from": 1380,
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    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "website",
     "url": "https://www.n-tv.de/sportwetten/wett-tipps/st-pauli-karlsruhe-11-10-2026/",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Michael Siemann",
     "authorship": "channel_owner",
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     "bundle_id": "22613915badde1fb38e37506cd24f39fbaf03579140c89232980243879b83d14",
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    "detected_at": "2026-10-09T17:17:07.739Z",
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    "statement_class": "priced",
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   "quote": "Not2Score N2S\n\nDie letzten Ergebnisse der Freiburger und von Düsseldorf deuten auf eine Null im Ergebnis hin.\n\nQuote 2,30 bei Interwetten*",
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