{
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 "heading": "Cenk Demir: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "2 settled picks by Cenk Demir recorded before kick-off across 2 matches, 19 Oct 2026 – 20 Oct 2026: won 2 of 2 at our recorded market prices.",
 "first_paragraph": {
  "body": "Forecast Record recorded 2 settled live picks by Cenk Demir before kick-off across 2 matches between 19 and 20 October 2026. Won 2 of 2 settled live picks at our recorded market prices. Of the 13 predictions we hold for Cenk Demir, 11 are linked to matches: 7 were recorded by us before kick-off and 4 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "key_number": "2",
  "data": "2026-11-07",
  "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot",
  "brand": "Forecast Record"
 },
 "indexable": false,
 "noindex_reason": "too_few_settled",
 "indexing_threshold": {
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  "date_count": 3,
  "required_settled": 10,
  "required_dates": 2
 },
 "data_date": "2026-11-07T17:52:23.710Z",
 "built_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
 "lastmod": "2026-11-08T02:12:33.000Z",
 "content_hash": null,
 "meaning_hash": "ea6703ab366ec91f445c3e1c0ba059fcec55dc2e1cd03106ab06b96be853cbf2",
 "dependency_group": "author:e-310c716ccd52e28c0ca018fa",
 "release_id": "20261107-195223",
 "markup": [
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 "exports": [
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  {
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 ],
 "modules": {
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  "api": true,
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 },
 "affiliate_block": {
  "container": true,
  "request_url": "/partnery/moi",
  "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.",
  "page_category": "author"
 },
 "restrictions": {
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 },
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  "corrections_log": "/corrections/",
  "api": "/api/",
  "claim": "/claim/"
 },
 "entity": {
  "id": "e-310c716ccd52e28c0ca018fa",
  "public_name": "Cenk Demir",
  "tracker_number": 4927,
  "status": "active",
  "inactive_since": null,
  "verified_creator": false,
  "observation_period": {
   "since": "2026-10-17",
   "until": "2026-10-18"
  },
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    "medium": "website",
    "handle": null,
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 },
 "headline_number": {
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   "display_name": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot",
   "window_kind": "90d",
   "window_from": "2026-08-09",
   "window_to": "2026-11-07",
   "amount": "47.1900",
   "unit": "percent",
   "data_status": "calculated",
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   "n_bets": 2,
   "n_events": 2,
   "n_void": 0,
   "ci_low": null,
   "ci_high": null,
   "ci_method": "not_estimated",
   "price_source": "market_price",
   "coverage_percent": "100.00",
   "breakdown": [],
   "methodology_version": "2.2",
   "data_date": "2026-11-07T17:52:23.710Z",
   "enough_for_ranking": false,
   "series_uid": null,
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   "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot"
  },
  "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 2 settled picks across 2 matches",
  "average_odds": "1.38",
  "odds_from_author": 2,
  "odds_from_snapshot": 0
 },
 "metrics": [],
 "history": [],
 "simulation": {
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  "bankroll_hundredths": 1009438,
  "reserve_hundredths": 0,
  "issued_total_hundredths": 1000000,
  "top_up_count": 0,
  "profit_hundredths": 9438,
  "rewards_off": null,
  "initial_hundredths": 1000000,
  "stake_hundredths": 10000,
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   {
    "at": "2026-10-20T21:08:15.256Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 1004808,
    "profit_hundredths": 4808,
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   {
    "at": "2026-11-07T03:59:17.179Z",
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    "profit_hundredths": 9438,
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  "top_ups": [],
  "rule": "When the balance falls below 100 points and no bets are open, 10000 points are added; the remaining balance is kept. While bets are open we wait for settlement.",
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 },
 "simulations": [],
 "completeness": {
  "detected": 28,
  "recognised": 13,
  "accepted": 5,
  "executed": 3,
  "calculated": 2,
  "gaps": [
   {
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   },
   {
    "cause": "not_checked",
    "figure": 2
   },
   {
    "cause": "read after the match, from archived pages",
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   }
  ]
 },
 "record_counts": {
  "dictionary_version": "1",
  "statements": 28,
  "of_them_restored": 8,
  "not_predictions": {
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   "not_about_a_match": 13,
   "unclassified": 0
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  "predictions": 13,
  "predictions_restored": 4,
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  "admitted": 5,
  "qualifying_picks": 3,
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    ],
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   {
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    ],
    "methodologies": [
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    "display_name": "At the author's stated price"
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   {
    "code_name": "retro_author_price",
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    ],
    "methodologies": [
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    "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price"
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  "gaps": [
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    "code_name": "ambiguous",
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   {
    "code_name": "not_checked",
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   },
   {
    "code_name": "after_match",
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   }
  ],
  "duplicates": 0,
  "junk": {},
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 },
 "evidence_items": [
  {
   "observation_id": "n-953a4a48846b9ee4660451ae",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-953a4a48846b9ee4660451ae",
   "quote_text": "18 yaş altındakilerin kumar oynaması tehlikeli ve yasaktır!",
   "fragment_from": 4112,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://www.sahadaniddaa3.com/2026/10/18/uefa-sampiyonlar-liginde-heyecan-devam-ediyor-ingiliz-devi-liverpool-sahasinda-villarreali-konuk-ediyor-iddaa-tahmini/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Cenk Demir",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
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    "bundle_id": "1534e08c647bbc8b3236fdde0fde91c38589f3c1d317f46ce25c091db32d8953",
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   "published_at": "2026-10-18T03:43:00.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-10-18T15:10:56.629Z",
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "dates": {
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    "fragment_basis": "page",
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    "detected_at": "2026-10-18T15:10:56.629Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "no_match_linked",
   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-1c956989742aec28e0d5bd89",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-1c956989742aec28e0d5bd89",
   "quote_text": "Napoli galibiyetine rağmen Villarreal’in güven vermekten çok uzakta olduğunu söyleyelim.",
   "fragment_from": 3337,
   "fragment_to": 3425,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.sahadaniddaa3.com/2026/10/18/uefa-sampiyonlar-liginde-heyecan-devam-ediyor-ingiliz-devi-liverpool-sahasinda-villarreali-konuk-ediyor-iddaa-tahmini/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Cenk Demir",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
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   },
   "published_at": "2026-10-18T03:43:00.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-10-18T15:10:56.629Z",
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   "statement_class": "opinion",
   "status": "recognised",
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   "odds_set": {
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   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
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    "fragment_basis": "page",
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    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "no_match_linked",
   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-545add44bf0cf1822965d015",
   "url": "/authors/cenk-demir/#pick-n-545add44bf0cf1822965d015",
   "quote_text": "İddaa Oranı: MS 1, Oran ***\n\nMobilbahis Oranı: MS 1, Oran 1.48",
   "fragment_from": 4353,
   "fragment_to": 4415,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://www.sahadaniddaa3.com/2026/10/18/uefa-sampiyonlar-liginde-heyecan-devam-ediyor-ingiliz-devi-liverpool-sahasinda-villarreali-konuk-ediyor-iddaa-tahmini/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Cenk Demir",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "1534e08c647bbc8b3236fdde0fde91c38589f3c1d317f46ce25c091db32d8953",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": "2026-10-18T03:43:00.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-10-18T15:10:56.629Z",
   "executed_at": "2026-10-19T06:56:55.051Z",
   "statement_class": "priced",
   "status": "recognised",
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   "cause_code": null,
   "event": {
    "event_id": "s-e9ad016f0818",
    "display_name": "Liverpool — Villarreal",
    "competition_name": "UEFA Champions League",
    "starts_at": "2026-10-20T19:00:00.000Z",
    "url": "/football/matches/liverpool-vs-villarreal-2026-10-20/",
    "scoreline": "4-3",
    "condition": "finished"
   },
   "market_label": "1X2, match result",
   "outcome_label": "Liverpool",
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": "1.48",
    "our_snapshot": "1.4808",
    "our_snapshot_at": "2026-10-18T15:09:43.818Z",
    "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot",
    "closing": null,
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   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "win",
   "simulation_change_hundredths": 4808,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": "ours",
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "recorded_pre_match",
   "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
   "dates": {
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    "fragment_basis": "page",
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    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
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    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "1X2, match result",
    "choice": "Liverpool",
    "author_odds": "1.48",
    "market_key": "1x2",
    "choice_key": "1",
    "period": "match",
    "line": null,
    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "1X2, match result: Liverpool at 1.48"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": "win",
    "scoreline": "4-3",
    "data_status": "measured",
    "cause": null,
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "Won: the final score was Liverpool 4-3 Villarreal."
   },
   "settlements": [
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     "series_key": "author_price",
     "series_label": "At the author's stated price",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "Liverpool",
     "decimal_odds": "1.48",
     "odds_role": "author_price",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "win",
     "result_words": "Won",
     "change_hundredths": 4800,
     "executed_at": "2026-10-19T06:56:53.554Z",
     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    },
    {
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     "series_key": "market_price",
     "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "Liverpool",
     "decimal_odds": "1.4808",
     "odds_role": "market_price",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "win",
     "result_words": "Won",
     "change_hundredths": 4808,
     "executed_at": "2026-10-19T06:56:55.051Z",
     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    }
   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
   "authorship": {
    "material_author": "Cenk Demir",
    "publisher": "sahadaniddaa3.com",
    "forecaster": "Cenk Demir",
    "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
    "basis": null,
    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
    "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://www.sahadaniddaa3.com/2026/10/18/uefa-sampiyonlar-liginde-heyecan-devam-ediyor-ingiliz-devi-liverpool-sahasinda-villarreali-konuk-ediyor-iddaa-tahmini/",
    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
    "verdict_by": null,
    "verdict_line": null
   },
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-0a5a7d68bed491590956efad",
   "url": "/authors/cenk-demir/#pick-n-0a5a7d68bed491590956efad",
   "quote_text": "Fenerbahçe – Slavia Prag: MS 1, *** (iddaa) – 1.70 (Bets10)",
   "fragment_from": 331,
   "fragment_to": 390,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://www.sahadaniddaa3.com/2026/10/18/gunun-iddaa-kuponu-20-ekim-sali-2026/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Cenk Demir",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
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    "bundle_id": "4cf07f25998352b63a3bdb1191c65407583d0fc8585eb40dc7a194e67d45bf94",
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   },
   "published_at": "2026-10-18T05:40:46.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-10-18T15:10:55.614Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "unpriced",
   "status": "ambiguous",
   "cause": "",
   "cause_code": "ambiguous",
   "event": {
    "event_id": "s-a3e3d14ee503",
    "display_name": "Fenerbahçe — SK Slavia Praha",
    "competition_name": "UEFA Champions League",
    "starts_at": "2026-10-20T16:45:00.000Z",
    "url": "/football/matches/fenerbahce-vs-sk-slavia-praha-2026-10-20/",
    "scoreline": "2-2",
    "condition": "finished"
   },
   "market_label": "Combined pick (bet builder or multiple), 2 legs",
   "outcome_label": "Fenerbahçe (1X2, match result) + FC Barcelona (1X2, match result)",
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": null,
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": "loss",
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
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    "source_page_at": "2026-10-16T23:11:00.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-17T15:55:03.108Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
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    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "1X2, match result",
    "choice": "Tottenham Hotspur",
    "author_odds": "1.28",
    "market_key": "1x2",
    "choice_key": "1",
    "period": "match",
    "line": null,
    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "1X2, match result: Tottenham Hotspur at 1.28"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": "win",
    "scoreline": "3-1",
    "data_status": "measured",
    "cause": null,
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "Won: the final score was Tottenham Hotspur 3-1 Coventry City."
   },
   "settlements": [
    {
     "operation_id": "3004f5d708b76c818e48a61effe0924573e1df688b551e3199360c3bf291115e",
     "series_key": "author_price",
     "series_label": "At the author's stated price",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "Tottenham Hotspur",
     "decimal_odds": "1.28",
     "odds_role": "author_price",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
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     "result_words": "Won",
     "change_hundredths": 2800,
     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T03:40:36.004Z",
     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    },
    {
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     "series_key": "market_price",
     "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "Tottenham Hotspur",
     "decimal_odds": "1.4630",
     "odds_role": "market_price",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
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     "result_words": "Won",
     "change_hundredths": 4630,
     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T03:40:45.919Z",
     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    }
   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
   "authorship": {
    "material_author": "Cenk Demir",
    "publisher": "sahadaniddaa3.com",
    "forecaster": "Cenk Demir",
    "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
    "basis": null,
    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
    "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://www.sahadaniddaa3.com/2026/10/17/ingiltere-premier-ligde-heyecan-pazartesi-aksami-devam-ediyor-tottenham-taraftari-onunde-coventryi-konuk-ediyor-iddaa-tahmini/",
    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
    "verdict_by": null,
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   },
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-4896352a63e64c1d1e633208",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-4896352a63e64c1d1e633208",
   "quote_text": "Bets10 Bahis Oranı: 3.70",
   "fragment_from": 5741,
   "fragment_to": 5765,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.sahadaniddaa3.com/2026/10/17/gunun-iddaa-kuponu-19-ekim-pazartesi-2026/",
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    "speaker": "Cenk Demir",
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   },
   "published_at": "2026-10-17T08:51:08.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-10-17T15:55:02.353Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
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   "odds_set": {
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    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
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   "executed_by": null,
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
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    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2026-10-17T08:51:08.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-17T15:55:02.353Z",
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    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
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   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-7640d6e519b7e9bb9dbaa22f",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-7640d6e519b7e9bb9dbaa22f",
   "quote_text": "Toplam İddaa Oranı: 2.79",
   "fragment_from": 5715,
   "fragment_to": 5739,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.sahadaniddaa3.com/2026/10/17/gunun-iddaa-kuponu-19-ekim-pazartesi-2026/",
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    "speaker": "Cenk Demir",
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   },
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   "odds_set": {
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   },
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
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    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2026-10-17T08:51:08.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-17T15:55:02.353Z",
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   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-493d3001ce75c7dea9ce0fe9",
   "url": "/authors/cenk-demir/#pick-n-493d3001ce75c7dea9ce0fe9",
   "quote_text": "Tottenham –Coventry: MS 1, 1.28 (iddaa)",
   "fragment_from": 3027,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.sahadaniddaa3.com/2026/10/17/gunun-iddaa-kuponu-19-ekim-pazartesi-2026/",
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    "speaker": "Cenk Demir",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
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   },
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   "detected_at": "2026-10-17T15:55:02.353Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "priced",
   "status": "too_late",
   "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
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   "event": {
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    "display_name": "Tottenham Hotspur v Coventry City",
    "competition_name": "Premier League",
    "starts_at": "2026-10-19T19:00:00.000Z",
    "url": null,
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   },
   "market_label": "1X2, match result",
   "outcome_label": "Tottenham Hotspur",
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   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "unknown",
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   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
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    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2026-10-17T08:51:08.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-17T15:55:02.353Z",
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    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
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   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "1X2, match result",
    "choice": "Tottenham Hotspur",
    "author_odds": "1.28",
    "market_key": "1x2",
    "choice_key": "1",
    "period": "match",
    "line": null,
    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "1X2, match result: Tottenham Hotspur at 1.28"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": "unknown",
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "awaiting a final score for this restored pick",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "Pending: awaiting a final score for this restored pick."
   },
   "settlements": [
    {
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     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "Tottenham Hotspur",
     "decimal_odds": "1.28",
     "odds_role": "author_price",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "skipped",
     "status_text": "Not executed: not settled",
     "result": "unknown",
     "result_words": "Pending",
     "change_hundredths": null,
     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:26:02.398Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
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     "replaced": false
    }
   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "prediction",
   "authorship": {
    "material_author": "Cenk Demir",
    "publisher": "sahadaniddaa3.com",
    "forecaster": "Cenk Demir",
    "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
    "basis": null,
    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
    "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://www.sahadaniddaa3.com/2026/10/17/gunun-iddaa-kuponu-19-ekim-pazartesi-2026/",
    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
    "verdict_by": null,
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   },
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-5959c4e7e04de4adf547da41",
   "url": "/authors/cenk-demir/#pick-n-5959c4e7e04de4adf547da41",
   "quote_text": "Trabzonspor – Beşiktaş: İY 0, 2.18 (iddaa)",
   "fragment_from": 332,
   "fragment_to": 374,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.sahadaniddaa3.com/2026/10/17/gunun-iddaa-kuponu-19-ekim-pazartesi-2026/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Cenk Demir",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
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    "bundle_id": "3fbce8c914e0bbf8f472442bcb5666a173e0d24ba8782343e0a5bd35ccb211b4",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": "2026-10-17T08:51:08.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-10-17T15:55:02.353Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "priced",
   "status": "too_late",
   "cause": "",
   "cause_code": "too_late",
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
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    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": "2026-10-17T08:51:08.000Z",
    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2026-10-17T08:51:08.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-17T15:55:02.353Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "prediction",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  }
 ],
 "standing": null,
 "retro": null,
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "threshold_percent": "5",
  "rows": [
   {
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "basis_words": "our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off)",
    "basis_short": "Our market price when we first recorded the pick",
    "compared": 2,
    "above": 0,
    "above_share_percent": "0.0",
    "below": 1,
    "within": 1,
    "median_difference_percent": "-6.3",
    "not_comparable": 0,
    "disputed": 0,
    "status": "calculated"
   }
  ],
  "examples": [
   {
    "url": "/authors/cenk-demir/#pick-n-dbfca42b42cb8dc6faf8d651",
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "stated": "1.28",
    "market": "1.46",
    "difference_percent": "-12.5"
   }
  ],
  "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way."
 },
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "sahadaniddaa3.com",
   "url": "https://www.sahadaniddaa3.com/2026/10/18/uefa-sampiyonlar-liginde-heyecan-devam-ediyor-ingiliz-devi-liverpool-sahasinda-villarreali-konuk-ediyor-iddaa-tahmini/"
  },
  "observed_from": "2026-10-17",
  "observed_to": "2026-10-18",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "market_price",
  "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price",
  "restored": false,
  "headline_kind": "live_snapshot",
  "headline_part": "live",
  "settled_picks": 2,
  "matches": 2,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": 9438,
  "staked_hundredths": 20000,
  "return_percent": "47.19",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2026-10-19",
  "period_to": "2026-10-20",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "2.2",
  "short_history": true,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record recorded 2 settled live picks by Cenk Demir before kick-off across 2 matches between 19 and 20 October 2026. Won 2 of 2 settled live picks at our recorded market prices. Of the 13 predictions we hold for Cenk Demir, 11 are linked to matches: 7 were recorded by us before kick-off and 4 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled live picks",
    "value": "2",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "2",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "+94.38 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "value": "+47.2%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": null
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": {
    "part": "live",
    "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.",
    "settled_picks": 2,
    "matches": 2,
    "match_dates": 2,
    "period_from": "2026-10-19",
    "period_to": "2026-10-20",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": 9438,
    "low": {
     "date": "2026-10-19",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 4630,
     "after_picks": 1
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2026-10-20",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 9438,
     "after_picks": 2
    },
    "line_drawn": false,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2026-10-19",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 4630,
      "n": 1,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-20",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 9438,
      "n": 2,
      "picks": 1
     }
    ]
   },
   "archived": null
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record recorded 2 settled live picks by Cenk Demir before kick-off across 2 matches between 19 and 20 October 2026. Won 2 of 2 settled live picks at our recorded market prices. Of the 13 predictions we hold for Cenk Demir, 11 are linked to matches: 7 were recorded by us before kick-off and 4 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/cenk-demir/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "2.2"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 13,
   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 2,
   "proven_predictions": 7,
   "proven_checked": 7,
   "proven_measured": 2,
   "proven_dates": 3,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 7,
     "checked": 7,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 2,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 2,
      "net_points_hundredths": 9438,
      "staked_hundredths": 20000,
      "return_percent": "47.19",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2026-10-19",
      "period_to": "2026-10-20",
      "method_version": "2.2",
      "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0",
      "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.0",
      "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 1
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "author_price",
       "picks": 2,
       "return_main_percent": "47.19",
       "return_other_percent": "38.00",
       "settled_excluding_void": 2,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 9438,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 7600,
       "period_from": "2026-10-19",
       "period_to": "2026-10-20"
      },
      {
       "price": "Closing price",
       "series_code": "closing_live",
       "picks": 2,
       "return_main_percent": "47.19",
       "return_other_percent": "53.63",
       "settled_excluding_void": 2,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 9438,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 10727,
       "period_from": "2026-10-19",
       "period_to": "2026-10-20"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 7,
      "priced": 2
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 2,
      "won": 2,
      "won_percent": "100.0",
      "implied_percent": "67.9",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 2,
        "picks": 2,
        "implied_percent": "67.9"
       }
      ]
     },
     "reviewed_after": {
      "predictions": 2,
      "right": 1,
      "wrong": 1,
      "other": 0
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 4,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    }
   ]
  },
  "live_alongside": null,
  "headline_record_ids": [
   "n-545add44bf0cf1822965d015",
   "n-dbfca42b42cb8dc6faf8d651"
  ],
  "interval_low": null,
  "interval_high": null,
  "caption": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price · 100 points per pick · 19–20 October 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under method v2.2",
  "record_from": "2026-10-17",
  "record_to": "2026-10-20"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
  {
   "record_id": "n-545add44bf0cf1822965d015",
   "url": "/authors/cenk-demir/#pick-n-545add44bf0cf1822965d015",
   "match": "Liverpool v Villarreal",
   "match_url": "/football/matches/liverpool-vs-villarreal-2026-10-20/",
   "kickoff": "2026-10-20T19:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "UEFA Champions League",
   "lead_hours": 51.8,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: Liverpool at 1.48",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Won",
   "claim_outcome": "Won",
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   "points_hundredths": 4808,
   "series_code": "market_price",
   "series_short": "odds snapshot",
   "author_price": "1.48",
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   "published_at": "2026-10-18T03:43:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-18T15:10:56.629Z",
   "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
   "record_part": "live",
   "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off",
   "in_headline": true,
   "attribution": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": {
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    "result": "Won",
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    "picked_favourite": true
   },
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
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    "quote_text": "İddaa Oranı: MS 1, Oran ***\n\nMobilbahis Oranı: MS 1, Oran 1.48",
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    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
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     "speaker": "Cenk Demir",
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    },
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    "detected_at": "2026-10-18T15:10:56.629Z",
    "executed_at": "2026-10-19T06:56:55.051Z",
    "statement_class": "priced",
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     "starts_at": "2026-10-20T19:00:00.000Z",
     "url": "/football/matches/liverpool-vs-villarreal-2026-10-20/",
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    },
    "market_label": "1X2, match result",
    "outcome_label": "Liverpool",
    "odds_set": {
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     "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot",
     "closing": null,
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    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
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    "simulation_change_hundredths": 4808,
    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
    "executed_by": "ours",
    "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot",
    "withdrawn": false,
    "provenance": "recorded_pre_match",
    "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "dates": {
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     "fragment_basis": "page",
     "source_page_at": "2026-10-18T03:43:00.000Z",
     "detected_at": "2026-10-18T15:10:56.629Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [],
     "flag_words": null,
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff",
    "origin_detail": null,
    "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "added_on": null,
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "Liverpool",
     "author_odds": "1.48",
     "market_key": "1x2",
     "choice_key": "1",
     "period": "match",
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     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "1X2, match result: Liverpool at 1.48"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
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     "cause": null,
     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "in_words": "Won: the final score was Liverpool 4-3 Villarreal."
    },
    "settlements": [
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      "series_key": "author_price",
      "series_label": "At the author's stated price",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "1X2, match result",
      "choice": "Liverpool",
      "decimal_odds": "1.48",
      "odds_role": "author_price",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
      "status_text": "Executed",
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      "executed_at": "2026-10-19T06:56:53.554Z",
      "methodology_version": "2.2",
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     },
     {
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      "site_simulation": true,
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      "market_label": "1X2, match result",
      "choice": "Liverpool",
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      "odds_role": "market_price",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
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    ],
    "corrections": [],
    "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
    "authorship": {
     "material_author": "Cenk Demir",
     "publisher": "sahadaniddaa3.com",
     "forecaster": "Cenk Demir",
     "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
     "basis": null,
     "status": "not_named",
     "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
     "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
     "evidence_fragment": null,
     "material_url": "https://www.sahadaniddaa3.com/2026/10/18/uefa-sampiyonlar-liginde-heyecan-devam-ediyor-ingiliz-devi-liverpool-sahasinda-villarreali-konuk-ediyor-iddaa-tahmini/",
     "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
     "verdict_by": null,
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    },
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    "choice_words": "Liverpool to win"
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  },
  {
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   "kickoff": "2026-10-19T19:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": 51.1,
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   "claim_outcome": "Won",
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   "points_hundredths": 4630,
   "series_code": "market_price",
   "series_short": "odds snapshot",
   "author_price": "1.28",
   "settled_price": "1.4630",
   "published_at": "2026-10-16T23:11:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-17T15:55:03.108Z",
   "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
   "record_part": "live",
   "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off",
   "in_headline": true,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
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    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
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     "url": "https://www.sahadaniddaa3.com/2026/10/17/ingiltere-premier-ligde-heyecan-pazartesi-aksami-devam-ediyor-tottenham-taraftari-onunde-coventryi-konuk-ediyor-iddaa-tahmini/",
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     "speaker": "Cenk Demir",
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    "executed_at": "2026-11-07T03:40:45.919Z",
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     "url": "/football/matches/tottenham-hotspur-vs-coventry-city-2026-10-19/",
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    },
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    "outcome_label": "Tottenham Hotspur",
    "odds_set": {
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     "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot",
     "closing": null,
     "closing_source": null
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
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    "dates": {
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     "flags": [],
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     "rule_version": "1.1"
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    "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff",
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    "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
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    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": {
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     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "1X2, match result: Tottenham Hotspur at 1.28"
    },
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     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "in_words": "Won: the final score was Tottenham Hotspur 3-1 Coventry City."
    },
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      "site_simulation": true,
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      "market_label": "1X2, match result",
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      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
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      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "1X2, match result",
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      "odds_role": "market_price",
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    ],
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     "basis": null,
     "status": "not_named",
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     "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
     "evidence_fragment": null,
     "material_url": "https://www.sahadaniddaa3.com/2026/10/17/ingiltere-premier-ligde-heyecan-pazartesi-aksami-devam-ediyor-tottenham-taraftari-onunde-coventryi-konuk-ediyor-iddaa-tahmini/",
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    },
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    "choice_words": "Tottenham Hotspur to win"
   }
  },
  {
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   "kickoff": "2026-10-20T16:45:00.000Z",
   "competition": "UEFA Champions League",
   "lead_hours": 49.6,
   "market_code": "multi",
   "author_said": "Combined pick (bet builder or multiple), 2 legs: Fenerbahçe (1X2, match result) + FC Barcelona (1X2, match result)",
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   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "2-2",
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "ambiguous",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
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   "published_at": "2026-10-18T05:40:46.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-18T15:10:55.614Z",
   "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
   "record_part": "live",
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   "in_headline": false,
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   "favourite": null,
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   "evidence": {
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    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
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   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
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  "threshold_hours": 2.0,
  "picks": 8,
  "before_kickoff": 8,
  "after_kickoff": 0,
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  "share_2h_plus": 100.0,
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  "picks": 1,
  "settled_picks_all": 2,
  "excluded": {
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  "author_hit_rate": 100.0,
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