{ "schema_name": "page", "schema_version": "2.0", "page_type": "author", "url": "/authors/dan-childs/", "canonical": "/authors/dan-childs/", "language": "en", "hreflang": [], "translations": [], "heading": "Dan Childs: Football Prediction Record", "description": "Verified record: 24 settled picks by Dan Childs recorded before kick-off across 21 matches, 10 Oct 2026 – 7 Nov 2026: −49.0% at our recorded market prices.", "first_paragraph": { "body": "Forecast Record recorded 24 settled live picks by Dan Childs before kick-off across 21 matches between 10 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −49.0% on the total staked. Of the 615 predictions we hold for Dan Childs, 492 are linked to matches: 88 were recorded by us before kick-off, 227 archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 177 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "key_number": "−49.0%", "data": "2026-11-07", "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot", "brand": "Forecast Record" }, "indexable": false, "noindex_reason": "outside_core", "indexing_threshold": { "settled_count": 117, "date_count": 92, "required_settled": 10, "required_dates": 2, "live_count": 0, "restored_count": 193, "of_them_archived": 121 }, "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "built_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "lastmod": "2026-11-08T02:12:33.000Z", "content_hash": null, "meaning_hash": "34a19bbc24bbc7660b47fa4603629b7d31aa5ade03758eb659d39d994410c698", "dependency_group": "author:e-c00a8da54862db8df20f105d", "release_id": "20261107-195223", "markup": [ { "type_code": "WebPage", "allowed": true, "cause": null }, { "type_code": "Organization", "allowed": true, "cause": null }, { "type_code": "Person", "allowed": true, "cause": null } ], "exports": [ { "type_code": "json", "url": "/authors/dan-childs/index.json", "bytes": null }, { "type_code": "csv", "url": "/authors/dan-childs/picks.csv", "bytes": null } ], "modules": { "affiliate": true, "api": true, "compare_yourself": false }, "affiliate_block": { "container": true, "request_url": "/partnery/moi", "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.", "page_category": "author" }, "restrictions": { "name_withdrawn": false, "tracker_number": null, "withdrawn_quotes": [], "removed_at": null, "cause": null, "suspended_records": [], "withdrawal_log_number": 0 }, "page_links": { "methodology": "/methodology/", "right_of_reply": "/right-of-reply/", "source_coverage": "/coverage/", "corrections_log": "/corrections/", "api": "/api/", "claim": "/claim/" }, "entity": { "id": "e-c00a8da54862db8df20f105d", "public_name": "Dan Childs", "tracker_number": 1526, "status": "active", "inactive_since": null, "verified_creator": false, "observation_period": { "since": "2026-09-28", "until": "2026-11-07" }, "platform_list": [ { "medium": "website", "handle": null, "url": null, "link_confirmed": false, "show": true } ], "comment": null }, "headline_number": { "metric": { "metric_id": "p-e-c00a8da54862db8df20f105d-roi-market-price-90d-z99", "code_name": "roi_market_price", "display_name": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot", "window_kind": "90d", "window_from": "2026-08-09", "window_to": "2026-11-07", "amount": "-49.0435", "unit": "percent", "data_status": "calculated", "cause": null, "n_bets": 24, "n_events": 21, "n_void": 1, "ci_low": "-81.6500", "ci_high": "-13.6087", "ci_method": "cluster_bootstrap", "price_source": "market_price", "coverage_percent": null, "breakdown": [], "methodology_version": "2.2", "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "enough_for_ranking": false, "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "series_uid": null }, "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 24 settled picks across 21 matches", "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, "metrics": [], "history": [], "simulation": { "series_key": null, "series_label": "No level stake placed", "bankroll_hundredths": 1000000, "reserve_hundredths": 0, "issued_total_hundredths": 1000000, "initial_hundredths": 1000000, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "top_up_count": 0, "profit_hundredths": 0, "rewards_off": null, "data_points": [], "top_ups": [], "rule": "Every tracked author starts with 10,000 points and stakes 100 per qualifying pick. This author has 0 settled bets, so the bankroll stands at its starting value." }, "simulations": [], "completeness": { "detected": 1832, "recognised": 615, "accepted": 325, "executed": 279, "calculated": 223, "gaps": [ { "cause": "not_supported", "figure": 134 }, { "cause": "read after the match, from archived pages", "figure": 105 }, { "cause": "not_checked", "figure": 38 }, { "cause": "other reading", "figure": 28 }, { "cause": "National-team matches", "figure": 22 }, { "cause": "disputed_reading", "figure": 8 }, { "cause": "outside the method", "figure": 1 } ] }, "record_counts": { "dictionary_version": "1", "statements": 1832, "of_them_restored": 1163, "not_predictions": { "opinions": 260, "not_about_a_match": 950, "unclassified": 0 }, "predictions": 615, "predictions_restored": 402, "matches": 45, "admitted": 325, "qualifying_picks": 279, "qualifying_picks_restored": 245, "settled_picks": 223, "settled_picks_restored": 198, "series_list": [ { "code_name": "market_price", "derived": false, "is_restored": false, "qualifying_picks": 32, "settled_picks": 24, "void": 1, "pending_picks": 8, "matches": 21, "operations_settled": 24, "stakes_hundredths": [ 10000 ], "methodologies": [ "2.2" ], "display_name": "At an independent odds snapshot" }, { "code_name": "author_price", "derived": false, "is_restored": false, "qualifying_picks": 33, "settled_picks": 25, "void": 1, "pending_picks": 8, "matches": 22, "operations_settled": 25, "stakes_hundredths": [ 10000 ], "methodologies": [ "2.1", "2.2" ], "display_name": "At the author's stated price" }, { "code_name": "retro_market_closing", "derived": false, "is_restored": true, "qualifying_picks": 29, "settled_picks": 25, "void": 0, "pending_picks": 4, "matches": 22, "operations_settled": 25, "stakes_hundredths": [ 10000 ], "methodologies": [ "retro-1.0" ], "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price" }, { "code_name": "retro_author_price", "derived": false, "is_restored": true, "qualifying_picks": 181, "settled_picks": 149, "void": 11, "pending_picks": 32, "matches": 118, "operations_settled": 152, "stakes_hundredths": [ 10000 ], "methodologies": [ "retro-1.0" ], "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price" }, { "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm", "derived": false, "is_restored": true, "qualifying_picks": 181, "settled_picks": 151, "void": 1, "pending_picks": 30, "matches": 109, "operations_settled": 152, "stakes_hundredths": [ 10000 ], "methodologies": [ "retro-1.1" ], "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)" } ], "gaps": [ { "code_name": "not_supported", "cause": "not_supported", "figure": 134 }, { "code_name": "after_match", "cause": "read after the match, from archived pages", "figure": 105 }, { "code_name": "not_checked", "cause": "not_checked", "figure": 38 }, { "code_name": "ambiguous", "cause": "other reading", "figure": 28 }, { "code_name": "outside_coverage", "cause": "National-team matches", "figure": 22 }, { "code_name": "disputed_reading", "cause": "disputed_reading", "figure": 8 }, { "code_name": "not_admitted", "cause": "outside the method", "figure": 1 } ], "duplicates": 45, "junk": { "ads": 76, "service": 6 }, "dictionary_url": "/methodology/#words" }, "evidence_items": [ { "observation_id": "n-43a0cd946ca6f7a06707de87", "url": "/authors/dan-childs/picks/22/#pick-n-43a0cd946ca6f7a06707de87", "quote_text": "Middlesbrough to qualify\n1pt 31-10 Betfair, Paddy Power", "fragment_from": 1318, "fragment_to": 1373, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240813152851id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl-cup/leeds-vs-middlesbrough-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-aAklL0J2Gq1K/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Dan Childs", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "ce8f7dc696f4360fad2d526bd7b8b92a7d0eed072ae802ffcf8dbcc9ac998970", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:54:30.412Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "priced", "status": "not_supported", "cause": "", "cause_code": "not_supported", "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "restored_archive", "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": null, "fragment_basis": "no", "source_page_at": "2024-08-13T11:52:50.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:54:30.412Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [ "long_before_detection", "not_fragment_date" ], "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.", "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-1829ba3ff867ff28d85326d0", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-1829ba3ff867ff28d85326d0", "quote_text": "Probable teams\n\nCoventry (4-3-3): Dovin; Van Ewijk, Thomas, Binks, Bidwell; Rudoni, Allen, Torp; Sakamoto, Simms, Wright.\nSubs: Mason-Clark, Eccles, Thomas-Asante, Palmer, Latibeaudiere, Tavares, Dasilva, Andrews, Kitching.\n\nOxford (4-1-4-1): Cumming; Long, Moore, Brown, Bennett; Vaulks; Goodrham, Rodrigues, Brannagan, Placheta; Harris.\nSubs: El Mizouni, Leigh, Odonkor, McEachran, Sibley, Ebiowei, Kioso, Scarlett, Phillips.", "fragment_from": 4417, "fragment_to": 4844, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240815160337id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/coventry-vs-oxford-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-acwNM5v94UgK/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Dan Childs", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "a2a4fe797bd16c1877cc755a4fab40945a1774d4fbf3de295e17e40bbbfe384e", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:54:22.456Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "restored_archive", "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": null, "fragment_basis": "no", "source_page_at": "2024-08-15T12:16:25.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:54:22.456Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [ "long_before_detection", "not_fragment_date" ], "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.", "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-32523368e61f3d8050c78332", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-32523368e61f3d8050c78332", "quote_text": "Coventry vs Oxford team news\n\nCoventry\nMidfielder Ben Sheaf remains sidelined.\n\nOxford\nOxford have a largely healthy squad and manager Des Buckingham is expected to revert to last weekend's starting line-up.", "fragment_from": 4208, "fragment_to": 4415, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240815160337id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/coventry-vs-oxford-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-acwNM5v94UgK/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Dan Childs", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "a2a4fe797bd16c1877cc755a4fab40945a1774d4fbf3de295e17e40bbbfe384e", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:54:22.456Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "restored_archive", "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": null, "fragment_basis": "no", "source_page_at": "2024-08-15T12:16:25.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:54:22.456Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [ "long_before_detection", "not_fragment_date" ], "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.", "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-a48c3fc3bc934ae3ef43aedc", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-a48c3fc3bc934ae3ef43aedc", "quote_text": "Key stat\n\nCoventry are winless in their last seven Championship games", "fragment_from": 4137, "fragment_to": 4206, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240815160337id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/coventry-vs-oxford-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-acwNM5v94UgK/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Dan Childs", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "a2a4fe797bd16c1877cc755a4fab40945a1774d4fbf3de295e17e40bbbfe384e", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:54:22.456Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "restored_archive", "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": null, "fragment_basis": "no", "source_page_at": "2024-08-15T12:16:25.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:54:22.456Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [ "long_before_detection", "not_fragment_date" ], "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.", "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-80d042918ac78b35215ad06d", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-80d042918ac78b35215ad06d", "quote_text": "Overall the squad looks well equipped for the marathon 46-game campaign but confidence could be fragile after the poor run of league results and a share of the spoils might have to be accepted against Oxford, who have shown they are ready to compete in their new environment.", "fragment_from": 3860, "fragment_to": 4135, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240815160337id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/coventry-vs-oxford-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-acwNM5v94UgK/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Dan Childs", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "a2a4fe797bd16c1877cc755a4fab40945a1774d4fbf3de295e17e40bbbfe384e", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:54:22.456Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "restored_archive", "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": null, "fragment_basis": "no", "source_page_at": "2024-08-15T12:16:25.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:54:22.456Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [ "long_before_detection", "not_fragment_date" ], "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.", "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-9385ada71fd190c94787aa44", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-9385ada71fd190c94787aa44", "quote_text": "Robins has been busy strengthening the spine of his team with goalkeeper Oliver Dovin, centre-back Luis Binks, midfielder Jack Rudoni and striker Brandon Thomas-Asante among the permanent summer acquisitions.", "fragment_from": 3650, "fragment_to": 3858, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240815160337id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/coventry-vs-oxford-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-acwNM5v94UgK/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Dan Childs", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "a2a4fe797bd16c1877cc755a4fab40945a1774d4fbf3de295e17e40bbbfe384e", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:54:22.456Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": 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source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.", "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-ea7d55276ea6d76fca8c7731", "url": "/authors/dan-childs/picks/22/#pick-n-ea7d55276ea6d76fca8c7731", "quote_text": "Stoke\n2pts 11-10 Hills", "fragment_from": 1240, "fragment_to": 1262, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": 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"Stoke City", "author_odds": "2.1", "market_key": "1x2", "choice_key": "1", "period": "match", "line": null, "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "1X2, match result: Stoke City at 2.1" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "loss", "scoreline": "1-3", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Stoke City 1-3 Hull City." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "fd5e51543ef0b198e3a7079258e3ab1447988ee392799629ae7cafabbb1de916", "series_key": "retro_author_price", "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "choice": "Stoke City", "decimal_odds": "2.1", "odds_role": "author_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "loss", "result_words": "Lost", "change_hundredths": -10000, "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:03.670Z", "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false }, { "operation_id": "90845943debbdf7d0163f1e7456310777da153b09973e64b64f01deb09460b1e", "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm", "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "choice": "Stoke City", "decimal_odds": "2.1000", "odds_role": "closing_odds", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "loss", "result_words": "Lost", "change_hundredths": -10000, "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:03.678Z", "methodology_version": "retro-1.1", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "settled_pick", "authorship": { "material_author": "Dan Childs", "publisher": "racingpost.com", "forecaster": "Dan Childs", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/stoke-vs-hull-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-aDcg30x0mgiU/", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-e5457af1a915fc649c4cd549", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-e5457af1a915fc649c4cd549", "quote_text": "there is obvious potential for Boro to get more consistent results.", "fragment_from": 2705, "fragment_to": 2772, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240920143221id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/sunderland-vs-middlesbrough-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-aoYSf3P2Ff6V/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Dan Childs", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": 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source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.", "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-5f8d516e550ed46ffdcdcbbf", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-5f8d516e550ed46ffdcdcbbf", "quote_text": "Probable teams\n\nSunderland (4-3-3): Patterson; Hume, Ballard, O'Nien, Cirkin; Rigg, Neil, Bellingham;", "fragment_from": 3815, "fragment_to": 3916, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240920143221id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/sunderland-vs-middlesbrough-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-aoYSf3P2Ff6V/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Dan Childs", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "2d3fa52fa4efceca91dc31c2c4cd7caf543930003adffa2c6540e2780f20b010", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:51:34.149Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "restored_archive", "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": null, "fragment_basis": "no", "source_page_at": "2024-09-20T13:54:56.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:51:34.149Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [ "long_before_detection", "not_fragment_date" ], "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.", "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-b834c728ff23e3dec7307460", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-b834c728ff23e3dec7307460", "quote_text": "Sunderland are without Aji Alese, Niall Huggins, Jensen Seelt, Alan Browne and Salis Abdul Samed", "fragment_from": 3476, "fragment_to": 3572, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240920143221id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/sunderland-vs-middlesbrough-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-aoYSf3P2Ff6V/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Dan Childs", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "2d3fa52fa4efceca91dc31c2c4cd7caf543930003adffa2c6540e2780f20b010", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:51:34.149Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "restored_archive", "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": null, "fragment_basis": "no", "source_page_at": "2024-09-20T13:54:56.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:51:34.149Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [ "long_before_detection", "not_fragment_date" ], "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.", "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-2226e840e114cb439b01f039", "url": "/authors/dan-childs/picks/22/#pick-n-2226e840e114cb439b01f039", "quote_text": "Liverpool and under 3.5 goals\n1pt 13-8 BoyleSports", "fragment_from": 9023, "fragment_to": 9073, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240920170326id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/premier-league-match-predictions-odds-tips-aiIUo5p3uCzj/", "display_name": null, "speaker": null, "authorship": "unknown", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "950622fec637383dbbe095f1c2532d367c363eca349875c67ae31a75617cf7ca", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2024-09-20T16:19:49.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:51:23.951Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "priced", "status": "too_late", "cause": "counted in the restored-history series", "cause_code": "disputed_reading", "event": { "event_id": null, "display_name": "Liverpool v AFC Bournemouth", "competition_name": "Premier League", "starts_at": "2024-09-21T14:00:00.000Z", "url": null, "scoreline": null }, "market_label": "Match result and over/under 3.5 goals", "outcome_label": "Liverpool to win and under 3.5 goals", "odds_set": { "by_author": "2.625", "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": "2.7450", "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)" }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "unknown", "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "restored_archive", "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off", "archive_snapshot_at": "2024-09-20T17:03:26.000Z", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2024-09-20T16:19:49.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2024-09-20T16:19:49.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:51:23.951Z", "archive_snapshot_at": "2024-09-20T17:03:26.000Z", "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "prematch_web_archive", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off", "added_on": "Added to our record on 2 Oct 2026", "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Match result and over/under 3.5 goals", "choice": "Liverpool to win and under 3.5 goals", "author_odds": "2.625", "market_key": "result_and_total", "choice_key": "1-under", "period": "match", "line": "3.5", "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Match result and over/under 3.5 goals: Liverpool to win and under 3.5 goals at 2.62" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "unknown", "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "awaiting a final score for this restored pick", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Pending: awaiting a final score for this restored pick." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "53a1f24cc796928c3688ad99ea991b5bd6c05e8ec2d03b7c31483dceda6b30eb", "series_key": "retro_author_price", "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Match result and over/under 3.5 goals", "choice": "Liverpool to win and under 3.5 goals", "decimal_odds": "2.625", "odds_role": "author_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "skipped", "status_text": "Not executed: ", "result": "unknown", "result_words": "Pending", "change_hundredths": null, "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:27:58.235Z", "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false }, { "operation_id": "ce01d647647fd5deaba792f67446d605b9007a3e7d4fd77e7143bcf4fa9dc8e3", "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm", "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Match result and over/under 3.5 goals", "choice": "Liverpool to win and under 3.5 goals", "decimal_odds": "2.7450", "odds_role": "closing_odds", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "skipped", "status_text": "Not executed: ", "result": "unknown", "result_words": "Pending", "change_hundredths": null, "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:28:09.690Z", "methodology_version": "retro-1.1", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": { "material_author": "Dan Childs, Jamie Griffith", "publisher": "racingpost.com", "forecaster": "Dan Childs", "forecaster_named_in_text": true, "basis": null, "status": 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(both hamstring), Liam Thompson (muscle strain) and Jake Rooney (knee) miss out for the Rams.", "fragment_from": 3457, "fragment_to": 3574, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240927141319id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/derby-vs-norwich-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-aPYIV1B1u6cw/", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Dan Childs", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "e1bf12482bfe3fd5bc013e18e85c337c411ef301e0ac38bdb6645a4163b66e9a", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": null, "detected_at": "2026-10-02T00:50:11.176Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, 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settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null } ], "excluded_from_feed": { "ads": 55, "service": 4, "ruleset_version": "3" }, "standing": { "titles": [], "publication_mode": "top20", "empty_reason": null, "rules_version": "catalog-1", "insufficient": [], "badges_on_page": 0, "header_titles": [], "record_origin": [ { "portion": "live", "n": 51, "body": "51 recorded before kick-off · since 1 Oct 2026" }, { "portion": "archived", "n": 112, "body": "112 from the pre-match archive · 2024–2026" }, { "portion": "found_after", "n": 75, "body": "75 found after the match" } ], "recent_record": [], "record_details": [ { "code_name": "M-11", "body": "Most recorded: Match result (1X2) · 58 matches", "details_words": "Match result (1X2) 23/58 (58 matches); Double chance and draw no bet 11/30 (28 matches); Goals over/under 17/21 (21 matches); Correct score 3/12 (12 matches); Bet-builder combos 5/11 (11 matches); Player props 2/10 (9 matches); Goalscorer picks 5/7 (7 matches); Handicaps 2/7 (6 matches)", "url": null, "provenance": "live+archived", "display_name": "Most recorded bet type", "rule_href": "/titles/m-11-most-recorded-bet-type/" }, { "code_name": "CS-01", "body": "Exact scores · 3/12", "details_words": null, "url": null, "provenance": "archived", "display_name": "Exact scores", "rule_href": "/titles/cs-01-exact-scores/" }, { "code_name": "C-01", "body": "Minority calls · 1/3", "details_words": "Result calls on matches with at least 8 other tipsters and sources, where at least 60.0% of them named another outcome.", "url": null, "provenance": "live", "display_name": "Minority calls", "rule_href": "/titles/c-01-minority-calls/" }, { "code_name": "X-01", "body": "Longest price: correct at 4.20 · 7 Dec 2025", "details_words": "Brighton & Hove Albion v West Ham United · Draw at 4.20 (archive closing price) · from the predicted score: Correct score: Brighton & Hove Albion 1-1 West Ham United at 9", "url": "/authors/dan-childs/picks/5/#pick-n-cf5c2f2e7614efb95b10d4dd", "provenance": "archived", "display_name": "Correct at a long price", "rule_href": "/titles/x-01-correct-at-a-long-price/" }, { "code_name": "E-01", "body": "Draw calls · 2/20", "details_words": null, "url": null, "provenance": "live+archived", "display_name": "Draw calls", "rule_href": "/titles/e-01-draw-calls/" }, { "code_name": "E-03", "body": "Away calls · 11/19", "details_words": null, "url": null, "provenance": "live+archived", "display_name": "Away calls", "rule_href": "/titles/e-03-away-calls/" }, { "code_name": "E-06", "body": "Non-favourite calls · 2/21", "details_words": null, "url": null, "provenance": "live+archived", "display_name": "Non-favourite calls", "rule_href": "/titles/e-06-non-favourite-calls/" } ], "history": [ { "code_name": "E-07", "body": "Away win at 3.17 · Arsenal v Manchester City · 22 Mar 2026 · archive record · removed 22 Oct 2026", "event_at": "2026-10-22", "status": "corrected", "cause": "recomputed after a correction to the record", "provenance": "live" }, { "code_name": "CS-10", "body": "Exact score 1–1 · Brighton & Hove Albion v West Ham United · 7 Dec 2025 · archive record", "event_at": "2025-12-07", "status": "historical", "cause": "90 days after the event", "provenance": "archived" }, { "code_name": "CS-10", "body": "Exact score 0–2 · Rangers v AS Roma · 6 Nov 2025 · archive record", "event_at": "2025-11-06", "status": "historical", "cause": "90 days after the event", "provenance": "archived" }, { "code_name": "CS-10", "body": "Exact score 1–1 · Fulham v Manchester United · 24 Aug 2025 · archive record", "event_at": "2025-08-24", "status": "historical", "cause": "90 days after the event", "provenance": "archived" } ] }, "retro": { "restored_total": 180, "of_them_archived_pre_match": 114, "found_post_match": 66, "of_them_source_reported": 0, "live_count": 0, "date_count": 102, "span_from": "2024-08-15", "span_to": "2026-09-19", "line_text": "restored history: 180, of which pre-match archive 114", "body": "We re-read what this author published before Premier League, Championship, League Cup, Champions League, Europa League, EFL Trophy, Conference League and UEFA Super Cup matches between 15 August 2024 and 19 September 2026 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 180. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 114. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 66. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.", "precision": { "n": 170, "share": "0.4176" }, "series_list": [ { "code_name": "retro_author_price", "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price", "n": 121, "roi": "-4.0845", "ci_low": "-36.4380", "ci_high": "31.2667", "data_status": "calculated", "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "cause": null }, { "code_name": "retro_market_closing", "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price", "n": 22, "roi": "-20.0541", "ci_low": "-65.0350", "ci_high": "30.0600", "data_status": "calculated", "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "cause": null }, { "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm", "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "n": 138, "roi": "5.0507", "ci_low": "-21.0328", "ci_high": "33.4593", "data_status": "calculated", "methodology_version": "retro-1.1", "cause": null }, { "code_name": "retro_derived_sm", "display_name": "Restored score forecast: result implied by the score, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)", "n": 1, "roi": "33.0000", "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "data_status": "calculated", "methodology_version": "retro-1.1", "cause": null } ], "clv": { "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above" }, "methodology_version": "retro-1.0", "leagues": [ "Premier League", "Championship", "League Cup", "Champions League", "Europa League", "EFL Trophy", "Conference League", "UEFA Super Cup" ], "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 60 settled restored picks and forecasts, and the two agree; 120 come from one provider only. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged.", "score_accuracy": { "n": 1, "share": "0.0" } }, "late": null, "price_vs_market": { "contract_version": "1", "threshold_percent": "5", "rows": [ { "basis": "closing", "basis_words": "the closing market price of the same selection (restored history)", "basis_short": "Closing market price (restored)", "compared": 16, "above": 5, "above_share_percent": "31.2", "below": 1, "within": 10, "median_difference_percent": "2.9", "not_comparable": 0, "disputed": 0, "status": "calculated", "sentence": "The author's stated price against the closing price of the same selection: median +2.9% over 16 picks. The price available to followers is the market price, shown separately." } ], "examples": [ { "url": "/authors/dan-childs/picks/2/#pick-n-a17215bb8dd0dd1f7dc0ab97", "basis": "closing", "stated": "2.88", "market": "3.75", "difference_percent": "-23.3" }, { "url": "/authors/dan-childs/picks/8/#pick-n-5587652eb60d90c0cf44b994", "basis": "closing", "stated": "2.15", "market": "1.95", "difference_percent": "10.1" } ], "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way." }, "record_summary": { "contract_version": "1", "entity_type": "person", "entity_words": "Individual author", "source": { "name": "racingpost.com", "url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-betting-tips-predictions-team-news-odds-bet-builder-ah1K12N0YScl/" }, "observed_from": "2026-09-28", "observed_to": "2026-11-07", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "state": "settled", "series_code": "market_price", "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price", "restored": false, "headline_kind": "live_snapshot", "headline_part": "live", "settled_picks": 24, "matches": 21, "void": 1, "net_points_hundredths": -112800, "staked_hundredths": 230000, "return_percent": "-49.04", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "period_from": "2026-10-10", "period_to": "2026-11-07", "status": "calculated", "method_version": "2.2", "short_history": true, "reason": null, "reasons": [], "sentence": "Forecast Record recorded 24 settled live picks by Dan Childs before kick-off across 21 matches between 10 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −49.0% on the total staked. Of the 615 predictions we hold for Dan Childs, 492 are linked to matches: 88 were recorded by us before kick-off, 227 archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 177 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "numbers": [ { "label": "Settled live picks", "value": "24", "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick", "note": "1 void" }, { "label": "Matches", "value": "21", "anchor": "/methodology/#match", "note": null }, { "label": "Net result", "value": "−1,128 points", "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement", "note": "100 points per pick" }, { "label": "Return at our recorded market price", "value": "−49.0%", "anchor": "/methodology/#roi", "note": "95% interval −81.7% to −13.6%" } ], "limitations": [ "This page combines Dan Childs across 3 platforms. The record above counts each prediction once, even when the same pick (match, market and selection) appeared on more than one platform; each platform keeps its own total under “Where Dan Childs publishes”." ], "other_series": [], "return_over_time": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 0, "n": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-11", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000, "n": 2 }, { "date": "2026-10-14", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -20000, "n": 3 }, { "date": "2026-10-15", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -30000, "n": 4 }, { "date": "2026-10-20", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -22600, "n": 5 }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -32600, "n": 6 }, { "date": "2026-10-22", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -42600, "n": 7 }, { "date": "2026-10-25", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -31800, "n": 8 }, { "date": "2026-10-27", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -41800, "n": 9 }, { "date": "2026-10-28", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -51800, "n": 10 }, { "date": "2026-10-30", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -61800, "n": 11 }, { "date": "2026-10-31", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -82800, "n": 17 }, { "date": "2026-11-03", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -82300, "n": 19 }, { "date": "2026-11-04", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -92800, "n": 22 }, { "date": "2026-11-06", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -102800, "n": 23 }, { "date": "2026-11-07", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -112800, "n": 24 } ], "return_over_time_parts": { "live": { "part": "live", "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "x_axis": "match_date", "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.", "settled_picks": 24, "matches": 21, "match_dates": 16, "period_from": "2026-10-10", "period_to": "2026-11-07", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "final_points_hundredths": -112800, "low": { "date": "2026-11-07", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -112800, "after_picks": 24 }, "high": { "date": "2026-10-10", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 0, "after_picks": 1 }, "line_drawn": true, "steps": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 0, "n": 1, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-11", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000, "n": 2, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-14", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -20000, "n": 3, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-15", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -30000, "n": 4, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-20", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -22600, "n": 5, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -32600, "n": 6, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-22", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -42600, "n": 7, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-25", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -31800, "n": 8, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-27", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -41800, "n": 9, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-28", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -51800, "n": 10, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-30", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -61800, "n": 11, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-31", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -82800, "n": 17, "picks": 6 }, { "date": "2026-11-03", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -82300, "n": 19, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2026-11-04", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -92800, "n": 22, "picks": 3 }, { "date": "2026-11-06", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -102800, "n": 23, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-11-07", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -112800, "n": 24, "picks": 1 } ] }, "archived": { "part": "archived", "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "x_axis": "match_date", "dated_note": "Dated by match day. These picks were restored from copies an independent web archive saved before kick-off; the line shows how they settled at archived prices.", "settled_picks": 93, "matches": 66, "match_dates": 59, "period_from": "2024-08-17", "period_to": "2026-09-12", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "final_points_hundredths": 25450, "low": { "date": "2025-08-16", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -119050, "after_picks": 65 }, "high": { "date": "2025-12-07", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 55450, "after_picks": 87 }, "line_drawn": true, "steps": [ { "date": "2024-08-17", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10000, "n": 1, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2024-08-23", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -20000, "n": 2, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2024-08-24", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -30000, "n": 3, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2024-09-13", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -18500, "n": 4, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2024-09-14", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -10500, "n": 5, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2024-09-15", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -7000, "n": 7, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2024-09-18", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -17000, "n": 8, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2024-09-20", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -27000, "n": 9, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2024-09-21", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -37000, "n": 10, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2024-09-28", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -38800, "n": 12, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2024-10-05", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -48800, "n": 13, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2024-10-23", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -78800, "n": 16, "picks": 3 }, { "date": "2024-11-08", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -71500, "n": 17, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2024-11-09", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -76500, "n": 19, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2024-11-26", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -86500, "n": 20, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2024-12-05", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -96500, "n": 21, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2024-12-10", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -89600, "n": 24, "picks": 3 }, { "date": "2024-12-12", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -99600, "n": 25, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2024-12-14", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -109600, "n": 26, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2024-12-26", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -80300, "n": 28, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2025-01-14", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -69700, "n": 29, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2025-01-16", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -79700, "n": 30, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2025-01-17", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -73200, "n": 31, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2025-01-19", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -61700, "n": 32, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2025-01-23", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -44700, "n": 34, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2025-01-24", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -54700, "n": 35, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2025-01-25", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -64700, "n": 36, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2025-01-26", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -84700, "n": 38, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2025-02-25", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -79050, "n": 39, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2025-03-08", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -89050, "n": 40, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2025-03-12", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -67050, "n": 42, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2025-03-13", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -77050, "n": 43, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2025-04-02", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -75050, "n": 45, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2025-04-03", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -48400, "n": 47, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2025-04-05", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -31900, "n": 49, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2025-04-10", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -41900, "n": 50, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2025-04-23", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -61900, "n": 52, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2025-04-26", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -59600, "n": 54, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2025-05-01", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -55250, "n": 55, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2025-05-09", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -65250, "n": 56, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2025-05-13", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -85250, "n": 58, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2025-05-18", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -95250, "n": 59, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2025-07-23", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -86550, "n": 60, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -106550, "n": 62, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2025-08-16", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -119050, "n": 65, "picks": 3 }, { "date": "2025-08-23", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -116550, "n": 67, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2025-08-24", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -38750, "n": 69, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2025-09-12", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -32350, "n": 72, "picks": 3 }, { "date": "2025-09-13", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -42350, "n": 73, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2025-10-04", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -56650, "n": 76, "picks": 3 }, { "date": "2025-10-05", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -60550, "n": 78, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2025-10-19", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -77000, "n": 81, "picks": 3 }, { "date": "2025-11-06", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -5150, "n": 84, "picks": 3 }, { "date": "2025-11-08", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -15150, "n": 85, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2025-12-07", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 55450, "n": 87, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2026-01-20", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 35450, "n": 89, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2026-03-11", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 31050, "n": 91, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2026-05-17", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 35450, "n": 92, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-09-12", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 25450, "n": 93, "picks": 1 } ] } }, "author_response": null, "cite": { "text": "Forecast Record recorded 24 settled live picks by Dan Childs before kick-off across 21 matches between 10 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −49.0% on the total staked. Of the 615 predictions we hold for Dan Childs, 492 are linked to matches: 88 were recorded by us before kick-off, 227 archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 177 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/dan-childs/", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "2.2" }, "origin": { "contract_version": "1", "predictions": 615, "under_review": 0, "no_match_linked": 123, "proven_predictions": 315, "proven_checked": 184, "proven_measured": 117, "proven_dates": 92, "parts": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.", "predictions": 88, "checked": 61, "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "series_code": "market_price", "main": { "settled_picks": 24, "void": 1, "matches": 21, "net_points_hundredths": -112800, "staked_hundredths": 230000, "return_percent": "-49.04", "interval_low": "-81.65", "interval_high": "-13.61", "interval_note": null, "period_from": "2026-10-10", "period_to": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "2.2", "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0", "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.0", "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 9 }, "same_picks": [ { "price": "Author-quoted price", "series_code": "author_price", "picks": 23, "return_main_percent": "-46.73", "return_other_percent": "-44.41", "settled_excluding_void": 22, "net_main_points_hundredths": -102800, "net_other_points_hundredths": -97700, "period_from": "2026-10-10", "period_to": "2026-11-07" }, { "price": "Closing price", "series_code": "closing_live", "picks": 9, "return_main_percent": "-55.22", "return_other_percent": "-57.53", "settled_excluding_void": 9, "net_main_points_hundredths": -49700, "net_other_points_hundredths": -51780, "period_from": "2026-10-11", "period_to": "2026-11-04" } ], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 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no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": "Racing Post, author pages", "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-0f38ac725e433ee809771698", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Jenson Metcalfe to be Booked", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-09-19T07:30:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T16:08:26.379Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-fd7f797af30588fecf61eb0b", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Jarrod Bowen: 1+ Shots on Target", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-09-19T07:30:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T16:08:26.379Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-fc6c038ef82d6bf67b3936fc", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Pays out at 4-1 with bet365", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-09-19T07:30:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T21:44:31.672Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": "Racing Post, author pages", "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-3ba7749d062f500771c1a14f", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "£10 returns ≈ £120", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-08-26T15:00:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T16:06:11.587Z", "origin": "Found after the match; 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"match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "50/1 A Goal To Be Scored In Aston Villa V West Ham", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-01-25T15:01:52.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-01T00:58:56.444Z", "origin": "Archived before kick-off", "record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-e9ec8d83266b0f3b8c349ba5", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Will Hughes to be shown a card\nHughes hasn't always been a regular for Crystal Palace but he tops their card count (seven) and may be cautioned against the Bees.", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-01-25T15:01:52.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-01T00:58:56.444Z", "origin": "Archived before kick-off", "record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-cea47bb2cd9ec9092e1daca2", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, 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"lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Lucas Bergvall to be shown a card\nThe combative Swede has been carded six times in his last ten appearances and looks a solid wager to be cautioned in Germany", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-01-22T13:07:40.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-01T00:59:55.058Z", "origin": "Archived before kick-off", "record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-6fe49013c12cc73d03ad0054", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Heung-Min Son to score any time\nSon is having an ordinary season but he was on target in last Wednesday's 2-1 loss at Arsenal and can make his mark against Hoffenheim.", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-01-22T13:07:40.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-01T00:59:55.058Z", "origin": "Archived before kick-off", "record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-4a145d95520bad5cb554d175", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Mateus Fernandes to be carded", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-01-15T13:13:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-01T01:02:09.722Z", "origin": "Archived before kick-off", "record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-bda1f65ecca494927879e9e0", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Bruno Fernandes to score any time", "group": "excluded", 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null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-01-13T15:27:07.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-01T01:02:22.330Z", "origin": "Archived before kick-off", "record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-da34b953f505106b6b6fcbe2", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Christian Norgaard to commit at least two fouls", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-01-13T12:24:06.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:17:34.489Z", "origin": "Archived before kick-off", "record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-bee4ac5181582331c0378866", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Erling Haaland to score the first goal", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-01-13T12:24:06.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:17:34.489Z", "origin": "Archived before kick-off", "record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-ec86f84813d39d47f25b6e29", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Liverpool to win", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-01-07T11:57:41.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:17:41.293Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null } ], "lead_time": { "contract_version": 1, "threshold_hours": 2.0, "picks": 335, "before_kickoff": 90, "after_kickoff": 245, "at_least_2h": 90, "share_2h_plus": 26.9, "median_hours": 25.8, "min_hours": 3.6, "max_hours": 50.8, "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off." }, "baseline": { "contract_version": 1, "series_code": "market_price", "rule": "recorded-line-1.0", "state": "settled", "picks": 7, "settled_picks_all": 24, "excluded": { "market_without_favourite": 9, "no_recorded_line": 8, "favourite_not_settled": 0 }, "staked_hundredths": 70000, "author_net_hundredths": -28700, "favourite_net_hundredths": -6200, "difference_hundredths": -22500, "author_return_percent": -41.0, "favourite_return_percent": -8.86, "author_hit_rate": 28.6, "favourite_hit_rate": 42.9, "picked_favourite_share": 85.7, "by_market": [ { "market_code": "1x2", "picks": 6, "staked_hundredths": 60000, "author_net_hundredths": -18700, "favourite_net_hundredths": 3800, "author_hits": 2, "favourite_hits": 3, "picked_favourite": 5, "author_return_percent": -31.17, "favourite_return_percent": 6.33 }, { "market_code": "handicap_asian", "picks": 1, "staked_hundredths": 10000, "author_net_hundredths": -10000, "favourite_net_hundredths": -10000, "author_hits": 0, "favourite_hits": 0, "picked_favourite": 1, "author_return_percent": -100.0, "favourite_return_percent": -100.0 } ], "return_over_time": [ { "kickoff": "2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -10000, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 12500 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 800, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 23300 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-28T19:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -9200, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 13300 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-31T15:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -19200, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 3300 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-03T19:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -29200, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -6700 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-03T19:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -18700, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 3800 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-04T17:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -28700, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -6200 } ], "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out." }, "pagination": { "per_page": 20, "total": 615, "pages": 32, "page_urls": [ "/authors/dan-childs/", "/authors/dan-childs/picks/2/", "/authors/dan-childs/picks/3/", "/authors/dan-childs/picks/4/", "/authors/dan-childs/picks/5/", "/authors/dan-childs/picks/6/", "/authors/dan-childs/picks/7/", "/authors/dan-childs/picks/8/", "/authors/dan-childs/picks/9/", "/authors/dan-childs/picks/10/", "/authors/dan-childs/picks/11/", "/authors/dan-childs/picks/12/", "/authors/dan-childs/picks/13/", "/authors/dan-childs/picks/14/", "/authors/dan-childs/picks/15/", "/authors/dan-childs/picks/16/", "/authors/dan-childs/picks/17/", "/authors/dan-childs/picks/18/", "/authors/dan-childs/picks/19/", "/authors/dan-childs/picks/20/", "/authors/dan-childs/picks/21/", "/authors/dan-childs/picks/22/", "/authors/dan-childs/picks/23/", "/authors/dan-childs/picks/24/", "/authors/dan-childs/picks/25/", "/authors/dan-childs/picks/26/", "/authors/dan-childs/picks/27/", "/authors/dan-childs/picks/28/", "/authors/dan-childs/picks/29/", "/authors/dan-childs/picks/30/", "/authors/dan-childs/picks/31/", "/authors/dan-childs/picks/32/" ], "groups": { "settled": 223, "pending": 9, "excluded": 383 }, "continuation": "by_time", "page": 1, "first": 1, "last": 20, "author_url": "/authors/dan-childs/", "current": true }, "title_tag": "Dan Childs Predictions: This Week's Picks & Verified Record", "calculator": null, "person": { "person_id": "o-c00a8da54862db8df20f105d", "type_code": "individual", "name_shown": "Dan Childs", "main_entity": "e-c00a8da54862db8df20f105d", "identity": { "status": "verified_identity", "is_verified": true, "when": "2026-10-11", "source_list": [ { "url": "https://www.racingpost.com/authors/dan-childs/", "what": "«Dan is the Racing Post's EFL tipping expert but his knowledge of the sport stretches across the UK and Europe»; рубрики: Expert EFL predictions, Bet of the Day, Football Acca" }, { "url": "https://www.livescore.com/en/news/author/daniel-childs/", "what": "Биография автора «Daniel Childs»: «A very experienced writer, Dan is the Racing Post's EFL tipping expert.»" } ] }, "platform_list": [ { "entity_ref": "e-c00a8da54862db8df20f105d", "medium": "Racing Post", "channel": "section pages", "domain": "racingpost.com", "source_info": "racing-post", "byline": "Dan Childs", "url": "/sources/racing-post/", "summary": { "statements": 1088, "predictions": 375, "settled_picks": 89, "headline_kind": "historical_simulation", "return_percent": 5.31, "headline_part": "archived", "period_from": "2026-09-28", "period_to": "2026-10-02" } }, { "entity_ref": "e-3b10a0a1eb2e2dbd0d31ad14", "medium": "LiveScore", "channel": "section pages", "domain": "livescore.com", "source_info": "livescore", "byline": "Daniel Childs", "url": null, "summary": { "statements": 49, "predictions": 11, "settled_picks": 4, "headline_kind": "historical_simulation", "return_percent": -54.5, "headline_part": "archived", "period_from": "2026-10-09", "period_to": "2026-10-17" } }, { "entity_ref": "e-d81fb1f17a36a9afb5ea2622", "medium": "Racing Post", "channel": "author pages", "domain": "racingpost.com", "source_info": "racing-post", "byline": "Dan Childs", "url": null, "summary": { "statements": 695, "predictions": 229, "settled_picks": 24, "headline_kind": "live_snapshot", "return_percent": -49.04, "headline_part": "live", "period_from": "2026-09-28", "period_to": "2026-11-07" } } ], "previously": [], "trust_tier": "established" }, "data_revision": { "data_version": "2026-11-07.2", "updated": "2026-11-07", "current_release": "2026-11-07.2", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "2.2", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "series_code": "market_price", "sample": { "settled_picks": 24, "matches": 21, "void": 1, "period_from": "2026-10-10", "period_to": "2026-11-07", "composition_hash": "6db4c3ba55f33dff07dc8470cb3dbd94cef340f24203ab7e55bf4685f7b3cf71" }, "changes_url": "#changes", "corrections_url": "/corrections/" }, "number_changes": [ { "id": "zc-000df1ebeb024f68bb32", "at": "2026-11-07T20:05:20.937Z", "data_version": "2026-11-07.2", "previous_data_version": "2026-11-07.1", "url": "/authors/dan-childs/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-11-06.2", "return_percent": "-42.53", "settled_picks": 18, "matches": 17, "void": 1, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "1d6bbf72cb0a35304b9c96c4b990d755fe56809e4217ae20332b73e7fe7d66f1", "text": "−42.53% on 18 settled picks across 17 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-11-07.2", "return_percent": "-49.04", "settled_picks": 24, "matches": 21, "void": 1, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "6db4c3ba55f33dff07dc8470cb3dbd94cef340f24203ab7e55bf4685f7b3cf71", "text": "−49.04% on 24 settled picks across 21 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 5 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture); also 1 new result.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 6, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-3df81ecc72b4577b7769", "at": "2026-11-07T00:03:19.781Z", "data_version": "2026-11-06.2", "previous_data_version": "2026-11-06.1", "url": "/authors/dan-childs/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-11-05.1", "return_percent": "-38.94", "settled_picks": 17, "matches": 16, "void": 1, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "c2a22b0af7f6739518c5f637ef9279d1108b174357db1c6485e8e4afbba9ad1e", "text": "−38.94% on 17 settled picks across 16 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-11-06.2", "return_percent": "-42.53", "settled_picks": 18, "matches": 17, "void": 1, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "1d6bbf72cb0a35304b9c96c4b990d755fe56809e4217ae20332b73e7fe7d66f1", "text": "−42.53% on 18 settled picks across 17 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-8a1ce42fa972c5d5438a", "at": "2026-11-05T05:43:48.128Z", "data_version": "2026-11-05.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-11-04.3", "url": "/authors/dan-childs/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-11-04.1", "return_percent": "-30.21", "settled_picks": 15, "matches": 15, "void": 1, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "9497647aa0a11d048c47a4166a2e0e6cf5a2531910309714aee1898f5e7d466a", "text": "−30.21% on 15 settled picks across 15 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-11-05.1", "return_percent": "-38.94", "settled_picks": 17, "matches": 16, "void": 1, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "c2a22b0af7f6739518c5f637ef9279d1108b174357db1c6485e8e4afbba9ad1e", "text": "−38.94% on 17 settled picks across 16 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 2, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-ffd3ee7fb6bc976b669c", "at": "2026-11-04T03:35:56.412Z", "data_version": "2026-11-04.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-11-03.3", "url": "/authors/dan-childs/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-31.2", "return_percent": "-35.67", "settled_picks": 13, "matches": 13, "void": 1, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "4d90a2bca2bfdef634d786b39a5ff0282d9f3d8cdccb7f8f5d602d63e3180b42", "text": "−35.67% on 13 settled picks across 13 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-11-04.1", "return_percent": "-30.21", "settled_picks": 15, "matches": 15, "void": 1, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "9497647aa0a11d048c47a4166a2e0e6cf5a2531910309714aee1898f5e7d466a", "text": "−30.21% on 15 settled picks across 15 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 2, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-a7e76e3406020383ea71", "at": "2026-10-31T21:01:38.334Z", "data_version": "2026-10-31.2", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-31.1", "url": "/authors/dan-childs/", "category": "method_changed", "category_words": "Method changed", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-22.3", "return_percent": "2.55", "settled_picks": 96, "matches": 67, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "7fe55fb9d85ff23e33fa6eb9dda4f18c01ab3d323c15dad50fef2c8e5dc5fb27", "text": "+2.55% on 96 settled picks across 67 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-31.2", "return_percent": "-35.67", "settled_picks": 13, "matches": 13, "void": 1, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "4d90a2bca2bfdef634d786b39a5ff0282d9f3d8cdccb7f8f5d602d63e3180b42", "text": "−35.67% on 13 settled picks across 13 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "The headline rule changed on 14 October 2026: the live record at our recorded market price becomes the headline number from 10 settled picks; until then the headline is the record restored from pre-match archive copies, and the live record so far is shown beside it. Was: historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (96 settled picks). Now: independent odds snapshot (13 settled picks).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 13, "removed": 96, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": "i-9b5f7def6a80c98ca321" }, { "id": "zc-39677af52b24179b37b1", "at": "2026-10-22T09:54:30.278Z", "data_version": "2026-10-22.3", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-22.2", "url": "/authors/dan-childs/", "category": "data_corrected", "category_words": "Data corrected", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-22.2", "return_percent": "3.98", "settled_picks": 113, "matches": 74, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "276c7e14924d3e1284489a07154784a83a64ea308c450576898f7ef203f9b276", "text": "+3.98% on 113 settled picks across 74 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-22.3", "return_percent": "2.55", "settled_picks": 96, "matches": 67, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "7fe55fb9d85ff23e33fa6eb9dda4f18c01ab3d323c15dad50fef2c8e5dc5fb27", "text": "+2.55% on 96 settled picks across 67 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "Data corrected: 17 picks left the headline sample.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 0, "removed": 17, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": "i-d736750609c89b4cd54c" }, { "id": "zc-3926a529237cea192c2f", "at": "2026-10-22T05:56:36.122Z", "data_version": "2026-10-22.2", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-22.1", "url": "/authors/dan-childs/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-19.6", "return_percent": "2.55", "settled_picks": 96, "matches": 67, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "7fe55fb9d85ff23e33fa6eb9dda4f18c01ab3d323c15dad50fef2c8e5dc5fb27", "text": "+2.55% on 96 settled picks across 67 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-22.2", "return_percent": "3.98", "settled_picks": 113, "matches": 74, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "276c7e14924d3e1284489a07154784a83a64ea308c450576898f7ef203f9b276", "text": "+3.98% on 113 settled picks across 74 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "Added 17 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 17, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-5245af23b799e4429f9b", "at": "2026-10-19T19:39:27.559Z", "data_version": "2026-10-19.6", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-19.5", "url": "/authors/dan-childs/", "category": "data_corrected", "category_words": "Data corrected", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-18.3", "return_percent": "1.20", "settled_picks": 114, "matches": 77, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "06d45a6873ef2514906f40c8add06bc83ccbc4db34dd33f05c84a7f85114d6f7", "text": "+1.20% on 114 settled picks across 77 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-19.6", "return_percent": "2.55", "settled_picks": 96, "matches": 67, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "7fe55fb9d85ff23e33fa6eb9dda4f18c01ab3d323c15dad50fef2c8e5dc5fb27", "text": "+2.55% on 96 settled picks across 67 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "Data corrected: 19 picks left the headline sample; 1 pick added.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 19, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": "i-face495a136f43f681e7" }, { "id": "zc-9192a9e928bbae8108a6", "at": "2026-10-18T04:18:28.335Z", "data_version": "2026-10-18.3", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-18.2", "url": "/authors/dan-childs/", "category": "data_corrected", "category_words": "Data corrected", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-18.2", "return_percent": "2.96", "settled_picks": 120, "matches": 80, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "38d5f55578a9e64a2a595bae8eba0649c586a98aba7f632e51c3a4d0dfd1c298", "text": "+2.96% on 120 settled picks across 80 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-18.3", "return_percent": "1.20", "settled_picks": 114, "matches": 77, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "06d45a6873ef2514906f40c8add06bc83ccbc4db34dd33f05c84a7f85114d6f7", "text": "+1.20% on 114 settled picks across 77 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "Data corrected: 4 picks left the headline sample.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 0, "removed": 4, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": "i-3c5da35a19ee3ba03af5" }, { "id": "zc-f64892fbbc116dff645d", "at": "2026-10-18T03:29:01.089Z", "data_version": "2026-10-18.2", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-18.1", "url": "/authors/dan-childs/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-16.5", "return_percent": "1.20", "settled_picks": 114, "matches": 77, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "06d45a6873ef2514906f40c8add06bc83ccbc4db34dd33f05c84a7f85114d6f7", "text": "+1.20% on 114 settled picks across 77 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-18.2", "return_percent": "2.96", "settled_picks": 120, "matches": 80, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "38d5f55578a9e64a2a595bae8eba0649c586a98aba7f632e51c3a4d0dfd1c298", "text": "+2.96% on 120 settled picks across 80 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "Added 4 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 4, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-148922eee68581ff2566", "at": "2026-10-16T17:26:36.835Z", "data_version": "2026-10-16.5", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-16.4", "url": "/authors/dan-childs/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-16.3", "return_percent": "-1.67", "settled_picks": 110, "matches": 75, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "4aa60080e3143573920d57dfa0bd7374cf59be9e32eca7399236604481113f84", "text": "−1.67% on 110 settled picks across 75 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-16.5", "return_percent": "1.20", "settled_picks": 114, "matches": 77, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "06d45a6873ef2514906f40c8add06bc83ccbc4db34dd33f05c84a7f85114d6f7", "text": "+1.20% on 114 settled picks across 77 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "Added 4 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 4, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-8c938b513670be7035fa", "at": "2026-10-16T12:26:54.015Z", "data_version": "2026-10-16.3", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-16.2", "url": "/authors/dan-childs/", "category": "data_corrected", "category_words": "Data corrected", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-15.5", "return_percent": "-1.39", "settled_picks": 114, "matches": 77, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "6baf524ff1bab04ac75cee0e487123dac72767b172613a34f8b83c5b27924138", "text": "−1.39% on 114 settled picks across 77 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-16.3", "return_percent": "-1.67", "settled_picks": 110, "matches": 75, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "4aa60080e3143573920d57dfa0bd7374cf59be9e32eca7399236604481113f84", "text": "−1.67% on 110 settled picks across 75 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "Data corrected: 4 picks left the headline sample.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 0, "removed": 4, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": "i-d9cf74c6fbd027f03845" }, { "id": "zc-a25785aa54b396bedd2b", "at": "2026-10-15T18:43:19.205Z", "data_version": "2026-10-15.5", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-15.4", "url": "/authors/dan-childs/", "category": "data_corrected", "category_words": "Data corrected", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-14.3", "return_percent": "-2.90", "settled_picks": 117, "matches": 77, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "f6904b10961a2b32f95bb8aee2dd3752e8506fa6a1ab12ccf1265a30b962e638", "text": "−2.90% on 117 settled picks across 77 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-15.5", "return_percent": "-1.39", "settled_picks": 114, "matches": 77, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "6baf524ff1bab04ac75cee0e487123dac72767b172613a34f8b83c5b27924138", "text": "−1.39% on 114 settled picks across 77 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "Data corrected: 3 picks left the headline sample.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 0, "removed": 3, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": "i-05f4f438834ade20892e" }, { "id": "zc-48440ca3949b12042437", "at": "2026-10-14T22:11:18.139Z", "data_version": "2026-10-14.3", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-14.2", "url": "/authors/dan-childs/", "category": "method_changed", "category_words": "Method changed", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-13.3", "return_percent": "-100.00", "settled_picks": 1, "matches": 1, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "0b082d9ba6150aa193f6428506f9b2f5ba0720e469382417d1f4d27175d58503", "text": "−100.00 points on 1 settled pick across 1 match · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-14.3", "return_percent": "-2.90", "settled_picks": 117, "matches": 77, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "f6904b10961a2b32f95bb8aee2dd3752e8506fa6a1ab12ccf1265a30b962e638", "text": "−2.90% on 117 settled picks across 77 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "The headline rule changed on 14 October 2026: the live record at our recorded market price becomes the headline number from 10 settled picks; until then the headline is the record restored from pre-match archive copies, and the live record so far is shown beside it. Was: independent odds snapshot (1 settled pick). Now: historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (117 settled picks).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 117, "removed": 1, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": "i-910bb57bf28ccabe22ec" }, { "id": "zc-fc5a57e15c6542bd428d", "at": "2026-10-13T14:04:45.283Z", "data_version": "2026-10-13.3", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-13.2", "url": "/authors/dan-childs/", "category": "method_changed", "category_words": "Method changed", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-09.2", "return_percent": "-0.19", "settled_picks": 112, "matches": 73, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "2ae3a934c1382c754fe42e1841d6d70b79c41f7cc2368fb7c390066f0f15d703", "text": "−0.19% on 112 settled picks across 73 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-13.3", "return_percent": "-100.00", "settled_picks": 1, "matches": 1, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "0b082d9ba6150aa193f6428506f9b2f5ba0720e469382417d1f4d27175d58503", "text": "−100.00 points on 1 settled pick across 1 match · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "The headline number is now calculated in a different series: “independent odds snapshot” (1 settled pick) instead of “historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only” (112 settled picks). The series is chosen by the published rule; the earlier figure is kept here.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 112, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": "i-9cf9195bdf8663380682" }, { "id": "zc-029d8c1506652e9d28e6", "at": "2026-10-09T12:49:36.723Z", "data_version": "2026-10-09.2", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-09.1", "url": "/authors/dan-childs/", "category": "method_changed", "category_words": "Method changed", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-09.1", "return_percent": "-0.83", "settled_picks": 148, "matches": 98, "void": 3, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "price_rule": "second data provider's closing price, restored", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "d4e414564b5e25460ed3245e801e95a0809115f253a79bd2007e9760e7e5f128", "text": "−0.83% on 148 settled picks across 98 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · method retro-1.1" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-09.2", "return_percent": "-0.19", "settled_picks": 112, "matches": 73, "void": 0, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived", "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "2ae3a934c1382c754fe42e1841d6d70b79c41f7cc2368fb7c390066f0f15d703", "text": "−0.19% on 112 settled picks across 73 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "The headline rule changed on 9 October 2026: the headline is the live record at our recorded market price; without one, a historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only. Picks first found after the match no longer enter the headline number. Was: second data provider's closing price, restored (148 settled picks). Now: historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (112 settled picks).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 13, "removed": 49, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": "i-a64ff10b50808dc98133" }, { "id": "zc-e43eeee8d93a76a59931", "at": "2026-10-09T11:08:54.367Z", "data_version": "2026-10-09.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-09-30.1", "url": "/authors/dan-childs/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-09-30.1", "return_percent": "-4.88", "settled_picks": 62, "matches": 36, "void": 2, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "price_rule": "second data provider's closing price, restored", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "1e47c5218644edadef3bc191410899e536d17eb539206c52cb0ed91188c9fd02", "text": "−4.88% on 62 settled picks across 36 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · method retro-1.1" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-09.1", "return_percent": "-0.83", "settled_picks": 148, "matches": 98, "void": 3, "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "price_rule": "second data provider's closing price, restored", "method_version": "retro-1.1", "composition_hash": "d4e414564b5e25460ed3245e801e95a0809115f253a79bd2007e9760e7e5f128", "text": "−0.83% on 148 settled picks across 98 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · method retro-1.1" }, "reason": "Added 86 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 86, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null } ], "current_predictions": { "total_count": 2, "on_date": "2026-11-07T19:52", "row_list": [ { "record_id": "n-bd3da6d5b16cd044e16eac81", "url": "/authors/dan-childs/picks/32/#pick-n-bd3da6d5b16cd044e16eac81", "match": "Crystal Palace v Liverpool", "match_url": "/football/matches/crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-2026-11-08/", "kickoff": "2026-11-08T14:00:00.000Z", "competition": "Premier League", "author_said": "Both teams to score: yes", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "recorded_at": "2026-11-07T14:06:32.297Z", "platform": "Racing Post, author pages" }, { "record_id": "n-9d26f2a32569968768f6dfbf", "url": "/authors/dan-childs/picks/32/#pick-n-9d26f2a32569968768f6dfbf", "match": "Crystal Palace v Liverpool", "match_url": "/football/matches/crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-2026-11-08/", "kickoff": "2026-11-08T14:00:00.000Z", "competition": "Premier League", "author_said": "Player to score: Alexander Isak to score at 2.2", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "recorded_at": "2026-11-06T18:34:24.478Z", "platform": "Racing Post, author pages" } ] }, "author_card": { "body": "Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 615 predictions · last change 7 November 2026", "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/dan-childs/", "s": "2026-09-28", "prediction_count": 615, "refreshed_at": "2026-11-07", "html": "Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 615 predictions · last change 7 November 2026" }, "trust": { "tier": "established", "in_words": "Established", "settled_count": 184, "days": 813, "weeks": 44, "archive": false, "in_review": false, "own_page": true, "won_count": 73, "first_settled_on": "2024-08-17", "products_in_level": 1, "rule": { "tracked": { "min_settled": 30, "min_days": 30, "min_distinct_weeks": 2, "no_violations": true }, "established": { "min_settled": 100, "min_days": 90 } }, "show": true }, "colleagues": [ { "source_code": "racing-post", "source_name": "Racing Post", "source_url": "/sources/racing-post/", "label": "Also at Racing Post", "authors_total": 15, "authors": [ { "name": "James Milton", "url": "/authors/james-milton/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 124, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Liam Flin", "url": "/authors/liam-flin/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 58, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Jack Ogalbe", "url": "/authors/jack-ogalbe/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 44, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Ian Wilkerson", "url": "/authors/ian-wilkerson/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 37, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Joe Casey", "url": "/authors/joe-casey/", "headline_part": "live", "settled_picks": 19, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Aaron Ashley", "url": "/authors/aaron-ashley/", "headline_part": "live", "settled_picks": 15, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "James Mason", "url": "/authors/james-mason/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 14, "return_percent": "16.1", "small_sample": false, "average_odds": "4.00", "odds_from_author": 10, "odds_from_snapshot": 4 }, { "name": "Steve Davies", "url": "/authors/steve-davies/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 14, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Jamie Griffith", "url": "/authors/jamie-griffith/", "headline_part": "live", "settled_picks": 12, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Tom Hill", "url": "/authors/tom-hill/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 11, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Tom McGarry", "url": "/authors/tom-mcgarry/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 11, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Alex Wrigley", "url": "/authors/alex-wrigley/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 7, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null } ] } ], "author_type": "Pundit", "data_changes": { "added_later": "72 records added on 28 Sep 2026 found after the match; 65 records added on 1 Oct 2026 from archived copies; 53 records added on 1 Oct 2026 found after the match; 138 more records added on other dates. The current numbers include them; numbers published earlier, including the record before each match, do not change.", "records_corrected": 10, "last_correction_at": "2026-10-31T21:01:38.334Z", "corrections_url": "/corrections/", "text": "10 records shown here have been corrected; the last correction was on 31 October 2026, with its reason in the corrections log." }, "entity_id": "person:o-c00a8da54862db8df20f105d", "source_revision": 207, "related": [ { "url": "/cards/e-c00a8da54862db8df20f105d-bank/", "name": "Bankroll card — Dan Childs", "detail": null, "source_group": "cards" }, { "url": "/cards/e-c00a8da54862db8df20f105d-said-vs-happened/", "name": "Said → happened — Dan Childs", "detail": null, "source_group": "cards" }, { "url": "/for-authors/dan-childs/", "name": "Your record on Forecast Record: Dan Childs", "detail": null, "source_group": "for_authors" } ], "number_sets": [ { "set": "profile.settled", "entity": "e-c00a8da54862db8df20f105d", "value": 223, "where": "coverage", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.predictions", "entity": "e-c00a8da54862db8df20f105d", "value": 615, "where": "coverage", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.predictions", "entity": "e-c00a8da54862db8df20f105d", "value": 615, "where": "picks", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.part.live", "entity": "e-c00a8da54862db8df20f105d", "value": 24, "where": "origin", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.part.archived", "entity": "e-c00a8da54862db8df20f105d", "value": 93, "where": "origin-archived", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.part.found_after", "entity": "e-c00a8da54862db8df20f105d", "value": 58, "where": null, "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.checked.live", "entity": "e-c00a8da54862db8df20f105d", "value": 61, "where": "origin", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.checked.archived", "entity": "e-c00a8da54862db8df20f105d", "value": 123, "where": "origin-archived", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z" }, { "set": "profile.window", "entity": "e-c00a8da54862db8df20f105d", "value": 24, "where": "calculation", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "label": true }, { "set": "profile.checked", "entity": "e-c00a8da54862db8df20f105d", "value": 184, "where": "trust-level", "as_of": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "label": true } ] }