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On 5 of these matches the other tipsters and sources were right 66.0% of the time. Data: live record. Term: a dated fact.", "provenance": "live", "rules_version": "catalog-1", "methodology_version": "catalog-1", "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "valid_until": null, "anchor_id": "standing-p-01-w-f27483582c-event", "alt": "Ben Sully · 6/7 result calls right · week of 5 Oct 2026 · Tracked by Forecast Record", "csv_url": null, "embed": "\"Ben", "neighbours": [], "window_words": "On show until 8 Feb 2027", "measure_words": null, "amount_words": null, "interval_words": null, "title_tier": "dated_record", "status": "active", "status_reason": null, "event_at": "2026-10-11", "evidence_through": "2026-10-11", "earned_at": "2026-10-11", "published_at": "2026-10-19", "visible_until": "2027-02-08", "badge_label": "6/7 · week of 5 Oct", "scope_words": null, "title_id": "zk-f27483582c3756acd72f", "evidence_items": [ { "nid": "n-a89f0917c561636cd9708d83", "data": "2026-10-06", "match": "India v Uruguay", "said_text": "Correct score: India 0-3 Uruguay", "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right", "evidence_price": 1.03, "comparison": null, "url": "/authors/ben-sully/picks/2/#pick-n-a89f0917c561636cd9708d83" }, { "nid": "n-1258264d99c825247dd63d89", "data": "2026-10-06", "match": "Argentina v Benin", "said_text": "Correct score: Argentina 4-0 Benin", "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right", "evidence_price": 1.01, "comparison": "1 other tipster on this match, 1 right (1 named home win)", "url": "/authors/ben-sully/picks/2/#pick-n-1258264d99c825247dd63d89" }, { "nid": "n-444eef5f9adf54be1dc5f7ac", "data": "2026-10-11", "match": "Southampton v Portsmouth", "said_text": "Correct score: Southampton 3-1 Portsmouth", "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right", "evidence_price": 1.55, "comparison": "8 other tipsters and sources on this match, 7 right (7 named home win, 1 named draw)", "url": "/authors/ben-sully/picks/2/#pick-n-444eef5f9adf54be1dc5f7ac" }, { "nid": "n-807591aaa30af4ce84fef951", "data": "2026-10-11", "match": "Elche v Celta Vigo", "said_text": "Correct score: Elche 1-2 Celta Vigo", "outcome_label": "score wrong · result wrong", "evidence_price": 2.4, "comparison": "11 other tipsters and sources on this match, 2 right (9 named away win, 2 named draw)", "url": "/authors/ben-sully/picks/2/#pick-n-807591aaa30af4ce84fef951" }, { "nid": "n-3dc9ca732dac62b4d483d950", "data": "2026-10-11", "match": "Real Betis v Osasuna", "said_text": "Correct score: Real Betis 2-1 Osasuna", "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right", "evidence_price": null, "comparison": "12 other tipsters and sources on this match, 12 right (12 named home win)", "url": "/authors/ben-sully/picks/2/#pick-n-3dc9ca732dac62b4d483d950" }, { "nid": "n-2bad4e768c77d3e71a154ac6", "data": "2026-10-11", "match": "Real Sociedad v Deportivo de A Coruña", "said_text": "Correct score: Real Sociedad 2-1 Deportivo de A Coruña", "outcome_label": "score wrong · result right", "evidence_price": null, "comparison": "11 other tipsters and sources on this match, 10 right (10 named home win, 1 named away win)", "url": "/authors/ben-sully/picks/2/#pick-n-2bad4e768c77d3e71a154ac6" }, { "nid": "n-8df04d866c1ea0948e993bc1", "data": "2026-10-11", "match": "Real Racing Club v Valencia", "said_text": "1X2, match result: draw", "outcome_label": "right", "evidence_price": null, "comparison": "9 other tipsters and sources on this match, 3 right (6 named home win, 3 named draw)", "url": "/authors/ben-sully/picks/2/#pick-n-8df04d866c1ea0948e993bc1" } ], "evidence_total": 7, "badge": { "variants": [ { "size": "l", "theme": "light", "width": 948, "height": 40, "url": "/b/e-45ceaa0bd8569c02e836dc68/p-01-w-f27483582c-event-l-light.svg" }, { "size": "l", "theme": "dark", "width": 948, "height": 40, "url": "/b/e-45ceaa0bd8569c02e836dc68/p-01-w-f27483582c-event-l-dark.svg" }, { "size": "m", "theme": "light", "width": 697, "height": 28, "url": "/b/e-45ceaa0bd8569c02e836dc68/p-01-w-f27483582c-event-m-light.svg" }, { "size": "m", "theme": "dark", "width": 697, "height": 28, "url": "/b/e-45ceaa0bd8569c02e836dc68/p-01-w-f27483582c-event-m-dark.svg" }, { "size": "s", "theme": "light", "width": 543, "height": 20, "url": "/b/e-45ceaa0bd8569c02e836dc68/p-01-w-f27483582c-event-s-light.svg" }, { "size": "s", "theme": "dark", "width": 543, "height": 20, "url": "/b/e-45ceaa0bd8569c02e836dc68/p-01-w-f27483582c-event-s-dark.svg" } ], "card_url": "/b/e-45ceaa0bd8569c02e836dc68/p-01-w-f27483582c-event-card.svg" }, "profile_anchor": "title-f27483582c37", "chance": { "contract_version": 1, "kind": "at_least", "priced": 4, "unpriced": 3, "hits": 0, "probability": 1.0, "one_in": 1, "log10": 0.0, "words": "about even", "rule": "probability of at least this many correct picks if each pick came in with its market probability (1/price); exact Poisson-binomial", "note": "market prices include the bookmaker margin, so the chance is slightly overstated — a cautious figure" }, "embed_anchor": "title-week-record" }, { "code_name": "CS-10", "display_name": "Exact score 0–4 · India v Brazil · 3 Oct 2026", "received_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "window_kind": "event", "cause": null, "type_code": null, "bucket_code": "z-71faac1287", "bucket": "Exact score called", "measure": null, "place": null, "out_of": null, "n_bets": 1, "n_events": null, "amount": null, "ci_low": null, "ci_high": null, "ci_level": null, "fact": "Exact score 0–4 · India v Brazil · 3 Oct 2026", "rationale": "Correct score 0–4 called before the match; 2 other tipsters and sources named an exact score on this match, 0 right. Data: live record. Term: a dated fact.", "provenance": "live", "rules_version": "catalog-1", "methodology_version": "catalog-1", "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z", "valid_until": null, "anchor_id": "standing-cs-10-z-71faac1287-event", "alt": "Ben Sully · Exact score 0–4 · India v Brazil · 3 Oct 2026 · Tracked by Forecast Record", "csv_url": null, "embed": "\"Ben", "neighbours": [], "window_words": "On show until 1 Jan 2027", "measure_words": null, "amount_words": null, "interval_words": null, "title_tier": "dated_record", "status": "active", "status_reason": null, "event_at": "2026-10-03", "evidence_through": "2026-10-03", "earned_at": "2026-10-03", "published_at": "2026-10-19", "visible_until": "2027-01-01", "badge_label": "Exact score 0–4 · 3 Oct", "scope_words": null, "title_id": "zk-71faac1287d96f5b4215", "evidence_items": [ { "nid": "n-bcbacb647f362d0b7a05cdc2", "data": "2026-10-03", "match": "India v Brazil", "said_text": "Correct score: India 0-4 Brazil", "outcome_label": "score right · result right", "evidence_price": null, "comparison": "2 other tipsters and sources named an exact score on this match, 0 right", "url": "/authors/ben-sully/picks/2/#pick-n-bcbacb647f362d0b7a05cdc2" } ], "evidence_total": 1, "badge": { "variants": [ { "size": "l", "theme": "light", "width": 970, "height": 40, "url": "/b/e-45ceaa0bd8569c02e836dc68/cs-10-z-71faac1287-event-l-light.svg" }, { "size": "l", "theme": "dark", "width": 970, "height": 40, "url": "/b/e-45ceaa0bd8569c02e836dc68/cs-10-z-71faac1287-event-l-dark.svg" }, { "size": "m", "theme": "light", "width": 713, "height": 28, "url": "/b/e-45ceaa0bd8569c02e836dc68/cs-10-z-71faac1287-event-m-light.svg" }, { "size": "m", "theme": "dark", "width": 713, "height": 28, "url": "/b/e-45ceaa0bd8569c02e836dc68/cs-10-z-71faac1287-event-m-dark.svg" }, { "size": "s", "theme": "light", "width": 556, "height": 20, "url": "/b/e-45ceaa0bd8569c02e836dc68/cs-10-z-71faac1287-event-s-light.svg" }, { "size": "s", "theme": "dark", "width": 556, "height": 20, "url": "/b/e-45ceaa0bd8569c02e836dc68/cs-10-z-71faac1287-event-s-dark.svg" } ], "card_url": "/b/e-45ceaa0bd8569c02e836dc68/cs-10-z-71faac1287-event-card.svg" }, "profile_anchor": "title-71faac1287d9", "chance": { "contract_version": 1, "kind": "single", "priced": 0, "unpriced": 1, "probability": null, "one_in": null, "words": "No recorded prices for these picks, so the chance cannot be measured." }, "embed_anchor": "title-exact-score-called-exact-score-called-4" } ], "publication_mode": "top20", "empty_reason": null, "rules_version": "catalog-1", "insufficient": [], "badges_on_page": 0, "header_titles": [ { "title_id": "zk-f27483582c3756acd72f", "code_name": "P-01", "title_tier": "dated_record", "badge_label": "6/7 · week of 5 Oct", "body": "6/7 result calls right · week of 5 Oct 2026", "tier": null, "provenance": "live", "anchor_id": "title-f27483582c37", "event_at": "2026-10-11", "url": "/titles/p-01-week-record/#zk-f27483582c3756acd72f" }, { "title_id": "zk-bd2ae6579bf9115ac363", "code_name": "CS-10", "title_tier": "dated_record", "badge_label": "Exact score 0–2 · 28 Oct", "body": "Exact score 0–2 · Hannover 96 v Kaiserslautern · 28 Oct 2026", "tier": null, "provenance": "live", "anchor_id": "title-bd2ae6579bf9", "event_at": "2026-10-28", "url": "/titles/cs-10-exact-score-called/#zk-bd2ae6579bf9115ac363" }, { "title_id": "zk-e077171a09db69ae475a", "code_name": "CS-10", "title_tier": "dated_record", "badge_label": "Exact score 2–0 · 27 Oct", "body": "Exact score 2–0 · Bradford City v Peterborough United · 27 Oct 2026", "tier": null, "provenance": "live", "anchor_id": "title-e077171a09db", "event_at": "2026-10-27", "url": "/titles/cs-10-exact-score-called/#zk-e077171a09db69ae475a" } ], "record_origin": [ { "portion": "live", "n": 35, "body": "35 recorded before kick-off · since 3 Oct 2026" } ], "recent_record": [ { "code_name": "P-01", "body": "6/7 result calls right · week of 5 Oct 2026", "event_at": "2026-10-11", "url": null, "provenance": "live", "anchor_id": "title-f27483582c37" }, { "code_name": "CS-10", "body": "Exact score 0–2 · Hannover 96 v Kaiserslautern · 28 Oct 2026", "event_at": "2026-10-28", "url": null, "provenance": "live", "anchor_id": "title-bd2ae6579bf9" }, { "code_name": "CS-10", "body": "Exact score 2–0 · Bradford City v Peterborough United · 27 Oct 2026", "event_at": "2026-10-27", "url": null, "provenance": "live", "anchor_id": "title-e077171a09db" }, { "code_name": "CS-10", "body": "Exact score 2–1 · Real Sociedad v Levante UD · 25 Oct 2026", "event_at": "2026-10-25", "url": null, "provenance": "live", "anchor_id": "title-0e6e2bbf16ed" }, { "code_name": "CS-10", "body": "Exact score 2–1 · Portsmouth v Millwall · 24 Oct 2026", "event_at": "2026-10-24", "url": null, "provenance": "live", "anchor_id": "title-ce2ce7f1a188" }, { "code_name": "CS-10", "body": "Exact score 0–4 · India v Brazil · 3 Oct 2026", "event_at": "2026-10-03", "url": null, "provenance": "live", "anchor_id": "title-71faac1287d9" } ], "record_details": [ { "code_name": "M-11", "body": "Most recorded: Correct score · 31 matches", "details_words": "Correct score 5/31 (31 matches); Match result (1X2) 3/4 (4 matches)", "url": null, "provenance": "live", "display_name": "Most recorded bet type", "rule_href": "/titles/m-11-most-recorded-bet-type/" }, { "code_name": "CS-01", "body": "Exact scores · 5/31", "details_words": null, "url": null, "provenance": "live", "display_name": "Exact scores", "rule_href": "/titles/cs-01-exact-scores/" }, { "code_name": "X-01", "body": "Longest price: correct at 3.28 · 25 Oct 2026", "details_words": "Celta Vigo v Real Betis · Draw at 3.28 (our pre-match price) · from the predicted score: Correct score: Celta Vigo 1-1 Real Betis", "url": "/authors/ben-sully/picks/3/#pick-n-88f1e359e17397958bee0711", "provenance": "live", "display_name": "Correct at a long price", "rule_href": "/titles/x-01-correct-at-a-long-price/" }, { "code_name": "E-01", "body": "Draw calls · 3/11", "details_words": null, "url": null, "provenance": "live", "display_name": "Draw calls", "rule_href": "/titles/e-01-draw-calls/" }, { "code_name": "E-03", "body": "Away calls · 5/10", "details_words": null, "url": null, "provenance": "live", "display_name": "Away calls", "rule_href": "/titles/e-03-away-calls/" } ], "history": [] }, "retro": null, "late": null, "price_vs_market": null, "record_summary": { "contract_version": "1", "entity_type": "person", "entity_words": "Individual author", "source": { "name": "sportsmole.co.uk", "url": "https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/real-sociedad/preview/real-sociedad-vs-rayo-vallecano-prediction-team-news-lineups_608650.html" }, "observed_from": "2026-09-25", "observed_to": "2026-11-07", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "state": "settled", "series_code": "market_price", "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price", "restored": false, "headline_kind": "live_snapshot", "headline_part": "live", "settled_picks": 4, "matches": 4, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": 70899, "staked_hundredths": 40000, "return_percent": "177.25", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "period_from": "2026-10-11", "period_to": "2026-10-27", "status": "calculated", "method_version": "2.2", "short_history": true, "reason": null, "reasons": [], "sentence": "Forecast Record recorded 4 settled live picks by Ben Sully before kick-off across 4 matches between 11 and 27 October 2026. Won 3 of 4 settled live picks at our recorded market prices. Of the 54 predictions we hold for Ben Sully, 43 are linked to matches: 43 were recorded by us before kick-off. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "numbers": [ { "label": "Settled live picks", "value": "4", "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick", "note": null }, { "label": "Matches", "value": "4", "anchor": "/methodology/#match", "note": null }, { "label": "Net result", "value": "+708.99 points", "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement", "note": "100 points per pick" }, { "label": "Return at our recorded market price", "value": "+177.2%", "anchor": "/methodology/#roi", "note": null } ], "limitations": [ "This page combines Ben Sully across 2 platforms. The record above counts each prediction once, even when the same pick (match, market and selection) appeared on more than one platform; each platform keeps its own total under “Where Ben Sully publishes”." ], "other_series": [], "return_over_time": [], "return_over_time_parts": { "live": { "part": "live", "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "x_axis": "match_date", "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.", "settled_picks": 4, "matches": 4, "match_dates": 2, "period_from": "2026-10-11", "period_to": "2026-10-27", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "final_points_hundredths": 70899, "low": { "date": "2026-10-11", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 899, "after_picks": 3 }, "high": { "date": "2026-10-27", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 70899, "after_picks": 4 }, "line_drawn": false, "steps": [ { "date": "2026-10-11", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 899, "n": 3, "picks": 3 }, { "date": "2026-10-27", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 70899, "n": 4, "picks": 1 } ] }, "archived": null }, "author_response": null, "cite": { "text": "Forecast Record recorded 4 settled live picks by Ben Sully before kick-off across 4 matches between 11 and 27 October 2026. Won 3 of 4 settled live picks at our recorded market prices. Of the 54 predictions we hold for Ben Sully, 43 are linked to matches: 43 were recorded by us before kick-off. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/ben-sully/", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "2.2" }, "origin": { "contract_version": "1", "predictions": 54, "under_review": 0, "no_match_linked": 11, "proven_predictions": 43, "proven_checked": 39, "proven_measured": 38, "proven_dates": 21, "parts": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.", "predictions": 43, "checked": 39, "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "series_code": "market_price", "main": { "settled_picks": 4, "void": 0, "matches": 4, "net_points_hundredths": 70899, "staked_hundredths": 40000, "return_percent": "177.25", "interval_low": null, "interval_high": null, "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval", "period_from": "2026-10-11", "period_to": "2026-10-27", "method_version": "2.2", "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0", "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.0", "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 0 }, "same_picks": [ { "price": "Closing price", "series_code": "closing_live", "picks": 3, "return_main_percent": "3.00", "return_other_percent": "6.75", "settled_excluding_void": 3, "net_main_points_hundredths": 899, "net_other_points_hundredths": 2024, "period_from": "2026-10-11", "period_to": "2026-10-11" } ], "score": { "score_forecasts": 34, "exact_hits": 5, "exact_rate": 14.7, "outcome_checked": 34, "outcome_hits": 15, "outcome_rate": 44.1, "baseline_matches": 25, "baseline_distinct_matches": 25, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 11, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": 44.0, "favourite_hits": 14, "favourite_rate": 56.0, "price_basis": "our pre-match snapshot", "pending": 4, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [ "Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.", "5 of 34 score forecasts named the exact score (14.7%).", "The result implied by the named score was right in 11 of 25 matches; the market favourite was right in 14 of the same 25 matches.", "A pre-match market favourite is known for 25 of 34 forecasts; the comparison uses only those.", "The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest price in our own odds snapshot taken before kick-off.", "The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win)." ] }, "eligible": { "checked": 39, "priced": 4 }, "accuracy": { "picks": 4, "won": 3, "won_percent": "75.0", "implied_percent": "45.3", "left_out": 0, "by_market": [ { "market": "Match result", "won": 2, "picks": 3, "implied_percent": "56.3" }, { "market": "Correct score", "won": 1, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "12.5" } ] }, "reviewed_after": { "predictions": 3, "right": 0, "wrong": 3, "other": 0 } }, { "code": "archived", "title": "Archived before kick-off", "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.", "predictions": 0, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null }, { "code": "found_after", "title": "Found after the match", "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.", "predictions": 0, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null } ] }, "live_alongside": null, "headline_record_ids": [ "n-7ddd191f142a87b81e4ed16c", "n-bd9ed2e853bff00db70b9b48", "n-bec6b2e7fb8488818b13e279", "n-d8a242e8e84ca30f1e85c9d3" ], "interval_low": null, "interval_high": null, "caption": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price · 100 points per pick · 11–27 October 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under method v2.2", "record_from": "2026-09-25", "record_to": "2026-11-07" }, "recorded_picks": [ { "record_id": "n-bec6b2e7fb8488818b13e279", "url": 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"2026-11-05T17:09:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-11-05T18:10:22.456Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-a745f63ae199dd0993a196a0", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "We say: Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Real Sociedad", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-11-01T00:10:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-11-01T01:10:12.898Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-c27c0ef256f81fe7a66b3eba", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "We say: Manchester City Women 3-1 Paris Saint-Germain Women", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-27T23:44:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-28T00:10:16.103Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-cfce4d66a916f754c0365d86", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "We say: Manchester City Women 3-1 Paris Saint-Germain Women", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-27T23:44:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-28T23:45:44.675Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": "Sports Mole, RSS feed", "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-99bdde5e8fdb692770da8b5a", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "We say: Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Getafe", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-24T23:10:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-25T00:26:00.585Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-ae2186ebb95d108e3250e5fb", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "We say: Derby County 1-1 Stoke City", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "ambiguous", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-15T22:27:36.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-15T23:09:52.867Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-8733b554e2b20a5159d5100e", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "we think the hosts will ease to all three points on Tuesday.", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "national-team match (Nations League, qualifiers, continental cups)", "reason_code": "outside_coverage", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-09-27T18:54:01.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-27T19:03:30.156Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": "Sports Mole, RSS feed", "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-2390843dd414ba974f6801e2", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "We say: Spain 3-1 Croatia", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "national-team match (Nations League, qualifiers, continental cups)", "reason_code": "outside_coverage", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-09-27T18:54:01.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-27T19:03:30.156Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": "Sports Mole, RSS feed", "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-cb3f2349e508beac964e2dc8", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "We say: Chelsea Women 1-1 Arsenal Women", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-09-25T22:26:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-25T23:07:14.142Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-50639d1a59145a64485c0907", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "We say: Liverpool Women 1-1 Everton Women", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-09-25T20:54:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-25T22:11:31.653Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "platform": null, "correction": null } ], "lead_time": { "contract_version": 1, "threshold_hours": 2.0, "picks": 43, "before_kickoff": 43, "after_kickoff": 0, "at_least_2h": 43, "share_2h_plus": 100.0, "median_hours": 38.8, "min_hours": 11.8, "max_hours": 55.6, "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off." }, "baseline": { "contract_version": 1, "series_code": "market_price", "rule": "recorded-line-1.0", "state": "settled", "picks": 29, "settled_picks_all": 33, "excluded": { "market_without_favourite": 0, "no_recorded_line": 4, "favourite_not_settled": 0 }, "staked_hundredths": 290000, "author_net_hundredths": -4132, "favourite_net_hundredths": -6950, "difference_hundredths": 2818, "author_return_percent": -1.42, "favourite_return_percent": -2.4, "author_hit_rate": 48.3, "favourite_hit_rate": 55.2, "picked_favourite_share": 55.2, "by_market": [ { "market_code": "1x2", "picks": 29, "staked_hundredths": 290000, "author_net_hundredths": -4132, "favourite_net_hundredths": -6950, "author_hits": 14, "favourite_hits": 16, "picked_favourite": 16, "author_return_percent": -1.42, "favourite_return_percent": -2.4 } ], "return_over_time": [ { "kickoff": "2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 220, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 220 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 6220, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 6220 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -3780, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -3780 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -13780, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -13780 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-11T14:15:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -7881, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -7881 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-11T14:15:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -1982, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -1982 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 3018, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 3018 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 8018, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 8018 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 33018, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -1982 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 56018, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -11982 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-14T18:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 72518, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -21982 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 62518, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -31982 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 52518, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -20982 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 42518, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -30982 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 32518, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -40982 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 46518, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -26982 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 36518, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -14982 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-25T15:15:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 61518, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -24982 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-25T17:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 67332, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -19168 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-25T20:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 57332, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -29168 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-26T20:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 47332, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -20077 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-27T19:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 53868, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -13541 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-30T20:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 43868, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 459 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-01T15:15:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 45868, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 2459 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-01T17:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 35868, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -7541 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-02T20:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 25868, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 3959 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-04T19:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 15868, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -6041 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-05T17:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 5868, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 3050 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-07T12:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -4132, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -6950 } ], "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out." }, "pagination": { "per_page": 20, "total": 54, "pages": 4, "page_urls": [ "/authors/ben-sully/", "/authors/ben-sully/picks/2/", "/authors/ben-sully/picks/3/", "/authors/ben-sully/picks/4/" ], "groups": { "settled": 4, "pending": 0, "excluded": 50 }, "continuation": "by_time", "page": 1, "first": 1, "last": 20, "author_url": "/authors/ben-sully/", "current": false }, "title_tag": "Ben Sully Predictions: Verified Record, Results and Sources", "calculator": null, "person": { "person_id": "o-45ceaa0bd8569c02e836dc68", "type_code": "individual", "name_shown": "Ben Sully", "main_entity": "e-45ceaa0bd8569c02e836dc68", "identity": { "status": "not_verified", "is_verified": false, "when": null, "source_list": [] }, "platform_list": [ { "entity_ref": "e-45ceaa0bd8569c02e836dc68", "medium": "Sports Mole", "channel": "RSS feed", "domain": "sportsmole.co.uk", "source_info": "sports-mole", "byline": "Ben Sully", "url": "/sources/sports-mole/", "summary": { "statements": 519, "predictions": 51, "settled_picks": 4, "headline_kind": "live_snapshot", "return_percent": 177.25, "headline_part": "live", "period_from": "2026-09-25", "period_to": "2026-11-07" } }, { "entity_ref": "e-9ee165e4334512bf2398f97c", "medium": "Sports Mole", "channel": "RSS feed", "domain": "sportsmole.co.uk", "source_info": "sports-mole", "byline": "Ben Sully", "url": null, "summary": { "statements": 25, "predictions": 7, "settled_picks": 0, "headline_kind": null, "return_percent": null, "headline_part": null, "period_from": "2026-09-27", "period_to": "2026-11-07" } } ], "previously": [], "trust_tier": "tracked" }, "data_revision": { "data_version": "2026-10-28.1", "updated": "2026-10-28", "current_release": "2026-11-07.2", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "2.2", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "series_code": "market_price", "sample": { "settled_picks": 4, "matches": 4, "void": 0, "period_from": "2026-10-11", "period_to": "2026-10-27", "composition_hash": "bac0c4553ee94c11a02061c8b004b4bb495f2f889fb104cb23f9433d09bf9020" }, "changes_url": "#changes", "corrections_url": "/corrections/" }, "number_changes": [ { "id": "zc-df4840de66d117b56e00", "at": "2026-10-28T01:24:12.367Z", "data_version": "2026-10-28.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-27.3", "url": "/authors/ben-sully/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-11.7", "return_percent": "3.00", "settled_picks": 3, "matches": 3, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "df5b8da2236321d53da2863ae9ba37c5f321bac74a49da146af817cdb0cd581b", "text": "+8.99 points on 3 settled picks across 3 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-28.1", "return_percent": "177.25", "settled_picks": 4, "matches": 4, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "bac0c4553ee94c11a02061c8b004b4bb495f2f889fb104cb23f9433d09bf9020", "text": "+708.99 points on 4 settled picks across 4 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-9de9898ebbf4d7040a50", "at": "2026-10-11T20:14:51.236Z", "data_version": "2026-10-11.7", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-11.6", "url": "/authors/ben-sully/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-11.6", "return_percent": "-25.00", "settled_picks": 2, "matches": 2, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "9ec0c9acf42f2e3c938b8f972b4e275f0b088629ed049e7583fd4dbadeb045d7", "text": "−50.00 points on 2 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-11.7", "return_percent": "3.00", "settled_picks": 3, "matches": 3, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "df5b8da2236321d53da2863ae9ba37c5f321bac74a49da146af817cdb0cd581b", "text": "+8.99 points on 3 settled picks across 3 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-3507dfead4a708064457", "at": "2026-10-11T19:38:24.634Z", "data_version": "2026-10-11.6", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-11.5", "url": "/authors/ben-sully/", "category": "method_changed", "category_words": "Method changed", "before": null, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-11.6", "return_percent": "-25.00", "settled_picks": 2, "matches": 2, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "9ec0c9acf42f2e3c938b8f972b4e275f0b088629ed049e7583fd4dbadeb045d7", "text": "−50.00 points on 2 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Method 2.2 (11 October 2026): the live market price of a pick is now the price at the moment we first recorded it (median of bookmakers in our price feed, quote no older than 5 minutes; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, before kick-off), not the price when our checks admitted it. Picks recorded before kick-off but checked after it are now settled the same way; picks with no price at that moment have no return. 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