{
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 "heading": "Emre Demir: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "54 settled picks by Emre Demir archived before kick-off across 54 matches, 14 Feb 2025 – 2 Oct 2025: +7.6% reconstructed at archived prices.",
 "first_paragraph": {
  "body": "Forecast Record restored 54 settled archived picks by Emre Demir from copies archived before kick-off, across 54 matches between 14 February and 2 October 2025. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned +7.6% on the total staked. Of the 434 predictions we hold for Emre Demir, 61 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 373 from the source’s own history. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "key_number": "+7.6%",
  "data": "2026-11-07",
  "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot",
  "brand": "Forecast Record"
 },
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 "indexing_threshold": {
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  "required_dates": 2,
  "live_count": 0,
  "restored_count": 404,
  "of_them_archived": 54
 },
 "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
 "built_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
 "lastmod": "2026-11-08T02:12:33.000Z",
 "content_hash": null,
 "meaning_hash": "60adafb033f897ccf5e16c44043e93021569c7a300707323257f171cb049fa4f",
 "dependency_group": "author:e-09640472fc640dd325458790",
 "release_id": "20261107-195223",
 "markup": [
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  },
  {
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  },
  {
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 ],
 "exports": [
  {
   "type_code": "json",
   "url": "/authors/emre-demir/index.json",
   "bytes": null
  },
  {
   "type_code": "csv",
   "url": "/authors/emre-demir/picks.csv",
   "bytes": null
  }
 ],
 "modules": {
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  "api": true,
  "compare_yourself": false
 },
 "affiliate_block": {
  "container": true,
  "request_url": "/partnery/moi",
  "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.",
  "page_category": "author"
 },
 "restrictions": {
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 },
 "page_links": {
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  "right_of_reply": "/right-of-reply/",
  "source_coverage": "/coverage/",
  "corrections_log": "/corrections/",
  "api": "/api/",
  "claim": "/claim/"
 },
 "entity": {
  "id": "e-09640472fc640dd325458790",
  "public_name": "Emre Demir",
  "tracker_number": 3961,
  "status": "active",
  "inactive_since": null,
  "verified_creator": false,
  "observation_period": {
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   "until": "2026-10-12"
  },
  "platform_list": [
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    "url": null,
    "link_confirmed": false,
    "show": true
   }
  ],
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 },
 "headline_number": {
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   "window_kind": "90d",
   "window_from": "2026-08-09",
   "window_to": "2026-11-07",
   "amount": null,
   "unit": "percent",
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "no pick in this window has been settled",
   "n_bets": 0,
   "n_events": 0,
   "n_void": null,
   "ci_low": null,
   "ci_high": null,
   "ci_method": "not_estimated",
   "price_source": "market_price",
   "coverage_percent": null,
   "breakdown": [],
   "methodology_version": "2.2",
   "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
   "enough_for_ranking": false,
   "series_key": "market_price",
   "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot"
  },
  "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 0 settled picks across 0 matches",
  "average_odds": null,
  "odds_from_author": null,
  "odds_from_snapshot": null
 },
 "metrics": [],
 "history": [],
 "simulation": {
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  "reserve_hundredths": 0,
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  "stake_hundredths": 10000,
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  "profit_hundredths": 0,
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  "data_points": [],
  "top_ups": [],
  "rule": "Every tracked author starts with 10,000 points and stakes 100 per qualifying pick. This author has 0 settled bets, so the bankroll stands at its starting value."
 },
 "simulations": [],
 "completeness": {
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  "calculated": 404,
  "gaps": []
 },
 "record_counts": {
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  "not_predictions": {
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   "not_about_a_match": 0,
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  "predictions_restored": 434,
  "matches": 0,
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  "qualifying_picks_restored": 434,
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  "settled_picks_restored": 404,
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    "void": 0,
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    "matches": 404,
    "operations_settled": 404,
    "stakes_hundredths": [
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    ],
    "methodologies": [
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 },
 "evidence_items": [
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   "source_info": {
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    "speaker": "Emre Demir",
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    "closing": "1.6150",
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    "in_words": "Won: the final score was NK Celje 3-1 AEK Athens."
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   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
   "authorship": {
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    "basis": null,
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   "source_info": {
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    "display_name": "Rayo Vallecano v Skendija 79",
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    "closing": "1.5300",
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   },
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   "result": "loss",
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   "archive_snapshot_at": "2025-10-02T08:41:46.000Z",
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   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": "Added to our record on 12 Oct 2026",
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   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
    "choice": "over 2.5",
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    "in_words": "Over/Under 2.5 goals: over 2.5 at 1.42"
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    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Rayo Vallecano 2-0 Skendija 79."
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   "settlements": [
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     "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
     "choice": "over 2.5",
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     "status": "confirmed",
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     "result": "loss",
     "result_words": "Lost",
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     "executed_at": "2026-10-13T19:56:30.620Z",
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     "status": "confirmed",
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   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
   "authorship": {
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   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://www.futboltr.com/dynamo-kiev-crystal-palace-bahis-tahmini-02-10-2025/",
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   "statement_class": "priced",
   "status": "too_late",
   "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
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   "event": {
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    "display_name": "Dynamo Kyiv v Crystal Palace",
    "competition_name": "UEFA Conference League",
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    "scoreline": "0-2"
   },
   "market_label": "1X2, match result",
   "outcome_label": "Crystal Palace",
   "odds_set": {
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    "closing": "1.4450",
    "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "win",
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   "archive_snapshot_at": "2025-10-02T08:43:03.000Z",
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   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": "Added to our record on 12 Oct 2026",
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "1X2, match result",
    "choice": "Crystal Palace",
    "author_odds": "1.43",
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    "period": "match",
    "line": null,
    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "1X2, match result: Crystal Palace at 1.43"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": "win",
    "scoreline": "0-2",
    "data_status": "measured",
    "cause": null,
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "in_words": "Won: the final score was Dynamo Kyiv 0-2 Crystal Palace."
   },
   "settlements": [
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    "competition_name": "LaLiga Segunda",
    "starts_at": "2025-02-21T19:30:00.000Z",
    "url": null,
    "scoreline": "1-0"
   },
   "market_label": "1X2, match result",
   "outcome_label": "Málaga CF",
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": "2.1",
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": "2.4350",
    "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "win",
   "simulation_change_hundredths": 14350,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": "ours",
   "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "source_reported_history",
   "provenance_words": "Source-reported history",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": "2025-02-19T12:39:00.000Z",
    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2025-02-19T12:39:00.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-12T20:25:23.631Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "source_reported_history",
   "origin_words": "Source-reported history",
   "added_on": "Added to our record on 12 Oct 2026",
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "1X2, match result",
    "choice": "Málaga CF",
    "author_odds": "2.1",
    "market_key": "1x2",
    "choice_key": "1",
    "period": "match",
    "line": null,
    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "1X2, match result: Málaga CF at 2.1"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": "win",
    "scoreline": "1-0",
    "data_status": "measured",
    "cause": null,
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "in_words": "Won: the final score was Málaga CF 1-0 Tenerife."
   },
   "settlements": [
    {
     "operation_id": "189d081964f122c6daa30fc7d2c03f7e8fa584cafc3a7cd86595e3d80ffe706f",
     "series_key": "retro_author_price",
     "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "Málaga CF",
     "decimal_odds": "2.1",
     "odds_role": "author_price",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "win",
     "result_words": "Won",
     "change_hundredths": 11000,
     "executed_at": "2026-10-13T19:50:48.763Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    },
    {
     "operation_id": "453e5ebdb6c851f92bcff59c06536a52ef17a6174bd7f03aa1425e00f439ca37",
     "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "Málaga CF",
     "decimal_odds": "2.4350",
     "odds_role": "closing_odds",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "win",
     "result_words": "Won",
     "change_hundredths": 14350,
     "executed_at": "2026-10-13T19:50:48.763Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    }
   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
   "authorship": {
    "material_author": "25",
    "publisher": "FutbolTR",
    "forecaster": "25",
    "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
    "basis": null,
    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
    "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://www.futboltr.com/malaga-tenerife-bahis-tahmini-21-02-2025/",
    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
    "verdict_by": null,
    "verdict_line": null
   },
   "correction": null
  }
 ],
 "standing": null,
 "retro": {
  "restored_total": 404,
  "of_them_archived_pre_match": 54,
  "found_post_match": 0,
  "of_them_source_reported": 350,
  "live_count": 0,
  "date_count": 170,
  "span_from": "2025-02-06",
  "span_to": "2026-01-07",
  "line_text": "restored history: 404, of which pre-match archive 54",
  "body": "We re-read what this author published before Premier League, League Cup, Champions League, Europa League, Conference League, UEFA Super Cup, Bundesliga, LaLiga Segunda, Serie B and Süper Lig matches between 6 February 2025 and 7 January 2026 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 404. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 54. Taken from the source’s own published history, published before kick-off by the source’s own date: 350. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 0. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.",
  "precision": {
   "n": 404,
   "share": "0.5173"
  },
  "series_list": [
   {
    "code_name": "retro_author_price",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
    "n": 404,
    "roi": "-13.4332",
    "ci_low": "-21.7921",
    "ci_high": "-4.9530",
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price",
    "n": 0,
    "roi": null,
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": "no restored pick with this price"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "n": 404,
    "roi": "-4.4307",
    "ci_low": "-13.6015",
    "ci_high": "4.7686",
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   }
  ],
  "clv": {
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above"
  },
  "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
  "leagues": [
   "Premier League",
   "League Cup",
   "Champions League",
   "Europa League",
   "Conference League",
   "UEFA Super Cup",
   "Bundesliga",
   "LaLiga Segunda",
   "Serie B",
   "Süper Lig"
  ],
  "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 0 settled restored picks and forecasts, and the two agree; 404 come from one provider only. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged."
 },
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": null,
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "futboltr.com",
   "url": "https://www.futboltr.com/celje-aek-atina-bahis-tahmini-02-10-2025/"
  },
  "observed_from": "2026-10-11",
  "observed_to": "2026-10-12",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
  "series": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
  "restored": true,
  "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
  "headline_part": "archived",
  "settled_picks": 54,
  "matches": 54,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": 40850,
  "staked_hundredths": 540000,
  "return_percent": "7.56",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2025-02-14",
  "period_to": "2025-10-02",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "retro-1.1",
  "short_history": false,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record restored 54 settled archived picks by Emre Demir from copies archived before kick-off, across 54 matches between 14 February and 2 October 2025. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned +7.6% on the total staked. Of the 434 predictions we hold for Emre Demir, 61 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 373 from the source’s own history. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled archived picks",
    "value": "54",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "54",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "+408.50 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "value": "+7.6%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": "95% interval −18.3% to +32.8%"
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [
   "Most of this history comes from the source’s own published record: 373 predictions dated by the source. 350 of them are settled in a historical price series; titles and rankings use the live record.",
   "Reconstructed at archived prices: these picks were restored from copies of the author’s pages that an independent web archive saved before kick-off, at the last pre-match archive prices, bookmaker margin included."
  ],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [
   {
    "date": "2025-02-14",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000,
    "n": 1
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-02-16",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -33300,
    "n": 5
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-02-17",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -26000,
    "n": 6
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-02-22",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -17200,
    "n": 7
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-03-08",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -18700,
    "n": 9
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-03-09",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -28700,
    "n": 10
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-03-10",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -24100,
    "n": 11
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-03-14",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -19900,
    "n": 12
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-03-21",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -29900,
    "n": 13
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-03-22",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -22600,
    "n": 14
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-03-28",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -12600,
    "n": 15
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-03-30",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 24550,
    "n": 19
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-04-04",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 31050,
    "n": 20
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-04-14",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 41350,
    "n": 21
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-04-17",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 31350,
    "n": 22
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-04-18",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 35550,
    "n": 23
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-04-27",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 25550,
    "n": 24
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-05-17",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 47550,
    "n": 26
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-05-18",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 49550,
    "n": 28
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-05-19",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 63350,
    "n": 29
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-07-23",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 43350,
    "n": 31
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-07-31",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 33350,
    "n": 32
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-08-07",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 42350,
    "n": 33
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-08-14",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 32350,
    "n": 34
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-08-15",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 50550,
    "n": 36
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-08-17",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 20550,
    "n": 39
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-08-22",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 20550,
    "n": 41
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-08-23",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 38550,
    "n": 42
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-08-24",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 28550,
    "n": 43
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-08-28",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 25500,
    "n": 45
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-08-29",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 40200,
    "n": 47
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-08-31",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 41200,
    "n": 49
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-09-01",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 50250,
    "n": 50
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-09-06",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 40250,
    "n": 51
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-10-02",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 40850,
    "n": 54
   }
  ],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": null,
   "archived": {
    "part": "archived",
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. These picks were restored from copies an independent web archive saved before kick-off; the line shows how they settled at archived prices.",
    "settled_picks": 54,
    "matches": 54,
    "match_dates": 35,
    "period_from": "2025-02-14",
    "period_to": "2025-10-02",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": 40850,
    "low": {
     "date": "2025-02-16",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -33300,
     "after_picks": 5
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2025-05-19",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 63350,
     "after_picks": 29
    },
    "line_drawn": true,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2025-02-14",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000,
      "n": 1,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-02-16",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -33300,
      "n": 5,
      "picks": 4
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-02-17",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -26000,
      "n": 6,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-02-22",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -17200,
      "n": 7,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-03-08",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -18700,
      "n": 9,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-03-09",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -28700,
      "n": 10,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-03-10",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -24100,
      "n": 11,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-03-14",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -19900,
      "n": 12,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-03-21",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -29900,
      "n": 13,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-03-22",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -22600,
      "n": 14,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-03-28",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -12600,
      "n": 15,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-03-30",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 24550,
      "n": 19,
      "picks": 4
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-04-04",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 31050,
      "n": 20,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-04-14",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 41350,
      "n": 21,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-04-17",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 31350,
      "n": 22,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-04-18",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 35550,
      "n": 23,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-04-27",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 25550,
      "n": 24,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-05-17",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 47550,
      "n": 26,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-05-18",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 49550,
      "n": 28,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-05-19",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 63350,
      "n": 29,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-07-23",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 43350,
      "n": 31,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-07-31",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 33350,
      "n": 32,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-08-07",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 42350,
      "n": 33,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-08-14",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 32350,
      "n": 34,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-08-15",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 50550,
      "n": 36,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-08-17",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 20550,
      "n": 39,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-08-22",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 20550,
      "n": 41,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-08-23",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 38550,
      "n": 42,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-08-24",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 28550,
      "n": 43,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-08-28",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 25500,
      "n": 45,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-08-29",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 40200,
      "n": 47,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-08-31",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 41200,
      "n": 49,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-09-01",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 50250,
      "n": 50,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-09-06",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 40250,
      "n": 51,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-10-02",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 40850,
      "n": 54,
      "picks": 3
     }
    ]
   }
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record restored 54 settled archived picks by Emre Demir from copies archived before kick-off, across 54 matches between 14 February and 2 October 2025. Reconstructed at archived prices, these picks returned +7.6% on the total staked. Of the 434 predictions we hold for Emre Demir, 61 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 373 from the source’s own history. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/emre-demir/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "retro-1.1"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 434,
   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 0,
   "proven_predictions": 61,
   "proven_checked": 54,
   "proven_measured": 54,
   "proven_dates": 35,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 61,
     "checked": 54,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 54,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 54,
      "net_points_hundredths": 40850,
      "staked_hundredths": 540000,
      "return_percent": "7.56",
      "interval_low": "-18.26",
      "interval_high": "32.78",
      "interval_note": null,
      "period_from": "2025-02-14",
      "period_to": "2025-10-02",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 54,
       "return_main_percent": "7.56",
       "return_other_percent": "-2.59",
       "settled_excluding_void": 54,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 40850,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -14000,
       "period_from": "2025-02-14",
       "period_to": "2025-10-02"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 54,
      "priced": 54
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 54,
      "won": 31,
      "won_percent": "57.4",
      "implied_percent": "52.5",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 14,
        "picks": 25,
        "implied_percent": "48.8"
       },
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 14,
        "picks": 22,
        "implied_percent": "53.9"
       },
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 3,
        "picks": 7,
        "implied_percent": "61.3"
       }
      ]
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "source_reported",
     "title": "Source-reported history",
     "explanation": "The time and the pick are known only from the source’s own history; it is the basis of the record check and never part of the evidenced total.",
     "predictions": 373,
     "checked": 350,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 350,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 350,
      "net_points_hundredths": -219850,
      "staked_hundredths": 3500000,
      "return_percent": "-6.28",
      "interval_low": "-16.72",
      "interval_high": "3.77",
      "interval_note": null,
      "period_from": "2025-02-06",
      "period_to": "2026-01-07",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 350,
       "return_main_percent": "-6.28",
       "return_other_percent": "-15.11",
       "settled_excluding_void": 350,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -219850,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -528700,
       "period_from": "2025-02-06",
       "period_to": "2026-01-07"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 350,
      "priced": 350
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 350,
      "won": 178,
      "won_percent": "50.9",
      "implied_percent": "54.7",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 76,
        "picks": 138,
        "implied_percent": "54.5"
       },
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 67,
        "picks": 135,
        "implied_percent": "52.6"
       },
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 35,
        "picks": 77,
        "implied_percent": "58.6"
       }
      ]
     }
    }
   ]
  },
  "live_alongside": null,
  "headline_record_ids": [
   "n-091f07771c8ffd6266dd9b1c",
   "n-11909476b6561570ab42f66f",
   "n-1a0a980faf2563377aef512b",
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   "n-67a24028561173deee9691f1",
   "n-67b1ce8933b26e89de10371b",
   "n-6a0d2cab04efe94a66bf710c",
   "n-6a9e66903bfcbd21aeac0307",
   "n-6cb30bf83c7f1b48d4f58261",
   "n-6ed328c3f4e4de67291dddc1",
   "n-6f5acfc27ab9a4775897cb1b",
   "n-7093d04ea37f1a7f25a99635",
   "n-7402c323a79cc225ac7ddb14",
   "n-7fc9db8f27c476901c9aa570",
   "n-87ca6b9f0f2272a1ba6a127c",
   "n-8d803f9cc8d4fd369a8206d5",
   "n-934ab52470447bec915e3636",
   "n-9665d14dcbbb06a819c5bf33",
   "n-a1b6d898335e2c4bac4b371f",
   "n-abe349089a34efc7dce55286",
   "n-b28da969bc906fa64cc7dfef",
   "n-b3b25d5fde27188061143281",
   "n-b6b88abe59c40ff73cf51bfd",
   "n-bc778ebf221a4202df662563",
   "n-c55c2c4f712c10e0d0828215",
   "n-c8a53c07a4241bd137568d8b",
   "n-ca14a35ac7a53a8c3aef9a02",
   "n-ca6447ec5aa9582f67f707c2",
   "n-cd65fbfa41de1d0f451eda20",
   "n-cd9600f9eca1c11b9ef9d4aa",
   "n-cdc917250f40477758f0254d",
   "n-ce085dd16759c41473f4bb8d",
   "n-d470bb546b6624dd00bd6e98",
   "n-d74cfb70be71051029f3e4f6",
   "n-df98eb7cb4b4d1f54617989f",
   "n-ea82dae1fb5f233d80ee58fa",
   "n-ec01fd277b204f9daa09ae88",
   "n-efff72d6ef9434b07dd472dd",
   "n-f4cb688eab727c62185413a6",
   "n-fbb3fa540f7314e35c580669"
  ],
  "interval_low": "-18.26",
  "interval_high": "32.78",
  "caption": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) · 100 points per pick · 14 February – 2 October 2025 · Calculated · picks settled under reconstruction method 1.1",
  "record_from": "2025-02-06",
  "record_to": "2026-01-07"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
  {
   "record_id": "n-98f58c76f35b4a9e0b86d911",
   "url": null,
   "match": "Brentford v Sunderland",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2026-01-07T19:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": -6672.7,
   "market_code": "both_teams_score",
   "author_said": "Both teams to score: yes at 1.7",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "3-0",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": "1.7",
   "settled_price": "2.0500",
   "published_at": "2026-01-05T12:00:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T20:12:11.165Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
   "record_part": "source_reported",
   "record_part_words": "Source-reported history",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-96d860d4d3dbfe5466b3d957",
   "url": null,
   "match": "AFC Bournemouth v Tottenham Hotspur",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2026-01-07T19:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": -6672.7,
   "market_code": "both_teams_score",
   "author_said": "Both teams to score: yes at 1.45",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Won",
   "claim_outcome": "Won",
   "final_score": "3-2",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": 6000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": "1.45",
   "settled_price": "1.6000",
   "published_at": "2026-01-05T12:15:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T20:12:11.100Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
   "record_part": "source_reported",
   "record_part_words": "Source-reported history",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-d2f36d7c96198c0cddb8f6ae",
   "url": null,
   "match": "Deportivo de A Coruña v Cadiz",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2026-01-04T20:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "LaLiga Segunda",
   "lead_hours": -6744.2,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: Deportivo de A Coruña at 1.52",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "2-2",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": "1.52",
   "settled_price": "1.7150",
   "published_at": "2026-01-02T07:50:09.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T20:12:20.664Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
   "record_part": "source_reported",
   "record_part_words": "Source-reported history",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-8c9c59842cd3a4d30a91afc1",
   "url": null,
   "match": "Real Zaragoza v Las Palmas",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2026-01-04T17:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "LaLiga Segunda",
   "lead_hours": -6746.7,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: Las Palmas at 2.25",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Won",
   "claim_outcome": "Won",
   "final_score": "1-2",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": 16200,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": "2.25",
   "settled_price": "2.6200",
   "published_at": "2026-01-02T07:49:32.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T20:12:20.774Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
   "record_part": "source_reported",
   "record_part_words": "Source-reported history",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-23af4405d3c3845ddf8ef9a2",
   "url": null,
   "match": "Albacete Balompié v Leganés",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2026-01-04T17:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "LaLiga Segunda",
   "lead_hours": -6746.7,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: Albacete Balompié at 2.03",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "1-3",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": "2.03",
   "settled_price": "2.3500",
   "published_at": "2026-01-02T07:49:49.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T20:12:20.733Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
   "record_part": "source_reported",
   "record_part_words": "Source-reported history",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-4e6829b8ba232287fab279f4",
   "url": null,
   "match": "AD Ceuta v Andorra",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2026-01-04T15:15:00.000Z",
   "competition": "LaLiga Segunda",
   "lead_hours": -6749.0,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: AD Ceuta at 1.75",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Won",
   "claim_outcome": "Won",
   "final_score": "2-1",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": 10000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": "1.75",
   "settled_price": "2.0000",
   "published_at": "2026-01-02T07:49:12.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T20:12:20.811Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
   "record_part": "source_reported",
   "record_part_words": "Source-reported history",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-468f33687bbc5f2ea3a11192",
   "url": null,
   "match": "Sporting Gijón v Málaga CF",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2026-01-04T13:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "LaLiga Segunda",
   "lead_hours": -6751.2,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: Sporting Gijón at 1.75",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "1-3",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": "1.75",
   "settled_price": "1.8350",
   "published_at": "2026-01-02T07:48:51.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T20:12:20.853Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
   "record_part": "source_reported",
   "record_part_words": "Source-reported history",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-e3fd47ab5586b4346b9db34e",
   "url": null,
   "match": "Almeria v Granada CF",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2026-01-03T15:15:00.000Z",
   "competition": "LaLiga Segunda",
   "lead_hours": -6773.0,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: Almeria at 1.55",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Won",
   "claim_outcome": "Won",
   "final_score": "3-2",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": 8500,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": "1.55",
   "settled_price": "1.8500",
   "published_at": "2026-01-01T13:02:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T20:12:23.233Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
   "record_part": "source_reported",
   "record_part_words": "Source-reported history",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-4dd7195cc35be8b2d860cb76",
   "url": null,
   "match": "CD Castellón v Huesca",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2026-01-03T15:15:00.000Z",
   "competition": "LaLiga Segunda",
   "lead_hours": -6773.0,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: CD Castellón at 1.38",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Won",
   "claim_outcome": "Won",
   "final_score": "4-1",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": 4500,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": "1.38",
   "settled_price": "1.4500",
   "published_at": "2026-01-01T13:04:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T20:12:23.193Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
   "record_part": "source_reported",
   "record_part_words": "Source-reported history",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-9ed97999d6332644829b4c4b",
   "url": null,
   "match": "Cultural Leonesa v Real Sociedad II",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2026-01-03T13:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "LaLiga Segunda",
   "lead_hours": -6775.2,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: Cultural Leonesa at 1.68",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "1-1",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": "1.68",
   "settled_price": "1.8000",
   "published_at": "2026-01-01T13:00:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T20:12:23.317Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
   "record_part": "source_reported",
   "record_part_words": "Source-reported history",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
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   "published_at": "2025-02-28T11:59:35.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-11T22:07:38.482Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
   "record_part": "source_reported",
   "record_part_words": "Source-reported history",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-0ee6400fe4d72122d4c134bd",
   "url": null,
   "match": "Córdoba v Granada CF",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-03-02T13:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "LaLiga Segunda",
   "lead_hours": -14121.1,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: draw at 2.8",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "reason_code": "disputed_reading",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
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   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-02-28T11:59:22.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-11T22:07:38.796Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
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   "record_part_words": "Source-reported history",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-a594df8aab742014865bcc30",
   "url": null,
   "match": "Real Zaragoza v Sporting Gijón",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-03-01T17:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "LaLiga Segunda",
   "lead_hours": -14164.1,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: draw at 2.52",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "reason_code": "disputed_reading",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
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   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": null,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T21:37:40.782Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
   "record_part": "archived",
   "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-76280f910edb9055813a0b04",
   "url": null,
   "match": "Levante UD v Sporting Gijón",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-02-16T13:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "LaLiga Segunda",
   "lead_hours": -14480.4,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: draw at 2.8",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "reason_code": "disputed_reading",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
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   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": null,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T21:21:11.411Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
   "record_part": "archived",
   "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-44845a84b7f5989f71c6a25c",
   "url": null,
   "match": "Bačka Topola v Jagiellonia",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-02-13T17:45:00.000Z",
   "competition": "UEFA Conference League",
   "lead_hours": -14546.7,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: draw at 3.3",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "reason_code": "disputed_reading",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
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   "published_at": "2025-02-11T08:29:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T20:25:29.990Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
   "record_part": "source_reported",
   "record_part_words": "Source-reported history",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-d55a83866ffd4e9e9e56982a",
   "url": null,
   "match": "Albacete Balompié v Real Zaragoza",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-02-07T19:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "LaLiga Segunda",
   "lead_hours": -14688.9,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: draw at 2.8",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "reason_code": "disputed_reading",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-02-05T06:15:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T20:25:52.840Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
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   "record_part_words": "Source-reported history",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  }
 ],
 "lead_time": {
  "contract_version": 1,
  "threshold_hours": 2.0,
  "picks": 434,
  "before_kickoff": 0,
  "after_kickoff": 434,
  "at_least_2h": 0,
  "share_2h_plus": 0.0,
  "median_hours": null,
  "min_hours": null,
  "max_hours": null,
  "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off."
 },
 "baseline": {
  "contract_version": 1,
  "series_code": "market_price",
  "rule": "recorded-line-1.0",
  "state": "none",
  "picks": 0,
  "settled_picks_all": 0,
  "excluded": {
   "market_without_favourite": 0,
   "no_recorded_line": 0,
   "favourite_not_settled": 0
  },
  "staked_hundredths": 0,
  "author_net_hundredths": 0,
  "favourite_net_hundredths": 0,
  "difference_hundredths": 0,
  "author_return_percent": null,
  "favourite_return_percent": null,
  "author_hit_rate": null,
  "favourite_hit_rate": null,
  "picked_favourite_share": null,
  "by_market": [],
  "return_over_time": [],
  "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out."
 },
 "pagination": {
  "per_page": 20,
  "total": 434,
  "pages": 23,
  "page_urls": [
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   "/authors/emre-demir/picks/7/",
   "/authors/emre-demir/picks/8/",
   "/authors/emre-demir/picks/9/",
   "/authors/emre-demir/picks/10/",
   "/authors/emre-demir/picks/11/",
   "/authors/emre-demir/picks/12/",
   "/authors/emre-demir/picks/13/",
   "/authors/emre-demir/picks/14/",
   "/authors/emre-demir/picks/15/",
   "/authors/emre-demir/picks/16/",
   "/authors/emre-demir/picks/17/",
   "/authors/emre-demir/picks/18/",
   "/authors/emre-demir/picks/19/",
   "/authors/emre-demir/picks/20/",
   "/authors/emre-demir/picks/21/",
   "/authors/emre-demir/picks/22/",
   "/authors/emre-demir/picks/23/"
  ],
  "groups": {
   "settled": 404,
   "pending": 0,
   "excluded": 30
  },
  "continuation": "by_time",
  "page": 1,
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  "current": false
 },
 "title_tag": "Emre Demir Predictions: Verified Record, Results and Sources",
 "calculator": null,
 "person": {
  "person_id": "o-09640472fc640dd325458790",
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  "name_shown": "Emre Demir",
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  },
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   {
    "entity_ref": "e-09640472fc640dd325458790",
    "medium": "FutbolTR",
    "channel": "section pages",
    "domain": "futboltr.com",
    "source_info": null,
    "byline": "Emre Demir",
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    "summary": {
     "statements": 434,
     "predictions": 434,
     "settled_picks": 54,
     "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
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 "data_revision": {
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  "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
  "sample": {
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 },
 "number_changes": [
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    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
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    "composition_hash": "61b8eeaf72ac19b583d382df597a8e150a698523d7ecf74b1884fd655b9c301f",
    "text": "+14.84% on 61 settled picks across 61 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
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    "composition_hash": "2378359be252a781d612f2417cad58693d640a72cdbfa0a089425f532656f41e",
    "text": "+7.56% on 54 settled picks across 54 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Data corrected: 7 picks left the headline sample.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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   "correction_id": "i-f2d970ea743ef2b9abcf"
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  {
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   "category": "coverage_extended",
   "category_words": "Coverage extended",
   "before": null,
   "after": {
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    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
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    "composition_hash": "61b8eeaf72ac19b583d382df597a8e150a698523d7ecf74b1884fd655b9c301f",
    "text": "+14.84% on 61 settled picks across 61 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "First headline number for this record: 61 settled picks in the series “historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only”.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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 ],
 "counts_by_slice": {
  "portions": [
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    "code": "archived",
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    "total_check": true,
    "market_list": [
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      "net_points_hundredths": 28250,
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      "period_from": "2025-02-16",
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     },
     {
      "code_name": "both_teams_score",
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      "return_percent": "16.9",
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     },
     {
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    ],
    "leagues": [
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      "period_from": "2025-02-16",
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       },
       {
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        "period_from": "2025-02-16",
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      ]
     },
     {
      "code_name": "UEFA Conference League",
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      "league_markets": [
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       },
       {
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       },
       {
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        "small_sample": true,
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       }
      ]
     },
     {
      "code_name": "UEFA Europa League",
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      "small_sample": true,
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      "league_markets": [
       {
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        "period_from": "2025-08-07",
        "period_to": "2025-08-07",
        "small_sample": true,
        "average_odds": "1.60",
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       },
       {
        "code_name": "1x2",
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        "won": 1,
        "void": 0,
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        "return_percent": null,
        "period_from": "2025-08-28",
        "period_to": "2025-08-28",
        "small_sample": true,
        "average_odds": "1.42",
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       }
      ]
     },
     {
      "code_name": "Bundesliga",
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      "url": "/football/competitions/bundesliga/",
      "settled_picks": 1,
      "won": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "net_points_hundredths": -10000,
      "return_percent": "-100.0",
      "period_from": "2025-02-14",
      "period_to": "2025-02-14",
      "small_sample": true,
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