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"outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": "Won", "final_score": "3-1", "reason": "graded against the result: right", "reason_code": "not_checked", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-09T00:18:07.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-11T01:49:34.654Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-969bd8e4816d361484fad0e3", "quote_text": "Goles totales\n\nMás 2,5\n\nSe han marcado más de 2,5 goles en 5 de los últimos 6 partidos del Crystal Palace.\n\nSe han marcado más de 2,5 goles en 2 de los últimos 4 partidos del Nottingham Forest.\n\nMejores cuotas en bet365", "fragment_from": 7203, "fragment_to": 7422, "quote_allowed": true, 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null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": "win", "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-09T00:18:07.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-10-09T00:18:07.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-11T01:49:34.654Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals", "choice": "over 2.5", "author_odds": null, "market_key": "total", "choice_key": "over", "period": "match", "line": "2.5", "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Over/Under 2.5 goals: over 2.5" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "win", "scoreline": "3-1", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Won: the final score was Crystal Palace 3-1 Nottingham Forest." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "f2ef26f8185e44b24c461c09e3484223b0e1c9356a3a0dcbfe71377b870ccd17", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals", "choice": "over 2.5", "decimal_odds": null, "odds_role": null, "stake_hundredths": null, "status": "skipped", "status_text": "Not executed: ", "result": null, "result_words": null, "change_hundredths": null, "executed_at": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": { "material_author": "Javier Ortega", "publisher": "AS Apuestas — «Pronósticos»", "forecaster": "Javier Ortega", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://as.com/apuestas/pronosticos/crystal-palace-vs-nottingham-forest-pronostico-11-10-2026/", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null, "choice_words": "over 2.5 (Over/Under 2.5 goals)" } }, { "record_id": "n-a266b489e642c1b115bd281f", "url": "/authors/javier-ortega/picks/2/#pick-n-a266b489e642c1b115bd281f", "match": "Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest", "match_url": "/football/matches/crystal-palace-vs-nottingham-forest-2026-10-11/", "kickoff": "2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z", "competition": "Premier League", "lead_hours": 11.2, "market_code": "total", "author_said": "Over/Under 3.5 goals: over 3.5", "quote": null, "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": "Won", "final_score": "3-1", "reason": "graded against the result: right", "reason_code": "not_checked", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-09T00:18:07.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-11T01:49:34.654Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-a266b489e642c1b115bd281f", "quote_text": "Goles totales\n\nMás 3,5\n\nSe han marcado más de 3,5 goles en 4 de los últimos 6 partidos del Crystal Palace.\n\nSe han marcado más de 3,5 goles en 1 de los últimos 4 partidos del Nottingham Forest.\n\nMejores cuotas en bet365", "fragment_from": 6982, "fragment_to": 7201, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://as.com/apuestas/pronosticos/crystal-palace-vs-nottingham-forest-pronostico-11-10-2026/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Javier Ortega", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "278cfb5b3d081ceda838790f96a16ecd263d2393786d8ad09702f84aaeacfe12", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-09T00:18:07.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-11T01:49:34.654Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "unpriced", "status": "ambiguous", "cause": "", "cause_code": "not_checked", "event": { "event_id": "s-83453d98f561", "display_name": "Crystal Palace — Nottingham Forest", "competition_name": "Premier League", "starts_at": "2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/crystal-palace-vs-nottingham-forest-2026-10-11/", "scoreline": "3-1", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "Over/Under 3.5 goals", "outcome_label": "over 3.5", "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": "win", "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-09T00:18:07.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-10-09T00:18:07.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-11T01:49:34.654Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Over/Under 3.5 goals", "choice": "over 3.5", "author_odds": null, "market_key": "total", "choice_key": "over", "period": "match", "line": "3.5", "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Over/Under 3.5 goals: over 3.5" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "win", "scoreline": "3-1", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Won: the final score was Crystal Palace 3-1 Nottingham Forest." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "e7ff71f3efe3b9492b87d0a0033c3a50bbf2dc6c5cb6e34f95536a893cf0ef45", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Over/Under 3.5 goals", "choice": "over 3.5", "decimal_odds": null, "odds_role": null, "stake_hundredths": null, "status": "skipped", "status_text": "Not executed: ", "result": null, "result_words": null, "change_hundredths": null, "executed_at": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": { "material_author": "Javier Ortega", "publisher": "AS Apuestas — «Pronósticos»", "forecaster": "Javier Ortega", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://as.com/apuestas/pronosticos/crystal-palace-vs-nottingham-forest-pronostico-11-10-2026/", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null, "choice_words": "over 3.5 (Over/Under 3.5 goals)" } }, { "record_id": "n-b825d9efbc56cb56112f61e0", "url": "/authors/javier-ortega/picks/2/#pick-n-b825d9efbc56cb56112f61e0", "match": "Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest", "match_url": "/football/matches/crystal-palace-vs-nottingham-forest-2026-10-11/", "kickoff": "2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z", "competition": "Premier League", "lead_hours": 11.2, "market_code": "double_chance", "author_said": "Double chance: Crystal Palace or draw", "quote": null, "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": "Won", "final_score": "3-1", "reason": "graded against the result: right", "reason_code": "not_checked", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-09T00:18:07.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-11T01:49:34.654Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-b825d9efbc56cb56112f61e0", "quote_text": "Doble oportunidad\n\n1X\n\nEl Crystal Palace ha ganado o empatado 4 de sus últimos 6 partidos.\n\nEl Nottingham Forest ha empatado o perdido 3 de sus últimos 4 partidos.\n\nMejores cuotas en bet365", "fragment_from": 7424, "fragment_to": 7613, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { 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The line now matches the source and" }, "choice_words": "under 2.5 (Over/Under 2.5 goals)" } }, { "record_id": "n-f02ec650925b0cb6fc407d31", "url": "/authors/javier-ortega/picks/2/#pick-n-f02ec650925b0cb6fc407d31", "match": "Hull City v Everton", "match_url": "/football/matches/hull-city-vs-everton-2026-10-11/", "kickoff": "2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z", "competition": "Premier League", "lead_hours": 11.2, "market_code": "total", "author_said": "Over/Under 1.5 goals: under 1.5", "quote": null, "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": "Lost", "final_score": "2-2", "reason": "graded against the result: wrong", "reason_code": "not_checked", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-09T00:18:08.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-11T01:49:35.027Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": { "at": "2026-10-14T02:01:02.858Z", "field": "line sign", "reason": "Data corrected: line sign. 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The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and the outcome is worked out on it. This pick was never executed, so no number changes." } ], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": { "material_author": "Javier Ortega", "publisher": "AS Apuestas — «Pronósticos»", "forecaster": "Javier Ortega", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://as.com/apuestas/pronosticos/hull-city-vs-everton-fc-pronostico-11-10-2026/", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": { "at": "2026-10-14T02:01:02.858Z", "field": "line sign", "reason": "Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and the outcome is worked out on it. This pick was never executed, so no number changes.", "version": 2, "url": "/corrections/#c-f1b2048399e9", "text": "Corrected on 14 October 2026: Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and" }, "choice_words": "under 1.5 (Over/Under 1.5 goals)" } }, { "record_id": "n-076537f9cfb0b5a834d01149", "url": "/authors/javier-ortega/picks/2/#pick-n-076537f9cfb0b5a834d01149", "match": "Liverpool v Manchester City", "match_url": "/football/matches/liverpool-vs-manchester-city-2026-10-11/", "kickoff": "2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z", "competition": "Premier League", "lead_hours": 13.7, "market_code": "1x2", "author_said": "1X2, match result: Manchester City at 2.3", "quote": null, "group": "settled", "outcome": "Won", "claim_outcome": "Won", "final_score": "0-3", "reason": null, "reason_code": null, "points_hundredths": 12500, "series_code": "market_price", "series_short": "odds snapshot", "author_price": "2.3", "settled_price": "2.2500", "published_at": "2026-10-09T00:18:14.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-11T01:49:35.291Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": true, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": { "outcome": "2", "price": "2.2500", "result": "Won", "points_hundredths": 12500, "picked_favourite": true }, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-076537f9cfb0b5a834d01149", "quote_text": "Nuestra predicción apunta al triunfo de City a cuota aproximada 2.30", "fragment_from": 596, "fragment_to": 664, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://as.com/apuestas/pronosticos/liverpool-fc-vs-manchester-city-pronostico-11-10-2026/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Javier Ortega", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "f1d862cf6c7137fa4fdea5604821a15e8eeecd0fe4811c028f4d5f183ca5c22f", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-09T00:18:14.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-11T01:49:35.291Z", "executed_at": "2026-10-11T01:56:17.815Z", "statement_class": "priced", "status": "recognised", 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