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"heading": "Jake Osgathorpe: Football Prediction Record",
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"body": "Forecast Record restored 24 settled archived picks by Jake Osgathorpe from copies archived before kick-off, across 22 matches between 17 August 2024 and 8 April 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned +29.3% on the total staked. Live record so far: won 3 of 5 settled live picks at our recorded market price. Of the 499 predictions we hold for Jake Osgathorpe, 375 are linked to matches: 45 were recorded by us before kick-off, 301 archived before kick-off by an independent web archive, 21 from the source’s own history and 8 first found after the match; 9 are excluded while the attribution is under review. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
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"anchor_id": "title-0ac95b12a931",
"event_at": "2026-10-24",
"url": "/titles/cs-10-exact-score-called/"
}
],
"record_origin": [
{
"portion": "live",
"n": 29,
"body": "29 recorded before kick-off · since 17 Oct 2026"
},
{
"portion": "archived",
"n": 186,
"body": "186 from the pre-match archive · 2024–2026"
}
],
"recent_record": [
{
"code_name": "CS-10",
"body": "Exact score 2–0 · Arsenal v Everton · 24 Oct 2026",
"event_at": "2026-10-24",
"url": null,
"provenance": "live",
"anchor_id": "title-0ac95b12a931"
}
],
"record_details": [
{
"code_name": "M-11",
"body": "Most recorded: Correct score · 139 matches",
"details_words": "Correct score 15/139 (139 matches); Goalscorer picks 7/29 (26 matches); Player props 1/10 (10 matches); Goals over/under 4/9 (8 matches); Bet-builder combos 3/7 (7 matches); Match result (1X2) 3/6 (6 matches); Double chance and draw no bet 3/5 (5 matches); Team goals and win to nil 5/6 (5 matches)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "live+archived",
"display_name": "Most recorded bet type",
"rule_href": "/titles/m-11-most-recorded-bet-type/"
},
{
"code_name": "CS-01",
"body": "Exact scores · 15/139",
"details_words": "before kick-off 1/16 · archive 14/123",
"url": null,
"provenance": "live+archived",
"display_name": "Exact scores",
"rule_href": "/titles/cs-01-exact-scores/"
},
{
"code_name": "C-01",
"body": "Minority calls · 0/6",
"details_words": "Result calls on matches with at least 8 other tipsters and sources, where at least 60.0% of them named another outcome.",
"url": null,
"provenance": "live",
"display_name": "Minority calls",
"rule_href": "/titles/c-01-minority-calls/"
},
{
"code_name": "X-01",
"body": "Longest price: correct at 4.20 · 14 Jan 2025",
"details_words": "Nottingham Forest v Liverpool · Draw at 4.20 (archive closing price) · from the predicted score: Correct score: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Liverpool",
"url": "/authors/jake-osgathorpe/picks/9/#pick-n-05834ead30cdd953dfe196fd",
"provenance": "archived",
"display_name": "Correct at a long price",
"rule_href": "/titles/x-01-correct-at-a-long-price/"
},
{
"code_name": "E-01",
"body": "Draw calls · 15/41",
"details_words": null,
"url": null,
"provenance": "live+archived",
"display_name": "Draw calls",
"rule_href": "/titles/e-01-draw-calls/"
},
{
"code_name": "E-03",
"body": "Away calls · 21/37",
"details_words": null,
"url": null,
"provenance": "live+archived",
"display_name": "Away calls",
"rule_href": "/titles/e-03-away-calls/"
},
{
"code_name": "E-06",
"body": "Non-favourite calls · 20/59",
"details_words": null,
"url": null,
"provenance": "live+archived",
"display_name": "Non-favourite calls",
"rule_href": "/titles/e-06-non-favourite-calls/"
},
{
"code_name": "E-13",
"body": "Most picked team: Aston Villa · 9/18",
"details_words": null,
"url": null,
"provenance": "live+archived",
"display_name": "Most picked team",
"rule_href": "/titles/e-13-most-picked-team/"
},
{
"code_name": "C-05",
"body": "Result calls: 67 correct · 63.8 implied by prices",
"details_words": "135 result calls with a pre-match price for the named outcome (margin included).",
"url": null,
"provenance": "live+archived",
"display_name": "Correct against prices implied",
"rule_href": "/titles/c-05-correct-against-prices-implied/"
}
],
"history": [
{
"code_name": "CS-10",
"body": "Exact score 2–0 · Aston Villa v Tottenham Hotspur · 16 May 2025 · archive record",
"event_at": "2025-05-16",
"status": "historical",
"cause": "90 days after the event",
"provenance": "archived"
},
{
"code_name": "CS-10",
"body": "Exact score 1–0 · Chelsea v Manchester United · 16 May 2025 · archive record",
"event_at": "2025-05-16",
"status": "historical",
"cause": "90 days after the event",
"provenance": "archived"
},
{
"code_name": "P-01",
"body": "4/5 result calls right · week of 21 Apr 2025 · archive record",
"event_at": "2025-04-27",
"status": "historical",
"cause": "120 days after the event",
"provenance": "archived"
},
{
"code_name": "CS-10",
"body": "Exact score 1–0 · Chelsea v Everton · 26 Apr 2025 · archive record",
"event_at": "2025-04-26",
"status": "historical",
"cause": "90 days after the event",
"provenance": "archived"
},
{
"code_name": "E-07",
"body": "Draw at 4.10 · Arsenal v Brentford · 12 Apr 2025 · archive record",
"event_at": "2025-04-12",
"status": "historical",
"cause": "90 days after the event",
"provenance": "archived"
},
{
"code_name": "E-07",
"body": "Draw at 4.00 · Manchester City v Brighton & Hove Albion · 15 Mar 2025 · archive record",
"event_at": "2025-03-15",
"status": "historical",
"cause": "90 days after the event",
"provenance": "archived"
},
{
"code_name": "CS-10",
"body": "Exact score 1–1 · Everton v West Ham United · 15 Mar 2025 · archive record",
"event_at": "2025-03-15",
"status": "historical",
"cause": "90 days after the event",
"provenance": "archived"
},
{
"code_name": "E-07",
"body": "Home win at 3.04 · Wolverhampton Wanderers v Aston Villa · 1 Feb 2025 · archive record",
"event_at": "2025-02-01",
"status": "historical",
"cause": "90 days after the event",
"provenance": "archived"
},
{
"code_name": "CS-10",
"body": "Exact score 1–1 · Nottingham Forest v Liverpool · 14 Jan 2025 · archive record",
"event_at": "2025-01-14",
"status": "historical",
"cause": "90 days after the event",
"provenance": "archived"
},
{
"code_name": "P-01",
"body": "4/5 result calls right · week of 16 Dec 2024 · archive record",
"event_at": "2024-12-22",
"status": "historical",
"cause": "120 days after the event",
"provenance": "archived"
},
{
"code_name": "CS-10",
"body": "Exact score 2–1 · Aston Villa v Manchester City · 21 Dec 2024 · archive record",
"event_at": "2024-12-21",
"status": "historical",
"cause": "90 days after the event",
"provenance": "archived"
},
{
"code_name": "CS-10",
"body": "Exact score 1–1 · West Ham United v Brighton & Hove Albion · 21 Dec 2024 · archive record",
"event_at": "2024-12-21",
"status": "historical",
"cause": "90 days after the event",
"provenance": "archived"
},
{
"code_name": "E-07",
"body": "Draw at 3.40 · Everton v Brentford · 23 Nov 2024 · archive record",
"event_at": "2024-11-23",
"status": "historical",
"cause": "90 days after the event",
"provenance": "archived"
},
{
"code_name": "CS-10",
"body": "Exact score 2–2 · Wolverhampton Wanderers v Crystal Palace · 2 Nov 2024 · archive record",
"event_at": "2024-11-02",
"status": "historical",
"cause": "90 days after the event",
"provenance": "archived"
},
{
"code_name": "CS-10",
"body": "Exact score 1–1 · Everton v Fulham · 26 Oct 2024 · archive record",
"event_at": "2024-10-26",
"status": "historical",
"cause": "90 days after the event",
"provenance": "archived"
},
{
"code_name": "CS-10",
"body": "Exact score 1–1 · Brentford v West Ham United · 28 Sep 2024 · archive record",
"event_at": "2024-09-28",
"status": "historical",
"cause": "90 days after the event",
"provenance": "archived"
},
{
"code_name": "E-07",
"body": "Draw at 3.73 · Brighton & Hove Albion v Nottingham Forest · 22 Sep 2024 · archive record",
"event_at": "2024-09-22",
"status": "historical",
"cause": "90 days after the event",
"provenance": "archived"
},
{
"code_name": "E-07",
"body": "Draw at 3.55 · Manchester City v Arsenal · 22 Sep 2024 · archive record",
"event_at": "2024-09-22",
"status": "historical",
"cause": "90 days after the event",
"provenance": "archived"
},
{
"code_name": "E-07",
"body": "Draw at 3.52 · Crystal Palace v Manchester United · 21 Sep 2024 · archive record",
"event_at": "2024-09-21",
"status": "historical",
"cause": "90 days after the event",
"provenance": "archived"
},
{
"code_name": "CS-10",
"body": "Exact score 3–1 · Aston Villa v Wolverhampton Wanderers · 21 Sep 2024 · archive record",
"event_at": "2024-09-21",
"status": "historical",
"cause": "90 days after the event",
"provenance": "archived"
},
{
"code_name": "CS-10",
"body": "Exact score 1–2 · Wolverhampton Wanderers v Newcastle United · 15 Sep 2024 · archive record",
"event_at": "2024-09-15",
"status": "historical",
"cause": "90 days after the event",
"provenance": "archived"
},
{
"code_name": "P-01",
"body": "6/7 result calls right · week of 26 Aug 2024 · archive record",
"event_at": "2024-09-01",
"status": "historical",
"cause": "120 days after the event",
"provenance": "archived"
},
{
"code_name": "P-07",
"body": "Aug 2024: 9 of 12 result calls right · prices implied 5.8 · archive record",
"event_at": "2024-08-31",
"status": "historical",
"cause": "180 days after the event",
"provenance": "archived"
},
{
"code_name": "E-07",
"body": "Draw at 3.40 · Ipswich Town v Fulham · 31 Aug 2024 · archive record",
"event_at": "2024-08-31",
"status": "historical",
"cause": "90 days after the event",
"provenance": "archived"
},
{
"code_name": "CS-10",
"body": "Exact score 1–2 · Leicester City v Aston Villa · 31 Aug 2024 · archive record",
"event_at": "2024-08-31",
"status": "historical",
"cause": "90 days after the event",
"provenance": "archived"
},
{
"code_name": "CS-10",
"body": "Exact score 1–1 · Nottingham Forest v Wolverhampton Wanderers · 31 Aug 2024 · archive record",
"event_at": "2024-08-31",
"status": "historical",
"cause": "90 days after the event",
"provenance": "archived"
}
]
},
"retro": {
"restored_total": 82,
"of_them_archived_pre_match": 63,
"found_post_match": 0,
"of_them_source_reported": 19,
"live_count": 5,
"date_count": 44,
"span_from": "2024-08-16",
"span_to": "2026-05-13",
"line_text": "restored history: 82, of which pre-match archive 63",
"body": "We re-read what this author published before Premier League, Champions League, Europa League, Conference League and UEFA Super Cup matches between 16 August 2024 and 13 May 2026 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 82. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 63. Taken from the source’s own published history, published before kick-off by the source’s own date: 19. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 0. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.",
"precision": {
"n": 81,
"share": "0.3704"
},
"series_list": [
{
"code_name": "retro_author_price",
"display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
"n": 61,
"roi": "-11.4197",
"ci_low": "-42.5115",
"ci_high": "23.2932",
"data_status": "calculated",
"methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
"cause": null
},
{
"code_name": "retro_market_closing",
"display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price",
"n": 5,
"roi": "-2.3080",
"ci_low": null,
"ci_high": null,
"data_status": "calculated",
"methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
"cause": null
},
{
"code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm",
"display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
"n": 42,
"roi": "19.8690",
"ci_low": "-19.5897",
"ci_high": "58.3333",
"data_status": "calculated",
"methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
"cause": null
},
{
"code_name": "retro_derived_sm",
"display_name": "Restored score forecast: result implied by the score, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
"n": 123,
"roi": "8.7846",
"ci_low": "-13.9756",
"ci_high": "31.5122",
"data_status": "calculated",
"methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
"cause": null
}
],
"clv": {
"data_status": "unknown",
"cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above"
},
"methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
"leagues": [
"Premier League",
"Champions League",
"Europa League",
"Conference League",
"UEFA Super Cup"
],
"source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 58 settled restored picks and forecasts, and the two agree; 147 come from one provider only. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged.",
"score_accuracy": {
"n": 123,
"share": "0.1138"
}
},
"late": null,
"price_vs_market": {
"contract_version": "1",
"threshold_percent": "5",
"rows": [
{
"basis": "snapshot",
"basis_words": "our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off)",
"basis_short": "Our market price when we first recorded the pick",
"compared": 5,
"above": 1,
"above_share_percent": "20.0",
"below": 0,
"within": 4,
"median_difference_percent": "2.3",
"not_comparable": 0,
"disputed": 0,
"status": "calculated"
},
{
"basis": "closing",
"basis_words": "the closing market price of the same selection (restored history)",
"basis_short": "Closing market price (restored)",
"compared": 5,
"above": 3,
"above_share_percent": "60.0",
"below": 1,
"within": 1,
"median_difference_percent": "9.3",
"not_comparable": 0,
"disputed": 0,
"status": "calculated",
"sentence": "The author's stated price against the closing price of the same selection: median +9.3% over 5 picks. The price available to followers is the market price, shown separately."
}
],
"examples": [
{
"url": "/authors/jake-osgathorpe/picks/25/#pick-n-6e1a21f38ddd9608a277d73b",
"basis": "snapshot",
"stated": "1.91",
"market": "1.61",
"difference_percent": "18.6"
},
{
"url": "/authors/jake-osgathorpe/picks/7/#pick-n-6d437695295a254e353ebebd",
"basis": "closing",
"stated": "3.50",
"market": "3.10",
"difference_percent": "12.9"
},
{
"url": "/authors/jake-osgathorpe/picks/4/#pick-n-b71f3dc259e9aecb07041141",
"basis": "closing",
"stated": "2.10",
"market": "1.89",
"difference_percent": "11.4"
}
],
"method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way."
},
"record_summary": {
"contract_version": "1",
"entity_type": "person",
"entity_words": "Individual author",
"source": {
"name": "sportinglife.com",
"url": "https://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/premier-league-tips-foul-play/235230"
},
"observed_from": "2026-09-28",
"observed_to": "2026-11-07",
"data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
"state": "settled",
"series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
"series": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
"restored": true,
"headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
"headline_part": "archived",
"settled_picks": 24,
"matches": 22,
"void": 0,
"net_points_hundredths": 70250,
"staked_hundredths": 240000,
"return_percent": "29.27",
"stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
"period_from": "2024-08-17",
"period_to": "2026-04-08",
"status": "calculated",
"method_version": "retro-1.1",
"short_history": true,
"reason": null,
"reasons": [],
"sentence": "Forecast Record restored 24 settled archived picks by Jake Osgathorpe from copies archived before kick-off, across 22 matches between 17 August 2024 and 8 April 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned +29.3% on the total staked. Live record so far: won 3 of 5 settled live picks at our recorded market price. Of the 499 predictions we hold for Jake Osgathorpe, 375 are linked to matches: 45 were recorded by us before kick-off, 301 archived before kick-off by an independent web archive, 21 from the source’s own history and 8 first found after the match; 9 are excluded while the attribution is under review. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
"numbers": [
{
"label": "Settled archived picks",
"value": "24",
"anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
"note": null
},
{
"label": "Matches",
"value": "22",
"anchor": "/methodology/#match",
"note": null
},
{
"label": "Net result",
"value": "+702.50 points",
"anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
"note": "100 points per pick"
},
{
"label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
"value": "+29.3%",
"anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
"note": "95% interval −24.5% to +83.8%"
}
],
"limitations": [
"This page combines Jake Osgathorpe across 2 platforms. The record above counts each prediction once, even when the same pick (match, market and selection) appeared on more than one platform; each platform keeps its own total under “Where Jake Osgathorpe publishes”.",
"Reconstructed at archived prices: these picks were restored from copies of the author’s pages that an independent web archive saved before kick-off, at the last pre-match archive prices, bookmaker margin included.",
"9 predictions are kept out of this record’s totals: the article byline and the named tipster differ."
],
"other_series": [],
"return_over_time": [
{
"date": "2024-08-17",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000,
"n": 1
},
{
"date": "2024-08-31",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": -20000,
"n": 2
},
{
"date": "2024-09-14",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": -10700,
"n": 3
},
{
"date": "2024-10-26",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": 50,
"n": 5
},
{
"date": "2024-11-02",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": 9450,
"n": 6
},
{
"date": "2024-11-23",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": -1550,
"n": 9
},
{
"date": "2024-12-21",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": 20450,
"n": 10
},
{
"date": "2025-01-14",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": 36150,
"n": 11
},
{
"date": "2025-02-01",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": 56600,
"n": 12
},
{
"date": "2025-03-15",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": 56750,
"n": 14
},
{
"date": "2025-03-16",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": 73550,
"n": 16
},
{
"date": "2025-04-20",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": 63550,
"n": 17
},
{
"date": "2025-04-26",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": 43550,
"n": 19
},
{
"date": "2025-05-02",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": 33550,
"n": 20
},
{
"date": "2025-05-16",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": 47300,
"n": 21
},
{
"date": "2026-04-08",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": 70250,
"n": 24
}
],
"return_over_time_parts": {
"live": {
"part": "live",
"label": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
"series_code": "market_price",
"price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
"x_axis": "match_date",
"dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.",
"settled_picks": 5,
"matches": 5,
"match_dates": 4,
"period_from": "2026-10-23",
"period_to": "2026-11-07",
"stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
"final_points_hundredths": 10118,
"low": {
"date": "2026-11-05",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": -10654,
"after_picks": 3
},
"high": {
"date": "2026-11-07",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": 10118,
"after_picks": 5
},
"line_drawn": false,
"steps": [
{
"date": "2026-10-23",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000,
"n": 1,
"picks": 1
},
{
"date": "2026-10-31",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": -654,
"n": 2,
"picks": 1
},
{
"date": "2026-11-05",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": -10654,
"n": 3,
"picks": 1
},
{
"date": "2026-11-07",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": 10118,
"n": 5,
"picks": 2
}
]
},
"archived": {
"part": "archived",
"label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
"series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
"price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
"x_axis": "match_date",
"dated_note": "Dated by match day. These picks were restored from copies an independent web archive saved before kick-off; the line shows how they settled at archived prices.",
"settled_picks": 24,
"matches": 22,
"match_dates": 16,
"period_from": "2024-08-17",
"period_to": "2026-04-08",
"stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
"final_points_hundredths": 70250,
"low": {
"date": "2024-08-31",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": -20000,
"after_picks": 2
},
"high": {
"date": "2025-03-16",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": 73550,
"after_picks": 16
},
"line_drawn": true,
"steps": [
{
"date": "2024-08-17",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000,
"n": 1,
"picks": 1
},
{
"date": "2024-08-31",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": -20000,
"n": 2,
"picks": 1
},
{
"date": "2024-09-14",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": -10700,
"n": 3,
"picks": 1
},
{
"date": "2024-10-26",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": 50,
"n": 5,
"picks": 2
},
{
"date": "2024-11-02",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": 9450,
"n": 6,
"picks": 1
},
{
"date": "2024-11-23",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": -1550,
"n": 9,
"picks": 3
},
{
"date": "2024-12-21",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": 20450,
"n": 10,
"picks": 1
},
{
"date": "2025-01-14",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": 36150,
"n": 11,
"picks": 1
},
{
"date": "2025-02-01",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": 56600,
"n": 12,
"picks": 1
},
{
"date": "2025-03-15",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": 56750,
"n": 14,
"picks": 2
},
{
"date": "2025-03-16",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": 73550,
"n": 16,
"picks": 2
},
{
"date": "2025-04-20",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": 63550,
"n": 17,
"picks": 1
},
{
"date": "2025-04-26",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": 43550,
"n": 19,
"picks": 2
},
{
"date": "2025-05-02",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": 33550,
"n": 20,
"picks": 1
},
{
"date": "2025-05-16",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": 47300,
"n": 21,
"picks": 1
},
{
"date": "2026-04-08",
"cumulative_points_hundredths": 70250,
"n": 24,
"picks": 3
}
]
}
},
"author_response": null,
"cite": {
"text": "Forecast Record restored 24 settled archived picks by Jake Osgathorpe from copies archived before kick-off, across 22 matches between 17 August 2024 and 8 April 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned +29.3% on the total staked. Live record so far: won 3 of 5 settled live picks at our recorded market price. Of the 499 predictions we hold for Jake Osgathorpe, 375 are linked to matches: 45 were recorded by us before kick-off, 301 archived before kick-off by an independent web archive, 21 from the source’s own history and 8 first found after the match; 9 are excluded while the attribution is under review. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
"url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/jake-osgathorpe/",
"data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
"method_version": "retro-1.1"
},
"origin": {
"contract_version": "1",
"predictions": 490,
"under_review": 9,
"no_match_linked": 115,
"proven_predictions": 346,
"proven_checked": 223,
"proven_measured": 173,
"proven_dates": 44,
"parts": [
{
"code": "live",
"title": "Recorded before kick-off",
"explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
"predictions": 45,
"checked": 37,
"price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
"series_code": "market_price",
"main": {
"settled_picks": 5,
"void": 0,
"matches": 5,
"net_points_hundredths": 10118,
"staked_hundredths": 50000,
"return_percent": "20.24",
"interval_low": null,
"interval_high": null,
"interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
"period_from": "2026-10-23",
"period_to": "2026-11-07",
"method_version": "2.2",
"snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0",
"snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.0",
"checked_after_kickoff_picks": 1
},
"same_picks": [
{
"price": "Author-quoted price",
"series_code": "author_price",
"picks": 5,
"return_main_percent": "20.24",
"return_other_percent": "22.20",
"settled_excluding_void": 5,
"net_main_points_hundredths": 10118,
"net_other_points_hundredths": 11100,
"period_from": "2026-10-23",
"period_to": "2026-11-07"
},
{
"price": "Closing price",
"series_code": "closing_live",
"picks": 3,
"return_main_percent": "27.06",
"return_other_percent": "26.82",
"settled_excluding_void": 3,
"net_main_points_hundredths": 8118,
"net_other_points_hundredths": 8046,
"period_from": "2026-10-23",
"period_to": "2026-11-07"
}
],
"score": {
"score_forecasts": 21,
"exact_hits": 1,
"exact_rate": 4.8,
"outcome_checked": 21,
"outcome_hits": 7,
"outcome_rate": 33.3,
"baseline_matches": 18,
"baseline_distinct_matches": 18,
"outcome_hits_on_baseline": 6,
"outcome_rate_on_baseline": 33.3,
"favourite_hits": 8,
"favourite_rate": 44.4,
"price_basis": "our pre-match snapshot",
"pending": 0,
"void": 0,
"recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
"lines": [
"Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.",
"1 of 21 score forecasts named the exact score (4.8%).",
"The result implied by the named score was right in 6 of 18 matches; the market favourite was right in 8 of the same 18 matches.",
"A pre-match market favourite is known for 18 of 21 forecasts; the comparison uses only those.",
"The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest price in our own odds snapshot taken before kick-off.",
"The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win)."
]
},
"eligible": {
"checked": 37,
"priced": 5
},
"accuracy": {
"picks": 5,
"won": 3,
"won_percent": "60.0",
"implied_percent": "52.7",
"left_out": 0,
"by_market": [
{
"market": "Over/under goals",
"won": 3,
"picks": 3,
"implied_percent": "50.1"
},
{
"market": "Player to score",
"won": 0,
"picks": 1,
"implied_percent": "62.1"
},
{
"market": "Team goals",
"won": 0,
"picks": 1,
"implied_percent": "50.8"
}
]
},
"reviewed_after": {
"predictions": 13,
"right": 8,
"wrong": 5,
"other": 0
}
},
{
"code": "archived",
"title": "Archived before kick-off",
"explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
"predictions": 301,
"checked": 186,
"price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
"series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
"main": {
"settled_picks": 24,
"void": 0,
"matches": 22,
"net_points_hundredths": 70250,
"staked_hundredths": 240000,
"return_percent": "29.27",
"interval_low": "-24.54",
"interval_high": "83.78",
"interval_note": null,
"period_from": "2024-08-17",
"period_to": "2026-04-08",
"method_version": "retro-1.1"
},
"same_picks": [
{
"price": "Author-quoted price",
"series_code": "retro_author_price",
"picks": 20,
"return_main_percent": "28.65",
"return_other_percent": "37.30",
"settled_excluding_void": 20,
"net_main_points_hundredths": 57300,
"net_other_points_hundredths": 74590,
"period_from": "2024-08-31",
"period_to": "2025-05-16"
},
{
"price": "Closing price, aggregator",
"series_code": "retro_market_closing",
"picks": 5,
"return_main_percent": "-3.70",
"return_other_percent": "-2.31",
"settled_excluding_void": 5,
"net_main_points_hundredths": -1850,
"net_other_points_hundredths": -1154,
"period_from": "2025-02-01",
"period_to": "2025-04-26"
}
],
"score": {
"score_forecasts": 123,
"exact_hits": 14,
"exact_rate": 11.4,
"outcome_checked": 123,
"outcome_hits": 63,
"outcome_rate": 51.2,
"baseline_matches": 123,
"baseline_distinct_matches": 123,
"outcome_hits_on_baseline": 63,
"outcome_rate_on_baseline": 51.2,
"favourite_hits": 66,
"favourite_rate": 53.7,
"price_basis": "last pre-match archive price",
"pending": 1,
"void": 0,
"recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
"lines": [
"Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.",
"14 of 123 score forecasts named the exact score (11.4%).",
"The result implied by the named score was right in 63 of 123 matches; the market favourite was right in 66 of the same 123 matches.",
"The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off).",
"The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win)."
]
},
"eligible": {
"checked": 186,
"priced": 24
},
"accuracy": {
"picks": 24,
"won": 13,
"won_percent": "54.2",
"implied_percent": "42.8",
"left_out": 0,
"by_market": [
{
"market": "Match result",
"won": 3,
"picks": 6,
"implied_percent": "39.5"
},
{
"market": "Over/under goals",
"won": 2,
"picks": 6,
"implied_percent": "47.6"
},
{
"market": "Result and both teams to score",
"won": 1,
"picks": 5,
"implied_percent": "37.7"
},
{
"market": "Cards over/under",
"won": 2,
"picks": 2,
"implied_percent": "51.0"
},
{
"market": "Win to nil",
"won": 2,
"picks": 2,
"implied_percent": "35.2"
},
{
"market": "Other markets",
"won": 3,
"picks": 3,
"implied_percent": "47.8"
}
]
}
},
{
"code": "found_after",
"title": "Found after the match",
"explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
"predictions": 8,
"checked": 0,
"price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
"series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
"main": null,
"same_picks": [],
"score": {
"score_forecasts": 0,
"exact_hits": 0,
"exact_rate": null,
"outcome_checked": 0,
"outcome_hits": 0,
"outcome_rate": null,
"baseline_matches": 0,
"baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
"outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
"outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
"favourite_hits": 0,
"favourite_rate": null,
"price_basis": null,
"pending": 0,
"void": 0,
"recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
"lines": []
},
"eligible": {
"checked": 0,
"priced": 0
},
"accuracy": null
},
{
"code": "source_reported",
"title": "Source-reported history",
"explanation": "The time and the pick are known only from the source’s own history; it is the basis of the record check and never part of the evidenced total.",
"predictions": 21,
"checked": 19,
"price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
"series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
"main": {
"settled_picks": 18,
"void": 0,
"matches": 17,
"net_points_hundredths": 13200,
"staked_hundredths": 180000,
"return_percent": "7.33",
"interval_low": "-47.47",
"interval_high": "66.79",
"interval_note": null,
"period_from": "2025-02-19",
"period_to": "2026-05-13",
"method_version": "retro-1.1"
},
"same_picks": [
{
"price": "Author-quoted price",
"series_code": "retro_author_price",
"picks": 2,
"return_main_percent": "85.50",
"return_other_percent": "100.00",
"settled_excluding_void": 2,
"net_main_points_hundredths": 17100,
"net_other_points_hundredths": 20000,
"period_from": "2025-02-19",
"period_to": "2025-11-04"
}
],
"score": {
"score_forecasts": 0,
"exact_hits": 0,
"exact_rate": null,
"outcome_checked": 0,
"outcome_hits": 0,
"outcome_rate": null,
"baseline_matches": 0,
"baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
"outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
"outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
"favourite_hits": 0,
"favourite_rate": null,
"price_basis": null,
"pending": 0,
"void": 0,
"recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
"lines": []
},
"eligible": {
"checked": 19,
"priced": 18
},
"accuracy": {
"picks": 18,
"won": 9,
"won_percent": "50.0",
"implied_percent": "47.6",
"left_out": 0,
"by_market": [
{
"market": "Match result",
"won": 1,
"picks": 4,
"implied_percent": "34.1"
},
{
"market": "Double chance",
"won": 2,
"picks": 3,
"implied_percent": "50.8"
},
{
"market": "Over/under goals",
"won": 2,
"picks": 3,
"implied_percent": "55.5"
},
{
"market": "Win to nil",
"won": 3,
"picks": 3,
"implied_percent": "42.9"
},
{
"market": "Both teams to score",
"won": 0,
"picks": 2,
"implied_percent": "56.8"
},
{
"market": "Other markets",
"won": 1,
"picks": 3,
"implied_percent": "53.1"
}
]
}
}
]
},
"live_alongside": {
"predictions": 45,
"checked": 37,
"settled": 5,
"won": 3,
"void": 0,
"checked_won": 12,
"checked_settled": 37,
"threshold": 10,
"text": "Live record so far: won 3 of 5 settled live picks at our recorded market price."
},
"headline_record_ids": [
"n-0b30b6971d609c6a817649f8",
"n-16797cacd6d96f1007c76599",
"n-2cea224a4ff708e01bec0ec6",
"n-2e1062b10129a3d2f031a9c6",
"n-426b8ebb08fb0355ab28c3da",
"n-4b868b9429aef89dc71d5728",
"n-6149b6ff10d3af6c82eadc51",
"n-6d437695295a254e353ebebd",
"n-71e83de485c983ec126fd957",
"n-7471af4b39c29a1732550944",
"n-839571a2bde6f9a937c5f1bb",
"n-8dc1c9b081fff2bc1e6a988f",
"n-919a16f040b0ddebba0756f5",
"n-96761436042489c5e499d591",
"n-9b1aec201971ae173a97e2ec",
"n-b71f3dc259e9aecb07041141",
"n-c28ea86eab2ecd600b04fa02",
"n-c380e31b7007bfeba408da9c",
"n-c62ac94c0f3e136e87c426f1",
"n-cc385e290c747511c9f72994",
"n-df7f2fcd3bfcc9c3f485fba6",
"n-f63155c11b6b553794e99c29",
"n-f98ddd93627b4ec110db46c6",
"n-fefc39a4436663a65bd561cf"
],
"interval_low": "-24.54",
"interval_high": "83.78",
"caption": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) · 100 points per pick · 17 August 2024 – 8 April 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under reconstruction method 1.1",
"record_from": "2024-08-17",
"record_to": "2026-11-07"
},
"recorded_picks": [
{
"record_id": "n-a0885bd121e2043413ef0cd4",
"url": "/authors/jake-osgathorpe/picks/25/#pick-n-a0885bd121e2043413ef0cd4",
"match": "Fulham v Newcastle United",
"match_url": "/football/matches/fulham-vs-newcastle-united-2026-11-07/",
"kickoff": "2026-11-07T15:00:00.000Z",
"competition": "Premier League",
"lead_hours": 51.6,
"market_code": "total",
"author_said": "Over/Under 2.5 goals: under 2.5 at 2.25",
"quote": null,
"group": "settled",
"outcome": "Won",
"claim_outcome": "Won",
"final_score": "1-1",
"reason": null,
"reason_code": null,
"points_hundredths": 12000,
"series_code": "market_price",
"series_short": "odds snapshot",
"author_price": "2.25",
"settled_price": "2.2000",
"published_at": "2026-11-05T11:18:41.000Z",
"recorded_at": "2026-11-05T11:26:37.036Z",
"origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
"record_part": "live",
"record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off",
"in_headline": false,
"attribution": null,
"verdict_line": null,
"price_disputed": null,
"checked_after_kickoff": false,
"favourite": {
"outcome": "over",
"price": "1.6667",
"result": "Lost",
"points_hundredths": -10000,
"picked_favourite": false
},
"platform": null,
"correction": null,
"evidence": {
"observation_id": "n-a0885bd121e2043413ef0cd4",
"quote_text": "1pts Under 2.5 goals at 5/4 (Betfair, Betway)",
"fragment_from": 863,
"fragment_to": 908,
"quote_allowed": true,
"source_info": {
"medium": "website",
"url": "https://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/premier-league-tips-saturday-unders/235230",
"display_name": null,
"speaker": "Jake Osgathorpe",
"authorship": "channel_owner",
"media_from_ms": null,
"bundle_id": "67835e578c7c8d9ac34a71f49e665bc2ee0fd141ed1b6f1b3d5895200e2874df",
"material_removed": false
},
"published_at": "2026-11-05T11:18:41.000Z",
"detected_at": "2026-11-05T11:26:37.036Z",
"executed_at": "2026-11-05T11:28:38.599Z",
"statement_class": "priced",
"status": "recognised",
"cause": null,
"cause_code": null,
"event": {
"event_id": "s-5400ee392a3b",
"display_name": "Fulham — Newcastle United",
"competition_name": "Premier League",
"starts_at": "2026-11-07T15:00:00.000Z",
"url": "/football/matches/fulham-vs-newcastle-united-2026-11-07/",
"scoreline": "1-1",
"condition": "finished"
},
"market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
"outcome_label": "under 2.5",
"odds_set": {
"by_author": "2.25",
"our_snapshot": "2.2000",
"our_snapshot_at": "2026-11-05T11:23:33.293Z",
"our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot",
"closing": null,
"closing_source": null
},
"stake_hundredths": 10000,
"result": "win",
"simulation_change_hundredths": 12000,
"bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
"executed_by": "ours",
"series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot",
"withdrawn": false,
"provenance": "recorded_pre_match",
"provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
"dates": {
"fragment_at": "2026-11-05T11:18:41.000Z",
"fragment_basis": "page",
"source_page_at": "2026-11-05T11:18:41.000Z",
"detected_at": "2026-11-05T11:26:37.036Z",
"archive_snapshot_at": null,
"flags": [],
"flag_words": null,
"rule_version": "1.1"
},
"origin": "recorded_before_kickoff",
"origin_detail": null,
"origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
"added_on": null,
"late_publication": null,
"author_claim": {
"market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
"choice": "under 2.5",
"author_odds": "2.25",
"market_key": "total",
"choice_key": "under",
"period": "match",
"line": "2.5",
"subject": "goals_total",
"in_words": "Over/Under 2.5 goals: under 2.5 at 2.25"
},
"author_claim_outcome": {
"result": "win",
"scoreline": "1-1",
"data_status": "measured",
"cause": null,
"methodology_version": "2.2",
"in_words": "Won: the final score was Fulham 1-1 Newcastle United."
},
"settlements": [
{
"operation_id": "3faaf450c607403592a49988b45be75b1fa91ee58a9044ce0c69d7db96d58708",
"series_key": "author_price",
"series_label": "At the author's stated price",
"derived": false,
"site_simulation": true,
"author_words": true,
"market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
"choice": "under 2.5",
"decimal_odds": "2.25",
"odds_role": "author_price",
"stake_hundredths": 10000,
"status": "confirmed",
"status_text": "Executed",
"result": "win",
"result_words": "Won",
"change_hundredths": 12500,
"executed_at": "2026-11-05T11:28:34.233Z",
"methodology_version": "2.2",
"on_claim_market": true,
"replaced": false
},
{
"operation_id": "40b94463d82102ba1a0ac021b3957db53d76a50b3c0151f90e1e194281e7f614",
"series_key": "market_price",
"series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot",
"derived": false,
"site_simulation": true,
"author_words": true,
"market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
"choice": "under 2.5",
"decimal_odds": "2.2000",
"odds_role": "market_price",
"stake_hundredths": 10000,
"status": "confirmed",
"status_text": "Executed",
"result": "win",
"result_words": "Won",
"change_hundredths": 12000,
"executed_at": "2026-11-05T11:28:38.599Z",
"methodology_version": "2.2",
"on_claim_market": true,
"replaced": false
}
],
"corrections": [],
"funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
"authorship": {
"material_author": "Jake Osgathorpe",
"publisher": "sportinglife.com",
"forecaster": "Jake Osgathorpe",
"forecaster_named_in_text": true,
"basis": null,
"status": "matches_source",
"status_words": "Named in the source as the tipster",
"status_note": null,
"evidence_fragment": "Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League tips and predictions: 26/27 Saturday Matchday 10 Fast Results Scores Racecards NEWFree Bets Log In Join Horse RacingFootballTipsGreyhoundsSportsFree Betsnew",
"material_url": "https://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/premier-league-tips-saturday-unders/235230",
"excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
"verdict_by": null,
"verdict_line": null
},
"correction": null,
"choice_words": "under 2.5 (Over/Under 2.5 goals)"
}
},
{
"record_id": "n-ab7297375ee11cec0a41a37e",
"url": "/authors/jake-osgathorpe/picks/25/#pick-n-ab7297375ee11cec0a41a37e",
"match": "Leeds United v Tottenham Hotspur",
"match_url": "/football/matches/leeds-united-vs-tottenham-hotspur-2026-11-07/",
"kickoff": "2026-11-07T12:30:00.000Z",
"competition": "Premier League",
"lead_hours": 49.1,
"market_code": "total",
"author_said": "Over/Under 2.5 goals: under 2.5 at 1.91",
"quote": null,
"group": "settled",
"outcome": "Won",
"claim_outcome": "Won",
"final_score": "1-0",
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{
"url": "https://www.sportinglife.com/about-us",
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{
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"what": "Заместитель редактора футбольного раздела; учёт прогнозов с 2024 года: +107.36 пункта, ROI 7.5% при 1 425.65 пункта ставок (по выдаче поиска, страницу не открывал)"
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"text": "+29.27% on 24 settled picks across 22 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
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"composition_hash": "56fc2499d22aad2f00e2a79dfaa17364ea33ce45a2067d8161b3dd5f559599ea",
"text": "+29.27% on 24 settled picks across 22 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
},
"after": {
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"composition_hash": "6b9b93dd3b3ced993b43ac19ea1f655e2b61314496b4e665a7a93f4c6480db83",
"text": "+21.61% on 28 settled picks across 26 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
},
"reason": "Added 4 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
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},
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},
{
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},
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"method_version": "retro-1.1",
"composition_hash": "56fc2499d22aad2f00e2a79dfaa17364ea33ce45a2067d8161b3dd5f559599ea",
"text": "+29.27% on 24 settled picks across 22 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
},
"reason": "Data corrected: 2 picks left the headline sample.",
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},
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{
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"composition_hash": "6b9b93dd3b3ced993b43ac19ea1f655e2b61314496b4e665a7a93f4c6480db83",
"text": "+21.61% on 28 settled picks across 26 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
},
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"composition_hash": "a6864b584c4298a4e6591326017b6d8be1528ed2e86db053531ca764a6017cc6",
"text": "+23.27% on 26 settled picks across 24 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
},
"reason": "Data corrected: 2 picks left the headline sample.",
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},
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{
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"composition_hash": "a6864b584c4298a4e6591326017b6d8be1528ed2e86db053531ca764a6017cc6",
"text": "+23.27% on 26 settled picks across 24 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
},
"after": {
"data_version": "2026-10-18.2",
"return_percent": "21.61",
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"method_version": "retro-1.1",
"composition_hash": "6b9b93dd3b3ced993b43ac19ea1f655e2b61314496b4e665a7a93f4c6480db83",
"text": "+21.61% on 28 settled picks across 26 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
},
"reason": "Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
"checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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},
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},
{
"id": "zc-6f9fd79be4cc2dcd3e2a",
"at": "2026-10-16T17:26:36.835Z",
"data_version": "2026-10-16.5",
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"url": "/authors/jake-osgathorpe/",
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"method_version": "retro-1.1",
"composition_hash": "6b9b93dd3b3ced993b43ac19ea1f655e2b61314496b4e665a7a93f4c6480db83",
"text": "+21.61% on 28 settled picks across 26 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
},
"after": {
"data_version": "2026-10-16.5",
"return_percent": "23.27",
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"void": 0,
"series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
"price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
"method_version": "retro-1.1",
"composition_hash": "a6864b584c4298a4e6591326017b6d8be1528ed2e86db053531ca764a6017cc6",
"text": "+23.27% on 26 settled picks across 24 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
},
"reason": "Data corrected: 2 picks left the headline sample.",
"checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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},
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},
{
"id": "zc-28b63a933f1f2ffb159f",
"at": "2026-10-13T20:21:18.065Z",
"data_version": "2026-10-13.5",
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"url": "/authors/jake-osgathorpe/",
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"data_version": "2026-10-09.2",
"return_percent": "15.02",
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"matches": 24,
"void": 0,
"series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
"price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
"method_version": "retro-1.1",
"composition_hash": "3c16b0a81ee7e8a4ed7d6e2b862e2c7f8be4e2cda39ffc2e08833d1fd628077b",
"text": "+15.02% on 25 settled picks across 24 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
},
"after": {
"data_version": "2026-10-13.5",
"return_percent": "21.61",
"settled_picks": 28,
"matches": 26,
"void": 0,
"series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
"price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
"method_version": "retro-1.1",
"composition_hash": "6b9b93dd3b3ced993b43ac19ea1f655e2b61314496b4e665a7a93f4c6480db83",
"text": "+21.61% on 28 settled picks across 26 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
},
"reason": "Added 3 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
"checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
"affected_records": {
"added": 3,
"removed": 0,
"changed": 0
},
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},
{
"id": "zc-e54bb6d73fc59e74161c",
"at": "2026-10-09T12:49:36.723Z",
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"url": "/authors/jake-osgathorpe/",
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"matches": 48,
"void": 0,
"series_code": "retro_author_price",
"price_rule": "author's stated odds, restored",
"method_version": "retro-1.0",
"composition_hash": "4dd9c03490112ee7d004e5cb9dfdde029c71b5058b87f553aa7e75a9af20317a",
"text": "+20.50% on 60 settled picks across 48 matches · author's stated odds, restored · method retro-1.0"
},
"after": {
"data_version": "2026-10-09.2",
"return_percent": "15.02",
"settled_picks": 25,
"matches": 24,
"void": 0,
"series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
"price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
"method_version": "retro-1.1",
"composition_hash": "3c16b0a81ee7e8a4ed7d6e2b862e2c7f8be4e2cda39ffc2e08833d1fd628077b",
"text": "+15.02% on 25 settled picks across 24 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
},
"reason": "The headline rule changed on 9 October 2026: the headline is the live record at our recorded market price; without one, a historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only. Picks first found after the match no longer enter the headline number. Was: author's stated odds, restored (60 settled picks). Now: historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (25 settled picks).",
"checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
"affected_records": {
"added": 3,
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},
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}
],
"counts_by_slice": {
"portions": [
{
"code": "live",
"title": "Recorded before kick-off",
"price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
"settled_picks": 5,
"total_check": true,
"market_list": [
{
"code_name": "total",
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},
{
"code_name": "player_to_score",
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"url": null,
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"period_from": "2026-11-05",
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},
{
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"period_from": "2026-10-23",
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}
],
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{
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{
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},
{
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"small_sample": true,
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}
]
},
{
"code_name": "UEFA Europa League",
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"void": 0,
"net_points_hundredths": -10000,
"return_percent": "-100.0",
"period_from": "2026-11-05",
"period_to": "2026-11-05",
"small_sample": true,
"average_odds": "1.91",
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{
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"net_points_hundredths": -10000,
"return_percent": null,
"period_from": "2026-11-05",
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"small_sample": true,
"average_odds": "1.91",
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}
]
}
],
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},
{
"code": "archived",
"title": "Archived before kick-off",
"price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
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{
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"period_from": "2024-08-17",
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"small_sample": true,
"average_odds": "2.81",
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},
{
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"settled_picks": 6,
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"small_sample": true,
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},
{
"code_name": "both_teams_score_and_result",
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"net_points_hundredths": -19250,
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"period_to": "2026-04-08",
"small_sample": true,
"average_odds": "2.82",
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},
{
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"void": 0,
"net_points_hundredths": 19250,
"return_percent": "96.2",
"period_from": "2025-03-15",
"period_to": "2025-03-16",
"small_sample": true,
"average_odds": "2.10",
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},
{
"code_name": "win_to_nil",
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"settled_picks": 2,
"won": 2,
"void": 0,
"net_points_hundredths": 39000,
"return_percent": "195.0",
"period_from": "2025-05-16",
"period_to": "2026-04-08",
"small_sample": true,
"average_odds": "3.16",
"odds_from_author": 1,
"odds_from_snapshot": 1
},
{
"code_name": "both_teams_score",
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"url": null,
"settled_picks": 1,
"won": 1,
"void": 0,
"net_points_hundredths": 9300,
"return_percent": "93.0",
"period_from": "2024-09-14",
"period_to": "2024-09-14",
"small_sample": true,
"average_odds": "2.00",
"odds_from_author": 1,
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},
{
"code_name": "double_chance",
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"url": null,
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"won": 1,
"void": 0,
"net_points_hundredths": 15700,
"return_percent": "157.0",
"period_from": "2025-01-14",
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"small_sample": true,
"average_odds": "2.40",
"odds_from_author": 1,
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},
{
"code_name": "result_and_total",
"in_words": "Result and total goals",
"url": null,
"settled_picks": 1,
"won": 1,
"void": 0,
"net_points_hundredths": 9000,
"return_percent": "90.0",
"period_from": "2024-11-23",
"period_to": "2024-11-23",
"small_sample": true,
"average_odds": "2.05",
"odds_from_author": 1,
"odds_from_snapshot": 0
}
],
"leagues": [
{
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"in_words": "Premier League",
"url": "/football/competitions/premier-league/",
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"won": 11,
"void": 0,
"net_points_hundredths": 47300,
"return_percent": "22.5",
"period_from": "2024-08-17",
"period_to": "2025-05-16",
"small_sample": false,
"average_odds": "2.59",
"odds_from_author": 20,
"odds_from_snapshot": 1,
"league_markets": [
{
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"in_words": "Over/under goals",
"settled_picks": 6,
"won": 2,
"void": 0,
"net_points_hundredths": -22900,
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"period_from": "2024-08-31",
"period_to": "2025-04-26",
"small_sample": true,
"average_odds": "2.34",
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},
{
"code_name": "1x2",
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"won": 2,
"void": 0,
"net_points_hundredths": 12450,
"return_percent": null,
"period_from": "2024-08-17",
"period_to": "2025-04-20",
"small_sample": true,
"average_odds": "3.02",
"odds_from_author": 4,
"odds_from_snapshot": 1
},
{
"code_name": "both_teams_score_and_result",
"in_words": "Result and both teams to score",
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"won": 1,
"void": 0,
"net_points_hundredths": -9250,
"return_percent": null,
"period_from": "2024-10-26",
"period_to": "2025-05-02",
"small_sample": true,
"average_odds": "2.92",
"odds_from_author": 4,
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},
{
"code_name": "cards_over_under",
"in_words": "Cards over/under",
"settled_picks": 2,
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"void": 0,
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{
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{
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],
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"body": "Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 499 predictions · last change 7 November 2026",
"url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/jake-osgathorpe/",
"s": "2026-09-28",
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"html": "Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 499 predictions · last change 7 November 2026"
},
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"days": 814,
"weeks": 25,
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"in_review": false,
"own_page": true,
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"min_days": 30,
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},
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},
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{
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"source_name": "Sporting Life",
"source_url": "/sources/sporting-life/",
"label": "Also at Sporting Life",
"authors_total": 3,
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{
"name": "Joe Townsend",
"url": "/authors/joe-townsend/",
"headline_part": "archived",
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"return_percent": null,
"small_sample": true,
"average_odds": null,
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"odds_from_snapshot": null
},
{
"name": "Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill",
"url": "/authors/jimmy-the-punt-cantrill/",
"headline_part": "archived",
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"average_odds": "2.31",
"odds_from_author": 0,
"odds_from_snapshot": 3
},
{
"name": "Tom Carnduff",
"url": "/authors/tom-carnduff/",
"headline_part": "archived",
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}
]
}
],
"reconciliations": [
{
"url": "/record-checks/sporting-life-jake-osgathorpe-season-2026-27-2026-10-11/",
"heading": "Sporting Life — Jake Osgathorpe, Season 2026-27: Own Record Check",
"conclusion": "Not directly comparable: the season total is published without its rows, and the stake of each bet (0.25 to 2.5 points) sits outside the published record, so the total is the source’s own figure; the claimed period starts on 2026-08-01, before our collection of this source began (2026-09-28).",
"data": "2026-10-11",
"author_name": "Jake Osgathorpe"
},
{
"url": "/record-checks/sporting-life-jake-osgathorpe-2026-09-2026-10-11/",
"heading": "Sporting Life — Jake Osgathorpe, September 2026: Own Record Check",
"conclusion": "Its own rows add up to +7.45 points, not the +7.95 claimed. Not directly comparable: each row of its record is a whole column of several bets with one total, and the stake of each bet (0.25 to 2.5 points) sits outside the published record, so the total is the source’s own figure.",
"data": "2026-10-11",
"author_name": "Jake Osgathorpe"
}
],
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"total": 2,
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"latest": {
"check_url": "/record-checks/sporting-life-jake-osgathorpe-season-2026-27-2026-10-11/",
"claim_id": "zv-a394eafa74ec",
"check_id": "sv-9faec1ae93c6",
"claim_date": "2026-10-11",
"comparable": false,
"outcome": "not_comparable",
"author": "Jake Osgathorpe",
"product": "Jake's Predictions",
"claimed_period": {
"since": "2026-08-01",
"until": null
},
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"losses": 25,
"voids": 0,
"settled": 37,
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"rows": 160,
"before_kickoff_rows": 45,
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},
"theirs": {
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"voids": null,
"profit": "-8.8",
"roi": "-9%",
"predictions": null,
"rows": 0,
"own_rows_add_up_to": null
},
"difference_reason": "The season total is published without its rows, and the stake of each bet (0.25 to 2.5 points) sits outside the published record, so the total is the source’s own figure; the claimed period starts on 2026-08-01, before our collection of this source began (2026-09-28).",
"verdict": "Not directly comparable: the season total is published without its rows, and the stake of each bet (0.25 to 2.5 points) sits outside the published record, so the total is the source’s own figure; the claimed period starts on 2026-08-01, before our collection of this source began (2026-09-28)."
},
"items": [
{
"check_url": "/record-checks/sporting-life-jake-osgathorpe-season-2026-27-2026-10-11/",
"claim_id": "zv-a394eafa74ec",
"check_id": "sv-9faec1ae93c6",
"claim_date": "2026-10-11",
"comparable": false,
"outcome": "not_comparable",
"author": "Jake Osgathorpe",
"product": "Jake's Predictions",
"claimed_period": {
"since": "2026-08-01",
"until": null
},
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"losses": 25,
"voids": 0,
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},
"theirs": {
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"profit": "-8.8",
"roi": "-9%",
"predictions": null,
"rows": 0,
"own_rows_add_up_to": null
},
"difference_reason": "The season total is published without its rows, and the stake of each bet (0.25 to 2.5 points) sits outside the published record, so the total is the source’s own figure; the claimed period starts on 2026-08-01, before our collection of this source began (2026-09-28).",
"verdict": "Not directly comparable: the season total is published without its rows, and the stake of each bet (0.25 to 2.5 points) sits outside the published record, so the total is the source’s own figure; the claimed period starts on 2026-08-01, before our collection of this source began (2026-09-28)."
},
{
"check_url": "/record-checks/sporting-life-jake-osgathorpe-2026-09-2026-10-11/",
"claim_id": "zv-89466e0ff224",
"check_id": "sv-f9ad55cafc2b",
"claim_date": "2026-10-11",
"comparable": false,
"outcome": "not_comparable",
"author": "Jake Osgathorpe",
"product": "Jake's Predictions",
"claimed_period": {
"since": "2026-09-01",
"until": "2026-09-30"
},
"our": {
"wins": 0,
"losses": 0,
"voids": 0,
"settled": 0,
"profit": 0.0,
"rows": 10,
"before_kickoff_rows": 0,
"before_kickoff_settled": 0
},
"theirs": {
"wins": null,
"losses": null,
"voids": null,
"profit": "+7.95",
"roi": null,
"predictions": null,
"rows": 9,
"own_rows_add_up_to": 7.45
},
"difference_reason": "Its own rows add up to +7.45 points, not the +7.95 claimed. Each row of its record is a whole column of several bets with one total, and the stake of each bet (0.25 to 2.5 points) sits outside the published record, so the total is the source’s own figure.",
"verdict": "Its own rows add up to +7.45 points, not the +7.95 claimed. Not directly comparable: each row of its record is a whole column of several bets with one total, and the stake of each bet (0.25 to 2.5 points) sits outside the published record, so the total is the source’s own figure."
}
]
},
"author_type": "Pundit",
"data_changes": {
"added_later": "56 records added on 28 Sep 2026 from archived copies; 166 records added on 30 Sep 2026 from archived copies; 19 records added on 12 Oct 2026 from the source's own history; 11 more records added on other dates. The current numbers include them; numbers published earlier, including the record before each match, do not change.",
"records_corrected": 1,
"last_correction_at": "2026-10-22T09:54:30.278Z",
"corrections_url": "/corrections/",
"text": "1 record shown here has been corrected; the last correction was on 22 October 2026, with its reason in the corrections log."
},
"entity_id": "person:o-aec6716d25833ac2772a1070",
"source_revision": 196,
"related": [
{
"url": "/cards/e-aec6716d25833ac2772a1070-bank/",
"name": "Bankroll card — Jake Osgathorpe",
"detail": null,
"source_group": "cards"
},
{
"url": "/cards/e-aec6716d25833ac2772a1070-month-following/",
"name": "A month following Jake Osgathorpe",
"detail": null,
"source_group": "cards"
},
{
"url": "/cards/e-aec6716d25833ac2772a1070-said-vs-happened/",
"name": "Said → happened — Jake Osgathorpe",
"detail": null,
"source_group": "cards"
},
{
"url": "/cards/e-aec6716d25833ac2772a1070-turning-point/",
"name": "Turning point — Jake Osgathorpe",
"detail": null,
"source_group": "cards"
},
{
"url": "/for-authors/jake-osgathorpe/",
"name": "Your record on Forecast Record: Jake Osgathorpe",
"detail": null,
"source_group": "for_authors"
}
],
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"entity": "e-aec6716d25833ac2772a1070",
"value": 94,
"where": "coverage",
"as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z"
},
{
"set": "profile.predictions",
"entity": "e-aec6716d25833ac2772a1070",
"value": 499,
"where": "coverage",
"as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z"
},
{
"set": "profile.predictions",
"entity": "e-aec6716d25833ac2772a1070",
"value": 499,
"where": "picks",
"as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z"
},
{
"set": "profile.part.live",
"entity": "e-aec6716d25833ac2772a1070",
"value": 5,
"where": "origin",
"as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z"
},
{
"set": "profile.part.archived",
"entity": "e-aec6716d25833ac2772a1070",
"value": 24,
"where": "origin-archived",
"as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z"
},
{
"set": "profile.part.found_after",
"entity": "e-aec6716d25833ac2772a1070",
"value": 0,
"where": null,
"as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z"
},
{
"set": "profile.part.source_reported",
"entity": "e-aec6716d25833ac2772a1070",
"value": 18,
"where": null,
"as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z"
},
{
"set": "profile.checked.live",
"entity": "e-aec6716d25833ac2772a1070",
"value": 37,
"where": "origin",
"as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z"
},
{
"set": "profile.checked.archived",
"entity": "e-aec6716d25833ac2772a1070",
"value": 186,
"where": "origin-archived",
"as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z"
},
{
"set": "profile.window",
"entity": "e-aec6716d25833ac2772a1070",
"value": 5,
"where": "calculation",
"as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
"label": true
},
{
"set": "profile.checked",
"entity": "e-aec6716d25833ac2772a1070",
"value": 223,
"where": "trust-level",
"as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
"label": true
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}