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 "heading": "Hugo Stenmark: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "Verified record: 10 settled picks by Hugo Stenmark recorded before kick-off across 10 matches, 11 Oct 2026 – 5 Nov 2026.",
 "first_paragraph": {
  "body": "Forecast Record recorded 10 settled live picks by Hugo Stenmark before kick-off across 10 matches between 11 October and 5 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −15.1% on the total staked. Of the 32 predictions we hold for Hugo Stenmark, 24 are linked to matches: 22 were recorded by us before kick-off and 2 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
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  "data": "2026-11-07",
  "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot",
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 "data_date": "2026-11-07T18:13:48.275Z",
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 "modules": {
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 "entity": {
  "id": "e-d37fbca029ff86d72a73aef6",
  "public_name": "Hugo Stenmark",
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  "observation_period": {
   "since": "2026-10-11",
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   "amount": "-15.0670",
   "unit": "percent",
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   "n_bets": 10,
   "n_events": 10,
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   "ci_low": "-81.3790",
   "ci_high": "55.0540",
   "ci_method": "cluster_bootstrap",
   "price_source": "market_price",
   "coverage_percent": "70.00",
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   "methodology_version": "2.2",
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   "quote_text": "Inlägget SPELTIPS 7/11 inför Valencia – Real Madrid: Statistiken har sagt sitt dök först upp på Speltips.se.",
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   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
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   "quote_text": "Valencia tar emot Real Madrid på lördag i en drabbning",
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  {
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   "quote_text": "Speltips: Chelsea Över 1.5 Mål | Odds: @1.90",
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   "event": {
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    "display_name": "Sunderland — Chelsea",
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    "url": "/football/matches/sunderland-vs-chelsea-2026-11-08/",
    "scoreline": null,
    "condition": "scheduled"
   },
   "market_label": "Team goals over/under 1.5",
   "outcome_label": "Chelsea over 1.5",
   "odds_set": {
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   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "unknown",
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   "executed_by": "ours",
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "recorded_pre_match",
   "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
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    "choice_key": "2-over",
    "period": "match",
    "line": "1.5",
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "kick-off 8 November 2026, 14:00 UTC",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "Pending: kick-off 8 November 2026, 14:00 UTC."
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    "forecaster": "Hugo Stenmark",
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   "quote_text": "Med en modig offensiv lär Fiorentina trycka på, men deras ihåliga försvarslinje kommer oundvikligen",
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   "quote_text": "Arsenal, de regerande Premier League-mästarna, välkomn",
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
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   "quote_text": "Under 3.5 mål i matchen!",
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   "source_info": {
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 ],
 "excluded_from_feed": {
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 "standing": null,
 "retro": null,
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": {
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    "basis_words": "our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off)",
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    "compared": 9,
    "above": 0,
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  "examples": [],
  "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way."
 },
 "record_summary": {
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  "net_points_hundredths": -15067,
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  "status": "calculated",
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  "sentence": "Forecast Record recorded 10 settled live picks by Hugo Stenmark before kick-off across 10 matches between 11 October and 5 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −15.1% on the total staked. Of the 32 predictions we hold for Hugo Stenmark, 24 are linked to matches: 22 were recorded by us before kick-off and 2 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
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   {
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    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 31433,
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   {
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   {
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   {
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   {
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    "steps": [
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     {
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      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 11433,
      "n": 5,
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     {
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      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 1433,
      "n": 6,
      "picks": 1
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     {
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      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -8567,
      "n": 7,
      "picks": 1
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     {
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      "picks": 1
     },
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  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record recorded 10 settled live picks by Hugo Stenmark before kick-off across 10 matches between 11 October and 5 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −15.1% on the total staked. Of the 32 predictions we hold for Hugo Stenmark, 24 are linked to matches: 22 were recorded by us before kick-off and 2 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/hugo-stenmark/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
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   "parts": [
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 },
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    "text": "−85.67 points on 7 settled picks across 7 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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    "text": "+49.33 points on 8 settled picks across 8 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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    "text": "−85.67 points on 7 settled picks across 7 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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    "text": "+214.33 points on 4 settled picks across 4 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
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    "text": "+164.33 points on 2 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
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    "text": "+314.33 points on 3 settled picks across 3 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
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   "url": "/authors/hugo-stenmark/",
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    "composition_hash": "cd6f21e30c051bb6c62e098732f34402c479ac29b17a59b0aa199ab8d46a7a32",
    "text": "+78.12 points on 1 settled pick across 1 match · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
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    "return_percent": "82.17",
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    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "0b7a121cc7bb2f2917bf59ac36d50950d640c05fcd84df8a366f63b205b95577",
    "text": "+164.33 points on 2 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous data version.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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   },
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  },
  {
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   "at": "2026-10-11T21:54:36.315Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-11.8",
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   "url": "/authors/hugo-stenmark/",
   "category": "method_changed",
   "category_words": "Method changed",
   "before": null,
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    "return_percent": "78.12",
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    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "cd6f21e30c051bb6c62e098732f34402c479ac29b17a59b0aa199ab8d46a7a32",
    "text": "+78.12 points on 1 settled pick across 1 match · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Method 2.2 (11 October 2026): the live market price of a pick is now the price at the moment we first recorded it (median of bookmakers in our price feed, quote no older than 5 minutes; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, before kick-off), not the price when our checks admitted it. Picks recorded before kick-off but checked after it are now settled the same way; picks with no price at that moment have no return. First headline number for this record: 1 settled pick.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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 ],
 "current_predictions": {
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    "match": "Sunderland v Chelsea",
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    "kickoff": "2026-11-08T14:00:00.000Z",
    "competition": "Premier League",
    "author_said": "Team goals over/under 1.5: Chelsea over 1.5 at 1.9",
    "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
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   },
   {
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    "url": "/authors/hugo-stenmark/picks/3/#pick-n-0961c11a476c0fa744214e00",
    "match": "Fiorentina v Juventus",
    "match_url": "/football/matches/fiorentina-vs-juventus-2026-11-08/",
    "kickoff": "2026-11-08T19:45:00.000Z",
    "competition": "Serie A",
    "author_said": "Both teams to score: yes at 1.62",
    "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "recorded_at": "2026-11-06T15:09:49.192Z",
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  ]
 },
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     },
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     },
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    ],
    "leagues": [
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      "code_name": "UEFA Europa League",
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      "url": "/football/competitions/uefa-europa-league/",
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      "period_from": "2026-10-22",
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      "league_markets": [
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        "period_from": "2026-10-22",
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        "average_odds": "1.71",
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       },
       {
        "code_name": "both_teams_score_and_result",
        "in_words": "Result and both teams to score",
        "settled_picks": 1,
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        "period_from": "2026-11-05",
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        "small_sample": true,
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       },
       {
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       }
      ]
     },
     {
      "code_name": "Ligue 1",
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      "settled_picks": 2,
      "won": 0,
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      "return_percent": "-100.0",
      "period_from": "2026-10-26",
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      "small_sample": true,
      "average_odds": "2.15",
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      "league_markets": [
       {
        "code_name": "total",
        "in_words": "Over/under goals",
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        "period_from": "2026-10-30",
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        "small_sample": true,
        "average_odds": "1.88",
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       },
       {
        "code_name": "both_teams_score_and_result",
        "in_words": "Result and both teams to score",
        "settled_picks": 1,
        "won": 0,
        "void": 0,
        "net_points_hundredths": -10000,
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