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date as stated by the source", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-09-18T15:40:20.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-09-18T15:40:20.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-28T23:41:11.600Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "found_after_match", "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null } ], "standing": null, "retro": null, "late": null, "price_vs_market": null, "record_summary": { "contract_version": "1", "entity_type": "person", "entity_words": "Individual author", "source": { "name": "si.com", "url": "https://www.si.com/soccer/mls-predictions-el-trafico-matchday-32" }, "observed_from": "2026-09-29", "observed_to": "2026-10-23", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "state": "none", "series_code": null, "series": null, "restored": false, "headline_kind": null, "headline_part": null, "settled_picks": 0, "matches": 0, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": null, "staked_hundredths": null, "return_percent": null, "stake_per_pick_hundredths": null, "period_from": null, "period_to": null, "status": "unknown", "method_version": null, "short_history": true, "reason": "31 predictions were read after the match, from archived pages; 24 predictions are unstaked; 12 predictions are a score forecast without a price and 14 predictions for other reasons", "reasons": [ { "code": "after_match", "predictions": 31, "words": "read after the match" }, { "code": "ambiguous", "predictions": 24, "words": "unstaked" }, { "code": "score_without_price", "predictions": 12, "words": "score forecast without a price" }, { "code": "not_supported", "predictions": 9, "words": "other market" }, { "code": "not_checked", "predictions": 3, "words": "unstaked" }, { "code": "no_match", "predictions": 2, "words": "other match" } ], "sentence": "Forecast Record has recorded 137 statements by Ben Steiner, including 81 predictions. Of the 81 predictions we hold for Ben Steiner, 70 are linked to matches: 39 were recorded by us before kick-off and 31 first found after the match. The statements are listed below; as of 7 November 2026.", "numbers": [ { "label": "Statements", "value": "137", "anchor": "/methodology/#statement", "note": null }, { "label": "Predictions", "value": "81", "anchor": "/methodology/#prediction", "note": null } ], "limitations": [], "other_series": [], "return_over_time": [], "return_over_time_parts": { "live": null, "archived": null }, "author_response": null, "cite": { "text": "Forecast Record has recorded 137 statements by Ben Steiner, including 81 predictions. Of the 81 predictions we hold for Ben Steiner, 70 are linked to matches: 39 were recorded by us before kick-off and 31 first found after the match. The statements are listed below; as of 7 November 2026.", "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/ben-steiner/", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": null }, "origin": { "contract_version": "1", "predictions": 81, "under_review": 0, "no_match_linked": 11, "proven_predictions": 39, "proven_checked": 39, "proven_measured": 36, "proven_dates": 6, "parts": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.", "predictions": 39, "checked": 39, "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "series_code": "market_price", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 36, "exact_hits": 1, "exact_rate": 2.8, "outcome_checked": 36, "outcome_hits": 14, "outcome_rate": 38.9, "baseline_matches": 16, "baseline_distinct_matches": 16, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 4, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": 25.0, "favourite_hits": 8, "favourite_rate": 50.0, "price_basis": "our pre-match snapshot", "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [ "Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.", "1 of 36 score forecasts named the exact score (2.8%).", "The result implied by the named score was right in 4 of 16 matches; the market favourite was right in 8 of the same 16 matches.", "A pre-match market favourite is known for 16 of 36 forecasts; the comparison uses only those.", "The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest price in our own odds snapshot taken before kick-off.", "The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win)." ] }, "eligible": { "checked": 39, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null, "reviewed_after": { "predictions": 27, "right": 1, "wrong": 26, "other": 0 } }, { "code": "archived", "title": "Archived before kick-off", "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.", "predictions": 0, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null }, { "code": "found_after", "title": "Found after the match", "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.", "predictions": 31, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null } ] }, "live_alongside": null, "headline_record_ids": [], "caption": "Recorded statements and predictions · as of 7 November 2026", "record_from": "2026-09-18", "record_to": "2026-10-25" }, "recorded_picks": [ { "record_id": "n-c92dbefc0f4ca04ca1cba36a", "url": "/authors/ben-steiner/picks/5/#pick-n-c92dbefc0f4ca04ca1cba36a", "match": "Portland Timbers v Charlotte FC", "match_url": "/football/matches/portland-timbers-vs-charlotte-fc-2026-10-25/", "kickoff": "2026-10-25T02:30:00.000Z", "competition": "MLS", "lead_hours": 34.2, "market_code": "correct_score_market", "author_said": "Correct score: Portland Timbers 1-1 Charlotte FC", "quote": null, "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": "Lost", "final_score": "3-2", "reason": "score forecast 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"speaker": "Ben Steiner", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "4f82fcc3973fd6c899379a5c45f774b3191a479389a0ee034e715d10d339c172", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-23T16:00:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-23T16:17:19.298Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "score_forecast", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": "s-d0aec5fe77a6", "display_name": "Portland Timbers — Charlotte FC", "competition_name": "MLS", "starts_at": "2026-10-25T02:30:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/portland-timbers-vs-charlotte-fc-2026-10-25/", "scoreline": "3-2", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "Correct score", "outcome_label": "Portland Timbers 1-1 Charlotte FC", "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": "loss", "simulation_change_hundredths": null, 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null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Did not match: the final score was Portland Timbers 3-2 Charlotte FC." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "e2db88f46043093962fbbbedf08ea119601bd90b51cdb1422919288911f44541", "series_key": "derived_series", "series_label": "Forecast Record reconstruction from the predicted score", "derived": true, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": false, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "choice": "draw", "decimal_odds": "4.0000", "odds_role": "market_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "loss", "result_words": "Lost", "change_hundredths": -10000, "executed_at": "2026-10-24T16:37:58.864Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": false, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": { "material_author": "Ben Steiner", "publisher": "si.com", "forecaster": "Ben Steiner", "forecaster_named_in_text": false, "basis": null, "status": "not_named", "status_words": "Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://www.si.com/soccer/mls-predictions-el-trafico-matchday-32", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null, "choice_words": "Portland Timbers 1-1 Charlotte FC" } }, { "record_id": "n-ee0eb79913bbb6c9998ed3ca", "url": "/authors/ben-steiner/picks/5/#pick-n-ee0eb79913bbb6c9998ed3ca", "match": "Real Salt Lake v St.Louis City", "match_url": "/football/matches/real-salt-lake-vs-st-louis-city-2026-10-25/", "kickoff": "2026-10-25T01:30:00.000Z", "competition": "MLS", "lead_hours": 33.2, "market_code": "correct_score_market", "author_said": "Correct score: Real Salt Lake 1-3 St.Louis City", "quote": null, "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": "Lost", "final_score": "3-0", "reason": "score forecast without a price, graded against the final score", "reason_code": "score_without_price", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-23T16:00:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-23T16:17:19.298Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": { "outcome": "1", "price": "2.3850", "result": "Won", "points_hundredths": 13850, "picked_favourite": false }, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-ee0eb79913bbb6c9998ed3ca", "quote_text": "Real Salt Lake vs. St. Louis CITY SC\n\n1–3", "fragment_from": 12409, "fragment_to": 12450, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.si.com/soccer/mls-predictions-el-trafico-matchday-32", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Ben Steiner", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "4f82fcc3973fd6c899379a5c45f774b3191a479389a0ee034e715d10d339c172", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-23T16:00:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-23T16:17:19.298Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "score_forecast", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": "s-1487a0a714ba", "display_name": "Real Salt Lake — St.Louis City", "competition_name": "MLS", "starts_at": "2026-10-25T01:30:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/real-salt-lake-vs-st-louis-city-2026-10-25/", "scoreline": "3-0", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "Correct score", "outcome_label": "Real Salt Lake 1-3 St.Louis City", "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": "loss", "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-23T16:00:00.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-10-23T16:00:00.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-23T16:17:19.298Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", "origin_detail": null, "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": { "market_label": "Correct score", "choice": "Real Salt Lake 1-3 St.Louis City", "author_odds": null, "market_key": "correct_score_market", "choice_key": "1-3", "period": "match", "line": null, "subject": "goals_total", "in_words": "Correct score: Real Salt Lake 1-3 St.Louis City" }, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": "loss", "scoreline": "3-0", "data_status": "measured", "cause": null, "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "Did not match: the final score was Real Salt Lake 3-0 St.Louis City." }, "settlements": [ { "operation_id": "eb835c51b45593ed0471af9923c77c5c9008fe15967e82e0c43753781b269a37", "series_key": "derived_series", "series_label": "Forecast Record reconstruction from the predicted score", "derived": true, "site_simulation": true, "author_words": false, "market_label": "1X2, match result", "choice": "St.Louis City", "decimal_odds": "2.6000", "odds_role": "market_price", "stake_hundredths": 10000, "status": "confirmed", "status_text": "Executed", "result": "loss", "result_words": "Lost", "change_hundredths": -10000, "executed_at": "2026-10-24T16:37:58.548Z", "methodology_version": "2.2", "on_claim_market": false, "replaced": false } ], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": { "material_author": "Ben Steiner", "publisher": "si.com", "forecaster": "Ben Steiner", "forecaster_named_in_text": 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