{ "schema_name": "page", "schema_version": "2.0", "page_type": "author", "url": "/authors/gav/", "canonical": "/authors/gav/", "language": "en", "hreflang": [], "translations": [], "heading": "Gav: Football Prediction Record", "description": "Gav: 484 statements recorded by Forecast Record. Every statement with its source and the rule applied to it.", "first_paragraph": { "body": "Forecast Record has recorded 484 statements by Gav, including 18 predictions. Of the 18 predictions we hold for Gav, 3 are linked to matches: 2 were recorded by us before kick-off and 1 first found after the match. The statements are listed below; as of 7 November 2026.", "key_number": "484", "data": "2026-11-07", "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot", "brand": "Forecast Record" }, "indexable": false, "noindex_reason": "too_few_settled", "indexing_threshold": { "settled_count": 2, "date_count": 1, "required_settled": 10, "required_dates": 2 }, "data_date": "2026-11-07T18:16:25.609Z", "built_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "lastmod": "2026-11-08T02:12:33.000Z", "content_hash": null, "meaning_hash": "9e1434fd5f00dbe8b95a1603b24c60600e43b2a873453394d7f4a482b0d04e2f", "dependency_group": "author:e-e75b528e4cacc45a199fde84", "release_id": "20261107-195223", "markup": [ { "type_code": "WebPage", "allowed": true, "cause": null }, { "type_code": "Organization", "allowed": true, "cause": null }, { "type_code": "Person", "allowed": true, "cause": null } ], "exports": [ { "type_code": "json", "url": "/authors/gav/index.json", "bytes": null }, { "type_code": "csv", "url": "/authors/gav/picks.csv", "bytes": null } ], "modules": { "affiliate": true, "api": true, "compare_yourself": false }, "affiliate_block": { "container": true, "request_url": "/partnery/moi", "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.", "page_category": "author" }, "restrictions": { "name_withdrawn": false, "tracker_number": null, "withdrawn_quotes": [], "removed_at": null, "cause": null, "suspended_records": [], "withdrawal_log_number": 0 }, "page_links": { "methodology": "/methodology/", "right_of_reply": "/right-of-reply/", "source_coverage": "/coverage/", "corrections_log": "/corrections/", "api": "/api/", "claim": "/claim/" }, "entity": { "id": "e-e75b528e4cacc45a199fde84", "public_name": "Gav", "tracker_number": 996, "status": "active", "inactive_since": null, "verified_creator": false, "observation_period": { "since": "2026-09-29", "until": "2026-11-07" }, "platform_list": [ { "medium": "website", "handle": null, "url": null, "link_confirmed": false, "show": true } ], "comment": null }, "headline_number": { "metric": { "metric_id": "p-e-e75b528e4cacc45a199fde84-roi-market-price-90d-z99", "code_name": "roi_market_price", "display_name": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot", "window_kind": "90d", "window_from": "2026-08-09", "window_to": "2026-11-07", "amount": null, "unit": "percent", "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "no pick in this window has been settled", "n_bets": 0, "n_events": 0, "n_void": null, "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "ci_method": "not_estimated", "price_source": "market_price", "coverage_percent": null, "breakdown": [], "methodology_version": "2.2", "data_date": "2026-11-07T18:16:25.609Z", "enough_for_ranking": false, "series_uid": null, "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot" }, "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 0 settled picks across 0 matches", "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, "metrics": [], "history": [], "simulation": { "series_uid": "sr-dd027f866bd1e7559d8f9184", "bankroll_hundredths": 1000000, "reserve_hundredths": 0, "issued_total_hundredths": 1000000, "top_up_count": 0, "profit_hundredths": 0, "rewards_off": null, "initial_hundredths": 1000000, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "data_points": [ { "at": "2026-10-11T15:11:30.294Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 990000, "profit_hundredths": -10000, "outcome_id": "ish-8e25d69276bebe37e8ad81c1" } ], "top_ups": [], "rule": "When the balance falls below 100 points and no bets are open, 10000 points are added; the remaining balance is kept. While bets are open we wait for settlement.", "series_key": "derived_series", "series_label": "Forecast Record reconstruction from the predicted score" }, "simulations": [], "completeness": { "detected": 484, "recognised": 18, "accepted": 0, "executed": 0, "calculated": 0, "gaps": [ { "cause": "not_supported", "figure": 14 }, { "cause": "other reading", "figure": 2 }, { "cause": "outside the method", "figure": 1 }, { "cause": "too_late", "figure": 1 } ] }, "record_counts": { "dictionary_version": "1", "statements": 484, "of_them_restored": 0, "not_predictions": { "opinions": 89, "not_about_a_match": 377, "unclassified": 0 }, "predictions": 18, "predictions_restored": 0, "matches": 2, "admitted": 0, "qualifying_picks": 0, "qualifying_picks_restored": 0, "settled_picks": 0, "settled_picks_restored": 0, "series_list": [], "gaps": [ { "code_name": "not_supported", "cause": "not_supported", "figure": 14 }, { "code_name": "ambiguous", "cause": "other reading", "figure": 2 }, { "code_name": "not_admitted", "cause": "outside the method", "figure": 1 }, { "code_name": "too_late", "cause": "too_late", "figure": 1 } ], "duplicates": 0, "junk": {}, "dictionary_url": "/methodology/#words" }, "evidence_items": [ { "observation_id": "n-5e82f01306ad0f91fbedaa2d", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-5e82f01306ad0f91fbedaa2d", "quote_text": null, "fragment_from": null, "fragment_to": null, "quote_allowed": false, "source_info": { "medium": "podcast_feed", "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/dj-illness/episodes/E208-Holds-Barred--Arsenal-Survive-West-Ham-VAR-Drama--Injury-Chaos--Claim-Huge-Win-Match-Review-e3j76gh", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Gav", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": 62360, "bundle_id": "4eaafaa76a8e8439f15580f42471775e7efd2e11877b65052ac1a845a11dcbbf", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-05-11T14:41:36.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-07T00:08:22.860Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-05-11T14:41:36.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-05-11T14:41:36.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-07T00:08:22.860Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; 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no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-6b92d3a703fb9faa9b9a3440", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-6b92d3a703fb9faa9b9a3440", "quote_text": null, "fragment_from": null, "fragment_to": null, "quote_allowed": false, "source_info": { "medium": "podcast_feed", "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/dj-illness/episodes/E251-Coventry-City-H---Premier-League-Title-Defence-Begins--Saka--Rice-Return-and-Starting-XI-Debate-Match-Preview-e3nkk1a", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Gav", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": 1885140, "bundle_id": "8d1dd25b15fc3d00883eb71fa42839e3f72e8d3d4498a9a591dacddb54fcc3b3", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-08-20T06:00:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-14T20:22:53.153Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-08-20T06:00:00.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-08-20T06:00:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-14T20:22:53.153Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null } ], "standing": null, "retro": null, "late": null, "price_vs_market": null, "record_summary": { "contract_version": "1", "entity_type": "person", "entity_words": "Individual author", "source": { "name": "podcasters.spotify.com", "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/dj-illness/episodes/E208-Holds-Barred--Arsenal-Survive-West-Ham-VAR-Drama--Injury-Chaos--Claim-Huge-Win-Match-Review-e3j76gh" }, "observed_from": "2026-09-29", "observed_to": "2026-11-07", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "state": "none", "series_code": null, "series": null, "restored": false, "headline_kind": null, "headline_part": null, "settled_picks": 0, "matches": 0, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": null, "staked_hundredths": null, "return_percent": null, "stake_per_pick_hundredths": null, "period_from": null, "period_to": null, "status": "unknown", "method_version": null, "short_history": true, "reason": "14 predictions are in other markets; 2 predictions are unstaked; 1 prediction is a score forecast without a price and 1 prediction for other reasons", "reasons": [ { "code": "not_supported", "predictions": 14, "words": "other market" }, { "code": "ambiguous", "predictions": 2, "words": "unstaked" }, { "code": "score_without_price", "predictions": 1, "words": "score forecast without a price" }, { "code": "too_late", "predictions": 1, "words": "unstaked" } ], "sentence": "Forecast Record has recorded 484 statements by Gav, including 18 predictions. Of the 18 predictions we hold for Gav, 3 are linked to matches: 2 were recorded by us before kick-off and 1 first found after the match. The statements are listed below; as of 7 November 2026.", "numbers": [ { "label": "Statements", "value": "484", "anchor": "/methodology/#statement", "note": null }, { "label": "Predictions", "value": "18", "anchor": "/methodology/#prediction", "note": null } ], "limitations": [], "other_series": [], "return_over_time": [], "return_over_time_parts": { "live": null, "archived": null }, "author_response": null, "cite": { "text": "Forecast Record has recorded 484 statements by Gav, including 18 predictions. Of the 18 predictions we hold for Gav, 3 are linked to matches: 2 were recorded by us before kick-off and 1 first found after the match. The statements are listed below; as of 7 November 2026.", "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/gav/", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": null }, "origin": { "contract_version": "1", "predictions": 18, "under_review": 0, "no_match_linked": 15, "proven_predictions": 2, "proven_checked": 2, "proven_measured": 2, "proven_dates": 1, "parts": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.", "predictions": 2, "checked": 2, "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "series_code": "market_price", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 2, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": 0.0, "outcome_checked": 2, "outcome_hits": 1, "outcome_rate": 50.0, "baseline_matches": 2, "baseline_distinct_matches": 1, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 1, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": 50.0, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": 0.0, "price_basis": "our pre-match snapshot", "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 1, "lines": [ "Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.", "0 of 2 score forecasts named the exact score.", "The result implied by the named score was right in 1 of 2 forecasts; the market favourite was right in 0 of the same 2 forecasts.", "Some matches carry more than one of these forecasts: 2 forecasts on 1 match.", "The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest price in our own odds snapshot taken before kick-off.", "The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win)." ] }, "eligible": { "checked": 2, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null, "reviewed_after": { "predictions": 1, "right": 0, "wrong": 1, "other": 0 } }, { "code": "archived", "title": "Archived before kick-off", "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.", "predictions": 0, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null }, { "code": "found_after", "title": "Found after the match", "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.", "predictions": 1, "checked": 1, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 1, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null } ] }, "live_alongside": null, "headline_record_ids": [], "caption": "Recorded statements and predictions · as of 7 November 2026", "record_from": "2026-09-29", "record_to": "2026-11-07" }, "recorded_picks": [ { "record_id": "n-6e7b37407662e484a842db81", "url": "/authors/gav/#pick-n-6e7b37407662e484a842db81", "match": "Newcastle United v Aston Villa", "match_url": "/football/matches/newcastle-united-vs-aston-villa-2026-10-17/", "kickoff": "2026-10-17T16:30:00.000Z", "competition": "Premier League", "lead_hours": -13.2, "market_code": "correct_score_market", "author_said": "Correct score: Newcastle United 3-2 Aston Villa", "quote": null, "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": "Lost", "final_score": "0-1", "reason": "", "reason_code": "too_late", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-16T14:19:11.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-18T05:44:46.120Z", "origin": "Recorded by us after kick-off; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-6e7b37407662e484a842db81", "quote_text": null, "fragment_from": null, "fragment_to": null, "quote_allowed": false, "source_info": { "medium": "podcast_feed", "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/dj-illness/episodes/E274-Nottingham-Forest-a-e3qjr6e", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Gav", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": 494720, "bundle_id": "6c727356df5c4aa36fb312e29de9c9924a883df0b5ac434648280844b1615bed", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-16T14:19:11.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-18T05:44:46.120Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "score_forecast", "status": "too_late", "cause": "", "cause_code": "too_late", "event": { "event_id": "s-b276cafca276", "display_name": "Newcastle United — Aston Villa", "competition_name": "Premier League", "starts_at": "2026-10-17T16:30:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/newcastle-united-vs-aston-villa-2026-10-17/", "scoreline": "0-1", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "Correct score", "outcome_label": "Newcastle United 3-2 Aston Villa", "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": "loss", "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-16T14:19:11.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", 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"https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/dj-illness/episodes/E274-Nottingham-Forest-a-e3qjr6e", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null, "choice_words": "Newcastle United 3-2 Aston Villa" } }, { "record_id": "n-08d96834c97b69102947a2dc", "url": "/authors/gav/#pick-n-08d96834c97b69102947a2dc", "match": "Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest", "match_url": "/football/matches/crystal-palace-vs-nottingham-forest-2026-10-11/", "kickoff": "2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z", "competition": "Premier League", "lead_hours": 45.0, "market_code": "correct_score_market", "author_said": "Correct score: Crystal Palace 1-1 Nottingham Forest", "quote": null, "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": "Lost", "final_score": "3-1", "reason": "score forecast without a price, graded against the final score", "reason_code": "score_without_price", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-09T15:06:05.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T16:00:51.013Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-08d96834c97b69102947a2dc", "quote_text": null, "fragment_from": null, "fragment_to": null, "quote_allowed": false, "source_info": { "medium": "podcast_feed", "url": "https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/dj-illness/episodes/E271-Leeds-h-e3q7v83", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Gav", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": 281990, "bundle_id": "8f686ea531c5179dda17bc9c3e26f9ca51f8901d4d1745a3627713d27979ef91", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-09T15:06:05.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-09T16:00:51.013Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "score_forecast", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": "s-83453d98f561", "display_name": "Crystal Palace — Nottingham Forest", "competition_name": "Premier League", "starts_at": "2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/crystal-palace-vs-nottingham-forest-2026-10-11/", "scoreline": "3-1", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "Correct score", "outcome_label": "Crystal Palace 1-1 Nottingham Forest", "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": "loss", "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-09T15:06:05.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-10-09T15:06:05.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-09T16:00:51.013Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Correct score", "choice": "Crystal Palace 1-1 Nottingham Forest", "author_odds": null, "market_key": "correct_score_market", "choice_key": "1-1", "period": "match", "line": null, "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Correct score: Crystal Palace 1-1 Nottingham Forest" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "loss", "scoreline": "3-1", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Did not match: the final score was Crystal Palace 3-1 Nottingham Forest." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "560307e2d3d28161f45cbc79fd06ce8a979b10932b88935b38306b2046c9b2ad", "series_key": "derived_series", 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