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 "heading": "Gary Pearson: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "1 settled pick by Gary Pearson archived before kick-off across 1 match, 8 Apr 2025: won 0 of 1, reconstructed at archived prices.",
 "first_paragraph": {
  "body": "Forecast Record restored 1 settled archived pick by Gary Pearson from copies archived before kick-off, across 1 match on 8 April 2025. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 0 of 1 settled archived pick. Of the 80 predictions we hold for Gary Pearson, 8 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 72 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
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  "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.",
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   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
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    "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:05:54.222Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
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   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
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    "result": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
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  {
   "observation_id": "n-10be438161808990aa678c46",
   "url": "/authors/gary-pearson/picks/5/#pick-n-10be438161808990aa678c46",
   "quote_text": "I predict a 2-1 Barcelona victory.",
   "fragment_from": 3212,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250409170640id_/https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/soccer/barcelona-vs-borussia-dortmund-prediction-expert-pick-odds-april-9-2025/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Gary Pearson",
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    "bundle_id": "ab5ab66a83c4dd6d43a031d7ddcf5ad80451a66c36a96383ecad8d169a31f185",
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   },
   "published_at": "2025-04-08T20:41:00.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:05:54.222Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "score_forecast",
   "status": "too_late",
   "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "cause_code": "too_late",
   "event": {
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    "display_name": "FC Barcelona v Borussia Dortmund",
    "competition_name": "UEFA Champions League",
    "starts_at": "2025-04-09T19:00:00.000Z",
    "url": null,
    "scoreline": "4-0"
   },
   "market_label": "Correct score",
   "outcome_label": "FC Barcelona 2-1 Borussia Dortmund",
   "odds_set": {
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   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": "loss",
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
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    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2025-04-08T20:41:00.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:05:54.222Z",
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    "flags": [],
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    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": "Added to our record on 30 Sep 2026",
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   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "Correct score",
    "choice": "FC Barcelona 2-1 Borussia Dortmund",
    "author_odds": null,
    "market_key": "correct_score_market",
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    "period": "match",
    "line": null,
    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "Correct score: FC Barcelona 2-1 Borussia Dortmund"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": "loss",
    "scoreline": "4-0",
    "data_status": "measured",
    "cause": null,
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "in_words": "Did not match: the final score was FC Barcelona 4-0 Borussia Dortmund."
   },
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     "series_key": "retro_derived_sm",
     "series_label": "Restored score forecast: result implied by the score, at the last pre-match archive price",
     "derived": true,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": false,
     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "FC Barcelona",
     "decimal_odds": "1.3200",
     "odds_role": "closing_odds",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "win",
     "result_words": "Won",
     "change_hundredths": 3200,
     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:13.744Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
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   "funnel_stage": "prediction",
   "authorship": {
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    "forecaster": "Gary Pearson",
    "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
    "basis": null,
    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
    "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/soccer/barcelona-vs-borussia-dortmund-prediction-expert-pick-odds-april-9-2025/",
    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
    "verdict_by": null,
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   "correction": null
  },
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   "observation_id": "n-4b5735254d7d89c12f374797",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-4b5735254d7d89c12f374797",
   "quote_text": "Teams\n\nMoneyline\n\nSpread\n\nTotal\n\nArsenal\n\n-575\n\n-2.5 (+135)\n\nOver 3.5 (+115)\n\nWolves\n\n+1300",
   "fragment_from": 4708,
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   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/soccer/arsenal-vs-wolves-odds-picks-prediction-aug-17-2024/",
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    "speaker": "Gary Pearson",
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   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-17T08:00:00.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:00:54.586Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
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    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-9ba44303ecc09639b40e6926",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-9ba44303ecc09639b40e6926",
   "quote_text": "Odds: -120 via bet365 | Implied probability: 54.55%",
   "fragment_from": 4581,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/soccer/arsenal-vs-wolves-odds-picks-prediction-aug-17-2024/",
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    "speaker": "Gary Pearson",
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   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:00:54.586Z",
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   "statement_class": "no_event",
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-17T08:00:00.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:00:54.586Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
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   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-f630bb7a450a47592f29e601",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-f630bb7a450a47592f29e601",
   "quote_text": "Odds: +130 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 43.48%",
   "fragment_from": 3800,
   "fragment_to": 3855,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/soccer/arsenal-vs-wolves-odds-picks-prediction-aug-17-2024/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Gary Pearson",
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    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:00:54.586Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
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   "odds_set": {
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   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-17T08:00:00.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:00:54.586Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-7c59df2ae42ab5e745639398",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-7c59df2ae42ab5e745639398",
   "quote_text": "Odds: +650 via bet365 | Implied probability: 13.33%",
   "fragment_from": 3004,
   "fragment_to": 3055,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/soccer/arsenal-vs-wolves-odds-picks-prediction-aug-17-2024/",
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    "speaker": "Gary Pearson",
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   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:00:54.586Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
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   "odds_set": {
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   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-17T08:00:00.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:00:54.586Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-876be911d28a3972db15936b",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-876be911d28a3972db15936b",
   "quote_text": "Arsenal have been dominant against Wolves in recent years, and they hope to continue that trend when",
   "fragment_from": 155,
   "fragment_to": 255,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/soccer/arsenal-vs-wolves-odds-picks-prediction-aug-17-2024/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Gary Pearson",
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    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:00:54.586Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
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   "event": null,
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   "odds_set": {
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   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
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   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-17T08:00:00.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:00:54.586Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-d46f40634695c7688a189c7a",
   "url": "/authors/gary-pearson/picks/5/#pick-n-d46f40634695c7688a189c7a",
   "quote_text": "Best bet: Arsenal win and Wolves not to score (-120 via bet365)",
   "fragment_from": 1956,
   "fragment_to": 2019,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/soccer/arsenal-vs-wolves-odds-picks-prediction-aug-17-2024/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Gary Pearson",
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    "bundle_id": "e1ba2e0c75e49534173612a5bc87bc8445124e2450d659f943883d68a79e22e6",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": "2024-08-17T08:00:00.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-09-30T15:00:54.586Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "priced",
   "status": "too_late",
   "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "cause_code": "disputed_reading",
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    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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    "closing": "15.0000",
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   "quote_text": "The price for the favored Manchester United keeps shortening gradually as the match looms",
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   "observation_id": "n-1e91ef8301afaf9638b86b48",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-1e91ef8301afaf9638b86b48",
   "quote_text": "club captain Son Heung-min isn't back to full match sharpness after recently returning from a foot injury.",
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   "observation_id": "n-c2ddb93c541c97fe496781d5",
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   "quote_text": "Dejan Kulusevski, James Madison, and potentially Lucas Bergvall won't be available for Tottenham.",
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   "source_info": {
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   "observation_id": "n-6910762035ba912ac8545199",
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   "quote_text": "Score prediction: Man United 2, Tottenham 1",
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   "source_info": {
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    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
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    "in_words": "Correct score: Tottenham Hotspur 1-2 Crystal Palace"
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     "choice": "Crystal Palace",
     "decimal_odds": "2.8500",
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    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
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   },
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-286f14f94d2fb644259b9ae7",
   "url": "/authors/gary-pearson/picks/4/#pick-n-286f14f94d2fb644259b9ae7",
   "quote_text": "Brennan Johnson\n\n+380 via BetMGM",
   "fragment_from": 1399,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/soccer/tottenham-vs-crystal-palace-prediction-odds-picks-premier-league-best-bets-today-march-5-2026/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Gary Pearson",
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   },
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   "odds_set": {
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   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
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    "subject": "player_goals",
    "in_words": "Player to score at 4.8"
   },
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    "material_url": "https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/soccer/tottenham-vs-crystal-palace-prediction-odds-picks-premier-league-best-bets-today-march-5-2026/",
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  {
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   "quote_text": "Over 2.5 goals\n\n-120 via FanDuel",
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    "scoreline": "1-3"
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   "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
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   "odds_set": {
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    "closing": "1.8772",
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   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
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   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "author_claim": {
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    "choice": "over 2.5",
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    "market_key": "total",
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    "period": "match",
    "line": "2.5",
    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "Over/Under 2.5 goals: over 2.5 at 1.83"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "in_words": "Won: the final score was Tottenham Hotspur 1-3 Crystal Palace."
   },
   "settlements": [
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     "site_simulation": true,
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     "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
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     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
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     "change_hundredths": 8333,
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    {
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     "series_label": "Restored, at the closing market price",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
     "choice": "over 2.5",
     "decimal_odds": "1.8772",
     "odds_role": "closing_odds",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "win",
     "result_words": "Won",
     "change_hundredths": 8772,
     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:21:59.079Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
     "on_claim_market": true,
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    },
    {
     "operation_id": "67ded06a89e3487ee08130caee81a177ac45504592e22887f465f467a4a0439d",
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     "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
     "choice": "over 2.5",
     "decimal_odds": "1.8800",
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     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
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     "result_words": "Won",
     "change_hundredths": 8800,
     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:21:59.085Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
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   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
   "authorship": {
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    "publisher": "sportsbookreview.com",
    "forecaster": "Gary Pearson",
    "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
    "basis": null,
    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
    "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/soccer/tottenham-vs-crystal-palace-prediction-odds-picks-premier-league-best-bets-today-march-5-2026/",
    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
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   },
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 ],
 "excluded_from_feed": {
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  "ruleset_version": "3"
 },
 "standing": null,
 "retro": {
  "restored_total": 39,
  "of_them_archived_pre_match": 3,
  "found_post_match": 36,
  "of_them_source_reported": 0,
  "live_count": 0,
  "date_count": 17,
  "span_from": "2024-08-18",
  "span_to": "2026-04-11",
  "line_text": "restored history: 39, of which pre-match archive 3",
  "body": "We re-read what this author published before Premier League, Champions League and Europa League matches between 18 August 2024 and 11 April 2026 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 39. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 3. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 36. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.",
  "precision": {
   "n": 39,
   "share": "0.3846"
  },
  "series_list": [
   {
    "code_name": "retro_author_price",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
    "n": 38,
    "roi": "-17.9650",
    "ci_low": "-56.3861",
    "ci_high": "24.1364",
    "data_status": "calculated",
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   },
   {
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    "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price",
    "n": 19,
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    "data_status": "calculated",
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   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "n": 27,
    "roi": "-28.7593",
    "ci_low": "-72.7727",
    "ci_high": "17.6346",
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_derived_sm",
    "display_name": "Restored score forecast: result implied by the score, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "n": 16,
    "roi": "-37.6563",
    "ci_low": "-74.5625",
    "ci_high": "6.2188",
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   }
  ],
  "clv": {
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above"
  },
  "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
  "leagues": [
   "Premier League",
   "Champions League",
   "Europa League"
  ],
  "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 40 settled restored picks and forecasts, and the two agree; 15 come from one provider only. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged.",
  "score_accuracy": {
   "n": 16,
   "share": "0.125"
  }
 },
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "threshold_percent": "5",
  "rows": [
   {
    "basis": "closing",
    "basis_words": "the closing market price of the same selection (restored history)",
    "basis_short": "Closing market price (restored)",
    "compared": 19,
    "above": 3,
    "above_share_percent": "15.8",
    "below": 5,
    "within": 11,
    "median_difference_percent": "-1.3",
    "not_comparable": 1,
    "disputed": 1,
    "status": "calculated",
    "sentence": "The author's stated price against the closing price of the same selection: median −1.3% over 19 picks. The price available to followers is the market price, shown separately."
   }
  ],
  "examples": [
   {
    "url": "/authors/gary-pearson/picks/3/#pick-n-ef58c0e5e4087baf68ebeaab",
    "basis": "closing",
    "stated": "4.33",
    "market": "5.00",
    "difference_percent": "-13.4"
   },
   {
    "url": "/authors/gary-pearson/picks/2/#pick-n-4e25fa9d2d280f684c4c061b",
    "basis": "closing",
    "stated": "2.10",
    "market": "2.25",
    "difference_percent": "-6.7"
   }
  ],
  "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way."
 },
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "sportsbookreview.com",
   "url": "https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/soccer/liverpool-vs-marseille-prediction-odds-jan-21-2026/"
  },
  "observed_from": "2026-09-28",
  "observed_to": "2026-09-30",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
  "series": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
  "restored": true,
  "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
  "headline_part": "archived",
  "settled_picks": 1,
  "matches": 1,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": -10000,
  "staked_hundredths": 10000,
  "return_percent": "-100.00",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2025-04-08",
  "period_to": "2025-04-08",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "retro-1.1",
  "short_history": true,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record restored 1 settled archived pick by Gary Pearson from copies archived before kick-off, across 1 match on 8 April 2025. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 0 of 1 settled archived pick. Of the 80 predictions we hold for Gary Pearson, 8 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 72 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled archived picks",
    "value": "1",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "1",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "−100 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "value": "−100.0%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": null
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [
   "Most of this history was found after the matches. Of the 27 selections in this historical price series, 1 has a pre-match archive copy and 26 were first found after the match.",
   "Reconstructed at archived prices: these picks were restored from copies of the author’s pages that an independent web archive saved before kick-off, at the last pre-match archive prices, bookmaker margin included."
  ],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": null,
   "archived": {
    "part": "archived",
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. These picks were restored from copies an independent web archive saved before kick-off; the line shows how they settled at archived prices.",
    "settled_picks": 1,
    "matches": 1,
    "match_dates": 1,
    "period_from": "2025-04-08",
    "period_to": "2025-04-08",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": -10000,
    "low": {
     "date": "2025-04-08",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000,
     "after_picks": 1
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2025-04-08",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000,
     "after_picks": 1
    },
    "line_drawn": false,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2025-04-08",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000,
      "n": 1,
      "picks": 1
     }
    ]
   }
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record restored 1 settled archived pick by Gary Pearson from copies archived before kick-off, across 1 match on 8 April 2025. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 0 of 1 settled archived pick. Of the 80 predictions we hold for Gary Pearson, 8 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 72 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/gary-pearson/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "retro-1.1"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 80,
   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 0,
   "proven_predictions": 8,
   "proven_checked": 4,
   "proven_measured": 2,
   "proven_dates": 3,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 8,
     "checked": 4,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 1,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 1,
      "net_points_hundredths": -10000,
      "staked_hundredths": 10000,
      "return_percent": "-100.00",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2025-04-08",
      "period_to": "2025-04-08",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 1,
       "return_main_percent": "-100.00",
       "return_other_percent": "-100.00",
       "settled_excluding_void": 1,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -10000,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -10000,
       "period_from": "2025-04-08",
       "period_to": "2025-04-08"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 1,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": 0.0,
      "outcome_checked": 1,
      "outcome_hits": 1,
      "outcome_rate": 100.0,
      "baseline_matches": 1,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 1,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 1,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": 100.0,
      "favourite_hits": 1,
      "favourite_rate": 100.0,
      "price_basis": "last pre-match archive price",
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": [
       "Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to this score forecast.",
       "0 of 1 score forecast named the exact score.",
       "The result implied by the named score was right in 1 of 1 match; the market favourite was right in 1 of the same match.",
       "The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off).",
       "The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win)."
      ]
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 4,
      "priced": 1
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 1,
      "won": 0,
      "won_percent": "0.0",
      "implied_percent": "27.8",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "27.8"
       }
      ]
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 72,
     "checked": 51,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 26,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 14,
      "net_points_hundredths": -67650,
      "staked_hundredths": 260000,
      "return_percent": "-26.02",
      "interval_low": "-70.46",
      "interval_high": "19.17",
      "interval_note": null,
      "period_from": "2025-04-30",
      "period_to": "2026-03-05",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 25,
       "return_main_percent": "-30.48",
       "return_other_percent": "-28.71",
       "settled_excluding_void": 25,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -76200,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -71767,
       "period_from": "2025-04-30",
       "period_to": "2026-03-05"
      },
      {
       "price": "Closing price, aggregator",
       "series_code": "retro_market_closing",
       "picks": 19,
       "return_main_percent": "1.24",
       "return_other_percent": "2.30",
       "settled_excluding_void": 19,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 2350,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 4363,
       "period_from": "2025-08-18",
       "period_to": "2026-03-05"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 15,
      "exact_hits": 2,
      "exact_rate": 13.3,
      "outcome_checked": 15,
      "outcome_hits": 5,
      "outcome_rate": 33.3,
      "baseline_matches": 15,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 15,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 5,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": 33.3,
      "favourite_hits": 6,
      "favourite_rate": 40.0,
      "price_basis": "last pre-match archive price",
      "pending": 1,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": [
       "Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.",
       "2 of 15 score forecasts named the exact score (13.3%).",
       "The result implied by the named score was right in 5 of 15 matches; the market favourite was right in 6 of the same 15 matches.",
       "The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off).",
       "The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win).",
       "These forecasts were found after the match; when they were made depends on the date the source gives."
      ]
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 51,
      "priced": 26
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 26,
      "won": 9,
      "won_percent": "34.6",
      "implied_percent": "49.6",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 4,
        "picks": 13,
        "implied_percent": "45.7"
       },
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 3,
        "picks": 10,
        "implied_percent": "55.8"
       },
       {
        "market": "Asian handicap",
        "won": 2,
        "picks": 2,
        "implied_percent": "51.7"
       },
       {
        "market": "Result and both teams to score",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "33.9"
       }
      ]
     }
    }
   ]
  },
  "live_alongside": null,
  "headline_record_ids": [
   "n-14a89eca18eb6a33ba72916b"
  ],
  "interval_low": null,
  "interval_high": null,
  "caption": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) · 100 points per pick · 8 April 2025 · Calculated · picks settled under reconstruction method 1.1",
  "record_from": "2024-08-18",
  "record_to": "2026-03-05"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
  {
   "record_id": "n-968ec255712b865d1be84059",
   "url": "/authors/gary-pearson/picks/4/#pick-n-968ec255712b865d1be84059",
   "match": "Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2026-03-05T20:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": -4964.1,
   "market_code": "total",
   "author_said": "Over/Under 2.5 goals: over 2.5 at 1.83",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Won",
   "claim_outcome": "Won",
   "final_score": "1-3",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": 8800,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": "1.8333",
   "settled_price": "1.8800",
   "published_at": "2026-03-05T19:10:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:07:27.058Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-968ec255712b865d1be84059",
    "quote_text": "Over 2.5 goals\n\n-120 via FanDuel",
    "fragment_from": 1347,
    "fragment_to": 1379,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "website",
     "url": "https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/soccer/tottenham-vs-crystal-palace-prediction-odds-picks-premier-league-best-bets-today-march-5-2026/",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Gary Pearson",
     "authorship": "channel_owner",
     "media_from_ms": null,
     "bundle_id": "230e58264b42cd4462bf7fc56fffa1019b2b17322895c7fb3987dbc03a7afe02",
     "material_removed": false
    },
    "published_at": "2026-03-05T19:10:00.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-09-28T16:07:27.058Z",
    "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:21:59.079Z",
    "statement_class": "priced",
    "status": "too_late",
    "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
    "cause_code": null,
    "event": {
     "event_id": null,
     "display_name": "Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace",
     "competition_name": "Premier League",
     "starts_at": "2026-03-05T20:00:00.000Z",
     "url": null,
     "scoreline": "1-3"
    },
    "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
    "outcome_label": "over 2.5",
    "odds_set": {
     "by_author": "1.8333",
     "our_snapshot": null,
     "our_snapshot_at": null,
     "our_snapshot_source": null,
     "closing": "1.8772",
     "closing_source": "aggregator closing price"
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
    "result": "win",
    "simulation_change_hundredths": 8772,
    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
    "executed_by": "ours",
    "series_label": "Restored, at the closing market price",
    "withdrawn": false,
    "provenance": "found_post_match",
    "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "dates": {
     "fragment_at": "2026-03-05T19:10:00.000Z",
     "fragment_basis": "page",
     "source_page_at": "2026-03-05T19:10:00.000Z",
     "detected_at": "2026-09-28T16:07:27.058Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [],
     "flag_words": null,
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "source_stated_date",
    "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
    "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "added_on": null,
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
     "choice": "over 2.5",
     "author_odds": "1.8333",
     "market_key": "total",
     "choice_key": "over",
     "period": "match",
     "line": "2.5",
     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "Over/Under 2.5 goals: over 2.5 at 1.83"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
     "result": "win",
     "scoreline": "1-3",
     "data_status": "measured",
     "cause": null,
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
     "in_words": "Won: the final score was Tottenham Hotspur 1-3 Crystal Palace."
    },
    "settlements": [
     {
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      "series_key": "retro_author_price",
      "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
      "choice": "over 2.5",
      "decimal_odds": "1.8333",
      "odds_role": "author_price",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
      "status_text": "Executed",
      "result": "win",
      "result_words": "Won",
      "change_hundredths": 8333,
      "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:21:59.072Z",
      "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
      "on_claim_market": true,
      "replaced": false
     },
     {
      "operation_id": "d24ac3588e53f4de7df74223037add2711e5fcb4e3808aa4221e000c09b67ebb",
      "series_key": "retro_market_closing",
      "series_label": "Restored, at the closing market price",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
      "choice": "over 2.5",
      "decimal_odds": "1.8772",
      "odds_role": "closing_odds",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
      "status_text": "Executed",
      "result": "win",
      "result_words": "Won",
      "change_hundredths": 8772,
      "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:21:59.079Z",
      "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
      "on_claim_market": true,
      "replaced": false
     },
     {
      "operation_id": "67ded06a89e3487ee08130caee81a177ac45504592e22887f465f467a4a0439d",
      "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm",
      "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
      "choice": "over 2.5",
      "decimal_odds": "1.8800",
      "odds_role": "closing_odds",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
      "status_text": "Executed",
      "result": "win",
      "result_words": "Won",
      "change_hundredths": 8800,
      "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:21:59.085Z",
      "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
      "on_claim_market": true,
      "replaced": false
     }
    ],
    "corrections": [],
    "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
    "authorship": {
     "material_author": "Gary Pearson",
     "publisher": "sportsbookreview.com",
     "forecaster": "Gary Pearson",
     "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
     "basis": null,
     "status": "not_named",
     "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
     "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
     "evidence_fragment": null,
     "material_url": "https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/soccer/tottenham-vs-crystal-palace-prediction-odds-picks-premier-league-best-bets-today-march-5-2026/",
     "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
     "verdict_by": null,
     "verdict_line": null
    },
    "correction": null,
    "choice_words": "over 2.5 (Over/Under 2.5 goals)"
   }
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-807b151efc5d95a20c5607d6",
   "url": "/authors/gary-pearson/picks/4/#pick-n-807b151efc5d95a20c5607d6",
   "match": "Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2026-03-05T20:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": -4964.1,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: Crystal Palace at 3",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Won",
   "claim_outcome": "Won",
   "final_score": "1-3",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": 18500,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": "3",
   "settled_price": "2.8500",
   "published_at": "2026-03-05T19:10:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:07:27.058Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-807b151efc5d95a20c5607d6",
    "quote_text": "Crystal Palace ML\n\n+200 via FanDuel",
    "fragment_from": 1294,
    "fragment_to": 1329,
    "quote_allowed": true,
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