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 "heading": "James Mason: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "14 settled picks by James Mason archived before kick-off across 8 matches, 1 Sep 2024 – 19 Apr 2026: +16.1% reconstructed at archived prices.",
 "first_paragraph": {
  "body": "Forecast Record restored 14 settled archived picks by James Mason from copies archived before kick-off, across 8 matches between 1 September 2024 and 19 April 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned +16.1% on the total staked. Of the 40 predictions we hold for James Mason, 28 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 12 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
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  "data": "2026-11-07",
  "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot",
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  "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.",
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   "quote_text": "Sign up with Sky Bet to bet on Aston Villa vs Maccabi Tel-Aviv in the Europa League.",
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   "quote_text": "NEW CUSTOMER OFFER\n\n£50 In Free Acca Bets When You Place A £10 Acca (5+ legs)",
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   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "observation_id": "n-3885e4ea8707482248c856e1",
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   "source_info": {
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   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": "2025-09-26T15:15:00.000Z",
    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2025-09-26T15:15:00.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-09-28T16:18:56.691Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-e60d79e89e1069725a562ff6",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-e60d79e89e1069725a562ff6",
   "quote_text": "♦ Sunderland have failed to score in their two away fixtures this season",
   "fragment_from": 5646,
   "fragment_to": 5718,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/nottingham-forest-vs-sunderland-predictions-team-news-betting-tips-odds-and-bet-builder-aHa4m4F0ybXE/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "James Mason",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "241804c96f4d89c7f8b7c4c1993bd03cd23c0fc25a5a2b457520e10b8e4185cc",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": "2025-09-26T15:15:00.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-09-28T16:18:56.691Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
   "cause": null,
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": null,
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": "2025-09-26T15:15:00.000Z",
    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2025-09-26T15:15:00.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-09-28T16:18:56.691Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  }
 ],
 "excluded_from_feed": {
  "ads": 6,
  "service": 0,
  "ruleset_version": "3"
 },
 "standing": null,
 "retro": {
  "restored_total": 21,
  "of_them_archived_pre_match": 14,
  "found_post_match": 7,
  "of_them_source_reported": 0,
  "live_count": 0,
  "date_count": 9,
  "span_from": "2024-09-01",
  "span_to": "2026-04-19",
  "line_text": "restored history: 21, of which pre-match archive 14",
  "body": "We re-read what this author published before Premier League, Championship and Europa League matches between 1 September 2024 and 19 April 2026 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 21. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 14. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 7. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.",
  "precision": {
   "n": 21,
   "share": "0.4286"
  },
  "series_list": [
   {
    "code_name": "retro_author_price",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
    "n": 15,
    "roi": "43.3333",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price",
    "n": 6,
    "roi": "-0.9567",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "n": 19,
    "roi": "47.7368",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_derived_sm",
    "display_name": "Restored score forecast: result implied by the score, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "n": 1,
    "roi": "-100.0000",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   }
  ],
  "clv": {
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above"
  },
  "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
  "leagues": [
   "Premier League",
   "Championship",
   "Europa League"
  ],
  "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 10 settled restored picks and forecasts, and the two agree; 11 come from one provider only. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged.",
  "score_accuracy": {
   "n": 1,
   "share": "0.0"
  }
 },
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "threshold_percent": "5",
  "rows": [
   {
    "basis": "closing",
    "basis_words": "the closing market price of the same selection (restored history)",
    "basis_short": "Closing market price (restored)",
    "compared": 3,
    "above": 0,
    "above_share_percent": "0.0",
    "below": 0,
    "within": 3,
    "median_difference_percent": "1.6",
    "not_comparable": 0,
    "disputed": 0,
    "status": "calculated",
    "sentence": "The author's stated price against the closing price of the same selection: median +1.6% over 3 picks. The price available to followers is the market price, shown separately."
   }
  ],
  "examples": [],
  "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way."
 },
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "racingpost.com",
   "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20251105192241id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/europa-league/aston-villa-vs-maccabi-tel-aviv-predictions-team-news-betting-tips-odds-and-bet-builder-a7Gsf7r5QBEI/"
  },
  "observed_from": "2026-09-28",
  "observed_to": "2026-10-17",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
  "series": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
  "restored": true,
  "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
  "headline_part": "archived",
  "settled_picks": 14,
  "matches": 8,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": 22550,
  "staked_hundredths": 140000,
  "return_percent": "16.11",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2024-09-01",
  "period_to": "2026-04-19",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "retro-1.1",
  "short_history": true,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record restored 14 settled archived picks by James Mason from copies archived before kick-off, across 8 matches between 1 September 2024 and 19 April 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned +16.1% on the total staked. Of the 40 predictions we hold for James Mason, 28 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 12 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled archived picks",
    "value": "14",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "8",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "+225.50 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "value": "+16.1%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": null
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [
   "This page combines James Mason across 2 platforms. The record above counts each prediction once, even when the same pick (match, market and selection) appeared on more than one platform; each platform keeps its own total under “Where James Mason publishes”.",
   "Reconstructed at archived prices: these picks were restored from copies of the author’s pages that an independent web archive saved before kick-off, at the last pre-match archive prices, bookmaker margin included."
  ],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [
   {
    "date": "2024-09-01",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000,
    "n": 1
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-02-22",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 500,
    "n": 2
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-08-24",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -11900,
    "n": 5
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-11-01",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -31900,
    "n": 7
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-11-06",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 21100,
    "n": 8
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-11-08",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 34200,
    "n": 9
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-01-29",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 42550,
    "n": 12
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-04-19",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 22550,
    "n": 14
   }
  ],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": null,
   "archived": {
    "part": "archived",
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. These picks were restored from copies an independent web archive saved before kick-off; the line shows how they settled at archived prices.",
    "settled_picks": 14,
    "matches": 8,
    "match_dates": 8,
    "period_from": "2024-09-01",
    "period_to": "2026-04-19",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": 22550,
    "low": {
     "date": "2025-11-01",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -31900,
     "after_picks": 7
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2026-01-29",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 42550,
     "after_picks": 12
    },
    "line_drawn": true,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2024-09-01",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000,
      "n": 1,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-02-22",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 500,
      "n": 2,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-08-24",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -11900,
      "n": 5,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-11-01",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -31900,
      "n": 7,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-11-06",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 21100,
      "n": 8,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-11-08",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 34200,
      "n": 9,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-01-29",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 42550,
      "n": 12,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-04-19",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 22550,
      "n": 14,
      "picks": 2
     }
    ]
   }
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record restored 14 settled archived picks by James Mason from copies archived before kick-off, across 8 matches between 1 September 2024 and 19 April 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned +16.1% on the total staked. Of the 40 predictions we hold for James Mason, 28 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 12 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/james-mason/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "retro-1.1"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 40,
   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 0,
   "proven_predictions": 28,
   "proven_checked": 16,
   "proven_measured": 14,
   "proven_dates": 9,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 28,
     "checked": 16,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 14,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 8,
      "net_points_hundredths": 22550,
      "staked_hundredths": 140000,
      "return_percent": "16.11",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2024-09-01",
      "period_to": "2026-04-19",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 10,
       "return_main_percent": "31.05",
       "return_other_percent": "35.00",
       "settled_excluding_void": 10,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 31050,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 35000,
       "period_from": "2024-09-01",
       "period_to": "2026-04-19"
      },
      {
       "price": "Closing price, aggregator",
       "series_code": "retro_market_closing",
       "picks": 5,
       "return_main_percent": "22.40",
       "return_other_percent": "22.28",
       "settled_excluding_void": 5,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 11200,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 11142,
       "period_from": "2025-02-22",
       "period_to": "2026-04-19"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 16,
      "priced": 14
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 14,
      "won": 6,
      "won_percent": "42.9",
      "implied_percent": "38.5",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Correct score",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 4,
        "implied_percent": "12.8"
       },
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 2,
        "picks": 4,
        "implied_percent": "45.3"
       },
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 2,
        "picks": 4,
        "implied_percent": "56.4"
       },
       {
        "market": "Result and both teams to score",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "40.9"
       },
       {
        "market": "Win to nil",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "40.0"
       }
      ]
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 12,
     "checked": 10,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 9,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 7,
      "net_points_hundredths": -21550,
      "staked_hundredths": 90000,
      "return_percent": "-23.94",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2024-08-06",
      "period_to": "2025-11-01",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 8,
       "return_main_percent": "-37.50",
       "return_other_percent": "-41.88",
       "settled_excluding_void": 8,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -30000,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -33500,
       "period_from": "2024-08-06",
       "period_to": "2025-11-01"
      },
      {
       "price": "Closing price, aggregator",
       "series_code": "retro_market_closing",
       "picks": 3,
       "return_main_percent": "-38.50",
       "return_other_percent": "-37.55",
       "settled_excluding_void": 3,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -11550,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -11266,
       "period_from": "2025-09-27",
       "period_to": "2025-11-01"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 10,
      "priced": 9
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 9,
      "won": 3,
      "won_percent": "33.3",
      "implied_percent": "39.8",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 4,
        "implied_percent": "43.8"
       },
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 2,
        "implied_percent": "53.3"
       },
       {
        "market": "Result and both teams to score",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 2,
        "implied_percent": "31.7"
       },
       {
        "market": "Correct score",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "12.7"
       }
      ]
     }
    }
   ]
  },
  "live_alongside": null,
  "headline_record_ids": [
   "n-238dbd6c54b5af62627fd293",
   "n-2d77a65ec9629035a7f15948",
   "n-2d9f491b18db15a8e825014b",
   "n-33fc1cf5db3566fc9d2a634b",
   "n-3885e4ea8707482248c856e1",
   "n-3a490cfee2b0ad73dcc265a5",
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   "n-ed05009ae97612973b4a8863"
  ],
  "interval_low": null,
  "interval_high": null,
  "caption": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) · 100 points per pick · 1 September 2024 – 19 April 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under reconstruction method 1.1",
  "record_from": "2024-08-06",
  "record_to": "2026-04-19"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
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   "author_said": "Over/Under 2.5 goals: under 2.5",
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    },
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
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   "correction": {
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   },
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    ],
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     "material_url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/nottingham-forest-vs-burnley-predictions-team-news-betting-tips-odds-and-bet-builder-abc7x5b2nl1G/",
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  },
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   "evidence": {
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    "source_info": {
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "platform": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
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   "url": null,
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   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
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   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-11-07T17:00:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:51:16.054Z",
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   "record_part": "archived",
   "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "platform": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
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   "url": null,
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   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Jadon Sancho to have 2+ shots on target",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-11-05T17:00:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-01T00:47:47.620Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
   "record_part": "archived",
   "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "platform": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
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   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Kristijan Belic to be booked",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-11-05T17:00:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-01T00:47:47.620Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
   "record_part": "archived",
   "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "platform": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
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   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Pays out at 9-2 with bet365",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-10-31T16:00:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T16:08:31.302Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
   "record_part": "archived",
   "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "platform": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-cdf5447227e21e28c16563d8",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Chris Wood 1+ shots on target",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-09-26T15:15:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:18:56.691Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "platform": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-c27a1a8261f72e0a10acdd81",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Nordi Mukiele to commit 1+ fouls",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-09-26T15:15:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:18:56.691Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "platform": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-77bd84ab8217f8347d6eb1b2",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Chris Wood anytime goalscorer",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-08-23T16:00:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T17:05:32.348Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
   "record_part": "archived",
   "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "platform": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-95d186becd6b7d3d78849290",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Jean-Philippe Mateta over 0.5 shots on target",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-08-23T16:00:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T17:05:32.348Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
   "record_part": "archived",
   "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "platform": null,
   "correction": null
  }
 ],
 "lead_time": {
  "contract_version": 1,
  "threshold_hours": 2.0,
  "picks": 28,
  "before_kickoff": 0,
  "after_kickoff": 28,
  "at_least_2h": 0,
  "share_2h_plus": 0.0,
  "median_hours": null,
  "min_hours": null,
  "max_hours": null,
  "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off."
 },
 "baseline": {
  "contract_version": 1,
  "series_code": "market_price",
  "rule": "recorded-line-1.0",
  "state": "none",
  "picks": 0,
  "settled_picks_all": 0,
  "excluded": {
   "market_without_favourite": 0,
   "no_recorded_line": 0,
   "favourite_not_settled": 0
  },
  "staked_hundredths": 0,
  "author_net_hundredths": 0,
  "favourite_net_hundredths": 0,
  "difference_hundredths": 0,
  "author_return_percent": null,
  "favourite_return_percent": null,
  "author_hit_rate": null,
  "favourite_hit_rate": null,
  "picked_favourite_share": null,
  "by_market": [],
  "return_over_time": [],
  "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out."
 },
 "pagination": {
  "per_page": 20,
  "total": 40,
  "pages": 3,
  "page_urls": [
   "/authors/james-mason/",
   "/authors/james-mason/picks/2/",
   "/authors/james-mason/picks/3/"
  ],
  "groups": {
   "settled": 26,
   "pending": 0,
   "excluded": 14
  },
  "continuation": "by_time",
  "page": 1,
  "first": 1,
  "last": 20,
  "author_url": "/authors/james-mason/",
  "current": false
 },
 "title_tag": "James Mason Predictions: Verified Record, Results and Sources",
 "calculator": null,
 "person": {
  "person_id": "o-625291d3010acdea0444fcf6",
  "type_code": "individual",
  "name_shown": "James Mason",
  "main_entity": "e-625291d3010acdea0444fcf6",
  "identity": {
   "status": "not_verified",
   "is_verified": false,
   "when": null,
   "source_list": []
  },
  "platform_list": [
   {
    "entity_ref": "e-625291d3010acdea0444fcf6",
    "medium": "Racing Post",
    "channel": "section pages",
    "domain": "racingpost.com",
    "source_info": "racing-post",
    "byline": "James Mason",
    "url": "/sources/racing-post/",
    "summary": {
     "statements": 105,
     "predictions": 34,
     "settled_picks": 14,
     "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
     "return_percent": 16.11,
     "headline_part": "archived",
     "period_from": "2026-09-28",
     "period_to": "2026-10-01"
    }
   },
   {
    "entity_ref": "e-c8df17dc62bea72e25b9514d",
    "medium": "LiveScore",
    "channel": "section pages",
    "domain": "livescore.com",
    "source_info": "livescore",
    "byline": "James Mason",
    "url": null,
    "summary": {
     "statements": 36,
     "predictions": 6,
     "settled_picks": 0,
     "headline_kind": null,
     "return_percent": null,
     "headline_part": null,
     "period_from": "2026-10-09",
     "period_to": "2026-10-17"
    }
   }
  ],
  "previously": [],
  "trust_tier": "probation"
 },
 "data_revision": {
  "data_version": "2026-10-16.5",
  "updated": "2026-10-16",
  "current_release": "2026-11-07.2",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "method_version": "retro-1.1",
  "price_rule": "reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
  "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
  "sample": {
   "settled_picks": 14,
   "matches": 8,
   "void": 0,
   "period_from": "2024-09-01",
   "period_to": "2026-04-19",
   "composition_hash": "cb98a84ee1b4d83ed8a58e596c8c2091ecf2e50df7e8762aae25e8776734ab26"
  },
  "changes_url": "#changes",
  "corrections_url": "/corrections/"
 },
 "number_changes": [
  {
   "id": "zc-5aa02388775b8dfe1859",
   "at": "2026-10-16T17:26:36.835Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-16.5",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-16.4",
   "url": "/authors/james-mason/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
   "category_words": "Coverage extended",
   "before": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-09.2",
    "return_percent": "9.27",
    "settled_picks": 13,
    "matches": 7,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "3a8c5422e1fc4cbfa5c6187cc4b9c49dfe64de75d09be00f17aa66991894b05d",
    "text": "+9.27% on 13 settled picks across 7 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-16.5",
    "return_percent": "16.11",
    "settled_picks": 14,
    "matches": 8,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "cb98a84ee1b4d83ed8a58e596c8c2091ecf2e50df7e8762aae25e8776734ab26",
    "text": "+16.11% on 14 settled picks across 8 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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    "removed": 0,
    "changed": 0
   },
   "correction_id": null
  },
  {
   "id": "zc-0f39f6fb03d4184affa7",
   "at": "2026-10-09T12:49:36.723Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-09.2",
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   "url": "/authors/james-mason/",
   "category": "method_changed",
   "category_words": "Method changed",
   "before": {
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    "return_percent": "61.57",
    "settled_picks": 15,
    "matches": 8,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "second data provider's closing price, restored",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "c4b52fe4bf365d6c5135c4cd305dd8fd07b853e1530c936d4d8c5905a64485c6",
    "text": "+61.57% on 15 settled picks across 8 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-09.2",
    "return_percent": "9.27",
    "settled_picks": 13,
    "matches": 7,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "3a8c5422e1fc4cbfa5c6187cc4b9c49dfe64de75d09be00f17aa66991894b05d",
    "text": "+9.27% on 13 settled picks across 7 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "The headline rule changed on 9 October 2026: the headline is the live record at our recorded market price; without one, a historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only. Picks first found after the match no longer enter the headline number. Was: second data provider's closing price, restored (15 settled picks). Now: historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (13 settled picks).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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    "removed": 6,
    "changed": 0
   },
   "correction_id": "i-85e600e4afbd5ab273d3"
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  {
   "id": "zc-3cc3df8a45e3a7674e89",
   "at": "2026-10-09T11:08:54.367Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-09.1",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-09-30.1",
   "url": "/authors/james-mason/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
   "category_words": "Coverage extended",
   "before": {
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    "return_percent": "63.05",
    "settled_picks": 11,
    "matches": 5,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "second data provider's closing price, restored",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "5c3a8712a0a03f548e940c1088f941dd06e2e2903b45566f5d55bff23aa45b6b",
    "text": "+63.05% on 11 settled picks across 5 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-09.1",
    "return_percent": "61.57",
    "settled_picks": 15,
    "matches": 8,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "second data provider's closing price, restored",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "c4b52fe4bf365d6c5135c4cd305dd8fd07b853e1530c936d4d8c5905a64485c6",
    "text": "+61.57% on 15 settled picks across 8 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Added 4 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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    "removed": 0,
    "changed": 0
   },
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  }
 ],
 "counts_by_slice": {
  "portions": [
   {
    "code": "archived",
    "title": "Archived before kick-off",
    "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "settled_picks": 14,
    "total_check": true,
    "market_list": [
     {
      "code_name": "correct_score_market",
      "in_words": "Correct score",
      "url": null,
      "settled_picks": 4,
      "won": 1,
      "void": 0,
      "net_points_hundredths": 23000,
      "return_percent": "57.5",
      "period_from": "2025-08-24",
      "period_to": "2026-01-29",
      "small_sample": true,
      "average_odds": "8.62",
      "odds_from_author": 3,
      "odds_from_snapshot": 1
     },
     {
      "code_name": "1x2",
      "in_words": "Match result",
      "url": null,
      "settled_picks": 4,
      "won": 2,
      "void": 0,
      "net_points_hundredths": 3600,
      "return_percent": "9.0",
      "period_from": "2025-02-22",
      "period_to": "2025-11-08",
      "small_sample": true,
      "average_odds": "2.26",
      "odds_from_author": 4,
      "odds_from_snapshot": 0
     },
     {
      "code_name": "total",
      "in_words": "Over/under goals",
      "url": null,
      "settled_picks": 4,
      "won": 2,
      "void": 0,
      "net_points_hundredths": -8500,
      "return_percent": "-21.2",
      "period_from": "2024-09-01",
      "period_to": "2026-04-19",
      "small_sample": true,
      "average_odds": "1.80",
      "odds_from_author": 1,
      "odds_from_snapshot": 3
     },
     {
      "code_name": "both_teams_score_and_result",
      "in_words": "Result and both teams to score",
      "url": null,
      "settled_picks": 1,
      "won": 1,
      "void": 0,
      "net_points_hundredths": 14450,
      "return_percent": "144.5",
      "period_from": "2026-01-29",
      "period_to": "2026-01-29",
      "small_sample": true,
      "average_odds": "2.80",
      "odds_from_author": 1,
      "odds_from_snapshot": 0
     },
     {
      "code_name": "win_to_nil",
      "in_words": "Win to nil",
      "url": null,
      "settled_picks": 1,
      "won": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "net_points_hundredths": -10000,
      "return_percent": "-100.0",
      "period_from": "2026-04-19",
      "period_to": "2026-04-19",
      "small_sample": true,
      "average_odds": "2.50",
      "odds_from_author": 1,
      "odds_from_snapshot": 0
     }
    ],
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