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"flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals", "choice": "over 2.5", "author_odds": "1.64", "market_key": "total", "choice_key": "over", "period": "match", "line": "2.5", "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Over/Under 2.5 goals: over 2.5 at 1.64" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "win", "scoreline": "2-2", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Won: the final score was FC Bayern München 2-2 Arsenal." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "501bb2600e6d860cd091bd43de8c8c26e4d3e70c2e03c667ac6ab09ba6232c1c", "series_key": "author_price", "series_label": "At the author's stated price", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals", "choice": "over 2.5", "decimal_odds": 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"Juan Pablo Aravena", "publisher": "sportsbettingdime.com", "forecaster": "Juan Pablo Aravena", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/soccer/bayern-munich-vs-arsenal-picks-goalscorer-predictions-oct-21/", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null, "choice_words": "over 2.5 (Over/Under 2.5 goals)" } }, { "record_id": "n-6c577ce97c8d56b5993e8810", "url": "/authors/juan-pablo-aravena/picks/3/#pick-n-6c577ce97c8d56b5993e8810", "match": "FC Bayern München v Arsenal", "match_url": "/football/matches/fc-bayern-munchen-vs-arsenal-2026-10-21/", "kickoff": "2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z", "competition": "UEFA Champions League", "lead_hours": 4.6, "market_code": "handicap_asian", "author_said": "Asian handicap 0.5: Arsenal +0.5", "quote": null, "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": "Won", "final_score": "2-2", "reason": "graded against the result: right", "reason_code": "not_checked", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-21T14:05:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-21T14:21:10.940Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-6c577ce97c8d56b5993e8810", "quote_text": "Handicap Pick: Arsenal [telefon-vyrezan] at Novig)", "fragment_from": 4435, "fragment_to": 4485, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "rss", "url": 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null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": "win", "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-21T14:05:00.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-10-21T14:05:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-21T14:21:10.940Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Asian handicap 0.5", "choice": "Arsenal +0.5", "author_odds": null, "market_key": "handicap_asian", "choice_key": "2", "period": "match", "line": "0.5", "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Asian handicap 0.5: Arsenal +0.5" }, 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"forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/soccer/bayern-munich-vs-arsenal-picks-goalscorer-predictions-oct-21/", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null, "choice_words": "Arsenal +0.5" } }, { "record_id": "n-cfece657cba42dfdeceea73a", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "The Pick: Martin Odegaard Anytime Goalscorer (+550 at BetMGM)", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-21T14:05:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-21T14:21:10.940Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-2f5e17a80018cc2e668e6930", "url": "/authors/juan-pablo-aravena/picks/3/#pick-n-2f5e17a80018cc2e668e6930", "match": "Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur", "match_url": "/football/matches/chelsea-vs-tottenham-hotspur-2026-10-24/", "kickoff": "2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z", "competition": "Premier League", "lead_hours": 3.1, "market_code": "player_to_score", "author_said": "Player to score: João Pedro to score at 2.2", "quote": null, "group": "pending", "outcome": "Pending", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": "0-2", "reason": "the match is played; settlement follows", "reason_code": "waiting", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-24T13:15:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-24T13:21:16.623Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-2f5e17a80018cc2e668e6930", "quote_text": "Pick: Joao Pedro 1+ Goals (+120 at BetMGM)\n\nIdentifying betting value demands targeting elite offensive volume. Chelsea has scored 17 goals in seven Premier League matches, and Joao Pedro acts as the primary catalyst.\n\nI am playing Joao Pedro as an Anytime Goalscorer at +120 odds at BetMGM. The underlying production metrics thoroughly validate this price. Pedro boasts five goals in six matches, translating to a blistering 0.83 goals per match.\n\nHe consistently generates high-leverage scoring opportunities, logging six total shots on target this season. 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"starts_at": "2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/chelsea-vs-tottenham-hotspur-2026-10-24/", "scoreline": "0-2", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "Player to score", "outcome_label": "João Pedro to score", "odds_set": { "by_author": "2.2", "our_snapshot": "2.2000", "our_snapshot_at": "2026-10-24T13:20:58.220Z", "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot", "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "unknown", "simulation_change_hundredths": 0, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": "ours", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-24T13:15:00.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-10-24T13:15:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-24T13:21:16.623Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Player to score", "choice": "João Pedro to score", "author_odds": "2.2", "market_key": "player_to_score", "choice_key": "yes", "period": "match", "line": null, "subject": "player_goals", "in_words": "Player to score: João Pedro to score at 2.2" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "unknown", "scoreline": "0-2", "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the result data received so far does not include the player statistics this market needs", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Pending: the result data received so far does not include the player statistics this market needs." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "73480fc771e568cb18892cce2faf3b332ab80b64221b5b656785c5f82b5e9c20", "series_key": "author_price", "series_label": "At the author's stated price", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Player to score", "choice": "João Pedro to score", "decimal_odds": "2.2", "odds_role": "author_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "unknown", "result_words": "Pending", "change_hundredths": null, "executed_at": "2026-10-24T16:00:59.561Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false }, { "operation_id": "84884ca70a5b2b03be62547e25739769e3f0b115510ebb9121960c371796c451", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Player to score", "choice": "João Pedro to score", "decimal_odds": "2.2000", "odds_role": "market_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "unknown", "result_words": "Pending", "change_hundredths": null, "executed_at": "2026-10-24T16:01:00.588Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "qualifying_pick", "authorship": { "material_author": "Juan Pablo Aravena", "publisher": "sportsbettingdime.com", "forecaster": "Juan Pablo Aravena", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/soccer/tottenham-vs-chelsea-expert-picks-goalscorer-predictions-oct-24/", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null, "choice_words": "João Pedro to score" } }, { "record_id": "n-82347bc585705152d961f660", "url": "/authors/juan-pablo-aravena/picks/3/#pick-n-82347bc585705152d961f660", "match": "Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur", "match_url": "/football/matches/chelsea-vs-tottenham-hotspur-2026-10-24/", "kickoff": "2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z", "competition": "Premier League", "lead_hours": 3.1, "market_code": "1x2", "author_said": "1X2, match result: Chelsea at 1.88", "quote": null, "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": "Lost", "final_score": "0-2", "reason": "graded against the result: wrong", "reason_code": "not_checked", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-24T13:15:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-24T13:21:16.623Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-82347bc585705152d961f660", "quote_text": "I am backing the Chelsea moneyline as my primary play. You can find their standard moneyline priced at -128 on BetMGM, but Novig offers a superior payout of 53% or -113 for a Chelsea victory.", "fragment_from": 3365, "fragment_to": 3556, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "rss", "url": "https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/soccer/tottenham-vs-chelsea-expert-picks-goalscorer-predictions-oct-24/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Juan Pablo Aravena", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "62c7934661ae2724be1077d664cb37e741a57defec46a79bc1ac8921e0154838", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-24T13:15:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-24T13:21:16.623Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "priced", "status": "ambiguous", "cause": "", "cause_code": "not_checked", "event": { "event_id": "s-75e81bac336b", "display_name": "Chelsea — Tottenham Hotspur", "competition_name": "Premier League", "starts_at": "2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/chelsea-vs-tottenham-hotspur-2026-10-24/", "scoreline": "0-2", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "outcome_label": "Chelsea", "odds_set": { "by_author": "1.88", "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": "loss", "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-24T13:15:00.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-10-24T13:15:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-24T13:21:16.623Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "1X2, match result", "choice": "Chelsea", "author_odds": "1.88", "market_key": "1x2", "choice_key": "1", "period": "match", "line": null, "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "1X2, match result: Chelsea at 1.88" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "loss", "scoreline": "0-2", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Chelsea 0-2 Tottenham Hotspur." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "bc3cda3bd84efdc6735d9e523c59a099f838d4c443f851e3ca85b2d6f52188b3", "series_key": "author_price", "series_label": "At the author's stated price", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "choice": "Chelsea", "decimal_odds": null, "odds_role": null, "stake_hundredths": null, "status": "skipped", "status_text": "Not executed: ", "result": null, "result_words": null, "change_hundredths": null, "executed_at": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false }, { "operation_id": "8640bb0ba57d3832c2d6e1f9fe2f5d060c96239b564c4d47c989bc4aaeab8dbc", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "choice": "Chelsea", "decimal_odds": null, "odds_role": null, "stake_hundredths": null, "status": "skipped", "status_text": "Not executed: ", "result": null, "result_words": null, "change_hundredths": null, "executed_at": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": { "material_author": "Juan Pablo Aravena", "publisher": "sportsbettingdime.com", "forecaster": "Juan Pablo Aravena", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/soccer/tottenham-vs-chelsea-expert-picks-goalscorer-predictions-oct-24/", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null, "choice_words": "Chelsea to win" } }, { "record_id": "n-e7aab9bda62ebff4f8879db7", "url": "/authors/juan-pablo-aravena/picks/3/#pick-n-e7aab9bda62ebff4f8879db7", "match": "Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur", "match_url": "/football/matches/chelsea-vs-tottenham-hotspur-2026-10-24/", "kickoff": "2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z", "competition": "Premier League", "lead_hours": 3.1, "market_code": "total", "author_said": "Over/Under 3.5 goals: under 3.5 at 1.72", "quote": null, "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": "Won", "final_score": "0-2", "reason": "graded against the result: right", "reason_code": "not_checked", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-24T13:15:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-24T13:21:16.623Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": "price disputed: the quote does not give the author's price 1.72; returns at the author's price leave it out", "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-e7aab9bda62ebff4f8879db7", "quote_text": "My secondary prediction targets under 3.5 goals. While a high-scoring Chelsea side often attracts over money, Tottenham lacks the requisite firepower to push this total past three goals. Four of the last five head-to-head meetings between these clubs stayed under the 3.5-goal threshold.\n\nKalshi currently prices the “No” on over 3.5 goals at 58 cents. This implies odds of roughly -138, which presents much better value than traditional sportsbooks, which have the under juiced to -164.", "fragment_from": 3896, "fragment_to": 4383, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "rss", "url": "https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/soccer/tottenham-vs-chelsea-expert-picks-goalscorer-predictions-oct-24/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Juan Pablo Aravena", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "62c7934661ae2724be1077d664cb37e741a57defec46a79bc1ac8921e0154838", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-24T13:15:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-24T13:21:16.623Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "priced", "status": "ambiguous", "cause": "", "cause_code": "not_checked", "event": { "event_id": "s-75e81bac336b", "display_name": "Chelsea — Tottenham Hotspur", "competition_name": "Premier League", "starts_at": "2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/chelsea-vs-tottenham-hotspur-2026-10-24/", "scoreline": "0-2", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "Over/Under 3.5 goals", "outcome_label": "under 3.5", "odds_set": { "by_author": "1.72", "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": "win", "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-24T13:15:00.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-10-24T13:15:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-24T13:21:16.623Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Over/Under 3.5 goals", "choice": "under 3.5", "author_odds": "1.72", "market_key": "total", "choice_key": "under", "period": "match", "line": "3.5", "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Over/Under 3.5 goals: under 3.5 at 1.72" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "win", "scoreline": "0-2", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Won: the final score was Chelsea 0-2 Tottenham Hotspur." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "f71ec9077abfa7db81a8027c8bd81a209346b5a333282d710769dbe11fc7cc1d", "series_key": "author_price", "series_label": "At the author's stated price", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Over/Under 3.5 goals", "choice": "under 3.5", "decimal_odds": null, "odds_role": null, "stake_hundredths": null, "status": "skipped", "status_text": "Not executed: ", "result": null, "result_words": null, "change_hundredths": null, "executed_at": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false }, { "operation_id": "6e137a3fade0cff161a6ef8e1bd88a6997b730d0def8b1c730b284e67f12d5c5", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Over/Under 3.5 goals", "choice": "under 3.5", "decimal_odds": null, "odds_role": null, "stake_hundredths": null, "status": "skipped", "status_text": "Not executed: ", "result": null, "result_words": null, "change_hundredths": null, "executed_at": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": { "material_author": "Juan Pablo Aravena", "publisher": "sportsbettingdime.com", "forecaster": "Juan Pablo Aravena", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/soccer/tottenham-vs-chelsea-expert-picks-goalscorer-predictions-oct-24/", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null, "choice_words": "under 3.5 (Over/Under 3.5 goals)" } } ], "pagination": { "per_page": 20, "total": 51, "pages": 4, "page_urls": [ "/authors/juan-pablo-aravena/", "/authors/juan-pablo-aravena/picks/2/", "/authors/juan-pablo-aravena/picks/3/", "/authors/juan-pablo-aravena/picks/4/" ], "groups": { "settled": 12, "pending": 2, "excluded": 37 }, "continuation": "by_time", "page": 3, "first": 21, "last": 40, "author_url": "/authors/juan-pablo-aravena/", "current": false }, "entity_id": "history:/authors/juan-pablo-aravena/picks/3/", "source_revision": 17 }