{ "schema_name": "page", "schema_version": "2.0", "page_type": "author", "url": "/authors/lmguerra/", "canonical": "/authors/lmguerra/", "language": "en", "hreflang": [], "translations": [], "heading": "LMGuerra: Football Prediction Record", "description": "Verified record: 10 settled picks by LMGuerra recorded before kick-off across 6 matches, 10 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026: −30.4% at our recorded market prices.", "first_paragraph": { "body": "Forecast Record recorded 10 settled live picks by LMGuerra before kick-off across 6 matches between 10 and 30 October 2026. Won 2 of 8 non-void picks at our recorded market prices. Of the 24 predictions we hold for LMGuerra, 17 are linked to matches: 17 were recorded by us before kick-off. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "key_number": "10", "data": "2026-11-07", "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot", "brand": "Forecast Record" }, "indexable": false, "noindex_reason": "outside_core", "indexing_threshold": { "settled_count": 10, "date_count": 7, "required_settled": 10, "required_dates": 2 }, "data_date": "2026-11-07T18:07:03.652Z", "built_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "lastmod": "2026-11-08T02:12:33.000Z", "content_hash": null, "meaning_hash": "5875182e9cdb7e56d8f7ca8cda055fe24be6d80b59f6895465207f70ff3e8523", "dependency_group": "author:e-a8bdbd8a6421995af7d41813", "release_id": "20261107-195223", "markup": [ { "type_code": "WebPage", "allowed": true, "cause": null }, { "type_code": "Organization", "allowed": true, "cause": null }, { "type_code": "Person", "allowed": true, "cause": null } ], "exports": [ { "type_code": "json", "url": "/authors/lmguerra/index.json", "bytes": null }, { "type_code": "csv", "url": "/authors/lmguerra/picks.csv", "bytes": null } ], "modules": { "affiliate": true, "api": true, "compare_yourself": false }, "affiliate_block": { "container": true, "request_url": "/partnery/moi", "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.", "page_category": "author" }, "restrictions": { "name_withdrawn": false, "tracker_number": null, "withdrawn_quotes": [], "removed_at": null, "cause": null, "suspended_records": [], "withdrawal_log_number": 0 }, "page_links": { "methodology": "/methodology/", "right_of_reply": "/right-of-reply/", "source_coverage": "/coverage/", "corrections_log": "/corrections/", "api": "/api/", "claim": "/claim/" }, "entity": { "id": "e-a8bdbd8a6421995af7d41813", "public_name": "LMGuerra", "tracker_number": 2666, "status": "active", "inactive_since": null, "verified_creator": false, "observation_period": { "since": "2026-10-09", "until": "2026-11-07" }, "platform_list": [ { "medium": "website", "handle": null, "url": null, "link_confirmed": false, "show": true } ], "comment": null }, "headline_number": { "metric": { "metric_id": "p-e-a8bdbd8a6421995af7d41813-roi-market-price-90d-z99", "code_name": "roi_market_price", "display_name": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot", "window_kind": "90d", "window_from": "2026-08-09", "window_to": "2026-11-07", "amount": "-30.3863", "unit": "percent", "data_status": "calculated", "cause": null, "n_bets": 10, "n_events": 6, "n_void": 2, "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "ci_method": "not_estimated", "price_source": "market_price", "coverage_percent": "100.00", "breakdown": [], "methodology_version": "2.2", "data_date": "2026-11-07T18:07:03.652Z", "enough_for_ranking": false, "series_uid": null, "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot" }, "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 10 settled picks across 6 matches", "average_odds": "3.00", "odds_from_author": 10, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 }, "metrics": [], "history": [], "simulation": { "series_uid": "sr-c07f7af8c94c6ec856244185", "bankroll_hundredths": 975691, "reserve_hundredths": 20000, "issued_total_hundredths": 1000000, "top_up_count": 0, "profit_hundredths": -24309, "rewards_off": null, "initial_hundredths": 1000000, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "data_points": [ { "at": "2026-10-10T14:18:16.103Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 1000000, "profit_hundredths": 0, "outcome_id": "ish-89cace4246d882bfb92336f0" }, { "at": "2026-10-10T14:18:16.106Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 1000000, "profit_hundredths": 0, "outcome_id": "ish-9fd803bad11f753545924dbb" }, { "at": "2026-10-11T21:13:49.877Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 990000, "profit_hundredths": -10000, "outcome_id": "ish-b7511510b3b4e813bfe13aa7" }, { "at": "2026-10-13T21:11:08.880Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 999091, "profit_hundredths": -909, "outcome_id": "ish-f10f9e0a8df76264ac5f98db" }, { "at": "2026-10-19T21:09:40.951Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 999091, "profit_hundredths": -909, "outcome_id": "ish-503c3d72602898c104215ba4" }, { "at": "2026-10-20T21:08:15.654Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 994091, "profit_hundredths": -5909, "outcome_id": "ish-99e52388fe77347aa23dab6e" }, { "at": "2026-10-24T00:58:23.602Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 984091, "profit_hundredths": -15909, "outcome_id": "ish-5978414aacd2f000af301d97" }, { "at": "2026-10-24T01:03:02.543Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 974091, "profit_hundredths": -25909, "outcome_id": "ish-d842fa8ca633f27bfe9806e4" }, { "at": "2026-10-24T01:03:02.591Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 995691, "profit_hundredths": -4309, "outcome_id": "ish-fca5fb6401c39bd347ec9ace" }, { "at": "2026-10-30T22:10:43.899Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 985691, "profit_hundredths": -14309, "outcome_id": "ish-c5ace5b326642942922de363" }, { "at": "2026-10-30T22:10:43.927Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 975691, "profit_hundredths": -24309, "outcome_id": "ish-094cb04b0306b5082e988916" } ], "top_ups": [], "rule": "When the balance falls below 100 points and no bets are open, 10000 points are added; the remaining balance is kept. While bets are open we wait for settlement.", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot" }, "simulations": [], "completeness": { "detected": 46, "recognised": 24, "accepted": 17, "executed": 12, "calculated": 10, "gaps": [ { "cause": "not_supported", "figure": 5 }, { "cause": "disputed_reading", "figure": 4 }, { "cause": "other reading", "figure": 2 }, { "cause": "not_checked", "figure": 1 } ] }, "record_counts": { "dictionary_version": "1", "statements": 46, "of_them_restored": 0, "not_predictions": { "opinions": 8, "not_about_a_match": 14, "unclassified": 0 }, "predictions": 24, "predictions_restored": 0, "matches": 8, "admitted": 17, "qualifying_picks": 12, "qualifying_picks_restored": 0, "settled_picks": 10, "settled_picks_restored": 0, "series_list": [ { "code_name": "market_price", "derived": false, "is_restored": false, "qualifying_picks": 12, "settled_picks": 10, "void": 2, "pending_picks": 2, "matches": 6, "operations_settled": 10, 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Valencia y estará unas semanas", "fragment_from": 1811, "fragment_to": 1911, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://betbrothers.es/pronosticos-deportivos/elche-real-betis-la-liga-2026/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "LMGuerra", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "9c60fbbb0b7aab17f181eecc7fbda8056855d9e7fa87ec0456443ebda966109e", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-11-06T20:00:15.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-07T00:12:11.234Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-11-06T20:00:15.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-11-06T20:00:15.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-07T00:12:11.234Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-986acdcfd91a2991cf9fc7d3", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-986acdcfd91a2991cf9fc7d3", "quote_text": "Las apuestas deportivas colocan como favoritos a los visitantes, algo que parece totalmente lógico", "fragment_from": 640, "fragment_to": 738, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://betbrothers.es/pronosticos-deportivos/elche-real-betis-la-liga-2026/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "LMGuerra", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "9c60fbbb0b7aab17f181eecc7fbda8056855d9e7fa87ec0456443ebda966109e", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-11-06T20:00:15.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-07T00:12:11.234Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "opinion", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-11-06T20:00:15.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-11-06T20:00:15.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-07T00:12:11.234Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-780c8829ce42091c970e97ca", "url": "/authors/lmguerra/picks/3/#pick-n-780c8829ce42091c970e97ca", "quote_text": "creo que es muy interesante la apuesta de victoria del Betis y ambos equipos no marcan, a cuota 4.00 por euro jugado.", "fragment_from": 3818, "fragment_to": 3935, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://betbrothers.es/pronosticos-deportivos/elche-real-betis-la-liga-2026/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "LMGuerra", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "9c60fbbb0b7aab17f181eecc7fbda8056855d9e7fa87ec0456443ebda966109e", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-11-06T20:00:15.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-07T00:12:11.234Z", "executed_at": "2026-11-07T00:49:04.936Z", "statement_class": "priced", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": "s-1e7d28c11633", "display_name": "Elche — Real Betis", "competition_name": "LaLiga", "starts_at": 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"origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Match result and both teams to score", "choice": "Real Betis win, both teams to score: no", "author_odds": "4", "market_key": "both_teams_score_and_result", "choice_key": "2-no", "period": "match", "line": null, "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Match result and both teams to score: Real Betis win, both teams to score: no at 4" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "unknown", "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "kick-off 8 November 2026, 13:00 UTC", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Pending: kick-off 8 November 2026, 13:00 UTC." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "7f42c30377a85acd979c5da99a7ecbe4b3356dfcdedfda3512600a48f50c71fc", "series_key": "author_price", "series_label": "At the author's stated price", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": 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"2026-11-07T00:49:04.936Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "qualifying_pick", "authorship": { "material_author": "LMGuerra", "publisher": "betbrothers.es", "forecaster": "LMGuerra", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://betbrothers.es/pronosticos-deportivos/elche-real-betis-la-liga-2026/", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-70517992861efd2ddc6224e5", "url": "/authors/lmguerra/picks/3/#pick-n-70517992861efd2ddc6224e5", "quote_text": "la victoria del Betis a 2.13 en la casa de apuestas DAZNbet me parece uno de los pronósticos más interesantes de este fin de semana en la Primera División española.", "fragment_from": 3582, "fragment_to": 3746, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://betbrothers.es/pronosticos-deportivos/elche-real-betis-la-liga-2026/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "LMGuerra", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "9c60fbbb0b7aab17f181eecc7fbda8056855d9e7fa87ec0456443ebda966109e", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-11-06T20:00:15.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-07T00:12:11.234Z", "executed_at": "2026-11-07T00:49:04.536Z", "statement_class": "priced", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": "s-1e7d28c11633", "display_name": "Elche — Real Betis", "competition_name": "LaLiga", "starts_at": "2026-11-08T13:00:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/elche-vs-real-betis-2026-11-08/", "scoreline": null, "condition": "scheduled" }, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "outcome_label": "Real Betis", "odds_set": { 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"2026-10-16T21:52:06.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-10-16T21:52:06.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-17T00:22:08.205Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-9c04c837534b0db5e9c03de3", "url": "/authors/lmguerra/picks/2/#pick-n-9c04c837534b0db5e9c03de3", "quote_text": "Si queremos subir el nivel de dificultad de nuestra apuesta, podemos apostar por la victoria del Rayo y que ambos equipos no marcan. Esta opción nos la pagan a 4.00", "fragment_from": 3188, "fragment_to": 3352, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://betbrothers.es/pronosticos-deportivos/getafe-rayo-vallecano-la-liga-2026/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "LMGuerra", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "b48e2fb79458579a145ab338cee3c46eaec4e89ee8a8e6724a0e7131b9f41aef", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-16T21:52:06.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-17T00:22:08.205Z", "executed_at": "2026-10-24T01:00:31.736Z", "statement_class": "priced", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": "s-0565e66356f7", "display_name": "Getafe — Rayo Vallecano", "competition_name": "LaLiga", "starts_at": "2026-10-19T19:00:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/getafe-vs-rayo-vallecano-2026-10-19/", "scoreline": "1-1", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "Match result and both teams to score", "outcome_label": 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"betbrothers.es", "forecaster": "LMGuerra", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://betbrothers.es/pronosticos-deportivos/getafe-rayo-vallecano-la-liga-2026/", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-e6abe60b6a673648edff9005", "url": "/authors/lmguerra/picks/2/#pick-n-e6abe60b6a673648edff9005", "quote_text": "Mi pronóstico favorito es el draw no bet o hándicap asiático +0 a favor del Rayo, que podemos encontrar a cuota 1.85 en Casino Barcelona Apuestas.", "fragment_from": 2885, "fragment_to": 3031, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": 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En este caso, las casas de apuestas nos pagan 2.87 por euro apostado.", "fragment_from": 2967, "fragment_to": 3101, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://betbrothers.es/pronosticos-deportivos/villarreal-elche-la-liga-2026/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "LMGuerra", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "cbd9e3a769e9b75742e41d1df9414942895999e2933bb27a744f0194ccd60e36", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-16T14:11:37.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-16T14:22:01.329Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "priced", "status": "not_supported", "cause": "", "cause_code": "not_supported", "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, 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"n-4ba6a4526775a87ff1505d94", "url": "/authors/lmguerra/picks/2/#pick-n-4ba6a4526775a87ff1505d94", "quote_text": "nos podemos ir a un hándicap asiático -1 a favor del Villarreal que paga sobre 1.71 en la casa de apuestas Tonybet.", "fragment_from": 2734, "fragment_to": 2849, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://betbrothers.es/pronosticos-deportivos/villarreal-elche-la-liga-2026/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "LMGuerra", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "cbd9e3a769e9b75742e41d1df9414942895999e2933bb27a744f0194ccd60e36", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-16T14:11:37.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-16T14:22:01.329Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "priced", "status": "ambiguous", "cause": "", "cause_code": "ambiguous", "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": 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"odds_role": "market_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "void", "result_words": "Void", "change_hundredths": 0, "executed_at": "2026-10-10T03:28:23.921Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "settled_pick", "authorship": { "material_author": "LMGuerra", "publisher": "betbrothers.es", "forecaster": "LMGuerra", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://betbrothers.es/pronosticos-deportivos/rayo-vallecano-athletic-club-la-liga-2026/", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-7f1487015afbc62b8173184a", "url": "/authors/lmguerra/picks/2/#pick-n-7f1487015afbc62b8173184a", "quote_text": "Mi pronóstico favorito para este Rayo vs. Athletic es el hándicap +0.25 a favor del Rayo a cuota 1.65 en la casa de apuestas Tonybet.", "fragment_from": 2837, "fragment_to": 2970, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://betbrothers.es/pronosticos-deportivos/rayo-vallecano-athletic-club-la-liga-2026/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "LMGuerra", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "91584c05d38bec1fa71131a0a27d41003eeb8aa77c6e747a3f802e9d4718823d", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-09T01:09:06.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-09T14:07:15.190Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "priced", "status": "recognised", "cause": "", "cause_code": "disputed_reading", "event": { "event_id": "s-517779e59c16", "display_name": "Rayo Vallecano — Athletic Club", "competition_name": "LaLiga", "starts_at": "2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/rayo-vallecano-vs-athletic-club-2026-10-10/", "scoreline": null, "condition": "cancelled" }, "market_label": "Asian handicap 0.25", "outcome_label": "Rayo Vallecano +0.25", "odds_set": { "by_author": "1.65", "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": "void", "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-09T01:09:06.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-10-09T01:09:06.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-09T14:07:15.190Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Asian handicap 0.25", "choice": "Rayo Vallecano +0.25", "author_odds": "1.65", "market_key": "handicap_asian", "choice_key": "1", "period": "match", "line": "0.25", "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Asian handicap 0.25: Rayo Vallecano +0.25 at 1.65" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "void", "scoreline": null, "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Void." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "994dda4390764f20e8fa30de1e7ee9229593b5790e848ae9ad2e858dd83656d0", "series_key": "author_price", "series_label": "At the author's stated price", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Asian handicap 0.25", "choice": "Rayo Vallecano +0.25", "decimal_odds": "1.65", "odds_role": "author_price", "stake_hundredths": null, "status": "cancelled", "status_text": "Cancelled: ", "result": null, "result_words": null, "change_hundredths": null, "executed_at": "2026-10-09T14:09:38.640Z", "methodology_version": "2.1", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false }, { "operation_id": "0139100d2a39985e9d8539d0c962d0dac16db05c5efee1a154c81a4cf331b3f1", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Asian handicap 0.25", "choice": "Rayo Vallecano +0.25", "decimal_odds": "1.6700", "odds_role": "market_price", "stake_hundredths": null, "status": "cancelled", "status_text": "Cancelled: ", "result": null, "result_words": null, "change_hundredths": null, "executed_at": "2026-10-10T03:51:09.765Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": { "material_author": "LMGuerra", "publisher": "betbrothers.es", "forecaster": "LMGuerra", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://betbrothers.es/pronosticos-deportivos/rayo-vallecano-athletic-club-la-liga-2026/", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null } ], "standing": null, "retro": null, "late": null, "price_vs_market": { "contract_version": "1", "threshold_percent": "5", "rows": [ { "basis": "snapshot", "basis_words": "our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off)", "basis_short": "Our market price when we first recorded the pick", "compared": 12, "above": 3, "above_share_percent": "25.0", "below": 0, "within": 9, "median_difference_percent": "0.0", "not_comparable": 0, "disputed": 0, "status": "calculated" } ], "examples": [ { "url": "/authors/lmguerra/picks/2/#pick-n-9c04c837534b0db5e9c03de3", "basis": "snapshot", "stated": "4.00", "market": "3.75", "difference_percent": "6.7" }, { "url": "/authors/lmguerra/picks/3/#pick-n-70517992861efd2ddc6224e5", "basis": "snapshot", "stated": "2.13", "market": "2.02", "difference_percent": "5.4" } ], "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way." }, "record_summary": { "contract_version": "1", "entity_type": "person", "entity_words": "Individual author", "source": { "name": "betbrothers.es", "url": "https://betbrothers.es/pronosticos-deportivos/elche-real-betis-la-liga-2026/" }, "observed_from": "2026-10-09", "observed_to": "2026-11-07", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "state": "settled", "series_code": "market_price", "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price", "restored": false, "headline_kind": "live_snapshot", "headline_part": "live", "settled_picks": 10, "matches": 6, "void": 2, "net_points_hundredths": -24309, "staked_hundredths": 80000, "return_percent": "-30.39", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "period_from": "2026-10-10", "period_to": "2026-10-30", "status": "calculated", "method_version": "2.2", "short_history": true, "reason": null, "reasons": [], "sentence": "Forecast Record recorded 10 settled live picks by LMGuerra before kick-off across 6 matches between 10 and 30 October 2026. Won 2 of 8 non-void picks at our recorded market prices. Of the 24 predictions we hold for LMGuerra, 17 are linked to matches: 17 were recorded by us before kick-off. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "numbers": [ { "label": "Settled live picks", "value": "10", "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick", "note": "2 void" }, { "label": "Matches", "value": "6", "anchor": "/methodology/#match", "note": null }, { "label": "Net result", "value": "−243.09 points", "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement", "note": "100 points per pick" }, { "label": "Return at our recorded market price", "value": "−30.4%", "anchor": "/methodology/#roi", "note": null } ], "limitations": [], "other_series": [], "return_over_time": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 0, "n": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-11", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000, "n": 2 }, { "date": "2026-10-13", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 20691, "n": 4 }, { "date": "2026-10-19", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 10691, "n": 6 }, { "date": "2026-10-20", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -4309, "n": 8 }, { "date": "2026-10-30", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -24309, "n": 10 } ], "return_over_time_parts": { "live": { "part": "live", "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "x_axis": "match_date", "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.", "settled_picks": 10, "matches": 6, "match_dates": 6, "period_from": "2026-10-10", "period_to": "2026-10-30", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "final_points_hundredths": -24309, "low": { "date": "2026-10-30", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -24309, "after_picks": 10 }, "high": { "date": "2026-10-13", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 20691, "after_picks": 4 }, "line_drawn": true, "steps": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 0, "n": 1, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-11", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000, "n": 2, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-13", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 20691, "n": 4, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2026-10-19", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 10691, "n": 6, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2026-10-20", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -4309, "n": 8, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2026-10-30", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -24309, "n": 10, "picks": 2 } ] }, "archived": null }, "author_response": null, "cite": { "text": "Forecast Record recorded 10 settled live picks by LMGuerra before kick-off across 6 matches between 10 and 30 October 2026. Won 2 of 8 non-void picks at our recorded market prices. Of the 24 predictions we hold for LMGuerra, 17 are linked to matches: 17 were recorded by us before kick-off. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/lmguerra/", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "2.2" }, "origin": { "contract_version": "1", "predictions": 24, "under_review": 0, "no_match_linked": 7, "proven_predictions": 17, "proven_checked": 15, "proven_measured": 10, "proven_dates": 7, "parts": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.", "predictions": 17, "checked": 15, "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "series_code": "market_price", "main": { "settled_picks": 10, "void": 2, "matches": 6, "net_points_hundredths": -24309, "staked_hundredths": 80000, "return_percent": "-30.39", "interval_low": null, "interval_high": null, "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval", "period_from": "2026-10-10", "period_to": "2026-10-30", "method_version": "2.2", "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0", "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.0", "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 3 }, "same_picks": [ { "price": "Author-quoted price", "series_code": "author_price", "picks": 10, "return_main_percent": "-30.39", "return_other_percent": "-27.38", "settled_excluding_void": 8, "net_main_points_hundredths": -24309, "net_other_points_hundredths": -21900, "period_from": "2026-10-10", "period_to": "2026-10-30" }, { "price": "Closing price", "series_code": "closing_live", "picks": 4, "return_main_percent": "153.46", "return_other_percent": "80.00", "settled_excluding_void": 2, "net_main_points_hundredths": 30691, "net_other_points_hundredths": 16000, "period_from": "2026-10-10", "period_to": "2026-10-19" } ], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 15, "priced": 10 }, "accuracy": { "picks": 7, "won": 2, "won_percent": "28.6", "implied_percent": "34.0", "left_out": 3, "by_market": [ { "market": "Asian handicap", "won": 1, "picks": 3, "implied_percent": "39.0" }, { "market": "Result and both teams to score", "won": 0, "picks": 3, "implied_percent": "23.0" }, { "market": "Match result", "won": 1, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "52.4" } ] }, "reviewed_after": { "predictions": 1, "right": 0, "wrong": 0, "other": 1 } }, { "code": "archived", "title": "Archived before kick-off", "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.", "predictions": 0, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null }, { "code": "found_after", "title": "Found after the match", "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.", "predictions": 0, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null } ] }, "live_alongside": null, "headline_record_ids": [ "n-1f352b28744c769f088e9a27", "n-20b961a99106e2566496a9b5", "n-2279fa6c13b12482e936b648", "n-491778520e038b37b235c2f2", "n-5459f32fa77bd87211eb9af4", "n-8a3e82f5d20e40c72a78dfe4", "n-99af4396448f12b88382da3a", "n-9c04c837534b0db5e9c03de3", "n-e6abe60b6a673648edff9005", "n-f547eb8df33c3e6f8316e640" ], "interval_low": null, "interval_high": null, "caption": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price · 100 points per pick · 10–30 October 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under method v2.2", "record_from": "2026-10-09", "record_to": "2026-11-07" }, "recorded_picks": [ { "record_id": "n-2279fa6c13b12482e936b648", "url": "/authors/lmguerra/picks/3/#pick-n-2279fa6c13b12482e936b648", "match": "Villarreal v Espanyol", "match_url": "/football/matches/villarreal-vs-espanyol-2026-10-30/", "kickoff": "2026-10-30T20:00:00.000Z", "competition": "LaLiga", "lead_hours": 39.5, "market_code": "handicap_asian", "author_said": "Asian handicap -2: Villarreal -2.0 at 3", "quote": null, "group": "settled", "outcome": "Lost", "claim_outcome": "Lost", "final_score": "0-1", "reason": null, "reason_code": null, "points_hundredths": -10000, "series_code": "market_price", "series_short": "odds snapshot", "author_price": "3", "settled_price": "3.0500", "published_at": "2026-10-29T04:26:37.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T04:32:01.925Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": true, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-2279fa6c13b12482e936b648", "quote_text": "Si queremos arriesgar más, podemos jugar un hándicap asiático -2 a favor del Villarreal. Con esta apuesta, si el Villarreal gana por dos goles nos devuelven el dinero, pero si gana por tres o más, ganamos la apuesta, que se paga a una cuota de 3.00.", "fragment_from": 4518, "fragment_to": 4767, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://betbrothers.es/pronosticos-deportivos/villarreal-espanyol-laliga-2026/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "LMGuerra", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "2e62c6141ecf5596fd2ad33399d6522967d7bf27f0122cc12fda63641e4c2127", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-29T04:26:37.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-29T04:32:01.925Z", "executed_at": "2026-10-30T14:07:43.314Z", "statement_class": "priced", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": "s-6b2e43166ed3", "display_name": "Villarreal — Espanyol", "competition_name": "LaLiga", "starts_at": "2026-10-30T20:00:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/villarreal-vs-espanyol-2026-10-30/", "scoreline": "0-1", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "Asian handicap -2", "outcome_label": "Villarreal -2.0", "odds_set": { "by_author": "3", "our_snapshot": "3.0500", "our_snapshot_at": "2026-10-29T04:31:03.244Z", "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot", "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "loss", "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": "ours", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-29T04:26:37.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-10-29T04:26:37.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-29T04:32:01.925Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, 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no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-edbb7c9ced9b70322e561510", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "La cuota por la victoria local se encuentra sobre 1.48, y me parece una gran opción para combinar.", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "ambiguous", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-16T14:11:37.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-16T14:22:01.329Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-b5319c7dd681c3198b0d5825", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "me gusta la victoria del Betis con menos de 2.5 goles, que paga a 5.50 por euro apostado.", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-13T00:06:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-13T05:42:02.915Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null } ], "lead_time": { "contract_version": 1, "threshold_hours": 2.0, "picks": 17, "before_kickoff": 17, "after_kickoff": 0, "at_least_2h": 17, "share_2h_plus": 100.0, "median_hours": 36.8, "min_hours": 17.8, "max_hours": 66.6, "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off." }, "baseline": { "contract_version": 1, "series_code": "market_price", "rule": "recorded-line-1.0", "state": "settled", "picks": 4, "settled_picks_all": 10, "excluded": { "market_without_favourite": 4, "no_recorded_line": 2, "favourite_not_settled": 0 }, "staked_hundredths": 30000, "author_net_hundredths": 25691, "favourite_net_hundredths": 25691, "difference_hundredths": 0, "author_return_percent": 85.64, "favourite_return_percent": 85.64, "author_hit_rate": 50.0, "favourite_hit_rate": 50.0, "picked_favourite_share": 75.0, "by_market": [ { "market_code": "1x2", "picks": 2, "staked_hundredths": 10000, "author_net_hundredths": 9091, "favourite_net_hundredths": 9091, "author_hits": 1, "favourite_hits": 1, "picked_favourite": 1, "author_return_percent": 90.91, "favourite_return_percent": 90.91 }, { "market_code": "handicap_asian", "picks": 2, "staked_hundredths": 20000, "author_net_hundredths": 16600, "favourite_net_hundredths": 16600, "author_hits": 1, "favourite_hits": 1, "picked_favourite": 2, "author_return_percent": 83.0, "favourite_return_percent": 83.0 } ], "return_over_time": [ { "kickoff": "2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 0, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 0 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 21600, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 21600 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 30691, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 30691 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-20T19:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 25691, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 25691 } ], "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out." }, "pagination": { "per_page": 20, "total": 24, "pages": 3, "page_urls": [ "/authors/lmguerra/", "/authors/lmguerra/picks/2/", "/authors/lmguerra/picks/3/" ], "groups": { "settled": 10, "pending": 2, "excluded": 12 }, "continuation": "by_time", "page": 1, "first": 1, "last": 20, "author_url": "/authors/lmguerra/", "current": true }, "title_tag": "LMGuerra Predictions: This Week's Picks & Verified Record", "calculator": null, "person": { "person_id": "o-a8bdbd8a6421995af7d41813", "type_code": "individual", "name_shown": "LMGuerra", "main_entity": "e-a8bdbd8a6421995af7d41813", "identity": { "status": "not_verified", "is_verified": false, "when": null, "source_list": [] }, "platform_list": [ { "entity_ref": "e-a8bdbd8a6421995af7d41813", "medium": "betbrothers.es", "channel": "section pages", "domain": "betbrothers.es", "source_info": null, "byline": "LMGuerra", "url": null, "summary": { "statements": 46, "predictions": 24, "settled_picks": 10, "headline_kind": "live_snapshot", "return_percent": -30.39, "headline_part": "live", "period_from": "2026-10-09", "period_to": "2026-11-07" } } ], "previously": [], "trust_tier": "probation" }, "data_revision": { "data_version": "2026-10-31.1", "updated": "2026-10-31", "current_release": "2026-11-07.2", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "2.2", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "series_code": "market_price", "sample": { "settled_picks": 10, "matches": 6, "void": 2, "period_from": "2026-10-10", "period_to": "2026-10-30", "composition_hash": "07750e2c1c4f6136ddadaaf808981fc02186b2aa7fcab778827beda1b0158adc" }, "changes_url": "#changes", "corrections_url": "/corrections/" }, "number_changes": [ { "id": "zc-b4edeaf5ad32afc14fcf", "at": "2026-10-31T04:09:05.944Z", "data_version": "2026-10-31.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-30.3", "url": "/authors/lmguerra/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-24.1", "return_percent": "-7.18", "settled_picks": 8, "matches": 5, "void": 2, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "7afd27167b3f79ee133b4a6b2029e1d902419a0073c513657bdb168f49f4b4ac", "text": "−43.09 points on 8 settled picks across 5 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-31.1", "return_percent": "-30.39", "settled_picks": 10, "matches": 6, "void": 2, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "07750e2c1c4f6136ddadaaf808981fc02186b2aa7fcab778827beda1b0158adc", "text": "−243.09 points on 10 settled picks across 6 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "2 new settled picks from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 2, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-45219df6b58885052bcb", "at": "2026-10-24T01:51:11.728Z", "data_version": "2026-10-24.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-23.4", "url": "/authors/lmguerra/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-20.8", "return_percent": "-19.70", "settled_picks": 5, "matches": 5, "void": 2, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "95ea10219a240f04f6d96a6a1d0e7b1f68cfe8f202c1572c19205d79eaee234b", "text": "−59.09 points on 5 settled picks across 5 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-24.1", "return_percent": "-7.18", "settled_picks": 8, "matches": 5, "void": 2, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "7afd27167b3f79ee133b4a6b2029e1d902419a0073c513657bdb168f49f4b4ac", "text": "−43.09 points on 8 settled picks across 5 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 3 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 3, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-929421e61cf1c86f84f5", "at": "2026-10-20T21:29:02.148Z", "data_version": "2026-10-20.8", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-20.7", "url": "/authors/lmguerra/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-19.7", "return_percent": "-4.54", "settled_picks": 4, "matches": 4, "void": 2, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "d7ae6a25b3f0c15afce60315f0bb271ba74e249d7c2f278f3ed51cfb4d45747a", "text": "−9.09 points on 4 settled picks across 4 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-20.8", "return_percent": "-19.70", "settled_picks": 5, "matches": 5, "void": 2, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "95ea10219a240f04f6d96a6a1d0e7b1f68cfe8f202c1572c19205d79eaee234b", "text": "−59.09 points on 5 settled picks across 5 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-0d3cdab72b03f046b31b", "at": "2026-10-19T23:18:20.062Z", "data_version": "2026-10-19.7", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-19.6", "url": "/authors/lmguerra/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-19.6", "return_percent": "-4.54", "settled_picks": 3, "matches": 3, "void": 1, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "b91607f251992dfa8091c9f868f81419e91b60c757e56f658f15566d24bb2ee0", "text": "−9.09 points on 3 settled picks across 3 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-19.7", "return_percent": "-4.54", "settled_picks": 4, "matches": 4, "void": 2, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "d7ae6a25b3f0c15afce60315f0bb271ba74e249d7c2f278f3ed51cfb4d45747a", "text": "−9.09 points on 4 settled picks across 4 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-df64e2b3d062b6967745", "at": "2026-10-19T19:39:27.559Z", "data_version": "2026-10-19.6", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-19.5", "url": "/authors/lmguerra/", "category": "data_corrected", "category_words": "Data corrected", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-13.6", "return_percent": "-4.54", "settled_picks": 4, "matches": 3, "void": 2, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "c8b9cad74eca1231ff1dbe7c900dd8254718e8fb983de602d5197a56a758a8b3", "text": "−9.09 points on 4 settled picks across 3 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-19.6", "return_percent": "-4.54", "settled_picks": 3, "matches": 3, "void": 1, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "b91607f251992dfa8091c9f868f81419e91b60c757e56f658f15566d24bb2ee0", "text": "−9.09 points on 3 settled picks across 3 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Data corrected: 1 pick left the headline sample.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 0, "removed": 1, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": "i-3c1b5da2e92be8392941" }, { "id": "zc-91c17d32a33a49724284", "at": "2026-10-13T21:34:28.953Z", "data_version": "2026-10-13.6", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-13.5", "url": "/authors/lmguerra/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-11.8", "return_percent": "-100.00", "settled_picks": 3, "matches": 2, "void": 2, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "d596731cc5e34ed405842478fb0e663d489d862f7a2001bf8b2629f4ccdc3457", "text": "−100.00 points on 3 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-13.6", "return_percent": "-4.54", "settled_picks": 4, "matches": 3, "void": 2, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "c8b9cad74eca1231ff1dbe7c900dd8254718e8fb983de602d5197a56a758a8b3", "text": "−9.09 points on 4 settled picks across 3 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-9c9bbf94c6e9b9f8693e", "at": "2026-10-11T21:54:36.315Z", "data_version": "2026-10-11.8", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-11.7", "url": "/authors/lmguerra/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-10.4", "return_percent": null, "settled_picks": 2, "matches": 1, "void": 2, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "466de5364789983aba4148d65f5481048dcbf96d3cad0201c29df9f20ed37948", "text": "no return on 2 settled picks across 1 match · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-11.8", "return_percent": "-100.00", "settled_picks": 3, "matches": 2, "void": 2, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "d596731cc5e34ed405842478fb0e663d489d862f7a2001bf8b2629f4ccdc3457", "text": "−100.00 points on 3 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-de8ed0a765f14f094d10", "at": "2026-10-10T23:53:02.873Z", "data_version": "2026-10-10.4", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-10.3", "url": "/authors/lmguerra/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": null, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-10.4", "return_percent": null, "settled_picks": 2, "matches": 1, "void": 2, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "466de5364789983aba4148d65f5481048dcbf96d3cad0201c29df9f20ed37948", "text": "no return on 2 settled picks across 1 match · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "First headline number for this record: 2 settled picks in the series “independent odds snapshot”.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 2, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null } ], "current_predictions": { "total_count": 2, "on_date": "2026-11-07T19:52", "row_list": [ { "record_id": "n-780c8829ce42091c970e97ca", "url": "/authors/lmguerra/picks/3/#pick-n-780c8829ce42091c970e97ca", "match": "Elche v Real Betis", "match_url": "/football/matches/elche-vs-real-betis-2026-11-08/", "kickoff": "2026-11-08T13:00:00.000Z", "competition": "LaLiga", "author_said": "Match result and both teams to score: Real Betis win, both teams to score: no at 4", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "recorded_at": "2026-11-07T00:12:11.234Z", "platform": null }, { "record_id": "n-70517992861efd2ddc6224e5", "url": "/authors/lmguerra/picks/3/#pick-n-70517992861efd2ddc6224e5", "match": "Elche v Real Betis", "match_url": "/football/matches/elche-vs-real-betis-2026-11-08/", "kickoff": "2026-11-08T13:00:00.000Z", "competition": "LaLiga", "author_said": "1X2, match result: Real Betis at 2.13", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "recorded_at": "2026-11-07T00:12:11.234Z", "platform": null } ] }, "counts_by_slice": { "portions": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "settled_picks": 10, "total_check": true, "market_list": [ { "code_name": "handicap_asian", "in_words": "Asian handicap", "url": null, "settled_picks": 4, "won": 1, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -3400, "return_percent": "-8.5", "period_from": "2026-10-13", "period_to": "2026-10-30", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "2.51", "odds_from_author": 4, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 }, { "code_name": "both_teams_score_and_result", "in_words": "Result and both teams to score", "url": null, "settled_picks": 3, "won": 0, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -30000, "return_percent": "-100.0", "period_from": "2026-10-11", "period_to": "2026-10-20", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "4.50", "odds_from_author": 3, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 }, { "code_name": "1x2", "in_words": "Match result", "url": null, "settled_picks": 2, "won": 1, "void": 1, "net_points_hundredths": 9091, "return_percent": "90.9", "period_from": "2026-10-10", "period_to": "2026-10-13", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "2.30", "odds_from_author": 2, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 }, { "code_name": "draw_no_bet", "in_words": "Draw no bet", "url": null, "settled_picks": 1, "won": 0, "void": 1, "net_points_hundredths": 0, "return_percent": null, "period_from": "2026-10-19", "period_to": "2026-10-19", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "1.85", "odds_from_author": 1, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 } ], "leagues": [ { "code_name": "LaLiga", "in_words": "LaLiga", "url": "/football/competitions/laliga/", "settled_picks": 6, "won": 0, "void": 2, "net_points_hundredths": -40000, "return_percent": "-100.0", "period_from": "2026-10-10", "period_to": "2026-10-30", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "3.06", "odds_from_author": 6, "odds_from_snapshot": 0, "league_markets": [ { "code_name": "handicap_asian", "in_words": "Asian handicap", "settled_picks": 2, "won": 0, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -20000, "return_percent": null, "period_from": "2026-10-30", "period_to": "2026-10-30", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "2.45", "odds_from_author": 2, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 }, { "code_name": "both_teams_score_and_result", "in_words": "Result and both teams to score", "settled_picks": 2, "won": 0, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -20000, "return_percent": null, "period_from": "2026-10-11", "period_to": "2026-10-19", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "4.50", "odds_from_author": 2, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 }, { "code_name": "draw_no_bet", "in_words": "Draw no bet", "settled_picks": 1, "won": 0, "void": 1, "net_points_hundredths": 0, "return_percent": null, "period_from": "2026-10-19", "period_to": "2026-10-19", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "1.85", "odds_from_author": 1, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 }, { "code_name": "1x2", "in_words": "Match result", "settled_picks": 1, "won": 0, "void": 1, "net_points_hundredths": 0, "return_percent": 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