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false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-11-07T14:59:01.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-11-07T14:59:01.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-07T15:01:17.493Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-7fcea4fc2a6cd9f99f22ca8e", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-7fcea4fc2a6cd9f99f22ca8e", "quote_text": "Brighton spillerne kunne godt have lidt trætte stænger efter de har spillet europæisk i torsdags.", "fragment_from": 2118, "fragment_to": 2215, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.betxpert.com/tips/brighton-brentford-08-11-2026", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Bauns", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "622e25ac251cfc6ddf1f172953429bccabe49846b377c483eace103a23301221", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-11-06T11:42:57.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-06T11:49:22.703Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "opinion", "status": "ambiguous", "cause": "", "cause_code": "ambiguous", "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, 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"/authors/bauns/picks/4/#pick-n-a5ecb996f406b43725a4cbb5", "quote_text": "Brighton over 0,5 mål + Brentford under 1,5 mål\n\n8 Nov 2026 15:00\n1.83", "fragment_from": 160, "fragment_to": 230, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.betxpert.com/tips/brighton-brentford-08-11-2026", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Bauns", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "622e25ac251cfc6ddf1f172953429bccabe49846b377c483eace103a23301221", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-11-06T11:42:57.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-06T11:49:22.703Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "priced", "status": "not_supported", "cause": "", "cause_code": "not_supported", "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-11-06T11:42:57.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-11-06T11:42:57.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-06T11:49:22.703Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { 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"Attributed by the byline", "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.", "evidence_fragment": null, "material_url": "https://www.betxpert.com/tips/arsenal-everton-24-10-2026", "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false, "verdict_by": null, "verdict_line": null }, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-61f0336b6367224d13b4c258", "url": "/authors/bauns/picks/2/#pick-n-61f0336b6367224d13b4c258", "quote_text": "Lillestrøm - Real Sociedad: Begge hold scorer + O/U 4,5 mål: Ja + Under\n\n22 Oct 2026 21:00\n2.50", "fragment_from": 144, "fragment_to": 239, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.betxpert.com/tips/lillestrom-real-sociedad-22-10-2026", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Bauns", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "a098740b9f052dc84e5a3278d73c40681a60f73350fea567b8558601db9a8823", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-22T09:28:29.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-22T09:29:28.610Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "priced", "status": "not_supported", "cause": "", "cause_code": "not_supported", "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-22T09:28:29.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-10-22T09:28:29.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-22T09:29:28.610Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "prediction", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-5c00d2a6bb0daae163042a78", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-5c00d2a6bb0daae163042a78", "quote_text": "Forventede startopstillinger:\n\n\n\nBesiktas: Nubel; Murillo, Agbadou, Topcu, Yilmaz;, Ozcan, Ndini, Olaitan", "fragment_from": 2360, "fragment_to": 2465, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.betxpert.com/tips/besiktas-crystal-palace-22-10-2026", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Bauns", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "eba3ed730a0b09ed6d2dd1b512d330b2d9f36dab2e39413670c1366a0fd11c94", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-10-22T09:17:42.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-22T09:29:27.616Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "ambiguous", "cause": "", "cause_code": "ambiguous", "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-10-22T09:17:42.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-10-22T09:17:42.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-10-22T09:29:27.616Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "no_match_linked", "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null } ], "excluded_from_feed": { "ads": 9, "service": 1, "ruleset_version": "3" }, "standing": null, "retro": null, "late": null, "price_vs_market": { "contract_version": "1", "threshold_percent": "5", "rows": [ { "basis": "snapshot", "basis_words": "our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off)", "basis_short": "Our market price when we first recorded the pick", "compared": 13, "above": 2, "above_share_percent": "15.4", "below": 0, "within": 11, "median_difference_percent": "1.3", "not_comparable": 0, "disputed": 0, "status": "calculated" } ], "examples": [ { "url": "/authors/bauns/picks/4/#pick-n-f8a48a0204b198cf2aba328f", "basis": "snapshot", "stated": "1.91", "market": "1.72", "difference_percent": "11.0" }, { "url": "/authors/bauns/picks/2/#pick-n-670b3cc10d73df91a11714bb", "basis": "snapshot", "stated": "2.40", "market": "2.20", "difference_percent": "9.1" } ], "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way." }, "record_summary": { "contract_version": "1", "entity_type": "person", "entity_words": "Individual author", "source": { "name": "betxpert.com", "url": "https://www.betxpert.com/tips/the-mongolz-mouz-08-11-2026" }, "observed_from": "2026-10-11", "observed_to": "2026-11-07", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "state": "settled", "series_code": "market_price", "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price", "restored": false, "headline_kind": "live_snapshot", "headline_part": "live", "settled_picks": 14, "matches": 14, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -29712, "staked_hundredths": 140000, "return_percent": "-21.22", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "period_from": "2026-10-13", "period_to": "2026-11-07", "status": "calculated", "method_version": "2.2", "short_history": true, "reason": null, "reasons": [], "sentence": "Forecast Record recorded 14 settled live picks by Bauns before kick-off across 14 matches between 13 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −21.2% on the total staked. Of the 56 predictions we hold for Bauns, 22 are linked to matches: 21 were recorded by us before kick-off and 1 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "numbers": [ { "label": "Settled live picks", "value": "14", "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick", "note": null }, { "label": "Matches", "value": "14", "anchor": "/methodology/#match", "note": null }, { "label": "Net result", "value": "−297.12 points", "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement", "note": "100 points per pick" }, { "label": "Return at our recorded market price", "value": "−21.2%", "anchor": "/methodology/#roi", "note": "95% interval −67.4% to +28.6%" } ], "limitations": [], "other_series": [], "return_over_time": [ { "date": "2026-10-13", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 5988, "n": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -4012, "n": 2 }, { "date": "2026-10-22", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -9512, "n": 4 }, { "date": "2026-10-24", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 2488, "n": 5 }, { "date": "2026-11-01", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -7512, "n": 6 }, { "date": "2026-11-03", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -17512, "n": 7 }, { "date": "2026-11-04", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -6912, "n": 10 }, { "date": "2026-11-05", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -36912, "n": 13 }, { "date": "2026-11-07", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -29712, "n": 14 } ], "return_over_time_parts": { "live": { "part": "live", "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "x_axis": "match_date", "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.", "settled_picks": 14, "matches": 14, "match_dates": 9, "period_from": "2026-10-13", "period_to": "2026-11-07", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "final_points_hundredths": -29712, "low": { "date": "2026-11-05", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -36912, "after_picks": 13 }, "high": { "date": "2026-10-13", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 5988, "after_picks": 1 }, "line_drawn": true, "steps": [ { "date": "2026-10-13", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 5988, "n": 1, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -4012, "n": 2, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-22", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -9512, "n": 4, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2026-10-24", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 2488, "n": 5, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-11-01", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -7512, "n": 6, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-11-03", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -17512, "n": 7, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-11-04", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -6912, "n": 10, "picks": 3 }, { "date": "2026-11-05", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -36912, "n": 13, "picks": 3 }, { "date": "2026-11-07", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -29712, "n": 14, "picks": 1 } ] }, "archived": null }, "author_response": null, "cite": { "text": "Forecast Record recorded 14 settled live picks by Bauns before kick-off across 14 matches between 13 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −21.2% on the total staked. Of the 56 predictions we hold for Bauns, 22 are linked to matches: 21 were recorded by us before kick-off and 1 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/bauns/", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "2.2" }, "origin": { "contract_version": "1", "predictions": 56, "under_review": 0, "no_match_linked": 34, "proven_predictions": 21, "proven_checked": 21, "proven_measured": 14, "proven_dates": 14, "parts": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.", "predictions": 21, "checked": 21, "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "series_code": "market_price", "main": { "settled_picks": 14, "void": 0, "matches": 14, "net_points_hundredths": -29712, "staked_hundredths": 140000, "return_percent": "-21.22", "interval_low": "-67.36", "interval_high": "28.55", "interval_note": null, "period_from": "2026-10-13", "period_to": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "2.2", "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0", "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.7", "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 3 }, "same_picks": [ { "price": "Author-quoted price", "series_code": "author_price", "picks": 13, "return_main_percent": "-15.16", "return_other_percent": "-11.38", "settled_excluding_void": 13, "net_main_points_hundredths": -19712, "net_other_points_hundredths": -14800, "period_from": "2026-10-13", "period_to": "2026-11-07" }, { "price": "Closing price", "series_code": "closing_live", "picks": 5, "return_main_percent": "-5.62", "return_other_percent": "-13.09", "settled_excluding_void": 5, "net_main_points_hundredths": -2812, "net_other_points_hundredths": -6544, "period_from": "2026-10-13", "period_to": "2026-11-05" } ], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 21, "priced": 14 }, "accuracy": { "picks": 14, "won": 6, "won_percent": "42.9", "implied_percent": "52.9", "left_out": 0, "by_market": [ { "market": "Result and both teams to score", "won": 3, "picks": 6, "implied_percent": "44.4" }, { "market": "Match result", "won": 0, "picks": 4, "implied_percent": "54.2" }, { "market": "Over/under goals", "won": 3, "picks": 3, "implied_percent": "63.8" }, { "market": "Both teams to score", "won": 0, "picks": 1, "implied_percent": "66.7" } ] }, "reviewed_after": { "predictions": 5, "right": 2, "wrong": 3, "other": 0 } }, { "code": "archived", "title": "Archived before kick-off", "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.", "predictions": 0, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null }, { "code": "found_after", "title": "Found after the match", "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.", "predictions": 1, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null } ] }, "live_alongside": null, "headline_record_ids": [ "n-07b0bac3dc93fdf7fe5bbcf9", "n-197e73969dc035f88100c157", "n-2977067e4f78de5bbe8d46f9", "n-31278c954d3f2d624e682288", "n-4e442d3bea974cc36977263b", "n-670b3cc10d73df91a11714bb", "n-721a50cb6ab202e44593eb5d", "n-90b46fdd9c68e18dcdeaba1c", "n-91b30a566f9fada901730670", "n-965c553b29dd015b11405fbf", "n-9781a4ba66c28627a48d24d2", "n-b2bd2ec73d7f31a3d7abed9d", "n-edf79eabcf3e09a204f3386b", "n-f8a48a0204b198cf2aba328f" ], "interval_low": "-67.36", "interval_high": "28.55", "caption": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price · 100 points per pick · 13 October – 7 November 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under method v2.2", "record_from": "2026-10-11", "record_to": "2026-11-07" }, "recorded_picks": [ { "record_id": "n-f8a48a0204b198cf2aba328f", "url": "/authors/bauns/picks/4/#pick-n-f8a48a0204b198cf2aba328f", "match": "Arsenal v Hull City", "match_url": "/football/matches/arsenal-vs-hull-city-2026-11-07/", "kickoff": "2026-11-07T15:00:00.000Z", "competition": "Premier League", "lead_hours": 27.8, "market_code": "both_teams_score_and_result", "author_said": "Match result and both teams to score: Arsenal win, both teams to score: no at 1.91", "quote": null, "group": "settled", "outcome": "Won", "claim_outcome": "Won", "final_score": "1-0", "reason": null, "reason_code": null, "points_hundredths": 7200, "series_code": "market_price", "series_short": "odds snapshot", "author_price": "1.91", "settled_price": "1.7200", "published_at": "2026-11-06T11:01:17.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-11-06T11:09:23.482Z", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "record_part": "live", "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off", "in_headline": true, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null, "evidence": { "observation_id": "n-f8a48a0204b198cf2aba328f", "quote_text": "Arsenal - Hull: 1X2 + Begge hold scorer: 1 + Nej\n\n7 Nov 2026 16:00\n1.91", "fragment_from": 132, "fragment_to": 203, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.betxpert.com/tips/arsenal-hull-07-11-2026", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Bauns", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "242186cb89dc50814e89a38bc4ff4db9872908eb0874dfcb050092c0825a0261", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2026-11-06T11:01:17.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-06T11:09:23.482Z", "executed_at": "2026-11-06T11:10:25.171Z", "statement_class": "priced", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": { "event_id": "s-db14ccc3b614", "display_name": "Arsenal — Hull City", "competition_name": "Premier League", "starts_at": "2026-11-07T15:00:00.000Z", "url": "/football/matches/arsenal-vs-hull-city-2026-11-07/", "scoreline": "1-0", "condition": "finished" }, "market_label": "Match result and both teams to score", "outcome_label": "Arsenal win, both teams to score: no", "odds_set": { "by_author": "1.91", "our_snapshot": "1.7200", "our_snapshot_at": "2026-11-06T11:07:46.713Z", "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot", "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": 10000, "result": "win", "simulation_change_hundredths": 7200, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": "ours", "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot", "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "recorded_pre_match", "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2026-11-06T11:01:17.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2026-11-06T11:01:17.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-11-06T11:09:23.482Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff", 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no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-aa9c1efa63ecf7ae54b1d417", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Real Betis - FC Porto: Begge hold scorer: Ja", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "ambiguous", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-14T07:17:39.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-14T07:19:27.455Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-ca9aff35c985b699380ccc1f", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Liverpool - Manchester City: Begge hold scorer + O/U 2,5 mål: Ja + Over\n\n11 Oct 2026 17:30\n1.78", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-10-09T16:24:05.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-11T02:10:30.961Z", "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement", "record_part": "unlinked", "record_part_words": "Without a match page", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-5193f2aece5ef6e9907293c0", "url": null, "match": null, "match_url": null, "kickoff": null, "competition": null, "lead_hours": null, "market_code": null, "author_said": null, "quote": "Slutter sidst: Hull\n\n30 May 2027 16:00\n2.00", "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": null, "final_score": null, "reason": "", "reason_code": "not_supported", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2026-08-17T10:14:06.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-10-11T02:30:14.215Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null } ], "lead_time": { "contract_version": 1, "threshold_hours": 2.0, "picks": 21, "before_kickoff": 21, "after_kickoff": 0, "at_least_2h": 21, "share_2h_plus": 100.0, "median_hours": 8.6, "min_hours": 2.8, "max_hours": 31.3, "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off." }, "baseline": { "contract_version": 1, "series_code": "market_price", "rule": "recorded-line-1.0", "state": "settled", "picks": 3, "settled_picks_all": 14, "excluded": { "market_without_favourite": 6, "no_recorded_line": 5, "favourite_not_settled": 0 }, "staked_hundredths": 30000, "author_net_hundredths": -15500, "favourite_net_hundredths": -15500, "difference_hundredths": 0, "author_return_percent": -51.67, "favourite_return_percent": -51.67, "author_hit_rate": 33.3, "favourite_hit_rate": 33.3, "picked_favourite_share": 100.0, "by_market": [ { "market_code": "1x2", "picks": 2, "staked_hundredths": 20000, "author_net_hundredths": -20000, "favourite_net_hundredths": -20000, "author_hits": 0, "favourite_hits": 0, "picked_favourite": 2, "author_return_percent": -100.0, "favourite_return_percent": -100.0 }, { "market_code": "total", "picks": 1, "staked_hundredths": 10000, "author_net_hundredths": 4500, "favourite_net_hundredths": 4500, "author_hits": 1, "favourite_hits": 1, "picked_favourite": 1, "author_return_percent": 45.0, "favourite_return_percent": 45.0 } ], "return_over_time": [ { "kickoff": "2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 4500, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 4500 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -5500, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -5500 }, { "kickoff": "2026-11-05T20:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -15500, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -15500 } ], "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out." }, "pagination": { "per_page": 20, "total": 56, "pages": 4, "page_urls": [ "/authors/bauns/", "/authors/bauns/picks/2/", "/authors/bauns/picks/3/", "/authors/bauns/picks/4/" ], "groups": { "settled": 14, "pending": 0, "excluded": 42 }, "continuation": "by_time", "page": 1, "first": 1, "last": 20, "author_url": "/authors/bauns/", "current": false }, "title_tag": "Bauns Predictions: Verified Record, Results and Sources", "calculator": null, "person": { "person_id": "o-0c9e6c76d2c318837aeab83e", "type_code": "individual", "name_shown": "Bauns", "main_entity": "e-0c9e6c76d2c318837aeab83e", "identity": { "status": "not_verified", "is_verified": false, "when": null, "source_list": [] }, "platform_list": [ { "entity_ref": "e-0c9e6c76d2c318837aeab83e", "medium": "BetXpert", "channel": "section pages", "domain": "betxpert.com", "source_info": null, "byline": "Bauns", "url": null, "summary": { "statements": 150, "predictions": 56, "settled_picks": 14, "headline_kind": "live_snapshot", "return_percent": -21.22, "headline_part": "live", "period_from": "2026-10-11", "period_to": "2026-11-07" } } ], "previously": [], "trust_tier": "probation" }, "data_revision": { "data_version": "2026-11-07.2", "updated": "2026-11-07", "current_release": "2026-11-07.2", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "2.2", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "series_code": "market_price", "sample": { "settled_picks": 14, "matches": 14, "void": 0, "period_from": "2026-10-13", "period_to": "2026-11-07", "composition_hash": "422c381be8238efa9b7061e01944d9c1ffb09f5875be4143e96250e533224ea5" }, "changes_url": "#changes", "corrections_url": "/corrections/" }, "number_changes": [ { "id": "zc-e3d104cc0994daa3ce1d", "at": "2026-11-07T20:05:20.937Z", "data_version": "2026-11-07.2", "previous_data_version": "2026-11-07.1", "url": "/authors/bauns/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-11-06.1", "return_percent": "-28.39", "settled_picks": 13, "matches": 13, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "1ea79babd80f7c4287c61bd71ca4ec601ae0cde3b75b668f946f64f7d5c0f59a", "text": "−28.39% on 13 settled picks across 13 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-11-07.2", "return_percent": "-21.22", "settled_picks": 14, "matches": 14, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "422c381be8238efa9b7061e01944d9c1ffb09f5875be4143e96250e533224ea5", "text": "−21.22% on 14 settled picks across 14 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-3929b68f0b84fd43702b", "at": "2026-11-06T14:46:17.511Z", "data_version": "2026-11-06.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-11-05.3", "url": "/authors/bauns/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-11-05.1", "return_percent": "-6.91", "settled_picks": 10, "matches": 10, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "8eb36f8d5a2379bc328a042cf79b8f809a43f45db8f27e4f1dc5b7591d5a9f26", "text": "−6.91% on 10 settled picks across 10 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-11-06.1", "return_percent": "-28.39", "settled_picks": 13, "matches": 13, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "1ea79babd80f7c4287c61bd71ca4ec601ae0cde3b75b668f946f64f7d5c0f59a", "text": "−28.39% on 13 settled picks across 13 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture); also 2 new results.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 3, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-8b7830d95c0885d00d46", "at": "2026-11-05T05:43:48.128Z", "data_version": "2026-11-05.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-11-04.3", "url": "/authors/bauns/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-11-04.1", "return_percent": "-25.02", "settled_picks": 7, "matches": 7, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "6bd28d8dc0dae1c8fa673794be773cacc8665d95bfc577405ab71ba316d4e50c", "text": "−175.12 points on 7 settled picks across 7 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-11-05.1", "return_percent": "-6.91", "settled_picks": 10, "matches": 10, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "8eb36f8d5a2379bc328a042cf79b8f809a43f45db8f27e4f1dc5b7591d5a9f26", "text": "−6.91% on 10 settled picks across 10 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "3 new settled picks from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 3, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-1d424ed640767364925c", "at": "2026-11-04T03:35:56.412Z", "data_version": "2026-11-04.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-11-03.3", "url": "/authors/bauns/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-11-02.1", "return_percent": "-12.52", "settled_picks": 6, "matches": 6, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "ec52560a5c70b75aa581b91c421b8b5188dd947cd86ffea4cb5bfd07ad5dcb34", "text": "−75.12 points on 6 settled picks across 6 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-11-04.1", "return_percent": "-25.02", "settled_picks": 7, "matches": 7, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "6bd28d8dc0dae1c8fa673794be773cacc8665d95bfc577405ab71ba316d4e50c", "text": "−175.12 points on 7 settled picks across 7 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-bcaad95661149decac27", "at": "2026-11-02T01:08:19.111Z", "data_version": "2026-11-02.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-11-01.3", "url": "/authors/bauns/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-24.4", "return_percent": "4.98", "settled_picks": 5, "matches": 5, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "65e40b76170958e68cbcc688c948d578b8eed08e60da64c5e5cd4e923bfadf4c", "text": "+24.88 points on 5 settled picks across 5 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-11-02.1", "return_percent": "-12.52", "settled_picks": 6, "matches": 6, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "ec52560a5c70b75aa581b91c421b8b5188dd947cd86ffea4cb5bfd07ad5dcb34", "text": "−75.12 points on 6 settled picks across 6 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-48260005c5e850c0d457", "at": "2026-10-24T16:52:01.947Z", "data_version": "2026-10-24.4", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-24.3", "url": "/authors/bauns/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-24.1", "return_percent": "-23.78", "settled_picks": 4, "matches": 4, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "c5814df00c8d9d3b8af287c4a8c5288e769496f21d8f821b34fb2927a90d2fde", "text": "−95.12 points on 4 settled picks across 4 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-24.4", "return_percent": "4.98", "settled_picks": 5, "matches": 5, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "65e40b76170958e68cbcc688c948d578b8eed08e60da64c5e5cd4e923bfadf4c", "text": "+24.88 points on 5 settled picks across 5 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-d5d85ae0667451fe4c61", "at": "2026-10-24T01:51:11.728Z", "data_version": "2026-10-24.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-23.4", "url": "/authors/bauns/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-23.1", "return_percent": "-20.06", "settled_picks": 2, "matches": 2, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "c4c7321319aad73f64f1fef2f1a6ae0f3fe7413eece3d377849b06148f75fdf9", "text": "−40.12 points on 2 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-24.1", "return_percent": "-23.78", "settled_picks": 4, "matches": 4, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "c5814df00c8d9d3b8af287c4a8c5288e769496f21d8f821b34fb2927a90d2fde", "text": "−95.12 points on 4 settled picks across 4 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 2, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-644ec4fe05577cff4e3d", "at": "2026-10-23T01:17:07.717Z", "data_version": "2026-10-23.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-22.6", "url": "/authors/bauns/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-13.6", "return_percent": "59.88", "settled_picks": 1, "matches": 1, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "5b1d918a0a25a6ebaa165e28eaa70c300fb210ebe32d01923ac329b8395ee15a", "text": "+59.88 points on 1 settled pick across 1 match · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-23.1", "return_percent": "-20.06", "settled_picks": 2, "matches": 2, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "c4c7321319aad73f64f1fef2f1a6ae0f3fe7413eece3d377849b06148f75fdf9", "text": "−40.12 points on 2 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-6615961fb1948c4aa399", "at": "2026-10-13T21:34:28.953Z", "data_version": "2026-10-13.6", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-13.5", "url": "/authors/bauns/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": null, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-13.6", "return_percent": "59.88", "settled_picks": 1, "matches": 1, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "5b1d918a0a25a6ebaa165e28eaa70c300fb210ebe32d01923ac329b8395ee15a", "text": "+59.88 points on 1 settled pick across 1 match · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "First headline number for this record: 1 settled pick in the series “independent odds snapshot”.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null } ], "counts_by_slice": { "portions": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "settled_picks": 14, "total_check": true, "market_list": [ { "code_name": "both_teams_score_and_result", "in_words": "Result and both teams to score", "url": null, "settled_picks": 6, "won": 3, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": 3100, "return_percent": "5.2", "period_from": "2026-10-21", "period_to": "2026-11-07", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "2.37", "odds_from_author": 6, "odds_from_snapshot": 0 }, { "code_name": "1x2", "in_words": "Match result", "url": null, "settled_picks": 4, "won": 0, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -40000, "return_percent": "-100.0", 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