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outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-c5ff924e77391d291ec0d87d", "url": "/authors/francesco-cavallini/picks/2/#pick-n-c5ff924e77391d291ec0d87d", "quote_text": "la sfida si disputa allo Stadio Olimpico di Roma alle ore 21 di mercoledì 14 ottobre 2026 e sarà visibile in esclusiva attraverso Amazon Prime Video.\n\nIl ritorno romanista in Champions è iniziato con il piede giusto, visto che nella prima giornata la squadra giallorossa ha ottenuto un buon punto contro il Fenerbahce, andando a pareggiare per 1-1 su un campo ostico come quello dei turchi.\n\nL'Olimpico sarà il dodicesimo uomo in campo\n\nUn buon viatico visto un calendario non semplice, che dopo il Real vedrà i capitolini affrontare lo Slovan Bratislava all’Olimpico prima di una doppia trasferta da brividi, a Old Trafford contro il Manchester United e al Parc des Princes contro il Paris Saint-Germain.\n\nE i problemi non sono finiti, perchè poi alla Roma tocca lo Sporting in casa, il match esterno ad Atene con l’AEK e poi la chiusura nella Capitale contro il Lille.\n\nPartenza ottima invece per il Real, che nel primo turno ha sfidato un’altra big, l’Inter, portando a casa i tre punti. I Blanco hanno vinto al Bernabeu per 2-1, capitalizzando gli errori della difesa nerazzurra. Le Merengues dopo la Roma dovranno affrontare Lipsia, AEK, PSV, Arsenal, LASK e Shakhtar, in un calendario che non dovrebbe creare problemi a un club che, giova sempre ricordarlo, detiene il record di Coppe dei Campioni e Champions League vinte, ben 15.\n\nI precedenti tra Roma e Madrid\n\nChe nelle coppe si giochi Roma-Real Madrid non è esattamente una novità, visto che le due squadre si sono già affrontate 12 volte nella loro storia, sempre in Champions League. Il bilancio è nettamente a favore del Real, con 8 vittorie, contro le 3 della Roma e un solo pari, ma non racconta tutta la storia.\n\nDai tempi del loro primo incrocio (in un purtroppo indimenticabile 11 settembre 2001), ci sono stati diversi match nei gironi e due scontri da dentro o fuori. 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null, "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:41:06.996Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "priced", "status": "not_supported", "cause": "", "cause_code": "not_supported", "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": null, "fragment_basis": "no", "source_page_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:41:06.996Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [ "no_date" ], "flag_words": "The source states no publication date.", "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": null, "correction": null } ], "standing": { "titles": [ { "code_name": "S-01", "display_name": "4 matches in a row, every pick correct · 14 Oct–18 Oct 2026", "received_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "window_kind": "event", "cause": null, "type_code": null, "bucket_code": "all", "bucket": "Correct run", "measure": null, "place": null, "out_of": null, "n_bets": 4, "n_events": null, "amount": null, "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "ci_level": null, "fact": "4 matches in a row, every pick correct · 14 Oct–18 Oct 2026", "rationale": "4 different matches in a row with every counted pick correct, first to last within 28 days; matches kicking off at the same time count as one group. The run ended on Sampdoria v Arezzo. Data: live record. Term: a dated fact.", "provenance": "live", "rules_version": "catalog-1", "methodology_version": "catalog-1", "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "valid_until": null, "anchor_id": "standing-s-01-all-event", "alt": "Francesco Cavallini · 4 matches in a row, every pick correct · 14 Oct–18 Oct 2026 · Tracked by Forecast Record", "csv_url": null, "embed": "\"Francesco", "neighbours": [], "window_words": "On show until 15 Feb 2027", "measure_words": null, "amount_words": null, "interval_words": null, "title_tier": "dated_record", "status": "active", "status_reason": null, "event_at": "2026-10-18", "evidence_through": "2026-10-18", "earned_at": "2026-10-18", "published_at": "2026-10-19", "visible_until": "2027-02-15", "badge_label": "4 right in a row · 18 Oct", "scope_words": null, "title_id": "zk-45dbde7bee690e20b5cb", "evidence_items": [ { "nid": "n-170098d4615175f4ed820ecb", "data": "2026-10-14", "match": "Feyenoord v Como", "said_text": "Over/Under 1.5 goals, first half: over 1.5", "outcome_label": "right", "evidence_price": null, "comparison": null, "url": "/authors/francesco-cavallini/picks/2/#pick-n-170098d4615175f4ed820ecb" }, { "nid": "n-c5ff924e77391d291ec0d87d", "data": "2026-10-14", "match": "AS Roma v Real Madrid", "said_text": "Over/Under 3.5 goals: over 3.5", "outcome_label": "right", "evidence_price": null, "comparison": null, "url": "/authors/francesco-cavallini/picks/2/#pick-n-c5ff924e77391d291ec0d87d" }, { "nid": "n-0cae0b976f9d0a5fa46ee15a", "data": "2026-10-16", "match": "Frosinone v Sassuolo", "said_text": "Over/Under 3.5 goals: over 3.5 at 2.1", "outcome_label": "right", "evidence_price": null, "comparison": null, "url": "/authors/francesco-cavallini/picks/2/#pick-n-0cae0b976f9d0a5fa46ee15a" }, { "nid": "n-a7efde94a817d6dead2d532f", "data": "2026-10-18", "match": "AC Milan v Atalanta", "said_text": "Over/Under 2.5 goals: over 2.5", "outcome_label": "right", "evidence_price": null, "comparison": null, "url": "/authors/francesco-cavallini/picks/3/#pick-n-a7efde94a817d6dead2d532f" } ], "evidence_total": 4, "badge": { "variants": [ { "size": "l", "theme": "light", "width": 1234, "height": 40, "url": "/b/e-0704393b711c74a38904fa9f/s-01-all-event-l-light.svg" }, { "size": "l", "theme": "dark", "width": 1234, "height": 40, "url": "/b/e-0704393b711c74a38904fa9f/s-01-all-event-l-dark.svg" }, { "size": "m", "theme": "light", "width": 908, "height": 28, "url": "/b/e-0704393b711c74a38904fa9f/s-01-all-event-m-light.svg" }, { "size": "m", "theme": "dark", "width": 908, "height": 28, "url": "/b/e-0704393b711c74a38904fa9f/s-01-all-event-m-dark.svg" }, { "size": "s", "theme": "light", "width": 709, "height": 20, "url": "/b/e-0704393b711c74a38904fa9f/s-01-all-event-s-light.svg" }, { "size": "s", "theme": "dark", "width": 709, "height": 20, "url": "/b/e-0704393b711c74a38904fa9f/s-01-all-event-s-dark.svg" } ], "card_url": "/b/e-0704393b711c74a38904fa9f/s-01-all-event-card.svg" }, "profile_anchor": "title-45dbde7bee69", "chance": { "contract_version": 1, "kind": "streak", "priced": 1, "unpriced": 3, "hits": 1, "probability": 0.462963, "one_in": 2, "log10": -0.33, "words": "1 in 2", "rule": "product of the market probabilities (1/price) of every pick in the run", "note": "market prices include the bookmaker margin, so the chance is slightly overstated — a cautious figure" }, "embed_anchor": "title-correct-run" } ], "publication_mode": "top20", "empty_reason": null, "rules_version": "catalog-1", "insufficient": [], "badges_on_page": 0, "header_titles": [ { "title_id": "zk-45dbde7bee690e20b5cb", "code_name": "S-01", "title_tier": "dated_record", "badge_label": "4 right in a row · 18 Oct", "body": "4 matches in a row, every pick correct · 14 Oct–18 Oct 2026", "tier": null, "provenance": "live", "anchor_id": "title-45dbde7bee69", "event_at": "2026-10-18", "url": "/titles/s-01-correct-run/#zk-45dbde7bee690e20b5cb" } ], "record_origin": [], "recent_record": [ { "code_name": "S-01", "body": "4 matches in a row, every pick correct · 14 Oct–18 Oct 2026", "event_at": "2026-10-18", "url": null, "provenance": "live", "anchor_id": "title-45dbde7bee69" } ], "record_details": [], "history": [] }, "retro": null, "late": null, "price_vs_market": { "contract_version": "1", "threshold_percent": "5", "rows": [ { "basis": "snapshot", "basis_words": "our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off)", "basis_short": "Our market price when we first recorded the pick", "compared": 4, "above": 0, "above_share_percent": "0.0", "below": 2, "within": 2, "median_difference_percent": "-4.0", "not_comparable": 0, "disputed": 0, "status": "calculated" } ], "examples": [ { "url": "/authors/francesco-cavallini/picks/3/#pick-n-4ab50f07ed4140f524a7b285", "basis": "snapshot", "stated": "1.95", "market": "2.11", "difference_percent": "-7.6" }, { "url": "/authors/francesco-cavallini/picks/2/#pick-n-0cbeceaf0ea2b05eb671887b", "basis": "snapshot", "stated": "1.97", "market": "2.08", "difference_percent": "-5.3" } ], "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way." }, "record_summary": { "contract_version": "1", "entity_type": "person", "entity_words": "Individual author", "source": { "name": "williamhill.it", "url": "https://www.williamhill.it/news/pronostico-napoli-roma-24-ottobre" }, "observed_from": "2026-10-09", "observed_to": "2026-10-21", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "state": "settled", "series_code": "market_price", "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price", "restored": false, "headline_kind": "live_snapshot", "headline_part": "live", "settled_picks": 4, "matches": 4, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": 41192, "staked_hundredths": 40000, "return_percent": "102.98", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "period_from": "2026-10-10", "period_to": "2026-10-19", "status": "calculated", "method_version": "2.2", "short_history": true, "reason": null, "reasons": [], "sentence": "Forecast Record recorded 4 settled live picks by Francesco Cavallini before kick-off across 4 matches between 10 and 19 October 2026. Won 4 of 4 settled live picks at our recorded market prices. Of the 35 predictions we hold for Francesco Cavallini, 17 are linked to matches: 17 were recorded by us before kick-off. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "numbers": [ { "label": "Settled live picks", "value": "4", "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick", "note": null }, { "label": "Matches", "value": "4", "anchor": "/methodology/#match", "note": null }, { "label": "Net result", "value": "+411.92 points", "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement", "note": "100 points per pick" }, { "label": "Return at our recorded market price", "value": "+103.0%", "anchor": "/methodology/#roi", "note": null } ], "limitations": [], "other_series": [], "return_over_time": [], "return_over_time_parts": { "live": { "part": "live", "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "x_axis": "match_date", "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.", "settled_picks": 4, "matches": 4, "match_dates": 4, "period_from": "2026-10-10", "period_to": "2026-10-19", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "final_points_hundredths": 41192, "low": { "date": "2026-10-10", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 7692, "after_picks": 1 }, "high": { "date": "2026-10-19", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 41192, "after_picks": 4 }, "line_drawn": false, "steps": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 7692, "n": 1, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-12", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 18492, "n": 2, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-16", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 30092, "n": 3, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-19", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 41192, "n": 4, "picks": 1 } ] }, "archived": null }, "author_response": null, "cite": { "text": "Forecast Record recorded 4 settled live picks by Francesco Cavallini before kick-off across 4 matches between 10 and 19 October 2026. Won 4 of 4 settled live picks at our recorded market prices. Of the 35 predictions we hold for Francesco Cavallini, 17 are linked to matches: 17 were recorded by us before kick-off. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/francesco-cavallini/", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "2.2" }, "origin": { "contract_version": "1", "predictions": 35, "under_review": 0, "no_match_linked": 18, "proven_predictions": 17, "proven_checked": 17, "proven_measured": 4, "proven_dates": 10, "parts": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.", "predictions": 17, "checked": 17, "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "series_code": "market_price", "main": { "settled_picks": 4, "void": 0, "matches": 4, "net_points_hundredths": 41192, "staked_hundredths": 40000, "return_percent": "102.98", "interval_low": null, "interval_high": null, "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval", "period_from": "2026-10-10", "period_to": "2026-10-19", "method_version": "2.2", "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0", "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.1", "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 3 }, "same_picks": [ { "price": "Author-quoted price", "series_code": "author_price", "picks": 4, "return_main_percent": "102.98", "return_other_percent": "93.75", "settled_excluding_void": 4, "net_main_points_hundredths": 41192, "net_other_points_hundredths": 37500, "period_from": "2026-10-10", "period_to": "2026-10-19" }, { "price": "Closing price", "series_code": "closing_live", "picks": 4, "return_main_percent": "102.98", "return_other_percent": "115.50", "settled_excluding_void": 4, "net_main_points_hundredths": 41192, "net_other_points_hundredths": 46200, "period_from": "2026-10-10", "period_to": "2026-10-19" } ], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 17, "priced": 4 }, "accuracy": { "picks": 4, "won": 4, "won_percent": "100.0", "implied_percent": "49.6", "left_out": 0, "by_market": [ { "market": "Over/under goals", "won": 4, "picks": 4, "implied_percent": "49.6" } ] }, "reviewed_after": { "predictions": 10, "right": 5, "wrong": 5, "other": 0 } }, { "code": "archived", "title": "Archived before kick-off", "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.", "predictions": 0, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null }, { "code": "found_after", "title": "Found after the match", "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.", "predictions": 0, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null } ] }, "live_alongside": null, "headline_record_ids": [ "n-0cae0b976f9d0a5fa46ee15a", "n-0cbeceaf0ea2b05eb671887b", "n-4ab50f07ed4140f524a7b285", "n-8a167c85709dfd14a4f4ed1c" ], "interval_low": null, "interval_high": null, "caption": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price · 100 points per pick · 10–19 October 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under method v2.2", "record_from": "2026-10-09", "record_to": "2026-10-21" }, "recorded_picks": [ { "record_id": "n-6a3608efefcdc52113e1e12a", "url": "/authors/francesco-cavallini/picks/3/#pick-n-6a3608efefcdc52113e1e12a", "match": "Como v Manchester United", "match_url": "/football/matches/como-vs-manchester-united-2026-10-21/", "kickoff": "2026-10-21T16:45:00.000Z", "competition": "UEFA Champions League", "lead_hours": 73.0, "market_code": "total", "author_said": "Over/Under 3.5 goals: over 3.5 at 2.27", "quote": null, "group": "settled", "outcome": "Won", "claim_outcome": "Won", "final_score": "4-1", "reason": null, "reason_code": null, "points_hundredths": 12700, "series_code": "author_price", "series_short": "author's odds", "author_price": "2.27", "settled_price": "2.27", "published_at": null, "recorded_at": "2026-10-18T15:45:38.146Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-6a3608efefcdc52113e1e12a", "quote_text": "Dopo aver incantato domenica nel primo tempo di Firenze, Como leggermente favorito a quota 2.27: allo stesso valore, ragionare sull'Over 3.5 rappresenta un'opzione in più a disposizione dei nostri utenti registrati al sito italiano.", "fragment_from": 4026, "fragment_to": 4258, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.williamhill.it/news/pronostico-como-manchester-united", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Francesco Cavallini", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "8a473376854b32c5323b41a4c9119b522161dd56c32e95ce9599efe188f13320", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-10-18T15:45:38.146Z", "executed_at": "2026-10-20T00:19:51.993Z", "statement_class": "priced", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": "s-26ab5e4e5ad9", "display_name": "Como — Manchester United", "competition_name": "UEFA Champions League", "starts_at": "2026-10-21T16:45:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/como-vs-manchester-united-2026-10-21/", "scoreline": "4-1", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "Over/Under 3.5 goals", "outcome_label": "over 3.5", "odds_set": { "by_author": "2.27", "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "win", "simulation_change_hundredths": 12700, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": "ours", "series_label": "At the 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