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 "heading": "Marco Avena: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "Verified record: 47 settled picks by Marco Avena recorded before kick-off across 25 matches, 10 Oct 2026 – 7 Nov 2026: −11.8% at our recorded market prices.",
 "first_paragraph": {
  "body": "Forecast Record recorded 47 settled live picks by Marco Avena before kick-off across 25 matches between 10 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −11.8% on the total staked. Of the 188 predictions we hold for Marco Avena, 91 are linked to matches: 88 were recorded by us before kick-off and 3 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "key_number": "−11.8%",
  "data": "2026-11-07",
  "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot",
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 "data_date": "2026-11-07T18:06:44.041Z",
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  "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.",
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   "n_bets": 47,
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   "ci_low": "-39.2663",
   "ci_high": "19.0085",
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   "coverage_percent": "100.00",
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  ],
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  "rule": "When the balance falls below 100 points and no bets are open, 10000 points are added; the remaining balance is kept. While bets are open we wait for settlement.",
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   {
    "cause": "disputed_reading",
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   {
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   },
   {
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   {
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-14e3b091f31aeba9d72b3bb4",
   "quote_text": "Milla sembra l'elemento certo con uno tra Perrone e Caqueret pronto ad affiancarlo.",
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://www.sportytrader.it/pronostici/inter-como-385802/",
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "dates": {
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    "fragment_basis": "no",
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    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
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    "flag_words": "The source states no publication date.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "no_match_linked",
   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
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   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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  },
  {
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-f077a11e80581c899c4dfae8",
   "quote_text": "Tra i pali è Sanchez ad essere favorito su Butez",
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   "quote_text": "No Gol\n\nQuota\n2.20",
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   "quote_text": "Su Planetwin365 troviamo la quota più alta per il pareggio tra Italia e Sudafrica, a 41.",
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   "quote_text": "La migliore quota per il segno 1 vincente - vittoria Italia vs Sudafrica è attualmente a 19 su Planetwin365.",
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   "url": "/authors/marco-avena/picks/11/#pick-n-35e018056690479d49775256",
   "quote_text": "Il nostro pronostico Italia - Sudafrica\n\nQuesta partita dovrebbe vedere gli Springboks puntare alla vittoria come accaduto negli ultimi 6 precedenti e dovrebbero riuscirci soprattutto perché non scenderanno in campo compiaciuti e hanno un gruppo attrezzato per dominare i loro avversari.\n\nL'Italia del selezionatore Gonzalo Quesada che si presenta a questo appuntamento ha sicuramente qualcosa in più di quella vista a luglio, molto condizionta dagli infortunio, e vedremo se il fatto di giocare in casa permetterà agli azzurri di limitare i danni così come accadde un anno fa quando a Torino furono battuti di \"soli\" 18 punti. Pronostico Italia Sud Africa: vince l'Italia con handicap aggiuntivo +30.5 punti.",
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   "statement_class": "unpriced",
   "status": "not_supported",
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-2f59f5e8ea76f20aa36d60ac",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-2f59f5e8ea76f20aa36d60ac",
   "quote_text": "Queste cinque sfide sono accomunate dal fatto che sono sempre stati segnati 3 o più gol",
   "fragment_from": 7951,
   "fragment_to": 8038,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.sportytrader.it/pronostici/venezia-udinese-385001/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Marco Avena",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "a859dc5fbd6be7d244b66f9ce479cf320c92ed8de092945d7dd354343a8bd6ea",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-11-04T19:54:43.186Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
   "cause": null,
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   "odds_set": {
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    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": null,
    "detected_at": "2026-11-04T19:54:43.186Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "no_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source states no publication date.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "no_match_linked",
   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  }
 ],
 "excluded_from_feed": {
  "ads": 34,
  "service": 1,
  "ruleset_version": "3"
 },
 "standing": {
  "titles": [
   {
    "code_name": "P-01",
    "display_name": "4/5 result calls right · week of 19 Oct 2026",
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    "ci_high": null,
    "ci_level": null,
    "fact": "4/5 result calls right · week of 19 Oct 2026",
    "rationale": "4 of 5 result calls right in the week 19 Oct 2026–25 Oct 2026 (Monday to Sunday, UTC), one call per match. On 5 of these matches the other tipsters and sources were right 74.2% of the time. Data: live record. Term: a dated fact.",
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    "rules_version": "catalog-1",
    "methodology_version": "catalog-1",
    "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
    "valid_until": null,
    "anchor_id": "standing-p-01-w-56005e959f-event",
    "alt": "Marco Avena · 4/5 result calls right · week of 19 Oct 2026 · Tracked by Forecast Record",
    "csv_url": null,
    "embed": "<a href=\"https://forecastrecord.com/authors/marco-avena/#title-week-record\" rel=\"nofollow\"><img src=\"https://forecastrecord.com/b/e-a612ef81b148d24dfbeab7a2/p-01-w-56005e959f-event-m-light.svg\" alt=\"Marco Avena · 4/5 result calls right · week of 19 Oct 2026 · Tracked by Forecast Record\" width=\"721\" height=\"28\" loading=\"lazy\"></a>",
    "neighbours": [],
    "window_words": "On show until 22 Feb 2027",
    "measure_words": null,
    "amount_words": null,
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    "title_tier": "dated_record",
    "status": "active",
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    "event_at": "2026-10-25",
    "evidence_through": "2026-10-25",
    "earned_at": "2026-10-25",
    "published_at": "2026-10-26",
    "visible_until": "2027-02-22",
    "badge_label": "4/5 · week of 19 Oct",
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     {
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      "match": "AFC Ajax v Atalanta",
      "said_text": "1X2, match result: Atalanta at 3.1",
      "outcome_label": "wrong",
      "evidence_price": 3.2,
      "comparison": "8 other tipsters and sources on this match, 5 right (5 named home win, 3 named draw)",
      "url": "/authors/marco-avena/picks/6/#pick-n-ffc4ca5bcb3d68d380432e08"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-694d4c766078601bc9a1d2b4",
      "data": "2026-10-23",
      "match": "Torino v Monza",
      "said_text": "1X2, match result: Torino at 2.1",
      "outcome_label": "right",
      "evidence_price": 2.1,
      "comparison": "17 other tipsters and sources on this match, 14 right (14 named home win, 2 named draw, 1 named away win)",
      "url": "/authors/marco-avena/picks/6/#pick-n-694d4c766078601bc9a1d2b4"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-d4940ea9eb2115a89f3b6961",
      "data": "2026-10-24",
      "match": "Arsenal v Everton",
      "said_text": "1X2, match result: Arsenal at 1.45",
      "outcome_label": "right",
      "evidence_price": null,
      "comparison": "41 other tipsters and sources on this match, 40 right (40 named home win, 1 named draw)",
      "url": "/authors/marco-avena/picks/6/#pick-n-d4940ea9eb2115a89f3b6961"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-a6d9228c4d0d0318904e6116",
      "data": "2026-10-24",
      "match": "SSC Napoli v AS Roma",
      "said_text": "1X2, match result: draw at 3.4",
      "outcome_label": "right",
      "evidence_price": null,
      "comparison": "28 other tipsters and sources on this match, 8 right (17 named away win, 8 named draw, 3 named home win)",
      "url": "/authors/marco-avena/picks/6/#pick-n-a6d9228c4d0d0318904e6116"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-0329c16a9dc49d5e91431b25",
      "data": "2026-10-25",
      "match": "Inter v Fiorentina",
      "said_text": "1X2, match result: Inter at 1.33",
      "outcome_label": "right",
      "evidence_price": 1.34,
      "comparison": "18 other tipsters and sources on this match, 18 right (18 named home win)",
      "url": "/authors/marco-avena/picks/6/#pick-n-0329c16a9dc49d5e91431b25"
     }
    ],
    "evidence_total": 5,
    "badge": {
     "variants": [
      {
       "size": "l",
       "theme": "light",
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       "url": "/b/e-a612ef81b148d24dfbeab7a2/p-01-w-56005e959f-event-l-light.svg"
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       "size": "l",
       "theme": "dark",
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       "height": 40,
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      {
       "size": "m",
       "theme": "light",
       "width": 721,
       "height": 28,
       "url": "/b/e-a612ef81b148d24dfbeab7a2/p-01-w-56005e959f-event-m-light.svg"
      },
      {
       "size": "m",
       "theme": "dark",
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       "url": "/b/e-a612ef81b148d24dfbeab7a2/p-01-w-56005e959f-event-m-dark.svg"
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      {
       "size": "s",
       "theme": "light",
       "width": 563,
       "height": 20,
       "url": "/b/e-a612ef81b148d24dfbeab7a2/p-01-w-56005e959f-event-s-light.svg"
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      {
       "size": "s",
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       "height": 20,
       "url": "/b/e-a612ef81b148d24dfbeab7a2/p-01-w-56005e959f-event-s-dark.svg"
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     ],
     "card_url": "/b/e-a612ef81b148d24dfbeab7a2/p-01-w-56005e959f-event-card.svg"
    },
    "profile_anchor": "title-56005e959fef",
    "chance": {
     "contract_version": 1,
     "kind": "at_least",
     "priced": 5,
     "unpriced": 0,
     "hits": 4,
     "probability": 0.174291,
     "one_in": 6,
     "log10": -0.76,
     "words": "1 in 6",
     "rule": "probability of at least this many correct picks if each pick came in with its market probability (1/price); exact Poisson-binomial",
     "note": "market prices include the bookmaker margin, so the chance is slightly overstated — a cautious figure"
    },
    "embed_anchor": "title-week-record"
   }
  ],
  "publication_mode": "top20",
  "empty_reason": null,
  "rules_version": "catalog-1",
  "insufficient": [],
  "badges_on_page": 0,
  "header_titles": [
   {
    "title_id": "zk-56005e959fef26c6327d",
    "code_name": "P-01",
    "title_tier": "dated_record",
    "badge_label": "4/5 · week of 19 Oct",
    "body": "4/5 result calls right · week of 19 Oct 2026",
    "tier": null,
    "provenance": "live",
    "anchor_id": "title-56005e959fef",
    "event_at": "2026-10-25",
    "url": "/titles/p-01-week-record/#zk-56005e959fef26c6327d"
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  ],
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  "recent_record": [
   {
    "code_name": "P-01",
    "body": "4/5 result calls right · week of 19 Oct 2026",
    "event_at": "2026-10-25",
    "url": null,
    "provenance": "live",
    "anchor_id": "title-56005e959fef"
   }
  ],
  "record_details": [],
  "history": []
 },
 "retro": null,
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "threshold_percent": "5",
  "rows": [
   {
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "basis_words": "our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off)",
    "basis_short": "Our market price when we first recorded the pick",
    "compared": 51,
    "above": 1,
    "above_share_percent": "2.0",
    "below": 5,
    "within": 45,
    "median_difference_percent": "-0.9",
    "not_comparable": 0,
    "disputed": 0,
    "status": "calculated"
   }
  ],
  "examples": [
   {
    "url": "/authors/marco-avena/picks/11/#pick-n-c396c133f78ee807f551f798",
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "stated": "2.00",
    "market": "2.20",
    "difference_percent": "-9.1"
   },
   {
    "url": "/authors/marco-avena/picks/10/#pick-n-951f5e700ff655ebad12d6d5",
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "stated": "1.65",
    "market": "1.81",
    "difference_percent": "-8.8"
   }
  ],
  "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way."
 },
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "sportytrader.it",
   "url": "https://www.sportytrader.it/pronostici/inter-como-385802/"
  },
  "observed_from": "2026-10-09",
  "observed_to": "2026-11-06",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "market_price",
  "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price",
  "restored": false,
  "headline_kind": "live_snapshot",
  "headline_part": "live",
  "settled_picks": 47,
  "matches": 25,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": -55615,
  "staked_hundredths": 470000,
  "return_percent": "-11.83",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2026-10-10",
  "period_to": "2026-11-07",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "2.2",
  "short_history": false,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record recorded 47 settled live picks by Marco Avena before kick-off across 25 matches between 10 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −11.8% on the total staked. Of the 188 predictions we hold for Marco Avena, 91 are linked to matches: 88 were recorded by us before kick-off and 3 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled live picks",
    "value": "47",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "25",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "−556.15 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "value": "−11.8%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": "95% interval −39.3% to +19.0%"
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [
   {
    "date": "2026-10-10",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -13711,
    "n": 3
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-18",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -27151,
    "n": 6
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-22",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -57151,
    "n": 9
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-23",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -35439,
    "n": 12
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-24",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -7539,
    "n": 14
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-25",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -14149,
    "n": 16
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-28",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -29986,
    "n": 21
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-29",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -33657,
    "n": 23
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-31",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -9674,
    "n": 27
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-01",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -59674,
    "n": 32
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-02",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -62874,
    "n": 37
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-04",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -36174,
    "n": 40
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-05",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -46174,
    "n": 41
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-06",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -43713,
    "n": 44
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-07",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -55615,
    "n": 47
   }
  ],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": {
    "part": "live",
    "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.",
    "settled_picks": 47,
    "matches": 25,
    "match_dates": 15,
    "period_from": "2026-10-10",
    "period_to": "2026-11-07",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": -55615,
    "low": {
     "date": "2026-11-02",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -62874,
     "after_picks": 37
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2026-10-24",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -7539,
     "after_picks": 14
    },
    "line_drawn": true,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2026-10-10",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -13711,
      "n": 3,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-18",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -27151,
      "n": 6,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-22",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -57151,
      "n": 9,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-23",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -35439,
      "n": 12,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-24",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -7539,
      "n": 14,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-25",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -14149,
      "n": 16,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-28",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -29986,
      "n": 21,
      "picks": 5
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-29",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -33657,
      "n": 23,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-31",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -9674,
      "n": 27,
      "picks": 4
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-01",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -59674,
      "n": 32,
      "picks": 5
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-02",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -62874,
      "n": 37,
      "picks": 5
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-04",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -36174,
      "n": 40,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-05",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -46174,
      "n": 41,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-06",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -43713,
      "n": 44,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-07",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -55615,
      "n": 47,
      "picks": 3
     }
    ]
   },
   "archived": null
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record recorded 47 settled live picks by Marco Avena before kick-off across 25 matches between 10 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −11.8% on the total staked. Of the 188 predictions we hold for Marco Avena, 91 are linked to matches: 88 were recorded by us before kick-off and 3 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/marco-avena/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "2.2"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 188,
   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 97,
   "proven_predictions": 88,
   "proven_checked": 82,
   "proven_measured": 47,
   "proven_dates": 19,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 88,
     "checked": 82,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": {
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      "void": 0,
      "matches": 25,
      "net_points_hundredths": -55615,
      "staked_hundredths": 470000,
      "return_percent": "-11.83",
      "interval_low": "-39.27",
      "interval_high": "19.01",
      "interval_note": null,
      "period_from": "2026-10-10",
      "period_to": "2026-11-07",
      "method_version": "2.2",
      "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0",
      "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.1",
      "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 15
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "author_price",
       "picks": 47,
       "return_main_percent": "-11.83",
       "return_other_percent": "-12.68",
       "settled_excluding_void": 47,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -55615,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -59600,
       "period_from": "2026-10-10",
       "period_to": "2026-11-07"
      },
      {
       "price": "Closing price",
       "series_code": "closing_live",
       "picks": 44,
       "return_main_percent": "-5.82",
       "return_other_percent": "-4.12",
       "settled_excluding_void": 44,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -25615,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -18144,
       "period_from": "2026-10-10",
       "period_to": "2026-11-07"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
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   "quote": "Sunderland vince\n\nQuota\n1.41",
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   "quote": "Combo Doppia Chance X2 + Over 2.5\n\n1.70",
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   "quote": "Il pronostico della partita tra Torreense e Sunderland è: Doppia Chance X2 + Over 2.5.",
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   "quote": "No Gol\n\nQuota\n2.25",
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    "author_cumulative_hundredths": -34127,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 87526
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-11-06T19:45:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": -27301,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 94352
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-11-07T14:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": -19203,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 102450
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-11-07T14:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": -29203,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 92450
   }
  ],
  "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out."
 },
 "pagination": {
  "per_page": 20,
  "total": 188,
  "pages": 11,
  "page_urls": [
   "/authors/marco-avena/",
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   "/authors/marco-avena/picks/3/",
   "/authors/marco-avena/picks/4/",
   "/authors/marco-avena/picks/5/",
   "/authors/marco-avena/picks/6/",
   "/authors/marco-avena/picks/7/",
   "/authors/marco-avena/picks/8/",
   "/authors/marco-avena/picks/9/",
   "/authors/marco-avena/picks/10/",
   "/authors/marco-avena/picks/11/"
  ],
  "groups": {
   "settled": 51,
   "pending": 4,
   "excluded": 133
  },
  "continuation": "by_time",
  "page": 1,
  "first": 1,
  "last": 20,
  "author_url": "/authors/marco-avena/",
  "current": true
 },
 "title_tag": "Marco Avena Predictions: This Week's Picks & Verified Record",
 "calculator": {
  "url": "/tools/luck-or-skill/?n=47&odds=1.96&roi=-11.8&src=record",
  "n": 47,
  "odds": "1.96",
  "roi": "-11.8",
  "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price"
 },
 "person": {
  "person_id": "o-a612ef81b148d24dfbeab7a2",
  "type_code": "individual",
  "name_shown": "Marco Avena",
  "main_entity": "e-a612ef81b148d24dfbeab7a2",
  "identity": {
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   "source_list": []
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  "platform_list": [
   {
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    "medium": "SportyTrader.it",
    "channel": "section pages",
    "domain": "sportytrader.it",
    "source_info": "sportytrader-it",
    "byline": "Marco Avena",
    "url": "/sources/sportytrader-it/",
    "summary": {
     "statements": 914,
     "predictions": 188,
     "settled_picks": 47,
     "headline_kind": "live_snapshot",
     "return_percent": -11.83,
     "headline_part": "live",
     "period_from": "2026-10-09",
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 },
 "data_revision": {
  "data_version": "2026-11-07.2",
  "updated": "2026-11-07",
  "current_release": "2026-11-07.2",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
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  "sample": {
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   "composition_hash": "c544a8b129920fe2fb44b0b57ff0fbc9e7230cf82c774aa0b6a8e8ff7a4f466c"
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 },
 "number_changes": [
  {
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    "text": "−19.30% on 35 settled picks across 21 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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    "text": "−11.83% on 47 settled picks across 25 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
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    "text": "−16.91% on 32 settled picks across 19 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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    "text": "−19.30% on 35 settled picks across 21 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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    "composition_hash": "4556e189953f5e770e29e7b69751ecf5d11197b222994f126a260adad534c554",
    "text": "−16.98% on 30 settled picks across 18 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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    "return_percent": "-16.91",
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    "composition_hash": "1903c2378b7a3a1f6a196f88378d1bec41001d9c70ed86e58f4d74d70fd0dd50",
    "text": "−16.91% on 32 settled picks across 19 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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  {
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   "url": "/authors/marco-avena/",
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    "text": "−14.12% on 29 settled picks across 17 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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    "return_percent": "-16.98",
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  {
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   "at": "2026-11-05T05:43:48.128Z",
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   "url": "/authors/marco-avena/",
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    "text": "−26.01% on 26 settled picks across 15 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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    "text": "−14.12% on 29 settled picks across 17 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
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  {
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    "composition_hash": "31387895046fe50db1697d2a08d5f85b7dbcdd65b186b33cad3b4361b9e78137",
    "text": "−22.71% on 23 settled picks across 13 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
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    "return_percent": "-26.01",
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    "text": "−26.01% on 26 settled picks across 15 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
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   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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  {
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   "url": "/authors/marco-avena/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
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    "composition_hash": "b75916142cb89cc88d918bae8bdff932c4d39ebdfe7d3ca951966f388d6f642e",
    "text": "−11.12% on 20 settled picks across 11 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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   "after": {
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    "return_percent": "-22.71",
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    "composition_hash": "31387895046fe50db1697d2a08d5f85b7dbcdd65b186b33cad3b4361b9e78137",
    "text": "−22.71% on 23 settled picks across 13 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture); also 1 new result.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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  {
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   "at": "2026-10-31T21:01:38.334Z",
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   "url": "/authors/marco-avena/",
   "category": "new_results",
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    "return_percent": "-18.73",
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    "composition_hash": "58b3dbd4c2b8595a50f9fddfe8f2fd69af7d6f7ab5689272c6ccebd7e9a7be0d",
    "text": "−18.73% on 18 settled picks across 10 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-31.2",
    "return_percent": "-11.12",
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    "series_code": "market_price",
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    "composition_hash": "b75916142cb89cc88d918bae8bdff932c4d39ebdfe7d3ca951966f388d6f642e",
    "text": "−11.12% on 20 settled picks across 11 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "2 new settled picks from matches played after the previous data version.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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  },
  {
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   "at": "2026-10-30T08:26:41.528Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-30.1",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-29.1",
   "url": "/authors/marco-avena/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
   "category_words": "Coverage extended",
   "before": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-29.1",
    "return_percent": "-18.78",
    "settled_picks": 16,
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    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
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    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "2de014a70da11d4025c0c56e087259f3f186be7561c48f09ac5e471bfe8e1406",
    "text": "−18.78% on 16 settled picks across 9 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-30.1",
    "return_percent": "-18.73",
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    "composition_hash": "58b3dbd4c2b8595a50f9fddfe8f2fd69af7d6f7ab5689272c6ccebd7e9a7be0d",
    "text": "−18.73% on 18 settled picks across 10 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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  {
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   "at": "2026-10-29T20:28:50.091Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-29.1",
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   "url": "/authors/marco-avena/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
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   "before": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-27.1",
    "return_percent": "-12.92",
    "settled_picks": 11,
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    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "0400dd2d8341b8bf46215d3fa8c056d1aa867e61881f3911ddf19262d7547a12",
    "text": "−12.92% on 11 settled picks across 6 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-29.1",
    "return_percent": "-18.78",
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    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
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    "composition_hash": "2de014a70da11d4025c0c56e087259f3f186be7561c48f09ac5e471bfe8e1406",
    "text": "−18.78% on 16 settled picks across 9 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 3 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture); also 2 new results.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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  {
   "id": "zc-ea22c5619eedfc403e29",
   "at": "2026-10-27T07:47:02.386Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-27.1",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-26.1",
   "url": "/authors/marco-avena/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
   "category_words": "Coverage extended",
   "before": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-24.4",
    "return_percent": "-8.44",
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    "series_code": "market_price",
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    "composition_hash": "aedbadfbce62b6bdccdbbaccbd0f835d7e9f98fae2bb288d40336ea3ecaa9ce4",
    "text": "−75.99 points on 9 settled picks across 5 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-27.1",
    "return_percent": "-12.92",
    "settled_picks": 11,
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    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "0400dd2d8341b8bf46215d3fa8c056d1aa867e61881f3911ddf19262d7547a12",
    "text": "−12.92% on 11 settled picks across 6 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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  {
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   "at": "2026-10-24T16:52:01.947Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-24.4",
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   "url": "/authors/marco-avena/",
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    "text": "−119.99 points on 8 settled picks across 4 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
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    "text": "−75.99 points on 9 settled picks across 5 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous data version.",
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   },
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  },
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    "text": "−119.99 points on 8 settled picks across 4 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 3 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
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   },
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   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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    "text": "−137.11 points on 3 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
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   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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    "text": "−237.11 points on 4 settled picks across 3 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
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   "url": "/authors/marco-avena/",
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    "composition_hash": "4ad168b4a5b37c9e6acc12b15d289fce82f875d9ae039ce5e0036f55e1b79f94",
    "text": "−137.11 points on 3 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
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   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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 ],
 "current_predictions": {
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    "competition": "Serie A",
    "author_said": "Both teams to score: yes at 1.44",
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     },
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