{ "schema_name": "page", "schema_version": "2.0", "page_type": "author", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/", "canonical": "/authors/lewis-nolan/", "language": "en", "hreflang": [], "translations": [], "heading": "Lewis Nolan: Football Prediction Record", "description": "Verified record: 47 settled picks by Lewis Nolan recorded before kick-off across 23 matches, 9 Oct 2026 – 7 Nov 2026: −55.1% at our recorded market prices.", "first_paragraph": { "body": "Forecast Record recorded 47 settled live picks by Lewis Nolan before kick-off across 23 matches between 9 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −55.1% on the total staked. Of the 242 predictions we hold for Lewis Nolan, 129 are linked to matches: 129 were recorded by us before kick-off. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "key_number": "−55.1%", "data": "2026-11-07", "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot", "brand": "Forecast Record" }, "indexable": false, "noindex_reason": "outside_core", "indexing_threshold": { "settled_count": 101, "date_count": 28, "required_settled": 10, "required_dates": 2 }, "data_date": "2026-11-07T18:16:41.406Z", "built_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "lastmod": "2026-11-08T02:12:33.000Z", "content_hash": null, "meaning_hash": "80f39f9a18e6d29ec97d6adef0e46b5fde4fe2ad0fdd15edad5289fdce7f8b47", "dependency_group": "author:e-e86fb7fb7bf20893f36d79f4", "release_id": "20261107-195223", "markup": [ { "type_code": "WebPage", "allowed": true, "cause": null }, { "type_code": "Organization", "allowed": true, "cause": null }, { "type_code": "Person", "allowed": true, "cause": null } ], "exports": [ { "type_code": "json", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/index.json", "bytes": null }, { "type_code": "csv", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/picks.csv", "bytes": null } ], "modules": { "affiliate": true, "api": true, "compare_yourself": false }, "affiliate_block": { "container": true, "request_url": "/partnery/moi", "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.", "page_category": "author" }, "restrictions": { "name_withdrawn": false, "tracker_number": null, "withdrawn_quotes": [], "removed_at": null, "cause": null, "suspended_records": [], "withdrawal_log_number": 0 }, "page_links": { "methodology": "/methodology/", "right_of_reply": "/right-of-reply/", "source_coverage": "/coverage/", "corrections_log": "/corrections/", "api": "/api/", "claim": "/claim/" }, "entity": { "id": "e-e86fb7fb7bf20893f36d79f4", "public_name": "Lewis Nolan", "tracker_number": 1042, "status": "active", "inactive_since": null, "verified_creator": false, "observation_period": { "since": "2026-09-25", "until": "2026-11-07" }, "platform_list": [ { "medium": "website", "handle": null, "url": null, "link_confirmed": false, "show": true } ], "comment": null }, "headline_number": { "metric": { "metric_id": "p-e-e86fb7fb7bf20893f36d79f4-roi-market-price-90d-z99", 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"outcome_id": "ish-00ecf214c6b84024e112432f" } ], "top_ups": [], "rule": "When the balance falls below 100 points and no bets are open, 10000 points are added; the remaining balance is kept. While bets are open we wait for settlement.", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot" }, "simulations": [], "completeness": { "detected": 994, "recognised": 242, "accepted": 73, "executed": 60, "calculated": 57, "gaps": [ { "cause": "National-team matches", "figure": 68 }, { "cause": "outside the method", "figure": 40 }, { "cause": "other reading", "figure": 40 }, { "cause": "not_supported", "figure": 21 }, { "cause": "not_checked", "figure": 12 }, { "cause": "disputed_reading", "figure": 1 } ] }, "record_counts": { "dictionary_version": "1", "statements": 994, "of_them_restored": 18, "not_predictions": { "opinions": 206, "not_about_a_match": 537, "unclassified": 0 }, "predictions": 242, "predictions_restored": 0, "matches": 61, "admitted": 73, "qualifying_picks": 60, "qualifying_picks_restored": 0, "settled_picks": 57, "settled_picks_restored": 0, "series_list": [ { "code_name": "market_price", "derived": false, "is_restored": false, "qualifying_picks": 50, "settled_picks": 47, "void": 0, "pending_picks": 3, "matches": 23, "operations_settled": 47, "stakes_hundredths": [ 10000 ], "methodologies": [ "2.2" ], "display_name": "At an independent odds snapshot" }, { "code_name": "author_price", "derived": false, "is_restored": false, "qualifying_picks": 60, "settled_picks": 57, "void": 0, "pending_picks": 3, "matches": 26, "operations_settled": 57, "stakes_hundredths": [ 10000 ], "methodologies": [ "2.1", "2.2" ], "display_name": "At the author's stated price" }, { "code_name": "derived_series", "derived": true, "is_restored": false, "qualifying_picks": 43, "settled_picks": 41, "void": 0, "pending_picks": 2, "matches": 41, "operations_settled": 47, "stakes_hundredths": [ 10000 ], "methodologies": [ "2.2" ], "display_name": "Forecast Record reconstruction from the predicted score" } ], "gaps": [ { "code_name": "outside_coverage", "cause": "National-team matches", "figure": 68 }, { "code_name": "not_admitted", "cause": "outside the method", "figure": 40 }, { "code_name": "ambiguous", "cause": "other reading", "figure": 40 }, { "code_name": "not_supported", "cause": "not_supported", "figure": 21 }, { "code_name": "not_checked", "cause": "not_checked", "figure": 12 }, { "code_name": "disputed_reading", "cause": "disputed_reading", "figure": 1 } ], "duplicates": 7, "junk": { "ads": 2, "service": 7 }, "dictionary_url": "/methodology/#words" }, "evidence_items": [ { "observation_id": "n-0bcfd62aa9e19af1795ac39d", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-0bcfd62aa9e19af1795ac39d", "quote_text": "A victory for Iraola could be key for boosting confidence in the fanbase", "fragment_from": 672, "fragment_to": 744, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "rss", "url": "https://footballwhispers.com/blog/crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-why-to-back-cody-gakpo-to-assist-at-10-3-in-premier-league-clash/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Lewis Nolan", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "935877340f212a50afeb3fedc4d33e2789b60d458370f068b0633c11a6e0ec1f", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-11-06T22:20:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-07T01:34:35.122Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "opinion", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-11-06T22:20:00.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-11-06T22:20:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-07T01:34:35.122Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; 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"data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-bddb3fcbb7399c7307f825a3", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/picks/11/#pick-n-bddb3fcbb7399c7307f825a3", "quote_text": "so it may make sense to predict Under 0.5 Goals for Hamburger SV at 2/1 (3)", "fragment_from": 3846, "fragment_to": 3921, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "rss", "url": "https://footballwhispers.com/blog/eintracht-frankfurt-vs-hamburger-sv-prediction-preview-01-11-2026/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Lewis Nolan", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "f4333b87612b63bd9933f690013139881281c21ca99e29c99ba57e440e360618", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": 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"n-54f218df49ae9e6f71c01d10", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/picks/11/#pick-n-54f218df49ae9e6f71c01d10", "quote_text": "meaning there may be value in backing Younes Ebnoutalib to Score at 21/20 (2.05)", "fragment_from": 3635, "fragment_to": 3715, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "rss", "url": "https://footballwhispers.com/blog/eintracht-frankfurt-vs-hamburger-sv-prediction-preview-01-11-2026/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Lewis Nolan", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "f4333b87612b63bd9933f690013139881281c21ca99e29c99ba57e440e360618", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-30T17:55:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-30T19:04:17.762Z", "executed_at": "2026-11-01T16:07:50.621Z", "statement_class": "priced", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": "s-06d250442f56", "display_name": "Eintracht Frankfurt — Hamburger SV", "competition_name": "Bundesliga", "starts_at": 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"https://footballwhispers.com/blog/eintracht-frankfurt-vs-hamburger-sv-prediction-preview-01-11-2026/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Lewis Nolan", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "f4333b87612b63bd9933f690013139881281c21ca99e29c99ba57e440e360618", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-30T17:55:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-30T19:04:17.762Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "score_forecast", "status": "ambiguous", "cause": "", "cause_code": "ambiguous", "event": { "event_id": "s-06d250442f56", "display_name": "Eintracht Frankfurt — Hamburger SV", "competition_name": "Bundesliga", "starts_at": "2026-11-01T16:30:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/eintracht-frankfurt-vs-hamburger-sv-2026-11-01/", "scoreline": "3-1", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "Correct score", "outcome_label": "Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0 Hamburger SV", "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": "loss", "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-30T17:55:00.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-10-30T17:55:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-30T19:04:17.762Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Correct score", "choice": "Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0 Hamburger SV", "author_odds": null, "market_key": "correct_score_market", "choice_key": "2-0", "period": "match", "line": null, "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Correct score: Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0 Hamburger SV" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "loss", "scoreline": "3-1", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Did not match: the final score was Eintracht Frankfurt 3-1 Hamburger SV." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "19b5ca872bc8d89c3c27306f6be66a34f34d426669315f8e65d62256c9a2ef6c", "series_key": "derived_series", "series_label": "Forecast Record reconstruction from the predicted score", "derived": true, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": false, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "choice": "Eintracht Frankfurt", "decimal_odds": null, "odds_role": null, "stake_hundredths": null, "status": "skipped", "status_text": "Not executed: ", "result": null, "result_words": null, "change_hundredths": null, "executed_at": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": false, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": { "material_author": "Lewis Nolan", "publisher": "Football Whispers", "forecaster": "Lewis Nolan", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://footballwhispers.com/blog/eintracht-frankfurt-vs-hamburger-sv-prediction-preview-01-11-2026/", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-ec4925766c6fd45d74964acb", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/picks/11/#pick-n-ec4925766c6fd45d74964acb", "quote_text": "there could be merit in betting Over 1.5 Goals for Eintracht Frankfurt at 4/9 (1.44)", "fragment_from": 3449, "fragment_to": 3533, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "rss", "url": 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"replaced": false }, { "operation_id": "8d8c0772b35e7bf6e0e4936bca9ef942fff5993ca3890c537d8a3834bb28f975", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Team goals over/under 1.5", "choice": "Eintracht Frankfurt over 1.5", "decimal_odds": "1.4100", "odds_role": "market_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "win", "result_words": "Won", "change_hundredths": 4100, "executed_at": "2026-11-01T16:08:02.559Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "settled_pick", "authorship": { "material_author": "Lewis Nolan", "publisher": "Football Whispers", "forecaster": "Lewis Nolan", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate 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FSV Mainz 05", "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong", "evidence_price": null, "comparison": "13 other tipsters and sources on this match, 0 right (13 named away win)", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/picks/10/#pick-n-ea6ea0c87d9be9ed97dfa634" }, { "nid": "n-71651ccfbd85e4cd089ea67e", "data": "2026-10-27", "match": "Borussia Dortmund v SV Werder Bremen", "said_text": "Correct score: Borussia Dortmund 2-1 SV Werder Bremen", "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right", "evidence_price": null, "comparison": "13 other tipsters and sources on this match, 11 right (11 named home win, 2 named draw)", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/picks/11/#pick-n-71651ccfbd85e4cd089ea67e" }, { "nid": "n-8e6dac8902ee4a4f6e3da7e7", "data": "2026-10-27", "match": "Borussia M'gladbach v Karlsruher SC", "said_text": "Correct score: Borussia M'gladbach 3-1 Karlsruher SC", "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right", "evidence_price": null, "comparison": "7 other tipsters and sources on this match, 7 right (7 named home win)", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/picks/10/#pick-n-8e6dac8902ee4a4f6e3da7e7" }, { "nid": "n-8aa2d73b898fd03fa021085b", "data": "2026-10-28", "match": "SC Freiburg v VfL Wolfsburg", "said_text": "Correct score: SC Freiburg 3-1 VfL Wolfsburg", "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right", "evidence_price": null, "comparison": "6 other tipsters and sources on this match, 6 right (6 named home win)", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/picks/11/#pick-n-8aa2d73b898fd03fa021085b" }, { "nid": "n-3359f3f362013d52ceb70e1b", "data": "2026-10-28", "match": "FC Bayern München v Magdeburg", "said_text": "Correct score: FC Bayern München 6-1 Magdeburg", "outcome_label": "score right · result right", "evidence_price": null, "comparison": "6 other tipsters and sources on this match, 6 right (6 named home win)", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/picks/11/#pick-n-3359f3f362013d52ceb70e1b" } ], "evidence_total": 5, "badge": { "variants": [ { "size": "l", "theme": "light", "width": 1708, "height": 40, "url": "/b/e-e86fb7fb7bf20893f36d79f4/p-09-all-event-l-light.svg" }, { "size": "l", "theme": "dark", "width": 1708, "height": 40, "url": "/b/e-e86fb7fb7bf20893f36d79f4/p-09-all-event-l-dark.svg" }, { "size": "m", "theme": "light", "width": 1257, "height": 28, "url": "/b/e-e86fb7fb7bf20893f36d79f4/p-09-all-event-m-light.svg" }, { "size": "m", "theme": "dark", "width": 1257, "height": 28, "url": "/b/e-e86fb7fb7bf20893f36d79f4/p-09-all-event-m-dark.svg" }, { "size": "s", "theme": "light", "width": 984, "height": 20, "url": "/b/e-e86fb7fb7bf20893f36d79f4/p-09-all-event-s-light.svg" }, { "size": "s", "theme": "dark", "width": 984, "height": 20, "url": "/b/e-e86fb7fb7bf20893f36d79f4/p-09-all-event-s-dark.svg" } ], "card_url": "/b/e-e86fb7fb7bf20893f36d79f4/p-09-all-event-card.svg" }, "profile_anchor": "title-5cd48dba7554", "chance": null, "embed_anchor": "title-competition-week-leader" }, { "code_name": "CS-10", "display_name": "Exact score 6–1 · FC Bayern München v Magdeburg · 28 Oct 2026", "received_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "window_kind": "event", "cause": null, "type_code": null, "bucket_code": "all", "bucket": "Exact score called", "measure": null, "place": null, "out_of": null, "n_bets": 1, "n_events": null, "amount": null, "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "ci_level": null, "fact": "Exact score 6–1 · FC Bayern München v Magdeburg · 28 Oct 2026", "rationale": "Correct score 6–1 called before the match; 4 other tipsters and sources named an exact score on this match, 0 right. Data: live record. Term: a dated fact.", "provenance": "live", "rules_version": "catalog-1", "methodology_version": "catalog-1", "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "valid_until": null, "anchor_id": "standing-cs-10-all-event", "alt": "Lewis Nolan · Exact score 6–1 · FC Bayern München v Magdeburg · 28 Oct 2026 · Tracked by Forecast Record", "csv_url": null, "embed": "\"Lewis", "neighbours": [], "window_words": "On show until 26 Jan 2027", "measure_words": null, "amount_words": null, "interval_words": null, "title_tier": "dated_record", "status": "active", "status_reason": null, "event_at": "2026-10-28", "evidence_through": "2026-10-28", "earned_at": "2026-10-28", "published_at": "2026-10-29", "visible_until": "2027-01-26", "badge_label": "Exact score 6–1 · 28 Oct", "scope_words": null, "title_id": "zk-71db437391018696ecd4", "evidence_items": [ { "nid": "n-3359f3f362013d52ceb70e1b", "data": "2026-10-28", "match": "FC Bayern München v Magdeburg", "said_text": "Correct score: FC Bayern München 6-1 Magdeburg", "outcome_label": "score right · result right", "evidence_price": null, "comparison": "4 other tipsters and sources named an exact score on this match, 0 right", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/picks/11/#pick-n-3359f3f362013d52ceb70e1b" } ], "evidence_total": 1, "badge": { "variants": [ { "size": "l", "theme": "light", "width": 1168, "height": 40, "url": "/b/e-e86fb7fb7bf20893f36d79f4/cs-10-all-event-l-light.svg" }, { "size": "l", "theme": "dark", "width": 1168, "height": 40, "url": "/b/e-e86fb7fb7bf20893f36d79f4/cs-10-all-event-l-dark.svg" }, { "size": "m", "theme": "light", "width": 860, "height": 28, "url": "/b/e-e86fb7fb7bf20893f36d79f4/cs-10-all-event-m-light.svg" }, { "size": "m", "theme": "dark", "width": 860, "height": 28, "url": "/b/e-e86fb7fb7bf20893f36d79f4/cs-10-all-event-m-dark.svg" }, { "size": "s", "theme": "light", "width": 671, "height": 20, "url": "/b/e-e86fb7fb7bf20893f36d79f4/cs-10-all-event-s-light.svg" }, { "size": "s", "theme": "dark", "width": 671, "height": 20, "url": "/b/e-e86fb7fb7bf20893f36d79f4/cs-10-all-event-s-dark.svg" } ], "card_url": "/b/e-e86fb7fb7bf20893f36d79f4/cs-10-all-event-card.svg" }, "profile_anchor": "title-71db43739101", "chance": { "contract_version": 1, "kind": "single", "priced": 0, "unpriced": 1, "probability": null, "one_in": null, "words": "No recorded prices for these picks, so the chance cannot be measured." }, "embed_anchor": "title-exact-score-called" }, { "code_name": "CS-10", "display_name": "Exact score 1–1 · Hull City v Brentford · 25 Oct 2026", "received_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "window_kind": "event", "cause": null, "type_code": null, "bucket_code": "z-c4c855af9f", "bucket": "Exact score called", "measure": null, "place": null, "out_of": null, "n_bets": 1, "n_events": null, "amount": null, "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "ci_level": null, "fact": "Exact score 1–1 · Hull City v Brentford · 25 Oct 2026", "rationale": "Correct score 1–1 called before the match; 6 other tipsters and sources named an exact score on this match, 1 right. Data: live record. Term: a dated fact.", "provenance": "live", "rules_version": "catalog-1", "methodology_version": "catalog-1", "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "valid_until": null, "anchor_id": "standing-cs-10-z-c4c855af9f-event", "alt": "Lewis Nolan · Exact score 1–1 · Hull City v Brentford · 25 Oct 2026 · Tracked by Forecast Record", "csv_url": null, "embed": "\"Lewis", "neighbours": [], "window_words": "On show until 23 Jan 2027", "measure_words": null, "amount_words": null, "interval_words": null, "title_tier": "dated_record", "status": "active", "status_reason": null, "event_at": "2026-10-25", "evidence_through": "2026-10-25", "earned_at": "2026-10-25", "published_at": "2026-10-26", "visible_until": "2027-01-23", "badge_label": "Exact score 1–1 · 25 Oct", "scope_words": null, "title_id": "zk-c4c855af9f06127c6f12", "evidence_items": [ { "nid": "n-bcd528947e952ed6d17529fd", "data": "2026-10-25", "match": "Hull City v Brentford", "said_text": "Correct score: Hull City 1-1 Brentford", "outcome_label": "score right · result right", "evidence_price": null, "comparison": "6 other tipsters and sources named an exact score on this match, 1 right", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/picks/10/#pick-n-bcd528947e952ed6d17529fd" } ], "evidence_total": 1, "badge": { "variants": [ { "size": "l", "theme": "light", "width": 1080, "height": 40, "url": "/b/e-e86fb7fb7bf20893f36d79f4/cs-10-z-c4c855af9f-event-l-light.svg" }, { "size": "l", "theme": "dark", "width": 1080, "height": 40, "url": "/b/e-e86fb7fb7bf20893f36d79f4/cs-10-z-c4c855af9f-event-l-dark.svg" }, { "size": "m", "theme": "light", "width": 795, "height": 28, "url": "/b/e-e86fb7fb7bf20893f36d79f4/cs-10-z-c4c855af9f-event-m-light.svg" }, { "size": "m", "theme": "dark", "width": 795, "height": 28, "url": "/b/e-e86fb7fb7bf20893f36d79f4/cs-10-z-c4c855af9f-event-m-dark.svg" }, { "size": "s", "theme": "light", "width": 620, "height": 20, "url": "/b/e-e86fb7fb7bf20893f36d79f4/cs-10-z-c4c855af9f-event-s-light.svg" }, { "size": "s", "theme": "dark", "width": 620, "height": 20, "url": "/b/e-e86fb7fb7bf20893f36d79f4/cs-10-z-c4c855af9f-event-s-dark.svg" } ], "card_url": "/b/e-e86fb7fb7bf20893f36d79f4/cs-10-z-c4c855af9f-event-card.svg" }, "profile_anchor": "title-c4c855af9f06", "chance": { "contract_version": 1, "kind": "single", "priced": 0, "unpriced": 1, "probability": null, "one_in": null, "words": "No recorded prices for these picks, so the chance cannot be measured." }, "embed_anchor": "title-exact-score-called-exact-score-called" } ], "publication_mode": "top20", "empty_reason": null, "rules_version": "catalog-1", "insufficient": [], "badges_on_page": 0, "header_titles": [ { "title_id": "zk-5cd48dba7554fbd96403", "code_name": "P-09", "title_tier": "dated_record", "badge_label": "1st of 12 · week of 26 Oct", "body": "Germany DFB Pokal, week of 26 Oct 2026: 4/5 result calls right, first of 12 tipsters and sources with 3+ calls", "tier": null, "provenance": "live", "anchor_id": "title-5cd48dba7554", "event_at": "2026-11-01", "url": "/titles/p-09-competition-week-leader/#zk-5cd48dba7554fbd96403" }, { "title_id": "zk-71db437391018696ecd4", "code_name": "CS-10", "title_tier": "dated_record", "badge_label": "Exact score 6–1 · 28 Oct", "body": "Exact score 6–1 · FC Bayern München v Magdeburg · 28 Oct 2026", "tier": null, "provenance": "live", "anchor_id": "title-71db43739101", "event_at": "2026-10-28", "url": "/titles/cs-10-exact-score-called/" }, { "title_id": "zk-c4c855af9f06127c6f12", "code_name": "CS-10", "title_tier": "dated_record", "badge_label": "Exact score 1–1 · 25 Oct", "body": "Exact score 1–1 · Hull City v Brentford · 25 Oct 2026", "tier": null, "provenance": "live", "anchor_id": "title-c4c855af9f06", "event_at": "2026-10-25", "url": "/titles/cs-10-exact-score-called/" } ], "record_origin": [ { "portion": "live", "n": 99, "body": "99 recorded before kick-off · since 9 Oct 2026" } ], "recent_record": [ { "code_name": "P-09", "body": "Germany DFB Pokal, week of 26 Oct 2026: 4/5 result calls right, first of 12 tipsters and sources with 3+ calls", "event_at": "2026-11-01", "url": null, "provenance": "live", "anchor_id": "title-5cd48dba7554" }, { "code_name": "CS-10", "body": "Exact score 6–1 · FC Bayern München v Magdeburg · 28 Oct 2026", "event_at": "2026-10-28", "url": null, "provenance": "live", "anchor_id": "title-71db43739101" }, { "code_name": "CS-10", "body": "Exact score 1–1 · Hull City v Brentford · 25 Oct 2026", "event_at": "2026-10-25", "url": null, "provenance": "live", "anchor_id": "title-c4c855af9f06" } ], "record_details": [ { "code_name": "M-11", "body": "Most recorded: Correct score · 37 matches", "details_words": "Correct score 2/37 (37 matches); Team goals and win to nil 5/26 (19 matches); Goalscorer picks 2/14 (14 matches); Both teams to score 8/12 (12 matches); Match result (1X2) 0/6 (6 matches); Goals over/under 2/3 (3 matches); Handicaps 0/1 (1 match)", "url": null, "provenance": "live", "display_name": "Most recorded bet type", "rule_href": "/titles/m-11-most-recorded-bet-type/" }, { "code_name": "CS-01", "body": "Exact scores · 2/37", "details_words": null, "url": null, "provenance": "live", "display_name": "Exact scores", "rule_href": "/titles/cs-01-exact-scores/" }, { "code_name": "C-01", "body": "Minority calls · 0/2", "details_words": "Result calls on matches with at least 8 other tipsters and sources, where at least 60.0% of them named another outcome.", "url": null, "provenance": "live", "display_name": "Minority calls", "rule_href": "/titles/c-01-minority-calls/" }, { "code_name": "X-01", "body": "Longest price: correct at 4.00 · 25 Oct 2026", "details_words": "Hull City v Brentford · Draw at 4.00 (our pre-match price) · from the predicted score: Correct score: Hull City 1-1 Brentford", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/picks/10/#pick-n-bcd528947e952ed6d17529fd", "provenance": "live", "display_name": "Correct at a long price", "rule_href": "/titles/x-01-correct-at-a-long-price/" }, { "code_name": "E-03", "body": "Away calls · 5/14", "details_words": null, "url": null, "provenance": "live", "display_name": "Away calls", "rule_href": "/titles/e-03-away-calls/" }, { "code_name": "E-06", "body": "Non-favourite calls · 1/12", "details_words": null, "url": null, "provenance": "live", "display_name": "Non-favourite calls", "rule_href": "/titles/e-06-non-favourite-calls/" } ], "history": [] }, "retro": null, "late": null, "price_vs_market": { "contract_version": "1", "threshold_percent": "5", "rows": [ { "basis": "snapshot", "basis_words": "our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off)", "basis_short": "Our market price when we first recorded the pick", "compared": 50, "above": 2, "above_share_percent": "4.0", "below": 4, "within": 44, "median_difference_percent": "0.0", "not_comparable": 0, "disputed": 0, "status": "calculated" } ], "examples": [ { "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/picks/12/#pick-n-f5a8cce1b4d6c270b4dfa79a", "basis": "snapshot", "stated": "3.20", "market": "4.00", "difference_percent": "-20.0" }, { "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/picks/6/#pick-n-1b6695b577c35ff8d63814d8", "basis": "snapshot", "stated": "4.60", "market": "5.00", "difference_percent": "-8.0" } ], "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way." }, "record_summary": { "contract_version": "1", "entity_type": "person", "entity_words": "Individual author", "source": { "name": "footballwhispers.com", "url": "https://footballwhispers.com/blog/crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-prediction-preview-08-11-2026/" }, "observed_from": "2026-09-25", "observed_to": "2026-11-07", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "state": "settled", "series_code": "market_price", "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price", "restored": false, "headline_kind": "live_snapshot", "headline_part": "live", "settled_picks": 47, "matches": 23, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -258782, "staked_hundredths": 470000, "return_percent": "-55.06", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "period_from": "2026-10-09", "period_to": "2026-11-07", "status": "calculated", "method_version": "2.2", "short_history": false, "reason": null, "reasons": [], "sentence": "Forecast Record recorded 47 settled live picks by Lewis Nolan before kick-off across 23 matches between 9 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −55.1% on the total staked. Of the 242 predictions we hold for Lewis Nolan, 129 are linked to matches: 129 were recorded by us before kick-off. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "numbers": [ { "label": "Settled live picks", "value": "47", "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick", "note": null }, { "label": "Matches", "value": "23", "anchor": "/methodology/#match", "note": null }, { "label": "Net result", "value": "−2,587.82 points", "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement", "note": "100 points per pick" }, { "label": "Return at our recorded market price", "value": "−55.1%", "anchor": "/methodology/#roi", "note": "95% interval −75.7% to −33.3%" } ], "limitations": [ "This page combines Lewis Nolan across 3 platforms. The record above counts each prediction once, even when the same pick (match, market and selection) appeared on more than one platform; each platform keeps its own total under “Where Lewis Nolan publishes”." ], "other_series": [], "return_over_time": [ { "date": "2026-10-09", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -20000, "n": 2 }, { "date": "2026-10-10", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -16000, "n": 3 }, { "date": "2026-10-11", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -39548, "n": 7 }, { "date": "2026-10-12", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -53992, "n": 10 }, { "date": "2026-10-13", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -76746, "n": 14 }, { "date": "2026-10-16", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -96746, "n": 16 }, { "date": "2026-10-18", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -106746, "n": 17 }, { "date": "2026-10-20", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -112746, "n": 19 }, { "date": "2026-10-22", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -106034, "n": 20 }, { "date": "2026-10-25", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -107632, "n": 24 }, { "date": "2026-10-29", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -127632, "n": 26 }, { "date": "2026-11-01", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -135532, "n": 32 }, { "date": "2026-11-02", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -165532, "n": 35 }, { "date": "2026-11-03", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -205532, "n": 39 }, { "date": "2026-11-05", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -225532, "n": 41 }, { "date": "2026-11-06", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -235532, "n": 42 }, { "date": "2026-11-07", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -258782, "n": 47 } ], "return_over_time_parts": { "live": { "part": "live", "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "x_axis": "match_date", "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.", "settled_picks": 47, "matches": 23, "match_dates": 17, "period_from": "2026-10-09", "period_to": "2026-11-07", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "final_points_hundredths": -258782, "low": { "date": "2026-11-07", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -258782, "after_picks": 47 }, "high": { "date": "2026-10-10", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -16000, "after_picks": 3 }, "line_drawn": true, "steps": [ { "date": "2026-10-09", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -20000, "n": 2, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2026-10-10", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -16000, "n": 3, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-11", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -39548, "n": 7, "picks": 4 }, { "date": "2026-10-12", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -53992, "n": 10, "picks": 3 }, { "date": "2026-10-13", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -76746, "n": 14, "picks": 4 }, { "date": "2026-10-16", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -96746, "n": 16, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2026-10-18", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -106746, "n": 17, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-20", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -112746, "n": 19, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2026-10-22", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -106034, "n": 20, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-25", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -107632, "n": 24, "picks": 4 }, { "date": "2026-10-29", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -127632, "n": 26, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2026-11-01", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -135532, "n": 32, "picks": 6 }, { "date": "2026-11-02", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -165532, "n": 35, "picks": 3 }, { "date": "2026-11-03", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -205532, "n": 39, "picks": 4 }, { "date": "2026-11-05", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -225532, "n": 41, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2026-11-06", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -235532, "n": 42, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-11-07", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -258782, "n": 47, "picks": 5 } ] }, "archived": null }, "author_response": null, "cite": { "text": "Forecast Record recorded 47 settled live picks by Lewis Nolan before kick-off across 23 matches between 9 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −55.1% on the total staked. Of the 242 predictions we hold for Lewis Nolan, 129 are linked to matches: 129 were recorded by us before kick-off. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/lewis-nolan/", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "2.2" }, "origin": { "contract_version": "1", "predictions": 242, "under_review": 0, "no_match_linked": 113, "proven_predictions": 129, "proven_checked": 121, "proven_measured": 101, "proven_dates": 28, "parts": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.", "predictions": 129, "checked": 121, "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "series_code": "market_price", "main": { "settled_picks": 47, "void": 0, "matches": 23, "net_points_hundredths": -258782, "staked_hundredths": 470000, "return_percent": "-55.06", "interval_low": "-75.72", "interval_high": "-33.26", "interval_note": null, "period_from": "2026-10-09", "period_to": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "2.2", "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0", "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.2", "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 7 }, "same_picks": [ { "price": "Author-quoted price", "series_code": "author_price", "picks": 47, "return_main_percent": "-55.06", "return_other_percent": "-54.96", "settled_excluding_void": 47, "net_main_points_hundredths": -258782, "net_other_points_hundredths": -258300, "period_from": "2026-10-09", "period_to": "2026-11-07" }, { "price": "Closing price", "series_code": "closing_live", "picks": 38, "return_main_percent": "-55.11", "return_other_percent": "-56.65", "settled_excluding_void": 38, "net_main_points_hundredths": -209432, "net_other_points_hundredths": -215272, "period_from": "2026-10-09", "period_to": "2026-11-07" } ], "score": { "score_forecasts": 54, "exact_hits": 2, "exact_rate": 3.7, "outcome_checked": 54, "outcome_hits": 26, "outcome_rate": 48.1, "baseline_matches": 30, "baseline_distinct_matches": 30, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 10, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": 33.3, "favourite_hits": 16, "favourite_rate": 53.3, "price_basis": "our pre-match snapshot", "pending": 2, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [ "Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.", "2 of 54 score forecasts named the exact score (3.7%).", "The result implied by the named score was right in 10 of 30 matches; the market favourite was right in 16 of the same 30 matches.", "A pre-match market favourite is known for 30 of 54 forecasts; the comparison uses only those.", "The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest price in our own odds snapshot taken before kick-off.", "The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win)." ] }, "eligible": { "checked": 121, "priced": 47 }, "accuracy": { "picks": 47, "won": 13, "won_percent": "27.7", "implied_percent": "49.7", "left_out": 0, "by_market": [ { "market": "Team goals", "won": 4, "picks": 23, "implied_percent": "50.8" }, { "market": "Both teams to score", "won": 7, "picks": 11, "implied_percent": "62.5" }, { "market": "Player to score", "won": 1, "picks": 6, "implied_percent": "37.5" }, { "market": "Match result", "won": 0, "picks": 4, "implied_percent": "34.4" }, { "market": "Over/under goals", "won": 1, "picks": 2, "implied_percent": "46.1" }, { "market": "Player to assist", "won": 0, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "25.0" } ] }, "reviewed_after": { "predictions": 25, "right": 1, "wrong": 24, "other": 0 } }, { "code": "archived", "title": "Archived before kick-off", "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.", "predictions": 0, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null }, { "code": "found_after", "title": "Found after the match", "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.", "predictions": 0, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null } ] }, "live_alongside": null, "headline_record_ids": [ "n-036c19f5ffc6a43175db9ed1", "n-111b436dedb62c71a9a037dc", "n-16c3bf7dddefca343809ed13", "n-17d3e94583ab83bfd68adfdb", "n-1a65648dd7224077ba8c5414", "n-1b6695b577c35ff8d63814d8", "n-1e37331ea38e2bebd624790a", "n-1f42e994a246fdbc20be75d8", "n-214e7e7473a292bdd74d2bf7", "n-2654d59e1f9657c917021463", "n-279b7a37dbcc5a6db52abe08", "n-3c939f3a4541e10cb2510afc", "n-44cd7786e97a393ab8d5071f", "n-513501089c399ac429af5ee7", "n-546952c94e5c43e08f47563c", "n-54f218df49ae9e6f71c01d10", "n-5882b48592cd49d7ae8aea3d", "n-5de81cded2f16f4b1bd0a5d5", "n-6890518fd0c927eaf57356fd", "n-6f197786e16f10a44e5816a2", "n-7bd1a168d9fc5f3f039025aa", "n-84b74fa45ac2a9b04ea736fc", "n-8690ff5596b650c2396b6c97", "n-86a8f23dd116dff8165269bc", "n-896c4dd59feeca671bf6b2ec", "n-8f4698899b9fe55d07282023", "n-8fd2d2c6c0a771c00817cb8f", "n-93ec791d1611b43939c03461", "n-98261d1929c3ca0e95203b8a", "n-9a1e3d0243581d13b5cb049b", "n-a6bc1d529b197b5cf4473888", "n-b0f42d1cba4c709f3c097432", "n-b194a47db1c39801ace374bb", "n-bddb3fcbb7399c7307f825a3", "n-c27593a17c4eb9e53e187c05", "n-c80392add5531e5a36d2bb16", "n-cdc4156dd7da5aec1bdb42cf", "n-cee8cbac65c24b3f86609593", "n-da4abfdbc1b97dd8a38f1712", "n-e0313592fb7773f4e3a046d2", "n-e480e66fcc318f70e9ac6602", "n-ec4925766c6fd45d74964acb", "n-f298a4e11e744958a4839e6e", "n-f3349ced4cd07b34423abf45", "n-f5a8cce1b4d6c270b4dfa79a", "n-f60f49989add155812a5539c", "n-ff17164576fa4aa140d38023" ], "interval_low": "-75.72", "interval_high": "-33.26", "caption": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price · 100 points per pick · 9 October – 7 November 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under method v2.2", "record_from": "2026-09-25", "record_to": "2026-11-07" }, "recorded_picks": [ { "record_id": "n-513501089c399ac429af5ee7", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/picks/13/#pick-n-513501089c399ac429af5ee7", "match": "1. FSV Mainz 05 v FC Bayern München", "match_url": "/football/matches/1-fsv-mainz-05-vs-fc-bayern-munchen-2026-11-07/", "kickoff": "2026-11-07T14:30:00.000Z", "competition": "Bundesliga", "lead_hours": 36.3, "market_code": "team_total", "author_said": "Team goals over/under 3.5: FC Bayern München over 3.5 at 2.6", "quote": null, "group": "settled", "outcome": "Lost", "claim_outcome": "Lost", "final_score": "1-2", "reason": null, "reason_code": null, "points_hundredths": -10000, "series_code": "market_price", "series_short": "odds snapshot", "author_price": "2.6", "settled_price": "2.6650", "published_at": "2026-11-05T22:51:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-11-06T02:14:17.251Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": true, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-513501089c399ac429af5ee7", "quote_text": "Over 3.5 Goals for Bayern Munich at 8/5 (2.6)", "fragment_from": 3758, "fragment_to": 3803, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "rss", "url": "https://footballwhispers.com/blog/mainz-05-vs-bayern-munich-prediction-preview-07-11-2026/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Lewis Nolan", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "80670414e3c1622314ddb89c696f4a7806a0026146994c923cce1de484e37001", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-11-05T22:51:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-06T02:14:17.251Z", "executed_at": "2026-11-06T02:15:44.400Z", "statement_class": "priced", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": "s-103350a1ffb8", "display_name": "1. FSV Mainz 05 — FC Bayern München", "competition_name": "Bundesliga", "starts_at": "2026-11-07T14:30:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/1-fsv-mainz-05-vs-fc-bayern-munchen-2026-11-07/", "scoreline": "1-2", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "Team goals over/under 3.5", "outcome_label": "FC Bayern München over 3.5", "odds_set": { "by_author": "2.6", "our_snapshot": "2.6650", "our_snapshot_at": "2026-11-06T02:12:15.494Z", "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot", "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "loss", "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": "ours", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-11-05T22:51:00.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-11-05T22:51:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-06T02:14:17.251Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Team goals over/under 3.5", "choice": "FC Bayern München over 3.5", "author_odds": "2.6", "market_key": "team_total", "choice_key": "2-over", "period": "match", "line": "3.5", "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Team goals over/under 3.5: FC Bayern München over 3.5 at 2.6" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "loss", "scoreline": "1-2", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Lost: the final score was 1. FSV Mainz 05 1-2 FC Bayern München." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "edb1c869d22993ce7e589253ff6fc54c28d4f778e01e40ff73edf62b2f8e5189", "series_key": "author_price", "series_label": "At the author's stated price", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Team goals over/under 3.5", "choice": "FC Bayern München over 3.5", "decimal_odds": "2.6", "odds_role": "author_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "loss", "result_words": "Lost", "change_hundredths": -10000, "executed_at": "2026-11-06T02:15:41.095Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false }, { "operation_id": "45688947e1533c56d64a4b52d517c218961bd4ebf15ca3bddcd134d5a3ea60d4", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Team goals over/under 3.5", "choice": "FC Bayern München over 3.5", "decimal_odds": "2.6650", "odds_role": "market_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "loss", "result_words": "Lost", "change_hundredths": -10000, "executed_at": "2026-11-06T02:15:44.400Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "settled_pick", "authorship": { "material_author": "Lewis Nolan", "publisher": "Football Whispers", "forecaster": "Lewis Nolan", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://footballwhispers.com/blog/mainz-05-vs-bayern-munich-prediction-preview-07-11-2026/", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null, "choice_words": "FC Bayern München over 3.5 (Team goals over/under 3.5)" } }, { "record_id": "n-44cd7786e97a393ab8d5071f", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/picks/13/#pick-n-44cd7786e97a393ab8d5071f", "match": "1. FSV Mainz 05 v FC Bayern München", "match_url": "/football/matches/1-fsv-mainz-05-vs-fc-bayern-munchen-2026-11-07/", "kickoff": "2026-11-07T14:30:00.000Z", "competition": "Bundesliga", "lead_hours": 36.3, "market_code": "both_teams_score", "author_said": "Both teams to score: yes at 1.44", "quote": null, "group": "settled", "outcome": "Won", "claim_outcome": "Won", "final_score": "1-2", "reason": null, "reason_code": null, "points_hundredths": 4200, "series_code": "market_price", "series_short": "odds snapshot", "author_price": "1.44", "settled_price": "1.4200", "published_at": "2026-11-05T22:51:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-11-06T02:14:17.251Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": true, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": { "outcome": "yes", "price": "1.4200", "result": "Won", "points_hundredths": 4200, "picked_favourite": true }, "platform": null, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-44cd7786e97a393ab8d5071f", "quote_text": "Both Teams to Score at 4/9 (1.44)", "fragment_from": 3593, "fragment_to": 3626, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "rss", "url": "https://footballwhispers.com/blog/mainz-05-vs-bayern-munich-prediction-preview-07-11-2026/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Lewis Nolan", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "80670414e3c1622314ddb89c696f4a7806a0026146994c923cce1de484e37001", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-11-05T22:51:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-06T02:14:17.251Z", "executed_at": "2026-11-06T02:15:40.817Z", "statement_class": "priced", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": "s-103350a1ffb8", "display_name": "1. FSV Mainz 05 — FC Bayern München", "competition_name": "Bundesliga", "starts_at": "2026-11-07T14:30:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/1-fsv-mainz-05-vs-fc-bayern-munchen-2026-11-07/", "scoreline": "1-2", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "Both teams to score", "outcome_label": "yes", "odds_set": { "by_author": "1.44", "our_snapshot": "1.4200", "our_snapshot_at": "2026-11-06T02:12:15.494Z", "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot", "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "win", "simulation_change_hundredths": 4200, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": "ours", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-11-05T22:51:00.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-11-05T22:51:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-06T02:14:17.251Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Both teams to score", "choice": "yes", "author_odds": "1.44", "market_key": "both_teams_score", "choice_key": "yes", "period": "match", "line": null, "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Both teams to score: yes at 1.44" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "win", "scoreline": "1-2", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Won: the final score was 1. 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The line now matches the source and" }, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-8690ff5596b650c2396b6c97", "quote_text": "Under 1.5 Goals for Man City at 17/20 (1.85) a value prediction", "fragment_from": 4281, "fragment_to": 4344, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "rss", "url": "https://footballwhispers.com/blog/liverpool-vs-manchester-city-prediction-preview-11-10-2026/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Lewis Nolan", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "29a830b381798d895a7cf7f7699519a7cbc632e6d4e1f4930312675c84fb39fb", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-09T21:00:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-09T22:07:26.887Z", "executed_at": "2026-10-14T02:22:57.777Z", "statement_class": "priced", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": "s-890891f7d4b9", "display_name": "Liverpool — Manchester City", "competition_name": "Premier League", "starts_at": "2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/liverpool-vs-manchester-city-2026-10-11/", "scoreline": "0-3", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "Team goals over/under 1.5", "outcome_label": "Manchester City under 1.5", "odds_set": { "by_author": "1.85", "our_snapshot": "1.8547", "our_snapshot_at": "2026-10-09T22:06:59.589Z", "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot", "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "loss", "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": "ours", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-09T21:00:00.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-10-09T21:00:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-09T22:07:26.887Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Team goals over/under 1.5", "choice": "Manchester City under 1.5", "author_odds": "1.85", "market_key": "team_total", "choice_key": "2-under", "period": "match", "line": "1.5", "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Team goals over/under 1.5: Manchester City under 1.5 at 1.85" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "loss", "scoreline": "0-3", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Liverpool 0-3 Manchester City." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "64675a9b6f3193bd3afefa55bce9410622bc58cc465605a22beb1987a8239896", "series_key": "author_price", "series_label": "At the author's stated price", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Team goals over/under 1.5", "choice": "Manchester City under 1.5", "decimal_odds": "1.85", "odds_role": "author_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "loss", "result_words": "Lost", "change_hundredths": -10000, "executed_at": "2026-10-14T02:22:56.266Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false }, { "operation_id": "e7c2b0cfdbc552c39ea92eac1d0029cf08d59cedb52a4e22dd1a6b887489504d", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Team goals over/under 1.5", "choice": "Manchester City under 1.5", "decimal_odds": "1.8547", "odds_role": "market_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "loss", "result_words": "Lost", "change_hundredths": -10000, "executed_at": "2026-10-14T02:22:57.777Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [ { "at": "2026-10-14T02:00:59.081Z", "field_name": "line sign", "was": "Team goals over/under −1.5 · Manchester City under −1.5", "now": "Team goals over/under 1.5 · Manchester City under 1.5", "cause": "Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and the outcome is worked out on it. This pick had not been executed. It is now assessed under the published method." } ], "funnel_stage": "settled_pick", "authorship": { "material_author": "Lewis Nolan", "publisher": "Football Whispers", "forecaster": "Lewis Nolan", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://footballwhispers.com/blog/liverpool-vs-manchester-city-prediction-preview-11-10-2026/", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": { "at": "2026-10-14T02:00:59.081Z", "field": "line sign", "reason": "Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and the outcome is worked out on it. This pick had not been executed. It is now assessed under the publ", "version": 2, "url": "/corrections/#c-b39fe511c931", "text": "Corrected on 14 October 2026: Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. 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"recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": "s-890891f7d4b9", "display_name": "Liverpool — Manchester City", "competition_name": "Premier League", "starts_at": "2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/liverpool-vs-manchester-city-2026-10-11/", "scoreline": "0-3", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "Both teams to score", "outcome_label": "yes", "odds_set": { "by_author": "1.5", "our_snapshot": "1.4762", "our_snapshot_at": "2026-10-09T22:06:59.589Z", "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot", "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "loss", "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": "ours", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-09T21:00:00.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-10-09T21:00:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-09T22:07:26.887Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Both teams to score", "choice": "yes", "author_odds": "1.5", "market_key": "both_teams_score", "choice_key": "yes", "period": "match", "line": null, "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Both teams to score: yes at 1.5" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "loss", "scoreline": "0-3", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Liverpool 0-3 Manchester City." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "159639ccd8097aedbb6a6bb5c5bcf360c3d6c011160402410ceaa040c5ad0d82", "series_key": "author_price", "series_label": "At the author's stated price", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Both teams to score", "choice": "yes", "decimal_odds": "1.5", "odds_role": "author_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "loss", "result_words": "Lost", "change_hundredths": -10000, "executed_at": "2026-10-09T22:09:22.701Z", "methodology_version": "2.1", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false }, { "operation_id": "bce97208f7cebb0be00a0dac199499de8ca51e36d3a4b7d1107ede230bf0feee", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Both teams to score", "choice": "yes", "decimal_odds": "1.4762", "odds_role": "market_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "loss", "result_words": "Lost", "change_hundredths": -10000, "executed_at": "2026-10-10T23:11:44.815Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "settled_pick", "authorship": { "material_author": "Lewis Nolan", "publisher": "Football Whispers", "forecaster": "Lewis Nolan", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://footballwhispers.com/blog/liverpool-vs-manchester-city-prediction-preview-11-10-2026/", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null, "choice_words": "yes (Both teams to score)" } }, { "record_id": "n-fedf87f61d43b4d434d3d0f6", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/picks/6/#pick-n-fedf87f61d43b4d434d3d0f6", "match": "SC Freiburg v FC Schalke 04", "match_url": "/football/matches/sc-freiburg-vs-fc-schalke-04-2026-10-11/", "kickoff": "2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z", "competition": "Bundesliga", "lead_hours": 43.1, "market_code": "team_total", "author_said": "Team goals over/under 2.5: SC Freiburg over 2.5 at 2.25", "quote": null, "group": "settled", "outcome": "Lost", "claim_outcome": "Lost", "final_score": "2-1", "reason": null, "reason_code": null, "points_hundredths": -10000, "series_code": "author_price", "series_short": "author's odds", "author_price": "2.25", "settled_price": "2.25", "published_at": "2026-10-09T19:05:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T20:22:04.234Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-fedf87f61d43b4d434d3d0f6", "quote_text": "Given the hosts have scored at least three goals in five of their seven matches this term, it may be sensible to predict Over 2.5 Goals for Freiburg at 7/4 (2.25).", "fragment_from": 3398, "fragment_to": 3561, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "rss", "url": "https://footballwhispers.com/blog/freiburg-vs-schalke-04-prediction-preview-11-10-2026/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Lewis Nolan", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "28c8047f0c457f02dfd0ca8a2e010fce563de6e0891926d8ff3f0aa3d32c1d67", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-09T19:05:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-09T20:22:04.234Z", "executed_at": "2026-10-09T20:23:56.298Z", "statement_class": "priced", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": "s-40031903677a", "display_name": "SC Freiburg — FC Schalke 04", "competition_name": "Bundesliga", "starts_at": "2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/sc-freiburg-vs-fc-schalke-04-2026-10-11/", "scoreline": "2-1", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "Team goals over/under 2.5", "outcome_label": "SC Freiburg over 2.5", "odds_set": { "by_author": "2.25", "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "loss", "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": "ours", "series_label": "At the author's stated price", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-09T19:05:00.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-10-09T19:05:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-09T20:22:04.234Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Team goals over/under 2.5", "choice": "SC Freiburg over 2.5", "author_odds": "2.25", "market_key": "team_total", "choice_key": "1-over", "period": "match", "line": "2.5", "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Team goals over/under 2.5: SC Freiburg over 2.5 at 2.25" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "loss", "scoreline": "2-1", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Lost: the final score was SC Freiburg 2-1 FC Schalke 04." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "1dc9a72b99da212da4a6d2d8cb6839f6f9da4132a9f7719a9843207583bccc2c", "series_key": "author_price", "series_label": "At the author's stated price", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Team goals over/under 2.5", "choice": "SC Freiburg over 2.5", "decimal_odds": "2.25", "odds_role": "author_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "loss", "result_words": "Lost", "change_hundredths": -10000, "executed_at": "2026-10-09T20:23:56.298Z", "methodology_version": "2.1", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false }, { "operation_id": "dfb00ce20e652f1f754ad7ccecd95d5f77ad4403f334cb3c416ead7481c7c182", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Team goals over/under 2.5", "choice": "SC Freiburg over 2.5", "decimal_odds": null, "odds_role": null, "stake_hundredths": null, "status": "skipped", "status_text": "Not executed: ", "result": null, "result_words": null, "change_hundredths": null, "executed_at": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "settled_pick", "authorship": { "material_author": "Lewis Nolan", "publisher": "Football Whispers", "forecaster": "Lewis Nolan", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://footballwhispers.com/blog/freiburg-vs-schalke-04-prediction-preview-11-10-2026/", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null, "choice_words": "SC Freiburg over 2.5 (Team goals over/under 2.5)" } }, { "record_id": "n-e208dadca6db372c2ae1708f", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/picks/6/#pick-n-e208dadca6db372c2ae1708f", "match": "SC Freiburg v FC Schalke 04", "match_url": "/football/matches/sc-freiburg-vs-fc-schalke-04-2026-10-11/", "kickoff": "2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z", "competition": "Bundesliga", "lead_hours": 43.1, "market_code": "player_to_score", "author_said": "Player to score: Igor Matanovic to score at 2.2", "quote": null, "group": "settled", "outcome": "Lost", "claim_outcome": "Lost", "final_score": "2-1", "reason": null, "reason_code": null, "points_hundredths": -10000, "series_code": "author_price", "series_short": "author's odds", "author_price": "2.2", "settled_price": "2.2", "published_at": "2026-10-09T19:05:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T20:22:04.234Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-e208dadca6db372c2ae1708f", "quote_text": "Striker Igor Matanovic scored three goals in his last four games for Freiburg, and there could be value in predicting Igor Matanovic to Score at 6/5 (2.2).", "fragment_from": 3241, "fragment_to": 3396, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "rss", "url": "https://footballwhispers.com/blog/freiburg-vs-schalke-04-prediction-preview-11-10-2026/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Lewis Nolan", "authorship": 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{ "record_id": "n-f9c86051e73148144a53cc70", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Whispers predicts: Borussia Monchengladbach 1-3 Hoffenheim", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "ambiguous", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-16T17:01:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-16T17:44:15.357Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-8a9ad4e83c1686bc426cc630", "url": null, "match": null, 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"n-2e34a908af22f2bd6981926c", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Whispers predicts: Serbia 0-3 Netherlands", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "national-team match (Nations League, qualifiers, continental cups)", "reason_code": "outside_coverage", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-09-25T19:55:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-25T21:11:57.197Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-473e38798f04be1416df1fac", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "> Bulgaria to Win and Keep A Clean Sheet at 6/4 (2.5) | Likelihood: Possible", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "national-team match (Nations League, qualifiers, continental cups)", "reason_code": "outside_coverage", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-09-24T22:49:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-25T21:27:58.838Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-514f125e24309ed101dbd27a", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "> Bulgaria to Win the First Half at 2/1 (3) | Likelihood: Outsider", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "national-team match (Nations League, qualifiers, continental cups)", "reason_code": "outside_coverage", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-09-24T22:49:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-25T21:27:58.838Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-e62e71d54578fb76fe33baec", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "> Bulgaria to Score First at 5/6 (1.83) | Likelihood: Probable", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "national-team match (Nations League, qualifiers, continental cups)", "reason_code": "outside_coverage", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-09-24T22:49:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-25T21:27:58.838Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-0664c4a89cd9b36cd67ab975", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Whispers predicts: Bulgaria 3-0 Luxembourg", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "national-team match (Nations League, qualifiers, continental cups)", "reason_code": "outside_coverage", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-09-24T22:49:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-25T21:27:58.838Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-1e71b174d3009f2ec39a7f5c", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "> Estonia to Score First at 11/4 (3.75) | Likelihood: Outsider", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "national-team match (Nations League, qualifiers, continental cups)", "reason_code": "outside_coverage", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-09-24T21:24:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-25T21:27:58.897Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-3af54c2dcc229d4260fd748a", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "> Draw at Half Time at 6/4 (2.5) | Likelihood: Possible", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "national-team match (Nations League, qualifiers, continental cups)", "reason_code": "outside_coverage", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-09-24T21:24:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-25T21:27:58.897Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-ff72e5cbea6f25d82df5eff7", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "> Under 2.5 Goals at 23/20 (2.15) | Likelihood: Possible", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "national-team match (Nations League, qualifiers, continental cups)", "reason_code": "outside_coverage", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-09-24T21:24:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-25T21:27:58.897Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-247bf05dd949cd7c04d14caf", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Whispers predicts: Iceland 0-2 Estonia", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "national-team match (Nations League, qualifiers, continental cups)", "reason_code": "outside_coverage", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-09-24T21:24:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-25T21:27:58.897Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null } ], "lead_time": { "contract_version": 1, "threshold_hours": 2.0, "picks": 129, "before_kickoff": 129, "after_kickoff": 0, "at_least_2h": 129, "share_2h_plus": 100.0, "median_hours": 40.6, "min_hours": 3.4, "max_hours": 50.8, "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off." }, "baseline": { "contract_version": 1, "series_code": "market_price", "rule": "recorded-line-1.0", "state": "settled", "picks": 47, "settled_picks_all": 88, "excluded": { "market_without_favourite": 30, "no_recorded_line": 11, "favourite_not_settled": 0 }, "staked_hundredths": 470000, "author_net_hundredths": -134932, "favourite_net_hundredths": 27236, "difference_hundredths": -162168, "author_return_percent": -28.71, "favourite_return_percent": 5.79, "author_hit_rate": 40.4, "favourite_hit_rate": 59.6, "picked_favourite_share": 63.8, "by_market": [ { "market_code": "1x2", "picks": 34, "staked_hundredths": 340000, "author_net_hundredths": -137500, "favourite_net_hundredths": 13148, "author_hits": 11, "favourite_hits": 19, "picked_favourite": 20, "author_return_percent": -40.44, "favourite_return_percent": 3.87 }, { "market_code": "both_teams_score", "picks": 11, "staked_hundredths": 110000, "author_net_hundredths": 618, "favourite_net_hundredths": 17285, "author_hits": 7, "favourite_hits": 8, "picked_favourite": 10, "author_return_percent": 0.56, "favourite_return_percent": 15.71 }, { "market_code": "total", "picks": 2, "staked_hundredths": 20000, "author_net_hundredths": 1950, "favourite_net_hundredths": -3197, "author_hits": 1, "favourite_hits": 1, "picked_favourite": 0, "author_return_percent": 9.75, "favourite_return_percent": -15.98 } ], "return_over_time": [ { "kickoff": "2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -10000, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -10000 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -20000, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 3000 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -8300, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 14700 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -4300, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 18700 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -14300, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 8700 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -24300, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -1300 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -17848, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 5152 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -11713, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 11287 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -21713, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 1287 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -16157, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 6843 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -26157, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -3157 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -18911, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 4089 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -16558, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 6442 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -26558, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 13109 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -36558, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 17109 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-16T18:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -46558, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 26200 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -56558, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 16200 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -44258, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 28500 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -54258, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 42500 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -64258, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 49303 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -74258, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 56060 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-18T15:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -63758, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 66560 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-20T19:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -58996, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 71322 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -68996, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 61322 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -62284, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 68034 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -72284, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 58034 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -82284, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 70034 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -77484, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 74834 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -71032, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 81286 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -41032, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 71286 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -29082, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 61286 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-25T14:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -39082, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 51286 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-25T16:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -35432, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 54936 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-30T19:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -45432, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 44936 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-01T14:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -55432, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 34936 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-02T20:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -65432, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 24936 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-02T20:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -75432, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 14936 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-03T20:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -85432, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 4936 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-03T20:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -95432, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 18936 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-03T20:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -105432, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 32936 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-05T20:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -115432, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 22936 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-05T20:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -125432, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 12936 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-05T20:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -135432, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 2936 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-06T19:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -145432, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 16736 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-07T14:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -141232, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 20936 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-07T14:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -138232, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 23936 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-07T14:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -134932, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 27236 } ], "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out." }, "pagination": { "per_page": 20, "total": 242, "pages": 14, "page_urls": [ "/authors/lewis-nolan/", "/authors/lewis-nolan/picks/2/", "/authors/lewis-nolan/picks/3/", "/authors/lewis-nolan/picks/4/", "/authors/lewis-nolan/picks/5/", "/authors/lewis-nolan/picks/6/", "/authors/lewis-nolan/picks/7/", "/authors/lewis-nolan/picks/8/", "/authors/lewis-nolan/picks/9/", "/authors/lewis-nolan/picks/10/", "/authors/lewis-nolan/picks/11/", "/authors/lewis-nolan/picks/12/", "/authors/lewis-nolan/picks/13/", "/authors/lewis-nolan/picks/14/" ], "groups": { "settled": 57, "pending": 3, "excluded": 182 }, "continuation": "by_time", "page": 1, "first": 1, "last": 20, "author_url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/", "current": false }, "title_tag": "Lewis Nolan Predictions: Verified Record, Results and Sources", "calculator": { "url": "/tools/luck-or-skill/?n=47&odds=2.34&roi=-55.1&src=record", "n": 47, "odds": "2.34", "roi": "-55.1", "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price" }, "person": { "person_id": "o-e86fb7fb7bf20893f36d79f4", "type_code": "individual", "name_shown": "Lewis Nolan", "main_entity": "e-e86fb7fb7bf20893f36d79f4", "identity": { "status": "not_verified", "is_verified": false, "when": null, "source_list": [] }, "platform_list": [ { "entity_ref": "e-e86fb7fb7bf20893f36d79f4", "medium": "Football Whispers", "channel": "RSS feed", "domain": "footballwhispers.com", "source_info": "football-whispers", "byline": "Lewis Nolan", "url": "/sources/football-whispers/", "summary": { "statements": 362, "predictions": 191, "settled_picks": 47, "headline_kind": "live_snapshot", "return_percent": -55.06, "headline_part": "live", "period_from": "2026-09-25", "period_to": "2026-11-07" } }, { "entity_ref": "e-2ccbbd849c48d89f64846a52", "medium": "Sports Mole", "channel": "RSS feed", "domain": "sportsmole.co.uk", "source_info": "sports-mole", "byline": "Lewis Nolan", "url": "/sources/sports-mole/", "summary": { "statements": 79, "predictions": 4, "settled_picks": 0, "headline_kind": null, "return_percent": null, "headline_part": null, "period_from": "2026-09-27", "period_to": "2026-11-03" } }, { "entity_ref": "e-d37d15544cb443d81d02370c", "medium": "Sports Mole", "channel": "RSS feed", "domain": "sportsmole.co.uk", "source_info": "sports-mole", "byline": "Lewis Nolan", "url": null, "summary": { "statements": 553, "predictions": 56, "settled_picks": 0, "headline_kind": null, "return_percent": null, "headline_part": null, "period_from": "2026-09-27", "period_to": "2026-11-07" } } ], "previously": [], "trust_tier": "tracked" }, "data_revision": { "data_version": "2026-11-07.2", "updated": "2026-11-07", "current_release": "2026-11-07.2", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "2.2", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "series_code": "market_price", "sample": { "settled_picks": 47, "matches": 23, "void": 0, "period_from": "2026-10-09", "period_to": "2026-11-07", "composition_hash": "c129ab4c5b55575ee099de9124ca5ff5612ea7b9d162bb58719bc6a66847cc5c" }, "changes_url": "#changes", "corrections_url": "/corrections/" }, "number_changes": [ { "id": "zc-6ab3edbefe1f9a5a9923", "at": "2026-11-07T20:05:20.937Z", "data_version": "2026-11-07.2", "previous_data_version": "2026-11-07.1", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-11-06.2", "return_percent": "-55.01", "settled_picks": 41, "matches": 21, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "8cbda57f9056b90611ec36e4d657bb853cd0fb0b473c88333f7d0a12697c6d28", "text": "−55.01% on 41 settled picks across 21 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-11-07.2", "return_percent": "-55.06", "settled_picks": 47, "matches": 23, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "c129ab4c5b55575ee099de9124ca5ff5612ea7b9d162bb58719bc6a66847cc5c", "text": "−55.06% on 47 settled picks across 23 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture); also 5 new results.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 6, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-e2b107d81da344b76856", "at": "2026-11-07T00:03:19.781Z", "data_version": "2026-11-06.2", "previous_data_version": "2026-11-06.1", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-11-06.1", "return_percent": "-52.70", "settled_picks": 39, "matches": 20, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "e2f1ba0ece77a55da53d55b65d5e40f6738a98bcf7f529f1f9eaa48544dc2a7c", "text": "−52.70% on 39 settled picks across 20 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-11-06.2", "return_percent": "-55.01", "settled_picks": 41, "matches": 21, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "8cbda57f9056b90611ec36e4d657bb853cd0fb0b473c88333f7d0a12697c6d28", "text": "−55.01% on 41 settled picks across 21 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture); also 1 new result.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 2, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-1c438b970b5f78e08055", "at": "2026-11-06T14:46:17.511Z", "data_version": "2026-11-06.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-11-05.3", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-11-04.1", "return_percent": "-50.14", "settled_picks": 37, "matches": 19, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "620c1287494f7cf27764915e0f54a34d05f3be8254525071c728e958c6b2f232", "text": "−50.14% on 37 settled picks across 19 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-11-06.1", "return_percent": "-52.70", "settled_picks": 39, "matches": 20, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "e2f1ba0ece77a55da53d55b65d5e40f6738a98bcf7f529f1f9eaa48544dc2a7c", "text": "−52.70% on 39 settled picks across 20 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "2 new settled picks from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 2, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-fe84c7a7364364cda424", "at": "2026-11-04T03:35:56.412Z", "data_version": "2026-11-04.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-11-03.3", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-11-03.1", "return_percent": "-44.10", "settled_picks": 33, "matches": 18, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "797ce74b4d4036d0ecdc2242656b7e2d6142181065e5e7dd9c7ffaf3751112b5", "text": "−44.10% on 33 settled picks across 18 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-11-04.1", "return_percent": "-50.14", "settled_picks": 37, "matches": 19, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "620c1287494f7cf27764915e0f54a34d05f3be8254525071c728e958c6b2f232", "text": "−50.14% on 37 settled picks across 19 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 4 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 4, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-04220d59f9e517b9c32d", "at": "2026-11-03T06:24:00.880Z", "data_version": "2026-11-03.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-11-02.3", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-11-02.1", "return_percent": "-40.49", "settled_picks": 31, "matches": 17, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "acfc7f5d089364f7bee486837950bebe3969822b980ffc8310d14ab67d6c9e5c", "text": "−40.49% on 31 settled picks across 17 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-11-03.1", "return_percent": "-44.10", "settled_picks": 33, "matches": 18, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "797ce74b4d4036d0ecdc2242656b7e2d6142181065e5e7dd9c7ffaf3751112b5", "text": "−44.10% on 33 settled picks across 18 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "2 new settled picks from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 2, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-ff7219b19a44184f1df6", "at": "2026-11-02T01:08:19.111Z", "data_version": "2026-11-02.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-11-01.3", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-11-01.3", "return_percent": "-44.49", "settled_picks": 27, "matches": 15, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "dbaad43f414d1c4d8ea16e5819095060c9012a0513697d6a9eac7db8cd49262f", "text": "−44.49% on 27 settled picks across 15 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-11-02.1", "return_percent": "-40.49", "settled_picks": 31, "matches": 17, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "acfc7f5d089364f7bee486837950bebe3969822b980ffc8310d14ab67d6c9e5c", "text": "−40.49% on 31 settled picks across 17 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 4 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 4, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-2df19b96eb9a7c96c820", "at": "2026-11-01T19:56:40.745Z", "data_version": "2026-11-01.3", "previous_data_version": "2026-11-01.2", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-30.1", "return_percent": "-47.05", "settled_picks": 25, "matches": 14, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "b4eeb977bd797db2e4c60251e7aebebf8da51fad7d3a8e62af74110a6ab0be5e", "text": "−47.05% on 25 settled picks across 14 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-11-01.3", "return_percent": "-44.49", "settled_picks": 27, "matches": 15, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "dbaad43f414d1c4d8ea16e5819095060c9012a0513697d6a9eac7db8cd49262f", "text": "−44.49% on 27 settled picks across 15 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 2, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-05aea70603cb6b887bec", "at": "2026-10-30T08:26:41.528Z", "data_version": "2026-10-30.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-29.1", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-27.1", "return_percent": "-42.45", "settled_picks": 23, "matches": 13, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "9aa6171c02885720fc56330bf0a141aff29a42e6d1c0895a7b84cb2627efa562", "text": "−42.45% on 23 settled picks across 13 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-30.1", "return_percent": "-47.05", "settled_picks": 25, "matches": 14, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "b4eeb977bd797db2e4c60251e7aebebf8da51fad7d3a8e62af74110a6ab0be5e", "text": "−47.05% on 25 settled picks across 14 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 2, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-c1ab765f586582e81e1b", "at": "2026-10-27T07:47:02.386Z", "data_version": "2026-10-27.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-26.1", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-24.1", "return_percent": "-50.54", "settled_picks": 19, "matches": 11, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "ad2aa0678d4462cb9a6e9d508df029dbdd14f97a56f4659e6a207a27621b0e5e", "text": "−50.54% on 19 settled picks across 11 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-27.1", "return_percent": "-42.45", "settled_picks": 23, "matches": 13, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "9aa6171c02885720fc56330bf0a141aff29a42e6d1c0895a7b84cb2627efa562", "text": "−42.45% on 23 settled picks across 13 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "4 new settled picks from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 4, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-f1cb132e10f661df853b", "at": "2026-10-24T01:51:11.728Z", "data_version": "2026-10-24.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-23.4", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-22.6", "return_percent": "-52.96", "settled_picks": 17, "matches": 11, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "b69d86b08461601a5b472dba39601bb8e67ad63b03d941899e3af0ac88ac6709", "text": "−52.96% on 17 settled picks across 11 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-24.1", "return_percent": "-50.54", "settled_picks": 19, "matches": 11, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "ad2aa0678d4462cb9a6e9d508df029dbdd14f97a56f4659e6a207a27621b0e5e", "text": "−50.54% on 19 settled picks across 11 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 2, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-2c023db34f579fa81b2d", "at": "2026-10-22T22:37:17.307Z", "data_version": "2026-10-22.6", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-22.5", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-21.1", "return_percent": "-60.47", "settled_picks": 16, "matches": 10, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "396b9c86e62f8e25d5e38e2973b94923226b3136e1311db56b6d5eb5a0252b15", "text": "−60.47% on 16 settled picks across 10 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-22.6", "return_percent": "-52.96", "settled_picks": 17, "matches": 11, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "b69d86b08461601a5b472dba39601bb8e67ad63b03d941899e3af0ac88ac6709", "text": "−52.96% on 17 settled picks across 11 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-cf93ff97b905445d285b", "at": "2026-10-21T02:27:55.722Z", "data_version": "2026-10-21.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-20.8", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-18.8", "return_percent": "-57.83", "settled_picks": 15, "matches": 9, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "ec37f28797b89bf62b5b2be89d48df298cbf5743a7c6451a07b0f0a3de3733ff", "text": "−57.83% on 15 settled picks across 9 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-21.1", "return_percent": "-60.47", "settled_picks": 16, "matches": 10, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "396b9c86e62f8e25d5e38e2973b94923226b3136e1311db56b6d5eb5a0252b15", "text": "−60.47% on 16 settled picks across 10 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-920c42844788e225790b", "at": "2026-10-18T21:29:31.006Z", "data_version": "2026-10-18.8", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-18.7", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-17.4", "return_percent": "-54.82", "settled_picks": 14, "matches": 8, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "b061fa1d7119a6f6cb5a03f30bf3e485e91c3e08150798101d920faaa9ed4217", "text": "−54.82% on 14 settled picks across 8 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-18.8", "return_percent": "-57.83", "settled_picks": 15, "matches": 9, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "ec37f28797b89bf62b5b2be89d48df298cbf5743a7c6451a07b0f0a3de3733ff", "text": "−57.83% on 15 settled picks across 9 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-0e43fd2aca7ad8c902da", "at": "2026-10-17T20:13:03.224Z", "data_version": "2026-10-17.4", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-17.3", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-17.1", "return_percent": "-47.29", "settled_picks": 12, "matches": 7, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "a2528980489a1eb7d0ab25df859b8c7750912d92aa0874117e4739add3a15740", "text": "−47.29% on 12 settled picks across 7 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-17.4", "return_percent": "-54.82", "settled_picks": 14, "matches": 8, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "b061fa1d7119a6f6cb5a03f30bf3e485e91c3e08150798101d920faaa9ed4217", "text": "−54.82% on 14 settled picks across 8 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 2, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-aa55aa7d51c5f19747a6", "at": "2026-10-17T04:29:28.512Z", "data_version": "2026-10-17.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-16.7", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-14.2", "return_percent": "-55.22", "settled_picks": 11, "matches": 6, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "0a61b6db3a33465f1a2ef2dd16646a602817cef1fda2b3990106986e507d9903", "text": "−55.22% on 11 settled picks across 6 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-17.1", "return_percent": "-47.29", "settled_picks": 12, "matches": 7, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "a2528980489a1eb7d0ab25df859b8c7750912d92aa0874117e4739add3a15740", "text": "−47.29% on 12 settled picks across 7 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-8a6e6b66c7bcb20907c3", "at": "2026-10-14T03:16:19.355Z", "data_version": "2026-10-14.2", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-14.1", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/", "category": "data_corrected", "category_words": "Data corrected", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-13.6", "return_percent": "-50.75", "settled_picks": 10, "matches": 6, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "258dbce25790d25ce0b974b19e44a19be4c46ab9e14303574d477b58d9e644c1", "text": "−50.75% on 10 settled picks across 6 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-14.2", "return_percent": "-55.22", "settled_picks": 11, "matches": 6, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "0a61b6db3a33465f1a2ef2dd16646a602817cef1fda2b3990106986e507d9903", "text": "−55.22% on 11 settled picks across 6 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Data corrected: line sign (1 pick); 1 pick added.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": "i-a7fdf21ca3acd7c99e83" }, { "id": "zc-b645c4976da76a5479c1", "at": "2026-10-13T21:34:28.953Z", "data_version": "2026-10-13.6", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-13.5", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-12.5", "return_percent": "-54.27", "settled_picks": 7, "matches": 4, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "6544091ae8576133b2f2038dd7a12a6c8a3c4760b51842ab85cb7d2c9b1f799e", "text": "−379.92 points on 7 settled picks across 4 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-13.6", "return_percent": "-50.75", "settled_picks": 10, "matches": 6, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "258dbce25790d25ce0b974b19e44a19be4c46ab9e14303574d477b58d9e644c1", "text": "−50.75% on 10 settled picks across 6 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 3 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 3, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-e2887b1ca16dcf6f6099", "at": "2026-10-12T21:23:00.584Z", "data_version": "2026-10-12.5", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-12.4", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-11.7", "return_percent": "-58.87", "settled_picks": 4, "matches": 3, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "3888984f07e828a570bbcc69969a6285107306c17a48be674f4f0742aaf2a92b", "text": "−235.48 points on 4 settled picks across 3 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-12.5", "return_percent": "-54.27", "settled_picks": 7, "matches": 4, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "6544091ae8576133b2f2038dd7a12a6c8a3c4760b51842ab85cb7d2c9b1f799e", "text": "−379.92 points on 7 settled picks across 4 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "3 new settled picks from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 3, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-5bf1e093c395ffb33530", "at": "2026-10-11T20:14:51.236Z", "data_version": "2026-10-11.7", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-11.6", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-10.4", "return_percent": "-100.00", "settled_picks": 2, "matches": 1, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "865e13eb565ec92dfa97db04c61b79d8c7d59fa8b1f885d5769aa4ce6f6a44e0", "text": "−200.00 points on 2 settled picks across 1 match · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-11.7", "return_percent": "-58.87", "settled_picks": 4, "matches": 3, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "3888984f07e828a570bbcc69969a6285107306c17a48be674f4f0742aaf2a92b", "text": "−235.48 points on 4 settled picks across 3 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "2 new settled picks from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 2, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-e06762268ce3ad7d1390", "at": "2026-10-10T23:53:02.873Z", "data_version": "2026-10-10.4", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-10.3", "url": "/authors/lewis-nolan/", "category": "method_changed", "category_words": "Method changed", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-10.1", "return_percent": "-100.00", "settled_picks": 2, "matches": 1, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.1", "composition_hash": "865e13eb565ec92dfa97db04c61b79d8c7d59fa8b1f885d5769aa4ce6f6a44e0", "text": "−200.00 points on 2 settled picks across 1 match · independent odds snapshot · method 2.1" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-10.4", "return_percent": "-100.00", "settled_picks": 2, "matches": 1, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "865e13eb565ec92dfa97db04c61b79d8c7d59fa8b1f885d5769aa4ce6f6a44e0", "text": "−200.00 points on 2 settled picks across 1 match · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Method 2.2 (11 October 2026): the live market price of a pick is now the price at the moment we first recorded it (median of bookmakers in our price feed, quote no older than 5 minutes; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, before kick-off), not the price when our checks admitted it. Picks recorded before kick-off but checked after it are now settled the same way; picks with no price at that moment have no return. Was: −200.00 points (2 settled picks). Now: −200.00 points (2 settled picks).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 0, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": "i-eef945ab2fd92f190140" } ], "counts_by_slice": { "portions": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "settled_picks": 47, "total_check": true, "market_list": [ { "code_name": "team_total", "in_words": "Team goals", "url": null, "settled_picks": 23, "won": 4, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -171850, "return_percent": "-74.7", "period_from": "2026-10-09", "period_to": "2026-11-07", "small_sample": false, "average_odds": "2.15", "odds_from_author": 23, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 }, { "code_name": "both_teams_score", "in_words": "Both teams to score", "url": null, "settled_picks": 11, "won": 7, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": 618, "return_percent": "0.6", "period_from": "2026-10-10", "period_to": "2026-11-07", "small_sample": false, "average_odds": "1.63", "odds_from_author": 11, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 }, { "code_name": "player_to_score", "in_words": "Player to score", "url": null, "settled_picks": 6, "won": 1, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -39500, "return_percent": "-65.8", "period_from": "2026-10-25", "period_to": "2026-11-07", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "2.74", "odds_from_author": 6, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 }, { "code_name": "1x2", "in_words": "Match result", "url": null, "settled_picks": 4, "won": 0, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -40000, "return_percent": "-100.0", "period_from": "2026-10-12", "period_to": "2026-11-03", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "3.09", "odds_from_author": 4, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 }, { "code_name": "total", "in_words": "Over/under goals", "url": null, "settled_picks": 2, "won": 1, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": 1950, "return_percent": "9.8", "period_from": "2026-10-18", "period_to": "2026-10-25", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "2.15", "odds_from_author": 2, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 }, { "code_name": "player_assist", "in_words": "Player to assist", "url": null, "settled_picks": 1, "won": 0, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -10000, "return_percent": "-100.0", "period_from": "2026-11-03", "period_to": "2026-11-03", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "4.00", "odds_from_author": 1, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 } ], "leagues": [ { "code_name": "Bundesliga", "in_words": "Bundesliga", "url": "/football/competitions/bundesliga/", "settled_picks": 18, "won": 7, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -70698, "return_percent": "-39.3", "period_from": "2026-10-09", "period_to": "2026-11-07", "small_sample": false, "average_odds": "2.00", "odds_from_author": 18, "odds_from_snapshot": 0, "league_markets": [ { "code_name": "team_total", "in_words": "Team goals", "settled_picks": 11, "won": 3, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -65850, "return_percent": "-59.9", "period_from": "2026-10-09", "period_to": "2026-11-07", "small_sample": false, "average_odds": "2.02", "odds_from_author": 11, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 }, { "code_name": "both_teams_score", "in_words": "Both teams to score", "settled_picks": 3, "won": 3, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": 14652, "return_percent": null, "period_from": "2026-10-10", "period_to": "2026-11-07", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "1.50", "odds_from_author": 3, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 }, { "code_name": "player_to_score", "in_words": "Player to score", "settled_picks": 3, "won": 1, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -9500, "return_percent": null, "period_from": "2026-11-01", "period_to": "2026-11-07", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "2.40", "odds_from_author": 3, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 }, { "code_name": "total", "in_words": "Over/under goals", "settled_picks": 1, "won": 0, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -10000, "return_percent": null, "period_from": "2026-10-18", "period_to": "2026-10-18", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "2.10", "odds_from_author": 1, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 } ] }, { "code_name": "Premier League", "in_words": "Premier League", "url": "/football/competitions/premier-league/", "settled_picks": 14, "won": 3, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -86042, "return_percent": "-61.5", "period_from": "2026-10-11", "period_to": "2026-11-02", "small_sample": false, "average_odds": "2.54", "odds_from_author": 14, "odds_from_snapshot": 0, "league_markets": [ { "code_name": "team_total", "in_words": "Team goals", "settled_picks": 5, "won": 0, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -50000, "return_percent": null, "period_from": "2026-10-11", "period_to": "2026-11-02", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "2.75", "odds_from_author": 5, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 }, { "code_name": "both_teams_score", "in_words": "Both teams to score", "settled_picks": 3, "won": 2, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": 2008, "return_percent": null, "period_from": "2026-10-11", "period_to": "2026-10-25", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "1.58", "odds_from_author": 3, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 }, { "code_name": "player_to_score", "in_words": "Player to score", "settled_picks": 3, "won": 0, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -30000, "return_percent": null, "period_from": "2026-10-25", "period_to": "2026-11-02", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "3.08", "odds_from_author": 3, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 }, { "code_name": "1x2", "in_words": "Match result", "settled_picks": 2, "won": 0, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -20000, "return_percent": null, "period_from": "2026-10-12", "period_to": "2026-11-02", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "2.83", "odds_from_author": 2, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 }, { "code_name": "total", "in_words": "Over/under goals", "settled_picks": 1, "won": 1, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": 11950, "return_percent": null, "period_from": "2026-10-25", "period_to": "2026-10-25", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "2.20", "odds_from_author": 1, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 } ] }, { "code_name": "UEFA Champions League", "in_words": "UEFA Champions League", "url": "/football/competitions/uefa-champions-league/", "settled_picks": 10, "won": 2, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -68754, "return_percent": "-68.8", "period_from": "2026-10-13", "period_to": "2026-11-03", "small_sample": false, "average_odds": "2.37", "odds_from_author": 10, "odds_from_snapshot": 0, "league_markets": [ { "code_name": "team_total", "in_words": "Team goals", "settled_picks": 4, "won": 1, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -26000, "return_percent": null, "period_from": "2026-10-13", "period_to": "2026-11-03", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "1.94", "odds_from_author": 4, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 }, { "code_name": "both_teams_score", "in_words": "Both teams to score", "settled_picks": 3, "won": 1, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -12754, "return_percent": null, "period_from": "2026-10-13", "period_to": "2026-11-03", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "1.73", "odds_from_author": 3, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 }, { "code_name": "1x2", "in_words": "Match result", "settled_picks": 2, "won": 0, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -20000, "return_percent": null, "period_from": "2026-10-13", "period_to": "2026-11-03", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "3.35", "odds_from_author": 2, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 }, { "code_name": "player_assist", "in_words": "Player to assist", "settled_picks": 1, "won": 0, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -10000, "return_percent": null, "period_from": "2026-11-03", "period_to": "2026-11-03", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "4.00", "odds_from_author": 1, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 } ] }, { "code_name": "UEFA Europa League", "in_words": "UEFA Europa League", "url": "/football/competitions/uefa-europa-league/", "settled_picks": 3, "won": 1, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -13288, "return_percent": "-44.3", "period_from": "2026-10-22", "period_to": "2026-11-05", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "1.66", "odds_from_author": 3, "odds_from_snapshot": 0, "league_markets": [ { "code_name": "both_teams_score", "in_words": "Both teams to score", "settled_picks": 2, "won": 1, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -3288, "return_percent": null, "period_from": "2026-10-22", "period_to": "2026-11-05", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "1.73", "odds_from_author": 2, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 }, { "code_name": "team_total", "in_words": "Team goals", "settled_picks": 1, "won": 0, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -10000, "return_percent": null, "period_from": "2026-11-05", "period_to": "2026-11-05", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "1.50", "odds_from_author": 1, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 } ] }, { "code_name": "EFL Cup (Carabao)", "in_words": "EFL Cup (Carabao)", "url": "/football/competitions/efl-cup-carabao/", "settled_picks": 2, "won": 0, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -20000, "return_percent": "-100.0", "period_from": "2026-10-29", "period_to": "2026-10-29", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "2.10", "odds_from_author": 2, "odds_from_snapshot": 0, "league_markets": [ { "code_name": "team_total", "in_words": "Team goals", "settled_picks": 2, "won": 0, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -20000, "return_percent": null, "period_from": "2026-10-29", "period_to": "2026-10-29", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "2.10", "odds_from_author": 2, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 } ] } ], "best_slice": null } ], "best_slice": null }, "author_card": { "body": "Record tracked by Forecast Record since 25 September 2026 · 242 predictions · last change 7 November 2026", "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/lewis-nolan/", "s": "2026-09-25", "prediction_count": 242, "refreshed_at": "2026-11-07", "html": "Record tracked by Forecast Record since 25 September 2026 · 242 predictions · last change 7 November 2026" }, "trust": { "tier": "tracked", "in_words": "Tracked", "settled_count": 121, "days": 34, "weeks": 5, "archive": false, "in_review": false, "own_page": true, "won_count": 21, "first_settled_on": "2026-10-05", 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