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 "heading": "Ibrahima Sarr: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "Verified record: 41 settled picks by Ibrahima Sarr recorded before kick-off across 19 matches, 10 Oct 2026 – 7 Nov 2026: +2.6% at our recorded market prices.",
 "first_paragraph": {
  "body": "Forecast Record recorded 41 settled live picks by Ibrahima Sarr before kick-off across 19 matches between 10 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned +2.6% on the total staked. Of the 148 predictions we hold for Ibrahima Sarr, 74 are linked to matches: 71 were recorded by us before kick-off and 3 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
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  "data": "2026-11-07",
  "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot",
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 "data_date": "2026-11-07T18:05:40.566Z",
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  "public_name": "Ibrahima Sarr",
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   "window_to": "2026-11-07",
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   "unit": "percent",
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   "n_bets": 41,
   "n_events": 19,
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   "ci_low": "-27.0524",
   "ci_high": "32.7505",
   "ci_method": "cluster_bootstrap",
   "price_source": "market_price",
   "coverage_percent": "100.00",
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  ],
  "top_ups": [],
  "rule": "When the balance falls below 100 points and no bets are open, 10000 points are added; the remaining balance is kept. While bets are open we wait for settlement.",
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 },
 "simulations": [],
 "completeness": {
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   {
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   {
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   },
   {
    "cause": "read after the match, from archived pages",
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   {
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  "predictions": 148,
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    "display_name": "At the author's stated price"
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  ],
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   },
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   },
   {
    "code_name": "after_match",
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   },
   {
    "code_name": "outside_coverage",
    "cause": "National-team matches",
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  ],
  "duplicates": 0,
  "junk": {
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  },
  "dictionary_url": "/methodology/#words"
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 "evidence_items": [
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   "quote_text": "Le marché 1xBet place Rennes en léger favori : 2,12 pour la victoire rennaise",
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   "quote_allowed": true,
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   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
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   "settlements": [],
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   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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   "quote_text": "Lepaul s’est fait une entorse à la cheville le 18 octobre contre le Paris FC.",
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "dates": {
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    "detected_at": "2026-11-06T17:08:33.772Z",
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-1ab2c99b7729955a6e8ccf3c",
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   "observation_id": "n-85a8d079b7f95dad68ae96ed",
   "url": "/authors/ibrahima-sarr/picks/7/#pick-n-85a8d079b7f95dad68ae96ed",
   "quote_text": "Notre pari principal va sur la double chance locale à 1.415.",
   "fragment_from": 864,
   "fragment_to": 924,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://african-football.com/prognoses/pronostic-frosinone-torino/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Ibrahima Sarr",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "5db5fd758b09ec9767b92f78edd37b4d6f7efb520e09358ddbc24fec96c94bf1",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": "2026-10-30T19:56:28.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-10-30T20:51:33.718Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "priced",
   "status": "recognised",
   "cause": "",
   "cause_code": "disputed_reading",
   "event": {
    "event_id": "s-665aa0e695c8",
    "display_name": "Frosinone — Torino",
    "competition_name": "Serie A",
    "starts_at": "2026-11-01T14:00:00.000Z",
    "url": "/football/matches/frosinone-vs-torino-2026-11-01/",
    "scoreline": "2-0",
    "condition": "finished"
   },
   "market_label": "Double chance",
   "outcome_label": "Frosinone or draw",
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": "1.415",
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": "win",
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "recorded_pre_match",
   "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": "2026-10-30T19:56:28.000Z",
    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2026-10-30T19:56:28.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-30T20:51:33.718Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "Double chance",
    "choice": "Frosinone or draw",
    "author_odds": "1.415",
    "market_key": "double_chance",
    "choice_key": "1X",
    "period": "match",
    "line": null,
    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "Double chance: Frosinone or draw at 1.42"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": "win",
    "scoreline": "2-0",
    "data_status": "measured",
    "cause": null,
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "Won: the final score was Frosinone 2-0 Torino."
   },
   "settlements": [
    {
     "operation_id": "6d7356c21a6045c4473f10d6b7777728db0854ab70fc344f29b1d5728685914b",
     "series_key": "author_price",
     "series_label": "At the author's stated price",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Double chance",
     "choice": "Frosinone or draw",
     "decimal_odds": null,
     "odds_role": null,
     "stake_hundredths": null,
     "status": "skipped",
     "status_text": "Not executed: ",
     "result": null,
     "result_words": null,
     "change_hundredths": null,
     "executed_at": null,
     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    },
    {
     "operation_id": "b0c8fc90cc01a91f0ab392735418bfad5a8d068df4a77536b0783338299a4575",
     "series_key": "market_price",
     "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Double chance",
     "choice": "Frosinone or draw",
     "decimal_odds": null,
     "odds_role": null,
     "stake_hundredths": null,
     "status": "skipped",
     "status_text": "Not executed: ",
     "result": null,
     "result_words": null,
     "change_hundredths": null,
     "executed_at": null,
     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    }
   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "prediction",
   "authorship": {
    "material_author": "Ibrahima Sarr",
    "publisher": "african-football.com",
    "forecaster": "Ibrahima Sarr",
    "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
    "basis": null,
    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
    "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://african-football.com/prognoses/pronostic-frosinone-torino/",
    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
    "verdict_by": null,
    "verdict_line": null
   },
   "correction": null
  }
 ],
 "excluded_from_feed": {
  "ads": 3,
  "service": 0,
  "ruleset_version": "3"
 },
 "standing": null,
 "retro": null,
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "threshold_percent": "5",
  "rows": [
   {
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "basis_words": "our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off)",
    "basis_short": "Our market price when we first recorded the pick",
    "compared": 41,
    "above": 0,
    "above_share_percent": "0.0",
    "below": 0,
    "within": 41,
    "median_difference_percent": "0.6",
    "not_comparable": 0,
    "disputed": 0,
    "status": "calculated"
   }
  ],
  "examples": [],
  "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way."
 },
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "african-football.com",
   "url": "https://african-football.com/prognoses/pronostic-rennes-lille/"
  },
  "observed_from": "2026-10-09",
  "observed_to": "2026-11-06",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "market_price",
  "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price",
  "restored": false,
  "headline_kind": "live_snapshot",
  "headline_part": "live",
  "settled_picks": 41,
  "matches": 19,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": 10771,
  "staked_hundredths": 410000,
  "return_percent": "2.63",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2026-10-10",
  "period_to": "2026-11-07",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "2.2",
  "short_history": false,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record recorded 41 settled live picks by Ibrahima Sarr before kick-off across 19 matches between 10 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned +2.6% on the total staked. Of the 148 predictions we hold for Ibrahima Sarr, 74 are linked to matches: 71 were recorded by us before kick-off and 3 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled live picks",
    "value": "41",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "19",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "+107.71 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "value": "+2.6%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": "95% interval −27.1% to +32.8%"
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [
   {
    "date": "2026-10-10",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -30000,
    "n": 3
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-12",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -50000,
    "n": 5
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-13",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -44286,
    "n": 6
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-14",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -61286,
    "n": 9
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-17",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -57364,
    "n": 10
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-20",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -41364,
    "n": 12
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-22",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -27464,
    "n": 15
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-26",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -11264,
    "n": 17
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-27",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 736,
    "n": 18
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-29",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 2436,
    "n": 21
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-01",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -16564,
    "n": 25
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-03",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -13064,
    "n": 28
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-04",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -12900,
    "n": 31
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-05",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 16221,
    "n": 37
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-06",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 14671,
    "n": 39
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-07",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 10771,
    "n": 41
   }
  ],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": {
    "part": "live",
    "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.",
    "settled_picks": 41,
    "matches": 19,
    "match_dates": 16,
    "period_from": "2026-10-10",
    "period_to": "2026-11-07",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": 10771,
    "low": {
     "date": "2026-10-14",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -61286,
     "after_picks": 9
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2026-11-05",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 16221,
     "after_picks": 37
    },
    "line_drawn": true,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2026-10-10",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -30000,
      "n": 3,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-12",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -50000,
      "n": 5,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-13",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -44286,
      "n": 6,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-14",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -61286,
      "n": 9,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-17",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -57364,
      "n": 10,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-20",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -41364,
      "n": 12,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-22",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -27464,
      "n": 15,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-26",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -11264,
      "n": 17,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-27",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 736,
      "n": 18,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-29",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 2436,
      "n": 21,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-01",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -16564,
      "n": 25,
      "picks": 4
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-03",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -13064,
      "n": 28,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-04",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -12900,
      "n": 31,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-05",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 16221,
      "n": 37,
      "picks": 6
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-06",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 14671,
      "n": 39,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-07",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 10771,
      "n": 41,
      "picks": 2
     }
    ]
   },
   "archived": null
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record recorded 41 settled live picks by Ibrahima Sarr before kick-off across 19 matches between 10 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned +2.6% on the total staked. Of the 148 predictions we hold for Ibrahima Sarr, 74 are linked to matches: 71 were recorded by us before kick-off and 3 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/ibrahima-sarr/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "2.2"
  },
  "origin": {
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   "predictions": 148,
   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 74,
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   "proven_checked": 71,
   "proven_measured": 41,
   "proven_dates": 21,
   "parts": [
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     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 71,
     "checked": 71,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 41,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 19,
      "net_points_hundredths": 10771,
      "staked_hundredths": 410000,
      "return_percent": "2.63",
      "interval_low": "-27.05",
      "interval_high": "32.75",
      "interval_note": null,
      "period_from": "2026-10-10",
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      "method_version": "2.2",
      "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0",
      "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.1",
      "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 8
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "author_price",
       "picks": 41,
       "return_main_percent": "2.63",
       "return_other_percent": "3.53",
       "settled_excluding_void": 41,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 10771,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 14460,
       "period_from": "2026-10-10",
       "period_to": "2026-11-07"
      },
      {
       "price": "Closing price",
       "series_code": "closing_live",
       "picks": 35,
       "return_main_percent": "8.81",
       "return_other_percent": "7.84",
       "settled_excluding_void": 35,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 30821,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 27448,
       "period_from": "2026-10-10",
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      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
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      "priced": 41
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 41,
      "won": 24,
      "won_percent": "58.5",
      "implied_percent": "58.8",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 8,
        "picks": 13,
        "implied_percent": "49.1"
       },
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 6,
        "picks": 13,
        "implied_percent": "57.5"
       },
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 7,
        "picks": 8,
        "implied_percent": "62.0"
       },
       {
        "market": "Double chance",
        "won": 3,
        "picks": 7,
        "implied_percent": "75.5"
       }
      ]
     },
     "reviewed_after": {
      "predictions": 19,
      "right": 10,
      "wrong": 9,
      "other": 0
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
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      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
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      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 3,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
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      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
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      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    }
   ]
  },
  "live_alongside": null,
  "headline_record_ids": [
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  "caption": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price · 100 points per pick · 10 October – 7 November 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under method v2.2",
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   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Notre pari principal va sur la victoire de Vido 99 à 1.61.",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2026-09-29T15:09:06.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:28:38.777Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-15c05fda957b85fe9e8e97ba",
   "url": "/authors/ibrahima-sarr/picks/2/#pick-n-15c05fda957b85fe9e8e97ba",
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Pari recommandé — Moins de 2,5 buts @1.475 (risque modéré).",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2026-09-17T22:37:21.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T16:38:38.799Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "record_part": "unlinked",
   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": {
    "at": "2026-10-14T02:00:58.908Z",
    "field": "line sign",
    "reason": "Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and the outcome is worked out on it. This pick was never executed, so no number changes.",
    "version": 2,
    "url": "/corrections/#c-f1b2048399e9",
    "text": "Corrected on 14 October 2026: Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and"
   },
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-15c05fda957b85fe9e8e97ba",
    "quote_text": "Pari recommandé — Moins de 2,5 buts @1.475 (risque modéré).",
    "fragment_from": 4823,
    "fragment_to": 4882,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "website",
     "url": "https://african-football.com/prognoses/pronostic-kruger-united-stellenbosch/",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Ibrahima Sarr",
     "authorship": "channel_owner",
     "media_from_ms": null,
     "bundle_id": "97669c621c2e34888398055b1cf5fd1e99109b7de2bfc116eba5b9367878a587",
     "material_removed": false
    },
    "published_at": "2026-09-17T22:37:21.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-09T16:38:38.799Z",
    "executed_at": null,
    "statement_class": "priced",
    "status": "not_supported",
    "cause": "",
    "cause_code": "not_supported",
    "event": null,
    "market_label": null,
    "outcome_label": null,
    "odds_set": {
     "by_author": null,
     "our_snapshot": null,
     "our_snapshot_at": null,
     "our_snapshot_source": null,
     "closing": null,
     "closing_source": null
    },
    "stake_hundredths": null,
    "result": null,
    "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
    "executed_by": null,
    "series_label": null,
    "withdrawn": false,
    "dates": {
     "fragment_at": "2026-09-17T22:37:21.000Z",
     "fragment_basis": "page",
     "source_page_at": "2026-09-17T22:37:21.000Z",
     "detected_at": "2026-10-09T16:38:38.799Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [],
     "flag_words": null,
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "source_stated_date",
    "origin_detail": "no_match_linked",
    "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
    "added_on": null,
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": null,
    "author_claim_outcome": {
     "result": null,
     "scoreline": null,
     "data_status": "unknown",
     "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
    },
    "settlements": [],
    "corrections": [
     {
      "at": "2026-10-14T02:00:58.908Z",
      "field_name": "line sign",
      "was": "Over/Under −2.5 goals · under −2.5",
      "now": "Over/Under 2.5 goals · under 2.5",
      "cause": "Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and the outcome is worked out on it. This pick was never executed, so no number changes."
     }
    ],
    "funnel_stage": "prediction",
    "authorship": null,
    "correction": {
     "at": "2026-10-14T02:00:58.908Z",
     "field": "line sign",
     "reason": "Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and the outcome is worked out on it. This pick was never executed, so no number changes.",
     "version": 2,
     "url": "/corrections/#c-f1b2048399e9",
     "text": "Corrected on 14 October 2026: Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and"
    },
    "choice_words": "a pick"
   }
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-70f7f6955ec875d29a7eb4cd",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Pari valeur — Les deux équipes marquent : Oui @2.025 (risque faible).",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2026-09-17T22:37:21.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T16:38:38.799Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "record_part": "unlinked",
   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-39e962165db419863e1f25bf",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Notre pari principal se porte sur la double chance en faveur des locaux, à 1.56.",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2026-09-17T22:37:21.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T16:38:38.799Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "record_part": "unlinked",
   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-467bb308959cf9101d8f8645",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Total plus de 2.5 buts @1.875",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "national-team match (Nations League, qualifiers, continental cups)",
   "reason_code": "outside_coverage",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2026-08-14T16:16:46.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T16:38:39.127Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "record_part": "unlinked",
   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-f035ab2769581d93f06c6a17",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Double chance 1X @1.22",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "national-team match (Nations League, qualifiers, continental cups)",
   "reason_code": "outside_coverage",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2026-08-14T16:16:46.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T16:38:39.127Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "record_part": "unlinked",
   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-2c7bc2c09b3204a1ea767b12",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Victoire Cameroun @1.92",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "national-team match (Nations League, qualifiers, continental cups)",
   "reason_code": "outside_coverage",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2026-08-14T16:16:46.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T16:38:39.127Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "record_part": "unlinked",
   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-c8bcecd7784fd8e67eca7413",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Double chance X2 @1.327",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "ambiguous",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2026-07-05T23:30:10.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T17:43:38.463Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "record_part": "unlinked",
   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-19555db9dc210b246c564e32",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Moins de 2,5 buts @1.606",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "ambiguous",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2026-07-05T23:30:10.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T17:43:38.463Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "record_part": "unlinked",
   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-659ef8e7cc05c64c6a84d632",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Victoire Colombie @2.333",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "ambiguous",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2026-07-05T23:30:10.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T17:43:38.463Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "record_part": "unlinked",
   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  }
 ],
 "lead_time": {
  "contract_version": 1,
  "threshold_hours": 2.0,
  "picks": 71,
  "before_kickoff": 71,
  "after_kickoff": 0,
  "at_least_2h": 71,
  "share_2h_plus": 100.0,
  "median_hours": 46.4,
  "min_hours": 19.3,
  "max_hours": 59.2,
  "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off."
 },
 "baseline": {
  "contract_version": 1,
  "series_code": "market_price",
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  "picks": 29,
  "settled_picks_all": 41,
  "excluded": {
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   "no_recorded_line": 5,
   "favourite_not_settled": 0
  },
  "staked_hundredths": 290000,
  "author_net_hundredths": 92264,
  "favourite_net_hundredths": 65664,
  "difference_hundredths": 26600,
  "author_return_percent": 31.82,
  "favourite_return_percent": 22.64,
  "author_hit_rate": 72.4,
  "favourite_hit_rate": 69.0,
  "picked_favourite_share": 82.8,
  "by_market": [
   {
    "market_code": "1x2",
    "picks": 12,
    "staked_hundredths": 120000,
    "author_net_hundredths": 41900,
    "favourite_net_hundredths": 66300,
    "author_hits": 8,
    "favourite_hits": 9,
    "picked_favourite": 11,
    "author_return_percent": 34.92,
    "favourite_return_percent": 55.25
   },
   {
    "market_code": "total",
    "picks": 9,
    "staked_hundredths": 90000,
    "author_net_hundredths": 11072,
    "favourite_net_hundredths": 7472,
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    "favourite_hits": 6,
    "picked_favourite": 7,
    "author_return_percent": 12.3,
    "favourite_return_percent": 8.3
   },
   {
    "market_code": "both_teams_score",
    "picks": 8,
    "staked_hundredths": 80000,
    "author_net_hundredths": 39292,
    "favourite_net_hundredths": -8108,
    "author_hits": 7,
    "favourite_hits": 5,
    "picked_favourite": 6,
    "author_return_percent": 49.12,
    "favourite_return_percent": -10.13
   }
  ],
  "return_over_time": [
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": -10000,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -10000
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": -20000,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -20000
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": -14286,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -14286
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": -24286,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -24286
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   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": -21286,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -21286
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-17T16:30:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": -17364,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -17364
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-20T19:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": -3364,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -3364
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-20T19:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": -1364,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -1364
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 10136,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -11364
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 22536,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -21364
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-26T18:30:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 34036,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -9864
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-26T18:30:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 38736,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -5164
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-27T17:30:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 50736,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 6836
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-29T17:30:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 55436,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 11536
   },
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    "kickoff": "2026-10-29T17:30:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 62436,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 18536
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-11-01T14:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 52436,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 26436
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-11-01T14:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 63436,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 37436
   },
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    "kickoff": "2026-11-01T17:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 53436,
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   },
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    "kickoff": "2026-11-01T17:00:00.000Z",
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    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 41836
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-11-03T17:45:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 54936,
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   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-11-04T17:45:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 59544,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 57944
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-11-04T17:45:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 65100,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 63500
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-11-05T17:45:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 77000,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 75400
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-11-05T17:45:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 67000,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 65400
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 "title_tag": "Ibrahima Sarr Predictions: Verified Record, Results and Sources",
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    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "c7fb2ac07a063070783b1d8dfdebec59fc7dbde95efdb4699226ea30da7fe5a5",
    "text": "−39.49% on 12 settled picks across 5 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-25.4",
    "return_percent": "-22.42",
    "settled_picks": 14,
    "matches": 6,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
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    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "8b434e6c5c30ff7b2825c30c86f901119377ef99011197ad753d63b419aafa20",
    "text": "−22.42% on 14 settled picks across 6 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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    "removed": 0,
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   },
   "correction_id": null
  },
  {
   "id": "zc-f508df56c210a585dad0",
   "at": "2026-10-22T22:37:17.307Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-22.6",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-22.5",
   "url": "/authors/ibrahima-sarr/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
   "category_words": "Coverage extended",
   "before": {
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    "return_percent": "-68.10",
    "settled_picks": 9,
    "matches": 4,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "b0af88e307489867b58ca1b318e188b20e84ebf44e4741dcb556de48c3632835",
    "text": "−612.86 points on 9 settled picks across 4 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-22.6",
    "return_percent": "-39.49",
    "settled_picks": 12,
    "matches": 5,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
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    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "c7fb2ac07a063070783b1d8dfdebec59fc7dbde95efdb4699226ea30da7fe5a5",
    "text": "−39.49% on 12 settled picks across 5 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 3 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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    "removed": 0,
    "changed": 0
   },
   "correction_id": null
  },
  {
   "id": "zc-d9e9a5470e13d7ad85cc",
   "at": "2026-10-22T13:04:00.441Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-22.4",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-22.3",
   "url": "/authors/ibrahima-sarr/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
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   "before": {
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    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "d6226a8116ce4806534d36b91b30603f7290a0d8c3fb4fe87e24db1630661d31",
    "text": "−312.86 points on 6 settled picks across 3 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-22.4",
    "return_percent": "-68.10",
    "settled_picks": 9,
    "matches": 4,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "b0af88e307489867b58ca1b318e188b20e84ebf44e4741dcb556de48c3632835",
    "text": "−612.86 points on 9 settled picks across 4 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 3 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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    "removed": 0,
    "changed": 0
   },
   "correction_id": null
  },
  {
   "id": "zc-3ccb27fb40ac1767b939",
   "at": "2026-10-14T22:11:18.139Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-14.3",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-14.2",
   "url": "/authors/ibrahima-sarr/",
   "category": "new_results",
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   "before": {
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    "return_percent": "-60.72",
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    "matches": 2,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
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    "composition_hash": "72f5adec8b19115a4de7a9c7696c64d9b799e416c508261bb33569867b5c7a7a",
    "text": "−242.86 points on 4 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-14.3",
    "return_percent": "-52.14",
    "settled_picks": 6,
    "matches": 3,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "d6226a8116ce4806534d36b91b30603f7290a0d8c3fb4fe87e24db1630661d31",
    "text": "−312.86 points on 6 settled picks across 3 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "2 new settled picks from matches played after the previous data version.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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    "removed": 0,
    "changed": 0
   },
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  },
  {
   "id": "zc-912d206f6556e8556aa4",
   "at": "2026-10-13T03:16:44.586Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-13.2",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-13.1",
   "url": "/authors/ibrahima-sarr/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
   "category_words": "Coverage extended",
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    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
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    "composition_hash": "d188a2f9876aac04cf93f375d3bf56582bde2f5c87ca933de068c3a2c8b6d9bc",
    "text": "−300.00 points on 3 settled picks across 1 match · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-13.2",
    "return_percent": "-60.72",
    "settled_picks": 4,
    "matches": 2,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "72f5adec8b19115a4de7a9c7696c64d9b799e416c508261bb33569867b5c7a7a",
    "text": "−242.86 points on 4 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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    "removed": 0,
    "changed": 0
   },
   "correction_id": null
  },
  {
   "id": "zc-6b8183b0a84d9bb311f6",
   "at": "2026-10-10T23:53:02.873Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-10.4",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-10.3",
   "url": "/authors/ibrahima-sarr/",
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    "composition_hash": "d188a2f9876aac04cf93f375d3bf56582bde2f5c87ca933de068c3a2c8b6d9bc",
    "text": "−300.00 points on 3 settled picks across 1 match · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "First headline number for this record: 3 settled picks in the series “independent odds snapshot”.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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   },
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  }
 ],
 "counts_by_slice": {
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   {
    "code": "live",
    "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
    "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
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    "total_check": true,
    "market_list": [
     {
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     },
     {
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        "period_from": "2026-10-29",
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     },
     {
      "code_name": "UEFA Champions League",
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      "league_markets": [
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        "period_from": "2026-10-14",
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        "small_sample": true,
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       },
       {
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        "small_sample": true,
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        "code_name": "total",
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        "period_from": "2026-10-14",
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        "small_sample": true,
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       },
       {
        "code_name": "double_chance",
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      ]
     },
     {
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      ]
     },
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       },
       {
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        "small_sample": true,
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      ]
     },
     {
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       },
       {
        "code_name": "total",
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        "period_from": "2026-10-26",
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        "small_sample": true,
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      ]
     },
     {
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