{ "schema_name": "page", "schema_version": "2.0", "page_type": "author", "url": "/authors/christophe-paillet/", "canonical": "/authors/christophe-paillet/", "language": "en", "hreflang": [], "translations": [], "heading": "Christophe Paillet: Football Prediction Record", "description": "Verified record: 14 settled picks by Christophe Paillet recorded before kick-off across 11 matches, 23 Oct 2026 – 5 Nov 2026.", "first_paragraph": { "body": "Forecast Record recorded 14 settled live picks by Christophe Paillet before kick-off across 11 matches between 23 October and 5 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −0.8% on the total staked. Of the 80 predictions we hold for Christophe Paillet, 43 are linked to matches: 23 were recorded by us before kick-off and 20 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "key_number": "−0.8%", "data": "2026-11-07", "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot", "brand": "Forecast Record" }, "indexable": false, "noindex_reason": "outside_core", "indexing_threshold": { "settled_count": 14, "date_count": 4, "required_settled": 10, "required_dates": 2 }, "data_date": "2026-11-07T17:54:06.889Z", "built_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "lastmod": "2026-11-08T02:12:33.000Z", "content_hash": null, "meaning_hash": "6cfb67ccad06d142ec6333b88970684ac6a0ab46d7e5c126de7406d4d999fd6d", "dependency_group": "author:e-3fdd50de4865e55179f17052", "release_id": "20261107-195223", "markup": [ { "type_code": "WebPage", "allowed": true, "cause": null }, { "type_code": "Organization", "allowed": true, "cause": null }, { "type_code": "Person", "allowed": true, "cause": null } ], "exports": [ { "type_code": "json", "url": "/authors/christophe-paillet/index.json", "bytes": null }, { "type_code": "csv", "url": "/authors/christophe-paillet/picks.csv", "bytes": null } ], "modules": { "affiliate": true, "api": true, "compare_yourself": false }, "affiliate_block": { "container": true, "request_url": "/partnery/moi", "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.", "page_category": "author" }, "restrictions": { "name_withdrawn": false, "tracker_number": null, "withdrawn_quotes": [], "removed_at": null, "cause": null, "suspended_records": [], "withdrawal_log_number": 0 }, "page_links": { "methodology": "/methodology/", "right_of_reply": "/right-of-reply/", "source_coverage": "/coverage/", "corrections_log": "/corrections/", "api": "/api/", "claim": "/claim/" }, "entity": { "id": "e-3fdd50de4865e55179f17052", "public_name": "Christophe Paillet", "tracker_number": 3876, "status": "active", "inactive_since": null, "verified_creator": false, "observation_period": { "since": "2026-10-13", "until": "2026-11-05" }, "platform_list": [ { "medium": "website", "handle": null, "url": null, "link_confirmed": false, "show": true } ], "comment": null }, "headline_number": { "metric": { "metric_id": "p-e-3fdd50de4865e55179f17052-roi-market-price-90d-z99", "code_name": "roi_market_price", "display_name": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot", "window_kind": "90d", "window_from": "2026-08-09", "window_to": "2026-11-07", "amount": "-0.7986", "unit": "percent", "data_status": "calculated", "cause": null, "n_bets": 14, "n_events": 11, "n_void": 0, "ci_low": "-51.3707", "ci_high": "47.0553", "ci_method": "cluster_bootstrap", "price_source": "market_price", "coverage_percent": "100.00", "breakdown": [], "methodology_version": "2.2", "data_date": "2026-11-07T17:54:06.889Z", "enough_for_ranking": false, "series_uid": null, "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot" }, "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 14 settled picks across 11 matches", "average_odds": "1.64", "odds_from_author": 14, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 }, "metrics": [], "history": [], "simulation": { "series_uid": "sr-452c122c95b7c9efe013335c", "bankroll_hundredths": 998882, "reserve_hundredths": 10000, "issued_total_hundredths": 1000000, "top_up_count": 0, "profit_hundredths": -1118, "rewards_off": null, "initial_hundredths": 1000000, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "data_points": [ { "at": "2026-10-24T09:34:13.605Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 1006250, "profit_hundredths": 6250, "outcome_id": "ish-939966e6766b7556c611232b" }, { "at": "2026-10-24T09:39:29.545Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 996250, "profit_hundredths": -3750, "outcome_id": "ish-f3cae093dd40a8c72f4b7072" }, { "at": "2026-10-24T09:39:29.581Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 1010250, "profit_hundredths": 10250, "outcome_id": "ish-45a43171a2ba3e4430e33abe" }, { "at": "2026-10-29T20:19:44.685Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 1014950, "profit_hundredths": 14950, "outcome_id": "ish-e87101a2a2e33d7f2353595d" }, { "at": "2026-10-29T20:27:50.905Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 1004950, "profit_hundredths": 4950, "outcome_id": "ish-ec6b50c388c6af5a04b70b2b" }, { "at": "2026-10-30T02:46:55.679Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 1008781, "profit_hundredths": 8781, "outcome_id": "ish-2b339a58a77de72cd9c75576" }, { "at": "2026-10-30T21:16:08.210Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 998781, "profit_hundredths": -1219, "outcome_id": "ish-9e81fe119cdb7b60c2de970a" }, { "at": "2026-10-30T22:10:39.717Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 1002731, "profit_hundredths": 2731, "outcome_id": "ish-ea10dc1b1cf68fff73f7a580" }, { "at": "2026-11-05T20:22:55.718Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 992731, "profit_hundredths": -7269, "outcome_id": "ish-df7b98ff3c6ec9ee8f7ec69a" }, { "at": "2026-11-05T22:10:22.587Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 996731, "profit_hundredths": -3269, "outcome_id": "ish-d453b1da82581180b33a857d" }, { "at": "2026-11-05T22:54:02.817Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 986731, "profit_hundredths": -13269, "outcome_id": "ish-18b46d5302d75f0b595616a2" }, { "at": "2026-11-05T22:54:02.837Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 976731, "profit_hundredths": -23269, "outcome_id": "ish-59e7cb9ad8797b0598c9c497" }, { "at": "2026-11-07T11:04:35.724Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 981382, "profit_hundredths": -18618, "outcome_id": "ish-7c5e23bc4da902fdf464c6ea" }, { "at": "2026-11-07T11:04:35.890Z", "bankroll_hundredths": 998882, "profit_hundredths": -1118, "outcome_id": "ish-22e285ec7e9bf62f24a320d8" } ], "top_ups": [], "rule": "When the balance falls below 100 points and no bets are open, 10000 points are added; the remaining balance is kept. While bets are open we wait for settlement.", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot" }, "simulations": [], "completeness": { "detected": 112, "recognised": 80, "accepted": 23, "executed": 15, "calculated": 14, "gaps": [ { "cause": "not_supported", "figure": 40 }, { "cause": "read after the match, from archived pages", "figure": 17 }, { "cause": "not_checked", "figure": 4 }, { "cause": "disputed_reading", "figure": 4 } ] }, "record_counts": { "dictionary_version": "1", "statements": 112, "of_them_restored": 26, "not_predictions": { "opinions": 4, "not_about_a_match": 28, "unclassified": 0 }, "predictions": 80, "predictions_restored": 20, "matches": 17, "admitted": 23, "qualifying_picks": 15, "qualifying_picks_restored": 0, "settled_picks": 14, "settled_picks_restored": 0, "series_list": [ { "code_name": "market_price", "derived": false, "is_restored": false, "qualifying_picks": 15, "settled_picks": 14, "void": 0, "pending_picks": 1, "matches": 11, "operations_settled": 14, "stakes_hundredths": [ 10000 ], "methodologies": [ "2.2" ], "display_name": "At an independent odds snapshot" }, { "code_name": "author_price", "derived": false, "is_restored": false, "qualifying_picks": 15, "settled_picks": 14, "void": 0, "pending_picks": 1, "matches": 11, "operations_settled": 14, "stakes_hundredths": [ 10000 ], "methodologies": [ "2.2" ], "display_name": "At the author's stated price" } ], "gaps": [ { "code_name": "not_supported", "cause": "not_supported", "figure": 40 }, { "code_name": "after_match", "cause": "read after the match, from archived pages", "figure": 17 }, { "code_name": "not_checked", "cause": "not_checked", "figure": 4 }, { "code_name": "disputed_reading", "cause": "disputed_reading", "figure": 4 } ], "duplicates": 2, "junk": {}, "dictionary_url": "/methodology/#words" }, "evidence_items": [ { "observation_id": "n-dd44e51231ad6ca8781f2ce0", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-dd44e51231ad6ca8781f2ce0", "quote_text": "Cote totale des six paris du jour : 68.24", "fragment_from": 1907, "fragment_to": 1948, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://rmcsport.bfmtv.com/pari-sportif/pronos-paris-rmc-les-paris-sur-real-sociedad-lyon-du-5-novembre-ligue-europa_AN-202611050447.html", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Christophe Paillet", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "8b6250e968407c0f5bca20352e67ddd638d482175c0ee190e395d2bf5e5ae13b", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-11-05T11:50:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-05T11:59:56.139Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, 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"n-748f8e863f3f19db664c2b54", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-748f8e863f3f19db664c2b54", "quote_text": "Lyon a dû gérer le départ précipité de Fonseca en direction Sporting Club du Portugal", "fragment_from": 508, "fragment_to": 593, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://rmcsport.bfmtv.com/pari-sportif/pronos-paris-rmc-les-paris-sur-real-sociedad-lyon-du-5-novembre-ligue-europa_AN-202611050447.html", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Christophe Paillet", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "8b6250e968407c0f5bca20352e67ddd638d482175c0ee190e395d2bf5e5ae13b", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-11-05T11:50:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-05T11:59:56.139Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, 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"settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-23d215dd4a750d7f2793d0ab", "url": "/authors/christophe-paillet/picks/5/#pick-n-23d215dd4a750d7f2793d0ab", "quote_text": "Monaco bat Nordsjaelland sans prendre de but (2.45)", "fragment_from": 1854, "fragment_to": 1905, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://rmcsport.bfmtv.com/pari-sportif/pronos-paris-rmc-les-paris-sur-real-sociedad-lyon-du-5-novembre-ligue-europa_AN-202611050447.html", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Christophe Paillet", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "8b6250e968407c0f5bca20352e67ddd638d482175c0ee190e395d2bf5e5ae13b", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-11-05T11:50:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-05T11:59:56.139Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "priced", "status": "recognised", "cause": "", "cause_code": "disputed_reading", "event": { 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null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Match result and both teams to score", "choice": "Monaco win, both teams to score: no", "author_odds": "2.45", "market_key": "both_teams_score_and_result", "choice_key": "1-no", "period": "match", "line": null, "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Match result and both teams to score: Monaco win, both teams to score: no at 2.45" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "win", "scoreline": "2-0", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Won: the final score was Monaco 2-0 Nordsjælland." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "b9219d6837788690ffe5e5461dd7dc8e8b5a2f3b59a7a4b0c1000034655534e4", "series_key": "author_price", "series_label": "At the author's stated price", "derived": false, 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"methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": { "material_author": "Christophe Paillet", "publisher": "Les Paris RMC (RMC Sport)", "forecaster": "Christophe Paillet", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://rmcsport.bfmtv.com/pari-sportif/pronos-paris-rmc-les-paris-sur-real-sociedad-lyon-du-5-novembre-ligue-europa_AN-202611050447.html", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-d8bf2bbe8affd717d4148cf6", "url": "/authors/christophe-paillet/picks/5/#pick-n-d8bf2bbe8affd717d4148cf6", "quote_text": "Le Celta bat l’Union Saint-Gilloise (2.10)", "fragment_from": 1757, "fragment_to": 1799, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://rmcsport.bfmtv.com/pari-sportif/pronos-paris-rmc-les-paris-sur-real-sociedad-lyon-du-5-novembre-ligue-europa_AN-202611050447.html", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Christophe Paillet", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "8b6250e968407c0f5bca20352e67ddd638d482175c0ee190e395d2bf5e5ae13b", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-11-05T11:50:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-05T11:59:56.139Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "priced", "status": "not_supported", "cause": "", "cause_code": "not_supported", "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-11-05T11:50:00.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-11-05T11:50:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-05T11:59:56.139Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-4dfa67c5ab2abfe85b1e8c98", "url": 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"display_name": null, "speaker": "Christophe Paillet", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "5b4b11e6cec14c99ed4cde75ccaa368a3e789545f76509ea18cb43901b8bbfc1", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-23T13:25:38.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-23T13:29:47.559Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-23T13:25:38.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-10-23T13:25:38.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-23T13:29:47.559Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-15b92e57fdc09e446f81b497", "url": "/authors/christophe-paillet/picks/3/#pick-n-15b92e57fdc09e446f81b497", "quote_text": "My Match : Brest ne perd pas, moins de 4,5 buts dans le match et Ajorque buteur (3.80)", "fragment_from": 1255, "fragment_to": 1341, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://rmcsport.bfmtv.com/pari-sportif/pronos-paris-rmc-les-paris-sur-brest-nice-du-23-octobre-ligue-1_AN-202610230578.html", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Christophe Paillet", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "5b4b11e6cec14c99ed4cde75ccaa368a3e789545f76509ea18cb43901b8bbfc1", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-23T13:25:38.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-23T13:29:47.559Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "priced", "status": "not_supported", "cause": "", "cause_code": "not_supported", "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-23T13:25:38.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-10-23T13:25:38.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-23T13:29:47.559Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-abf40d7d1676212067bee5bc", "url": "/authors/christophe-paillet/picks/3/#pick-n-abf40d7d1676212067bee5bc", "quote_text": "Pari de folie : Brest bat Nice sans encaisser de but (3.95)", "fragment_from": 1161, "fragment_to": 1220, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://rmcsport.bfmtv.com/pari-sportif/pronos-paris-rmc-les-paris-sur-brest-nice-du-23-octobre-ligue-1_AN-202610230578.html", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Christophe Paillet", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "5b4b11e6cec14c99ed4cde75ccaa368a3e789545f76509ea18cb43901b8bbfc1", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-23T13:25:38.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-23T13:29:47.559Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "priced", "status": "not_supported", "cause": "", "cause_code": "not_supported", "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-23T13:25:38.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-10-23T13:25:38.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-23T13:29:47.559Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-8c871adc00a50d03a1d68a51", "url": "/authors/christophe-paillet/picks/3/#pick-n-8c871adc00a50d03a1d68a51", "quote_text": "Notre pronostic : Brest bat Nice (2.15)", "fragment_from": 212, "fragment_to": 251, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://rmcsport.bfmtv.com/pari-sportif/pronos-paris-rmc-les-paris-sur-brest-nice-du-23-octobre-ligue-1_AN-202610230578.html", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Christophe Paillet", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "5b4b11e6cec14c99ed4cde75ccaa368a3e789545f76509ea18cb43901b8bbfc1", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-23T13:25:38.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-23T13:29:47.559Z", "executed_at": "2026-10-24T09:34:12.292Z", "statement_class": "priced", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": "s-1327a569d107", "display_name": "Stade Brestois — Nice", "competition_name": "Ligue 1", "starts_at": "2026-10-23T18:45:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/stade-brestois-vs-nice-2026-10-23/", "scoreline": "1-2", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "outcome_label": "Stade Brestois", "odds_set": { "by_author": "2.15", "our_snapshot": "2.2100", "our_snapshot_at": "2026-10-23T13:29:45.711Z", "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot", "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "loss", "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": "ours", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-23T13:25:38.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-10-23T13:25:38.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-23T13:29:47.559Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "1X2, match result", "choice": "Stade Brestois", "author_odds": "2.15", "market_key": "1x2", "choice_key": "1", "period": "match", "line": null, "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "1X2, match result: Stade Brestois at 2.15" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "loss", "scoreline": "1-2", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Stade Brestois 1-2 Nice." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "3ed41afcdf16b7da4989f1172a60abd56a6d2edb7bd4676d3c790b8ff4bae52c", "series_key": "author_price", "series_label": "At the author's stated price", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "choice": "Stade Brestois", "decimal_odds": "2.15", "odds_role": "author_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "loss", "result_words": "Lost", "change_hundredths": -10000, "executed_at": "2026-10-24T09:34:11.113Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false }, { "operation_id": "a9d92e470b296d6a5ebbcc13fe4cdc73cbd901c3c14aab1e0515f779ccdc8c74", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "choice": "Stade Brestois", "decimal_odds": "2.2100", "odds_role": "market_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "loss", "result_words": "Lost", "change_hundredths": -10000, "executed_at": "2026-10-24T09:34:12.292Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "settled_pick", "authorship": { "material_author": "Christophe Paillet", "publisher": "Les Paris RMC (RMC Sport)", "forecaster": "Christophe Paillet", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://rmcsport.bfmtv.com/pari-sportif/pronos-paris-rmc-les-paris-sur-brest-nice-du-23-octobre-ligue-1_AN-202610230578.html", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null } ], "standing": { "titles": [ { "code_name": "E-07", "display_name": "Draw at 3.55 · USL Dunkerque v Metz · 23 Oct 2026", "received_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "window_kind": "event", "cause": null, "type_code": null, "bucket_code": "all", "bucket": "Long-price call", "measure": null, "place": null, "out_of": null, "n_bets": 1, "n_events": null, "amount": null, "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "ci_level": null, "fact": "Draw at 3.55 · USL Dunkerque v Metz · 23 Oct 2026", "rationale": "Draw called correctly at 3.55 (our pre-match price). 7 other tipsters and sources on this match, 2 right (5 named away win, 2 named draw). Data: live record. Term: a dated fact.", "provenance": "live", "rules_version": "catalog-1", "methodology_version": "catalog-1", "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "valid_until": null, "anchor_id": "standing-e-07-all-event", "alt": "Christophe Paillet · Draw at 3.55 · USL Dunkerque v Metz · 23 Oct 2026 · Tracked by Forecast Record", "csv_url": null, "embed": "\"Christophe", "neighbours": [], "window_words": "On show until 21 Jan 2027", "measure_words": null, "amount_words": null, "interval_words": null, "title_tier": "dated_record", "status": "active", "status_reason": null, "event_at": "2026-10-23", "evidence_through": "2026-10-23", "earned_at": "2026-10-23", "published_at": "2026-10-30", "visible_until": "2027-01-21", "badge_label": "Correct at 3.55 · 23 Oct", "scope_words": null, "title_id": "zk-1d1e9de2064bafc06fc0", "evidence_items": [ { "nid": "n-8343b7c68e531f0f49cbcdf8", "data": "2026-10-23", "match": "USL Dunkerque v Metz", "said_text": "1X2, match result: draw at 3.5", "outcome_label": "right", "evidence_price": 3.55, "comparison": "7 other tipsters and sources on this match, 2 right (5 named away win, 2 named draw)", "url": "/authors/christophe-paillet/picks/3/#pick-n-8343b7c68e531f0f49cbcdf8" } ], "evidence_total": 1, "badge": { "variants": [ { "size": "l", "theme": "light", "width": 1113, "height": 40, "url": "/b/e-3fdd50de4865e55179f17052/e-07-all-event-l-light.svg" }, { "size": "l", "theme": "dark", "width": 1113, "height": 40, "url": "/b/e-3fdd50de4865e55179f17052/e-07-all-event-l-dark.svg" }, { "size": "m", "theme": "light", "width": 819, "height": 28, "url": "/b/e-3fdd50de4865e55179f17052/e-07-all-event-m-light.svg" }, { "size": "m", "theme": "dark", "width": 819, "height": 28, "url": "/b/e-3fdd50de4865e55179f17052/e-07-all-event-m-dark.svg" }, { "size": "s", "theme": "light", "width": 639, "height": 20, "url": "/b/e-3fdd50de4865e55179f17052/e-07-all-event-s-light.svg" }, { "size": "s", "theme": "dark", "width": 639, "height": 20, "url": "/b/e-3fdd50de4865e55179f17052/e-07-all-event-s-dark.svg" } ], "card_url": "/b/e-3fdd50de4865e55179f17052/e-07-all-event-card.svg" }, "profile_anchor": "title-1d1e9de2064b", "chance": { "contract_version": 1, "kind": "single", "priced": 1, "unpriced": 0, "hits": 1, "probability": 0.28169, "one_in": 4, "log10": -0.55, "words": "1 in 4", "rule": "market probability (1/price) of this one pick", "note": "market prices include the bookmaker margin, so the chance is slightly overstated — a cautious figure" }, "embed_anchor": "title-long-price-call" } ], "publication_mode": "top20", "empty_reason": null, "rules_version": "catalog-1", "insufficient": [], "badges_on_page": 0, "header_titles": [ { "title_id": "zk-1d1e9de2064bafc06fc0", "code_name": "E-07", "title_tier": "dated_record", "badge_label": "Correct at 3.55 · 23 Oct", "body": "Draw at 3.55 · USL Dunkerque v Metz · 23 Oct 2026", "tier": null, "provenance": "live", "anchor_id": "title-1d1e9de2064b", "event_at": "2026-10-23", "url": "/titles/e-07-long-price-call/#zk-1d1e9de2064bafc06fc0" } ], "record_origin": [], "recent_record": [ { "code_name": "E-07", "body": "Draw at 3.55 · USL Dunkerque v Metz · 23 Oct 2026", "event_at": "2026-10-23", "url": null, "provenance": "live", "anchor_id": "title-1d1e9de2064b" } ], "record_details": [], "history": [] }, "retro": null, "late": null, "price_vs_market": { "contract_version": "1", "threshold_percent": "5", "rows": [ { "basis": "snapshot", "basis_words": "our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off)", "basis_short": "Our market price when we first recorded the pick", "compared": 15, "above": 2, "above_share_percent": "13.3", "below": 4, "within": 9, "median_difference_percent": "-2.8", "not_comparable": 0, "disputed": 0, "status": "calculated" } ], "examples": [ { "url": "/authors/christophe-paillet/picks/4/#pick-n-2a52418701abab26a0e3584e", "basis": "snapshot", "stated": "1.54", "market": "2.75", "difference_percent": "-44.0" }, { "url": "/authors/christophe-paillet/picks/3/#pick-n-83153a3fd88dc33329b55256", "basis": "snapshot", "stated": "2.65", "market": "2.40", "difference_percent": "10.4" } ], "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way." }, "record_summary": { "contract_version": "1", "entity_type": "person", "entity_words": "Individual author", "source": { "name": "rmcsport.bfmtv.com", "url": "https://rmcsport.bfmtv.com/pari-sportif/pronos-paris-rmc-les-paris-sur-real-sociedad-lyon-du-5-novembre-ligue-europa_AN-202611050447.html" }, "observed_from": "2026-10-13", "observed_to": "2026-11-05", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "state": "settled", "series_code": "market_price", "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price", "restored": false, "headline_kind": "live_snapshot", "headline_part": "live", "settled_picks": 14, "matches": 11, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -1118, "staked_hundredths": 140000, "return_percent": "-0.80", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "period_from": "2026-10-23", "period_to": "2026-11-05", "status": "calculated", "method_version": "2.2", "short_history": true, "reason": null, "reasons": [], "sentence": "Forecast Record recorded 14 settled live picks by Christophe Paillet before kick-off across 11 matches between 23 October and 5 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −0.8% on the total staked. Of the 80 predictions we hold for Christophe Paillet, 43 are linked to matches: 23 were recorded by us before kick-off and 20 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "numbers": [ { "label": "Settled live picks", "value": "14", "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick", "note": null }, { "label": "Matches", "value": "11", "anchor": "/methodology/#match", "note": null }, { "label": "Net result", "value": "−11.18 points", "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement", "note": "100 points per pick" }, { "label": "Return at our recorded market price", "value": "−0.8%", "anchor": "/methodology/#roi", "note": "95% interval −51.4% to +47.1%" } ], "limitations": [], "other_series": [], "return_over_time": [ { "date": "2026-10-23", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 10250, "n": 3 }, { "date": "2026-10-29", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 8781, "n": 6 }, { "date": "2026-10-30", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 24882, "n": 10 }, { "date": "2026-11-05", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -1118, "n": 14 } ], "return_over_time_parts": { "live": { "part": "live", "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "x_axis": "match_date", "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.", "settled_picks": 14, "matches": 11, "match_dates": 4, "period_from": "2026-10-23", "period_to": "2026-11-05", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "final_points_hundredths": -1118, "low": { "date": "2026-11-05", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -1118, "after_picks": 14 }, "high": { "date": "2026-10-30", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 24882, "after_picks": 10 }, "line_drawn": true, "steps": [ { "date": "2026-10-23", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 10250, "n": 3, "picks": 3 }, { "date": "2026-10-29", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 8781, "n": 6, "picks": 3 }, { "date": "2026-10-30", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 24882, "n": 10, "picks": 4 }, { "date": "2026-11-05", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -1118, "n": 14, "picks": 4 } ] }, "archived": null }, "author_response": null, "cite": { "text": "Forecast Record recorded 14 settled live picks by Christophe Paillet before kick-off across 11 matches between 23 October and 5 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −0.8% on the total staked. Of the 80 predictions we hold for Christophe Paillet, 43 are linked to matches: 23 were recorded by us before kick-off and 20 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/christophe-paillet/", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "2.2" }, "origin": { "contract_version": "1", "predictions": 80, "under_review": 0, "no_match_linked": 37, "proven_predictions": 23, "proven_checked": 21, "proven_measured": 14, "proven_dates": 4, "parts": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.", "predictions": 23, "checked": 21, "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "series_code": "market_price", "main": { "settled_picks": 14, "void": 0, "matches": 11, "net_points_hundredths": -1118, "staked_hundredths": 140000, "return_percent": "-0.80", "interval_low": "-51.37", "interval_high": "47.06", "interval_note": null, "period_from": "2026-10-23", "period_to": "2026-11-05", "method_version": "2.2", "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0", "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.0", "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 5 }, "same_picks": [ { "price": "Author-quoted price", "series_code": "author_price", "picks": 14, "return_main_percent": "-0.80", "return_other_percent": "-10.00", "settled_excluding_void": 14, "net_main_points_hundredths": -1118, "net_other_points_hundredths": -14000, "period_from": "2026-10-23", "period_to": "2026-11-05" }, { "price": "Closing price", "series_code": "closing_live", "picks": 11, "return_main_percent": "0.17", "return_other_percent": "5.08", "settled_excluding_void": 11, "net_main_points_hundredths": 182, "net_other_points_hundredths": 5583, "period_from": "2026-10-23", "period_to": "2026-11-05" } ], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 21, "priced": 14 }, "accuracy": { "picks": 14, "won": 8, "won_percent": "57.1", "implied_percent": "60.5", "left_out": 0, "by_market": [ { "market": "Match result", "won": 3, "picks": 8, "implied_percent": "61.9" }, { "market": "Player to score", "won": 2, "picks": 3, "implied_percent": "46.5" }, { "market": "Both teams to score", "won": 1, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "68.3" }, { "market": "Double chance", "won": 1, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "72.3" }, { "market": "Over/under goals", "won": 1, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "71.7" } ] }, "reviewed_after": { "predictions": 3, "right": 2, "wrong": 1, "other": 0 } }, { "code": "archived", "title": "Archived before kick-off", "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.", "predictions": 0, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null }, { "code": "found_after", "title": "Found after the match", "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.", "predictions": 20, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null } ] }, "live_alongside": null, "headline_record_ids": [ "n-207962f5b170e492230c5c43", "n-28acdb241381f61aaef9f54f", "n-2a52418701abab26a0e3584e", "n-4dfa67c5ab2abfe85b1e8c98", "n-7847ce84587429655da0337b", "n-800e4b4f2e499261b4162159", "n-83153a3fd88dc33329b55256", "n-8755933d1a6aad820851a559", "n-8c871adc00a50d03a1d68a51", "n-9ba32ff6c513d63cc84e6f3e", "n-c6a2f07100f82958725417ff", "n-cfc7d7623101bba3ded20117", "n-dd930ebb4d049e88151978c4", "n-f2650448b4fd08574bbd4a06" ], "interval_low": "-51.37", "interval_high": "47.06", "caption": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price · 100 points per pick · 23 October – 5 November 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under method v2.2", "record_from": "2026-10-13", "record_to": "2026-11-05" }, "recorded_picks": [ { "record_id": "n-8755933d1a6aad820851a559", "url": "/authors/christophe-paillet/picks/5/#pick-n-8755933d1a6aad820851a559", "match": "Monaco v Nordsjælland", "match_url": "/football/matches/monaco-vs-nordsjaelland-2026-11-05/", "kickoff": "2026-11-05T20:00:00.000Z", "competition": "UEFA Conference League", "lead_hours": 8.2, "market_code": "1x2", "author_said": "1X2, match result: Monaco at 1.35", "quote": null, "group": "settled", "outcome": "Won", "claim_outcome": "Won", "final_score": "2-0", "reason": null, "reason_code": null, "points_hundredths": 4000, "series_code": "market_price", "series_short": "odds snapshot", "author_price": "1.35", "settled_price": "1.4000", "published_at": "2026-11-05T11:38:45.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-11-05T11:49:51.397Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": true, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-8755933d1a6aad820851a559", "quote_text": "Notre pronostic : Monaco bat Nordsjaelland (1.35)", "fragment_from": 258, "fragment_to": 307, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://rmcsport.bfmtv.com/pari-sportif/pronos-paris-rmc-les-paris-sur-monaco-nordsjaelland-ligue-conference_AN-202611050439.html", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Christophe Paillet", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "59ea6ebad23f9206c492c9b5cb7c2ac295c5a7cc9f64466fa2d6e12b6274f178", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-11-05T11:38:45.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-05T11:49:51.397Z", "executed_at": "2026-11-05T11:51:12.591Z", "statement_class": "priced", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": "s-045835f2ee6d", "display_name": "Monaco — Nordsjælland", "competition_name": "UEFA Conference League", "starts_at": "2026-11-05T20:00:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/monaco-vs-nordsjaelland-2026-11-05/", "scoreline": "2-0", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "outcome_label": "Monaco", "odds_set": { "by_author": "1.35", "our_snapshot": "1.4000", "our_snapshot_at": "2026-11-05T11:49:25.174Z", "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot", "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "win", "simulation_change_hundredths": 4000, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": "ours", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-11-05T11:38:45.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-11-05T11:38:45.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-05T11:49:51.397Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "1X2, match result", "choice": "Monaco", "author_odds": "1.35", "market_key": "1x2", "choice_key": "1", "period": "match", "line": null, "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "1X2, match result: Monaco at 1.35" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "win", "scoreline": "2-0", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Won: the final score was Monaco 2-0 Nordsjælland." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "eb071f8ce79122049fad79a38d4b7f109b56d8ad2e9ad37fcb775113406faafe", "series_key": "author_price", "series_label": "At the author's stated price", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "choice": "Monaco", "decimal_odds": "1.35", "odds_role": "author_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "win", "result_words": "Won", "change_hundredths": 3500, "executed_at": "2026-11-05T11:51:11.971Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false }, { "operation_id": "192b98ad3c6f855d95223b77451e17fc55eae88d0afb49c61ff7e48b2ecfe81a", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "choice": "Monaco", "decimal_odds": "1.4000", "odds_role": "market_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "win", "result_words": "Won", "change_hundredths": 4000, "executed_at": "2026-11-05T11:51:12.591Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "settled_pick", "authorship": { "material_author": "Christophe Paillet", "publisher": "Les Paris RMC (RMC Sport)", "forecaster": "Christophe Paillet", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://rmcsport.bfmtv.com/pari-sportif/pronos-paris-rmc-les-paris-sur-monaco-nordsjaelland-ligue-conference_AN-202611050439.html", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null, "choice_words": "Monaco to win" } }, { "record_id": "n-cfc7d7623101bba3ded20117", "url": "/authors/christophe-paillet/picks/5/#pick-n-cfc7d7623101bba3ded20117", "match": "Bayer 04 Leverkusen v Olympique de Marseille", "match_url": "/football/matches/bayer-04-leverkusen-vs-olympique-de-marseille-2026-11-05/", "kickoff": "2026-11-05T20:00:00.000Z", "competition": "UEFA Europa League", "lead_hours": 8.2, "market_code": "player_to_score", "author_said": "Player to score: Patrik Schick to score at 1.75", "quote": null, "group": "settled", "outcome": "Lost", "claim_outcome": "Lost", "final_score": "0-1", "reason": null, "reason_code": null, "points_hundredths": -10000, "series_code": "market_price", "series_short": "odds snapshot", "author_price": "1.75", "settled_price": "1.6294", "published_at": "2026-11-05T11:48:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-11-05T11:49:48.972Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": true, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-cfc7d7623101bba3ded20117", "quote_text": "Buteur du jour : Schick (1.75)", "fragment_from": 1356, "fragment_to": 1386, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://rmcsport.bfmtv.com/pari-sportif/pronos-paris-rmc-les-paris-sur-leverkusen-marseille-du-5-novembre-ligue-europa_AN-202611050445.html", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Christophe Paillet", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "e5f756226e2b6d64c0377bb1db50bca9d8a486fe7c849883028a1957af7e815f", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-11-05T11:48:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-05T11:49:48.972Z", "executed_at": "2026-11-05T11:51:19.167Z", "statement_class": "priced", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": "s-0764a27860e9", "display_name": "Bayer 04 Leverkusen — Olympique de Marseille", "competition_name": "UEFA Europa League", "starts_at": "2026-11-05T20:00:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/bayer-04-leverkusen-vs-olympique-de-marseille-2026-11-05/", "scoreline": "0-1", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "Player to score", "outcome_label": "Patrik Schick to score", "odds_set": { "by_author": "1.75", "our_snapshot": "1.6294", "our_snapshot_at": "2026-11-05T11:49:30.387Z", "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot", "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "loss", "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": "ours", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-11-05T11:48:00.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-11-05T11:48:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-05T11:49:48.972Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Player to score", "choice": "Patrik Schick to score", "author_odds": "1.75", "market_key": "player_to_score", "choice_key": "yes", "period": "match", "line": null, "subject": "player_goals", "in_words": "Player to score: Patrik Schick to score at 1.75" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "loss", "scoreline": "0-1", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Lost — Patrik Schick scored 0 goals; the final score was Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0-1 Olympique de Marseille." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "c294dd3909183182745216de0f1230027f8e327ce7ea0e4da655e7db6681af68", "series_key": "author_price", "series_label": "At the author's stated price", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Player to score", "choice": "Patrik Schick to score", "decimal_odds": "1.75", "odds_role": "author_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "loss", "result_words": "Lost", "change_hundredths": -10000, "executed_at": "2026-11-05T11:51:18.313Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false }, { "operation_id": "abe770f9b3289ef6475a3cc38b77c37e3399e005324cb304ff00a74cc434accb", "series_key": "market_price", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "derived": false, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": true, "market_label": "Player to score", "choice": "Patrik Schick to score", "decimal_odds": "1.6294", "odds_role": "market_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "loss", "result_words": "Lost", "change_hundredths": -10000, "executed_at": "2026-11-05T11:51:19.167Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": true, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "settled_pick", "authorship": { "material_author": "Christophe Paillet", "publisher": "Les Paris RMC (RMC Sport)", "forecaster": "Christophe Paillet", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://rmcsport.bfmtv.com/pari-sportif/pronos-paris-rmc-les-paris-sur-leverkusen-marseille-du-5-novembre-ligue-europa_AN-202611050445.html", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null, "choice_words": "Patrik Schick to score" } }, { "record_id": "n-28acdb241381f61aaef9f54f", "url": "/authors/christophe-paillet/picks/4/#pick-n-28acdb241381f61aaef9f54f", "match": "Bayer 04 Leverkusen v Olympique de Marseille", "match_url": "/football/matches/bayer-04-leverkusen-vs-olympique-de-marseille-2026-11-05/", "kickoff": "2026-11-05T20:00:00.000Z", "competition": "UEFA Europa League", "lead_hours": 8.2, "market_code": "1x2", "author_said": "1X2, match result: Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 1.32", "quote": null, "group": "settled", "outcome": "Lost", "claim_outcome": "Lost", "final_score": "0-1", "reason": null, "reason_code": null, "points_hundredths": -10000, "series_code": "market_price", "series_short": "odds snapshot", "author_price": "1.32", "settled_price": "1.3003", "published_at": "2026-11-05T11:48:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-11-05T11:49:48.972Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": true, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-28acdb241381f61aaef9f54f", "quote_text": "Pari sûr : Leverkusen bat l’OM (1.32)", "fragment_from": 1317, "fragment_to": 1354, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://rmcsport.bfmtv.com/pari-sportif/pronos-paris-rmc-les-paris-sur-leverkusen-marseille-du-5-novembre-ligue-europa_AN-202611050445.html", "display_name": 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false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-d322af842412af2a3c96917a", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Pau ne perd pas contre Laval (1.23)", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-09T07:27:56.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-13T12:49:33.894Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-f3e1aaee362d99e584179182", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Nancy ne perd pas contre Guingamp (1.25)", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-09T07:27:56.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-13T12:49:33.894Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-bb39ac044d2f10c2370fc009", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Sochaux ne perd pas contre Boulogne (1.27)", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-09T07:27:56.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-13T12:49:33.894Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-c67da25101a18ab9d84a98e6", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Dunkerque ne perd pas contre Annecy (1.30)", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-09T07:27:56.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-13T12:49:33.894Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-115c72d5690e1ed72e9254a9", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Notre pronostic : le Borussia Dortmund bat le Werder Brême (1.31)", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-09T07:27:56.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-13T12:49:33.894Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-ed5bfb08b519299f17a4326f", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Nul entre Moreirense et Gil Vicente (3.05)", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-09T07:21:35.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-13T12:49:34.335Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-288e2d97b7dcfde2cfa91e85", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Nul entre Avellino et la Sampdoria (3.15)", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-09T07:21:35.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-13T12:49:34.335Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-3316f18a8e61d43b0015784a", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Notre pronostic : pas de vainqueur entre Braga et la Sporting (3.45)", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-09T07:21:35.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-13T12:49:34.335Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null } ], "lead_time": { "contract_version": 1, "threshold_hours": 2.0, "picks": 23, "before_kickoff": 23, "after_kickoff": 0, "at_least_2h": 23, "share_2h_plus": 100.0, "median_hours": 8.2, "min_hours": 4.5, "max_hours": 20.9, "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off." }, "baseline": { "contract_version": 1, "series_code": "market_price", "rule": "recorded-line-1.0", "state": "settled", "picks": 4, "settled_picks_all": 14, "excluded": { "market_without_favourite": 4, "no_recorded_line": 6, "favourite_not_settled": 0 }, "staked_hundredths": 40000, "author_net_hundredths": -9800, "favourite_net_hundredths": -9800, "difference_hundredths": 0, "author_return_percent": -24.5, "favourite_return_percent": -24.5, "author_hit_rate": 50.0, "favourite_hit_rate": 50.0, "picked_favourite_share": 100.0, "by_market": [ { "market_code": "1x2", "picks": 3, "staked_hundredths": 30000, "author_net_hundredths": -13750, "favourite_net_hundredths": -13750, "author_hits": 1, "favourite_hits": 1, "picked_favourite": 3, "author_return_percent": -45.83, "favourite_return_percent": -45.83 }, { "market_code": "total", "picks": 1, "staked_hundredths": 10000, "author_net_hundredths": 3950, "favourite_net_hundredths": 3950, "author_hits": 1, "favourite_hits": 1, "picked_favourite": 1, "author_return_percent": 39.5, "favourite_return_percent": 39.5 } ], "return_over_time": [ { "kickoff": "2026-10-23T18:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 6250, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 6250 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-23T18:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -3750, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -3750 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-30T19:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -13750, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -13750 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-30T20:05:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -9800, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -9800 } ], "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out." }, "pagination": { "per_page": 20, "total": 80, "pages": 5, "page_urls": [ "/authors/christophe-paillet/", "/authors/christophe-paillet/picks/2/", "/authors/christophe-paillet/picks/3/", "/authors/christophe-paillet/picks/4/", "/authors/christophe-paillet/picks/5/" ], "groups": { "settled": 14, "pending": 1, "excluded": 65 }, "continuation": "by_time", "page": 1, "first": 1, "last": 20, "author_url": "/authors/christophe-paillet/", "current": false }, "title_tag": "Christophe Paillet Predictions: Verified Record and Results", "calculator": null, "person": { "person_id": "o-3fdd50de4865e55179f17052", "type_code": "individual", "name_shown": "Christophe Paillet", "main_entity": "e-3fdd50de4865e55179f17052", "identity": { "status": "not_verified", "is_verified": false, "when": null, "source_list": [] }, "platform_list": [ { "entity_ref": "e-3fdd50de4865e55179f17052", "medium": "Les Paris RMC (RMC Sport)", "channel": "section pages", "domain": "rmcsport.bfmtv.com", "source_info": null, "byline": "Christophe Paillet", "url": null, "summary": { "statements": 112, "predictions": 80, "settled_picks": 14, "headline_kind": "live_snapshot", "return_percent": -0.8, "headline_part": "live", "period_from": "2026-10-13", "period_to": "2026-11-05" } } ], "previously": [], "trust_tier": "probation" }, "data_revision": { "data_version": "2026-11-07.2", "updated": "2026-11-07", "current_release": "2026-11-07.2", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "2.2", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "series_code": "market_price", "sample": { "settled_picks": 14, "matches": 11, "void": 0, "period_from": "2026-10-23", "period_to": "2026-11-05", "composition_hash": "1be701d420928bc73da4a005d42ac2f262a1428b2a024c52b683426843fb77bd" }, "changes_url": "#changes", "corrections_url": "/corrections/" }, "number_changes": [ { "id": "zc-d05f69c7027a5091350a", "at": "2026-11-07T20:05:20.937Z", "data_version": "2026-11-07.2", "previous_data_version": "2026-11-07.1", "url": "/authors/christophe-paillet/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-11-06.1", "return_percent": "-19.39", "settled_picks": 12, "matches": 10, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "1249cf74290a62ce7678334c1404df299c6fd06c13701f70e9254842b4a0f53b", "text": "−19.39% on 12 settled picks across 10 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-11-07.2", "return_percent": "-0.80", "settled_picks": 14, "matches": 11, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "1be701d420928bc73da4a005d42ac2f262a1428b2a024c52b683426843fb77bd", "text": "−0.80% on 14 settled picks across 11 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 2, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-64b8318b691cdcd830ec", "at": "2026-11-06T14:46:17.511Z", "data_version": "2026-11-06.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-11-05.3", "url": "/authors/christophe-paillet/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-31.1", "return_percent": "3.41", "settled_picks": 8, "matches": 7, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "b996a5a1879aa03cdddea1468b8957b64e497d593deeb09758bf99eefd4f32b1", "text": "+27.31 points on 8 settled picks across 7 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-11-06.1", "return_percent": "-19.39", "settled_picks": 12, "matches": 10, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "1249cf74290a62ce7678334c1404df299c6fd06c13701f70e9254842b4a0f53b", "text": "−19.39% on 12 settled picks across 10 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture); also 3 new results.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 4, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-725f99f4860a775867a4", "at": "2026-10-31T04:09:05.944Z", "data_version": "2026-10-31.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-30.3", "url": "/authors/christophe-paillet/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-30.1", "return_percent": "14.63", "settled_picks": 6, "matches": 5, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "5cd6cd96f6080154f312bb0aa22fb50c2eb04774b704473a06ee8856bc85215d", "text": "+87.81 points on 6 settled picks across 5 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-31.1", "return_percent": "3.41", "settled_picks": 8, "matches": 7, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "b996a5a1879aa03cdddea1468b8957b64e497d593deeb09758bf99eefd4f32b1", "text": "+27.31 points on 8 settled picks across 7 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "2 new settled picks from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 2, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-b1beef5c025305d8188e", "at": "2026-10-30T08:26:41.528Z", "data_version": "2026-10-30.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-29.1", "url": "/authors/christophe-paillet/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-24.3", "return_percent": "34.17", "settled_picks": 3, "matches": 2, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "c726583dcb0746b8d9b29622d4353012e6ff233dacae92ded2d5afa1a5c516fd", "text": "+102.50 points on 3 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-30.1", "return_percent": "14.63", "settled_picks": 6, "matches": 5, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "5cd6cd96f6080154f312bb0aa22fb50c2eb04774b704473a06ee8856bc85215d", "text": "+87.81 points on 6 settled picks across 5 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 3 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 3, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-c224ce0c31dd953d445d", "at": "2026-10-24T11:27:41.323Z", "data_version": "2026-10-24.3", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-24.2", "url": "/authors/christophe-paillet/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": null, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-24.3", "return_percent": "34.17", "settled_picks": 3, "matches": 2, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "c726583dcb0746b8d9b29622d4353012e6ff233dacae92ded2d5afa1a5c516fd", "text": "+102.50 points on 3 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · 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