{
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 "heading": "María Candelario: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "7 settled picks by María Candelario recorded before kick-off across 4 matches, 24 Oct 2026 – 7 Nov 2026: won 3 of 7 at our recorded market prices.",
 "first_paragraph": {
  "body": "Forecast Record recorded 7 settled live picks by María Candelario before kick-off across 4 matches between 24 October and 7 November 2026. Won 3 of 7 settled live picks at our recorded market prices. Of the 14 predictions we hold for María Candelario, 11 are linked to matches: 11 were recorded by us before kick-off. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "key_number": "7",
  "data": "2026-11-07",
  "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot",
  "brand": "Forecast Record"
 },
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 },
 "data_date": "2026-11-07T17:51:04.792Z",
 "built_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
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 "dependency_group": "author:e-27e3ee307a6d62e6fa9f2bc6",
 "release_id": "20261107-195223",
 "markup": [
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 "exports": [
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 ],
 "modules": {
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 },
 "affiliate_block": {
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  "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.",
  "page_category": "author"
 },
 "restrictions": {
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 "page_links": {
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  "claim": "/claim/"
 },
 "entity": {
  "id": "e-27e3ee307a6d62e6fa9f2bc6",
  "public_name": "María Candelario",
  "tracker_number": 2658,
  "status": "active",
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  "observation_period": {
   "since": "2026-10-09",
   "until": "2026-11-06"
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   "amount": "-37.5243",
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   "n_bets": 7,
   "n_events": 4,
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   "price_source": "market_price",
   "coverage_percent": "100.00",
   "breakdown": [],
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  "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 7 settled picks across 4 matches",
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   "quote_text": "juntando ambos se queda en una buena combinada, gana Bayern y más de 3.5 goles se paga a 1.90 por euro apostado.",
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   "quote_text": "los locales tendrán que recomponer su defensa por las sanciones de Stefan Posch y Phillipp Mwene.",
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   "quote_text": "Kompany seguirá sin sentarse en el banquillo por enfermedad, así que Aaron Banks afronta este compromiso",
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   "observation_id": "n-6fde1080c842e4a4fa649e68",
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   "quote_text": "Espero un partido intenso, con ocasiones y alternativas, aunque el Bayern parte como claro favorito.",
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    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
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   "observation_id": "n-3bd35c0828997b164224b87e",
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   "quote_text": "un duelo mucho más igualado de lo que podrían sugerir las cuotas.",
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    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Borussia Dortmund 2-2 SV Werder Bremen."
   },
   "settlements": [
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     "series_label": "At the author's stated price",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "Borussia Dortmund",
     "decimal_odds": null,
     "odds_role": null,
     "stake_hundredths": null,
     "status": "skipped",
     "status_text": "Not executed: ",
     "result": null,
     "result_words": null,
     "change_hundredths": null,
     "executed_at": null,
     "methodology_version": "2.1",
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    {
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     "series_key": "market_price",
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     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "Borussia Dortmund",
     "decimal_odds": null,
     "odds_role": null,
     "stake_hundredths": null,
     "status": "skipped",
     "status_text": "Not executed: ",
     "result": null,
     "result_words": null,
     "change_hundredths": null,
     "executed_at": null,
     "methodology_version": "2.1",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    }
   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "prediction",
   "authorship": {
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    "publisher": "betbrothers.es",
    "forecaster": "María Candelario",
    "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
    "basis": null,
    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
    "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://betbrothers.es/pronosticos-deportivos/borussia-dortmund-werder-bremen-bundesliga-2026/",
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   },
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 ],
 "standing": null,
 "retro": null,
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": {
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  "threshold_percent": "5",
  "rows": [
   {
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    "basis_words": "our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off)",
    "basis_short": "Our market price when we first recorded the pick",
    "compared": 7,
    "above": 0,
    "above_share_percent": "0.0",
    "below": 2,
    "within": 5,
    "median_difference_percent": "-1.8",
    "not_comparable": 0,
    "disputed": 0,
    "status": "calculated"
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  ],
  "examples": [
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    "url": "/authors/maria-candelario/#pick-n-c5fa2c87cbdd220870dce6ee",
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "stated": "1.90",
    "market": "2.02",
    "difference_percent": "-6.2"
   },
   {
    "url": "/authors/maria-candelario/#pick-n-e7a412edbe4252bc72a7d3b7",
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "stated": "2.30",
    "market": "2.45",
    "difference_percent": "-6.1"
   }
  ],
  "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way."
 },
 "record_summary": {
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  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "betbrothers.es",
   "url": "https://betbrothers.es/pronosticos-deportivos/mainz-bayern-munich-bundesliga-2026/"
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  "observed_to": "2026-11-06",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "market_price",
  "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price",
  "restored": false,
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  "settled_picks": 7,
  "matches": 4,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": -26267,
  "staked_hundredths": 70000,
  "return_percent": "-37.52",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2026-10-24",
  "period_to": "2026-11-07",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "2.2",
  "short_history": true,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record recorded 7 settled live picks by María Candelario before kick-off across 4 matches between 24 October and 7 November 2026. Won 3 of 7 settled live picks at our recorded market prices. Of the 14 predictions we hold for María Candelario, 11 are linked to matches: 11 were recorded by us before kick-off. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
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    "value": "7",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
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   },
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    "value": "4",
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   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "−262.67 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
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   },
   {
    "label": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "value": "−37.5%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
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   }
  ],
  "limitations": [],
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  "return_over_time": [],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
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    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.",
    "settled_picks": 7,
    "matches": 4,
    "match_dates": 3,
    "period_from": "2026-10-24",
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    },
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     },
     {
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      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -6267,
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     },
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      "picks": 2
     }
    ]
   },
   "archived": null
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record recorded 7 settled live picks by María Candelario before kick-off across 4 matches between 24 October and 7 November 2026. Won 3 of 7 settled live picks at our recorded market prices. Of the 14 predictions we hold for María Candelario, 11 are linked to matches: 11 were recorded by us before kick-off. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/maria-candelario/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "2.2"
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  "origin": {
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   "proven_dates": 6,
   "parts": [
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     "predictions": 11,
     "checked": 11,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": {
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      "return_percent": "-37.52",
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      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
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      "method_version": "2.2",
      "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0",
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      "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 0
     },
     "same_picks": [
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       "picks": 7,
       "return_main_percent": "-37.52",
       "return_other_percent": "-36.86",
       "settled_excluding_void": 7,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -26267,
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      },
      {
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     ],
     "score": {
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      "baseline_matches": 0,
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      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
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      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
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      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
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      "priced": 7
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 7,
      "won": 3,
      "won_percent": "42.9",
      "implied_percent": "56.9",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
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        "won": 2,
        "picks": 3,
        "implied_percent": "67.0"
       },
       {
        "market": "Result and both teams to score",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 2,
        "implied_percent": "39.5"
       },
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "69.2"
       },
       {
        "market": "Result and total goals",
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        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "49.4"
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      ]
     },
     "reviewed_after": {
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      "wrong": 1,
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     }
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
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     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
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      "baseline_matches": 0,
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     },
     "eligible": {
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      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
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     "score": {
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      "baseline_matches": 0,
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      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
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      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
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     },
     "accuracy": null
    }
   ]
  },
  "live_alongside": null,
  "headline_record_ids": [
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   "n-4c8ede1e31e2f58c06b54f42",
   "n-93f5d0a0dc41fa034f7aeaf3",
   "n-afd8959fe7dfd7d11129014e",
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   "n-e7a412edbe4252bc72a7d3b7"
  ],
  "interval_low": null,
  "interval_high": null,
  "caption": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price · 100 points per pick · 24 October – 7 November 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under method v2.2",
  "record_from": "2026-10-09",
  "record_to": "2026-11-07"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
  {
   "record_id": "n-c5fa2c87cbdd220870dce6ee",
   "url": "/authors/maria-candelario/#pick-n-c5fa2c87cbdd220870dce6ee",
   "match": "1. FSV Mainz 05 v FC Bayern München",
   "match_url": "/football/matches/1-fsv-mainz-05-vs-fc-bayern-munchen-2026-11-07/",
   "kickoff": "2026-11-07T14:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Bundesliga",
   "lead_hours": 30.6,
   "market_code": "result_and_total",
   "author_said": "Match result and over/under 3.5 goals: FC Bayern München to win and over 3.5 goals at 1.9",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "1-2",
   "reason": null,
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   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "market_price",
   "series_short": "odds snapshot",
   "author_price": "1.9",
   "settled_price": "2.0250",
   "published_at": "2026-11-06T07:37:22.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-11-06T07:52:01.277Z",
   "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
   "record_part": "live",
   "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off",
   "in_headline": true,
   "attribution": null,
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   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-c5fa2c87cbdd220870dce6ee",
    "quote_text": "juntando ambos se queda en una buena combinada, gana Bayern y más de 3.5 goles se paga a 1.90 por euro apostado.",
    "fragment_from": 3734,
    "fragment_to": 3846,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
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     "url": "https://betbrothers.es/pronosticos-deportivos/mainz-bayern-munich-bundesliga-2026/",
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     "speaker": "María Candelario",
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     "bundle_id": "1081528b91a03da99c0acca7a7ae6e91cc138186d1a4e29ed00ba471b8eec0a7",
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    },
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    "executed_at": "2026-11-06T07:53:44.659Z",
    "statement_class": "priced",
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    "event": {
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     "starts_at": "2026-11-07T14:30:00.000Z",
     "url": "/football/matches/1-fsv-mainz-05-vs-fc-bayern-munchen-2026-11-07/",
     "scoreline": "1-2",
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    },
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     "closing_source": null
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
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    "executed_by": "ours",
    "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot",
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    "dates": {
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     "fragment_basis": "page",
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     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [],
     "flag_words": null,
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff",
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    "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "added_on": null,
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "Match result and over/under 3.5 goals",
     "choice": "FC Bayern München to win and over 3.5 goals",
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     "market_key": "result_and_total",
     "choice_key": "2-over",
     "period": "match",
     "line": "3.5",
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     "in_words": "Match result and over/under 3.5 goals: FC Bayern München to win and over 3.5 goals at 1.9"
    },
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     "data_status": "measured",
     "cause": null,
     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "in_words": "Lost: the final score was 1. FSV Mainz 05 1-2 FC Bayern München."
    },
    "settlements": [
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      "series_key": "author_price",
      "series_label": "At the author's stated price",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "Match result and over/under 3.5 goals",
      "choice": "FC Bayern München to win and over 3.5 goals",
      "decimal_odds": "1.9",
      "odds_role": "author_price",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
      "status_text": "Executed",
      "result": "loss",
      "result_words": "Lost",
      "change_hundredths": -10000,
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     },
     {
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      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
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      "choice": "FC Bayern München to win and over 3.5 goals",
      "decimal_odds": "2.0250",
      "odds_role": "market_price",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
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    ],
    "corrections": [],
    "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
    "authorship": {
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     "basis": null,
     "status": "not_named",
     "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
     "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
     "evidence_fragment": null,
     "material_url": "https://betbrothers.es/pronosticos-deportivos/mainz-bayern-munich-bundesliga-2026/",
     "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
     "verdict_by": null,
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    },
    "correction": null,
    "choice_words": "FC Bayern München to win and over 3.5 goals"
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   "url": "/authors/maria-candelario/#pick-n-93f5d0a0dc41fa034f7aeaf3",
   "match": "1. FSV Mainz 05 v FC Bayern München",
   "match_url": "/football/matches/1-fsv-mainz-05-vs-fc-bayern-munchen-2026-11-07/",
   "kickoff": "2026-11-07T14:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Bundesliga",
   "lead_hours": 30.6,
   "market_code": "total",
   "author_said": "Over/Under 3.5 goals: over 3.5 at 1.57",
   "quote": null,
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   "quote": "ambos equipos marcan y que hay más de 2,5 goles que se paga a 1.53 por euro apostado en la casa de apuestas Tonybet.",
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   "quote": "que Harry Kane, Kai Havertz, Luis Diaz, Ismael Saibari y Eberichi Eze harán más de un remate, sumando una cuota de 2.87 por euro apostado",
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   "published_at": "2026-10-20T23:49:28.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-21T00:12:06.289Z",
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   "quote": "iría claramente a la combinada con la victoria del Dortmund o empate sumada a más de 2.5 goles que se paga a 1.90 por euro apostado en la casa de apuestas Luckia.",
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