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"fragment_at": "2026-10-08T16:39:45.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-10-08T16:39:45.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-17T15:13:09.871Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "found_after_match", "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Over/Under 2.75 goals", "choice": "over 2.75", "author_odds": "1.909", "market_key": "total", "choice_key": "over", "period": "match", "line": "2.75", "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Over/Under 2.75 goals: over 2.75 at 1.91" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "unknown", "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "awaiting a final score for this restored pick", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Pending: awaiting a final score for this restored pick." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": 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restored-history series", "cause_code": "not_supported", "event": { "event_id": null, "display_name": "Aston Villa v Brentford", "competition_name": "Premier League", "starts_at": "2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z", "url": null, "scoreline": null }, "market_label": "Draw no bet", "outcome_label": "Brentford", "odds_set": { "by_author": "1.925", "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "unknown", "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "found_post_match", "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-08T16:39:45.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-10-08T16:39:45.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-17T15:13:09.871Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "found_after_match", "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Draw no bet", "choice": "Brentford", "author_odds": "1.925", "market_key": "draw_no_bet", "choice_key": "2", "period": "match", "line": null, "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Draw no bet: Brentford at 1.93" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "unknown", "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "awaiting a final score for this restored pick", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Pending: awaiting a final score for this restored pick." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "380f2735197d4796d3481d052ec43fc22e6dfa56981128226905f7ad44b033a3", "series_key": "retro_author_price", "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Draw no bet", "choice": "Brentford", "decimal_odds": "1.925", "odds_role": "author_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "skipped", "status_text": "Not executed: not settled", "result": "unknown", "result_words": "Pending", "change_hundredths": null, "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:26:02.199Z", "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": { "material_author": "Fastasashark", "publisher": "Ylikerroin", "forecaster": "Fastasashark", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://forum.ylikerroin.com/viewtopic.php?p=651074&t=59287", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-4674f981819a747229f7e7b9", "url": "/authors/fastasashark/picks/2/#pick-n-4674f981819a747229f7e7b9", "quote_text": "VETO=Leeds +1.25\nKERROIN=1.943", "fragment_from": 408, "fragment_to": 438, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "rss", "url": "https://forum.ylikerroin.com/viewtopic.php?p=651074&t=59287", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Fastasashark", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "e51eba9e64b7d016024b21f8b72ca785cd87c7f3a3270820535bdcac7249054a", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-08T16:39:45.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-17T15:13:09.871Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "priced", "status": "too_late", "cause": "counted in the restored-history series", "cause_code": "not_supported", "event": { "event_id": null, "display_name": "Arsenal v Leeds United", "competition_name": "Premier League", "starts_at": "2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z", "url": null, "scoreline": null }, "market_label": "Asian handicap 1.25", "outcome_label": "Leeds United +1.25", "odds_set": { "by_author": "1.943", "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "unknown", "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "found_post_match", "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-08T16:39:45.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-10-08T16:39:45.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-17T15:13:09.871Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "found_after_match", "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Asian handicap 1.25", "choice": "Leeds United +1.25", "author_odds": "1.943", "market_key": "handicap_asian", "choice_key": "2", "period": "match", "line": "1.25", "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Asian handicap 1.25: Leeds United +1.25 at 1.94" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "unknown", "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "awaiting a final score for this restored pick", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Pending: awaiting a final score for this restored pick." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "4127f7a70b7fec90aa5800e9c44d221b0b31450b9ec57512da611948f1e61749", "series_key": "retro_author_price", "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Asian handicap 1.25", "choice": "Leeds United +1.25", "decimal_odds": "1.943", "odds_role": "author_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "skipped", "status_text": "Not executed: not settled", "result": "unknown", "result_words": "Pending", "change_hundredths": null, "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:26:02.187Z", "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": { "material_author": "Fastasashark", "publisher": "Ylikerroin", "forecaster": "Fastasashark", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://forum.ylikerroin.com/viewtopic.php?p=651074&t=59287", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null } ], "standing": null, "retro": null, "late": null, "price_vs_market": { "contract_version": "1", "threshold_percent": "5", "rows": [ { "basis": "snapshot", "basis_words": "our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off)", "basis_short": "Our market price when we first recorded the pick", "compared": 10, "above": 0, "above_share_percent": "0.0", "below": 0, "within": 10, "median_difference_percent": "1.9", "not_comparable": 0, "disputed": 0, "status": "calculated" } ], "examples": [], "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way." }, "record_summary": { "contract_version": "1", "entity_type": "person", "entity_words": "Individual author", "source": { "name": "forum.ylikerroin.com", "url": "https://forum.ylikerroin.com/viewtopic.php?p=652512&t=59287" }, "observed_from": "2026-10-17", "observed_to": "2026-10-30", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "state": "settled", "series_code": "market_price", "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price", "restored": false, "headline_kind": "live_snapshot", "headline_part": "live", "settled_picks": 10, "matches": 6, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -17292, "staked_hundredths": 100000, "return_percent": "-17.29", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "period_from": "2026-10-24", "period_to": "2026-10-31", "status": "calculated", "method_version": "2.2", "short_history": true, "reason": null, "reasons": [], "sentence": "Forecast Record recorded 10 settled live picks by Fastasashark before kick-off across 6 matches between 24 and 31 October 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −17.3% on the total staked. Of the 45 predictions we hold for Fastasashark, 34 are linked to matches: 20 were recorded by us before kick-off and 14 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "numbers": [ { "label": "Settled live picks", "value": "10", "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick", "note": null }, { "label": "Matches", "value": "6", "anchor": "/methodology/#match", "note": null }, { "label": "Net result", "value": "−172.92 points", "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement", "note": "100 points per pick" }, { "label": "Return at our recorded market price", "value": "−17.3%", "anchor": "/methodology/#roi", "note": null } ], "limitations": [], "other_series": [], "return_over_time": [ { "date": "2026-10-24", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 9250, "n": 3 }, { "date": "2026-10-25", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -15988, "n": 8 }, { "date": "2026-10-31", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -17292, "n": 10 } ], "return_over_time_parts": { "live": { "part": "live", "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "x_axis": "match_date", "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.", "settled_picks": 10, "matches": 6, "match_dates": 3, "period_from": "2026-10-24", "period_to": "2026-10-31", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "final_points_hundredths": -17292, "low": { "date": "2026-10-31", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -17292, "after_picks": 10 }, "high": { "date": "2026-10-24", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 9250, "after_picks": 3 }, "line_drawn": true, "steps": [ { "date": "2026-10-24", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 9250, "n": 3, "picks": 3 }, { "date": "2026-10-25", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -15988, "n": 8, "picks": 5 }, { "date": "2026-10-31", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -17292, "n": 10, "picks": 2 } ] }, "archived": null }, "author_response": null, "cite": { "text": "Forecast Record recorded 10 settled live picks by Fastasashark before kick-off across 6 matches between 24 and 31 October 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −17.3% on the total staked. Of the 45 predictions we hold for Fastasashark, 34 are linked to matches: 20 were recorded by us before kick-off and 14 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/fastasashark/", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "2.2" }, "origin": { "contract_version": "1", "predictions": 45, "under_review": 0, "no_match_linked": 11, "proven_predictions": 20, "proven_checked": 20, "proven_measured": 10, "proven_dates": 4, "parts": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.", "predictions": 20, "checked": 20, "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "series_code": "market_price", "main": { "settled_picks": 10, "void": 0, "matches": 6, "net_points_hundredths": -17292, "staked_hundredths": 100000, "return_percent": "-17.29", "interval_low": null, "interval_high": null, "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval", "period_from": "2026-10-24", "period_to": "2026-10-31", "method_version": "2.2", "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0", "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.0", "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 0 }, "same_picks": [ { "price": "Author-quoted price", "series_code": "author_price", "picks": 10, "return_main_percent": "-17.29", "return_other_percent": "-16.32", "settled_excluding_void": 10, "net_main_points_hundredths": -17292, "net_other_points_hundredths": -16320, "period_from": "2026-10-24", "period_to": "2026-10-31" }, { "price": "Closing price", "series_code": "closing_live", "picks": 6, "return_main_percent": "-1.74", "return_other_percent": "-3.65", "settled_excluding_void": 6, "net_main_points_hundredths": -1042, "net_other_points_hundredths": -2190, "period_from": "2026-10-24", "period_to": "2026-10-31" } ], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 20, "priced": 10 }, "accuracy": { "picks": 9, "won": 4, "won_percent": "44.4", "implied_percent": "52.9", "left_out": 1, "by_market": [ { "market": "Over/under goals", "won": 4, "picks": 5, "implied_percent": "52.0" }, { "market": "Asian handicap", "won": 0, "picks": 4, "implied_percent": "54.0" } ] }, "reviewed_after": { "predictions": 10, "right": 6, "wrong": 4, "other": 0 } }, { "code": "archived", "title": "Archived before kick-off", "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.", "predictions": 0, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null }, { "code": "found_after", "title": "Found after the match", "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.", "predictions": 14, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null } ] }, "live_alongside": null, "headline_record_ids": [ "n-118eafa1e0674e644bb69c9b", "n-26a44bfb0715aec2028d5170", "n-3081a6e4cc531b90eed88bba", "n-4a43b31a8ef7390dde4a3a45", "n-61ec70b0dac9ba885e537b1e", "n-6df5579389b403fd775d77f2", "n-7d6edf00b1875e43bd52f575", "n-889339fa357cecbf969dd80a", "n-c5ae18a388be1c0569bce89f", "n-e5364936a32de75a8d5ddca0" ], "interval_low": null, "interval_high": null, "caption": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price · 100 points per pick · 24–31 October 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under method v2.2", "record_from": "2026-10-17", "record_to": "2026-10-31" }, "recorded_picks": [ { "record_id": "n-4a43b31a8ef7390dde4a3a45", "url": "/authors/fastasashark/picks/3/#pick-n-4a43b31a8ef7390dde4a3a45", "match": "Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace", "match_url": "/football/matches/tottenham-hotspur-vs-crystal-palace-2026-10-31/", "kickoff": "2026-10-31T17:30:00.000Z", "competition": "Premier League", "lead_hours": 49.1, "market_code": "total", "author_said": "Over/Under 3 goals: under 3 at 1.87", "quote": null, "group": "settled", "outcome": "Won", "claim_outcome": "Won", "final_score": "2-0", "reason": null, "reason_code": null, "points_hundredths": 8696, "series_code": "market_price", "series_short": "odds snapshot", "author_price": "1.869", "settled_price": "1.8696", "published_at": "2026-10-29T16:21:35.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T16:23:01.038Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": true, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": { "outcome": "under", "price": "1.8696", "result": "Won", "points_hundredths": 8696, "picked_favourite": true }, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-4a43b31a8ef7390dde4a3a45", "quote_text": "VETO=u3\nKERROIN=1.869", "fragment_from": 1575, "fragment_to": 1596, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "rss", "url": "https://forum.ylikerroin.com/viewtopic.php?p=652471&t=59287", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Fastasashark", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "0222e28fe2e4f6e5c1cff8e832aab771d69a79fb2292d0911752de06aa58b638", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-29T16:21:35.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-29T16:23:01.038Z", "executed_at": "2026-10-31T14:17:28.291Z", "statement_class": "priced", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": "s-697bb66e358c", "display_name": "Tottenham Hotspur — Crystal Palace", "competition_name": "Premier League", "starts_at": "2026-10-31T17:30:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/tottenham-hotspur-vs-crystal-palace-2026-10-31/", "scoreline": "2-0", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "Over/Under 3 goals", "outcome_label": "under 3", "odds_set": { "by_author": "1.869", "our_snapshot": "1.8696", "our_snapshot_at": "2026-10-29T16:22:02.326Z", "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot", "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "win", "simulation_change_hundredths": 8696, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": "ours", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-29T16:21:35.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-10-29T16:21:35.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-29T16:23:01.038Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Over/Under 3 goals", "choice": "under 3", "author_odds": "1.869", "market_key": "total", "choice_key": "under", "period": "match", "line": "3", "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Over/Under 3 goals: under 3 at 1.87" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "win", "scoreline": "2-0", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Won: the final score was Tottenham Hotspur 2-0 Crystal Palace." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "fcc4680e6a6c8de5aea228390eee0a29aa49adf07994a54e6e8d686e57ed1071", "series_key": "author_price", "series_label": "At the author's stated price", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Over/Under 3 goals", "choice": "under 3", "decimal_odds": "1.869", "odds_role": "author_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "win", "result_words": "Won", "change_hundredths": 8690, "executed_at": "2026-10-31T14:17:26.800Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false }, { "operation_id": "44b89c6688d8faf96edc1f9c583aeb566bc36c73e7b4c75f18a1aea489e75cda", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Over/Under 3 goals", "choice": "under 3", "decimal_odds": "1.8696", "odds_role": "market_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "win", "result_words": "Won", "change_hundredths": 8696, "executed_at": "2026-10-31T14:17:28.291Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "settled_pick", "authorship": { "material_author": "Fastasashark", "publisher": "Ylikerroin", "forecaster": "Fastasashark", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://forum.ylikerroin.com/viewtopic.php?p=652471&t=59287", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null, "choice_words": "under 3 (Over/Under 3 goals)" } }, { "record_id": "n-118eafa1e0674e644bb69c9b", "url": "/authors/fastasashark/picks/3/#pick-n-118eafa1e0674e644bb69c9b", "match": "Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace", "match_url": "/football/matches/tottenham-hotspur-vs-crystal-palace-2026-10-31/", "kickoff": "2026-10-31T17:30:00.000Z", "competition": "Premier League", "lead_hours": 49.1, "market_code": "handicap_asian", "author_said": "Asian handicap 1: Crystal Palace +1 at 1.95", "quote": null, "group": "settled", "outcome": "Lost", "claim_outcome": "Lost", "final_score": "2-0", "reason": null, "reason_code": null, "points_hundredths": -10000, "series_code": "market_price", "series_short": "odds snapshot", "author_price": "1.952", "settled_price": "1.9524", "published_at": "2026-10-29T16:21:35.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-29T16:23:01.038Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": true, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-118eafa1e0674e644bb69c9b", "quote_text": "VETO=Crystal Palace +1\nKERROIN=1.952", "fragment_from": 1424, "fragment_to": 1460, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "rss", "url": "https://forum.ylikerroin.com/viewtopic.php?p=652471&t=59287", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Fastasashark", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "0222e28fe2e4f6e5c1cff8e832aab771d69a79fb2292d0911752de06aa58b638", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-29T16:21:35.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-29T16:23:01.038Z", "executed_at": "2026-10-31T14:17:26.624Z", "statement_class": "priced", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": "s-697bb66e358c", "display_name": "Tottenham Hotspur — Crystal Palace", "competition_name": "Premier League", "starts_at": "2026-10-31T17:30:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/tottenham-hotspur-vs-crystal-palace-2026-10-31/", "scoreline": "2-0", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "Asian handicap 1", "outcome_label": "Crystal Palace +1", "odds_set": { "by_author": "1.952", "our_snapshot": "1.9524", "our_snapshot_at": "2026-10-29T16:22:02.326Z", "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot", "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "loss", "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": "ours", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-29T16:21:35.000Z", "fragment_basis": "element", "source_page_at": "2026-10-29T16:21:35.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-29T16:23:01.038Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Asian handicap 1", "choice": "Crystal Palace +1", "author_odds": "1.952", "market_key": "handicap_asian", "choice_key": "2", "period": "match", "line": "1", "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Asian handicap 1: Crystal Palace +1 at 1.95" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "loss", "scoreline": "2-0", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Tottenham Hotspur 2-0 Crystal Palace." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "fe6f61c7ae193589c6db83d5a1e2ebb84d26fe6cbdad53625991e6c2242b4a38", "series_key": "author_price", "series_label": "At the author's stated price", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Asian handicap 1", "choice": "Crystal Palace +1", "decimal_odds": "1.952", "odds_role": "author_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "loss", "result_words": "Lost", "change_hundredths": -10000, "executed_at": "2026-10-31T14:17:25.514Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false }, { "operation_id": "652518f802af509e582e9045661212626a836fd9486b86fe1a0c493ddd5a6e1a", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Asian handicap 1", "choice": "Crystal Palace +1", "decimal_odds": "1.9524", "odds_role": "market_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "loss", "result_words": "Lost", "change_hundredths": -10000, "executed_at": "2026-10-31T14:17:26.624Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "settled_pick", "authorship": { "material_author": "Fastasashark", "publisher": "Ylikerroin", "forecaster": "Fastasashark", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://forum.ylikerroin.com/viewtopic.php?p=652471&t=59287", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null, "choice_words": "Crystal Palace +1" } }, { "record_id": "n-3081a6e4cc531b90eed88bba", "url": "/authors/fastasashark/picks/2/#pick-n-3081a6e4cc531b90eed88bba", "match": "Sunderland v Leeds United", "match_url": "/football/matches/sunderland-vs-leeds-united-2026-10-25/", "kickoff": "2026-10-25T16:30:00.000Z", "competition": "Premier League", "lead_hours": 70.6, "market_code": "total", "author_said": "Over/Under 2.25 goals: over 2.25 at 1.87", "quote": null, "group": "settled", "outcome": "Lost", "claim_outcome": "Lost", "final_score": "0-0", "reason": null, "reason_code": null, "points_hundredths": -10000, "series_code": "market_price", "series_short": "odds snapshot", "author_price": "1.869", "settled_price": "1.8550", "published_at": "2026-10-22T17:51:55.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-22T17:52:49.059Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": true, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": { "outcome": "over", "price": "1.8550", "result": "Lost", "points_hundredths": -10000, "picked_favourite": true }, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-3081a6e4cc531b90eed88bba", "quote_text": 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source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null } ], "lead_time": { "contract_version": 1, "threshold_hours": 2.0, "picks": 30, "before_kickoff": 20, "after_kickoff": 10, "at_least_2h": 20, "share_2h_plus": 66.7, "median_hours": 45.4, "min_hours": 24.5, "max_hours": 70.6, "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off." }, "baseline": { "contract_version": 1, "series_code": "market_price", "rule": "recorded-line-1.0", "state": "settled", "picks": 8, "settled_picks_all": 10, "excluded": { "market_without_favourite": 0, "no_recorded_line": 2, "favourite_not_settled": 0 }, "staked_hundredths": 80000, "author_net_hundredths": 2708, "favourite_net_hundredths": -7804, "difference_hundredths": 10512, "author_return_percent": 3.38, "favourite_return_percent": -9.76, "author_hit_rate": 50.0, "favourite_hit_rate": 50.0, "picked_favourite_share": 50.0, "by_market": [ { "market_code": "total", "picks": 5, "staked_hundredths": 50000, "author_net_hundredths": 27708, "favourite_net_hundredths": -12554, "author_hits": 4, "favourite_hits": 2, "picked_favourite": 3, "author_return_percent": 55.42, "favourite_return_percent": -25.11 }, { "market_code": "handicap_asian", "picks": 3, "staked_hundredths": 30000, "author_net_hundredths": -25000, "favourite_net_hundredths": 4750, "author_hits": 0, "favourite_hits": 2, "picked_favourite": 1, "author_return_percent": -83.33, "favourite_return_percent": 15.83 } ], "return_over_time": [ { "kickoff": "2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 8750, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 8750 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 19250, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -1250 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 9250, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 3950 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -750, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 8500 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 9012, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -1500 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-25T16:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -988, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -11500 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-25T16:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -5988, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -16500 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-31T17:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 2708, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -7804 } ], "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out." }, "pagination": { "per_page": 20, "total": 45, "pages": 4, "page_urls": [ "/authors/fastasashark/", "/authors/fastasashark/picks/2/", "/authors/fastasashark/picks/3/", "/authors/fastasashark/picks/4/" ], "groups": { "settled": 10, "pending": 0, "excluded": 35 }, "continuation": "by_time", "page": 1, "first": 1, "last": 20, "author_url": "/authors/fastasashark/", "current": false }, "title_tag": "Fastasashark Predictions: Verified Record, Results and Sources", "calculator": null, "person": { "person_id": "o-6685717e31c01a9832c014e0", "type_code": "individual", "name_shown": "Fastasashark", "main_entity": "e-6685717e31c01a9832c014e0", "identity": { "status": "not_verified", "is_verified": false, "when": null, "source_list": [] }, "platform_list": [ { "entity_ref": "e-6685717e31c01a9832c014e0", "medium": "Ylikerroin.com", "channel": "RSS feed", "domain": "forum.ylikerroin.com", "source_info": "ylikerroin-com", "byline": "Fastasashark", "url": "/sources/ylikerroin-com/", "summary": { "statements": 52, "predictions": 45, "settled_picks": 10, "headline_kind": "live_snapshot", "return_percent": -17.29, "headline_part": "live", "period_from": "2026-10-17", "period_to": "2026-10-30" } } ], "previously": [], "trust_tier": "probation" }, "data_revision": { "data_version": "2026-10-31.2", "updated": "2026-10-31", "current_release": "2026-11-07.2", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "2.2", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "series_code": "market_price", "sample": { "settled_picks": 10, "matches": 6, "void": 0, "period_from": "2026-10-24", "period_to": "2026-10-31", "composition_hash": "606dfab0b3b09733924fc382d7134acc6617765a43dd29828cd09ad75e78dd5a" }, "changes_url": "#changes", "corrections_url": "/corrections/" }, "number_changes": [ { "id": "zc-e998429543b47f98c916", "at": "2026-10-31T21:01:38.334Z", "data_version": "2026-10-31.2", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-31.1", "url": "/authors/fastasashark/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-27.1", "return_percent": "-19.98", "settled_picks": 8, "matches": 5, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "e21bd4345e38e6828a19e27bdc8478745f9d82c7d406cf94de9bf296399a355b", "text": "−159.88 points on 8 settled picks across 5 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-31.2", "return_percent": "-17.29", "settled_picks": 10, "matches": 6, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "606dfab0b3b09733924fc382d7134acc6617765a43dd29828cd09ad75e78dd5a", "text": "−17.29% on 10 settled picks across 6 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "2 new settled picks from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 2, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-01075405ff9b98eb6c53", "at": "2026-10-27T07:47:02.386Z", "data_version": "2026-10-27.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-26.1", "url": "/authors/fastasashark/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-24.5", "return_percent": "30.83", "settled_picks": 3, "matches": 2, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "ab224e18854e73b629457177c8e9d86e6449b00d681c93fd7b22970040610326", "text": "+92.50 points on 3 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-27.1", "return_percent": "-19.98", "settled_picks": 8, "matches": 5, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "e21bd4345e38e6828a19e27bdc8478745f9d82c7d406cf94de9bf296399a355b", "text": "−159.88 points on 8 settled picks across 5 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "5 new settled picks from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 5, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-b2ab63a58154c7ee5cf6", "at": "2026-10-25T01:37:51.007Z", "data_version": "2026-10-24.5", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-24.4", "url": "/authors/fastasashark/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-24.4", "return_percent": "87.50", "settled_picks": 1, "matches": 1, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "657549baf17b20cb85165bb13ecd01b25b11c274de177d0b5302152e895b91f5", "text": "+87.50 points on 1 settled pick across 1 match · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-24.5", "return_percent": "30.83", "settled_picks": 3, "matches": 2, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "ab224e18854e73b629457177c8e9d86e6449b00d681c93fd7b22970040610326", "text": "+92.50 points on 3 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "2 new settled picks from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 2, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-842073de5c17c1191662", "at": "2026-10-24T16:52:01.947Z", "data_version": "2026-10-24.4", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-24.3", "url": "/authors/fastasashark/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": null, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-24.4", "return_percent": "87.50", "settled_picks": 1, "matches": 1, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "657549baf17b20cb85165bb13ecd01b25b11c274de177d0b5302152e895b91f5", "text": "+87.50 points on 1 settled pick across 1 match · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "First headline number for this record: 1 settled pick in the series “independent odds snapshot”.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null } ], "counts_by_slice": { "portions": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "settled_picks": 10, "total_check": true, "market_list": [ { "code_name": "handicap_asian", "in_words": "Asian handicap", "url": null, "settled_picks": 5, 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}, "trust": { "tier": "probation", "in_words": "Probation", "settled_count": 20, "days": 9, "weeks": 2, "archive": false, "in_review": false, "own_page": true, "won_count": 10, "first_settled_on": "2026-10-24", "products_in_level": 1, "rule": { "tracked": { "min_settled": 30, "min_days": 30, "min_distinct_weeks": 2, "no_violations": true }, "established": { "min_settled": 100, "min_days": 90 } }, "show": true }, "colleagues": null, "author_type": "Tipster", "data_changes": { "added_later": "14 records added on 17 Oct 2026 found after the match. The current numbers include them; numbers published earlier, including the record before each match, do not change.", "records_corrected": 0, "last_correction_at": null, "corrections_url": "/corrections/" }, "entity_id": "person:o-6685717e31c01a9832c014e0", "source_revision": 49, "related": [ { "url": "/cards/e-6685717e31c01a9832c014e0-bank/", "name": "Bankroll card — Fastasashark", "detail": null, "source_group": "cards" }, { "url": "/cards/e-6685717e31c01a9832c014e0-month-following/", "name": "A month following Fastasashark", "detail": null, "source_group": "cards" }, { "url": "/cards/e-6685717e31c01a9832c014e0-said-vs-happened/", "name": "Said → happened — Fastasashark", "detail": null, "source_group": "cards" }, { "url": "/cards/e-6685717e31c01a9832c014e0-turning-point/", "name": "Turning point — Fastasashark", "detail": null, "source_group": "cards" }, { "url": "/for-authors/fastasashark/", "name": "Your record on Forecast Record: Fastasashark", "detail": null, "source_group": "for_authors" } ], "number_sets": [ { "set": "profile.settled", "entity": "e-6685717e31c01a9832c014e0", "value": 10, "where": "coverage", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.predictions", "entity": "e-6685717e31c01a9832c014e0", "value": 45, "where": "coverage", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.predictions", "entity": "e-6685717e31c01a9832c014e0", "value": 45, "where": "picks", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.part.live", "entity": "e-6685717e31c01a9832c014e0", "value": 10, "where": "origin", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.part.archived", "entity": "e-6685717e31c01a9832c014e0", "value": 0, "where": null, "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.part.found_after", "entity": "e-6685717e31c01a9832c014e0", "value": 0, "where": null, "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.checked.archived", "entity": "e-6685717e31c01a9832c014e0", "value": 0, "where": null, "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.checked.live", "entity": "e-6685717e31c01a9832c014e0", "value": 20, "where": "origin", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.window", "entity": "e-6685717e31c01a9832c014e0", "value": 10, "where": "calculation", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "label": true }, { "set": "profile.checked", "entity": "e-6685717e31c01a9832c014e0", "value": 20, "where": "trust-level", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "label": true } ] }