{ "schema_name": "page", "schema_version": "2.0", "page_type": "history", "url": "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/2/", "canonical": "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/2/", "language": "en", "hreflang": [], "translations": [], "heading": "Marcel Niesner — football predictions, page 2 of 33", "description": "Predictions 1–20 of 630 by Marcel Niesner, with outcomes in words and links to the evidence.", "first_paragraph": { "body": "Page 2 of 33 of the predictions by Marcel Niesner recorded by Forecast Record: predictions 1–20 of 630 in the order we recorded them, earliest first; as of 7 November 2026. Each row links to its evidence, and the summary of the record is on the profile page.", "key_number": "630", "data": "2026-11-07", "source_info": "our own evidence archive", "brand": "Forecast Record" }, "indexable": false, "noindex_reason": "too_few_settled", "indexing_threshold": { "settled_count": 0, "date_count": 0, "required_settled": 0, "required_dates": 0 }, "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "built_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "lastmod": "2026-11-07T07:23:48.684Z", "content_hash": null, "meaning_hash": "0b3ef09a2f07052df84906380f3e4834cf161e3401fa7f69c20c891c7f5ec065", "dependency_group": "author:e-b832253b722962f4be645c74", "release_id": "20261107-195223", "markup": [ { "type_code": "WebPage", "allowed": true, "cause": null }, { "type_code": "Organization", "allowed": true, "cause": null } ], "exports": [ { "type_code": "json", "url": "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/2/index.json", "bytes": null } ], "modules": { "affiliate": false, "api": true, "compare_yourself": false }, "affiliate_block": null, "restrictions": { "name_withdrawn": false, "tracker_number": null, "withdrawn_quotes": [], "removed_at": null, "cause": null, "suspended_records": [], "withdrawal_log_number": 0 }, "page_links": { "methodology": "/methodology/", "right_of_reply": "/right-of-reply/", "source_coverage": "/coverage/", "corrections_log": "/corrections/", "api": "/api/", "claim": "/claim/" }, "entity": { "id": "e-b832253b722962f4be645c74", "public_name": "Marcel Niesner", "tracker_number": 2766, "status": "active", "inactive_since": null, "verified_creator": false, "observation_period": { "since": "2026-10-09", "until": "2026-10-16" }, "platform_list": [ { "medium": "website", "handle": null, "url": null, "link_confirmed": false, "show": true } ], "comment": null }, "recorded_picks": [ { "record_id": "n-f99b1222337beb0a1be409ce", "url": "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/2/#pick-n-f99b1222337beb0a1be409ce", "match": "Manchester United v AFC Bournemouth", "match_url": null, "kickoff": "2025-12-15T20:00:00.000Z", "competition": "Premier League", "lead_hours": -7146.4, "market_code": "total", "author_said": "Over/Under 3 goals: over 3 at 1.81", "quote": null, "group": "settled", "outcome": "Won", "claim_outcome": "Won", "final_score": "4-4", "reason": null, "reason_code": null, "points_hundredths": 7500, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored", "author_price": "1.81", "settled_price": "1.7500", "published_at": "2025-12-15T07:01:21.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:23:25.126Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-f99b1222337beb0a1be409ce", "quote_text": "Unser Tipp\n\nÜber 3 Tore\n\nbet365\n\n1.81", "fragment_from": 514, "fragment_to": 551, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/manchester-united-vs-bournemouth-tipp-prognose-quoten-15-12-2025", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Marcel Niesner", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "7c05fbb25384d6715525a75c8dce34711ba101bdf4b02117c94780578d3959fd", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2025-12-15T07:01:21.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-09T14:23:25.126Z", "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:18.008Z", "statement_class": "priced", "status": "too_late", "cause": "counted in the restored-history series", "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": null, "display_name": "Manchester United v AFC Bournemouth", "competition_name": "Premier League", "starts_at": "2025-12-15T20:00:00.000Z", "url": null, "scoreline": "4-4" }, "market_label": "Over/Under 3 goals", "outcome_label": "over 3", "odds_set": { "by_author": "1.81", "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": "1.8013", "closing_source": "aggregator closing price" }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "win", "simulation_change_hundredths": 8013, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": "ours", "series_label": "Restored, at the closing market price", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "found_post_match", "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2025-12-15T07:01:21.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2025-12-15T07:01:21.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-09T14:23:25.126Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "found_after_match", "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Over/Under 3 goals", "choice": "over 3", "author_odds": "1.81", "market_key": "total", "choice_key": "over", "period": "match", "line": "3", "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Over/Under 3 goals: over 3 at 1.81" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "win", "scoreline": "4-4", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "in_words": "Won: the final score was Manchester United 4-4 AFC Bournemouth." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "96d9a8fdf875ef83a608731ecdacc101898cec6a34608a0f23243df47e370c13", "series_key": "retro_author_price", "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Over/Under 3 goals", "choice": "over 3", "decimal_odds": "1.81", "odds_role": "author_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "win", "result_words": "Won", "change_hundredths": 8100, "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:18.002Z", "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false }, { "operation_id": "741ae05556d8ffc9241491fd4e45c71a5c15fe0d864f0912e387e7544f1df6b5", "series_key": "retro_market_closing", "series_label": "Restored, at the closing market price", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Over/Under 3 goals", "choice": "over 3", "decimal_odds": "1.8013", "odds_role": "closing_odds", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "win", "result_words": "Won", "change_hundredths": 8013, "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:18.008Z", "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false }, { "operation_id": "6a5e76b79f337a58e30bd8769836d86325a8a27a4e312b59fec7414079b9e72e", "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm", "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Over/Under 3 goals", "choice": "over 3", "decimal_odds": "1.7500", "odds_role": "closing_odds", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "win", "result_words": "Won", "change_hundredths": 7500, "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:18.013Z", "methodology_version": "retro-1.1", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "settled_pick", "authorship": { "material_author": "Marcel Niesner", "publisher": "wettbasis.com", "forecaster": "Marcel Niesner", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/manchester-united-vs-bournemouth-tipp-prognose-quoten-15-12-2025", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null, "choice_words": "over 3 (Over/Under 3 goals)" } }, { "record_id": "n-d89fd396a1be899000cca621", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Unser Tipp\n\nX2 & Unter 4.5\n\nOddset\n\n1.75", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-10-05T08:34:04.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:25:40.918Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-0e7ef0ae37954e37090ae8c5", "url": "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/2/#pick-n-0e7ef0ae37954e37090ae8c5", "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Unter 2.75 AH\n\nbet365\n\n1.72", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-05-03T18:32:01.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:30:14.973Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": { "at": "2026-10-14T02:01:01.924Z", "field": "line sign", "reason": "Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and the outcome is worked out on it. This pick was never executed, so no number changes.", "version": 2, "url": "/corrections/#c-f1b2048399e9", "text": "Corrected on 14 October 2026: Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and" }, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-0e7ef0ae37954e37090ae8c5", "quote_text": "Unter 2.75 AH\n\nbet365\n\n1.72", "fragment_from": 503, "fragment_to": 530, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/arsenal-vs-bournemouth-tipp-prognose-quoten-03-05-2025", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Marcel Niesner", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "219182929eda84f86bed71dc56ada2e6b5fa1286eae27de9562e25fe2d8b79e3", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2025-05-03T18:32:01.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-09T14:30:14.973Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "priced", "status": "too_late", "cause": "", "cause_code": "too_late", "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "found_post_match", "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2025-05-03T18:32:01.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2025-05-03T18:32:01.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-09T14:30:14.973Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "found_after_match", "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [ { "at": "2026-10-14T02:01:01.924Z", "field_name": "line sign", "was": "Over/Under −2.75 goals · under −2.75", "now": "Over/Under 2.75 goals · under 2.75", "cause": "Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and the outcome is worked out on it. This pick was never executed, so no number changes." } ], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": null, "correction": { "at": "2026-10-14T02:01:01.924Z", "field": "line sign", "reason": "Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and the outcome is worked out on it. This pick was never executed, so no number changes.", "version": 2, "url": "/corrections/#c-f1b2048399e9", "text": "Corrected on 14 October 2026: Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and" }, "choice_words": "a pick" } }, { "record_id": "n-053daa2054e434a85260bf32", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "geht mein Manchester City vs. Liverpool Tipp auf Über 3.5 Tore. Für mindestens vier Treffer nach 90 Minuten wird bei Merkur Bets eine 2.07 angeboten.", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-02-23T18:35:30.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:35:13.313Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-3f5922d3bf84cb40eb3dcf6b", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "gestalten sich zwischen Manchester City und Liverpool die Wettquoten auf ein Marmoush-Treffer sehr interessant. In der Bet365 App wird immerhin eine 3.40 in der Spitze angeboten.", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-02-23T18:35:30.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:35:13.313Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-6e5946e366e4fe4c1455d1b7", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Stattdessen lächelt mich die hohe 3.90er-Quote bei Bwin für ein Unentschieden an", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-02-23T18:35:30.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:35:13.313Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-3f40d4fa1884c5f80789f84d", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Wer diese Statistik zum Anlass nehmen möchte, um auch am Montagabend auf einen „Zu Null“-Erfolg des Favoriten zu wetten, kann dafür vor dem Spitzenspiel Leeds vs. Sunderland Wettquoten in Höhe von…", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-02-17T06:57:18.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:36:15.561Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-bd5b65b0173cc31f37b26682", "url": "/authors/marcel-niesner/picks/2/#pick-n-bd5b65b0173cc31f37b26682", "match": "Leeds United v Sunderland", "match_url": null, "kickoff": "2025-02-17T20:00:00.000Z", "competition": "EFL Championship", "lead_hours": -14370.6, "market_code": "handicap_asian", "author_said": "Asian handicap -1.5: Leeds United -1.5 at 2.48", "quote": null, "group": "settled", "outcome": "Lost", "claim_outcome": "Lost", "final_score": "2-1", "reason": null, "reason_code": null, "points_hundredths": -10000, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored", "author_price": "2.48", "settled_price": "2.5150", "published_at": "2025-02-17T06:57:18.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:36:15.561Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-bd5b65b0173cc31f37b26682", "quote_text": "Vor dem Hintergrund, dass 17 der insgesamt 20 Saisonsiege mit mindestens zwei Toren Vorsprung gelangen und die Black Cats zuletzt ohnehin mit ein paar Defensivproblemen zu kämpfen hat, tendiere ich auch am Montagabend dazu, zwischen Leeds und Sunderland einen Tipp auf den Handicap-Erfolg der Hausherren (-1,5) abzugeben. Für einen Heimsieg mit zwei oder mehr Treffern Differenz wird eine stolze 2.48 offeriert, die ich mit vier Units als Einsatz anspiele.", "fragment_from": 7077, "fragment_to": 7533, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/leeds-vs-sunderland-tipp-prognose-quoten-17-02-2025", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Marcel Niesner", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "1a9aafdfa566142e82e30a10def59fe8cadeb5de0a299e2836f266ef142be3a1", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2025-02-17T06:57:18.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-09T14:36:15.561Z", "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:17.992Z", "statement_class": "priced", "status": "too_late", "cause": "counted in the restored-history series", "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": null, "display_name": "Leeds United v Sunderland", "competition_name": "EFL Championship", "starts_at": "2025-02-17T20:00:00.000Z", "url": null, "scoreline": "2-1" }, "market_label": "Asian handicap -1.5", "outcome_label": "Leeds United -1.5", "odds_set": { "by_author": "2.48", "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": "2.5150", "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)" }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "loss", "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": "ours", "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "found_post_match", "provenance_words": "Found after the match; 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