{
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 "url": "/authors/dennis-koch/",
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 "language": "en",
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 "translations": [],
 "heading": "Dennis Koch: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "3 settled picks by Dennis Koch archived before kick-off across 3 matches, 16 Apr 2026 – 31 Aug 2026: won 1 of 3, reconstructed at archived prices.",
 "first_paragraph": {
  "body": "Forecast Record restored 3 settled archived picks by Dennis Koch from copies archived before kick-off, across 3 matches between 16 April and 31 August 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 1 of 3 settled archived picks. Of the 522 predictions we hold for Dennis Koch, 521 are linked to matches: 5 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive, 320 from the source’s own history and 196 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "key_number": "3",
  "data": "2026-11-07",
  "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot",
  "brand": "Forecast Record"
 },
 "indexable": false,
 "noindex_reason": "too_few_settled",
 "indexing_threshold": {
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  "required_settled": 10,
  "required_dates": 2,
  "live_count": 0,
  "restored_count": 368,
  "of_them_archived": 5
 },
 "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
 "built_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
 "lastmod": "2026-11-08T02:12:33.000Z",
 "content_hash": null,
 "meaning_hash": "d0e6d1d628becd7b8063d5085c7e03e6000e0b342783f588b25dd32f5e5421bd",
 "dependency_group": "author:e-539f8b05c1496527847381b3",
 "release_id": "20261107-195223",
 "markup": [
  {
   "type_code": "WebPage",
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  },
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 ],
 "exports": [
  {
   "type_code": "json",
   "url": "/authors/dennis-koch/index.json",
   "bytes": null
  },
  {
   "type_code": "csv",
   "url": "/authors/dennis-koch/picks.csv",
   "bytes": null
  }
 ],
 "modules": {
  "affiliate": true,
  "api": true,
  "compare_yourself": false
 },
 "affiliate_block": {
  "container": true,
  "request_url": "/partnery/moi",
  "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.",
  "page_category": "author"
 },
 "restrictions": {
  "name_withdrawn": false,
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  "withdrawal_log_number": 0
 },
 "page_links": {
  "methodology": "/methodology/",
  "right_of_reply": "/right-of-reply/",
  "source_coverage": "/coverage/",
  "corrections_log": "/corrections/",
  "api": "/api/",
  "claim": "/claim/"
 },
 "entity": {
  "id": "e-539f8b05c1496527847381b3",
  "public_name": "Dennis Koch",
  "tracker_number": 2572,
  "status": "active",
  "inactive_since": null,
  "verified_creator": false,
  "observation_period": {
   "since": "2026-10-09",
   "until": "2026-10-16"
  },
  "platform_list": [
   {
    "medium": "website",
    "handle": null,
    "url": null,
    "link_confirmed": false,
    "show": true
   }
  ],
  "comment": null
 },
 "headline_number": {
  "metric": {
   "metric_id": "p-e-539f8b05c1496527847381b3-roi-market-price-90d-z99",
   "code_name": "roi_market_price",
   "display_name": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot",
   "window_kind": "90d",
   "window_from": "2026-08-09",
   "window_to": "2026-11-07",
   "amount": null,
   "unit": "percent",
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "no pick in this window has been settled",
   "n_bets": 0,
   "n_events": 0,
   "n_void": null,
   "ci_low": null,
   "ci_high": null,
   "ci_method": "not_estimated",
   "price_source": "market_price",
   "coverage_percent": null,
   "breakdown": [],
   "methodology_version": "2.2",
   "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
   "enough_for_ranking": false,
   "series_key": "market_price",
   "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot"
  },
  "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 0 settled picks across 0 matches",
  "average_odds": null,
  "odds_from_author": null,
  "odds_from_snapshot": null
 },
 "metrics": [],
 "history": [],
 "simulation": {
  "series_key": null,
  "series_label": "No level stake placed",
  "bankroll_hundredths": 1000000,
  "reserve_hundredths": 0,
  "issued_total_hundredths": 1000000,
  "initial_hundredths": 1000000,
  "stake_hundredths": 10000,
  "top_up_count": 0,
  "profit_hundredths": 0,
  "rewards_off": null,
  "data_points": [],
  "top_ups": [],
  "rule": "Every tracked author starts with 10,000 points and stakes 100 per qualifying pick. This author has 0 settled bets, so the bankroll stands at its starting value."
 },
 "simulations": [],
 "completeness": {
  "detected": 1260,
  "recognised": 522,
  "accepted": 383,
  "executed": 383,
  "calculated": 368,
  "gaps": [
   {
    "cause": "read after the match, from archived pages",
    "figure": 96
   },
   {
    "cause": "not_supported",
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   }
  ]
 },
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  "dictionary_version": "1",
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  "of_them_restored": 1259,
  "not_predictions": {
   "opinions": 82,
   "not_about_a_match": 656,
   "unclassified": 0
  },
  "predictions": 522,
  "predictions_restored": 521,
  "matches": 12,
  "admitted": 383,
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  "qualifying_picks_restored": 383,
  "settled_picks": 368,
  "settled_picks_restored": 368,
  "series_list": [
   {
    "code_name": "retro_author_price",
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    "pending_picks": 14,
    "matches": 331,
    "operations_settled": 366,
    "stakes_hundredths": [
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    "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price"
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   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "derived": false,
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    "stakes_hundredths": [
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    "methodologies": [
     "retro-1.1"
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    "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   }
  ],
  "gaps": [
   {
    "code_name": "after_match",
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   },
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    "code_name": "not_supported",
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  ],
  "duplicates": 2,
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  {
   "observation_id": "n-cf9d48c95a0183a3f48e847e",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-cf9d48c95a0183a3f48e847e",
   "quote_text": "würden wir angesichts der Talfahrt des englischen Rekordmeisters den Rot-Blauen eine Chance von mindestens 25 Prozent für den Heimsieg einräumen.",
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   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/viktoria-pilsen-vs-manchester-united-tipp-prognose-quoten-12-12-2024-europa-league",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Dennis Koch",
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-12-12T22:43:44.000Z",
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    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-f5d80c4e2d52e970c180bd58",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-f5d80c4e2d52e970c180bd58",
   "quote_text": "ist unserer Ansicht nach keinerlei Value in der vermeintlichen Favoritenwette zu finden.",
   "fragment_from": 8724,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/viktoria-pilsen-vs-manchester-united-tipp-prognose-quoten-12-12-2024-europa-league",
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    "speaker": "Dennis Koch",
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-12-12T22:43:44.000Z",
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    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
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     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
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   },
   "settlements": [],
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   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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  {
   "observation_id": "n-366d4aae46cf2d884d11abfe",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-366d4aae46cf2d884d11abfe",
   "quote_text": "Noch nie zuvor hat es bislang ein internationales Pflichtspiel zwischen beiden Mannschaften gegeben",
   "fragment_from": 7926,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/viktoria-pilsen-vs-manchester-united-tipp-prognose-quoten-12-12-2024-europa-league",
    "display_name": null,
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   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-12-12T22:43:44.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:25.287Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
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   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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  {
   "observation_id": "n-12dbf0339275e89bb98b8e98",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-12dbf0339275e89bb98b8e98",
   "quote_text": "Zwar blieb United an den ersten fünf Spieltagen der Europa League-Ligaphase ungeschlagen (zwei Siege, drei Remis).",
   "fragment_from": 6680,
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   "published_at": null,
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   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
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    "fragment_basis": "no",
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    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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   "observation_id": "n-f47f9132a679fb2646c935d2",
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   "quote_text": "Es war bereits die sechste Niederlage im 15. Premier League-Spiel der Saison 2024/25 (fünf Siege, vier Remis).",
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   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
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    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-12-12T22:43:44.000Z",
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    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-f9495e6bd48a280cc05290c8",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-f9495e6bd48a280cc05290c8",
   "quote_text": "Mit 2:3 mussten die Red Devils sich Nottingham Forest vor heimischer Kulisse im Theatre of Dreams geschlagen geben.",
   "fragment_from": 5851,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
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   "observation_id": "n-c4fb4f58bd64ac7563399de2",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-c4fb4f58bd64ac7563399de2",
   "quote_text": "Trainer Miroslav Koubek kann somit aus dem Vollen schöpfen und eine entsprechend schlagkräftige Elf aufstellen",
   "fragment_from": 4948,
   "fragment_to": 5058,
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   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/viktoria-pilsen-vs-manchester-united-tipp-prognose-quoten-12-12-2024-europa-league",
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   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
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    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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   "settlements": [],
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   "observation_id": "n-88371a02289c263542affab3",
   "url": "/authors/dennis-koch/picks/28/#pick-n-88371a02289c263542affab3",
   "quote_text": "Handicap: Sieg Heim [telefon-vyrezan]",
   "fragment_from": 1969,
   "fragment_to": 2006,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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    "fragment_basis": "no",
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    "flags": [
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     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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  {
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "fragment_basis": "no",
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    "flags": [
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     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
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   },
   "settlements": [],
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  {
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   "url": "/authors/dennis-koch/picks/28/#pick-n-e09580986ee34c903b95f2bc",
   "quote_text": "Bei LeoVegas spielen wir Tipp 1 vorsichtig mit zwei Units an.",
   "fragment_from": 10265,
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   "source_info": {
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   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
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    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
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    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
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   },
   "settlements": [],
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-51614f7fcec7d088c11c5fcf",
   "url": "/authors/dennis-koch/picks/27/#pick-n-51614f7fcec7d088c11c5fcf",
   "quote_text": "Über 3.5 Tore\n\nmittel\n\n2.05 bei Bet-at-home",
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/vfb-stuttgart-vs-celtic-glasgow-tipp-prognose-quoten-26-02-2026-europa-league",
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   },
   "published_at": "2026-02-26T07:13:10.000Z",
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   "statement_class": "priced",
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    "display_name": "VfB Stuttgart v Celtic",
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   },
   "market_label": "Over/Under 3.5 goals",
   "outcome_label": "over 3.5",
   "odds_set": {
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    "closing": "1.8800",
    "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "loss",
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   "executed_by": "ours",
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
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   "dates": {
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    "fragment_basis": "page",
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    "flags": [],
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    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
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   "author_claim": {
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    "in_words": "Over/Under 3.5 goals: over 3.5 at 2.05"
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "in_words": "Lost: the final score was VfB Stuttgart 0-1 Celtic."
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   "settlements": [
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     "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
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     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Over/Under 3.5 goals",
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     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
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     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:24:54.484Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
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   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
   "authorship": {
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    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
    "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/vfb-stuttgart-vs-celtic-glasgow-tipp-prognose-quoten-26-02-2026-europa-league",
    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
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   "url": "/authors/dennis-koch/picks/27/#pick-n-1f50cf499e4dedcbedfdbc6b",
   "quote_text": "Undav trifft\n\nmittel\n\n1.93 bei Oddset",
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/vfb-stuttgart-vs-celtic-glasgow-tipp-prognose-quoten-26-02-2026-europa-league",
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   },
   "published_at": "2026-02-26T07:13:10.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:13:14.484Z",
   "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:24:54.451Z",
   "statement_class": "priced",
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    "scoreline": "0-1"
   },
   "market_label": "Player to score",
   "outcome_label": "Undav to score",
   "odds_set": {
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   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "loss",
   "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": "ours",
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
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    "fragment_basis": "page",
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   "quote_text": "Der Wettanbieter LeoVegas offeriert auf dem Dreiweg-Markt Notierungen in Höhe von sage und schreibe 15.00 für Tipp 2.",
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   },
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   ],
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   },
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   ],
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   "observation_id": "n-df243f18af025e7fa390ff97",
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   "quote_text": "Letzte Spiele von Sturm Graz:",
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   },
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-99b7e3f118a769b8d2b82096",
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   "quote_text": "Voraussichtliche Aufstellung von Sturm Graz:",
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   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-7443bc175a603dcdd20e204f",
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-10-01T06:32:05.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:09:14.095Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-729c2df1aa56ad59841d5574",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-729c2df1aa56ad59841d5574",
   "quote_text": "Wettquoten Stand: 30.09.2024, 09:46",
   "fragment_from": 11736,
   "fragment_to": 11771,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/red-bull-salzburg-vs-brest-tipp-prognose-quoten-01-10-2024-champions-league",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Dennis Koch",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "b5018caab292fa50d7bd669fa303ba7db2f1eed32f80ce49ef84be7989898322",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:09:14.095Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
   "cause": null,
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": null,
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-10-01T06:32:05.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:09:14.095Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-24acd4c85c77e35279bd0889",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-24acd4c85c77e35279bd0889",
   "quote_text": "Quoten-Wahrscheinlichkeiten für Sieg Red Bull Salzburg / Unentschieden / Sieg Brest:",
   "fragment_from": 11399,
   "fragment_to": 11483,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/red-bull-salzburg-vs-brest-tipp-prognose-quoten-01-10-2024-champions-league",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Dennis Koch",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "b5018caab292fa50d7bd669fa303ba7db2f1eed32f80ce49ef84be7989898322",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:09:14.095Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
   "cause": null,
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": null,
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-10-01T06:32:05.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-16T03:09:14.095Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  }
 ],
 "excluded_from_feed": {
  "ads": 43,
  "service": 0,
  "ruleset_version": "3"
 },
 "standing": null,
 "retro": {
  "restored_total": 368,
  "of_them_archived_pre_match": 5,
  "found_post_match": 54,
  "of_them_source_reported": 309,
  "live_count": 0,
  "date_count": 218,
  "span_from": "2024-10-01",
  "span_to": "2026-10-11",
  "line_text": "restored history: 368, of which pre-match archive 5",
  "body": "We re-read what this author published before Premier League, Championship, League Cup, Champions League, Europa League, Conference League, Brasileiro Série A, Copa Libertadores, Copa Sudamericana, Bundesliga, LaLiga, LaLiga Segunda, Ligue 1, International Soccer, Serie A, Süper Lig and MLS Next Pro matches between 1 October 2024 and 11 October 2026 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 368. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 5. Taken from the source’s own published history, published before kick-off by the source’s own date: 309. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 54. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.",
  "precision": {
   "n": 367,
   "share": "0.5313"
  },
  "series_list": [
   {
    "code_name": "retro_author_price",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
    "n": 365,
    "roi": "-8.0767",
    "ci_low": "-18.8503",
    "ci_high": "1.9299",
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price",
    "n": 0,
    "roi": null,
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": "no restored pick with this price"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "n": 349,
    "roi": "-7.3639",
    "ci_low": "-18.5370",
    "ci_high": "3.9673",
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   }
  ],
  "clv": {
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above"
  },
  "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
  "leagues": [
   "Premier League",
   "Championship",
   "League Cup",
   "Champions League",
   "Europa League",
   "Conference League",
   "Brasileiro Série A",
   "Copa Libertadores",
   "Copa Sudamericana",
   "Bundesliga",
   "LaLiga",
   "LaLiga Segunda",
   "Ligue 1",
   "International Soccer",
   "Serie A",
   "Süper Lig",
   "MLS Next Pro"
  ],
  "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 0 settled restored picks and forecasts, and the two agree; 368 come from one provider only. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged."
 },
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": null,
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "wettbasis.com",
   "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/viktoria-pilsen-vs-manchester-united-tipp-prognose-quoten-12-12-2024-europa-league"
  },
  "observed_from": "2026-10-09",
  "observed_to": "2026-10-16",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
  "series": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
  "restored": true,
  "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
  "headline_part": "archived",
  "settled_picks": 3,
  "matches": 3,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": -11500,
  "staked_hundredths": 30000,
  "return_percent": "-38.33",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2026-04-16",
  "period_to": "2026-08-31",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "retro-1.1",
  "short_history": true,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record restored 3 settled archived picks by Dennis Koch from copies archived before kick-off, across 3 matches between 16 April and 31 August 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 1 of 3 settled archived picks. Of the 522 predictions we hold for Dennis Koch, 521 are linked to matches: 5 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive, 320 from the source’s own history and 196 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled archived picks",
    "value": "3",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "3",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "−115 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "value": "−38.3%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": null
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [
   "Most of this history comes from the source’s own published record: 320 predictions dated by the source. 300 of them are settled in a historical price series; titles and rankings use the live record.",
   "Reconstructed at archived prices: these picks were restored from copies of the author’s pages that an independent web archive saved before kick-off, at the last pre-match archive prices, bookmaker margin included."
  ],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": null,
   "archived": {
    "part": "archived",
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. These picks were restored from copies an independent web archive saved before kick-off; the line shows how they settled at archived prices.",
    "settled_picks": 3,
    "matches": 3,
    "match_dates": 3,
    "period_from": "2026-04-16",
    "period_to": "2026-08-31",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": -11500,
    "low": {
     "date": "2026-08-23",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -20000,
     "after_picks": 2
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2026-04-16",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000,
     "after_picks": 1
    },
    "line_drawn": false,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2026-04-16",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000,
      "n": 1,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-08-23",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -20000,
      "n": 2,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-08-31",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -11500,
      "n": 3,
      "picks": 1
     }
    ]
   }
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record restored 3 settled archived picks by Dennis Koch from copies archived before kick-off, across 3 matches between 16 April and 31 August 2026. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 1 of 3 settled archived picks. Of the 522 predictions we hold for Dennis Koch, 521 are linked to matches: 5 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive, 320 from the source’s own history and 196 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/dennis-koch/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "retro-1.1"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 522,
   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 1,
   "proven_predictions": 5,
   "proven_checked": 5,
   "proven_measured": 3,
   "proven_dates": 5,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 5,
     "checked": 5,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 3,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 3,
      "net_points_hundredths": -11500,
      "staked_hundredths": 30000,
      "return_percent": "-38.33",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2026-04-16",
      "period_to": "2026-08-31",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 3,
       "return_main_percent": "-38.33",
       "return_other_percent": "-36.67",
       "settled_excluding_void": 3,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -11500,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -11000,
       "period_from": "2026-04-16",
       "period_to": "2026-08-31"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 5,
      "priced": 3
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 3,
      "won": 1,
      "won_percent": "33.3",
      "implied_percent": "56.0",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 2,
        "implied_percent": "57.0"
       },
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "54.1"
       }
      ]
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 196,
     "checked": 54,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 46,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 21,
      "net_points_hundredths": -7000,
      "staked_hundredths": 460000,
      "return_percent": "-1.52",
      "interval_low": "-51.85",
      "interval_high": "46.15",
      "interval_note": null,
      "period_from": "2024-10-01",
      "period_to": "2026-08-06",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 44,
       "return_main_percent": "-5.45",
       "return_other_percent": "-8.27",
       "settled_excluding_void": 44,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -24000,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -36400,
       "period_from": "2024-10-01",
       "period_to": "2026-08-06"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 54,
      "priced": 46
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 46,
      "won": 22,
      "won_percent": "47.8",
      "implied_percent": "51.6",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 8,
        "picks": 17,
        "implied_percent": "53.1"
       },
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 3,
        "picks": 10,
        "implied_percent": "47.3"
       },
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 3,
        "picks": 7,
        "implied_percent": "56.8"
       },
       {
        "market": "Team goals",
        "won": 3,
        "picks": 6,
        "implied_percent": "49.5"
       },
       {
        "market": "Double chance",
        "won": 3,
        "picks": 4,
        "implied_percent": "46.9"
       },
       {
        "market": "Other markets",
        "won": 2,
        "picks": 2,
        "implied_percent": "57.2"
       }
      ]
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "source_reported",
     "title": "Source-reported history",
     "explanation": "The time and the pick are known only from the source’s own history; it is the basis of the record check and never part of the evidenced total.",
     "predictions": 320,
     "checked": 309,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 300,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 300,
      "net_points_hundredths": -238500,
      "staked_hundredths": 3000000,
      "return_percent": "-7.95",
      "interval_low": "-17.98",
      "interval_high": "2.03",
      "interval_note": null,
      "period_from": "2025-02-28",
      "period_to": "2026-10-11",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 300,
       "return_main_percent": "-7.95",
       "return_other_percent": "-7.95",
       "settled_excluding_void": 300,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -238500,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -238400,
       "period_from": "2025-02-28",
       "period_to": "2026-10-11"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 309,
      "priced": 300
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 300,
      "won": 162,
      "won_percent": "54.0",
      "implied_percent": "57.4",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 88,
        "picks": 146,
        "implied_percent": "57.6"
       },
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 39,
        "picks": 74,
        "implied_percent": "60.2"
       },
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 29,
        "picks": 68,
        "implied_percent": "54.6"
       },
       {
        "market": "Double chance",
        "won": 4,
        "picks": 6,
        "implied_percent": "56.3"
       },
       {
        "market": "Result and total goals",
        "won": 2,
        "picks": 5,
        "implied_percent": "53.2"
       },
       {
        "market": "Result and both teams to score",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "34.5"
       }
      ]
     }
    }
   ]
  },
  "live_alongside": null,
  "headline_record_ids": [
   "n-33f8c5bf721beb18446e2b6d",
   "n-6cc1e80ed4e2f4bfa0e9ba44",
   "n-8af1f54badb0582618620b85"
  ],
  "interval_low": null,
  "interval_high": null,
  "caption": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) · 100 points per pick · 16 April – 31 August 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under reconstruction method 1.1",
  "record_from": "2024-10-01",
  "record_to": "2026-10-16"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
  {
   "record_id": "n-68de31018f13b1d9734728b8",
   "url": "/authors/dennis-koch/picks/4/#pick-n-68de31018f13b1d9734728b8",
   "match": "Lazio v Monza",
   "match_url": "/football/matches/lazio-vs-monza-2026-10-11/",
   "kickoff": "2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Serie A",
   "lead_hours": -31.1,
   "market_code": "both_teams_score",
   "author_said": "Both teams to score: yes at 1.83",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Won",
   "claim_outcome": "Won",
   "final_score": "3-1",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": 7000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": "1.83",
   "settled_price": "1.7000",
   "published_at": "2026-10-11T05:42:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T20:06:54.220Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
   "record_part": "source_reported",
   "record_part_words": "Source-reported history",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-68de31018f13b1d9734728b8",
    "quote_text": "Beide treffen: Ja\n\nmittel\n\n1.83",
    "fragment_from": 1388,
    "fragment_to": 1419,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
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     "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/lazio-rom-vs-monza-tipp-ki-prognose-quoten-11-10-2026",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Dennis Koch",
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    },
    "published_at": "2026-10-11T05:42:00.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-12T20:06:54.220Z",
    "executed_at": "2026-10-13T20:11:12.179Z",
    "statement_class": "priced",
    "status": "too_late",
    "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
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     "display_name": "Lazio v Monza",
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     "url": "/football/matches/lazio-vs-monza-2026-10-11/",
     "scoreline": "3-1"
    },
    "market_label": "Both teams to score",
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     "our_snapshot": null,
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     "closing": "1.7000",
     "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
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    "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
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    "provenance": "source_reported_history",
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     "fragment_basis": "page",
     "source_page_at": "2026-10-11T05:42:00.000Z",
     "detected_at": "2026-10-12T20:06:54.220Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [],
     "flag_words": null,
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "source_stated_date",
    "origin_detail": "source_reported_history",
    "origin_words": "Source-reported history",
    "added_on": "Added to our record on 12 Oct 2026",
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "Both teams to score",
     "choice": "yes",
     "author_odds": "1.83",
     "market_key": "both_teams_score",
     "choice_key": "yes",
     "period": "match",
     "line": null,
     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "Both teams to score: yes at 1.83"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
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     "scoreline": "3-1",
     "data_status": "measured",
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     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
     "in_words": "Won: the final score was Lazio 3-1 Monza."
    },
    "settlements": [
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      "series_key": "retro_author_price",
      "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "Both teams to score",
      "choice": "yes",
      "decimal_odds": "1.83",
      "odds_role": "author_price",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
      "status_text": "Executed",
      "result": "win",
      "result_words": "Won",
      "change_hundredths": 8300,
      "executed_at": "2026-10-13T20:11:12.179Z",
      "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
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     },
     {
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      "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
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      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "Both teams to score",
      "choice": "yes",
      "decimal_odds": "1.7000",
      "odds_role": "closing_odds",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
      "status_text": "Executed",
      "result": "win",
      "result_words": "Won",
      "change_hundredths": 7000,
      "executed_at": "2026-10-13T20:11:12.179Z",
      "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
      "on_claim_market": true,
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     }
    ],
    "corrections": [],
    "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
    "authorship": {
     "material_author": "Dennis Koch",
     "publisher": "Wettbasis",
     "forecaster": "Dennis Koch",
     "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
     "basis": null,
     "status": "not_named",
     "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
     "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
     "evidence_fragment": null,
     "material_url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/lazio-rom-vs-monza-tipp-ki-prognose-quoten-11-10-2026",
     "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
     "verdict_by": null,
     "verdict_line": null
    },
    "correction": null,
    "choice_words": "yes (Both teams to score)"
   }
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-e9e8bc6b544152087fd1ca23",
   "url": "/authors/dennis-koch/picks/4/#pick-n-e9e8bc6b544152087fd1ca23",
   "match": "FC Augsburg v FC Bayern München",
   "match_url": "/football/matches/fc-augsburg-vs-fc-bayern-munchen-2026-10-10/",
   "kickoff": "2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Bundesliga",
   "lead_hours": -54.6,
   "market_code": "half_time_full_time",
   "author_said": "Half-time/full-time: FC Bayern München at half-time, FC Bayern München at full-time at 1.6",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "2-2",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "retro_author_price",
   "series_short": "author's odds, restored",
   "author_price": "1.6",
   "settled_price": "1.6",
   "published_at": "2026-10-09T22:59:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T20:07:05.291Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
   "record_part": "source_reported",
   "record_part_words": "Source-reported history",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
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   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-e9e8bc6b544152087fd1ca23",
    "quote_text": "HT/FT 2/2\n\ngering\n\n1.60",
    "fragment_from": 1672,
    "fragment_to": 1695,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "website",
     "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/augsburg-vs-bayern-tipp-ki-prognose-quoten-10-10-2026",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Dennis Koch",
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    "detected_at": "2026-10-12T20:07:05.291Z",
    "executed_at": "2026-10-13T20:11:03.442Z",
    "statement_class": "priced",
    "status": "too_late",
    "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
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    "event": {
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     "display_name": "FC Augsburg v FC Bayern München",
     "competition_name": "Bundesliga",
     "starts_at": "2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z",
     "url": "/football/matches/fc-augsburg-vs-fc-bayern-munchen-2026-10-10/",
     "scoreline": "2-2"
    },
    "market_label": "Half-time/full-time",
    "outcome_label": "FC Bayern München at half-time, FC Bayern München at full-time",
    "odds_set": {
     "by_author": "1.6",
     "our_snapshot": null,
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     "closing": null,
     "closing_source": null
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
    "result": "loss",
    "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000,
    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
    "executed_by": "ours",
    "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
    "withdrawn": false,
    "provenance": "source_reported_history",
    "provenance_words": "Source-reported history",
    "dates": {
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     "fragment_basis": "page",
     "source_page_at": "2026-10-09T22:59:00.000Z",
     "detected_at": "2026-10-12T20:07:05.291Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [],
     "flag_words": null,
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "source_stated_date",
    "origin_detail": "source_reported_history",
    "origin_words": "Source-reported history",
    "added_on": "Added to our record on 12 Oct 2026",
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "Half-time/full-time",
     "choice": "FC Bayern München at half-time, FC Bayern München at full-time",
     "author_odds": "1.6",
     "market_key": "half_time_full_time",
     "choice_key": "2/2",
     "period": "match",
     "line": null,
     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "Half-time/full-time: FC Bayern München at half-time, FC Bayern München at full-time at 1.6"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
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     "scoreline": "2-2",
     "data_status": "measured",
     "cause": null,
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
     "in_words": "Lost: the final score was FC Augsburg 2-2 FC Bayern München."
    },
    "settlements": [
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      "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "Half-time/full-time",
      "choice": "FC Bayern München at half-time, FC Bayern München at full-time",
      "decimal_odds": "1.6",
      "odds_role": "author_price",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
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      "result": "loss",
      "result_words": "Lost",
      "change_hundredths": -10000,
      "executed_at": "2026-10-13T20:11:03.442Z",
      "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
      "on_claim_market": true,
      "replaced": false
     }
    ],
    "corrections": [],
    "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
    "authorship": {
     "material_author": "Dennis Koch",
     "publisher": "Wettbasis",
     "forecaster": "Dennis Koch",
     "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
     "basis": null,
     "status": "not_named",
     "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
     "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
     "evidence_fragment": null,
     "material_url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/augsburg-vs-bayern-tipp-ki-prognose-quoten-10-10-2026",
     "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
     "verdict_by": null,
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    },
    "correction": null,
    "choice_words": "FC Bayern München at half-time, FC Bayern München at full-time"
   }
  },
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   "url": "/authors/dennis-koch/picks/4/#pick-n-bacb8daec2c016e31e3a42cb",
   "match": "Trabzonspor v Galatasaray",
   "match_url": "/football/matches/trabzonspor-vs-galatasaray-2026-09-19/",
   "kickoff": "2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Süper Lig",
   "lead_hours": -555.2,
   "market_code": "total",
   "author_said": "Over/Under 3.5 goals: under 3.5 at 1.73",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "4-0",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": "1.73",
   "settled_price": "1.6000",
   "published_at": "2026-09-18T22:24:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-12T20:09:12.539Z",
   "origin": "Source-reported history",
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   "evidence": {
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    "source_info": {
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     "speaker": "Dennis Koch",
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    },
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    "detected_at": "2026-10-12T20:09:12.539Z",
    "executed_at": "2026-10-13T20:10:41.193Z",
    "statement_class": "priced",
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    "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
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     "competition_name": "Süper Lig",
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     "url": "/football/matches/trabzonspor-vs-galatasaray-2026-09-19/",
     "scoreline": "4-0"
    },
    "market_label": "Over/Under 3.5 goals",
    "outcome_label": "under 3.5",
    "odds_set": {
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     "our_snapshot": null,
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     "closing": "1.6000",
     "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
    "result": "loss",
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    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
    "executed_by": "ours",
    "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
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    "provenance": "source_reported_history",
    "provenance_words": "Source-reported history",
    "dates": {
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     "fragment_basis": "page",
     "source_page_at": "2026-09-18T22:24:00.000Z",
     "detected_at": "2026-10-12T20:09:12.539Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [],
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     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "source_stated_date",
    "origin_detail": "source_reported_history",
    "origin_words": "Source-reported history",
    "added_on": "Added to our record on 12 Oct 2026",
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "Over/Under 3.5 goals",
     "choice": "under 3.5",
     "author_odds": "1.73",
     "market_key": "total",
     "choice_key": "under",
     "period": "match",
     "line": "3.5",
     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "Over/Under 3.5 goals: under 3.5 at 1.73"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
     "result": "loss",
     "scoreline": "4-0",
     "data_status": "measured",
     "cause": null,
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
     "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Trabzonspor 4-0 Galatasaray."
    },
    "settlements": [
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      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "Over/Under 3.5 goals",
      "choice": "under 3.5",
      "decimal_odds": "1.73",
      "odds_role": "author_price",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
      "status_text": "Executed",
      "result": "loss",
      "result_words": "Lost",
      "change_hundredths": -10000,
      "executed_at": "2026-10-13T20:10:41.193Z",
      "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
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   "quote": "weshalb wir letztlich den Tipp auf die Doppelte Chance 1X bei unter 4,5 Toren empfehlen.\n\nHierfür stehen bei Leverkusen gegen AC Milan Quoten in Höhe von 1.57 zur Verfügung",
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   "outcome": "Excluded",
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   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
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  },
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   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "den Tipp auf die Doppelte Chance 1X bei unter 4,5 Toren empfehlen",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
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   "outcome": "Excluded",
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   "reason_code": "after_match",
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  },
  {
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   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Auch jetzt sprechen bei Leverkusen gegen AC Milan die Quoten klar gegen „Il Diavolo“.",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
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   "recorded_at": "2026-10-14T02:08:53.483Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-1b1cb5e6de9c658e8a58adbe",
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   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Unter 3.5 Tore\n\n1.58",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
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   "published_at": null,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-14T02:08:53.483Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-79492820b5a401aeeff00b72",
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   "match_url": null,
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   "competition": null,
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   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "1X & U4.5\n\n1.57",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
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   "recorded_at": "2026-10-14T02:08:53.483Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-b80cbe0430e300df28766888",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Bei Betway finden wir für diese kombinierte Wette Notierungen in Höhe von 1.80, die wir mit fünf von zehn Units anspielen.",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": null,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-14T01:53:26.136Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-ab981de6988e1af6491c914c",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Für den Tipp auf unter 2,5 Tore bietet Sunmaker Quoten in Höhe von 2.06 an.",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": null,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-14T01:53:26.136Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-1cef2c42f30f7a297e52edb3",
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   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Entsprechend stimmig ist der kombinierte Tipp auf die Doppelte Chance 1X bei unter 3,5 Toren.",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": null,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-14T01:53:26.136Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-8d8a4486ed031d7a90b856f1",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Somit tendiert bei Juventus gegen PSV Eindhoven unsere Prognose klar zu den Bianconeri.",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": null,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-14T01:53:26.136Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-4844f34b7e4c73eb544827fe",
   "url": "/authors/dennis-koch/picks/21/#pick-n-4844f34b7e4c73eb544827fe",
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Unter 1.5 (1. HZ)\n\n1.58",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
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   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": null,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-13T01:31:40.495Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": {
    "at": "2026-10-14T02:01:14.106Z",
    "field": "line sign",
    "reason": "Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and the outcome is worked out on it. This pick was never executed, so no number changes.",
    "version": 2,
    "url": "/corrections/#c-f1b2048399e9",
    "text": "Corrected on 14 October 2026: Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and"
   },
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-4844f34b7e4c73eb544827fe",
    "quote_text": "Unter 1.5 (1. HZ)\n\n1.58",
    "fragment_from": 1973,
    "fragment_to": 1996,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "website",
     "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/inter-mailand-vs-rb-leipzig-tipp-prognose-quoten-26-11-2024-champions-league",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Dennis Koch",
     "authorship": "channel_owner",
     "media_from_ms": null,
     "bundle_id": "c7af8c1e6f23889c0dc6a4439175a8511716d416bd635381eab7cde012c8ac2c",
     "material_removed": false
    },
    "published_at": null,
    "detected_at": "2026-10-13T01:31:40.495Z",
    "executed_at": null,
    "statement_class": "priced",
    "status": "too_late",
    "cause": "",
    "cause_code": "too_late",
    "event": null,
    "market_label": null,
    "outcome_label": null,
    "odds_set": {
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     "our_snapshot": null,
     "our_snapshot_at": null,
     "our_snapshot_source": null,
     "closing": null,
     "closing_source": null
    },
    "stake_hundredths": null,
    "result": null,
    "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
    "executed_by": null,
    "series_label": null,
    "withdrawn": false,
    "provenance": "found_post_match",
    "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "dates": {
     "fragment_at": null,
     "fragment_basis": "no",
     "source_page_at": "2024-11-27T07:31:56.000Z",
     "detected_at": "2026-10-13T01:31:40.495Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [
      "long_before_detection",
      "not_fragment_date"
     ],
     "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "source_stated_date",
    "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
    "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "added_on": null,
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": null,
    "author_claim_outcome": {
     "result": null,
     "scoreline": null,
     "data_status": "unknown",
     "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
    },
    "settlements": [],
    "corrections": [
     {
      "at": "2026-10-14T02:01:14.106Z",
      "field_name": "line sign",
      "was": "Over/Under −1.5 goals, first half · under −1.5",
      "now": "Over/Under 1.5 goals, first half · under 1.5",
      "cause": "Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and the outcome is worked out on it. This pick was never executed, so no number changes."
     }
    ],
    "funnel_stage": "prediction",
    "authorship": null,
    "correction": {
     "at": "2026-10-14T02:01:14.106Z",
     "field": "line sign",
     "reason": "Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and the outcome is worked out on it. This pick was never executed, so no number changes.",
     "version": 2,
     "url": "/corrections/#c-f1b2048399e9",
     "text": "Corrected on 14 October 2026: Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and"
    },
    "choice_words": "a pick"
   }
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-a1ef3f0319a308925fa16e27",
   "url": "/authors/dennis-koch/picks/21/#pick-n-a1ef3f0319a308925fa16e27",
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   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Unter 3.5 Tore\n\n1.60",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
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   "series_code": null,
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   "settled_price": null,
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   "recorded_at": "2026-10-13T01:31:40.495Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": {
    "at": "2026-10-14T02:01:14.090Z",
    "field": "line sign",
    "reason": "Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and the outcome is worked out on it. This pick was never executed, so no number changes.",
    "version": 2,
    "url": "/corrections/#c-f1b2048399e9",
    "text": "Corrected on 14 October 2026: Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and"
   },
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-a1ef3f0319a308925fa16e27",
    "quote_text": "Unter 3.5 Tore\n\n1.60",
    "fragment_from": 1931,
    "fragment_to": 1951,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "website",
     "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/inter-mailand-vs-rb-leipzig-tipp-prognose-quoten-26-11-2024-champions-league",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Dennis Koch",
     "authorship": "channel_owner",
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     "bundle_id": "c7af8c1e6f23889c0dc6a4439175a8511716d416bd635381eab7cde012c8ac2c",
     "material_removed": false
    },
    "published_at": null,
    "detected_at": "2026-10-13T01:31:40.495Z",
    "executed_at": null,
    "statement_class": "priced",
    "status": "too_late",
    "cause": "",
    "cause_code": "too_late",
    "event": null,
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    "odds_set": {
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     "our_snapshot_at": null,
     "our_snapshot_source": null,
     "closing": null,
     "closing_source": null
    },
    "stake_hundredths": null,
    "result": null,
    "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
    "executed_by": null,
    "series_label": null,
    "withdrawn": false,
    "provenance": "found_post_match",
    "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "dates": {
     "fragment_at": null,
     "fragment_basis": "no",
     "source_page_at": "2024-11-27T07:31:56.000Z",
     "detected_at": "2026-10-13T01:31:40.495Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [
      "long_before_detection",
      "not_fragment_date"
     ],
     "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "source_stated_date",
    "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
    "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "added_on": null,
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": null,
    "author_claim_outcome": {
     "result": null,
     "scoreline": null,
     "data_status": "unknown",
     "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
    },
    "settlements": [],
    "corrections": [
     {
      "at": "2026-10-14T02:01:14.090Z",
      "field_name": "line sign",
      "was": "Over/Under −3.5 goals · under −3.5",
      "now": "Over/Under 3.5 goals · under 3.5",
      "cause": "Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and the outcome is worked out on it. This pick was never executed, so no number changes."
     }
    ],
    "funnel_stage": "prediction",
    "authorship": null,
    "correction": {
     "at": "2026-10-14T02:01:14.090Z",
     "field": "line sign",
     "reason": "Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and the outcome is worked out on it. This pick was never executed, so no number changes.",
     "version": 2,
     "url": "/corrections/#c-f1b2048399e9",
     "text": "Corrected on 14 October 2026: Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and"
    },
    "choice_words": "a pick"
   }
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-c3150b47c09fd22f2a41661d",
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   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Alternativ ließe sich auch unabhängig vom Ausgang der Partie bei ODDSET darauf wetten, dass Brighton mindestens zwei Mal trifft.",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": null,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:46:58.793Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-84e827eb40faf11e133e4491",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "geht bei Brighton gegen Tottenham unsere Prognose zum kombinierten Tipp auf die Doppelte Chance 1X bei über 1,5 Toren.\n\nHierfür liefert Betway uns eine Quote von 1.90, die wir mit drei von zehn…",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": null,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:46:58.793Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-1c9c794184090f48ef66c475",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Alternativ könnte bei sportwetten.de auch der kombinierte Tipp darauf abgegeben werden, dass Manchester City gewinnt und Erling Haaland nach drei torlosen Premier League-Spielen in Folge erstmals…",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": null,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:45:58.924Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-55fb650b679dd8174a80489b",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "bei Merkur Bets auch zu Quoten von 2.38 den Tipp auf den Auswärtssieg der ten Hag-Elf abgeben",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": null,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:45:53.891Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-6075055e787e8115d342d504",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Alternativ stünden bei ODDSET Quoten in Höhe von 1.66 für über 2,5 Tore zur Verfügung, was ebenfalls einiges an Value verspricht und auch einen hohen Zu-Null-Sieg eines der beiden Teams abdecken…",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": null,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:44:37.773Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-a86183fdbf769c2d36939e96",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Für Tore auf beiden Seiten stehen bei Chelsea gegen Arsenal Quoten in Höhe von 1.60 zur Verfügung, die wir bei Winamax mit vier Units anspielen.",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": null,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:44:37.773Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-847453ba3753468f39a90cae",
   "url": "/authors/dennis-koch/picks/2/#pick-n-847453ba3753468f39a90cae",
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Alternativ ließe sich bei NEO.bet auch darauf setzen, dass maximal ein Treffer im ersten Durchgang fällt.",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": null,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:44:33.474Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": {
    "at": "2026-10-14T02:01:02.728Z",
    "field": "line sign",
    "reason": "Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and the outcome is worked out on it. This pick was never executed, so no number changes.",
    "version": 2,
    "url": "/corrections/#c-f1b2048399e9",
    "text": "Corrected on 14 October 2026: Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and"
   },
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-847453ba3753468f39a90cae",
    "quote_text": "Alternativ ließe sich bei NEO.bet auch darauf setzen, dass maximal ein Treffer im ersten Durchgang fällt.",
    "fragment_from": 1277,
    "fragment_to": 1382,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "website",
     "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/manchester-city-vs-tottenham-tipp-prognose-quoten-23-11-2024",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Dennis Koch",
     "authorship": "channel_owner",
     "media_from_ms": null,
     "bundle_id": "a71850e6e9b9a3d66fb8efa00a55ef87cc7f9792577dbca6994e0a2980506693",
     "material_removed": false
    },
    "published_at": null,
    "detected_at": "2026-10-09T14:44:33.474Z",
    "executed_at": null,
    "statement_class": "unpriced",
    "status": "too_late",
    "cause": "",
    "cause_code": "too_late",
    "event": null,
    "market_label": null,
    "outcome_label": null,
    "odds_set": {
     "by_author": null,
     "our_snapshot": null,
     "our_snapshot_at": null,
     "our_snapshot_source": null,
     "closing": null,
     "closing_source": null
    },
    "stake_hundredths": null,
    "result": null,
    "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
    "executed_by": null,
    "series_label": null,
    "withdrawn": false,
    "provenance": "found_post_match",
    "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "dates": {
     "fragment_at": null,
     "fragment_basis": "no",
     "source_page_at": "2024-11-24T01:55:00.000Z",
     "detected_at": "2026-10-09T14:44:33.474Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [
      "long_before_detection",
      "not_fragment_date"
     ],
     "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "source_stated_date",
    "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
    "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "added_on": null,
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": null,
    "author_claim_outcome": {
     "result": null,
     "scoreline": null,
     "data_status": "unknown",
     "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
    },
    "settlements": [],
    "corrections": [
     {
      "at": "2026-10-14T02:01:02.728Z",
      "field_name": "line sign",
      "was": "Over/Under −1.5 goals, first half · under −1.5",
      "now": "Over/Under 1.5 goals, first half · under 1.5",
      "cause": "Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and the outcome is worked out on it. This pick was never executed, so no number changes."
     }
    ],
    "funnel_stage": "prediction",
    "authorship": null,
    "correction": {
     "at": "2026-10-14T02:01:02.728Z",
     "field": "line sign",
     "reason": "Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and the outcome is worked out on it. This pick was never executed, so no number changes.",
     "version": 2,
     "url": "/corrections/#c-f1b2048399e9",
     "text": "Corrected on 14 October 2026: Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and"
    },
    "choice_words": "a pick"
   }
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-97e4b80f2b42e8ab35e3ac1b",
   "url": "/authors/dennis-koch/picks/2/#pick-n-97e4b80f2b42e8ab35e3ac1b",
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Wir empfehlen daher die Wette auf unter 3,5 Treffer, für die bei Manchester City gegen Tottenham Wettquoten in Höhe von 2.00 ausgeschrieben werden, die wir bei Bet-at-home mit vier Units anspielen.",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": null,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:44:33.474Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": {
    "at": "2026-10-14T02:01:02.710Z",
    "field": "line sign",
    "reason": "Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and the outcome is worked out on it. This pick was never executed, so no number changes.",
    "version": 2,
    "url": "/corrections/#c-f1b2048399e9",
    "text": "Corrected on 14 October 2026: Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and"
   },
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-97e4b80f2b42e8ab35e3ac1b",
    "quote_text": "Wir empfehlen daher die Wette auf unter 3,5 Treffer, für die bei Manchester City gegen Tottenham Wettquoten in Höhe von 2.00 ausgeschrieben werden, die wir bei Bet-at-home mit vier Units anspielen.",
    "fragment_from": 8079,
    "fragment_to": 8276,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "website",
     "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/manchester-city-vs-tottenham-tipp-prognose-quoten-23-11-2024",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Dennis Koch",
     "authorship": "channel_owner",
     "media_from_ms": null,
     "bundle_id": "a71850e6e9b9a3d66fb8efa00a55ef87cc7f9792577dbca6994e0a2980506693",
     "material_removed": false
    },
    "published_at": null,
    "detected_at": "2026-10-09T14:44:33.474Z",
    "executed_at": null,
    "statement_class": "priced",
    "status": "too_late",
    "cause": "",
    "cause_code": "too_late",
    "event": null,
    "market_label": null,
    "outcome_label": null,
    "odds_set": {
     "by_author": null,
     "our_snapshot": null,
     "our_snapshot_at": null,
     "our_snapshot_source": null,
     "closing": null,
     "closing_source": null
    },
    "stake_hundredths": null,
    "result": null,
    "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
    "executed_by": null,
    "series_label": null,
    "withdrawn": false,
    "provenance": "found_post_match",
    "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "dates": {
     "fragment_at": null,
     "fragment_basis": "no",
     "source_page_at": "2024-11-24T01:55:00.000Z",
     "detected_at": "2026-10-09T14:44:33.474Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [
      "long_before_detection",
      "not_fragment_date"
     ],
     "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "source_stated_date",
    "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
    "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "added_on": null,
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": null,
    "author_claim_outcome": {
     "result": null,
     "scoreline": null,
     "data_status": "unknown",
     "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
    },
    "settlements": [],
    "corrections": [
     {
      "at": "2026-10-14T02:01:02.710Z",
      "field_name": "line sign",
      "was": "Over/Under −3.5 goals · under −3.5",
      "now": "Over/Under 3.5 goals · under 3.5",
      "cause": "Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and the outcome is worked out on it. This pick was never executed, so no number changes."
     }
    ],
    "funnel_stage": "prediction",
    "authorship": null,
    "correction": {
     "at": "2026-10-14T02:01:02.710Z",
     "field": "line sign",
     "reason": "Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and the outcome is worked out on it. This pick was never executed, so no number changes.",
     "version": 2,
     "url": "/corrections/#c-f1b2048399e9",
     "text": "Corrected on 14 October 2026: Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and"
    },
    "choice_words": "a pick"
   }
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-cbb727140a358a83052e4d12",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Alternativ könnte bei Bwin zu Quoten von 2.15 auch der Tipp darauf angespielt werden, dass Dauerbrenner Ollie Watkins unabhängig vom Ausgang der Partie einen Treffer erzielen wird.",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": null,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:44:24.160Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-170059f06a8ccf7cbbfee873",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Hierfür stehen bei Betano Quoten in Höhe von 1.80 zur Verfügung",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": null,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:44:24.160Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-9cb9ac1aa9bd0cf7a7b32568",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Bei Winamax stehen Quoten in Höhe von 2.85 für Tipp 1 zur Verfügung, was wir mit zwei Units vorsichtig anspielen.",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": null,
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:43:28.659Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-10c81b1715301305cd9ad690",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Mit drei Units spielen wir diese Außenseiterwette dennoch vorsichtig bei LeoVegas an.",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
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   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-01-22T07:12:27.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-16T03:08:32.403Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-b0baf16a55b453e24df9b8a1",
   "url": "/authors/dennis-koch/picks/2/#pick-n-b0baf16a55b453e24df9b8a1",
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Für unter 2,5 Tore stehen bei Betano Notierungen in Höhe von 2.18 zum Nachspielen bereit, die wir mit vier von zehn Units anspielen.",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
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   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-01-16T22:27:16.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:39:29.862Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
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   "favourite": null,
   "correction": {
    "at": "2026-10-14T02:01:02.015Z",
    "field": "line sign",
    "reason": "Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and the outcome is worked out on it. This pick was never executed, so no number changes.",
    "version": 2,
    "url": "/corrections/#c-f1b2048399e9",
    "text": "Corrected on 14 October 2026: Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and"
   },
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-b0baf16a55b453e24df9b8a1",
    "quote_text": "Für unter 2,5 Tore stehen bei Betano Notierungen in Höhe von 2.18 zum Nachspielen bereit, die wir mit vier von zehn Units anspielen.",
    "fragment_from": 8213,
    "fragment_to": 8345,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "website",
     "url": "https://www.wettbasis.com/sportwetten-tipps/ipswich-vs-brighton-tipp-prognose-quoten-16-01-2025",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Dennis Koch",
     "authorship": "channel_owner",
     "media_from_ms": null,
     "bundle_id": "b90b7eb368ea9048c7b595fe82ff3e6edde5202d4956d356edfd130b27fd8357",
     "material_removed": false
    },
    "published_at": "2025-01-16T22:27:16.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-09T14:39:29.862Z",
    "executed_at": null,
    "statement_class": "priced",
    "status": "too_late",
    "cause": "",
    "cause_code": "too_late",
    "event": null,
    "market_label": null,
    "outcome_label": null,
    "odds_set": {
     "by_author": null,
     "our_snapshot": null,
     "our_snapshot_at": null,
     "our_snapshot_source": null,
     "closing": null,
     "closing_source": null
    },
    "stake_hundredths": null,
    "result": null,
    "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
    "executed_by": null,
    "series_label": null,
    "withdrawn": false,
    "provenance": "found_post_match",
    "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "dates": {
     "fragment_at": "2025-01-16T22:27:16.000Z",
     "fragment_basis": "page",
     "source_page_at": "2025-01-16T22:27:16.000Z",
     "detected_at": "2026-10-09T14:39:29.862Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [],
     "flag_words": null,
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "source_stated_date",
    "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
    "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "added_on": null,
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": null,
    "author_claim_outcome": {
     "result": null,
     "scoreline": null,
     "data_status": "unknown",
     "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
    },
    "settlements": [],
    "corrections": [
     {
      "at": "2026-10-14T02:01:02.015Z",
      "field_name": "line sign",
      "was": "Over/Under −2.5 goals · under −2.5",
      "now": "Over/Under 2.5 goals · under 2.5",
      "cause": "Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and the outcome is worked out on it. This pick was never executed, so no number changes."
     }
    ],
    "funnel_stage": "prediction",
    "authorship": null,
    "correction": {
     "at": "2026-10-14T02:01:02.015Z",
     "field": "line sign",
     "reason": "Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and the outcome is worked out on it. This pick was never executed, so no number changes.",
     "version": 2,
     "url": "/corrections/#c-f1b2048399e9",
     "text": "Corrected on 14 October 2026: Data corrected: line sign. The line of this over/under market was recorded with a minus sign; a total cannot be negative, and the source gives the line without one. The line now matches the source and"
    },
    "choice_words": "a pick"
   }
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 "lead_time": {
  "contract_version": 1,
  "threshold_hours": 2.0,
  "picks": 383,
  "before_kickoff": 0,
  "after_kickoff": 383,
  "at_least_2h": 0,
  "share_2h_plus": 0.0,
  "median_hours": null,
  "min_hours": null,
  "max_hours": null,
  "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off."
 },
 "baseline": {
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  "rule": "recorded-line-1.0",
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  "picks": 0,
  "settled_picks_all": 0,
  "excluded": {
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   "favourite_not_settled": 0
  },
  "staked_hundredths": 0,
  "author_net_hundredths": 0,
  "favourite_net_hundredths": 0,
  "difference_hundredths": 0,
  "author_return_percent": null,
  "favourite_return_percent": null,
  "author_hit_rate": null,
  "favourite_hit_rate": null,
  "picked_favourite_share": null,
  "by_market": [],
  "return_over_time": [],
  "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out."
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   "/authors/dennis-koch/picks/16/",
   "/authors/dennis-koch/picks/17/",
   "/authors/dennis-koch/picks/18/",
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   "/authors/dennis-koch/picks/20/",
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   "/authors/dennis-koch/picks/23/",
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  "groups": {
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  "continuation": "by_time",
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 "title_tag": "Dennis Koch Predictions: Verified Record, Results and Sources",
 "calculator": null,
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    "channel": "section pages",
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    "byline": "Dennis Koch",
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     "predictions": 522,
     "settled_picks": 3,
     "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
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 "number_changes": [
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   "category": "coverage_extended",
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    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
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    "text": "−115.00 points on 3 settled picks across 3 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "First headline number for this record: 3 settled picks in the series “historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only”.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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    "total_check": true,
    "market_list": [
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      "in_words": "Over/under goals",
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      "period_from": "2026-04-16",
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     },
     {
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    ],
    "leagues": [
     {
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      "in_words": "LaLiga",
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      "league_markets": [
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        "won": 0,
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        "net_points_hundredths": -10000,
        "return_percent": null,
        "period_from": "2026-08-23",
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     },
     {
      "code_name": "Serie A",
      "in_words": "Serie A",
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      "league_markets": [
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      ]
     },
     {
      "code_name": "UEFA Conference League",
      "in_words": "UEFA Conference League",
      "url": "/football/competitions/uefa-conference-league/",
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      "league_markets": [
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  "body": "Record tracked by Forecast Record since 9 October 2026 · 522 predictions · last change 16 October 2026",
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  "days": 450,
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    "min_days": 90
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 "colleagues": null,
 "author_type": "Tipster",
 "data_changes": {
  "added_later": "28 records added on 9 Oct 2026 found after the match; 317 records added on 12 Oct 2026 from the source's own history; 86 records added on 16 Oct 2026 found after the match; 90 more records added on other dates. The current numbers include them; numbers published earlier, including the record before each match, do not change.",
  "records_corrected": 5,
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}