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"speaker": "Lorenz Lomme", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "218572dc0fcd8dce892139922f6388d40596f94379f03274fb5b936d8b11175a", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-10-20T17:29:37.799Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": null, "fragment_basis": "no", "source_page_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-10-20T17:29:37.799Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [ "no_date" ], "flag_words": "The source states no publication date.", "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null } ], "excluded_from_feed": { "ads": 3, "service": 2, "ruleset_version": "3" }, "standing": null, "retro": null, "late": null, "price_vs_market": { "contract_version": "1", "threshold_percent": "5", "rows": [ { "basis": "snapshot", "basis_words": "our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off)", "basis_short": "Our market price when we first recorded the pick", "compared": 13, "above": 0, "above_share_percent": "0.0", "below": 0, "within": 13, "median_difference_percent": "0.0", "not_comparable": 0, "disputed": 0, "status": "calculated" } ], "examples": [], "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way." }, "record_summary": { "contract_version": "1", "entity_type": "person", "entity_words": "Individual author", "source": { "name": "sportytrader.nl", "url": "https://www.sportytrader.nl/voorspellingen-tips/sint-truiden-sk-brann-384741/" }, "observed_from": "2026-10-12", "observed_to": "2026-11-04", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "state": "settled", "series_code": "market_price", "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price", "restored": false, "headline_kind": "live_snapshot", "headline_part": "live", "settled_picks": 14, "matches": 12, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -35478, "staked_hundredths": 140000, "return_percent": "-25.34", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "period_from": "2026-10-14", "period_to": "2026-11-05", "status": "calculated", "method_version": "2.2", "short_history": true, "reason": null, "reasons": [], "sentence": "Forecast Record recorded 14 settled live picks by Lorenz Lomme before kick-off across 12 matches between 14 October and 5 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −25.3% on the total staked. Of the 24 predictions we hold for Lorenz Lomme, 20 are linked to matches: 20 were recorded by us before kick-off. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "numbers": [ { "label": "Settled live picks", "value": "14", "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick", "note": null }, { "label": "Matches", "value": "12", "anchor": "/methodology/#match", "note": null }, { "label": "Net result", "value": "−354.78 points", "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement", "note": "100 points per pick" }, { "label": "Return at our recorded market price", "value": "−25.3%", "anchor": "/methodology/#roi", "note": "95% interval −66.5% to +15.9%" } ], "limitations": [], "other_series": [], "return_over_time": [ { "date": "2026-10-14", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -5600, "n": 2 }, { "date": "2026-10-15", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -25600, "n": 4 }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -15600, "n": 5 }, { "date": "2026-10-22", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -7908, "n": 6 }, { "date": "2026-10-31", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -9610, "n": 8 }, { "date": "2026-11-04", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -15002, "n": 10 }, { "date": "2026-11-05", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -35478, "n": 14 } ], "return_over_time_parts": { "live": { "part": "live", "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "x_axis": "match_date", "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.", "settled_picks": 14, "matches": 12, "match_dates": 7, "period_from": "2026-10-14", "period_to": "2026-11-05", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "final_points_hundredths": -35478, "low": { "date": "2026-11-05", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -35478, "after_picks": 14 }, "high": { "date": "2026-10-14", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -5600, "after_picks": 2 }, "line_drawn": true, "steps": [ { "date": "2026-10-14", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -5600, "n": 2, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2026-10-15", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -25600, "n": 4, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -15600, "n": 5, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-22", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -7908, "n": 6, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-31", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -9610, "n": 8, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2026-11-04", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -15002, "n": 10, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2026-11-05", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -35478, "n": 14, "picks": 4 } ] }, "archived": null }, "author_response": null, "cite": { "text": "Forecast Record recorded 14 settled live picks by Lorenz Lomme before kick-off across 12 matches between 14 October and 5 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −25.3% on the total staked. Of the 24 predictions we hold for Lorenz Lomme, 20 are linked to matches: 20 were recorded by us before kick-off. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/lorenz-lomme/", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "2.2" }, "origin": { "contract_version": "1", "predictions": 24, "under_review": 0, "no_match_linked": 4, "proven_predictions": 20, "proven_checked": 20, "proven_measured": 14, "proven_dates": 7, "parts": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.", "predictions": 20, "checked": 20, "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "series_code": "market_price", "main": { "settled_picks": 14, "void": 0, "matches": 12, "net_points_hundredths": -35478, "staked_hundredths": 140000, "return_percent": "-25.34", "interval_low": "-66.49", "interval_high": "15.89", "interval_note": null, "period_from": "2026-10-14", "period_to": "2026-11-05", "method_version": "2.2", "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0", "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.0", "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 5 }, "same_picks": [ { "price": "Author-quoted price", "series_code": "author_price", "picks": 13, "return_main_percent": "-19.60", "return_other_percent": "-20.54", "settled_excluding_void": 13, "net_main_points_hundredths": -25478, "net_other_points_hundredths": -26700, "period_from": "2026-10-14", "period_to": "2026-11-05" }, { "price": "Closing price", "series_code": "closing_live", "picks": 11, "return_main_percent": "-4.98", "return_other_percent": "-10.10", "settled_excluding_void": 11, "net_main_points_hundredths": -5478, "net_other_points_hundredths": -11113, "period_from": "2026-10-14", "period_to": "2026-11-05" } ], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 20, "priced": 14 }, "accuracy": { "picks": 14, "won": 6, "won_percent": "42.9", "implied_percent": "60.7", "left_out": 0, "by_market": [ { "market": "Match result", "won": 3, "picks": 8, "implied_percent": "57.7" }, { "market": "Over/under goals", "won": 3, "picks": 6, "implied_percent": "64.6" } ] }, "reviewed_after": { "predictions": 1, "right": 1, "wrong": 0, "other": 0 } }, { "code": "archived", "title": "Archived before kick-off", "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.", "predictions": 0, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null }, { "code": "found_after", "title": "Found after the match", "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.", "predictions": 0, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null } ] }, "live_alongside": null, "headline_record_ids": 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"match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "De voorspelling voor de wedstrijd tussen Anderlecht en FC Salzburg is: meer dan 2,5 goals.", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": null, "recorded_at": "2026-11-03T18:30:25.190Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-5267df166be4a99d53eab274", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Wedtip :\n\nBayern München wint de eerste helft\n\n1.68", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": null, "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T18:30:06.183Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-3d355f74ae182c4cfd854e30", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Wedtip :\n\nUnion Sint-Gillis wint\n\n1.32", "group": 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{ "kickoff": "2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -10000, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -10000 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -20000, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -20000 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -10000, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -10000 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -2308, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -2308 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-31T12:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 5990, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 5990 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-31T17:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -4010, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -4010 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-04T17:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -14010, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -14010 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-05T17:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -24010, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -24010 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-05T17:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -34010, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -34010 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-05T20:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -44010, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -44010 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-05T20:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -34486, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -34486 } ], "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. 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previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-a5b5a93c0fadb023cf8d", "at": "2026-11-06T14:46:17.511Z", "data_version": "2026-11-06.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-11-05.3", "url": "/authors/lorenz-lomme/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-11-05.1", "return_percent": "-21.79", "settled_picks": 9, "matches": 8, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "817cb090b4a6575410582f27e7e50932079a6a99f07eac3be845dbf135ad4aa7", "text": "−196.10 points on 9 settled picks across 8 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-11-06.1", "return_percent": "-30.84", "settled_picks": 13, "matches": 12, "void": 0, "series_code": 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"method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "6f90202f4045525226fae2d0a78a36150c0d69a56cd21f0f70506973556bdc6a", "text": "−96.10 points on 8 settled picks across 7 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-11-05.1", "return_percent": "-21.79", "settled_picks": 9, "matches": 8, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "817cb090b4a6575410582f27e7e50932079a6a99f07eac3be845dbf135ad4aa7", "text": "−196.10 points on 9 settled picks across 8 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-bfd34f02503a1837a7a9", "at": "2026-10-31T21:01:38.334Z", "data_version": "2026-10-31.2", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-31.1", "url": "/authors/lorenz-lomme/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-27.1", "return_percent": "-13.18", "settled_picks": 6, "matches": 5, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "1080704a67a2f5680529155787a558959cc1141364da286e3b7f402cc2f88437", "text": "−79.08 points on 6 settled picks across 5 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-31.2", "return_percent": "-12.01", "settled_picks": 8, "matches": 7, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "6f90202f4045525226fae2d0a78a36150c0d69a56cd21f0f70506973556bdc6a", "text": "−96.10 points on 8 settled picks across 7 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "2 new settled picks from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 2, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-9b44bb5613a3e9c941eb", "at": "2026-10-27T07:47:02.386Z", "data_version": "2026-10-27.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-26.1", "url": "/authors/lorenz-lomme/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-22.4", "return_percent": "-14.00", "settled_picks": 4, "matches": 3, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "a7a19c4d53546ddfa4984e2bf9040db336ec45f343dcb0705ba14ca737774c38", "text": "−56.00 points on 4 settled picks across 3 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-27.1", "return_percent": "-13.18", "settled_picks": 6, "matches": 5, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "1080704a67a2f5680529155787a558959cc1141364da286e3b7f402cc2f88437", "text": "−79.08 points on 6 settled picks across 5 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 2, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-fca2ed07d8abe3b8f12b", "at": "2026-10-22T13:04:00.441Z", "data_version": "2026-10-22.4", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-22.3", "url": "/authors/lorenz-lomme/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-21.3", "return_percent": "0.00", "settled_picks": 2, "matches": 2, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": 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"comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-363ab8adfe6b876fb830", "at": "2026-10-14T22:11:18.139Z", "data_version": "2026-10-14.3", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-14.2", "url": "/authors/lorenz-lomme/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": null, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-14.3", "return_percent": "-100.00", "settled_picks": 1, "matches": 1, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "b6cd6055488d2c1e52b820e9e789c9e1bd2b455d2c3f767c3b7600e9336a6238", "text": "−100.00 points on 1 settled pick across 1 match · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "First headline number for this record: 1 settled pick in the series “independent odds snapshot”.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, 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