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They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.", "page_category": "author" }, "restrictions": { "name_withdrawn": false, "tracker_number": null, "withdrawn_quotes": [], "removed_at": null, "cause": null, "suspended_records": [], "withdrawal_log_number": 0 }, "page_links": { "methodology": "/methodology/", "right_of_reply": "/right-of-reply/", "source_coverage": "/coverage/", "corrections_log": "/corrections/", "api": "/api/", "claim": "/claim/" }, "entity": { "id": "e-62f0e651eadbab92f74963c1", "public_name": "Goal Wizard", "tracker_number": 5915, "status": "active", "inactive_since": null, "verified_creator": false, "observation_period": { "since": "2026-10-25", "until": "2026-11-07" }, "platform_list": [ { "medium": "website", "handle": null, "url": null, "link_confirmed": false, "show": true } ], "comment": null }, "headline_number": { "metric": { "metric_id": "p-e-62f0e651eadbab92f74963c1-roi-market-price-90d-z99", 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978350, "profit_hundredths": -21650, "outcome_id": "ish-a7e2a03bdc04e98a40d931d9" }, { "at": "2026-11-07T10:28:42.350Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 968350, "profit_hundredths": -31650, "outcome_id": "ish-64f71e75baf17fb75a815c89" }, { "at": "2026-11-07T10:28:42.390Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 958350, "profit_hundredths": -41650, "outcome_id": "ish-7c0c7ce420fa01548a83da40" }, { "at": "2026-11-07T10:28:42.405Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 960237, "profit_hundredths": -39763, "outcome_id": "ish-5f51279e1df5b4f1cef1eac0" }, { "at": "2026-11-07T11:05:31.451Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 965446, "profit_hundredths": -34554, "outcome_id": "ish-3724e7cf62f4fb5808db0bfd" }, { "at": "2026-11-07T11:05:31.481Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 967333, "profit_hundredths": -32667, "outcome_id": "ish-5b7a2021737b74baa2fc6fd8" }, { "at": "2026-11-07T11:05:31.504Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 971374, "profit_hundredths": -28626, "outcome_id": "ish-c41ca2b44f74cb205f1368b8" }, { "at": "2026-11-07T11:05:31.529Z", 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"quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "telegram", "url": "https://t.me/Goal_Wizard/3519", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Goal Wizard", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "bdeea4e9ec0ad2cffcf616c9605854e43086525ba135691588192327fa970155", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-11-07T18:52:27.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-07T18:58:22.490Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-11-07T18:52:27.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", 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true, "source_info": { "medium": "telegram", "url": "https://t.me/Goal_Wizard/3519", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Goal Wizard", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "bdeea4e9ec0ad2cffcf616c9605854e43086525ba135691588192327fa970155", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-11-07T18:52:27.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-07T18:58:22.490Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "unpriced", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-11-07T18:52:27.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": 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The time of publication is evidenced (the platform's own timestamp: 6). Each is priced at the market price in our own price history at that moment; the author’s own stated price, where given, is a separate line. These picks are never mixed with the record kept before kick-off and do not enter rankings or the points bankroll. Our price history starts on 26 September 2026; for earlier picks the price at publication is unknown, and the closing price is shown on its own line, outside this series.", "series_list": [ { "code_name": "publication_market_price", "display_name": "Market price at the evidenced time of publication", "n": 3, "roi": "-10.0067", "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "price_unknown": 3, "waiting": 0, "data_status": "calculated", "methodology_version": "late-1.0" } ], "methodology_version": "late-1.0" }, "price_vs_market": null, "record_summary": { "contract_version": "1", "entity_type": "person", "entity_words": "Individual author", "source": { "name": "t.me", "url": "https://t.me/Goal_Wizard/3519" }, "observed_from": "2026-10-25", "observed_to": "2026-11-07", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "state": "settled", "series_code": "market_price", "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price", "restored": false, "headline_kind": "live_snapshot", "headline_part": "live", "settled_picks": 40, "matches": 20, "void": 1, "net_points_hundredths": -23553, "staked_hundredths": 390000, "return_percent": "-6.04", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "period_from": "2026-10-25", "period_to": "2026-11-06", "status": "calculated", "method_version": "2.2", "short_history": false, "reason": null, "reasons": [], "sentence": "Forecast Record recorded 40 settled live picks by Goal Wizard before kick-off across 20 matches between 25 October and 6 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −6.0% on the total staked. Of the 87 predictions we hold for Goal Wizard, 83 are linked to matches: 74 were recorded by us before kick-off and 9 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "numbers": [ { "label": "Settled live picks", "value": "40", "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick", "note": "1 void" }, { "label": "Matches", "value": "20", "anchor": "/methodology/#match", "note": null }, { "label": "Net result", "value": "−235.53 points", "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement", "note": "100 points per pick" }, { "label": "Return at our recorded market price", "value": "−6.0%", "anchor": "/methodology/#roi", "note": "95% interval −28.4% to +16.4%" } ], "limitations": [], "other_series": [], "return_over_time": [ { "date": "2026-10-25", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -8501, "n": 2 }, { "date": "2026-10-26", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -4548, "n": 4 }, { "date": "2026-10-27", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 3875, "n": 6 }, { "date": "2026-10-28", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 5638, "n": 10 }, { "date": "2026-10-29", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 17973, "n": 14 }, { "date": "2026-10-30", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 21052, "n": 16 }, { "date": "2026-10-31", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -7061, "n": 20 }, { "date": "2026-11-01", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -21790, "n": 24 }, { "date": "2026-11-02", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -49580, "n": 28 }, { "date": "2026-11-03", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -58356, "n": 30 }, { "date": "2026-11-04", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -48948, "n": 34 }, { "date": "2026-11-05", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -29376, "n": 38 }, { "date": "2026-11-06", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -23553, "n": 40 } ], "return_over_time_parts": { "live": { "part": "live", "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "x_axis": "match_date", "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.", "settled_picks": 40, "matches": 20, "match_dates": 13, "period_from": "2026-10-25", "period_to": "2026-11-06", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "final_points_hundredths": -23553, "low": { "date": "2026-11-03", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -58356, "after_picks": 30 }, "high": { "date": "2026-10-30", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 21052, "after_picks": 16 }, "line_drawn": true, "steps": [ { "date": "2026-10-25", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -8501, "n": 2, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2026-10-26", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -4548, "n": 4, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2026-10-27", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 3875, "n": 6, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2026-10-28", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 5638, "n": 10, "picks": 4 }, { "date": "2026-10-29", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 17973, "n": 14, "picks": 4 }, { "date": "2026-10-30", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 21052, "n": 16, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2026-10-31", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -7061, "n": 20, "picks": 4 }, { "date": "2026-11-01", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -21790, "n": 24, "picks": 4 }, { "date": "2026-11-02", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -49580, "n": 28, "picks": 4 }, { "date": "2026-11-03", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -58356, "n": 30, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2026-11-04", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -48948, "n": 34, "picks": 4 }, { "date": "2026-11-05", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -29376, "n": 38, "picks": 4 }, { "date": "2026-11-06", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -23553, "n": 40, "picks": 2 } ] }, "archived": null }, "author_response": null, "cite": { "text": "Forecast Record recorded 40 settled live picks by Goal Wizard before kick-off across 20 matches between 25 October and 6 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −6.0% on the total staked. Of the 87 predictions we hold for Goal Wizard, 83 are linked to matches: 74 were recorded by us before kick-off and 9 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/goal-wizard/", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "2.2" }, "origin": { "contract_version": "1", "predictions": 87, "under_review": 0, "no_match_linked": 4, "proven_predictions": 74, "proven_checked": 71, "proven_measured": 63, "proven_dates": 14, "parts": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.", "predictions": 74, "checked": 71, "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "series_code": "market_price", "main": { "settled_picks": 40, "void": 1, "matches": 20, "net_points_hundredths": -23553, "staked_hundredths": 390000, "return_percent": "-6.04", "interval_low": "-28.39", "interval_high": "16.36", "interval_note": null, "period_from": "2026-10-25", "period_to": "2026-11-06", "method_version": "2.2", "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0", "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.2", "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 28 }, "same_picks": [ { "price": "Closing price", "series_code": "closing_live", "picks": 39, "return_main_percent": "-6.59", "return_other_percent": "-2.52", "settled_excluding_void": 38, "net_main_points_hundredths": -25052, "net_other_points_hundredths": -9560, "period_from": "2026-10-25", "period_to": "2026-11-06" } ], "score": { "score_forecasts": 23, "exact_hits": 2, "exact_rate": 8.7, "outcome_checked": 23, "outcome_hits": 9, "outcome_rate": 39.1, "baseline_matches": 23, "baseline_distinct_matches": 23, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 9, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": 39.1, "favourite_hits": 15, "favourite_rate": 65.2, "price_basis": "our pre-match snapshot", "pending": 1, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 3, "lines": [ "Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.", "2 of 23 score forecasts named the exact score (8.7%).", "The result implied by the named score was right in 9 of 23 matches; the market favourite was right in 15 of the same 23 matches.", "The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest price in our own odds snapshot taken before kick-off.", "The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win)." ] }, "eligible": { "checked": 71, "priced": 40 }, "accuracy": { "picks": 39, "won": 28, "won_percent": "71.8", "implied_percent": "75.9", "left_out": 1, "by_market": [ { "market": "Over/under goals", "won": 21, "picks": 28, "implied_percent": "80.3" }, { "market": "Match result", "won": 5, "picks": 6, "implied_percent": "65.5" }, { "market": "Both teams to score", "won": 2, "picks": 5, "implied_percent": "64.1" } ] }, "reviewed_after": { "predictions": 12, "right": 6, "wrong": 6, "other": 0 } }, { "code": "archived", "title": "Archived before kick-off", "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.", "predictions": 0, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null }, { "code": "found_after", "title": "Found after the match", "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.", "predictions": 9, "checked": 9, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 9, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null } ] }, "live_alongside": null, "headline_record_ids": [ "n-03a012cb23ef6c2b9771fd21", "n-0a821e49a678ba71413ac76e", "n-1024655b3280e2b554607b3c", "n-12fb1cf756b17d1f8e4959eb", "n-1790ced12f58618f47d68425", "n-181b5e4f268a6356c1e649a0", "n-1b74842532164b141faa6bb7", "n-1f84bca3f6779f0a7adaa22f", "n-25cbe28e070dfe4b61754abd", "n-277447330114040bf9fa0353", "n-2a00d1e8dafb28a88e33379f", "n-379a12350df817e766bb2c62", "n-3b3f14c7343e717722329d64", "n-3deabead6f5d887fa7d69598", "n-41ed2d70d4a60aa5c38abcff", 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"2026-10-25", "record_to": "2026-11-07" }, "recorded_picks": [ { "record_id": "n-ee1fee16bcbae0b8f1c4f1fa", "url": "/authors/goal-wizard/picks/5/#pick-n-ee1fee16bcbae0b8f1c4f1fa", "match": "Sevilla v Deportivo Alavés", "match_url": "/football/matches/sevilla-vs-deportivo-alaves-2026-11-06/", "kickoff": "2026-11-06T20:00:00.000Z", "competition": "LaLiga", "lead_hours": 26.0, "market_code": "total", "author_said": "Over/Under 3.5 goals: under 3.5", "quote": null, "group": "settled", "outcome": "Won", "claim_outcome": "Won", "final_score": "0-0", "reason": null, "reason_code": null, "points_hundredths": 2302, "series_code": "market_price", "series_short": "odds snapshot", "author_price": null, "settled_price": "1.2302", "published_at": "2026-11-05T17:54:02.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-11-05T17:57:41.760Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": true, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, 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"late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Over/Under 3.5 goals", "choice": "under 3.5", "author_odds": null, "market_key": "total", "choice_key": "under", "period": "match", "line": "3.5", "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Over/Under 3.5 goals: under 3.5" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "win", "scoreline": "0-0", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Won: the final score was Sevilla 0-0 Deportivo Alavés." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "ac0262edd0c9a5dd857c6504dc4e11aa13245997db669bc1ca7214b05e552fb7", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Over/Under 3.5 goals", "choice": "under 3.5", "decimal_odds": "1.2302", "odds_role": "market_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "win", "result_words": "Won", "change_hundredths": 2302, 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"https://t.me/Goal_Wizard/3515", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Goal Wizard", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "107e91901a4b04be967764d53ab9a4defbce937594e12f454f8983ffd79925e5", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-11-05T17:54:02.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-05T17:57:41.760Z", "executed_at": "2026-11-07T09:17:21.603Z", "statement_class": "unpriced", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": "s-1bc95b6a742f", "display_name": "Sevilla — Deportivo Alavés", "competition_name": "LaLiga", "starts_at": "2026-11-06T20:00:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/sevilla-vs-deportivo-alaves-2026-11-06/", "scoreline": "0-0", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "Over/Under 3 goals", "outcome_label": "under 3.0", "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": "1.3521", "our_snapshot_at": "2026-11-05T17:53:33.498Z", "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot", "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "win", "simulation_change_hundredths": 3521, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": "ours", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-11-05T17:54:02.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-11-05T17:54:02.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-05T17:57:41.760Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Over/Under 3 goals", "choice": "under 3.0", "author_odds": null, "market_key": "total", "choice_key": "under", "period": "match", "line": "3.0", "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Over/Under 3 goals: under 3.0" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "win", "scoreline": "0-0", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Won: the final score was Sevilla 0-0 Deportivo Alavés." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "0684ce24243e5d3143aa9859c3a742c82619fafe920ac0519642db59db599d91", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Over/Under 3 goals", "choice": "under 3.0", "decimal_odds": "1.3521", "odds_role": "market_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "win", "result_words": "Won", "change_hundredths": 3521, "executed_at": "2026-11-07T09:17:21.603Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "settled_pick", "authorship": { "material_author": "Goal Wizard", "publisher": "t.me", "forecaster": "Goal Wizard", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://t.me/Goal_Wizard/3515", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null, "choice_words": "under 3.0 (Over/Under 3 goals)" } }, { "record_id": "n-4f12db651f40fec7c8fc1f21", "url": "/authors/goal-wizard/picks/5/#pick-n-4f12db651f40fec7c8fc1f21", "match": "AZ Alkmaar v Juventus", "match_url": "/football/matches/az-alkmaar-vs-juventus-2026-11-05/", "kickoff": "2026-11-05T20:00:00.000Z", "competition": "UEFA Europa League", "lead_hours": 22.8, "market_code": "total", "author_said": "Over/Under 1.5 goals: over 1.5", "quote": null, "group": "settled", "outcome": "Won", "claim_outcome": "Won", "final_score": "1-2", "reason": null, "reason_code": null, "points_hundredths": 2500, "series_code": "market_price", "series_short": "odds snapshot", "author_price": null, "settled_price": "1.2500", "published_at": "2026-11-04T21:08:49.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-11-04T21:12:44.873Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": true, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": { "outcome": "over", "price": "1.2500", "result": "Won", "points_hundredths": 2500, "picked_favourite": true }, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-4f12db651f40fec7c8fc1f21", "quote_text": "Safe Pick: Over 1.5", "fragment_from": 770, "fragment_to": 789, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "telegram", "url": "https://t.me/Goal_Wizard/3514", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Goal Wizard", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": 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"series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-11-04T21:08:49.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-11-04T21:08:49.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-04T21:12:44.873Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Over/Under 1.5 goals", "choice": "over 1.5", "author_odds": null, "market_key": "total", "choice_key": "over", "period": "match", "line": "1.5", "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Over/Under 1.5 goals: over 1.5" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "win", "scoreline": "1-2", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Won: the final score was AZ Alkmaar 1-2 Juventus." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "e5bb6acdb9c9df0850403277e4f4ecf39e116baa4e8a89e400c2845861a31619", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Over/Under 1.5 goals", "choice": "over 1.5", "decimal_odds": "1.2500", "odds_role": "market_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "win", "result_words": "Won", "change_hundredths": 2500, "executed_at": "2026-11-04T21:33:15.405Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "settled_pick", "authorship": { "material_author": "Goal Wizard", "publisher": "t.me", "forecaster": "Goal Wizard", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the 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"author_words": true, "market_label": "Over/Under 1.5 goals", "choice": "over 1.5", "decimal_odds": null, "odds_role": null, "stake_hundredths": null, "status": "skipped", "status_text": "Not executed: ", "result": null, "result_words": null, "change_hundredths": null, "executed_at": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": { "material_author": "Goal Wizard", "publisher": "t.me", "forecaster": "Goal Wizard", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://t.me/Goal_Wizard/3469", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null, "choice_words": "over 1.5 (Over/Under 1.5 goals)" } }, 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"late-1.0", "row_list": [ { "display_name": "Market price at the evidenced time of publication", "decimal_odds": null, "price_known": false, "result": null, "net_profit_hundredths": null, "price_at_time": true } ] }, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals", "choice": "over 2.5", "author_odds": null, "market_key": "total", "choice_key": "over", "period": "match", "line": "2.5", "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Over/Under 2.5 goals: over 2.5" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "loss", "scoreline": "0-2", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Everton 0-2 Chelsea." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "5389bda93ebf2cdccd3af7fb56eec26d1db5c1e158e3a36d39ffe4449365b9e3", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals", "choice": "over 2.5", "decimal_odds": null, "odds_role": null, "stake_hundredths": null, "status": "skipped", "status_text": "Not executed: ", "result": null, "result_words": null, "change_hundredths": null, "executed_at": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": { "material_author": "Goal Wizard", "publisher": "t.me", "forecaster": "Goal Wizard", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://t.me/Goal_Wizard/3469", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null, "choice_words": "over 2.5 (Over/Under 2.5 goals)" } }, { "record_id": "n-e3593cbfa5e17c126c5eebc3", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Prediction: Crystal Palace 1-2 Liverpool", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "no_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-11-07T18:52:27.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-11-07T18:58:22.490Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-7b361f6a18e71205d2953f60", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Value Pick: Liverpool", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "no_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-11-07T18:52:27.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-11-07T18:58:22.490Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-f48607c210bde8aed01ea2e1", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Safe Pick: Over 1.5", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "no_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-11-07T18:52:27.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-11-07T18:58:22.490Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-5a423eb2139ca96c0e7fe16a", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Prediction: Arsenal 3-1 Hull City", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "ambiguous", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-11-06T18:14:55.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-11-06T18:27:45.501Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null } ], "lead_time": { "contract_version": 1, "threshold_hours": 2.0, "picks": 83, "before_kickoff": 74, "after_kickoff": 9, "at_least_2h": 74, "share_2h_plus": 89.2, "median_hours": 22.5, "min_hours": 9.4, "max_hours": 26.0, "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off." }, "baseline": { "contract_version": 1, "series_code": "market_price", "rule": "recorded-line-1.0", "state": "settled", "picks": 26, "settled_picks_all": 59, "excluded": { "market_without_favourite": 0, 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"favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -10000 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 950, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 950 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-27T17:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 11950, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 11950 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-28T17:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 14250, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 14250 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-28T17:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 4250, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 4250 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-28T19:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 6250, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 6250 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-28T19:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 13713, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 13713 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-28T19:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 21176, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 21176 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-29T17:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 27670, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 27670 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-29T19:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 17670, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 17670 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-30T18:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 20149, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 20149 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-30T18:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 20749, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 20749 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-30T18:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 23228, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 23228 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-31T12:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 13228, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 32752 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-02T20:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 3228, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 44252 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-03T20:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -6772, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 58052 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-03T20:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -16772, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 71052 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-04T20:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -14272, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 73552 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-04T20:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -9064, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 78760 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-04T20:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -3856, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 83968 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-04T20:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -2656, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 85168 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-04T20:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -2156, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 85668 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-04T20:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 344, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 88168 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-05T20:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 10344, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 98168 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-05T20:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 12844, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 100668 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-05T20:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 22844, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 110668 } ], "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out." }, "pagination": { "per_page": 20, "total": 87, "pages": 6, "page_urls": [ "/authors/goal-wizard/", "/authors/goal-wizard/picks/2/", "/authors/goal-wizard/picks/3/", "/authors/goal-wizard/picks/4/", "/authors/goal-wizard/picks/5/", "/authors/goal-wizard/picks/6/" ], "groups": { "settled": 40, "pending": 2, "excluded": 45 }, "continuation": "by_time", "page": 1, "first": 1, "last": 20, "author_url": "/authors/goal-wizard/", "current": false }, "title_tag": "Goal Wizard Predictions: Verified Record, Results and Sources", "calculator": { "url": "/tools/luck-or-skill/?n=39&odds=1.36&roi=-6.0&src=record", "n": 39, "odds": "1.36", "roi": "-6.0", "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price" }, "person": { "person_id": "o-62f0e651eadbab92f74963c1", "type_code": "individual", "name_shown": "Goal Wizard", "main_entity": "e-62f0e651eadbab92f74963c1", "identity": { "status": "not_verified", "is_verified": false, "when": null, "source_list": [] }, "platform_list": [ { "entity_ref": "e-62f0e651eadbab92f74963c1", "medium": "t.me", "channel": "Telegram", "domain": "t.me", "source_info": null, "byline": "Goal Wizard", "url": null, "summary": { "statements": 155, "predictions": 87, "settled_picks": 40, "headline_kind": "live_snapshot", "return_percent": -6.04, "headline_part": "live", "period_from": "2026-10-25", "period_to": "2026-11-07" } } ], "previously": [], "trust_tier": "probation" }, "data_revision": { "data_version": "2026-11-07.2", "updated": "2026-11-07", "current_release": "2026-11-07.2", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "2.2", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "series_code": "market_price", "sample": { "settled_picks": 40, "matches": 20, "void": 1, "period_from": "2026-10-25", "period_to": "2026-11-06", "composition_hash": "4aa4fe7ef3be9216c356b7967cc092b43a45705283fc2fc6f59af667aaddb3fe" }, "changes_url": "#changes", "corrections_url": "/corrections/" }, "number_changes": [ { "id": "zc-334d0d3d608461c5f6fb", "at": "2026-11-07T20:05:20.937Z", "data_version": "2026-11-07.2", "previous_data_version": "2026-11-07.1", "url": "/authors/goal-wizard/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-11-06.1", "return_percent": "22.29", "settled_picks": 12, "matches": 6, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "dc88d78a0a1ce43ebdcf87ab9a3d887f242e00503a87b038762e9fffd7edcbc7", "text": "+22.29% on 12 settled picks across 6 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-11-07.2", "return_percent": "-6.04", "settled_picks": 40, "matches": 20, "void": 1, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "4aa4fe7ef3be9216c356b7967cc092b43a45705283fc2fc6f59af667aaddb3fe", "text": "−6.04% on 40 settled picks across 20 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 28 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 28, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-25d4cfdf493fe3b95d72", "at": "2026-11-06T14:46:17.511Z", "data_version": "2026-11-06.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-11-05.3", "url": "/authors/goal-wizard/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-11-05.1", "return_percent": "14.25", "settled_picks": 10, "matches": 5, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "95af7cbc8c09c6c9f3f87a1e5440dfe0daa428831fc5ce7e997de781e1939f76", "text": "+14.25% on 10 settled picks across 5 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-11-06.1", "return_percent": "22.29", "settled_picks": 12, "matches": 6, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "dc88d78a0a1ce43ebdcf87ab9a3d887f242e00503a87b038762e9fffd7edcbc7", "text": "+22.29% on 12 settled picks across 6 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "2 new settled picks from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 2, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-af9d8e0b6eff3153593e", "at": "2026-11-05T05:43:48.128Z", "data_version": "2026-11-05.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-11-04.3", "url": "/authors/goal-wizard/", "category": "new_results", 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"added": 4, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-e884e606388b24fb5638", "at": "2026-10-31T04:09:05.944Z", "data_version": "2026-10-31.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-30.3", "url": "/authors/goal-wizard/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-29.1", "return_percent": "4.41", "settled_picks": 4, "matches": 2, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "73b8510a461f578ae7beddca000d758f9567a8f6efd1d29aca3bb45ad7f6aa9d", "text": "+17.63 points on 4 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-31.1", "return_percent": "8.07", "settled_picks": 6, "matches": 3, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": 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across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "First headline number for this record: 4 settled picks in the series “independent odds snapshot”.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 4, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null } ], "counts_by_slice": { "portions": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "settled_picks": 40, "total_check": true, "market_list": [ { "code_name": "total", "in_words": "Over/under goals", "url": null, "settled_picks": 29, "won": 21, "void": 1, "net_points_hundredths": -21817, "return_percent": "-7.8", "period_from": "2026-10-25", "period_to": "2026-11-06", "small_sample": false, "average_odds": "1.28", "odds_from_author": 0, "odds_from_snapshot": 29 }, { "code_name": "1x2", "in_words": "Match result", "url": null, "settled_picks": 6, "won": 5, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": 17650, "return_percent": "29.4", 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