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 "heading": "Ewan Ross-Murray: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "6 settled picks by Ewan Ross-Murray archived before kick-off across 6 matches, 25 Oct 2025 – 8 Jan 2026: won 1 of 6, reconstructed at archived prices.",
 "first_paragraph": {
  "body": "Forecast Record restored 6 settled archived picks by Ewan Ross-Murray from copies archived before kick-off, across 6 matches between 25 October 2025 and 8 January 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 1 of 6 settled archived picks. Recorded by us before kick-off: 50 predictions, 50 with a checked outcome, 8 won. Of the 512 predictions we hold for Ewan Ross-Murray, 489 are linked to matches: 50 were recorded by us before kick-off, 350 archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 89 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
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   {
    "code_name": "P-07",
    "body": "Sep 2025: 10 of 17 result calls right · prices implied 7.0 · archive record",
    "event_at": "2025-09-30",
    "status": "historical",
    "cause": "180 days after the event",
    "provenance": "archived"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "E-07",
    "body": "Away win at 3.70 · Chelsea v Brighton & Hove Albion · 27 Sep 2025 · archive record",
    "event_at": "2025-09-27",
    "status": "historical",
    "cause": "90 days after the event",
    "provenance": "archived"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "E-07",
    "body": "Draw at 3.25 · AFC Bournemouth v Newcastle United · 21 Sep 2025 · archive record",
    "event_at": "2025-09-21",
    "status": "historical",
    "cause": "90 days after the event",
    "provenance": "archived"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "CS-10",
    "body": "Exact score 1–1 · Arsenal v Manchester City · 21 Sep 2025 · archive record",
    "event_at": "2025-09-21",
    "status": "historical",
    "cause": "90 days after the event",
    "provenance": "archived"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "CS-10",
    "body": "Exact score 1–1 · Burnley v Nottingham Forest · 20 Sep 2025 · archive record",
    "event_at": "2025-09-20",
    "status": "historical",
    "cause": "90 days after the event",
    "provenance": "archived"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "P-07",
    "body": "Aug 2025: 10 of 15 result calls right · prices implied 7.7 · archive record",
    "event_at": "2025-08-31",
    "status": "historical",
    "cause": "180 days after the event",
    "provenance": "archived"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "E-07",
    "body": "Home win at 3.40 · Sunderland v West Ham United · 16 Aug 2025 · archive record",
    "event_at": "2025-08-16",
    "status": "historical",
    "cause": "90 days after the event",
    "provenance": "archived"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "CS-10",
    "body": "Exact score 1–1 · Brighton & Hove Albion v Fulham · 16 Aug 2025 · archive record",
    "event_at": "2025-08-16",
    "status": "historical",
    "cause": "90 days after the event",
    "provenance": "archived"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "CS-10",
    "body": "Exact score 3–1 · Manchester City v AFC Bournemouth · 20 May 2025 · archive record",
    "event_at": "2025-05-20",
    "status": "historical",
    "cause": "90 days after the event",
    "provenance": "archived"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "CS-10",
    "body": "Exact score 2–0 · Everton v Southampton · 18 May 2025 · archive record",
    "event_at": "2025-05-18",
    "status": "historical",
    "cause": "90 days after the event",
    "provenance": "archived"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "CS-10",
    "body": "Exact score 1–2 · West Ham United v Nottingham Forest · 18 May 2025 · archive record",
    "event_at": "2025-05-18",
    "status": "historical",
    "cause": "90 days after the event",
    "provenance": "archived"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "CS-10",
    "body": "Exact score 1–1 · Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest · 5 May 2025 · archive record",
    "event_at": "2025-05-05",
    "status": "historical",
    "cause": "90 days after the event",
    "provenance": "archived"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "E-07",
    "body": "Draw at 3.70 · Brighton & Hove Albion v Newcastle United · 4 May 2025 · archive record",
    "event_at": "2025-05-04",
    "status": "historical",
    "cause": "90 days after the event",
    "provenance": "archived"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "CS-10",
    "body": "Exact score 3–1 · Tottenham Hotspur v Bodø/Glimt · 1 May 2025 · archive record",
    "event_at": "2025-05-01",
    "status": "historical",
    "cause": "90 days after the event",
    "provenance": "archived"
   }
  ]
 },
 "retro": {
  "restored_total": 6,
  "of_them_archived_pre_match": 6,
  "found_post_match": 0,
  "of_them_source_reported": 0,
  "live_count": 0,
  "date_count": 6,
  "span_from": "2025-04-30",
  "span_to": "2026-09-20",
  "line_text": "restored history: 6, of which pre-match archive 6",
  "body": "We re-read what this author published before Premier League, League Cup, Champions League and Europa League matches between 30 April 2025 and 20 September 2026 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 6. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 6. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 0. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.",
  "precision": {
   "n": 6,
   "share": "0.1667"
  },
  "series_list": [
   {
    "code_name": "retro_author_price",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
    "n": 0,
    "roi": null,
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": "no restored pick with this price"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price",
    "n": 5,
    "roi": "5.0000",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "n": 6,
    "roi": "-10.8333",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_derived_sm",
    "display_name": "Restored score forecast: result implied by the score, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "n": 422,
    "roi": "-4.5782",
    "ci_low": "-16.5851",
    "ci_high": "8.9798",
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   }
  ],
  "clv": {
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above"
  },
  "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
  "leagues": [
   "Premier League",
   "League Cup",
   "Champions League",
   "Europa League"
  ],
  "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 373 settled restored picks and forecasts, and the two agree; 55 come from one provider only. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged.",
  "score_accuracy": {
   "n": 422,
   "share": "0.1019"
  }
 },
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": null,
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "si.com",
   "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250430005439id_/https://www.si.com/soccer/barcelona-vs-inter-preview-predictions-lineups-4-30-25"
  },
  "observed_from": "2026-09-28",
  "observed_to": "2026-11-07",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
  "series": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
  "restored": true,
  "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
  "headline_part": "archived",
  "settled_picks": 6,
  "matches": 6,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": -6500,
  "staked_hundredths": 60000,
  "return_percent": "-10.83",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2025-10-25",
  "period_to": "2026-01-08",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "retro-1.1",
  "short_history": true,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record restored 6 settled archived picks by Ewan Ross-Murray from copies archived before kick-off, across 6 matches between 25 October 2025 and 8 January 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 1 of 6 settled archived picks. Recorded by us before kick-off: 50 predictions, 50 with a checked outcome, 8 won. Of the 512 predictions we hold for Ewan Ross-Murray, 489 are linked to matches: 50 were recorded by us before kick-off, 350 archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 89 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled archived picks",
    "value": "6",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "6",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "−65 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "value": "−10.8%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": null
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [
   "This page combines Ewan Ross-Murray across 2 platforms. The record above counts each prediction once, even when the same pick (match, market and selection) appeared on more than one platform; each platform keeps its own total under “Where Ewan Ross-Murray publishes”.",
   "Reconstructed at archived prices: these picks were restored from copies of the author’s pages that an independent web archive saved before kick-off, at the last pre-match archive prices, bookmaker margin included."
  ],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": null,
   "archived": {
    "part": "archived",
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. These picks were restored from copies an independent web archive saved before kick-off; the line shows how they settled at archived prices.",
    "settled_picks": 6,
    "matches": 6,
    "match_dates": 6,
    "period_from": "2025-10-25",
    "period_to": "2026-01-08",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": -6500,
    "low": {
     "date": "2025-11-26",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -30000,
     "after_picks": 3
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2025-12-03",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 13500,
     "after_picks": 4
    },
    "line_drawn": false,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2025-10-25",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000,
      "n": 1,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-11-09",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -20000,
      "n": 2,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-11-26",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -30000,
      "n": 3,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-12-03",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 13500,
      "n": 4,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-12-26",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 3500,
      "n": 5,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-01-08",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -6500,
      "n": 6,
      "picks": 1
     }
    ]
   }
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record restored 6 settled archived picks by Ewan Ross-Murray from copies archived before kick-off, across 6 matches between 25 October 2025 and 8 January 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 1 of 6 settled archived picks. Recorded by us before kick-off: 50 predictions, 50 with a checked outcome, 8 won. Of the 512 predictions we hold for Ewan Ross-Murray, 489 are linked to matches: 50 were recorded by us before kick-off, 350 archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 89 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/ewan-ross-murray/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "retro-1.1"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 512,
   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 23,
   "proven_predictions": 400,
   "proven_checked": 397,
   "proven_measured": 394,
   "proven_dates": 133,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 50,
     "checked": 50,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 47,
      "exact_hits": 5,
      "exact_rate": 10.6,
      "outcome_checked": 47,
      "outcome_hits": 26,
      "outcome_rate": 55.3,
      "baseline_matches": 35,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 35,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 18,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": 51.4,
      "favourite_hits": 16,
      "favourite_rate": 45.7,
      "price_basis": "our pre-match snapshot",
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": [
       "Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.",
       "5 of 47 score forecasts named the exact score (10.6%).",
       "The result implied by the named score was right in 18 of 35 matches; the market favourite was right in 16 of the same 35 matches.",
       "A pre-match market favourite is known for 35 of 47 forecasts; the comparison uses only those.",
       "The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest price in our own odds snapshot taken before kick-off.",
       "The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win)."
      ]
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 50,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null,
     "reviewed_after": {
      "predictions": 8,
      "right": 3,
      "wrong": 5,
      "other": 0
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 350,
     "checked": 347,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 6,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 6,
      "net_points_hundredths": -6500,
      "staked_hundredths": 60000,
      "return_percent": "-10.83",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2025-10-25",
      "period_to": "2026-01-08",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Closing price, aggregator",
       "series_code": "retro_market_closing",
       "picks": 5,
       "return_main_percent": "7.00",
       "return_other_percent": "5.00",
       "settled_excluding_void": 5,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 3500,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 2500,
       "period_from": "2025-10-25",
       "period_to": "2026-01-08"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 341,
      "exact_hits": 37,
      "exact_rate": 10.9,
      "outcome_checked": 341,
      "outcome_hits": 168,
      "outcome_rate": 49.3,
      "baseline_matches": 341,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 298,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 168,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": 49.3,
      "favourite_hits": 188,
      "favourite_rate": 55.1,
      "price_basis": "last pre-match archive price",
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": [
       "Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.",
       "37 of 341 score forecasts named the exact score (10.9%).",
       "The result implied by the named score was right in 168 of 341 forecasts; the market favourite was right in 188 of the same 341 forecasts.",
       "Some matches carry more than one of these forecasts: 341 forecasts on 298 matches.",
       "The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off).",
       "The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win)."
      ]
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 347,
      "priced": 6
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 6,
      "won": 1,
      "won_percent": "16.7",
      "implied_percent": "47.8",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 6,
        "implied_percent": "47.8"
       }
      ]
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 89,
     "checked": 81,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 81,
      "exact_hits": 6,
      "exact_rate": 7.4,
      "outcome_checked": 81,
      "outcome_hits": 32,
      "outcome_rate": 39.5,
      "baseline_matches": 81,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 80,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 32,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": 39.5,
      "favourite_hits": 44,
      "favourite_rate": 54.3,
      "price_basis": "last pre-match archive price",
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": [
       "Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.",
       "6 of 81 score forecasts named the exact score (7.4%).",
       "The result implied by the named score was right in 32 of 81 forecasts; the market favourite was right in 44 of the same 81 forecasts.",
       "Some matches carry more than one of these forecasts: 81 forecasts on 80 matches.",
       "The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off).",
       "The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win).",
       "These forecasts were found after the match; when they were made depends on the date the source gives."
      ]
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 81,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    }
   ]
  },
  "live_alongside": {
   "predictions": 50,
   "checked": 50,
   "settled": 0,
   "won": 0,
   "void": 0,
   "checked_won": 8,
   "checked_settled": 50,
   "threshold": 10,
   "text": "Recorded by us before kick-off: 50 predictions, 50 with a checked outcome, 8 won."
  },
  "headline_record_ids": [
   "n-82d6adb03973d3d86dd433ac",
   "n-9141cba99ed7b417c2a244a0",
   "n-93ec01f72010951639375129",
   "n-d83a5b5a51bd6141c877659a",
   "n-e202b608dbff6cca3433e3a9",
   "n-e2101f357ea6c79fcd0ddb8e"
  ],
  "interval_low": null,
  "interval_high": null,
  "caption": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) · 100 points per pick · 25 October 2025 – 8 January 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under reconstruction method 1.1",
  "record_from": "2025-10-25",
  "record_to": "2026-11-07"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
  {
   "record_id": "n-9141cba99ed7b417c2a244a0",
   "url": "/authors/ewan-ross-murray/picks/5/#pick-n-9141cba99ed7b417c2a244a0",
   "match": "Arsenal v Liverpool",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2026-01-08T20:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": -6308.7,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: Arsenal",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "0-0",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": "1.5700",
   "published_at": "2026-01-08T02:00:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:41:12.272Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
   "record_part": "archived",
   "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "in_headline": true,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "platform": null,
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-9141cba99ed7b417c2a244a0",
    "quote_text": "the most likely outcome a convincing Arsenal win.",
    "fragment_from": 5228,
    "fragment_to": 5277,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "website",
     "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260108021756id_/https://www.si.com/soccer/arsenal-vs-liverpool-preview-predictions-and-lineups-1-8-26",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Ewan Ross-Murray",
     "authorship": "channel_owner",
     "media_from_ms": null,
     "bundle_id": "dc1705b74aa47326b97bc9993953e1d566a78f1bc3777c9a6bd585d2de17921a",
     "material_removed": false
    },
    "published_at": "2026-01-08T02:00:00.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-09-28T16:41:12.272Z",
    "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:21:05.668Z",
    "statement_class": "unpriced",
    "status": "too_late",
    "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
    "cause_code": null,
    "event": {
     "event_id": null,
     "display_name": "Arsenal v Liverpool",
     "competition_name": "Premier League",
     "starts_at": "2026-01-08T20:00:00.000Z",
     "url": null,
     "scoreline": "0-0"
    },
    "market_label": "1X2, match result",
    "outcome_label": "Arsenal",
    "odds_set": {
     "by_author": null,
     "our_snapshot": null,
     "our_snapshot_at": null,
     "our_snapshot_source": null,
     "closing": "1.5682",
     "closing_source": "aggregator closing price"
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
    "result": "loss",
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   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
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   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
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   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T16:05:22.940Z",
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   "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:17:54.323Z",
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   "kickoff": "2025-10-26T14:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": -8090.3,
   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: Wolverhampton Wanderers 1-1 Burnley",
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    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -1109
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    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 69341,
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    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 63689,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 5739
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   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 53689,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -4261
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   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 43689,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 6689
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   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 56689,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 19689
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   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 46689,
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   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-25T16:30:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 36689,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -311
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   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-31T12:30:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 46213,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 9213
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   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-31T15:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 36213,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 19413
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   {
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    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 47213,
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   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-31T15:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 37213,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 20413
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   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-31T15:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 27213,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 10413
   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-31T15:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 17213,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 413
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   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-31T17:30:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 22927,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 6127
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   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-31T20:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 12927,
    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -3873
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   {
    "kickoff": "2026-11-01T16:30:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 26927,
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    "kickoff": "2026-11-02T20:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 16927,
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  ],
  "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out."
 },
 "pagination": {
  "per_page": 20,
  "total": 512,
  "pages": 27,
  "page_urls": [
   "/authors/ewan-ross-murray/",
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  ],
  "groups": {
   "settled": 6,
   "pending": 0,
   "excluded": 506
  },
  "continuation": "by_time",
  "page": 1,
  "first": 1,
  "last": 20,
  "author_url": "/authors/ewan-ross-murray/",
  "current": false
 },
 "title_tag": "Ewan Ross-Murray Predictions: Verified Record and Results",
 "calculator": null,
 "person": {
  "person_id": "o-29e3b5b854fbc8f4d21834dc",
  "type_code": "individual",
  "name_shown": "Ewan Ross-Murray",
  "main_entity": "e-29e3b5b854fbc8f4d21834dc",
  "identity": {
   "status": "verified_identity",
   "is_verified": true,
   "when": "2026-10-12",
   "source_list": [
    {
     "url": "https://www.si.com/soccer/arsenal-vs-chelsea-preview-predictions-lineups-9-6-26",
     "what": "подпись статьи — Ewan Ross-Murray; био: «Ewan Ross-Murray is a soccer writer for SI FC. … his primary focus is on the Premier League and Champions League.»; ссылка профиля https://www.si.com/author/ew"
    },
    {
     "url": "https://www.si.com/author/ewan-rossmurray",
     "what": "страница автора на si.com (ссылка из подписи статьи)"
    }
   ]
  },
  "platform_list": [
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    "domain": "si.com",
    "source_info": "sports-illustrated",
    "byline": "Ewan Ross-Murray",
    "url": "/sources/sports-illustrated/",
    "summary": {
     "statements": 3041,
     "predictions": 433,
     "settled_picks": 6,
     "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
     "return_percent": -10.83,
     "headline_part": "archived",
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    "byline": "Ewan Ross-Murray",
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    "summary": {
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     "predictions": 79,
     "settled_picks": 0,
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  "data_version": "2026-10-22.3",
  "updated": "2026-10-22",
  "current_release": "2026-11-07.2",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "method_version": "retro-1.1",
  "price_rule": "reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
  "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
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   "matches": 6,
   "void": 0,
   "period_from": "2025-10-25",
   "period_to": "2026-01-08",
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 },
 "number_changes": [
  {
   "id": "zc-f712e7dfd55dad773781",
   "at": "2026-10-22T09:54:30.278Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-22.3",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-22.2",
   "url": "/authors/ewan-ross-murray/",
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   "category_words": "Data corrected",
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    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "9832dc40e9681516329962bc662a2462924f686905ae5af80782bed345cbc848",
    "text": "−218.00 points on 9 settled picks across 8 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
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    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "f236e09d513662b328eb093a2bd75f7cff9eda33bd1561cb4b5163847bc4da89",
    "text": "−65.00 points on 6 settled picks across 6 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Data corrected: 3 picks left the headline sample.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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   },
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   "at": "2026-10-22T05:56:36.122Z",
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   "url": "/authors/ewan-ross-murray/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
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    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "f236e09d513662b328eb093a2bd75f7cff9eda33bd1561cb4b5163847bc4da89",
    "text": "−65.00 points on 6 settled picks across 6 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
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    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "9832dc40e9681516329962bc662a2462924f686905ae5af80782bed345cbc848",
    "text": "−218.00 points on 9 settled picks across 8 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Added 3 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
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    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "9832dc40e9681516329962bc662a2462924f686905ae5af80782bed345cbc848",
    "text": "−218.00 points on 9 settled picks across 8 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
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    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "f236e09d513662b328eb093a2bd75f7cff9eda33bd1561cb4b5163847bc4da89",
    "text": "−65.00 points on 6 settled picks across 6 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
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   "data_version": "2026-10-09.2",
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   "url": "/authors/ewan-ross-murray/",
   "category": "method_changed",
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    "composition_hash": "b401992e78ef8b134bc44290baeb981d2d24d993035018a08358fba04fa62a69",
    "text": "−89.95 points on 9 settled picks across 8 matches · closing market price, restored · method retro-1.0"
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   "after": {
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    "return_percent": "-24.22",
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    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
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    "composition_hash": "9832dc40e9681516329962bc662a2462924f686905ae5af80782bed345cbc848",
    "text": "−218.00 points on 9 settled picks across 8 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "The headline rule changed on 9 October 2026: the headline is the live record at our recorded market price; without one, a historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only. Picks first found after the match no longer enter the headline number. Was: closing market price, restored (9 settled picks). Now: historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (9 settled picks).",
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 "author_card": {
  "body": "Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 512 predictions · last change 7 November 2026",
  "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/ewan-ross-murray/",
  "s": "2026-09-28",
  "prediction_count": 512,
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  "html": "<a href=\"https://forecastrecord.com/authors/ewan-ross-murray/\">Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 512 predictions · last change 7 November 2026</a>"
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 "trust": {
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