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 "heading": "Ivan Erofeev: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "16 settled picks by Ivan Erofeev archived before kick-off across 7 matches, 17 Aug 2026 – 3 Oct 2026: −72.2% reconstructed at archived prices.",
 "first_paragraph": {
  "body": "Forecast Record restored 16 settled archived picks by Ivan Erofeev from copies archived before kick-off, across 7 matches between 17 August and 3 October 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned −72.2% on the total staked. Of the 857 predictions we hold for Ivan Erofeev, 16 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 1 from the source’s own history; 840 are excluded while the attribution is under review. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "key_number": "−72.2%",
  "data": "2026-11-07",
  "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot",
  "brand": "Forecast Record"
 },
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 "noindex_reason": "quarantine",
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  "live_count": 0,
  "restored_count": 789,
  "of_them_archived": 16
 },
 "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
 "built_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
 "lastmod": "2026-11-08T02:12:33.000Z",
 "content_hash": null,
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 "dependency_group": "author:e-c8f484de48e4f0b55507d5fc",
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 ],
 "exports": [
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  },
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 ],
 "modules": {
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  "api": true,
  "compare_yourself": false
 },
 "affiliate_block": {
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  "request_url": "/partnery/moi",
  "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.",
  "page_category": "author"
 },
 "restrictions": {
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 },
 "page_links": {
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  "right_of_reply": "/right-of-reply/",
  "source_coverage": "/coverage/",
  "corrections_log": "/corrections/",
  "api": "/api/",
  "claim": "/claim/"
 },
 "entity": {
  "id": "e-c8f484de48e4f0b55507d5fc",
  "public_name": "Ivan Erofeev",
  "tracker_number": 4063,
  "status": "active",
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  "observation_period": {
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   "until": "2026-10-13"
  },
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 },
 "headline_number": {
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   "code_name": "roi_market_price",
   "display_name": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot",
   "window_kind": "90d",
   "window_from": "2026-08-09",
   "window_to": "2026-11-07",
   "amount": null,
   "unit": "percent",
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "no pick in this window has been settled",
   "n_bets": 0,
   "n_events": 0,
   "n_void": null,
   "ci_low": null,
   "ci_high": null,
   "ci_method": "not_estimated",
   "price_source": "market_price",
   "coverage_percent": null,
   "breakdown": [],
   "methodology_version": "2.2",
   "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
   "enough_for_ranking": false,
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   "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot"
  },
  "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 0 settled picks across 0 matches",
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  "odds_from_author": null,
  "odds_from_snapshot": null
 },
 "metrics": [],
 "history": [],
 "simulation": {
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  "bankroll_hundredths": 1000000,
  "reserve_hundredths": 0,
  "issued_total_hundredths": 1000000,
  "initial_hundredths": 1000000,
  "stake_hundredths": 10000,
  "top_up_count": 0,
  "profit_hundredths": 0,
  "rewards_off": null,
  "data_points": [],
  "top_ups": [],
  "rule": "Every tracked author starts with 10,000 points and stakes 100 per qualifying pick. This author has 0 settled bets, so the bankroll stands at its starting value."
 },
 "simulations": [],
 "completeness": {
  "detected": 857,
  "recognised": 857,
  "accepted": 856,
  "executed": 856,
  "calculated": 789,
  "gaps": [
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    "figure": 1
   }
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 },
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  "not_predictions": {
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   "not_about_a_match": 0,
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  "predictions": 857,
  "predictions_restored": 857,
  "matches": 45,
  "admitted": 856,
  "qualifying_picks": 856,
  "qualifying_picks_restored": 856,
  "settled_picks": 789,
  "settled_picks_restored": 789,
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    "matches": 263,
    "operations_settled": 332,
    "stakes_hundredths": [
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    "methodologies": [
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    "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price"
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 },
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   "quote_text": "точный счёт – 4:1 ",
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   "source_info": {
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    "display_name": "Aston Villa v BSC Young Boys",
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    "closing": "13.0000",
    "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   },
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   "added_on": "Added to our record on 13 Oct 2026",
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    "choice": "Aston Villa 4-1 BSC Young Boys",
    "author_odds": null,
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    "in_words": "Correct score: Aston Villa 4-1 BSC Young Boys"
   },
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    "in_words": "Did not match: the final score was Aston Villa 2-1 BSC Young Boys."
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   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
   "authorship": {
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    "status": "under_check",
    "status_words": "Attribution under review",
    "status_note": "The source does not name the tipster, and the byline is a different person; the selection was linked to this profile only through the channel we follow for it. It is excluded from individual performance summaries until the attribution is resolved.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://metaratings.ru/prognozy/futbol/aston-villa-yang-boiz-prognoz-na-match-ligi-evropy-27-noyabrya-2025-goda/",
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  {
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   "url": "/authors/ivan-erofeev/picks/44/#pick-n-74ee76f4a7f69495e9078ff9",
   "quote_text": "точный счёт – 1:1 с коэффициентом 9,50",
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   "source_info": {
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   "published_at": "2025-11-26T16:50:00.000Z",
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    "display_name": "AS Roma v FC Midtjylland",
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    "closing": "7.5000",
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   },
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    "detected_at": "2026-10-13T17:00:42.331Z",
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   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "added_on": "Added to our record on 13 Oct 2026",
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    "choice": "AS Roma 1-1 FC Midtjylland",
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   },
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    "in_words": "Did not match: the final score was AS Roma 2-1 FC Midtjylland."
   },
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     "market_label": "Correct score",
     "choice": "AS Roma 1-1 FC Midtjylland",
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     "status": "confirmed",
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     "result_words": "Lost",
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   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
   "authorship": {
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    "status": "under_check",
    "status_words": "Attribution under review",
    "status_note": "The source does not name the tipster, and the byline is a different person; the selection was linked to this profile only through the channel we follow for it. It is excluded from individual performance summaries until the attribution is resolved.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://metaratings.ru/prognozy/futbol/roma-midtyullann-prognoz-na-match-ligi-evropy-27-noyabrya-2025-goda/",
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  {
   "observation_id": "n-e7fff2defb6d406413662f99",
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   "quote_text": "точный счёт – 2:1",
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   "source_info": {
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    "closing": "9.7000",
    "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
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   "added_on": "Added to our record on 13 Oct 2026",
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   "author_claim": {
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    "choice": "FC Drita 2-1 Skendija 79",
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    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "Correct score: FC Drita 2-1 Skendija 79"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "scoreline": "1-0",
    "data_status": "measured",
    "cause": null,
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "in_words": "Did not match: the final score was FC Drita 1-0 Skendija 79."
   },
   "settlements": [
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     "site_simulation": true,
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     "market_label": "Correct score",
     "choice": "FC Drita 2-1 Skendija 79",
     "decimal_odds": "9.7000",
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     "status": "confirmed",
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     "result_words": "Lost",
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     "executed_at": "2026-10-13T19:58:54.393Z",
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   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
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   "settlements": [
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     "operation_id": "e8a8cd217bb5c27e03246f4186ca58b19ba1271de9f16dffb13e7724f96736dc",
     "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Correct score",
     "choice": "Manchester United 1-2 Newcastle United",
     "decimal_odds": "9.2000",
     "odds_role": "closing_odds",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "loss",
     "result_words": "Lost",
     "change_hundredths": -10000,
     "executed_at": "2026-10-13T20:00:26.132Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    }
   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
   "authorship": {
    "material_author": null,
    "publisher": "Metaratings",
    "forecaster": null,
    "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
    "basis": "channel_owner_only",
    "status": "under_check",
    "status_words": "Attribution under review",
    "status_note": "The source does not name the tipster, and the byline is a different person; the selection was linked to this profile only through the channel we follow for it. It is excluded from individual performance summaries until the attribution is resolved.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://metaratings.ru/prognozy/futbol/manchester-yunaited-nyukasl-prognoz-na-match-apl-26-dekabrya-2025-goda/",
    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": true,
    "verdict_by": null,
    "verdict_line": null
   },
   "correction": null
  }
 ],
 "standing": null,
 "retro": {
  "restored_total": 789,
  "of_them_archived_pre_match": 16,
  "found_post_match": 0,
  "of_them_source_reported": 773,
  "live_count": 0,
  "date_count": 128,
  "span_from": "2025-11-27",
  "span_to": "2026-10-03",
  "line_text": "restored history: 789, of which pre-match archive 16",
  "body": "We re-read what this author published before Premier League, Champions League, Europa League, Conference League, Bundesliga, LaLiga, Ligue 1, International Soccer, Serie A, Eredivisie, Primeira Liga and Süper Lig matches between 27 November 2025 and 3 October 2026 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 789. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 16. Taken from the source’s own published history, published before kick-off by the source’s own date: 773. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 0. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.",
  "precision": {
   "n": 785,
   "share": "0.2433"
  },
  "series_list": [
   {
    "code_name": "retro_author_price",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
    "n": 327,
    "roi": "-7.1437",
    "ci_low": "-18.1335",
    "ci_high": "4.3025",
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price",
    "n": 0,
    "roi": null,
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": "no restored pick with this price"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "n": 783,
    "roi": "-25.0370",
    "ci_low": "-40.4190",
    "ci_high": "-9.7978",
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   }
  ],
  "clv": {
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above"
  },
  "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
  "leagues": [
   "Premier League",
   "Champions League",
   "Europa League",
   "Conference League",
   "Bundesliga",
   "LaLiga",
   "Ligue 1",
   "International Soccer",
   "Serie A",
   "Eredivisie",
   "Primeira Liga",
   "Süper Lig"
  ],
  "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 0 settled restored picks and forecasts, and the two agree; 789 come from one provider only. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged."
 },
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": null,
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "metaratings.ru",
   "url": "https://metaratings.ru/prognozy/futbol/aston-villa-yang-boiz-prognoz-na-match-ligi-evropy-27-noyabrya-2025-goda/"
  },
  "observed_from": "2026-10-11",
  "observed_to": "2026-10-13",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
  "series": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
  "restored": true,
  "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
  "headline_part": "archived",
  "settled_picks": 16,
  "matches": 7,
  "void": 1,
  "net_points_hundredths": -108250,
  "staked_hundredths": 150000,
  "return_percent": "-72.17",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2026-08-17",
  "period_to": "2026-10-03",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "retro-1.1",
  "short_history": true,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record restored 16 settled archived picks by Ivan Erofeev from copies archived before kick-off, across 7 matches between 17 August and 3 October 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned −72.2% on the total staked. Of the 857 predictions we hold for Ivan Erofeev, 16 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 1 from the source’s own history; 840 are excluded while the attribution is under review. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled archived picks",
    "value": "16",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": "1 void"
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "7",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "−1,082.50 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "value": "−72.2%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": null
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [
   "Reconstructed at archived prices: these picks were restored from copies of the author’s pages that an independent web archive saved before kick-off, at the last pre-match archive prices, bookmaker margin included.",
   "840 predictions are kept out of this record’s totals: the article byline and the named tipster differ."
  ],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [
   {
    "date": "2026-08-17",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -750,
    "n": 2
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-09-08",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10750,
    "n": 4
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-09-15",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -48250,
    "n": 10
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-09-16",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -78250,
    "n": 13
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-03",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -108250,
    "n": 16
   }
  ],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": null,
   "archived": {
    "part": "archived",
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. These picks were restored from copies an independent web archive saved before kick-off; the line shows how they settled at archived prices.",
    "settled_picks": 16,
    "matches": 7,
    "match_dates": 5,
    "period_from": "2026-08-17",
    "period_to": "2026-10-03",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": -108250,
    "low": {
     "date": "2026-10-03",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -108250,
     "after_picks": 16
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2026-08-17",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -750,
     "after_picks": 2
    },
    "line_drawn": true,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2026-08-17",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -750,
      "n": 2,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-09-08",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10750,
      "n": 4,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-09-15",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -48250,
      "n": 10,
      "picks": 6
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-09-16",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -78250,
      "n": 13,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-03",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -108250,
      "n": 16,
      "picks": 3
     }
    ]
   }
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record restored 16 settled archived picks by Ivan Erofeev from copies archived before kick-off, across 7 matches between 17 August and 3 October 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned −72.2% on the total staked. Of the 857 predictions we hold for Ivan Erofeev, 16 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 1 from the source’s own history; 840 are excluded while the attribution is under review. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/ivan-erofeev/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "retro-1.1"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 17,
   "under_review": 840,
   "no_match_linked": 0,
   "proven_predictions": 16,
   "proven_checked": 16,
   "proven_measured": 23,
   "proven_dates": 5,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 16,
     "checked": 16,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 16,
      "void": 1,
      "matches": 7,
      "net_points_hundredths": -108250,
      "staked_hundredths": 150000,
      "return_percent": "-72.17",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2026-08-17",
      "period_to": "2026-10-03",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 9,
       "return_main_percent": "-47.81",
       "return_other_percent": "-48.50",
       "settled_excluding_void": 8,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -38250,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -38800,
       "period_from": "2026-08-17",
       "period_to": "2026-10-03"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 7,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": 0.0,
      "outcome_checked": 7,
      "outcome_hits": 5,
      "outcome_rate": 71.4,
      "baseline_matches": 1,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 1,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 1,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": 100.0,
      "favourite_hits": 1,
      "favourite_rate": 100.0,
      "price_basis": "last pre-match archive price",
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": [
       "Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.",
       "0 of 7 score forecasts named the exact score.",
       "The result implied by the named score was right in 1 of 1 match; the market favourite was right in 1 of the same match.",
       "A pre-match market favourite is known for 1 of 7 forecasts; the comparison uses only those.",
       "The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off).",
       "The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win)."
      ]
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 16,
      "priced": 16
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 15,
      "won": 2,
      "won_percent": "13.3",
      "implied_percent": "33.3",
      "left_out": 1,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Correct score",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 7,
        "implied_percent": "12.0"
       },
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 4,
        "implied_percent": "51.4"
       },
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 2,
        "implied_percent": "53.3"
       },
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 2,
        "implied_percent": "51.3"
       }
      ]
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "source_reported",
     "title": "Source-reported history",
     "explanation": "The time and the pick are known only from the source’s own history; it is the basis of the record check and never part of the evidenced total.",
     "predictions": 1,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    }
   ]
  },
  "live_alongside": null,
  "headline_record_ids": [
   "n-0246b1d163a6c850f8deb073",
   "n-1aec6ed54a87867ed9ad115d",
   "n-1e3051f75f83a92124a65f99",
   "n-25e9829f0949b5886b516348",
   "n-434011fa9b4e7ee289782749",
   "n-5afc7dcbc7c469035aa8a506",
   "n-60cc0eade2bdf8155eae0de2",
   "n-69bae3bc8d679ad1e76ff846",
   "n-76571d656cb62c65d39a540c",
   "n-853377a0f5b818a375e4743e",
   "n-90a2fece71db2dfedd849ab3",
   "n-a1b0e3e7ae795df8700d14b0",
   "n-b4ed67dbf5ea467cffb82d1a",
   "n-b9f917e148298f9b086bdf47",
   "n-bfd95560dc885e0a6f6ed747",
   "n-c3b3f3065799fb872b94c23e"
  ],
  "interval_low": null,
  "interval_high": null,
  "caption": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) · 100 points per pick · 17 August – 3 October 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under reconstruction method 1.1",
  "record_from": "2026-08-17",
  "record_to": "2026-10-03"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
  {
   "record_id": "n-1e3051f75f83a92124a65f99",
   "url": "/authors/ivan-erofeev/picks/5/#pick-n-1e3051f75f83a92124a65f99",
   "match": "India v Brazil",
   "match_url": "/football/matches/india-vs-brazil-2026-10-03/",
   "kickoff": "2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "International Soccer",
   "lead_hours": -223.2,
   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: India 0-6 Brazil",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "0-4",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": "8.2000",
   "published_at": null,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T21:12:39.129Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
   "record_part": "archived",
   "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "in_headline": true,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-1e3051f75f83a92124a65f99",
    "quote_text": "точный счёт 0:6 за 35.00",
    "fragment_from": 5448,
    "fragment_to": 5472,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "website",
     "url": "https://metaratings.ru/prognozy/futbol/indiya-braziliya-prognoz-i-stavki-na-tovarishcheskiy-match-3-oktyabrya-2026-goda/",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Ivan Erofeev",
     "authorship": "channel_owner",
     "media_from_ms": null,
     "bundle_id": "674f0ed575c01c6c0d11dcd037407ad8a46131bdeace0a9fcfac0e75da94cffb",
     "material_removed": false
    },
    "published_at": null,
    "detected_at": "2026-10-12T21:12:39.129Z",
    "executed_at": "2026-10-13T20:10:55.841Z",
    "statement_class": "score_forecast",
    "status": "too_late",
    "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
    "cause_code": null,
    "event": {
     "event_id": "s-1a7d6fbb6300",
     "display_name": "India v Brazil",
     "competition_name": "International Soccer",
     "starts_at": "2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z",
     "url": "/football/matches/india-vs-brazil-2026-10-03/",
     "scoreline": "0-4"
    },
    "market_label": "Correct score",
    "outcome_label": "India 0-6 Brazil",
    "odds_set": {
     "by_author": null,
     "our_snapshot": null,
     "our_snapshot_at": null,
     "our_snapshot_source": null,
     "closing": "8.2000",
     "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
    "result": "loss",
    "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000,
    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
    "executed_by": "ours",
    "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "withdrawn": false,
    "provenance": "restored_archive",
    "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
    "archive_snapshot_at": "2026-10-03T03:59:52.000Z",
    "dates": {
     "fragment_at": null,
     "fragment_basis": "no",
     "source_page_at": null,
     "detected_at": "2026-10-12T21:12:39.129Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": "2026-10-03T03:59:52.000Z",
     "flags": [
      "no_date"
     ],
     "flag_words": "The source states no publication date.",
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
    "origin_detail": null,
    "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
    "added_on": "Added to our record on 12 Oct 2026",
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "Correct score",
     "choice": "India 0-6 Brazil",
     "author_odds": null,
     "market_key": "correct_score_market",
     "choice_key": "0-6",
     "period": "match",
     "line": null,
     "subject": "goals_total",
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   "competition": "LaLiga",
   "lead_hours": -746.4,
   "market_code": "both_teams_score",
   "author_said": "Both teams to score: yes at 1.96",
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   "match": "Venezia v Fiorentina",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Serie A",
   "lead_hours": -746.6,
   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: Venezia 1-2 Fiorentina",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "2-4",
   "reason": "the article byline and the named tipster differ; this selection is kept out of individual totals",
   "reason_code": "attribution",
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   "published_at": "2026-09-10T18:07:49.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T21:23:53.347Z",
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  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-190911f0e6577175965c6eea",
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   "match": "Venezia v Fiorentina",
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   "kickoff": "2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Serie A",
   "lead_hours": -746.6,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: Fiorentina at 2.39",
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   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": "Won",
   "final_score": "2-4",
   "reason": "the article byline and the named tipster differ; this selection is kept out of individual totals",
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  },
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   "competition": "Serie A",
   "lead_hours": -746.6,
   "market_code": "total",
   "author_said": "Over/Under 2.5 goals: over 2.5 at 1.8",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": "Won",
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   "reason": "the article byline and the named tipster differ; this selection is kept out of individual totals",
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  {
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   "match": "Stade Rennais v Olympique de Marseille",
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   "kickoff": "2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Ligue 1",
   "lead_hours": -746.6,
   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: Stade Rennais 2-1 Olympique de Marseille",
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   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
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   "reason": "the article byline and the named tipster differ; this selection is kept out of individual totals",
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   "published_at": "2026-09-10T18:10:15.000Z",
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  },
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   "match": "Stade Rennais v Olympique de Marseille",
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   "kickoff": "2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Ligue 1",
   "lead_hours": -746.6,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: Stade Rennais at 2.1",
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   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": "Won",
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   "reason": "the article byline and the named tipster differ; this selection is kept out of individual totals",
   "reason_code": "attribution",
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  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-1d4e96e54ef241fffc614f88",
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   "match": "1. FC Union Berlin v FC Schalke 04",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2026-09-11T18:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Bundesliga",
   "lead_hours": -746.9,
   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: 1. FC Union Berlin 2-0 FC Schalke 04",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "1-3",
   "reason": "the article byline and the named tipster differ; this selection is kept out of individual totals",
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  },
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   "match": "1. FC Union Berlin v FC Schalke 04",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2026-09-11T18:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Bundesliga",
   "lead_hours": -746.9,
   "market_code": "1x2",
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   "group": "excluded",
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   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
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   "reason": "the article byline and the named tipster differ; this selection is kept out of individual totals",
   "reason_code": "attribution",
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   "record_id": "n-310c94fccf110d05c8e2dc4d",
   "url": "/authors/ivan-erofeev/picks/8/#pick-n-310c94fccf110d05c8e2dc4d",
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   "kickoff": "2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "UEFA Champions League",
   "lead_hours": -770.4,
   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: FC Bayern München 5-0 Bodø/Glimt",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": "Won",
   "final_score": "5-0",
   "reason": "the article byline and the named tipster differ; this selection is kept out of individual totals",
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   "published_at": "2026-09-09T10:46:09.000Z",
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     "subject": "goals_total",
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   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
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  },
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   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: Lech Poznań 3-1 AGF",
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   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: FC Kairat Almaty 1-0 Omonia Nicosia",
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   "competition": "UEFA Conference League",
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   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
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   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
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   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T22:19:47.545Z",
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   "kickoff": "2026-07-23T19:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "UEFA Conference League",
   "lead_hours": -1947.3,
   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: FK Partizan 3-0 UNA Strassen",
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   "competition": "UEFA Europa League",
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  },
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   "competition": "UEFA Europa League",
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   "competition": "UEFA Europa League",
   "lead_hours": -1948.4,
   "market_code": "both_teams_score",
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   "outcome": "Excluded",
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   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
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  },
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   "competition": "UEFA Europa League",
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   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
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   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "1-1",
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   "kickoff": "2026-07-23T17:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "UEFA Europa League",
   "lead_hours": -1949.4,
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   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
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  },
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   "competition": "UEFA Conference League",
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   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: Dinamo Tbilisi 1-1 Žalgiris",
   "quote": null,
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  },
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   "competition": "UEFA Conference League",
   "lead_hours": -1949.4,
   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: Zimbru 1-2 FC Noah",
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   "outcome": "Excluded",
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  },
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   "competition": "UEFA Champions League",
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   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
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   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T22:24:38.168Z",
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  },
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   "kickoff": "2026-07-21T16:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "UEFA Champions League",
   "lead_hours": -1998.4,
   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: Sabah FK 2-1 Kuopion Palloseura",
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  },
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   "competition": "UEFA Champions League",
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   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: Universitatea Cluj 1-1 Dynamo Kyiv",
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   "competition": "UEFA Conference League",
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   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
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   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
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   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: 1. FSV Mainz 05 2-1 SC Freiburg",
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   "market_code": "1x2",
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  },
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   "competition": "LaLiga",
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   "competition": "LaLiga",
   "lead_hours": -5250.6,
   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
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   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
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  },
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   "competition": "LaLiga",
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   "author_said": "1X2, match result: draw at 3.1",
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   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
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  },
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   "competition": "LaLiga",
   "lead_hours": -5250.6,
   "market_code": "both_teams_score",
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   "competition": "LaLiga",
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   "author_said": "Correct score: Sevilla 2-1 Rayo Vallecano",
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   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
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   "published_at": "2026-03-07T18:16:04.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-13T14:38:34.218Z",
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  },
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   "competition": "Bundesliga",
   "lead_hours": -5254.2,
   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: 1. FC Union Berlin 2-1 SV Werder Bremen",
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   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
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   "published_at": "2026-03-07T18:05:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-13T14:39:02.488Z",
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  },
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   "competition": "Bundesliga",
   "lead_hours": -5254.2,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: 1. FC Union Berlin at 2.3",
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  },
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   "competition": "LaLiga",
   "lead_hours": -5255.4,
   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: Getafe 1-2 Real Betis",
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   "published_at": "2026-03-07T18:15:04.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-13T14:38:43.053Z",
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  },
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   "kickoff": "2026-03-08T14:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Bundesliga",
   "lead_hours": -5256.2,
   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: FC St. Pauli 1-2 Eintracht Frankfurt",
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   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
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   "reason": "the article byline and the named tipster differ; this selection is kept out of individual totals",
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   "published_at": "2026-03-07T18:00:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-13T14:39:12.215Z",
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  },
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   "competition": "Bundesliga",
   "lead_hours": -5256.2,
   "market_code": "both_teams_score",
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  },
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   "kickoff": "2026-03-08T13:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "LaLiga",
   "lead_hours": -5257.6,
   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: Villarreal 3-1 Elche",
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   "group": "excluded",
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   "reason": "the article byline and the named tipster differ; this selection is kept out of individual totals",
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   "published_at": "2026-03-07T18:10:04.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-13T14:38:52.488Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
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  },
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   "match": "Athletic Club v FC Barcelona",
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   "kickoff": "2026-03-07T20:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "LaLiga",
   "lead_hours": -5274.7,
   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: Athletic Club 1-3 FC Barcelona",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
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   "author_said": "Correct score: Rayo Vallecano 0-0 Getafe",
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   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: Dynamo Kyiv 0-1 FC Noah",
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   "recorded_at": "2026-10-13T16:18:47.266Z",
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   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
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   "published_at": "2025-12-18T00:25:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-13T16:18:37.618Z",
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  },
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   "competition": "UEFA Conference League",
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   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: Zrinjski 1-0 SK Rapid",
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   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
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   "published_at": "2025-12-18T00:30:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-13T16:18:27.878Z",
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   "kickoff": "2025-12-18T20:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "UEFA Conference League",
   "lead_hours": -7172.3,
   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: NK Celje 3-0 Shelbourne",
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   "author_said": "Correct score: Legia Warszawa 2-1 AC Sparta Praha",
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   "competition": "UEFA Conference League",
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   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: Rijeka 1-1 AEK Larnaca",
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   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
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   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
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  },
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  },
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   "competition": "UEFA Conference League",
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   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: Shamrock Rovers 1-3 Shakhtar Donetsk",
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   "published_at": "2025-11-27T01:55:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-13T16:58:44.317Z",
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  },
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   "kickoff": "2025-11-27T20:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "UEFA Conference League",
   "lead_hours": -7677.0,
   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: Jagiellonia 3-1 Kuopion Palloseura",
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   "published_at": "2025-11-27T02:15:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-13T16:58:34.642Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
   "record_part": null,
   "record_part_words": null,
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": "Attribution under review",
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
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   "match": "Aston Villa v BSC Young Boys",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-11-27T17:45:00.000Z",
   "competition": "UEFA Europa League",
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   "author_said": "Correct score: Aston Villa 4-1 BSC Young Boys",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "2-1",
   "reason": "the article byline and the named tipster differ; this selection is kept out of individual totals",
   "reason_code": "attribution",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
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   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-11-26T16:20:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-13T17:00:52.445Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
   "record_part": null,
   "record_part_words": null,
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": "Attribution under review",
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-74ee76f4a7f69495e9078ff9",
   "url": null,
   "match": "AS Roma v FC Midtjylland",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-11-27T17:45:00.000Z",
   "competition": "UEFA Europa League",
   "lead_hours": -7679.3,
   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: AS Roma 1-1 FC Midtjylland",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "2-1",
   "reason": "the article byline and the named tipster differ; this selection is kept out of individual totals",
   "reason_code": "attribution",
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   "published_at": "2025-11-26T16:50:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-13T17:00:42.331Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
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   "record_part_words": null,
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": "Attribution under review",
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   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
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   "correction": null
  },
  {
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   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
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   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "точный счёт – 1:1 с коэффициентом 7,50",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
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   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-12-02T06:30:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-13T16:48:44.392Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
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  }
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 "lead_time": {
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  "picks": 856,
  "before_kickoff": 0,
  "after_kickoff": 856,
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  "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off."
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 "baseline": {
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  "picks": 0,
  "settled_picks_all": 0,
  "excluded": {
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   "favourite_not_settled": 0
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  "favourite_return_percent": null,
  "author_hit_rate": null,
  "favourite_hit_rate": null,
  "picked_favourite_share": null,
  "by_market": [],
  "return_over_time": [],
  "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out."
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   "/authors/ivan-erofeev/picks/35/",
   "/authors/ivan-erofeev/picks/36/",
   "/authors/ivan-erofeev/picks/37/",
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   "/authors/ivan-erofeev/picks/40/",
   "/authors/ivan-erofeev/picks/41/",
   "/authors/ivan-erofeev/picks/42/",
   "/authors/ivan-erofeev/picks/43/",
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  "groups": {
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 "calculator": null,
 "person": {
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    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
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    "text": "−72.17% on 16 settled picks across 7 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "First headline number for this record: 16 settled picks in the series “historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only”.",
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    "total_check": true,
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     },
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    "leagues": [
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      "league_markets": [
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      ]
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      "league_markets": [
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      "league_markets": [
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 "author_card": {
  "body": "Record tracked by Forecast Record since 11 October 2026 · 857 predictions · last change 13 October 2026",
  "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/ivan-erofeev/",
  "s": "2026-10-11",
  "prediction_count": 857,
  "refreshed_at": "2026-10-13",
  "html": "<a href=\"https://forecastrecord.com/authors/ivan-erofeev/\">Record tracked by Forecast Record since 11 October 2026 · 857 predictions · last change 13 October 2026</a>"
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 "trust": {
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  "settled_count": 16,
  "days": 48,
  "weeks": 4,
  "archive": false,
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    "min_distinct_weeks": 2,
    "no_violations": true
   },
   "established": {
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    "min_days": 90
   }
  },
  "show": true
 },
 "colleagues": null,
 "author_type": "Tipster",
 "data_changes": {
  "added_later": "16 records added on 12 Oct 2026 from archived copies. The current numbers include them; numbers published earlier, including the record before each match, do not change.",
  "records_corrected": 0,
  "last_correction_at": null,
  "corrections_url": "/corrections/"
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 "entity_id": "person:o-c8f484de48e4f0b55507d5fc",
 "source_revision": 159,
 "related": [
  {
   "url": "/cards/e-c8f484de48e4f0b55507d5fc-bank/",
   "name": "Bankroll card — Ivan Erofeev",
   "detail": null,
   "source_group": "cards"
  },
  {
   "url": "/cards/e-c8f484de48e4f0b55507d5fc-said-vs-happened/",
   "name": "Said → happened — Ivan Erofeev",
   "detail": null,
   "source_group": "cards"
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 ],
 "number_sets": [
  {
   "set": "profile.settled",
   "entity": "e-c8f484de48e4f0b55507d5fc",
   "value": 789,
   "where": "coverage",
   "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z"
  },
  {
   "set": "profile.predictions",
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   "value": 857,
   "where": "coverage",
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  },
  {
   "set": "profile.predictions",
   "entity": "e-c8f484de48e4f0b55507d5fc",
   "value": 857,
   "where": "picks",
   "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z"
  },
  {
   "set": "profile.part.live",
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   "value": 0,
   "where": null,
   "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z"
  },
  {
   "set": "profile.part.archived",
   "entity": "e-c8f484de48e4f0b55507d5fc",
   "value": 16,
   "where": "origin-archived",
   "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z"
  },
  {
   "set": "profile.part.found_after",
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