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 "heading": "Joe Cole: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "15 settled picks by Joe Cole archived before kick-off across 9 matches, 15 Jan 2025 – 14 Apr 2025: +39.8% reconstructed at archived prices.",
 "first_paragraph": {
  "body": "Forecast Record restored 15 settled archived picks by Joe Cole from copies archived before kick-off, across 9 matches between 15 January and 14 April 2025. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned +39.8% on the total staked. Of the 178 predictions we hold for Joe Cole, 61 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 117 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
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  "data": "2026-11-07",
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   "url": "/authors/joe-cole/picks/9/#pick-n-1ad0496d5c44cc6c4542599f",
   "quote_text": "It will have to be a low-scoring game if Everton are to win so I’m going 1-0 to the home team.",
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   },
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    "in_words": "Did not match: the final score was Everton 3-2 Tottenham Hotspur."
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    "material_url": "https://news.paddypower.com/football/2025/01/19/free-football-tips-everton-totenham-spurs-tips-joe-cole-bet-builder-premier-league-sunday-19-january/",
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   "quote_text": "Chelsea to win",
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
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   "funnel_stage": "prediction",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-27be71df8f948751de915554",
   "url": "/authors/joe-cole/picks/9/#pick-n-27be71df8f948751de915554",
   "quote_text": "I see this one ending 3-1 to the home side.",
   "fragment_from": 1772,
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   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250120180336id_/https://news.paddypower.com/football/2025/01/20/chelsea-wolves-tips-joe-cole-9-1-bet-builder-premier-league-monday-20-january/",
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    "speaker": "Joe Cole",
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    "display_name": "Chelsea v Wolverhampton Wanderers",
    "competition_name": "Premier League",
    "starts_at": "2025-01-20T20:00:00.000Z",
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    "scoreline": "3-1"
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   "outcome_label": "Chelsea 3-1 Wolverhampton Wanderers",
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   "added_on": "Added to our record on 30 Sep 2026",
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    "choice": "Chelsea 3-1 Wolverhampton Wanderers",
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    "in_words": "Correct score: Chelsea 3-1 Wolverhampton Wanderers"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "data_status": "measured",
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    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "in_words": "Matched: the final score was Chelsea 3-1 Wolverhampton Wanderers."
   },
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     "derived": true,
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     "choice": "Chelsea",
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   "authorship": {
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    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
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    "material_url": "https://news.paddypower.com/football/2025/01/20/chelsea-wolves-tips-joe-cole-9-1-bet-builder-premier-league-monday-20-january/",
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   "observation_id": "n-a9b943ff9f0476139184924a",
   "url": "/authors/joe-cole/picks/9/#pick-n-a9b943ff9f0476139184924a",
   "quote_text": "Liverpool to win",
   "fragment_from": 781,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250121181309id_/https://news.paddypower.com/football/2025/01/21/liverpool-v-lille-tips-nunezs-firing-in-joe-coles-7-1-bet-builder-champions-league-january-21/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Joe Cole",
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    "bundle_id": "7bdc94b827d58a51d1a21f2db8da6fbaa1cef3dcf5446b9649107fe8e38f4771",
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   },
   "published_at": "2025-01-21T15:58:49.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:43:54.028Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "unpriced",
   "status": "too_late",
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   "cause_code": "too_late",
   "event": null,
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   },
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
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    "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:43:54.028Z",
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   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
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   "funnel_stage": "prediction",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-f0ee9d17d6fa4e39f60972b1",
   "url": "/authors/joe-cole/picks/9/#pick-n-f0ee9d17d6fa4e39f60972b1",
   "quote_text": "Arsenal (-2)",
   "fragment_from": 906,
   "fragment_to": 918,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250122191424id_/https://news.paddypower.com/football/2025/01/22/arsenal-v-dinamo-zagreb-tips-odegaard-gunners-joe-cole-5-1-bet-builder/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Joe Cole",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
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    "bundle_id": "51d38207b12c3d8a82631f5e56a30d87cba03f74f2ce572a22c6ca3004bdcaf5",
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   },
   "published_at": "2025-01-22T16:30:14.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:40:46.507Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "unpriced",
   "status": "not_supported",
   "cause": "",
   "cause_code": "not_supported",
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
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   "odds_set": {
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    "our_snapshot": null,
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   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "dates": {
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    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2025-01-22T16:30:14.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:40:46.507Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
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    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
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   "funnel_stage": "prediction",
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  }
 ],
 "excluded_from_feed": {
  "ads": 5,
  "service": 11,
  "ruleset_version": "3"
 },
 "standing": null,
 "retro": {
  "restored_total": 42,
  "of_them_archived_pre_match": 15,
  "found_post_match": 27,
  "of_them_source_reported": 0,
  "live_count": 0,
  "date_count": 19,
  "span_from": "2025-01-04",
  "span_to": "2026-01-13",
  "line_text": "restored history: 42, of which pre-match archive 15",
  "body": "We re-read what this author published before Premier League, League Cup, Champions League and Europa League matches between 4 January 2025 and 13 January 2026 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 42. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 15. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 27. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.",
  "precision": {
   "n": 40,
   "share": "0.475"
  },
  "series_list": [
   {
    "code_name": "retro_author_price",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
    "n": 0,
    "roi": null,
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": "no restored pick with this price"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price",
    "n": 11,
    "roi": "32.2591",
    "ci_low": "-49.7409",
    "ci_high": "122.8955",
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "n": 40,
    "roi": "13.0500",
    "ci_low": "-36.2895",
    "ci_high": "73.2051",
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_derived_sm",
    "display_name": "Restored score forecast: result implied by the score, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "n": 20,
    "roi": "-8.7250",
    "ci_low": "-46.7000",
    "ci_high": "28.4500",
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   }
  ],
  "clv": {
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above"
  },
  "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
  "leagues": [
   "Premier League",
   "League Cup",
   "Champions League",
   "Europa League"
  ],
  "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 29 settled restored picks and forecasts, and the two agree; 30 come from one provider only. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged.",
  "score_accuracy": {
   "n": 20,
   "share": "0.1"
  }
 },
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": null,
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "news.paddypower.com",
   "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250111194842id_/https://news.paddypower.com/football/2025/01/04/spurs-newcastle-tips-joe-cole-19-1-bet-builder-premier-league-saturday-january-4/"
  },
  "observed_from": "2026-09-29",
  "observed_to": "2026-09-30",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
  "series": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
  "restored": true,
  "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
  "headline_part": "archived",
  "settled_picks": 15,
  "matches": 9,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": 59750,
  "staked_hundredths": 150000,
  "return_percent": "39.83",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2025-01-15",
  "period_to": "2025-04-14",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "retro-1.1",
  "short_history": true,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record restored 15 settled archived picks by Joe Cole from copies archived before kick-off, across 9 matches between 15 January and 14 April 2025. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned +39.8% on the total staked. Of the 178 predictions we hold for Joe Cole, 61 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 117 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled archived picks",
    "value": "15",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "9",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "+597.50 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "value": "+39.8%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": null
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [
   "Most of this history was found after the matches. Of the 42 selections in this historical price series, 15 have a pre-match archive copy and 27 were first found after the match.",
   "Reconstructed at archived prices: these picks were restored from copies of the author’s pages that an independent web archive saved before kick-off, at the last pre-match archive prices, bookmaker margin included."
  ],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [
   {
    "date": "2025-01-15",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 11100,
    "n": 2
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-01-19",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 1100,
    "n": 3
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-01-26",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 11100,
    "n": 5
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-02-14",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -8900,
    "n": 7
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-02-23",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -29800,
    "n": 11
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-04-02",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -25000,
    "n": 12
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-04-07",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 69750,
    "n": 14
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-04-14",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 59750,
    "n": 15
   }
  ],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": null,
   "archived": {
    "part": "archived",
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. These picks were restored from copies an independent web archive saved before kick-off; the line shows how they settled at archived prices.",
    "settled_picks": 15,
    "matches": 9,
    "match_dates": 8,
    "period_from": "2025-01-15",
    "period_to": "2025-04-14",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": 59750,
    "low": {
     "date": "2025-02-23",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -29800,
     "after_picks": 11
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2025-04-07",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 69750,
     "after_picks": 14
    },
    "line_drawn": true,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2025-01-15",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 11100,
      "n": 2,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-01-19",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 1100,
      "n": 3,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-01-26",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 11100,
      "n": 5,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-02-14",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -8900,
      "n": 7,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-02-23",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -29800,
      "n": 11,
      "picks": 4
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-04-02",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -25000,
      "n": 12,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-04-07",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 69750,
      "n": 14,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-04-14",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 59750,
      "n": 15,
      "picks": 1
     }
    ]
   }
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record restored 15 settled archived picks by Joe Cole from copies archived before kick-off, across 9 matches between 15 January and 14 April 2025. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned +39.8% on the total staked. Of the 178 predictions we hold for Joe Cole, 61 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 117 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/joe-cole/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "retro-1.1"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 178,
   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 0,
   "proven_predictions": 61,
   "proven_checked": 20,
   "proven_measured": 20,
   "proven_dates": 12,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 61,
     "checked": 20,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 15,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 9,
      "net_points_hundredths": 59750,
      "staked_hundredths": 150000,
      "return_percent": "39.83",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2025-01-15",
      "period_to": "2025-04-14",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Closing price, aggregator",
       "series_code": "retro_market_closing",
       "picks": 4,
       "return_main_percent": "-15.25",
       "return_other_percent": "-16.16",
       "settled_excluding_void": 4,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -6100,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -6465,
       "period_from": "2025-02-14",
       "period_to": "2025-04-02"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 5,
      "exact_hits": 1,
      "exact_rate": 20.0,
      "outcome_checked": 5,
      "outcome_hits": 2,
      "outcome_rate": 40.0,
      "baseline_matches": 5,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 5,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 2,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": 40.0,
      "favourite_hits": 4,
      "favourite_rate": 80.0,
      "price_basis": "last pre-match archive price",
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": [
       "Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.",
       "1 of 5 score forecasts named the exact score.",
       "The result implied by the named score was right in 2 of 5 matches; the market favourite was right in 4 of the same 5 matches.",
       "The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off).",
       "The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win)."
      ]
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 20,
      "priced": 15
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 15,
      "won": 7,
      "won_percent": "46.7",
      "implied_percent": "44.9",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 2,
        "picks": 6,
        "implied_percent": "58.2"
       },
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 4,
        "picks": 6,
        "implied_percent": "46.7"
       },
       {
        "market": "Correct score",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 2,
        "implied_percent": "10.5"
       },
       {
        "market": "Result and both teams to score",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "23.1"
       }
      ]
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 117,
     "checked": 39,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 27,
      "void": 2,
      "matches": 19,
      "net_points_hundredths": -7550,
      "staked_hundredths": 250000,
      "return_percent": "-3.02",
      "interval_low": "-46.95",
      "interval_high": "37.88",
      "interval_note": null,
      "period_from": "2025-01-04",
      "period_to": "2026-01-13",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Closing price, aggregator",
       "series_code": "retro_market_closing",
       "picks": 7,
       "return_main_percent": "57.57",
       "return_other_percent": "59.93",
       "settled_excluding_void": 7,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 40300,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 41950,
       "period_from": "2025-02-16",
       "period_to": "2025-05-18"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 12,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": 0.0,
      "outcome_checked": 12,
      "outcome_hits": 6,
      "outcome_rate": 50.0,
      "baseline_matches": 12,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 12,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 6,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": 50.0,
      "favourite_hits": 8,
      "favourite_rate": 66.7,
      "price_basis": "last pre-match archive price",
      "pending": 1,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": [
       "Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.",
       "0 of 12 score forecasts named the exact score (0.0%).",
       "The result implied by the named score was right in 6 of 12 matches; the market favourite was right in 8 of the same 12 matches.",
       "The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off).",
       "The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win).",
       "These forecasts were found after the match; when they were made depends on the date the source gives."
      ]
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 39,
      "priced": 27
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 25,
      "won": 12,
      "won_percent": "48.0",
      "implied_percent": "48.7",
      "left_out": 2,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 7,
        "picks": 12,
        "implied_percent": "48.1"
       },
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 2,
        "picks": 6,
        "implied_percent": "63.2"
       },
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 2,
        "picks": 3,
        "implied_percent": "54.0"
       },
       {
        "market": "Correct score",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 2,
        "implied_percent": "11.4"
       },
       {
        "market": "Asian handicap",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "13.5"
       },
       {
        "market": "European handicap",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "62.5"
       }
      ]
     }
    }
   ]
  },
  "live_alongside": null,
  "headline_record_ids": [
   "n-1ad0496d5c44cc6c4542599f",
   "n-22c46befcdf1fe62eaa5e539",
   "n-25331c497106703d23045705",
   "n-2a94657afc5b2990196c6105",
   "n-32437b62a42b581c6bc411e7",
   "n-4a70f06896492ba3b4e05a03",
   "n-59d5a6a9decca70fb0f5d3d0",
   "n-59f26e23dac782f91587b495",
   "n-7068fac5427f4c40ececc3f1",
   "n-7cc2c340cc14919ddbdd98d0",
   "n-9581c91370ebad6d56f7e8cc",
   "n-bb6fca100b2037dfd144b17e",
   "n-cc9544ad28f838b018d8997a",
   "n-dcaa296b36fefb9d505e7e3b",
   "n-fdfbf4ea7d4075a67f8c01f0"
  ],
  "interval_low": null,
  "interval_high": null,
  "caption": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) · 100 points per pick · 15 January – 14 April 2025 · Calculated · picks settled under reconstruction method 1.1",
  "record_from": "2025-01-04",
  "record_to": "2026-01-13"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
  {
   "record_id": "n-c5043d0def5aaa0e5979d6dc",
   "url": null,
   "match": "Newcastle United v Manchester City",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2026-01-13T20:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "EFL Cup (Carabao)",
   "lead_hours": -6235.0,
   "market_code": "both_teams_score",
   "author_said": "Both teams to score: yes",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "0-2",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": "1.4400",
   "published_at": "2026-01-13T08:49:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:01:52.042Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-3e80197b9ecd84aeb950d318",
   "url": "/authors/joe-cole/picks/2/#pick-n-3e80197b9ecd84aeb950d318",
   "match": "Everton v Southampton",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-05-18T11:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": -11965.9,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: Everton",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Won",
   "claim_outcome": "Won",
   "final_score": "2-0",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": 4100,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": "1.4100",
   "published_at": "2025-05-18T10:14:40.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-29T00:55:43.176Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-3e80197b9ecd84aeb950d318",
    "quote_text": "I can only see an Everton victory.",
    "fragment_from": 2061,
    "fragment_to": 2095,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "website",
     "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250520225606id_/https://news.paddypower.com/football/2025/05/18/everton-southampton-premier-league-betting-tips-sunday/",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Joe Cole",
     "authorship": "channel_owner",
     "media_from_ms": null,
     "bundle_id": "9df913977ea3502f12f3f429eaeb4f04da3ff8d157c9bd60e02611248085cc98",
     "material_removed": false
    },
    "published_at": "2025-05-18T10:14:40.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-09-29T00:55:43.176Z",
    "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:00.060Z",
    "statement_class": "unpriced",
    "status": "too_late",
    "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
    "cause_code": null,
    "event": {
     "event_id": null,
     "display_name": "Everton v Southampton",
     "competition_name": "Premier League",
     "starts_at": "2025-05-18T11:00:00.000Z",
     "url": null,
     "scoreline": "2-0"
    },
    "market_label": "1X2, match result",
    "outcome_label": "Everton",
    "odds_set": {
     "by_author": null,
     "our_snapshot": null,
     "our_snapshot_at": null,
     "our_snapshot_source": null,
     "closing": "1.4000",
     "closing_source": "aggregator closing price"
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
    "result": "win",
    "simulation_change_hundredths": 4000,
    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
    "executed_by": "ours",
    "series_label": "Restored, at the closing market price",
    "withdrawn": false,
    "provenance": "found_post_match",
    "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "dates": {
     "fragment_at": "2025-05-18T10:14:40.000Z",
     "fragment_basis": "page",
     "source_page_at": "2025-05-18T10:14:40.000Z",
     "detected_at": "2026-09-29T00:55:43.176Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [],
     "flag_words": null,
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "source_stated_date",
    "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
    "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "added_on": null,
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "Everton",
     "author_odds": null,
     "market_key": "1x2",
     "choice_key": "1",
     "period": "match",
     "line": null,
     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "1X2, match result: Everton"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
     "result": "win",
     "scoreline": "2-0",
     "data_status": "measured",
     "cause": null,
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
     "in_words": "Won: the final score was Everton 2-0 Southampton."
    },
    "settlements": [
     {
      "operation_id": "5989df13bcc50c0c19e018ab0ec79068887f8e58439502d98e5e379af72f0ce9",
      "series_key": "retro_market_closing",
      "series_label": "Restored, at the closing market price",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "1X2, match result",
      "choice": "Everton",
      "decimal_odds": "1.4000",
      "odds_role": "closing_odds",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
      "status_text": "Executed",
      "result": "win",
      "result_words": "Won",
      "change_hundredths": 4000,
      "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:00.060Z",
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   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Liverpool to win\n\nBoth teams to score: Yes\n\nCody Gakpo to score anytime\n\nA Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 4/1 with Paddy Power.",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
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   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-01-08T16:43:51.000Z",
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   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
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   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-3b583f0a69f2eab34134b7ac",
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   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "with Gibbs-White to score or assist.",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
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   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:53:40.912Z",
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  {
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   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Fulham to win",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
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   "published_at": "2025-01-05T08:35:37.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:54:07.264Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
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   "record_id": "n-7284a436f99fbaf92a64fb40",
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   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Draw",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
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   "author_price": null,
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   "published_at": "2025-01-04T16:15:56.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:54:27.750Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
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   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
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   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
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   "competition": null,
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   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "There could be a red card in here for Spurs too.",
   "group": "excluded",
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   "points_hundredths": null,
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   "in_headline": false,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
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   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
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   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "and Alexander Isak to score.",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
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   "published_at": "2025-01-04T07:00:37.000Z",
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   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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   "attribution": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  }
 ],
 "lead_time": {
  "contract_version": 1,
  "threshold_hours": 2.0,
  "picks": 66,
  "before_kickoff": 0,
  "after_kickoff": 66,
  "at_least_2h": 0,
  "share_2h_plus": 0.0,
  "median_hours": null,
  "min_hours": null,
  "max_hours": null,
  "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off."
 },
 "baseline": {
  "contract_version": 1,
  "series_code": "market_price",
  "rule": "recorded-line-1.0",
  "state": "none",
  "picks": 0,
  "settled_picks_all": 0,
  "excluded": {
   "market_without_favourite": 0,
   "no_recorded_line": 0,
   "favourite_not_settled": 0
  },
  "staked_hundredths": 0,
  "author_net_hundredths": 0,
  "favourite_net_hundredths": 0,
  "difference_hundredths": 0,
  "author_return_percent": null,
  "favourite_return_percent": null,
  "author_hit_rate": null,
  "favourite_hit_rate": null,
  "picked_favourite_share": null,
  "by_market": [],
  "return_over_time": [],
  "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out."
 },
 "pagination": {
  "per_page": 20,
  "total": 178,
  "pages": 10,
  "page_urls": [
   "/authors/joe-cole/",
   "/authors/joe-cole/picks/2/",
   "/authors/joe-cole/picks/3/",
   "/authors/joe-cole/picks/4/",
   "/authors/joe-cole/picks/5/",
   "/authors/joe-cole/picks/6/",
   "/authors/joe-cole/picks/7/",
   "/authors/joe-cole/picks/8/",
   "/authors/joe-cole/picks/9/",
   "/authors/joe-cole/picks/10/"
  ],
  "groups": {
   "settled": 42,
   "pending": 0,
   "excluded": 136
  },
  "continuation": "by_time",
  "page": 1,
  "first": 1,
  "last": 20,
  "author_url": "/authors/joe-cole/",
  "current": false
 },
 "title_tag": "Joe Cole Predictions: Verified Record, Results and Sources",
 "calculator": null,
 "person": {
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  "type_code": "individual",
  "name_shown": "Joe Cole",
  "main_entity": "e-00e49adf35e33e81607c04ba",
  "identity": {
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  },
  "platform_list": [
   {
    "entity_ref": "e-00e49adf35e33e81607c04ba",
    "medium": "Paddy Power News",
    "channel": "section pages",
    "domain": "news.paddypower.com",
    "source_info": "paddy-power",
    "byline": "Joe Cole",
    "url": "/sources/paddy-power/",
    "summary": {
     "statements": 422,
     "predictions": 178,
     "settled_picks": 15,
     "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
     "return_percent": 39.83,
     "headline_part": "archived",
     "period_from": "2026-09-29",
     "period_to": "2026-09-30"
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   }
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  "trust_tier": "probation"
 },
 "data_revision": {
  "data_version": "2026-10-09.2",
  "updated": "2026-10-09",
  "current_release": "2026-11-07.2",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "method_version": "retro-1.1",
  "price_rule": "reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
  "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
  "sample": {
   "settled_picks": 15,
   "matches": 9,
   "void": 0,
   "period_from": "2025-01-15",
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 "number_changes": [
  {
   "id": "zc-a59bd1292707ec9ca4d3",
   "at": "2026-10-09T12:49:36.723Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-09.2",
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   "url": "/authors/joe-cole/",
   "category": "method_changed",
   "category_words": "Method changed",
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    "void": 2,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "second data provider's closing price, restored",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "4e99b40e03f248bc812e1595870c8144710073dc2507b9b07bbc8fa467cf4f59",
    "text": "+4.98% on 45 settled picks across 29 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-09.2",
    "return_percent": "39.83",
    "settled_picks": 15,
    "matches": 9,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
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    "composition_hash": "f5412291befa53d472085199544a8544b22eccdcddf94861af3b26cc8e545db0",
    "text": "+39.83% on 15 settled picks across 9 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "The headline rule changed on 9 October 2026: the headline is the live record at our recorded market price; without one, a historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only. Picks first found after the match no longer enter the headline number. Was: second data provider's closing price, restored (45 settled picks). Now: historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (15 settled picks).",
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   },
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   "url": "/authors/joe-cole/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
   "category_words": "Coverage extended",
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    "matches": 17,
    "void": 1,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "second data provider's closing price, restored",
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    "composition_hash": "e3273fe270f7bc391b739541fe8f9e0c25a7dd90e022d3c3a398693980cedcdd",
    "text": "+9.66% on 26 settled picks across 17 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
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    "return_percent": "4.98",
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    "matches": 29,
    "void": 2,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
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    "composition_hash": "4e99b40e03f248bc812e1595870c8144710073dc2507b9b07bbc8fa467cf4f59",
    "text": "+4.98% on 45 settled picks across 29 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Added 19 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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 "counts_by_slice": {
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    "title": "Archived before kick-off",
    "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
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    "total_check": true,
    "market_list": [
     {
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      "in_words": "Both teams to score",
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      "return_percent": "-39.4",
      "period_from": "2025-01-15",
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     },
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     },
     {
      "code_name": "correct_score_market",
      "in_words": "Correct score",
      "url": null,
      "settled_picks": 2,
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      "net_points_hundredths": 75700,
      "return_percent": "378.5",
      "period_from": "2025-01-19",
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      "small_sample": true,
      "average_odds": "9.48",
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     },
     {
      "code_name": "both_teams_score_and_result",
      "in_words": "Result and both teams to score",
      "url": null,
      "settled_picks": 1,
      "won": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "net_points_hundredths": -10000,
      "return_percent": "-100.0",
      "period_from": "2025-04-14",
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      "small_sample": true,
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    ],
    "leagues": [
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      "url": "/football/competitions/premier-league/",
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      "league_markets": [
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       },
       {
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        "void": 0,
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        "small_sample": true,
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       {
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       {
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 },
 "author_card": {
  "body": "Record tracked by Forecast Record since 29 September 2026 · 178 predictions · last change 30 September 2026",
  "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/joe-cole/",
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  "prediction_count": 178,
  "refreshed_at": "2026-09-30",
  "html": "<a href=\"https://forecastrecord.com/authors/joe-cole/\">Record tracked by Forecast Record since 29 September 2026 · 178 predictions · last change 30 September 2026</a>"
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 "trust": {
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  "weeks": 8,
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    "no_violations": true
   },
   "established": {
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 "colleagues": [
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   "authors": [
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     "small_sample": true,
     "average_odds": "1.75",
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    },
    {
     "name": "Matthew O'Regan",
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     "name": "Mark Lawrenson",
     "url": "/authors/mark-lawrenson/",
     "headline_part": "archived",
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     "return_percent": null,
     "small_sample": true,
     "average_odds": "1.44",
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    },
    {
     "name": "Sam Farley",
     "url": "/authors/sam-farley/",
     "headline_part": "archived",
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