{ "schema_name": "page", "schema_version": "2.0", "page_type": "author", "url": "/authors/mathias-bartsch/", "canonical": "/authors/mathias-bartsch/", "language": "en", "hreflang": [], "translations": [], "heading": "Mathias Bartsch: Football Prediction Record", "description": "1 settled pick by Mathias Bartsch archived before kick-off across 1 match, 26 Sep 2025: won 0 of 1, reconstructed at archived prices. Live record so far.", "first_paragraph": { "body": "Forecast Record restored 1 settled archived pick by Mathias Bartsch from copies archived before kick-off, across 1 match on 26 September 2025. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 0 of 1 settled archived pick. Live record so far: won 2 of 2 settled live picks at our recorded market price. Of the 599 predictions we hold for Mathias Bartsch, 595 are linked to matches: 2 were recorded by us before kick-off, 1 archived before kick-off by an independent web archive, 87 from the source’s own history and 505 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "key_number": "1", "data": "2026-11-07", "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot", "brand": "Forecast Record" }, "indexable": false, "noindex_reason": "too_few_settled", "indexing_threshold": { "settled_count": 3, "date_count": 2, "required_settled": 10, "required_dates": 2, "live_count": 2, "restored_count": 188, "of_them_archived": 1 }, "data_date": "2026-11-07T18:07:17.270Z", "built_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "lastmod": "2026-11-08T02:12:33.000Z", "content_hash": null, "meaning_hash": "5da81547b12c2e7011e2e594e9898742683bbaa464aabb1e2e61744ea8a8abbc", "dependency_group": "author:e-abedfec7560572f42f8ba805", "release_id": "20261107-195223", "markup": [ { "type_code": "WebPage", "allowed": true, "cause": null }, { "type_code": "Organization", "allowed": true, "cause": null }, { "type_code": "Person", "allowed": true, "cause": null } ], "exports": [ { "type_code": "json", "url": "/authors/mathias-bartsch/index.json", "bytes": null }, { "type_code": "csv", "url": "/authors/mathias-bartsch/picks.csv", "bytes": null } ], "modules": { "affiliate": true, "api": true, "compare_yourself": false }, "affiliate_block": { "container": true, "request_url": "/partnery/moi", "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.", "page_category": "author" }, "restrictions": { "name_withdrawn": false, "tracker_number": null, "withdrawn_quotes": [], "removed_at": null, "cause": null, "suspended_records": [], "withdrawal_log_number": 0 }, "page_links": { "methodology": "/methodology/", "right_of_reply": "/right-of-reply/", "source_coverage": "/coverage/", "corrections_log": "/corrections/", "api": "/api/", "claim": "/claim/" }, "entity": { "id": "e-abedfec7560572f42f8ba805", "public_name": "Mathias Bartsch", "tracker_number": 2765, "status": "active", "inactive_since": null, "verified_creator": false, "observation_period": { "since": "2026-10-09", "until": "2026-11-06" }, "platform_list": [ { "medium": "website", "handle": null, "url": null, "link_confirmed": false, "show": true } ], "comment": null }, "headline_number": { "metric": { "metric_id": "p-e-abedfec7560572f42f8ba805-roi-market-price-90d-z99", "code_name": "roi_market_price", "display_name": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot", "window_kind": "90d", "window_from": "2026-08-09", "window_to": "2026-11-07", "amount": "75.5500", "unit": "percent", "data_status": "calculated", "cause": null, "n_bets": 2, "n_events": 1, "n_void": 0, "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "ci_method": "not_estimated", "price_source": "market_price", "coverage_percent": "100.00", "breakdown": [], "methodology_version": "2.2", "data_date": "2026-11-07T18:07:17.270Z", "enough_for_ranking": false, "series_uid": null, "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot" }, "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 2 settled picks across 1 match", "average_odds": "1.76", "odds_from_author": 2, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 }, "metrics": [], "history": [], "simulation": { "series_uid": "sr-fcd78d22e00f289d8a906861", "bankroll_hundredths": 1015110, "reserve_hundredths": 0, "issued_total_hundredths": 1000000, "top_up_count": 0, "profit_hundredths": 15110, "rewards_off": null, "initial_hundredths": 1000000, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "data_points": [ { "at": "2026-11-07T16:49:27.573Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 1006560, "profit_hundredths": 6560, "outcome_id": "ish-90c32d399a03233494dcff2b" }, { "at": "2026-11-07T16:49:27.590Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 1015110, "profit_hundredths": 15110, "outcome_id": "ish-5fcfc49a585c58b221023e35" } ], "top_ups": [], "rule": "When the balance falls below 100 points and no bets are open, 10000 points are added; the remaining balance is kept. While bets are open we wait for settlement.", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot" }, "simulations": [], "completeness": { "detected": 1636, "recognised": 599, "accepted": 214, "executed": 214, "calculated": 190, "gaps": [ { "cause": "read after the match, from archived pages", "figure": 341 }, { "cause": "not_supported", "figure": 44 } ] }, "record_counts": { "dictionary_version": "1", "statements": 1636, "of_them_restored": 1613, "not_predictions": { "opinions": 131, "not_about_a_match": 906, "unclassified": 0 }, "predictions": 599, "predictions_restored": 593, "matches": 5, "admitted": 214, "qualifying_picks": 214, "qualifying_picks_restored": 212, "settled_picks": 190, "settled_picks_restored": 188, "series_list": [ { "code_name": "market_price", "derived": false, "is_restored": false, "qualifying_picks": 2, "settled_picks": 2, "void": 0, "pending_picks": 0, "matches": 1, "operations_settled": 2, "stakes_hundredths": [ 10000 ], "methodologies": [ "2.2" ], "display_name": "At an independent odds snapshot" }, { "code_name": "author_price", "derived": false, "is_restored": false, "qualifying_picks": 2, "settled_picks": 2, "void": 0, "pending_picks": 0, "matches": 1, "operations_settled": 2, "stakes_hundredths": [ 10000 ], "methodologies": [ "2.2" ], "display_name": "At the author's stated price" }, { "code_name": "retro_market_closing", "derived": false, "is_restored": true, "qualifying_picks": 43, "settled_picks": 29, "void": 0, "pending_picks": 14, "matches": 29, "operations_settled": 29, "stakes_hundredths": [ 10000 ], "methodologies": [ "retro-1.0" ], "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price" }, { "code_name": "retro_author_price", "derived": false, "is_restored": true, "qualifying_picks": 192, "settled_picks": 179, "void": 0, "pending_picks": 13, "matches": 165, "operations_settled": 179, "stakes_hundredths": [ 10000 ], "methodologies": [ "retro-1.0" ], "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price" }, { "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm", "derived": false, "is_restored": true, "qualifying_picks": 184, "settled_picks": 166, "void": 0, "pending_picks": 18, "matches": 158, "operations_settled": 166, "stakes_hundredths": [ 10000 ], "methodologies": [ "retro-1.1" ], "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)" } ], "gaps": [ { "code_name": "after_match", "cause": "read after the match, from archived pages", "figure": 341 }, { "code_name": "not_supported", "cause": "not_supported", "figure": 44 } ], "duplicates": 0, "junk": { "ads": 30, "service": 1 }, "dictionary_url": "/methodology/#words" }, "evidence_items": [ { "observation_id": "n-2bc1656f0794a25fbf2f3dc7", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-2bc1656f0794a25fbf2f3dc7", "quote_text": "Odds are subject to change. 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date as stated by the source", "dates": { "fragment_at": null, "fragment_basis": "no", "source_page_at": "2024-10-03T04:27:29.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:12:14.773Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [ "long_before_detection", "not_fragment_date" ], "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.", "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "found_after_match", "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-0ac5c7ee9cb963d1d45bcf3c", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-0ac5c7ee9cb963d1d45bcf3c", "quote_text": "Dimitri Lavalée nicht auflaufen. Der Belgier wurde beim CL-Auftakt in Brest vom Platz gestellt", "fragment_from": 2449, "fragment_to": 2543, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/sturm-graz-vs-bruegge-tipp-prognose-quoten-02-10-2024-champions-league", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Mathias Bartsch", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "c22325e185168be5b1faf31a42d8f35e5da1b8e1af41db18ef3529a08f9ec272", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:12:14.773Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "found_post_match", "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "dates": { "fragment_at": null, "fragment_basis": "no", "source_page_at": "2024-10-03T04:27:29.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:12:14.773Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [ "long_before_detection", "not_fragment_date" ], "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.", "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "found_after_match", "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-40fcf313b4dbfe4735b68c80", "url": "/authors/mathias-bartsch/picks/31/#pick-n-40fcf313b4dbfe4735b68c80", "quote_text": "bieten sich beim Schlagabtausch von Sturm Graz und Brügge die Quoten auf einen Auswärtssieg (DNB) gleichermaßen an", "fragment_from": 5494, "fragment_to": 5608, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/sturm-graz-vs-bruegge-tipp-prognose-quoten-02-10-2024-champions-league", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Mathias Bartsch", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "c22325e185168be5b1faf31a42d8f35e5da1b8e1af41db18ef3529a08f9ec272", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:12:14.773Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "unpriced", "status": "too_late", "cause": "", "cause_code": "too_late", "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "found_post_match", "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "dates": { "fragment_at": null, "fragment_basis": "no", "source_page_at": "2024-10-03T04:27:29.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:12:14.773Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [ "long_before_detection", "not_fragment_date" ], "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.", "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "found_after_match", "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": null, "correction": null } ], "excluded_from_feed": { "ads": 30, "service": 1, "ruleset_version": "3" }, "standing": null, "retro": { "restored_total": 188, "of_them_archived_pre_match": 1, "found_post_match": 101, "of_them_source_reported": 86, "live_count": 2, "date_count": 111, "span_from": "2024-08-19", "span_to": "2026-09-19", "line_text": "restored history: 188, of which pre-match archive 1", "body": "We re-read what this author published before Premier League, Championship, Champions League, Europa League, Conference League, Copa Libertadores, Bundesliga, LaLiga, LaLiga Segunda, Ligue 1, International Soccer, Serie A and Süper Lig matches between 19 August 2024 and 19 September 2026 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 188. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 1. Taken from the source’s own published history, published before kick-off by the source’s own date: 86. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 101. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.", "precision": { "n": 188, "share": "0.3936" }, "series_list": [ { "code_name": "retro_author_price", "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price", "n": 173, "roi": "-11.4509", "ci_low": "-29.9181", "ci_high": "7.4551", "data_status": "calculated", "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "cause": null }, { "code_name": "retro_market_closing", "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price", "n": 29, "roi": "-32.5597", "ci_low": "-70.8269", "ci_high": "9.8314", "data_status": "calculated", "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "cause": null }, { "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm", "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "n": 166, "roi": "-13.5994", "ci_low": "-31.6994", "ci_high": "4.4702", "data_status": "calculated", "methodology_version": "retro-1.1", "cause": null } ], "clv": { "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above" }, "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "leagues": [ "Premier League", "Championship", "Champions League", "Europa League", "Conference League", "Copa Libertadores", "Bundesliga", "LaLiga", "LaLiga Segunda", "Ligue 1", "International Soccer", "Serie A", "Süper Lig" ], "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 41 settled restored picks and forecasts, and the two agree; 147 come from one provider only. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged." }, "late": null, "price_vs_market": { "contract_version": "1", "threshold_percent": "5", "rows": [ { "basis": "snapshot", "basis_words": "our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off)", "basis_short": "Our market price when we first recorded the pick", "compared": 2, "above": 0, "above_share_percent": "0.0", "below": 0, "within": 2, "median_difference_percent": "0.2", "not_comparable": 0, "disputed": 0, "status": "calculated" }, { "basis": "closing", "basis_words": "the closing market price of the same selection (restored history)", "basis_short": "Closing market price (restored)", "compared": 26, "above": 2, "above_share_percent": "7.7", "below": 8, "within": 16, "median_difference_percent": "-2.0", "not_comparable": 0, "disputed": 0, "status": "calculated", "sentence": "The author's stated price against the closing price of the same selection: median −2.0% over 26 picks. The price available to followers is the market price, shown separately." } ], "examples": [ { "url": "/authors/mathias-bartsch/picks/19/#pick-n-b2509088ce450245879b9dda", "basis": "closing", "stated": "2.00", "market": "3.00", "difference_percent": "-33.3" }, { "url": "/authors/mathias-bartsch/picks/19/#pick-n-eaf33b9c521d3e72895ab892", "basis": "closing", "stated": "1.55", "market": "1.95", "difference_percent": "-20.6" } ], "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way." }, "record_summary": { "contract_version": "1", "entity_type": "person", "entity_words": "Individual author", "source": { "name": "wettbasis.com", "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/rb-leipzig-vs-augsburg-tipp-prognose-quoten-07-11-2026" }, "observed_from": "2026-10-09", "observed_to": "2026-11-06", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "state": "settled", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "series": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "restored": true, "headline_kind": "historical_simulation", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 1, "matches": 1, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -10000, "staked_hundredths": 10000, "return_percent": "-100.00", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "period_from": "2025-09-26", "period_to": "2025-09-26", "status": "calculated", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "short_history": true, "reason": null, "reasons": [], "sentence": "Forecast Record restored 1 settled archived pick by Mathias Bartsch from copies archived before kick-off, across 1 match on 26 September 2025. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 0 of 1 settled archived pick. Live record so far: won 2 of 2 settled live picks at our recorded market price. Of the 599 predictions we hold for Mathias Bartsch, 595 are linked to matches: 2 were recorded by us before kick-off, 1 archived before kick-off by an independent web archive, 87 from the source’s own history and 505 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "numbers": [ { "label": "Settled archived picks", "value": "1", "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick", "note": null }, { "label": "Matches", "value": "1", "anchor": "/methodology/#match", "note": null }, { "label": "Net result", "value": "−100 points", "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement", "note": "100 points per pick" }, { "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "value": "−100.0%", "anchor": "/methodology/#roi", "note": null } ], "limitations": [ "Most of this history comes from the source’s own published record: 87 predictions dated by the source. 85 of them are settled in a historical price series; titles and rankings use the live record.", "Reconstructed at archived prices: these picks were restored from copies of the author’s pages that an independent web archive saved before kick-off, at the last pre-match archive prices, bookmaker margin included." ], "other_series": [], "return_over_time": [], "return_over_time_parts": { "live": { "part": "live", "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "x_axis": "match_date", "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.", "settled_picks": 2, "matches": 1, "match_dates": 1, "period_from": "2026-11-07", "period_to": "2026-11-07", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "final_points_hundredths": 15110, "low": { "date": "2026-11-07", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 15110, "after_picks": 2 }, "high": { "date": "2026-11-07", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 15110, "after_picks": 2 }, "line_drawn": false, "steps": [ { "date": "2026-11-07", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 15110, "n": 2, "picks": 2 } ] }, "archived": { "part": "archived", "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "x_axis": "match_date", "dated_note": "Dated by match day. These picks were restored from copies an independent web archive saved before kick-off; the line shows how they settled at archived prices.", "settled_picks": 1, "matches": 1, "match_dates": 1, "period_from": "2025-09-26", "period_to": "2025-09-26", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "final_points_hundredths": -10000, "low": { "date": "2025-09-26", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000, "after_picks": 1 }, "high": { "date": "2025-09-26", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000, "after_picks": 1 }, "line_drawn": false, "steps": [ { "date": "2025-09-26", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000, "n": 1, "picks": 1 } ] } }, "author_response": null, "cite": { "text": "Forecast Record restored 1 settled archived pick by Mathias Bartsch from copies archived before kick-off, across 1 match on 26 September 2025. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 0 of 1 settled archived pick. Live record so far: won 2 of 2 settled live picks at our recorded market price. Of the 599 predictions we hold for Mathias Bartsch, 595 are linked to matches: 2 were recorded by us before kick-off, 1 archived before kick-off by an independent web archive, 87 from the source’s own history and 505 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/mathias-bartsch/", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "retro-1.1" }, "origin": { "contract_version": "1", "predictions": 599, "under_review": 0, "no_match_linked": 4, "proven_predictions": 3, "proven_checked": 3, "proven_measured": 3, "proven_dates": 2, "parts": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.", "predictions": 2, "checked": 2, "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "series_code": "market_price", "main": { "settled_picks": 2, "void": 0, "matches": 1, "net_points_hundredths": 15110, "staked_hundredths": 20000, "return_percent": "75.55", "interval_low": null, "interval_high": null, "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval", "period_from": "2026-11-07", "period_to": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "2.2", "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0", "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.0", "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 0 }, "same_picks": [ { "price": "Author-quoted price", "series_code": "author_price", "picks": 2, "return_main_percent": "75.55", "return_other_percent": "76.00", "settled_excluding_void": 2, "net_main_points_hundredths": 15110, "net_other_points_hundredths": 15200, "period_from": "2026-11-07", "period_to": "2026-11-07" }, { "price": "Closing price", "series_code": "closing_live", "picks": 1, "return_main_percent": "85.50", "return_other_percent": "69.93", "settled_excluding_void": 1, "net_main_points_hundredths": 8550, "net_other_points_hundredths": 6993, "period_from": "2026-11-07", "period_to": "2026-11-07" } ], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 2, "priced": 2 }, "accuracy": { "picks": 2, "won": 2, "won_percent": "100.0", "implied_percent": "57.1", "left_out": 0, "by_market": [ { "market": "Asian handicap", "won": 1, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "60.4" }, { "market": "Team goals", "won": 1, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "53.9" } ] } }, { "code": "archived", "title": "Archived before kick-off", "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.", "predictions": 1, "checked": 1, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": { "settled_picks": 1, "void": 0, "matches": 1, "net_points_hundredths": -10000, "staked_hundredths": 10000, "return_percent": "-100.00", "interval_low": null, "interval_high": null, "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval", "period_from": "2025-09-26", "period_to": "2025-09-26", "method_version": "retro-1.1" }, "same_picks": [ { "price": "Author-quoted price", "series_code": "retro_author_price", "picks": 1, "return_main_percent": "-100.00", "return_other_percent": "-100.00", "settled_excluding_void": 1, "net_main_points_hundredths": -10000, "net_other_points_hundredths": -10000, "period_from": "2025-09-26", "period_to": "2025-09-26" } ], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 1, "priced": 1 }, "accuracy": { "picks": 1, "won": 0, "won_percent": "0.0", "implied_percent": "28.1", "left_out": 0, "by_market": [ { "market": "Match result", "won": 0, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "28.1" } ] } }, { "code": "found_after", "title": "Found after the match", "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.", "predictions": 505, "checked": 101, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": { "settled_picks": 80, "void": 0, "matches": 72, "net_points_hundredths": -182500, "staked_hundredths": 800000, "return_percent": "-22.81", "interval_low": "-46.42", "interval_high": "1.94", "interval_note": null, "period_from": "2024-08-19", "period_to": "2026-02-26", "method_version": "retro-1.1" }, "same_picks": [ { "price": "Author-quoted price", "series_code": "retro_author_price", "picks": 71, "return_main_percent": "-20.61", "return_other_percent": "-18.28", "settled_excluding_void": 71, "net_main_points_hundredths": -146350, "net_other_points_hundredths": -129800, "period_from": "2024-08-19", "period_to": "2026-02-26" }, { "price": "Closing price, aggregator", "series_code": "retro_market_closing", "picks": 27, "return_main_percent": "-26.69", "return_other_percent": "-27.56", "settled_excluding_void": 27, "net_main_points_hundredths": -72050, "net_other_points_hundredths": -74423, "period_from": "2025-02-02", "period_to": "2025-11-09" } ], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 101, "priced": 80 }, "accuracy": { "picks": 80, "won": 31, "won_percent": "38.8", "implied_percent": "49.3", "left_out": 0, "by_market": [ { "market": "Match result", "won": 12, "picks": 36, "implied_percent": "42.5" }, { "market": "Over/under goals", "won": 7, "picks": 17, "implied_percent": "51.5" }, { "market": "Team goals", "won": 4, "picks": 13, "implied_percent": "54.0" }, { "market": "Both teams to score", "won": 3, "picks": 6, "implied_percent": "61.4" }, { "market": "Asian handicap", "won": 3, "picks": 3, "implied_percent": "58.7" }, { "market": "Other markets", "won": 2, "picks": 5, "implied_percent": "58.6" } ] } }, { "code": "source_reported", "title": "Source-reported history", "explanation": "The time and the pick are known only from the source’s own history; it is the basis of the record check and never part of the evidenced total.", "predictions": 87, "checked": 86, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": { "settled_picks": 85, "void": 0, "matches": 85, "net_points_hundredths": -33250, "staked_hundredths": 850000, "return_percent": "-3.91", "interval_low": "-31.71", "interval_high": "25.56", "interval_note": null, "period_from": "2025-03-09", "period_to": "2026-09-19", "method_version": "retro-1.1" }, "same_picks": [ { "price": "Author-quoted price", "series_code": 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"Over/under goals", "won": 6, "picks": 15, "implied_percent": "51.7" }, { "market": "Result and both teams to score", "won": 0, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "20.0" } ] } } ] }, "live_alongside": { "predictions": 2, "checked": 2, "settled": 2, "won": 2, "void": 0, "checked_won": 2, "checked_settled": 2, "threshold": 10, "text": "Live record so far: won 2 of 2 settled live picks at our recorded market price." }, "headline_record_ids": [ "n-ecae451e4c5701e9a8c22470" ], "interval_low": null, "interval_high": null, "caption": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) · 100 points per pick · 26 September 2025 · Calculated · picks settled under reconstruction method 1.1", "record_from": "2024-08-19", "record_to": "2026-11-07" }, "recorded_picks": [ { "record_id": "n-bfe582c6bd17df70bf695438", "url": "/authors/mathias-bartsch/picks/31/#pick-n-bfe582c6bd17df70bf695438", "match": "RB Leipzig v FC Augsburg", "match_url": 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"replaced": false }, { "operation_id": "545de62250bb6cdea6cdc1979819645072b9180020c5508932f59eaf4eb5eabf", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Asian handicap -1", "choice": "RB Leipzig -1", "decimal_odds": "1.6560", "odds_role": "market_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "win", "result_words": "Won", "change_hundredths": 6560, "executed_at": "2026-11-06T06:06:19.070Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "settled_pick", "authorship": { "material_author": "Mathias Bartsch", "publisher": "wettbasis.com", "forecaster": "Mathias Bartsch", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/rb-leipzig-vs-augsburg-tipp-prognose-quoten-07-11-2026", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null, "choice_words": "RB Leipzig -1" } }, { "record_id": "n-e38dc63e505f23844744f01e", "url": "/authors/mathias-bartsch/picks/31/#pick-n-e38dc63e505f23844744f01e", "match": "RB Leipzig v FC Augsburg", "match_url": "/football/matches/rb-leipzig-vs-fc-augsburg-2026-11-07/", "kickoff": "2026-11-07T14:30:00.000Z", "competition": "Bundesliga", "lead_hours": 32.4, "market_code": "team_total", "author_said": "Team goals over/under 2.5: RB Leipzig over 2.5 at 1.87", "quote": null, "group": "settled", "outcome": "Won", "claim_outcome": "Won", "final_score": "5-2", "reason": null, "reason_code": null, "points_hundredths": 8550, "series_code": "market_price", "series_short": "odds snapshot", "author_price": "1.87", "settled_price": "1.8550", "published_at": "2026-11-06T05:56:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-11-06T06:04:35.808Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-e38dc63e505f23844744f01e", "quote_text": "Zusammenfassend bietet der RB Leipzig vs. Augsburg Tipp auf über 2.5 Tore der Hausherren den größten Value für mich. Die Wette darauf, dass die Heimmannschaft mindestens dreimal trifft, wird mit 1.87 (Stand: 04.11.2026, 10:51 Uhr) bei Oddset quotiert.", "fragment_from": 9568, "fragment_to": 9819, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/rb-leipzig-vs-augsburg-tipp-prognose-quoten-07-11-2026", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Mathias Bartsch", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "b6f9d7dda4a2f568ef7e2dbc4c4fe4f3d5e504eb904c87d6b0faa62862822853", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-11-06T05:56:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-06T06:04:35.808Z", "executed_at": "2026-11-06T06:06:22.042Z", "statement_class": "priced", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": "s-33101de1421d", "display_name": "RB Leipzig — FC Augsburg", "competition_name": "Bundesliga", "starts_at": "2026-11-07T14:30:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/rb-leipzig-vs-fc-augsburg-2026-11-07/", "scoreline": "5-2", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "Team goals over/under 2.5", "outcome_label": "RB Leipzig over 2.5", "odds_set": { "by_author": "1.87", "our_snapshot": "1.8550", "our_snapshot_at": "2026-11-06T06:04:35.238Z", "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot", "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "win", "simulation_change_hundredths": 8550, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": "ours", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-11-06T05:56:00.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-11-06T05:56:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-06T06:04:35.808Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Team goals over/under 2.5", "choice": "RB Leipzig over 2.5", "author_odds": "1.87", "market_key": "team_total", "choice_key": "1-over", "period": "match", "line": "2.5", "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Team goals over/under 2.5: RB Leipzig over 2.5 at 1.87" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "win", "scoreline": "5-2", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Won: the final score was RB Leipzig 5-2 FC Augsburg." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "bbd803e004e8c75aea6b16d1240b6717130ef556e4a4d42791ca82c94271634d", "series_key": "author_price", "series_label": "At the author's stated price", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Team goals over/under 2.5", "choice": "RB Leipzig over 2.5", "decimal_odds": "1.87", "odds_role": "author_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "win", "result_words": "Won", "change_hundredths": 8700, "executed_at": "2026-11-06T06:06:19.320Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false }, { "operation_id": "fbcc0578328a3c07b915f0d6fc09696270e3074ce49bb9a0c99a7b862b61a4dc", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Team goals over/under 2.5", "choice": "RB Leipzig over 2.5", "decimal_odds": "1.8550", "odds_role": "market_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "win", "result_words": "Won", "change_hundredths": 8550, "executed_at": "2026-11-06T06:06:22.042Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "settled_pick", "authorship": { "material_author": "Mathias Bartsch", "publisher": "wettbasis.com", "forecaster": "Mathias Bartsch", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/rb-leipzig-vs-augsburg-tipp-prognose-quoten-07-11-2026", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null, "choice_words": "RB Leipzig over 2.5 (Team goals over/under 2.5)" } }, { "record_id": "n-1527772f3c69fe6d17fea1be", "url": "/authors/mathias-bartsch/picks/5/#pick-n-1527772f3c69fe6d17fea1be", "match": "Newcastle United v Hull City", "match_url": "/football/matches/newcastle-united-vs-hull-city-2026-09-19/", "kickoff": "2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z", "competition": "Premier League", "lead_hours": -558.2, "market_code": "both_teams_score", "author_said": "Both teams to score: yes at 1.6", "quote": null, "group": "settled", "outcome": "Won", "claim_outcome": "Won", "final_score": "2-1", "reason": null, "reason_code": null, "points_hundredths": 5850, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored", "author_price": "1.6", "settled_price": "1.5850", "published_at": "2026-09-18T22:52:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T20:09:03.404Z", "origin": "Source-reported history", "record_part": "source_reported", "record_part_words": "Source-reported history", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-1527772f3c69fe6d17fea1be", "quote_text": "Beide Treffen - Ja\n\ngering\n\n1.60", "fragment_from": 1987, "fragment_to": 2019, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": 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HZ mit den meisten Toren)\n\n2.10", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": null, "recorded_at": "2026-10-16T03:12:33.075Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-d2870d3bf32ad70575366b16", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Tottenham > 2.5 Tore\n\n2.11", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": null, "recorded_at": "2026-10-16T03:12:33.075Z", "origin": "Found after the match; 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date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-488d21504bb013508af846e7", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Vor diesem Hintergrund bietet sich beim Schlagabtausch von Crystal Palace und Fulham der Tipp auf maximal zwei Treffer gleichermaßen an.", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": null, "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:45:01.187Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-0bfea1ef32128ea95838f9b6", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Angesichts dessen erscheint beim Duell zwischen Crystal Palace und Fulham die Prognose auf einen beidseitigen Torjubel ebenfalls vielversprechend.", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": null, "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:45:01.187Z", "origin": "Found after the match; 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date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-b4916c5fab64abb3c00da245", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Tipp auf seinen nächsten Treffer gleichermaßen an", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": null, "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:42:28.987Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-719e5975f6f7c0935d577c07", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "West Ham zu 1.96", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": null, "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:42:28.987Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-62121e048892f165cb73cc26", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Unser Tipp\n\nEverton (+2)\n\nNEO.bet\n\n1.72\nQuote", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-03-10T09:40:08.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:33:57.510Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-09f7967b6ccd01f3c8f0030a", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Beide treffen - Ja & über 2.5 Tore\n\nmittel\n\n2.15 bei Bet-at-home", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-02-26T07:13:31.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-13T01:15:40.392Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-1940b6792e868d321e00bab5", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Angesichts dessen stellen die Premier League 11. Spieltag Prognosen auf einen Auswärtssieg von United, inklusive der Absicherung eines Remis, ebenfalls eine gute Idee in den Augen der Wettbasis dar.", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-11-09T08:09:35.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-16T03:05:57.919Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-869da1c9edc3a8da0a5d52a2", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Angesichts dessen stellen die Premier League 11. Spieltag Prognosen auf einen Auswärtssieg von United, inklusive der Absicherung eines Remis, ebenfalls eine gute Idee in den Augen der Wettbasis dar.", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-11-09T08:09:35.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-16T03:05:57.919Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-189750ba8e4f8c77cddd688e", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Vor diesem Hintergrund bieten sich beim Gastspiel an der Stamford Bridge die Premier League 11. Spieltag Quoten auf mehr als zwei Treffer durch die Hausherren an.", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-11-09T08:09:35.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-16T03:05:57.919Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-d8b69801518f4a13623be6b1", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Außerdem erwarten wir erneut einen Treffer durch Cody Gakpo im Heimspiel von Liverpool gegen Aston Villa.", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-11-02T11:40:35.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-16T03:05:55.546Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-273544047feda57eba18990c", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Value-Alarm ist beim Duell zwischen Fulham und Wolverhampton angeschlagen", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-11-02T11:40:35.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-16T03:05:55.546Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-d49c1bfbaf8700e541a758c7", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Nein, United setzt sich durch!", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-11-02T11:40:35.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-16T03:05:55.546Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-3bbb2ad312f3a34b0157e0de", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Ja, im Vorfeld lässt sich kein Favorit erkennen!", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-11-02T11:40:35.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-16T03:05:55.546Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-bc95e77c2cf913942c6b49a1", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Nein, Fulham gewinnt!", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-11-02T11:40:35.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-16T03:05:55.546Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-c7cd20740d134686af51bf64", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Ja, die Teams sind ebenbürtig!", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-11-02T11:40:35.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-16T03:05:55.546Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-08fa98c326aad0c59bfd65aa", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Nein, zumindest einmal wird Burnley treffen!", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-11-02T11:40:35.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-16T03:05:55.546Z", "origin": "Found after the match; 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date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-e75d879f0042ce6f8ac05742", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Bournemouth (DC)\n\nbei Bet365 zu 1.54", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-01-02T08:38:11.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-16T03:06:15.657Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-3228a5aca1080ea7e788ea39", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "unter 2.5 Tore\n\nbei Bet365 zu 1.62", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-01-02T08:38:11.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-16T03:06:15.657Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-da8dd6f4abc85ecc7591b8e8", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Crystal Palace vs. Southampton\n\nCrystal Palace < 1.5 Tore\n\n2.15", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-01-02T08:38:11.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-16T03:06:15.657Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-dfaf63eefecccf72a0b4d390", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Leicester vs. Manchester City\n\nüber 3.5 Tore\n\n1.90", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-01-02T08:38:11.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-16T03:06:15.657Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null } ], "lead_time": { "contract_version": 1, "threshold_hours": 2.0, "picks": 214, "before_kickoff": 2, "after_kickoff": 212, "at_least_2h": 2, "share_2h_plus": 0.9, "median_hours": 32.4, "min_hours": 32.4, "max_hours": 32.4, "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off." }, "baseline": { "contract_version": 1, "series_code": "market_price", "rule": "recorded-line-1.0", "state": "none", "picks": 0, "settled_picks_all": 2, "excluded": { "market_without_favourite": 1, "no_recorded_line": 1, "favourite_not_settled": 0 }, "staked_hundredths": 0, "author_net_hundredths": 0, "favourite_net_hundredths": 0, "difference_hundredths": 0, "author_return_percent": null, "favourite_return_percent": null, "author_hit_rate": null, "favourite_hit_rate": null, "picked_favourite_share": null, "by_market": [], "return_over_time": [], "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. 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"e-abedfec7560572f42f8ba805", "medium": "Wettbasis", "channel": "section pages", "domain": "wettbasis.com", "source_info": null, "byline": "Mathias Bartsch", "url": null, "summary": { "statements": 1636, "predictions": 599, "settled_picks": 1, "headline_kind": "historical_simulation", "return_percent": -100.0, "headline_part": "archived", "period_from": "2026-10-09", "period_to": "2026-11-06" } } ], "previously": [], "trust_tier": "probation" }, "data_revision": { "data_version": "2026-10-13.5", "updated": "2026-10-13", "current_release": "2026-11-07.2", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "price_rule": "reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "sample": { "settled_picks": 1, "matches": 1, "void": 0, "period_from": "2025-09-26", "period_to": "2025-09-26", "composition_hash": "538625b3d237903ef9f8fdf39bf8a97dd32fec9f0ec118de04a1e1e261aa1bb1" }, "changes_url": 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record: 1 settled pick in the series “historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only”.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null } ], "counts_by_slice": { "portions": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "settled_picks": 2, "total_check": true, "market_list": [ { "code_name": "handicap_asian", "in_words": "Asian handicap", "url": null, "settled_picks": 1, "won": 1, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": 6560, "return_percent": "65.6", "period_from": "2026-11-07", "period_to": "2026-11-07", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "1.65", "odds_from_author": 1, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 }, { "code_name": "team_total", "in_words": "Team goals", "url": null, "settled_picks": 1, "won": 1, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": 8550, "return_percent": "85.5", "period_from": "2026-11-07", "period_to": "2026-11-07", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "1.87", "odds_from_author": 1, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 } ], "leagues": [ { "code_name": "Bundesliga", "in_words": "Bundesliga", "url": "/football/competitions/bundesliga/", "settled_picks": 2, "won": 2, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": 15110, "return_percent": "75.5", "period_from": "2026-11-07", "period_to": "2026-11-07", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "1.76", "odds_from_author": 2, "odds_from_snapshot": 0, "league_markets": [ { "code_name": "handicap_asian", "in_words": "Asian handicap", "settled_picks": 1, "won": 1, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": 6560, "return_percent": null, "period_from": "2026-11-07", "period_to": "2026-11-07", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "1.65", "odds_from_author": 1, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 }, { "code_name": "team_total", "in_words": "Team goals", "settled_picks": 1, "won": 1, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": 8550, "return_percent": null, 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