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 "heading": "Francisco Tochón Rosales: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "Verified record: 36 settled picks by Francisco Tochón Rosales recorded before kick-off across 24 matches, 16 Oct 2026 – 7 Nov 2026.",
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  "body": "Forecast Record recorded 36 settled live picks by Francisco Tochón Rosales before kick-off across 24 matches between 16 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −14.4% on the total staked. Of the 117 predictions we hold for Francisco Tochón Rosales, 69 are linked to matches: 61 were recorded by us before kick-off and 8 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
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  "data": "2026-11-07",
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  "public_name": "Francisco Tochón Rosales",
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   "n_events": 24,
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   "ci_low": "-45.6253",
   "ci_high": "15.6481",
   "ci_method": "cluster_bootstrap",
   "price_source": "market_price",
   "coverage_percent": "86.11",
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  ],
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   {
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  "duplicates": 0,
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   "quote_text": "Kylian Mbappé acumula 13.36 Goles Esperados (xG), liderando esta métrica en la competición.",
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 ],
 "standing": null,
 "retro": null,
 "late": {
  "selected": 2,
  "by_proof": {
   "rss": 2
  },
  "double": 0,
  "span_from": "2026-10-21",
  "span_to": "2026-10-21",
  "body": "2 picks were published before kick-off and found by us only after the match had started. The time of publication is evidenced (the publisher's feed date: 2). Each is priced at the market price in our own price history at that moment; the author’s own stated price, where given, is a separate line. These picks are never mixed with the record kept before kick-off and do not enter rankings or the points bankroll. Our price history starts on 26 September 2026; for earlier picks the price at publication is unknown, and the closing price is shown on its own line, outside this series.",
  "series_list": [
   {
    "code_name": "publication_market_price",
    "display_name": "Market price at the evidenced time of publication",
    "n": 1,
    "roi": "280.0000",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "price_unknown": 1,
    "waiting": 0,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "late-1.0"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "publication_author_price",
    "display_name": "Author's own stated price",
    "n": 2,
    "roi": "171.0000",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "price_unknown": 0,
    "waiting": 0,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "late-1.0"
   }
  ],
  "methodology_version": "late-1.0"
 },
 "price_vs_market": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "threshold_percent": "5",
  "rows": [
   {
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "basis_words": "our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off)",
    "basis_short": "Our market price when we first recorded the pick",
    "compared": 37,
    "above": 3,
    "above_share_percent": "8.1",
    "below": 1,
    "within": 33,
    "median_difference_percent": "0.5",
    "not_comparable": 0,
    "disputed": 0,
    "status": "calculated"
   }
  ],
  "examples": [
   {
    "url": "/authors/francisco-tochon-rosales/picks/3/#pick-n-b88399241376b06bfadd50d6",
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "stated": "1.72",
    "market": "2.09",
    "difference_percent": "-17.7"
   },
   {
    "url": "/authors/francisco-tochon-rosales/picks/6/#pick-n-e5352cfd1076a2f93da79163",
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "stated": "1.53",
    "market": "1.31",
    "difference_percent": "16.8"
   }
  ],
  "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way."
 },
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "depor.com",
   "url": "https://depor.com/apuestas-deportivas/valencia-vs-real-madrid-pronosticos-apuestas-cuotas-07-11-2026/"
  },
  "observed_from": "2026-10-14",
  "observed_to": "2026-11-06",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "market_price",
  "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price",
  "restored": false,
  "headline_kind": "live_snapshot",
  "headline_part": "live",
  "settled_picks": 36,
  "matches": 24,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": -51681,
  "staked_hundredths": 360000,
  "return_percent": "-14.36",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2026-10-16",
  "period_to": "2026-11-07",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "2.2",
  "short_history": false,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record recorded 36 settled live picks by Francisco Tochón Rosales before kick-off across 24 matches between 16 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −14.4% on the total staked. Of the 117 predictions we hold for Francisco Tochón Rosales, 69 are linked to matches: 61 were recorded by us before kick-off and 8 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled live picks",
    "value": "36",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "24",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "−516.81 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "value": "−14.4%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": "95% interval −45.6% to +15.7%"
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [
   {
    "date": "2026-10-16",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 5050,
    "n": 1
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-21",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 20448,
    "n": 4
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-22",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 10448,
    "n": 5
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-24",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 20866,
    "n": 10
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-25",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 866,
    "n": 12
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-28",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -19134,
    "n": 14
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-29",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -7504,
    "n": 16
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-31",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -38124,
    "n": 22
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-01",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -49527,
    "n": 27
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-03",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -53645,
    "n": 29
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-04",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -50550,
    "n": 33
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-05",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -60550,
    "n": 34
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-07",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -51681,
    "n": 36
   }
  ],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": {
    "part": "live",
    "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.",
    "settled_picks": 36,
    "matches": 24,
    "match_dates": 13,
    "period_from": "2026-10-16",
    "period_to": "2026-11-07",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": -51681,
    "low": {
     "date": "2026-11-05",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -60550,
     "after_picks": 34
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2026-10-24",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 20866,
     "after_picks": 10
    },
    "line_drawn": true,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2026-10-16",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 5050,
      "n": 1,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-21",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 20448,
      "n": 4,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-22",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 10448,
      "n": 5,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-24",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 20866,
      "n": 10,
      "picks": 5
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-25",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 866,
      "n": 12,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-28",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -19134,
      "n": 14,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-29",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -7504,
      "n": 16,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-31",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -38124,
      "n": 22,
      "picks": 6
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-01",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -49527,
      "n": 27,
      "picks": 5
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-03",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -53645,
      "n": 29,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-04",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -50550,
      "n": 33,
      "picks": 4
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-05",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -60550,
      "n": 34,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-07",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -51681,
      "n": 36,
      "picks": 2
     }
    ]
   },
   "archived": null
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record recorded 36 settled live picks by Francisco Tochón Rosales before kick-off across 24 matches between 16 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −14.4% on the total staked. Of the 117 predictions we hold for Francisco Tochón Rosales, 69 are linked to matches: 61 were recorded by us before kick-off and 8 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/francisco-tochon-rosales/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "2.2"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 117,
   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 48,
   "proven_predictions": 61,
   "proven_checked": 51,
   "proven_measured": 36,
   "proven_dates": 16,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 61,
     "checked": 51,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 36,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 24,
      "net_points_hundredths": -51681,
      "staked_hundredths": 360000,
      "return_percent": "-14.36",
      "interval_low": "-45.63",
      "interval_high": "15.65",
      "interval_note": null,
      "period_from": "2026-10-16",
      "period_to": "2026-11-07",
      "method_version": "2.2",
      "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0",
      "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.0",
      "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 16
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "author_price",
       "picks": 31,
       "return_main_percent": "-25.86",
       "return_other_percent": "-25.52",
       "settled_excluding_void": 31,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -80169,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -79100,
       "period_from": "2026-10-16",
       "period_to": "2026-11-05"
      },
      {
       "price": "Closing price",
       "series_code": "closing_live",
       "picks": 30,
       "return_main_percent": "-22.42",
       "return_other_percent": "-17.22",
       "settled_excluding_void": 30,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -67248,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -51664,
       "period_from": "2026-10-21",
       "period_to": "2026-11-05"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 51,
      "priced": 36
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 36,
      "won": 20,
      "won_percent": "55.6",
      "implied_percent": "61.6",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 11,
        "picks": 21,
        "implied_percent": "63.7"
       },
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 3,
        "picks": 6,
        "implied_percent": "59.4"
       },
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 3,
        "picks": 4,
        "implied_percent": "55.9"
       },
       {
        "market": "Team goals",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 3,
        "implied_percent": "57.8"
       },
       {
        "market": "Double chance",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "68.4"
       },
       {
        "market": "Win to nil",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "57.6"
       }
      ]
     },
     "reviewed_after": {
      "predictions": 5,
      "right": 1,
      "wrong": 4,
      "other": 0
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 8,
     "checked": 2,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 2,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    }
   ]
  },
  "live_alongside": null,
  "headline_record_ids": [
   "n-07402b56d702b3100e1dc141",
   "n-0940b6b57304a0bbb3db21de",
   "n-0a8dd842322aa7f5e0306272",
   "n-11a001185b09d73b10083c91",
   "n-1ebc44bc502da2b67ddf892d",
   "n-24d8eaea64fabaf41b4fce17",
   "n-2d8aaae83d7cfa0caa82731c",
   "n-309fca1ba54ad6ddd0170f4e",
   "n-322b55ec11beb2867fdbf368",
   "n-3777c8b79145db838355a697",
   "n-394efc857e8420e38f19642c",
   "n-442aefa68edbcfaa69178c4b",
   "n-45fce6d7946d027a2e8a6217",
   "n-59dd7cba0af5a58cfe2be726",
   "n-5d2c7e5bfc1e55e378b7c7ff",
   "n-734269e33c0486c387eff02f",
   "n-88f13312f1b875aedec3f3bc",
   "n-897dde49050256433c04a7c3",
   "n-8ab54626e189f5eb43aa62c1",
   "n-90ad1f60533ceb749b838821",
   "n-937e4a06812f48487fbf424b",
   "n-9c1bdd5a01f316544055e349",
   "n-a12cc99288c8cd719ef882f8",
   "n-a6d4529b63ae7b8ba994b91a",
   "n-ac82c36fa0a80f32628fd2f1",
   "n-b88399241376b06bfadd50d6",
   "n-bb3a827c6e7ebab3256a2f1a",
   "n-bfa7e24ee5ef7fc78337a47f",
   "n-c29dc47f37810beaeb9371e7",
   "n-c301263b9617961509281ff2",
   "n-cb754d4bad95d13cd3d35b43",
   "n-cf9703fa795780ebde5c5e87",
   "n-d0daf4ed20c832973fdcebf4",
   "n-d1c2a9e0f6bf22310268dd20",
   "n-e2c4e4aec2feea2d0ee5ffa9",
   "n-e5352cfd1076a2f93da79163"
  ],
  "interval_low": "-45.63",
  "interval_high": "15.65",
  "caption": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price · 100 points per pick · 16 October – 7 November 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under method v2.2",
  "record_from": "2026-10-14",
  "record_to": "2026-11-07"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
  {
   "record_id": "n-c29dc47f37810beaeb9371e7",
   "url": "/authors/francisco-tochon-rosales/picks/7/#pick-n-c29dc47f37810beaeb9371e7",
   "match": "Arsenal v Hull City",
   "match_url": "/football/matches/arsenal-vs-hull-city-2026-11-07/",
   "kickoff": "2026-11-07T15:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": 20.8,
   "market_code": "win_to_nil",
   "author_said": "To win to nil: Arsenal to win to nil",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Won",
   "claim_outcome": "Won",
   "final_score": "1-0",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": 7350,
   "series_code": "market_price",
   "series_short": "odds snapshot",
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": "1.7350",
   "published_at": "2026-11-06T17:58:31.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-11-06T18:11:12.608Z",
   "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
   "record_part": "live",
   "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off",
   "in_headline": true,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-c29dc47f37810beaeb9371e7",
    "quote_text": "Apuesta de valor: Arsenal gana a cero\n\nEste mercado ofrece una cuota mucho más atractiva, respaldada por la eficiencia defensiva del equipo local. Arsenal mantuvo su portería invicta en tres de sus victorias en casa esta temporada, promediando un Goles Esperados en Contra (xGA) de apenas 0.57.",
    "fragment_from": 3358,
    "fragment_to": 3652,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "rss",
     "url": "https://depor.com/apuestas-deportivas/arsenal-vs-hull-pronosticos-apuestas-cuotas-07-11-2026/",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Francisco Tochón Rosales",
     "authorship": "channel_owner",
     "media_from_ms": null,
     "bundle_id": "abb1a2cd3b70cb28e00fd60bd5a022efaeaf16c71c0d02e5789908cdf17d7f25",
     "material_removed": false
    },
    "published_at": "2026-11-06T17:58:31.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-11-06T18:11:12.608Z",
    "executed_at": "2026-11-06T18:14:22.296Z",
    "statement_class": "unpriced",
    "status": "recognised",
    "cause": null,
    "cause_code": null,
    "event": {
     "event_id": "s-db14ccc3b614",
     "display_name": "Arsenal — Hull City",
     "competition_name": "Premier League",
     "starts_at": "2026-11-07T15:00:00.000Z",
     "url": "/football/matches/arsenal-vs-hull-city-2026-11-07/",
     "scoreline": "1-0",
     "condition": "finished"
    },
    "market_label": "To win to nil",
    "outcome_label": "Arsenal to win to nil",
    "odds_set": {
     "by_author": null,
     "our_snapshot": "1.7350",
     "our_snapshot_at": "2026-11-06T18:09:30.894Z",
     "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot",
     "closing": null,
     "closing_source": null
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
    "result": "win",
    "simulation_change_hundredths": 7350,
    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
    "executed_by": "ours",
    "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot",
    "withdrawn": false,
    "provenance": "recorded_pre_match",
    "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "dates": {
     "fragment_at": "2026-11-06T17:58:31.000Z",
     "fragment_basis": "element",
     "source_page_at": "2026-11-06T17:58:31.000Z",
     "detected_at": "2026-11-06T18:11:12.608Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
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   "published_at": "2026-09-04T17:16:50.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-11-03T15:30:11.165Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "record_part": "unlinked",
   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-fc6598bff7a6655ee33ce233",
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   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Málaga vs. Levante\n\nAmbos anotan\n\n1.85",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
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   "author_price": null,
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   "published_at": "2026-09-04T17:16:50.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-11-03T15:30:11.165Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "record_part": "unlinked",
   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
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   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-db87a0b9a0b35cc143d86356",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Alavés vs. Osasuna\n\nEmpate\n\n3.10",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2026-09-04T17:16:50.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-11-03T15:30:11.165Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "record_part": "unlinked",
   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-62dff7b351efb4c859c02fbf",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "victoria del Barcelona frente a Valencia",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2026-09-04T17:16:50.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-11-03T15:30:11.165Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "record_part": "unlinked",
   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-158549f585734afca87ab585",
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   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Villarreal vs. Deportivo\n\nGana Villarreal\n\n1.60",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2026-09-04T17:16:50.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-11-03T15:30:11.165Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "record_part": "unlinked",
   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-0321e443d0d86fc70c11f8c5",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Rayo Vallecano vs. Racing Santander\n\nGana Rayo Vallecano\n\n1.70",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2026-09-04T17:16:50.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-11-03T15:30:11.165Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "record_part": "unlinked",
   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-6db74caf68d94486064d81ec",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Athletic vs. Atlético Madrid\n\nMenos de 2.5 goles\n\n1.75",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2026-09-04T17:16:50.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-11-03T15:30:11.165Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "record_part": "unlinked",
   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-fa0c34fd4da023c3efe0cbe3",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Real Betis vs. Real Madrid\n\nGana Real Madrid\n\n1.80",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2026-09-04T17:16:50.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-11-03T15:30:11.165Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "record_part": "unlinked",
   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
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  }
 ],
 "lead_time": {
  "contract_version": 1,
  "threshold_hours": 2.0,
  "picks": 65,
  "before_kickoff": 63,
  "after_kickoff": 2,
  "at_least_2h": 63,
  "share_2h_plus": 96.9,
  "median_hours": 27.3,
  "min_hours": 4.0,
  "max_hours": 80.3,
  "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off."
 },
 "baseline": {
  "contract_version": 1,
  "series_code": "market_price",
  "rule": "recorded-line-1.0",
  "state": "settled",
  "picks": 22,
  "settled_picks_all": 36,
  "excluded": {
   "market_without_favourite": 5,
   "no_recorded_line": 9,
   "favourite_not_settled": 0
  },
  "staked_hundredths": 220000,
  "author_net_hundredths": -39504,
  "favourite_net_hundredths": -60504,
  "difference_hundredths": 21000,
  "author_return_percent": -17.96,
  "favourite_return_percent": -27.5,
  "author_hit_rate": 54.5,
  "favourite_hit_rate": 50.0,
  "picked_favourite_share": 95.5,
  "by_market": [
   {
    "market_code": "1x2",
    "picks": 16,
    "staked_hundredths": 160000,
    "author_net_hundredths": -33300,
    "favourite_net_hundredths": -33300,
    "author_hits": 9,
    "favourite_hits": 9,
    "picked_favourite": 16,
    "author_return_percent": -20.81,
    "favourite_return_percent": -20.81
   },
   {
    "market_code": "both_teams_score",
    "picks": 3,
    "staked_hundredths": 30000,
    "author_net_hundredths": 7623,
    "favourite_net_hundredths": -13377,
    "author_hits": 2,
    "favourite_hits": 1,
    "picked_favourite": 2,
    "author_return_percent": 25.41,
    "favourite_return_percent": -44.59
   },
   {
    "market_code": "total",
    "picks": 3,
    "staked_hundredths": 30000,
    "author_net_hundredths": -13827,
    "favourite_net_hundredths": -13827,
    "author_hits": 1,
    "favourite_hits": 1,
    "picked_favourite": 3,
    "author_return_percent": -46.09,
    "favourite_return_percent": -46.09
   }
  ],
  "return_over_time": [
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 2000,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 2000
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 4398,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 4398
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 15398,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -5602
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 5398,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -15602
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 11571,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -9429
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-24T17:45:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 18194,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -2806
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-24T19:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 20791,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -209
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-25T20:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 10791,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -10209
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-25T20:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 791,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -20209
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-28T20:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": -9209,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -30209
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-31T12:30:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": -19209,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -40209
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-31T12:30:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": -10876,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -31876
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-31T17:30:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": -20876,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -41876
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-31T19:45:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": -30876,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -51876
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-31T20:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": -29829,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -50829
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-11-01T19:45:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": -39829,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -60829
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-11-01T20:30:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": -31632,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -52632
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-11-03T20:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": -25750,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -46750
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-11-04T01:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": -21874,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -42874
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-11-04T17:45:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": -31874,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -52874
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-11-04T17:45:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": -29504,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -50504
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-11-05T01:30:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": -39504,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -60504
   }
  ],
  "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out."
 },
 "pagination": {
  "per_page": 20,
  "total": 117,
  "pages": 7,
  "page_urls": [
   "/authors/francisco-tochon-rosales/",
   "/authors/francisco-tochon-rosales/picks/2/",
   "/authors/francisco-tochon-rosales/picks/3/",
   "/authors/francisco-tochon-rosales/picks/4/",
   "/authors/francisco-tochon-rosales/picks/5/",
   "/authors/francisco-tochon-rosales/picks/6/",
   "/authors/francisco-tochon-rosales/picks/7/"
  ],
  "groups": {
   "settled": 38,
   "pending": 7,
   "excluded": 72
  },
  "continuation": "by_time",
  "page": 1,
  "first": 1,
  "last": 20,
  "author_url": "/authors/francisco-tochon-rosales/",
  "current": true
 },
 "title_tag": "Francisco Tochón Rosales Predictions: Picks & Verified Record",
 "calculator": {
  "url": "/tools/luck-or-skill/?n=36&odds=1.91&roi=-14.4&src=record",
  "n": 36,
  "odds": "1.91",
  "roi": "-14.4",
  "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price"
 },
 "person": {
  "person_id": "o-befa02318bfbb1f54272bf17",
  "type_code": "individual",
  "name_shown": "Francisco Tochón Rosales",
  "main_entity": "e-befa02318bfbb1f54272bf17",
  "identity": {
   "status": "not_verified",
   "is_verified": false,
   "when": null,
   "source_list": []
  },
  "platform_list": [
   {
    "entity_ref": "e-befa02318bfbb1f54272bf17",
    "medium": "Depor — Apuestas deportivas",
    "channel": "RSS feed",
    "domain": "depor.com",
    "source_info": null,
    "byline": "Francisco Tochón Rosales",
    "url": null,
    "summary": {
     "statements": 254,
     "predictions": 117,
     "settled_picks": 36,
     "headline_kind": "live_snapshot",
     "return_percent": -14.36,
     "headline_part": "live",
     "period_from": "2026-10-14",
     "period_to": "2026-11-06"
    }
   }
  ],
  "previously": [],
  "trust_tier": "probation"
 },
 "data_revision": {
  "data_version": "2026-11-07.2",
  "updated": "2026-11-07",
  "current_release": "2026-11-07.2",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "method_version": "2.2",
  "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
  "series_code": "market_price",
  "sample": {
   "settled_picks": 36,
   "matches": 24,
   "void": 0,
   "period_from": "2026-10-16",
   "period_to": "2026-11-07",
   "composition_hash": "abbcb7e420562cc09336f3c1949606ff6b49fbccbfc4d737b0839c366b1f710d"
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  "changes_url": "#changes",
  "corrections_url": "/corrections/"
 },
 "number_changes": [
  {
   "id": "zc-af4c60c84ac2ad99c146",
   "at": "2026-11-07T20:05:20.937Z",
   "data_version": "2026-11-07.2",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-11-07.1",
   "url": "/authors/francisco-tochon-rosales/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
   "category_words": "Coverage extended",
   "before": {
    "data_version": "2026-11-05.1",
    "return_percent": "-16.53",
    "settled_picks": 29,
    "matches": 21,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "4e67a1fd9785208298b87b4e79e31effa023f6814f601e06d03ca53b8f411aba",
    "text": "−16.53% on 29 settled picks across 21 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-11-07.2",
    "return_percent": "-14.36",
    "settled_picks": 36,
    "matches": 24,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "abbcb7e420562cc09336f3c1949606ff6b49fbccbfc4d737b0839c366b1f710d",
    "text": "−14.36% on 36 settled picks across 24 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 5 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture); also 2 new results.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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    "removed": 0,
    "changed": 0
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   "correction_id": null
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  {
   "id": "zc-a3319e939c3e52b2edc3",
   "at": "2026-11-05T05:43:48.128Z",
   "data_version": "2026-11-05.1",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-11-04.3",
   "url": "/authors/francisco-tochon-rosales/",
   "category": "new_results",
   "category_words": "New results",
   "before": {
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    "return_percent": "-14.87",
    "settled_picks": 25,
    "matches": 18,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "bb618eff098e75820acb65c04237b48177dd4435962d895c714c009929181621",
    "text": "−14.87% on 25 settled picks across 18 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-11-05.1",
    "return_percent": "-16.53",
    "settled_picks": 29,
    "matches": 21,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "4e67a1fd9785208298b87b4e79e31effa023f6814f601e06d03ca53b8f411aba",
    "text": "−16.53% on 29 settled picks across 21 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "4 new settled picks from matches played after the previous data version.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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    "removed": 0,
    "changed": 0
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   "correction_id": null
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  {
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   "at": "2026-11-04T11:13:27.171Z",
   "data_version": "2026-11-04.2",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-11-04.1",
   "url": "/authors/francisco-tochon-rosales/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
   "category_words": "Coverage extended",
   "before": {
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    "return_percent": "-17.10",
    "settled_picks": 24,
    "matches": 17,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "84ae5120f56b394d9f48f45bdb6c599cddf29bc5de2fa7a78fd59c8faebb4ce2",
    "text": "−17.10% on 24 settled picks across 17 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-11-04.2",
    "return_percent": "-14.87",
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    "text": "−14.87% on 25 settled picks across 18 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
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   },
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  },
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   "url": "/authors/francisco-tochon-rosales/",
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   },
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    "return_percent": "-17.10",
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    "text": "−17.10% on 24 settled picks across 17 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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   },
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  {
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   "url": "/authors/francisco-tochon-rosales/",
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   },
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   },
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  {
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   "url": "/authors/francisco-tochon-rosales/",
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    "text": "−21.49% on 21 settled picks across 14 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 3 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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    "text": "−14.54% on 18 settled picks across 12 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
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   },
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   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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   },
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  {
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    "text": "−13.67% on 14 settled picks across 9 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
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   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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    "text": "+0.72% on 12 settled picks across 8 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
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   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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    "composition_hash": "c808ab6815f6addf929d82fefd8fb8884158f769d6ab14ae001ad77b14e4ab79",
    "text": "+20.87% on 10 settled picks across 7 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
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   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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   },
   "after": {
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    "composition_hash": "21cc097f6945db9cd76edb65c429a1e61749af554ce1bc73f25485ac6e941b73",
    "text": "+220.96 points on 7 settled picks across 5 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
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   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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    "composition_hash": "762e77838695c11f6764f4c2a51cc3931e18e742389b9f81e3ac1e5e077d1e6a",
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    "text": "+104.48 points on 5 settled picks across 4 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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    "composition_hash": "762e77838695c11f6764f4c2a51cc3931e18e742389b9f81e3ac1e5e077d1e6a",
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   },
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   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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 ],
 "current_predictions": {
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    "match": "Manchester United v Aston Villa",
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    "kickoff": "2026-11-08T16:30:00.000Z",
    "competition": "Premier League",
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   },
   {
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   },
   {
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    "kickoff": "2026-11-08T17:00:00.000Z",
    "competition": "Serie A",
    "author_said": "Over/Under 3.25 goals: under 3.25 at 1.85",
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    "recorded_at": "2026-11-06T17:40:34.850Z",
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   },
   {
    "record_id": "n-bb75670795985c138824184f",
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    "match": "Atlético Madrid v FC Barcelona",
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    "kickoff": "2026-11-08T20:00:00.000Z",
    "competition": "LaLiga",
    "author_said": "1X2, match result: FC Barcelona at 1.8",
    "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "recorded_at": "2026-11-06T17:50:27.979Z",
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   },
   {
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    "match": "Universitario de Deportes v CD Moquegua",
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    "kickoff": "2026-11-09T01:30:00.000Z",
    "competition": "Liga 1",
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 },
 "counts_by_slice": {
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